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Will the final week rule hold?

April 29th, 2005

    Can it get better for Howard in the final phase?

With YouGov’s latest survey this morning showing the Tories still four points behind could there be some consolation for the Tories in the “final week rule”.

This is that the party in second place in the polls at the start of the final week improves by polling day – a factor that is said to have happened in all but one election of modern times.

This could be helped by the publication of the Attorney-General’s Iraq War advice which could reinforce switching from wavering Labour supporters to the Liberal Democrats – a move which in itself could produce more seats for the Tories.

    But the overwhelming factor in this election is whether Labour supporters will turn out and things like the war developments and the apparent certainty of a Labour victory will not help.

While we think that Labour’s vote will hold up better in its marginals the overall national share will suffer by very low turnouts in the 300 seats in this election that do not matter – Labour’s strongholds.

Our bet of the day. One bet that looks very interesting is the 5/1 you can get against the Tories winning the popular vote. Although we think that Labour will end up with more votes it is certainly not a 5/1 shot and a bet at this price looks great value for money.

The figures from the YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph are LAB 36 (-1): CON 32 (-1): LD 24 . The internet pollster continues to show the highest shares for the Lib Dems.

MORE BETTING MARKETS As well as the markets on the marginals a new series has just been launched on how each party will do in high profile seats. The full General Election Betting Round-up is here.

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    Mike Smithson






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