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Could these boxes decide the election?

October 29th, 2004

    Sharp move to Kerry after Iraq explosives video

Betting on the US election on both sides of the Atlantic has taken a sharp turn to John Kerry after ABC News screen a video (above) purporting to show US troops with the missing Iraqi explosives nine days after Baghdad fell.

The pro-War former Bush supporter and Sunday Times columnist, Andrew Sullivan, describes it like this – What we’re seeing is the slow exposure of the reality of the Iraq war. No: not the incompetence of the soldiers. The incompetence of the president. He’s responsible. And this time, he cannot duck it.

When the news first broke (see previous article) it was on the UK betting exchange, Betfair, where punters reacted first taking the Bush price to above evens. The US-focused Iowa Electronic Exchange and Tradesports followed an hour or so later. Bush is still below evens in all markets – but not by very much and his price seems to be being propped up by punters consolidating their positions.

    A lot now depends on how the two campaigns play this new situation. The Kerry team will be arguing that this destroys the Bush case of the past few weeks that only under him are Americans safe. The first move by Bush supporters has been to cast doubt on the film’s veracity.

But the news comes as the polls and betting generally were moving towards the Democrat ticket.

Betting round up
Bush 51.8 Kerry 48.2 Iowa Political Futures Market
Bush 51.5 Kerry 48.5 Tradesports exchange
Bush 1.84 Kerry 2.16 Betfair exchange






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