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Our Election Prediction Competition

December 30th, 2004

    Something more to argue about

New Year’s Eve and a good moment to launch our General Election Prediction Competition. Apart from the honour and the recognition from your peers we are hoping that a sponsor will provide a suitable prize. At the moment the best we have got is a colour picture of Ken Livingstone with his autograph on it and a Tony Blair mug where the nose grows as you pour in hot water.

  • Post your entries as a comment by the end of next Saturday – January 7 2005.
  • Please do not use the comments section here for anything other than entries. Discussion on the competition should be on the previous thread
  • Copy and paste the list below and type in your predictions accordingly.
  • Please include a valid email address and only one entry is allowed per person.
  • My decision on all matters relating to the competition is final.
  • 1. Size of the Labour majority/minority. Fifteen points for getting it right reducing by one point either side for each seat off target.

    2. Size of Labour’s lead/deficit in the GB popular vote in percentage points. Ten points for getting it right reducing by one point either way for each 0.25% off target.

    3. Most accurate pollster. This will be decided on the size of the predicted Lab-Con margin based on their final surveys. Choose one from ICM, Mori, NOP, CR, or YouGov. Four points for winner. Two points for second.

    4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow. Two points.

    5. Winning party Bristol West Two points.

    6. Winning party Cambridge Two points.

    7. Winning party Colne Valley Two points.

    8. Winning party Inverness Two points.

    9. Winning party Maidenhead Two points.

    10. Winning party St. Albans Two points.

    11. Winning party Upper Bann Two points.

    12. Winning party Ynys Mon Two points.

    Thanks to all who have provided ideas for which seats to choose. Best of luck and a happy New Year.

    Mike Smithson






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