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The Euro elections – what we know about turnout local authority by local authority

May 24th, 2019

This is a very useful piece of work and will be invaluable on Sunday night when the results come in.

Mike Smithson



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Johnson now evens to succeed TMay as PM

May 24th, 2019

Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange

But will he suffer the Tory front-runner curse?

This morning’s announcement by Mrs May that she is Stepping down did not come as a surprise and indeed there has been a lot of activity over her replacement over the past few weeks. On Betfair, the betting exchange where it is punters exchanging bets between themselves not the bookmakers who fix the odds, the former Foreign Secretary and Mayor of London is now evens favourite to be Britain’s next PM after a period when his odds have tightened rapidly.

The only problem he faces, of course, is what has become the curse that afflicts the front runners in Tory leadership races. Apart from Michael Howard in 2003 who was given a coronation the front runner in period leading up to the vacancy has never got it in modern times.

The first Tory leadership election after PB had been founded in 2004 was the one that succeeded Michael Howard’s failure to prevent a third Tony Blair workable majority in 2005. All the long-term money had been on David Davis yet suddenly part, apparently out of nowhere, David Cameron emerged as a serious contender then made a big speech at his Party Conference and thereafter the prospects of DDavis declined.

Johnson has of course being the frontrunner before and was very much expected to succeed David Cameron following his resignation immediately after the referendum in June 2016. For whatever reason, and there have been interesting TV dramatisations, Johnson pull himself out of the race after Michael Gove entered it on that amazing Thursday morning three years ago.

The process, as we are all no doubt very familiar, is that there is a series of ballots amongst CON MPs to draw up a shortlist of 2 to go to the membership. It is here that it is thought that Johnson might struggle and his main worry, I’d suggest, is if another prominent pro brexit here emerges and there are several who who you can see moving into the frame.

Johnson’s reputation is based on the untested notion that he reaches voters that other potential leaders are unable to do. But he’s a bit older now and a reputation for playing the fool might not be the best recommendation for his parliamentary colleagues. He’s also known to be not that clubbable with fellow MPs a characteristic that might prove problematical once the voting starts.

This is, I believe, the first time ever that a prime minister will be chosen by the membership of a party. Gordon Brown replaced Tony Blair in 2007 without being troubled by a contest and of course 3 years ago Theresa May got the job when Andrea leadsom, who had also made the final two, pulled out following her controversial comments about being a mother.

Mike Smithson


 



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So TMay finally decides to quit and the race for her successor begins

May 24th, 2019



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The big picture from the turnout figures so far annouced is that the more an area was for Remain the more people voted yesterday

May 24th, 2019

Although there has been no exit or other polling there has been a mass of data from the local authority areas that began verifying the ballots overnight.

The big picture so far is in the headline – there’s a correlation between the percentage of those who voted yesterday and what the area did at the referendum. So far it seems that the more for Leave places were the lower turnout levels there were yesterdsy.

Now we should be careful rushing to judgment here because all we have is data from a relatively small number of council area and, of course, what happened in the referendum. But if a significantly higher proportion of people voted in Remain area that does suggest that the Greens and LDs might be doing well.

There has been no information from London yet – the ballot verifications are taking place in the morning – but I’m increasingly confident that my 7/2 bets on the LDs winning the vote in the capital might be a winner.

The Tweet above is from Ashfield – a strong leave area where the turnout was low in comparison to, say, the 47% in the strong remain city of St Albans.

Mike Smithson




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Frustratingly there’ll be no results or even on the day polls until Sunday at 10pm

May 23rd, 2019


Those used to general elections in the UK and the drama of the exit poll coming out they might get a bit deflated to have reached 10 this evening to find the polls have closed and nothing is happening.

We will have to wait until 10 p.m. on Sunday evening for the first results to come out. This is because of the strict rules about EU elections that no information on voting can be revealed until such time as as until voting in all countries is over.

There’s obviously a lot of anecdotal evidence of what’s been happening today and we could get some harder data about turnout trends from the verification process that is taking this evening of all the ballot papers that were cast. This procedure is monitored by party observers and information can come out.

If turnout is not as high as some had been predicting then which parties will be the beneficiaries and which the losers? My current view, an this might be overtaken by events, is that BRX will benefit most from a highish turnout.

Please share any info you have on the thread below.

Mike Smithson




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The Election day PB / Polling Matters podcast looks at what is going on with the Euro polls

May 23rd, 2019

On this week podcast, Keiran Pedley and Matt Singh discuss the EU election polls and what happens next week.

Listen to the podcast below:

Follow this week’s guests:





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The final poll puts BRX on 35% with the LDs in second place 5% ahead of LAB

May 23rd, 2019

This is much closer to YouGov than other polls

The pollster, Ipsos-MORI, has a long history of trying to be the publisher of the last poll before an election. It does this by finishing its fieldwork on the Wednesday evening and generally it is published in the London Evening Standard on the Thursday.

With this election when so much is fluid this is good time to get a snapshot. The hope is that it will enable the firm to identify late swings and get the very latest sense of where opinion is moving. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn’t.

What can be seen from the numbers above is that is that the broad picture is fairly similar to YouGov which was until now the only pollster to have the LDs in second place. It is also the only pollster apart from YouGov to have the Tories in single figures.

This new poll also gives a much lower figure for LAB than other firms apart from YouGov. The 15% LAB share here compares with the 25% from Panelbase and 24% from Kantar and Survation.

A key number is that 52% of those planning to vote Conservative in the European elections said they may still change their mind.

There is at least one on the day survey taking place and we might see that later on this evening after the polls have closed.

Mike Smithson




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On Euro election day it looks as though it is all over for the woman whose only crime was to try to implement the referendum without damaging the economy

May 23rd, 2019

With parts of her cabinet now in open revolt it is hard to see how even TMay can now survive.  Today being election day at least gives her breathing space ahead of what has appeared likely for some time.

The Tory obsession with Europe is devouring another leader.

In many ways it would have been better for the party if the July 2016 leadership election had resulted in a leaver taking over the helm of the party though no doubt he or she would have faced the same challenges that TMay has.

When and what the sequencing of events will be has yet to be worked out but we are close to leadership election which could be over before the summer recess.

Will TMay step aside immediately or will she stay in post while a successor is chose? It is hard to see the party in it current mood allowing that. They want her out.

At least the likely terrible performance in today’s election will be overshadowed by what lies ahead.

Mike Smithson