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Bringing it all together

October 31st, 2004


http://www.econ.umn.edu/~amoro/Research/presprobs.html

As we move into the final thirty-six hours can we recommend this site which brings polls, electoral vote predictions and Tradesports prices all together.

Everything is moving so fast and Betfair alone has now seen more than £4m of matched bets on the race.

Bush 55.5 Kerry 44.5Iowa Political Futures Market
Bush 54 Kerry 46 Tradesports exchange
Bush 1.71 Kerry 2.38 Betfair exchange
Bush 3/5 Kerry 5/4 UK bookmaker best price

Polling round-up showing variance of margin on last poll
Bush 46 Kerry 46 Fox
Bush 47 Kerry 48 DCorps
Bush 48 Kerry 48 Zogby tracking
Bush 48 Kerry 48 ARG
Bush 49 Kerry 48 ABC

The big change has been Fox which has moved from a Bush 6% lead to them level-pegging.


Will the election be a tie?

There’s been a lot of speculation that this could be the outcome and the latest prediction is that there is a 3.25% chance of this happening – or 35/1. So the current William Hill price of 12/1 is not good value.






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