h1

What about our London call now?

May 27th, 2004

.GLA
But the Tories are 6% ahead for the London Assembly .
The latest poll putting Ken Livingstone 14% ahead might seem fatal to our London call that the election is very close but we have had nothing this time about turnout or 2nd preferences. We have not had, either, the deep probing about the affect of Ken being Labour candidate discussed here yesterday.

    Ken Livingstone might have been able to obliterate all reference to the fact that he is Labour candidate on his campalgn materials but when Londoners vote on June 10 they will see the Labour logo printed next to his name on the ballot paper.

We have been saying for months that with Livingstone as Labour candidate the one in 3 Londoners who will turnout will cast their mayoral vote along party lines. This is the heart of our call. At this stage last time only half of declared Tory supporters said they would vote for Norris – on the day 5 out of 6 did. We expect a near full house on June 10.

    The latest YouGov figures for the London assembly show the Tories well ahead and provide real encouragement to Norris backers.If CON supporters vote the party ticket for Mayor then he is in by a clear margin.

The figures are-
.

CON 34%
LAB 28%
LDEM 16%
GRN 9%,
UKIP 5%

Following a similar survey in 2000 on party split Labour got 7% less and CON 6% more in the actual election We expect that the differential turnout in outer London will see the CON figure rise by 3-4% at the expense of LAB. The Green 2nd prefs will go to Ken and UKIP to Norris. Last time Norris got most LD 2nd prefs.

Four years ago ICM, the pollster that describes itself as “Britain’s most accurate” reported that among those certain or very likely to vote, Livingstone had 53%, Norris 17 and Frank Dobson and Susan Kramer each had 12%. Three days later Livingstone got 39% to Norris’s 27.1%.

    If you are backing Livingstone remember that people tell pollsters that they suppport him but do not vote.Those that support Norris do.

We think that YouGov will be closer than ICM was but that the party split and turnout are critical.

A fascinating election to bet on and Norris is still great value. London election.






Comments are closed.