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The betting markets give it to Bush

November 1st, 2004

    But will the Dow and the Redskins have it right?

With just a day to go the polls have it as a dead heat but political gamblers on both sides of the Atlantic are putting their money behind George Bush.

The “gambling” lead that emerged after the Osama video on Friday has been sustained and looks as though it is getting tighter. Gallup, the pollster which had been recording bigger Bush margins than the others, now has it as a dead heat.

The electoral vote predictors, based on state polls, are showing a Kerry lead. Slate now has it 299 Kerry to 239 Bush.

    Is there betting value on Kerry? Given all the polls and numbers we think that the odds on the challenger doing it should be tighter than they are. A Kerry bet is a value bet.

POINTS

  • No sitting President has ever been re-elected if the Dow was down in October. Close, 31/9 – Dow 10077. Close, 29/10 – Dow 10027
  • The winner of the last home Washington Redskins game of the season has correctly predicted every US presedential election. (A home win gives the velection to the incumbent party.) Redskins got wacked by the Green Bay Packers 28-14
  • Bush 55 Kerry 44Iowa Political Futures Market
    Bush 55 Kerry 45 Tradesports exchange
    Bush 1.72 Kerry 2.36 Betfair exchange
    Bush 4/7 Kerry 5/4 UK bookmaker best price






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