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Which French pollster do you believe?

May 28th, 2005

    Is there money to be made on the gap narrowing?

Two of the three final polls on the French EU Constitution referendum have shown a slight move back to the YES camp although NO is still firmly ahead. These are the surveys:

TNS-Sofres: Oui 49%, Non 51%
CSA: Oui 48%, Non 52%
Ifop: Oui 44%, Non 56%

Although the overall message is that the treaty is going to be rejected there just might be value in a BUY YES bet in IG Index where the current YES spread is 45-47%. The Spreadfair market which is on the NO percentage has 52.3-54% – so the IG spread is much more towards the NO position than Spreadfair.

The IG buy level is less than the YES percentage in two of the three so if they are right then you could make money if it is higher than 47%.

I do not have any real expertise on French polling but it does seem that the result could be closer than some recent polls have suggested. A smallish buy bet at 47% is worth a gamble which is what I have done.

Mike Smithson






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