The former Cambridge and now City mathematician, Martin Baxter, has cut his forecast of the Labour majority at the next General Election from 42 to just 30 seats. His April prediction is based on the March opinion polls and produces the tightest margin since Tony Blair came to power in 1997. CON 229 seats from 36.63% of the vote LAB 338 seats from 35.10% of the vote LDs 48 seats from 21.09% of the vote. Baxter has factored in the…
The bookies seem to have got their sums wrong over their General Election Seats Won Markets by ignoring the seat changes in Scotland. At the next election the number of Westminster seats is being reduced from 659 to 646 following a Boundary Commission review to bring the size of Scottish constituencies into line with those in the rest of the country. This is a long overdue reform that could have a big impact on the final result. With 55 of…
To liven up betting on the General Election there should be market on which party will get most seats in England. This could be an easier target for the Tories because the way that Westminster seats are distributed means that they need to have a votes margin of at least six full percentage points to become the next Government – Labour is there even if it is three points behind. Michael Howard has shown himself to be ruthless and already…
It now looks as though there will be more fully postal ballots than ever before in the Euro Elections on June 10. A Lib Dem move to restrain the Government was thwarted last week and the whole North-West region will vote on this basis. As someone who has spent a lot of time “pounding the streets” as an activist I share all the concerns about security and fraud. Imagine a large house converted into bed-sitters with one letter box. What…
Any punter thinking of backing any party but Labour at the next UK General Election should be aware of the “power of the Donut” – the term that was used by Labour stategists the last time the boundaries for Westminster seats were re-drawn ten years ago. A real possibility, based on current polls, is that that Labour could hold onto power at the next election even though it is three or four full percentage points behind the Tories. The winner…
An extraordinary idea that could completely blow out the White House 2004 betting market and scupper Bush’s chance of being re-elected is being speculated upon in Washington. The plan, quite simply, is that John Kerry, certain to be chosen as Democratic candidate in July, should select the Republican Senator from Arizona, John McCain as his running mate. The pair would then run on a National Unity ticket. The two have a lot in common. Both had illustrious military careers and…