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The betting markets have yet to move on Farage’s claim that UKIP will hold balance of power at GE2015

April 24th, 2014

Farage’s achilles heel: UKIP’s the least liked & most disliked party

Mike Smithson

Ranked in top 33 most influential over 50s on Twitter





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LAB to win most votes moves into evens on the Ladbrokes Euro elections market

April 24th, 2014

The yellows are getting betting support on 3+ seats

My view of yesterday’s news about the breakaway anti-EU party at the Euro elections remains. Unless the official UKIP legal challenge succeeds I believe it will impact on its performance on May 22nd. The question is how much?

When I first saw the South West England ballot paper yesterday with the breakaway group at the top my reaction was that this referred to Farage’s party which was just describing itself awkwardly. It has a record of doing this as we saw in the London elections in 2012.

It was only on closer scrutiny of the form that I saw the real UKIP at the bottom of the ballot.

    If I was confused then my assumption is that other voters will also be to the detriment of Mr Farage.

Generally in UK elections you vote for an individual candidate and not a party and the names are listed alphabetically. It will be hard for voters to distinguish between the “two UKIPs” and the options at the top will sypohon off quite a number of UKIP votes. In the polling stations election officials are very limited in the guidance that they can give to voters.

This shouldn’t have taken UKIP by surprise. There had been reports over the past few weeks that something like this was going to happen.

Meanwhile in the betting the LAB most votes price gets tighter and I’ve had a little flutter at 7/2 on the LDs getting 3+ MEPs.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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Most of the counting following the May 22nd local elections will take place the following day

April 23rd, 2014

The latest information 68 councils intend to count overnight and 93 to start counting on Friday. So all the fun will come on the Friday.

The Euro election count is on the Sunday right across the EU.



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CORRECTION AND APOLOGY

April 23rd, 2014



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The “Literal Democrats” 2014 style: This breakaway anti-EU party could hurt UKIP big time

April 23rd, 2014

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The “Literal Democrats” 2014 style  This breakaway anti EU party could hurt UKIP big

It is top of the ballot in all 9 English regions

Back at the 1994 European Elections the Lib Dems thought that had lost in the South West region because a party calling itself “The Literal Democrats” syphoned off support that the party believe should have gone to them. This led to a celebrated court case which the Yellows lost.

I wonder what today’s purples will make of this – the “An Independence from Europe party” that’s appeared on the ballot papers. The party was established in 2012 by Mike Natrass, an ex-UKIP MEP and former deputy lead who had got de-selected.

As can be seen from the ballot paper above by using the word “an” the Natrass’s party has ensured that it is at the top of the list. His move also opens up questions about the number of MEPs elected at previous elections who are no longer with the party.

An Independence from Europe uses very much the same colour scheme and branding of the official UKIP and voters could get confused.

Time to bet that UKIP won’t top the poll on May 22nd and won’t win most seats

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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First post Easter Euros poll sees almost no change

April 23rd, 2014

The LDs back in double figures

This morning’s Sun sees the first post holiday weekend Euros poll from YouGov and the only changes on the the last survey are all within the margin of error. LAB no change, UKIP and CON both down one with the LDs back up one at 10%.

Clegg’s party will be relieved that the negative reaction to the debates with Farage seem to be fading and that a 10% share should not produce the wipe out of their MEP contingent in Brussels that many have talked about.

At this stage it is hard to draw any conclusions about the impact of the UKIP £1.5m poster campaign which has just been launched.

The purples are relying very much on their big billboard campaign across the country which is the same approach as five years ago when they came in second place on votes with a share of 16.5%.

    The same poll suggests that the Euro elections are special and that UKIP will be down to 12% at the general election.

The Westminster voting intentions are LAB 37, CON 35, LD 10 and UKIP 12.

Voting for the May 22nd local and Euro elections will start for those registered for postal votes in less than a fortnight.

The big long term question is whether UKIP will be able to carry over the momentum of a big Euro election performance into the general election – something they’ve not been able to achieve in the past.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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Remember: Next PB gathering: Friday May 2nd starting at 6.30pm

April 22nd, 2014

Usual location: Dirty Dicks pub opposite Liverpool Street station

Thanks again to Fat Steve for making the arrangements.



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At last somebody is studying the voters who could decide GE2015

April 22nd, 2014

The ComRes/Channel 4 focus group of 2010 LD>LAB switchers

The first post-holiday weekend Populus poll has very little change though the LAB lead moves from 1% to 3% – all within the margin of error. LAB 36 +1, CON 33 -1, LD 10 +1, UKIP 13 -1.

The poll also shows that 33% of 2010 LDs who voiced a voting intention said they had switched to LAB. Amongst all 2010 LDs, including don’t knows and wont’t votes, the proportion was 24%. This is all pretty much in line with what we’ve seen.

Meanwhile Channel 4 have just made available footage of the above ComRes focus group on LD switchers that went out last week.

The very fact that this took place at all is to be applauded. What has been remarkable has been the apparent lack of interest in the mainstream media in the biggest voting shift since GE2010 and one that ensure that could that LAB wins most seats.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble