Will Labour recover?
July 28th, 2004
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Or is the “Love Affair” over?
With the latest spread prices showing, not surprisingly, a further move to the Lib Dems at the expense of the Conservatives the big question for those trying to “call” the next General Election is whether and how much Labour can recover from poll ratings that the party has not seen in a generation.
Is this just the normal dip of a party in power, as argued here by the head of Populus, Andrew Cooper, or have large parts of the electorate simply “fallen out of love with New Labour” as described by the veteran columnist, Alan Watkins in the Independent last Sunday. The latest spreads are:-
LAB 346-354 (NC): CON 210-218 (-2): LIBD 64-68 (+2)
Yet again the spread price is based on the 659 seat House of Commons not the 646 one that will be fought over to deal with the Scottish anamoly of having too many seats in proportion to its population. There are many issues involved:-
Given the UK’s electoral geography being so much in Labour’s favour it’s a brave punter who bets against the party getting most seats at the General Election. We’d like more interesting bets to be made available - such as will Michael Howard hold off the Lib Dem challenge in is his seat at Folkestone!
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WRT Folkestone, look at the vote the Conservatives got in Shepway on June 10th, and I think that will answer your question.
However generous the odds - I wouldn\’t bet with someone else\’s cash on Howard losing Folkestone next time. As far as I\’m aware in the TV age no party leader has lost their seat - in fact most (if not all) increase their majority. I think there is even a sympathy factor when the opposition loses particularly heavily the leader is rewarded with a bigger majority - witness Hague last time and Foot in 1983.
The last time a party leader lost, I\’d guess, would be 1918 when Asquith lost by not having the \’coupon\’.
I think your labour vote totals in the spreads are 100 short!
LAB 246-254 (NC): CON 210-218 (-2): LIBD 64-68 (+2)
Archibald Sinclair lost his seat in 1945 - by a narrow margin - but coming third in a close 3 way fight.
Thanks Otto - a typo. Amended.
I agree that Michael Howard will hold onto Folkestone - local pride and all that. But I would bet though that it will be one of the most lively General Election betting markets and will get a huge amount of media attention.
I think the single most interesting seat to bet on will be Bethnal Green and Stepney, where George Galloway will be standing. Labour, Lib Dems, Conservative, and Respect all polled very closely together in Tower Hamlets in the Assembly and European elections - and it could go any one of four ways.
There\’s a very interesting local by-election taking place in Stepney tomorrow, which, so I am told, has developed into a straight fight between Respect and the Conservative candidate, which may give a pointer.
A Conservative in Stepney… quite a few will be turning in their graves on that one
Indeed - if it comes to pass it will be the first time a Conservative has ever been elected in Tower Hamlets or any of its predecessor boroughs!
There were probably Conservatives (or whatever the local equivalent was called) representing Stepney in the early 1900s.
The Conservative candidate for the City and London East GLA seat actually came within 35 votes of topping the poll in Tower Hamlets on June 10th. And in June 2002, in a by-election in Blackwall & Cubitt Town, the Conservative came within 10 votes of taking the seat.
The Labour bias in the polls no longer applies. The practitioners responsible for that have either changed their methods (MORI, NOP) and/or left the scene (Gallup). Most pollsters now publishing political research draw heavily on the innovations and insights of ICM, the most accurate pollster in 1997 and 2001, but also erring slightly to the Tories on both occasions. Combined with the shift in the direction of the spiral of silence (which ICM and Populus correct for - as best they can - but YouGov and MORI do not), it is more likely, if anything, that the election polls will err in favour of the Tories than in favour of Labour.
Sorry Sean - I am not aware from any of my East End contacts that the Conservatives have ever won anything in Tower Hamlets or its predecessor Boroughs - which were set up in the 19th Century.
Stepney may have been repesented by a Tory before it was built up (probably before the Great Reform Act).
By the way my contacts also do not expect this losing streak to end tomorrow!
Dan - Sir Mancherjee \”Bow and Agree\” Bhownaggree, was Conservative MP for Bethnel Green from 1895-1906. Though, granted, we are unlikey to repeat the feat in the near future.
Thanks Anthony - I stand corrected.
The St Dunstan\’s and Stepney Green by-election was a two horse race as Sean said - unfortunately it was a two horse reace between the Lib Dems and Respect (who won).
A book on the outcome of the Bethnal Green and Bow parliamentary seat would be interesting!
Lynda Miller, National Front Pensioners Before Asylum Seekers - 172 votes
Oliur Rahman, Respect - The Unity Coalition (George Galloway) - 878 votes
Shah Habibur Rahman, The Labour Party - 578 votes
Alexander Patrick Story, The Conservative Party Candidate, - 445 votes
Jalal Uddin, Liberal Democrats (Focus Team) - 754 votes
Turnout was 29.85 per cent.
I\’m surprised that this result has been barely mentioned on any news site. Although it\’s only a council by-election, I should have thought that Respect winning their first safe Labour seat would be newsworthy. Respect topped the poll in 8 wards in Tower Hamlets in the London Assembly elections, so Tower Hamlets may be on its way to becoming Britain\’s first Islamic Fundamentalist council.
It\’s an interesting point - but it\’s all very well Respect picking up a seat during the mid term of both a Labour Government and Labour Council - but they\’re a long way from control - they\’ve also got no base among the white East Enders.
But I could see them doing serious damage to Labour - if Galloway picked up 20% of the vote - mainly from the Bengalis - it could leave Oonagh vulnerable to either the Lib Dems or the Tories.
A punt on either might be worth it (if there was a book)
Yes, their weakness is that they have no appeal to anyone other than Muslim voters, and not all of them. Brent and Harrow have fair-sized Muslim populations, yet Respect could manage no more than 3.6% in the London Assembly election in that constituency.
But in Tower Hamlets and Newham, they undoubtedly have a big appeal to Muslims. Also, White working class Eastenders are moving out of the area, and white middle class Eastenders, living in Docklands, don\’t have a very good record of voting in local elections.
Oona King didn\’t enhance her appeal to Muslim voters by telling a local newspaper that she has \”an angry vagina\” either.
So I think it will be one of the most interesting contests at the next election.
I think your \”Islamic fundamentalist council\” jibe is a bit unfair. We all know that Respect are picking up a sizeble Muslim vote because of their outright opposition to the war. A Muslim doesn\’t have to be an Islamic fundamentalist to oppose the war, however, and for all the dodgy alliances they have made, I don\’t think Respect would govern according to any sort of even moderate Islamic prospectus. Gaining any sort of power probably isn\’t actually in their interests, since all the contradictions inherent in being basically a protest party picking up protest votes will be laid bare.
I was being a bit tongue-in-cheek.
However, if you read about the goings-on in Tower Hamlets in this week\’s Private Eye, you\’ll see I\’m not entirely wide of the mark.