Will Sunderland South be first again?
February 13th, 2005
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But how long will the Tories have to wait?
On election night there’ll be a betting market that is even more of a foregone conclusion than that on Labour winning most seats - the one on which constituency will declare first.
And given the amazing performance of Sunderland South last time it’s hard to see any other seat getting a look in. For the declaration of Chris Mullin’s victory from Wearside came at just 10-43 pm - three minutes faster than what was achieved in 1997. The time margin over the runner-up was so great that if it had been a horse race or an athletics event there would have been a full doping inquiry!
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But how long is Michael Howard going to have to wait for the first Tory declaration and which seat will it be?
For at the last two elections the combination of the Labour landslides and the English County Council elections taking place on the same day has meant that the first Tory seat has come several hours after Sunderland South.
In 2001 the Tories had to wait until 1am for the 84th declaration of the night for their first seat - Poole in Dorset. That was three minutes faster than 1997 when Solihull became the first for John Major.
One of the bookmakers has been in contact with us discussing ideas for interesting election markets. Given the near certainty of Sunderland South for Labour we’ve suggested they do something with the Tories - either how long will Michael Howard have to wait or which seat it will be? This depends on a number of factors:-
These were the only seats to declare before midnight last time:-
22:43 Sunderland South
23.21 Hamilton South
23.24 SunderlandNorth
23.38 Houghton and Washington East
23.45 Barnsley Central
Can any of them beat Sunderland or will this be a re-run of 2001? We think they will do it again. Check here for a full list of the timing of all 659 declarations last time. This is the 1997 list
© Mike Smithson 2005
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I seem to recall a Guardian - G2 - article about how Sunderland did it, it was a couple of years ago or so. Quite why they don’t leave all the counting till the following day is beyond me - here in Westminster they don’t bother to count the locals till the day after and it isn’t exactly a large area!
Second bite at the cherry… no overnight declarations in Northern Ireland, so obviously security isn’t the reason for not hanging on till the day after…
Perhaps we could fund the post-election party with a sweepstake on the first seat to change hands!
Can I have Pendle please!
what are he indicator seats that Labour hold which might change hands before the Polle resultis declared.
It would not be nearly as dramatic if they counted all the votes the next day. Anyway its good OT pay for the counters. As for the first Tory seat, I’m guessing either Edgebaston or Putney according to last GE’s timing.
If the order is the same as last time, then Edgbaston would be the first Lab/Con marginal to provide a clue as to how things are going. I would expect Labour to hold that one, but Putney could be interesting.
If there is a snap GE, then Basildon will probably resume its status as the first marginal fought over by the two main parties to declare (and before midnight - it declared at 11.24pm in 92).
Also Torbay last time provided solid proof the Lib Dems were going to do well against the Tories. Obviously turnout is a good indicator.
A great link in that it reminded us how dull staying up for the results was in 2001. Someone who went to bed at ten to two in the morning would have seen a single seat change hands, and that was from Plaid Cymru (sp?) to Labour…
A market for the timing of the first seat to change hands or for how many seat would change hands before 2:00 in the morning might be a bit more interesting for those of us staying up late to follow the “action”…
Torbay was always one of the first to declare. During the 1980’s it regularly used to be in the first five or six. In 1997 there were recounts, but in 2001 it declared just after midnight. Most Conservatives will remember the sinking feeling quite well…
True, we would rather not have that sinking feeling this time around. However I do not expect an election like last time (monumentally boring and fairly depressing). Significant numbers of seats will change hands between all parties, though I doubt labour will pick any up. Also there should be some far out results (according to our fanatical lib dems) and the prospect of ministerial careers being pushed down the plug hole. However I do not expect the added delight of seeing a cabinet minister lose, though several shadows might.
Portsmouth N (00:23 last time) will be a good early indication of the trend as it was a 1997 Lab gain having been held by the Conservatives since 79.
Yes, i certainly hope it isn’t as mindnumbingly boring as the last election. The most exciting moment was Patrick Nicholls losing Teignbridge!
Houndtang [13] - you’ve forgotten Mandy’s extraordinary rant after the declaration at Hartlepool!
That’s a very interesting question. As I now have lots of time tomorrow (there’s no indication of Blair calling the election tomorrow for March 10th so are we looking at April 7th?) I’ve got the list of declarations from 1997 and 2001 and will produce a list of the average number of votes counted per minute for each constituency, and then post the top 10 fastest here.
From what it looks like the counts are about 10-15 minutes faster in 2001, especially once you get past the 100th seat. This is either constituencies becoming more efficient or fewer seats changing hands (hence less demands for recounts). It would be interesting to post the 1992 (and if possible 1987) times to see if a trend can be detected.
Not to mention lower turnout = less votes to count.
From the Guardian “Military-style planning last night ensured that the Labour stronghold of Sunderland South was the first seat to declare for the third election running.
The announcement of Chris Mullin’s re-election at just before 10.43pm, a new national record, shaved 3 minutes 10 seconds off the previous best of 46 minutes.
A 10% drop in turnout to 48.3% made it quicker, with little more than 31,000 votes to count.
The returning officer, Colin Sinclair, recruited 90 runners to grab the sealed ballot boxes the moment polling booths officially closed at 10pm.
Staff in red T-shirts jumped into waiting cars and vans which sped to the count in the city’s Crowtree leisure centre.
Outside, a fresh team queued up to take it in turns to wait for a vehicle to pull up, open the door and grab a box before sprinting into the main sports hall.
The votes were emptied on to trestle tables and sorted into piles before dozens of tellers, recruited from Wearside’s banks and building societies, swung into action.
Civic pride spurred on Sunderland South to beat rivals Bootle, East Ham and Leigh to be the first to declare.
Mr Sinclair had asked financial institutions to supply only their fastest tellers, and he trained the entire squad with stop watches, saving vital minutes by planning the quickest routes and ensuring transport was in place before the polls closed. Instead of picking up boxes from several polling stations, vehicles served one each.
They’re specially trained and skilled,” boasted Mr Sinclair. The fact that Sunderland South is a compact urban constituency undoubtedly helped it pull off a unique treble.”
Re: 11. ‘though I doubt labour will pick any up . . ‘: A book on which seats they might gain would be interesting. If the booky offered it all 646 (?) seats they might pick up enough silly or laying-off bets on the safe ones to offer attractive odds on the actual likely contenders. This seems to me a much more interesting topic to bet on than the actual result. A bit like the Grand National, a race or set of races which anyone can have an opinion on. On Vote 2005 there is a punter predicting a Labour gain in Kingston & Surbiton, for example.
As far as I can see, labour are not going to pick up any off the Lib Dems or the SNP. They might pick up one of PC, and they have 5 Tory seats they could take (Beverley and Holderness, Basingstoke, Boston and Skegness, Bedfordshire South West and Castle Point) all with majorities under 1000.
14 - I surprised myself (after taking almost no interest in the 2001 campaign) by staying up till about 3am. It was well worth it for Mandelson’s “fighter, not a quitter”.
What about the new Scottish seat which has most of Hamilton S and bits of Glasgow Rutherglen (also an early declarer)? Is this second favourite?
Did anyone see the story in one of the Sundays about Labour ’suppressing’ unfavourable boundary changes in Wales until after the election?
Re 21, book value, I felt as if I’d wimped out by going to bed at 5.30, but you’ve helped alleviate that guilt (absurd in the first place, as all I missed was Hague’s resignation). Besides which, it was all so subdued and anti-climatic that it felt more like a local election results night than a General Election.
Re. 5, I agree entirely. It wouldn’t be half as exciting, and the overtime makes it a nice little racket for those who know the right people (as it tends to be outside Sunderland).
Re. 10, absolutely. I remember Torbay coming third in 92 (after Sunderland South and Guildford, and just before Basildon)
1 IA - It doesn’t matter whether the count is the next day. Most authorities use one ballot box for all ballot papers so they have to sort out the different ballot papers for the different elections first and then verify the turnout. Hence the delay even if the second count is the next day.
25 Good example from personal experience. I was the LD candidate in Mid Beds an extremely rural seat in 1997. The GE count was held on the Thursday night with the County count held on the Friday. The GE result was declared at 5.45am on the Friday:(
zzzzzz. Yes it was difficult due to the 2 elections and it being rural but it didn’t help that they had about half the number of counters that a relatively efficient count Bedford uses.
12 Portsmouth North will be even more interesting this time as I belive the LDs are doing lots in the seat - building on Captain Hook’s victory in PSouth.
11 Alisdair Darling’s result will be interesting
20 Labour wont pick up SW Beds - e.g. They’ve gone from 35 Cllrs on South Beds Council in 1996 to c.8 now. They are dreading the County elections as they know they will be hammered. They had 3 extremely able organisers including the PPC Andrew Date all of whom are now much less active. The Tories had an MP in Sir David Madel who on every single ground bar seat winnability was a Lib Dem. The Lib Dems have eaten into several of Labour’s heartlands since 1997. I predict a Tory majority of 8k with Lab only just beating LDs into 2nd.
Re. 25, quite right, and something I’ve seen myself in my own County constituency.
Re. 28, the result will be, the man himself is anything but.
Apparently Sunderland Council think it’s a great marketing exercise - gets the logo and some inane solgan quite a few minutes exposure to opinion formers on a night when the City wouldn’t otherwise get a look in.
I seem to remember there were some worries in 2001 that new speed humps might slow down the operation!
Whether the almost military operation Sunderland Council mount is a good use of taxpayers money is another discussion…
I wonder what they would do if one if the agent of one of the minor party candidates asked for a recount to save the deposit. Somebody would probably stump up the cash on thre spot!
In 2001, Sunderland South counted it’s votes at an average rate of 743 votes a minute, the next fastest was not the next seat to declare (Hamilton South) but was in fact Kirkcaldy. The tallies are:
Sunderland South: 743 votes a min
Kirkcaldy: 371 votes a min
Sunderland North: 359 votes a min
Hamilton South: 326 votes a min
Torbay: 326 votes a min
How does this compare with 1992 (does anyone have any data for 1987/92). Are the counters getting quicker or is it simply lower turnout?
Matthew - The 1992 Election was before the age of the internet and there are far fewer web sources available. I cannot find an “order of declaration” though some more accomplished Googlers than me might have more luck.
Just don’t bet on a Birmingham seat coming first. Not after the shambles at the ICC last year.
Does anyone have the 1997 votes per minute data? How many seats could potentially be affected (i.e delayed) by local election counting as compared to 1997 and 2001?
37 - I’m not aware of it being tabulated anywhere. If you have Excel and some time, you could use Pippa Norris’s database (link somewhere on the right sidebar) and combine it with the data in Mike’s post to calculate it.
On an only slightly related subject, which is the most “average” seat in England? I.e., which seat has the percentages of the votes for each candidate most close to the national proportions for their respective parties. Are their similar “average” constituencies in Wales and Scotland with the Nationalist parties added?
A price for the Most Average Constituency might be interesting.
At a guess, I’d say Watford is the most average constituency.
re 39,40 - taking the 2001 results for England (Lab 41.4%, Con 35.2%, LD 19.4%) and averageing the unsigned differences from this for the three parties in each constituency, the closest to the national result are Milton Keynes North East, St Albans and Calder Valley, each with an average difference < 2%, followed by Reading East, Watford, Wirral South and Bolton West all of which have an average difference < 3%.
For Wales, Swansea West has an average difference < 3% from the four parties’ national shares, although the positions of LD and Plaid Cymru are reversed.
re 39,40 - taking the 2001 results for England (Lab 41.4%, Con 35.2%, LD 19.4%) and averageing the unsigned differences from this for the three parties in each constituency, the closest to the national result are Milton Keynes North East, St Albans and Calder Valley, each with an average difference under 2%, followed by Reading East, Watford, Wirral South and Bolton West all of which have an average difference under 3%.
For Wales, Swansea West is closest to the four party shares.