If we all thought the same there’d be no political betting!
Yesterday’s SELL CALL on Labour at 346 seats in the spread markets has created a good debate and opened up a split between those who think that in spite of their current performance Labour are going to do just fine in the General Election and those who think they’ll have a struggle. Nobody, though, has been bold enough to put the argument that the Tories will end up winners!
The Labour big majority backers ought to look at Labour’s position now and compare it with where they were before the 2001 General Elections.
LAST TIME by-elections – no problem. The 1997-2001 Parliament was the first since Churchill when the governing party did not lose a by-election. In the final year four rock solid seats were held without anybody missing a heartbeat and the party getting shares of 44-52%, the biggest LibD share in a Labour seat was at Tottenham with 19%.
THIS TIME by-elections – a disaster. Now you only have to mention the possiblity – like Hartlepool yesterday – and everybody recalls Leicester South with Labour votes DOWN from 22,958 to 8,620: Tories down from 9,715 to 5,796: LDs up from 7,243 up to 10,274. These are the numbers behind the Labour spread price surge . Perverse.
LAST TIME – Huge Labour poll leads in final year (excluding the petrol crisis) of upto 26%. Dropped to 9% actual on polling day which none of the pollsters predicted in the previous 12 months.
THIS TIME – Labour leads 0-5%. Where’s the evidence that Labour’s will increase by polling day? The facts point the other way with the party always getting a smaller share than almost any of the polls in the final year. What’s different this time? What’s going to happen when the UKIP effect, as in 2001, drops to just a 1.5% share?
LAST TIME 10 extra Scottish Labour seats because north of the border they have an average of 55,000 voters per constituency compared with 70,000 elsewhere.
THIS TIME the Scottish anamoly is ended. Total Scottish seats down from 72 to 59 and at least 10 of the losses are Labour.
Whatever it’s fun to speculate and to discuss. We think that Labour will get a lot less seats than the current spread markets and we rather like the Bet365, link from here, of 2/1 on Labour at 335 or less. That seems great value and with less of the risk than a spread bet.
Keep on arguing. Keep on backing big Labour seat totals because it creates better betting value.