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Kerry’s poll ratings hold firm & it’s neck and neck in the betting

August 21st, 2004

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    The White House race gets dirtier and dirtier

The Democratic ticket is holding firm in the polls with a clear lead in most of them after a sustained and well funded attack in an attempt to undermine John Kerry’s status as a Vietnam war hero.

A big New York Times investigation has sought to establish the truth behind the “Swift Boat Vertans for Truth”, who has been funding the TV commercials and features some remarkable revelations. It states:-

Records show that the group received the bulk of its initial financing from two men with ties to the president and his family – one a longtime political associate of Mr. Rove’s, the other a trustee of the foundation for Mr. Bush’s father’s presidential library. A Texas publicist who once helped prepare Mr. Bush’s father for his debate when he was running for vice president provided them with strategic advice. And the group’s television commercial was produced by the same team that made the devastating ad mocking Michael S. Dukakis in an oversized tank helmet when he and Mr. Bush’s father faced off in the 1988 presidential election.

A particularly revealing aspect is that several of those veterans featured attacking Kerry had lavished praise on him, some as recently as last year.

    The issue could well re-bound on George Bush as he prepares for the Republican Convention in New York at the end of the month.

The Iowa Electronic Exchange, where “political futures” such as who will win are traded like a stock has seen the Kerry price ahead of Bush a number of time in the past few days. This market is on who wins most votes not who will be the next President so last time the Al Gore backers would have won.

The best UK bookmaker prices are 17/20 on both Bush and Kerry. You can get slightly better than evens on Kerry on the Betfair exchange market.

We stick with our call, first made in May, that Kerry will win. A President who has been so low in the popularity ratings in an election year has never gone on to win a second term. If you can get better than evens on Kerry take it.

Mike Smithson






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