Try this little test. Click on this link to go Upmystreet.com. Type in the postcode of a UK residential address that you want to check. Then click on the link marked ACORN PROFILE and go to “full profile” . You will then see an interesting description of how the marketing business assesses people who live there, how much they earn, what TV they watch, the things they buy and what papers they read etc. Now ask yourself whether the profile…
After three polls showing big Labour leads the betting markets have now caught up a little with the number of predicted Labour seats at the election increasing and the Tory numbers declining. At IG the spreads are LAB 345-353: CON 194-202: LD 70-74. Sportingindex, meanwhile have LAB 344-352: CON 202-210: LD 70-74.. These are big differences between the two firms with IG attracting more Labour money and SI, seemingly, getting more pro-Tory bets. What could affect the prices is the…
Be wary of the party spinners As we get nearer the General Election pundits and punters will be looking beyond the opinion polls to find pointers as to what is going on. One source that’s readily available are the results from the handful of local council by-elections that take place up and down the country almost every Thursday. For many years the results were aggregated and issued monthly as a sort of poll. These are real electors putting real votes…
Are gamblers ignoring massive betting value? The spate of polls showing Labour shares in the late 30s with leads of upto 9% has, as expected, led to prices moving on the spread betting markets where punters gamble on how many seats each party will get at the General Election. SportingIndex have now shaved more off the Tories and increased Labour:- LAB 344-352 (+2): CON 202-210 (-2): LD 70-74 (n/c). Yet the prices are not back to the levels of late…
Hilary moves to Number One top political bet With two new polls showing Labour leads of 8-9% the party has tightened even further to 1/7 for the General Election and punters have been looking elsewhere for betting value. Even though the next White House race is four years away it has moved to the top of the charts as the week’s most popular political bet. In a fairly light betting week punters have been looking for bets that give them…
The statistics they never tell you As we predicted yesterday’s ICM poll in the Guardian pushed up Labour prices and depressed Tory ones on the spread, seat and overall winner markets. The latest IG spreads are:- LAB 342-350 (+2): CON 198-206 (-2): LD 69-73 (+1). SportingIndex is LAB 342-350: CON 205-213: LD 70-74 – the discrepancy based on the fact that they are using the old larget House of Commons – not the new reduced sized one. The best boomaker…
The morning that Gordon Brown became favourite On the weekend on May 15 this year a rumour swept through the Westminster village about a family problem for Tony and Cherie Blair that people concluded would lead to him wanting to step down as Prime Minister. The media showed great restraint and the story was never covered. But punters “in the know” saw an opportunity for profit and by 10am on the Sunday morning heavy betting on Gordon Brown on Betfair…
Markets look set to move further to Labour Further evidence of improving Labour fortunes comes in today’s ICM poll in the Guardian which has:- LAB 38: CON 30: LD 22: UKIP 2 The story is online. The margin is one per cent less than an ICM poll last month which had Labour on 39% to the Tories on 30%. The Guardian in its myopic style never seems to recognise polls which it did not commission, even from ICM, and tells…