How will next weekend’s vote impact on UK politics? With just a week to go before the French EU constitution referendum betting price on a “Non” have continued to tighten and now a full range of bookmakers are offering markets. The OUI position is still ahead but the best price on a NON is now 5/4. But the result, whichever way it goes, could have an enormous impact UK domestic politics and particularly on the when will Blair go question,…
But if not the Chancellor who? With Gordon Brown continuing to be the heavy odds-on favourite in the Next Labour leader market anything that might hurt his chances has to be taken seriously. And today, in one of those front page splashes that have becoming a characteristic of the Independent in its tabloid form, the paper pulls together a series of economic indicators to question whether the UK might be in trouble. Philip Thornton, Economics Editor, notes ……mounting concern that…
Why did so many on the postal list not vote? The move to extend postal voting was said to have been Labour’s “big idea†to deal with ongoing challenge that many more people say they support the party than actually vote for it. There is little hard evidence available but looking at what information we have from May 5th and hearing anecdotal reports the question has to be asked as to whether the five-fold increase in applications for postal votes…
The markets think he’s going in 18 months – don’t believe it Judging by prices in the When will Blair go market the expectation is that Tony Blair will be handing over to Gordon Brown or AN Other within the next eighteen months. It’s just 2/1 against him making the change this year and 5/4 against him stepping down in 2006. You can get a massive 20/1 against Tony Blair still being Prime Minister on January 1st 2010. It’s the…
Will the internet polling argument ever be resolved? In a move not designed to win him any friends within the UK polling industry the boss of YouGov, Peter Kellner, has posted a strongly argued piece, under the provocative heading “YouGov – consistently right” to reinforce his claim that his firm’s approach to taking the nation’s political temperature is the right one. Although he acknowledges that all the polls were within the same area in their eve of poll prediction and…
Put faces to the names at the gloating-free get-together Whenever in the past few months the idea of a post-election party has been raised my main concern has been that it could turn into an occasion for gloating and that only those supporting the winner would feel comfortable being there. Well the great thing about Election 2005 is that nobody got quite what they wanted so there’s been no gloating. Labour, as predicted, got back with a reasonable majority but…
At last the Politicalbetting forecasters of 2005 are… In my introduction on May 2 to our General Election Competition I took the precaution of stating..” My rulings, however unreasonable, on all matters relating to this competition are final. I am right even when I am wrong. There are two issues which could affect the result. Was Labour’s majority 66 or 67 seats (because of the South Staffordshire situation) and how do we handle the rounding on the vote shares. A…
Prepare for an early promotion for the former advisor Before Christmas we were saying that that the 5/1 then available against David Blunkett returning to the cabinet during 2005 was a great value way of betting on Labour to be top party. That proved to be a profitable punt. Now a similar bet is available on who will be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer. For if Gordon Brown, now just 2/9 to become next Labour leader, does make it…