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Betting Boosted by the Boston Bounce

July 27th, 2004

kerry edwards

    John Kerry and John Edwards – looking to maximise their appeal

After Day Two of the Boston Convention the Kerry-Edwards ticket for the Democratic nomination is just nosing ahead ahead of Bush in the betting markets as the expected Boston bounce takes effect. The Betfair betting exchange has, at time of posting, Kerry at 20/21 against 1/1 for Bush. With most UK bookmakers the Kerry price has tightened to 5/6, the same as Bush.

In the US the Iowa Electronic Exchange – where “political futures” are traded as if they were shares – the current prices are about evens on both the Democratic and the Republican. This chart history is very revealing.

    All of this is to be expected because once the Convention has started people start to look at the nominees in a different way. The question is whether the prices will hold once the Republicans hold their Convention in New York next month – or will the momentum of Boston be long-lasting?

The pre-Convention polls showed a similar picture to the past month or so with Kerry just ahead in most though Bush showing a lead in one or two.

For a real taste of how the campaign is going the best place is the blog of Andrew Sullivan – the Sunday Times columnist who is moving from Bush to supporting John Kerry. He’s under constant attack from his former loyalists but the passion and fluidity of his descriptions of the Convention make great and convincing reading.

    For those hesitating on whether or not to bet on Kerry we can only say – read Andrew Sullivan. This is from Tuesday.

THE REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATS: I’m still somewhat in shock at the first night of the Democratic Convention. I kept thinking I was at a Republican convention. Tightly scripted, elegantly choreographed, seamlessly on the centrist message of war, unity, maturity and judgment. Foreign policy was front and center; faith was showcased; military service was held up as the ideal; prudent leadership was touted in a time of “peril,” in Hillary’s word. I wonder if they can keep this up. But I’m amazed they’ve tried. I’ve been writing for months now that Kerry’s most effective message would be that he’d conduct the war on terror with more allies and more wisdom than Bush. But I never actually believed he’d be canny enough to do exactly that. But he has! If the first night is any indicator, the Democrats have played the smartest, strongest card of the campaign so far. First off, they put 9/11 front and foremost, insisting that this is their catastrophe too, and the center of their concerns as well.

The message that’s coming over is very clear – the Democrats want to win so badly and they will not let anything stand in their way.

Interestingly there’s still some doubt, in the betting markets at least, over whether Dick Cheney will stay on the Bush ticket. You can get 10/1 on him not being there.

For some campaign fun check this out – it takes a long time to load but it’s worth it.

Picture – http://a.abcnews.com/media/FrontPage/images/kerry_edwards_040203_fp.jpg






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