Could the Tories choose a toff?
June 9th, 2005
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Does being an old Etonian still a disqualify you from being Tory leader?
Whenever the Tory leadership prospects of the Shadow Education secretary, David Cameron, are discussed on the site somone will pop and say that he is “too posh”. But is this going to hinder his chances?
On November 27th 1990 the then Foreign Secretary, Douglas Hurd, came a poor third to Michael Heseltine in the Tory leadership election that saw John Major become Prime Minister. At the time it was said that Hurd’s background, particularly the fact that he had gone to Eton, went against him.
Now Cameron, another old Etonian who succeded Hurd in his Oxforshire seat, is being tipped for the leadership and is rated by many bookmakers as second favourite for the leadership behind David Davis. The best conventional bookmaker price is 6/1 though on Betfair you can get more than 8.
In every leadership election since the Tories adopted a form of democracy in 1965 the educational background of the candidates has been an issue. In fact you have to go back more than forty years to Sir Alec Douglas-Home’s time, to find the last Tory leader who went to a public school and in those days leaders “emerged”. There was no election.
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The question for the Tory party of today is whether they think it matters any more whether they are led by someone who went to public school
When Cameron was made Shadow Education Secretary some Labour MPs attacked the appointment on the grounds of his educational background. But then it was pointed out that the person he would be facing across the the floor of the House, Ruth Kelly, went to another top public school, Westminster. And, of course, Tony Blair himself is not a product of the state system.
It’s probably quite healthy that Cameron’s Eton past is not the issue it would have been a generation ago. Whether he can beat David Davis we do not know.
Mike Smithson
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Probably carrying on from the last post but I feel that just like the Labour left bit their tongues to elect Blair and gain power I can’t help feeling that the Conservative right need to do the same sort of thing with Ken Clarke.
Afterall, he is talented, liked and probably the most well known of them all.
Come on folks, give him a chance!
Cameron is very good but the fact of the matter is that, like most of the new breed, he is also very rarely recognised and still pretty young.
1. Just what i spent yesterday arguing, against a wall of resistancea. Alas Ken’s ingrained habit of making unneccary gratuitously offensive comments about the membership, certain colleagues, seem to hurt him. THey even get up my nose although i recxognise the necessity of putting up with him. In this at least his age is an asset, as he won’t go on and on even if he wins.
It’s rather odd really over the past 40 years the tories have avoided electing a toff as leader. From Ted through to Margaret Thatcher, John Major , William Hague and Michael Howard all products of Grammar Schools and meritocracy . Whereas Labour wasn’t concerned about electing TB . Almost as if having a public school educated potential PM was part of the plan not to frighten the electoral horses.
In reverse I think there may be some residual reluctance to elect Cameron so as not to reinforce stereotypes about the tories , not sure if this will play large in the contest though.
I think Tories are too sensitive on this. It may be a problem, but it’s so far down the list, it shouldn’t signify.
Plus you can’t get posher than TB, so Labour wouldn’t have a leg to stand on.
Tories need to get a grip on racism, homophobia and Europe. When that’s done, by all means worry about poshness.
I don’t think his education is against him, but his lack of any front bench experience and the fact that he does come across as a Toff (TB comes across as less posh) are against him at this stage. As Geoffrey above says if the Tories are serious about power they will elect Clarke with Cameron groomed for the top job in a few years time. If not they will elect Davis.
4. That’s becaqusea the Left wing Media and Estanlishment go very quiet when it’s Labour, but as Portilloa points out when it’sa Tory the go injto full hue and cry, and let rip all their deppest tribal feelings.
5 , Nick , you may be right about dear old Ken . I spent part of yesterday ping-ponging on the previous thread on the who and came up with the startling revelation that I did’nt know. The best I came up with was the tories needed a Kinnock figure to reform the party , bring through new swing voter friendly policies and groom heavyweight lieutenants so they looked like a viable alternative government. I think Cameron may be an important part of the process but I have grave doubts whether he’s top job material.
7. I disagree i think he is top Job Material but in a few years. THat’s why a Clarke-Cameron tricket is so attractivera.
8 - I agree. I think he would be a much better leader than David Davis for example, but it is probably a bit to early. Cameron’s background will certainly be a disadvantage to him.
6 , Realist , but that’s the job of the Left wing media outlets. The interesting thing will be who the right wing press in the offices of the Daily Telegragh, the Daily Mail , the Daily Express , their Sunday stablemates , and to a lesser extent the Times and the Sunday Times go for . The Spectator will also be an intersting read in the coming months as the fog clears and the tories get to the business end of the contest
The Tories have aways chosen working class leaders to no avail, people still voted for Public School Blair. Does it matter at all? No.
Jack W [10] talks about “the business end of the contest” and - fascinating though it always is to discuss personalities - I think he’s hit on something. AFAIK no party has ever staged such a drawn-out affair as this - longer even than the US presidential “primary season.” I can’t see any candidate making a serious move until the electoral process has been decided - do we have a date for this?
8 , Realist , There is the nub of the problem for Cameron , the election is now not 4 years time . Perhaps Clake/Cameron is the dream ticket for the tories , although Ken carries an awful lot of baggage politically. There are grave risks with his leadership but also potentially a large upside - it’s a risky choice , but then politics is a high risk game.
Following on from yesterdays thread, much as i would enjoy seeing Ken going at Bambi every PMQ’s he has all the baggage of Howard on top of his Euro credentials which NuLabl would use to portray a divided party all over again. On top of this I am afraid Ken is simply too old, IIRC he would hit 70 soon after the next election
Cameron is the Forward not Back candidate to coin a phrase. A moderate, an articulate presentable face without all the history, he has 5 or 6 months to prove himself in a high profile job before the vote, his background really SHOULD not count against him. Ironically it may count against him more in a sensitive party than it would in the country
14 I agree but he really does have to prove himself. If there any doubts he must be allowed to mature like a fine wine. THe Party ended up wasting a fine talent like Hague by using him too early. That’s why my first choice is Cameron if he can hack it, but if it’s too early then Ken is the only bloke who has a chance of connecting in the Country.
Bush always won the who would you like to have a drink with contest among Americans, and even though Gordon not Tone is the opponent next time no other Tory i can see would beat him.
Besides the Conservatives have banged on about Europe and Blair has successfully divorced that in the public mind from GE Politics by corralling the big issues Euro etc into referendums. By doing so TB has made a Ken Clarkea Leadership/Premiership possible if only Ken Clarke can strop his irritating habit of making unnecessarily offensive cOmmentsa.
12 , Innocent Abroad , you’re correct this will be a long drawn out contest , but that of course is of the tories own making , and may be no bad thing as the candidates parade their wares over the coming months. Expect endless press and TV interviews and I’m afraid to say appearances on Richard and Judy and Phillip and Fern . Picture the scene as Ken descends down the catwalk runway sporting this seasons bermuda shorts , cigar in hand and brand new fedora. Or Malcolm Rikfind on the cookery slot discussing the merits of Cabinet pudding. David Davies will be on the phone-in talking to the chavs about his childhood in a single parent home ….yeah but no but yeah but…… However you’ll know a candidate is in trouble if he’s forced onto Jerry Springers new British show …..perhaps Tim Yeo on “my love childs become a vampire” …………..interesting days ahead……
cAn someone ask Guido on his Site, to make it possible to post by doing as here with email address only. Works Ok here but i guess Guido is far morea wary of m’learned friendsa.
Ken C would destroy the Party. The Cons need to find a leader who understands the need to reach out to the extra voters required, and understands the hole the party is in. Given 3+ years they will grow into the job, they need charisma, energy, and the ability to galvanise support.
18 , jeffh , ….and that person is ???? …….welcome to the club.
and that person is …. Rik W. You heard it here first!
Isn’t that a pictur of osbourne and not cameron?
20 , Sophia , He’ll need to stand in the Cheadle by-election and win or become Lord Rik of Sutton and Cheam . Now there would be a toff as tory leader….sporting forth from the red benches of their Lordships House. PMQs would be interesting….perhaps Black Rod dashing back and forth…….
If you google Cheadle Conservatives the first entry says
Cheadle Conservatives
Local political party. News, events and details of local MP.
http://www.cheadleconservatives.com/ - 11k - 7 Jun 2005 - Cached - Similar pages
21 Tom - No.
19 sadly Jack w i dont know. I dont ‘get’ DD, sort of lean towards Fox but am a floating voter - although they plan to take my vote away
Any BY Date on Cheadle?
23 - the page doesn’t currently have that bit to be fair. Although the picture of the snowboarder in the “About Us” section did the trick for me. Cheadle Hulme Tories are totally radical - how do I sign up, dude?
25 , jeffh , Why are you being disenfrachised ? Are you a loony , a peer , off to the Scrubbs or a tory party member ? Come on spill the beans . One of the first three would be more interesting but we’ll accept the latter.
Ten. Boris has all but come out for Cameron praising the Notting Hill Tories to high heaven in editorial a while back, thinly veiled code for David Cameron Now George (Gideon) Osborne has droppeda outa.
17 - I think we’ve already had that discussion with Guido on here, and he wanted to stick with requiring registration.
8. Very realistic option.
10. I believe people already see the Mail as just right wing - the one’s we need on board are the likes of Murdoch’s Sun, N of W and so on with preferably no strings attatched - only by moving onto the centre ground with a trustworthy and centrally recognised and established politician like Ken Clarke do I believe they can do this.
18. I don’t believe Ken Clarke would destroy the party at all - that is just a myth - give K C three years in the job and watch him transform the poll fortunes.
Surprised to see Oborne sticking the knife into the Notting Hill Tories specifically Osborne although interestingly he refrained from attacking Cameron. Any reason?
31 - IIRC the Sun - interesting point from the last issue of the Eye - Rebekah Wade (current Editor) has upset Rupey once too often with her editorial and story picking gaffes - the only reason she has been tolerated this long is down to her personal friendship with the Blairs - I refer the hon gentlemen to the stomach-churning gush piece before the election telling us that Tone is a sex maniac and his todge is huge….
However, with TB on the way out, and as such no real need to keep his political friends happy stateside, there is talk of Rupey dumping the useless one and replacing her with a more Tory favouring Editor, perhaps covering his bases before the next election just in case the Conservatives stand a chance of a win
Funnily enough, a former editor of the Sun who fulfils this role (happy to do his masters bidding, but also prepared to push out pro-tory rhetoric and stories) has just become available - step forward Kelvin Mackenzie…….
As we are starting to discuss a Tory Landslide next time - has anyone found a list of all seats by the margin of victory this time. I would be interested to see the list of Labour (and Lib Dem and Tory) marginals.
One aspect that will make next time very interesting is the number of seats where Labour held off the Conservatives this time by very small margins - does anyone have the details? Additionally has anyone found a site that discusses the likely impact of the proposed boundary changes?
Serious question chaps - why are elections in the UK always on a Thursday?
35 - Hi Rik , not strictly true , I remember in the late 60s some local elections in the Manchester area being held on a Saturday and a parliamentary by-election ( I forget which one ) being held on a Friday because they moved the writ in the House of Commons on the wrong day by mistake .
I think it is just one of those tradition things
34 - Mark this might help:
Seat Number Name Maj Party % Majority
1 Crawley Lab 0.1
2 Harlow Lab 0.2
3 Sittingbourne & Sheppey Lab 0.2
4 Romsey LD 0.3
5 Battersea Lab 0.4
6 Medway Lab 0.5
7 Solihull LD 0.5
8 Warwick & Leamington Lab 0.5
9 Westmorland & Lonsdale LD 0.5
10 Gillingham Lab 0.6
11 Stroud Lab 0.6
12 Hove Lab 0.9
13 Selby Lab 0.9
14 Stourbridge Lab 1.0
15 Taunton LD 1.0
16 Eastleigh LD 1.1
17 Dartford Lab 1.5
18 High Peak Lab 1.5
19 Somerton & Frome LD 1.5
20 Thanet South Lab 1.6
21 Finchley & Golders Green Lab 1.7
22 Chester Lab 2.0
23 Hereford LD 2.1
24 Cardiff North Lab 2.5
25 Carshalton & Wallington LD 2.5
26 Corby Lab 2.6
27 Wirral West Lab 2.7
28 Calder Valley Lab 2.9
29 Burton Lab 3.0
30 Portsmouth North Lab 3.0
31 Colne Valley Lab 3.1
32 Swindon South Lab 3.1
33 Perth & Perthshire North SNP 3.3
34 Wansdyke Lab 3.6
35 Dorset South Lab 3.7
36 Vale of Glamorgan Lab 3.8
37 Watford * Lab 3.9
38 Angus SNP 4.2
39 Harrow West Lab 4.3
40 Loughborough Lab 4.3
41 Torbay LD 4.3
42 Ribble South Lab 4.6
43 Broxtowe Lab 4.7
44 Enfield North Lab 4.7
45 Hastings & Rye Lab 4.7
46 Stafford Lab 4.7
47 Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South Lab 5.0
48 Nuneaton Lab 5.0
49 Bolton West Lab 5.1
50 Cheltenham LD 5.3
51 Pendle Lab 5.3
52 Chatham & Aylesford Lab 5.5
53 Cornwall North LD 5.5
54 Staffordshire Moorlands Lab 5.5
55 Dumfries & Galloway Lab 5.7
56 Swindon North Lab 5.7
57 Tamworth Lab 5.9
58 Cleethorpes Lab 6.1
59 Birmingham Edgbaston Lab 6.2
60 Hendon Lab 6.5
61 Bury North Lab 6.6
62 Redditch Lab 6.7
63 Brigg & Goole Lab 6.8
64 Sutton & Cheam LD 6.8
65 Worcester Lab 6.8
66 Brighton Kemptown Lab 6.9
67 Wolverhampton SW Lab 6.9
68 Basildon Lab 7.3
69 Richmond Park LD 7.3
70 Great Yarmouth Lab 7.4
71 Stevenage Lab 7.5
72 Warrington South Lab 7.5
73 Bedford Lab 8.0
74 Derbyshire South Lab 8.1
75 Gloucester Lab 8.2
76 Milton Keynes SW Lab 8.2
77 Bradford West Lab 8.3
78 Portsmouth South LD 8.3
79 Rossendale & Darwen Lab 8.3
80 Cheadle LD 8.5
81 Derby North Lab 8.6
82 Falmouth & Cambourne * LD 8.6
83 Halifax Lab 8.6
84 Gedling Lab 8.7
85 Conwy Lab 9.2
86 Eltham Lab 9.3
87 Harrow East Lab 9.3
88 Southport LD 9.3
89 Northampton North Lab 9.4
90 Wirral South Lab 9.4
91 Leicestershire NW Lab 9.5
92 Brentford & Isleworth Lab 9.6
93 Devon North LD 9.6
94 Elmet Lab 9.6
95 Tynemouth Lab 9.7
96 Hampstead & Highgate Lab 9.8
97 Ochil & Perthshire South * Lab 9.9
98 Bath LD 10.1
99 Brecon & Radnor LD 10.2
100 Teignbridge LD 10.2
101 Dover Lab 10.3
102 Halesowen & Rowley Regis Lab 10.5
103 Keighley Lab 10.5
104 Dudley South Lab 10.8
105 Plymouth Sutton Lab 10.8
106 Stirling Lab 10.9
107 Bolton NE Lab 11.1
108 Reading West Lab 11.1
109 Wyre Forest Ind 11.2
110 Morecambe & Lunesdale Lab 11.5
111 Brighton Pavilion Lab 11.6
112 Norwich North Lab 11.6
113 Wakefield Lab 11.9
114 Waveney Lab 11.9
115 Dewsbury Lab 12.0
116 Dorset Mid & Poole North LD 12.1
117 Winchester LD 12.1
118 Lincoln Lab 12.5
* in third place
The Parliament website General Election report is also always a good read. It has lists of seats from safest (by %) to most marginal, with info on the principal challenger. Tory held seats p105-108, Labour held p109-114, Lib Dem held p115-116, Others held p117.
http://www.parliament.uk/commons/lib/research/rp2005/rp05-033.pdf
Let me know how that Tory Landslide ‘09 which everyone is apparently starting to talk about comes along. With Brown and Davis coming in, I wonder whether p108 may be the one to watch, but it’s early days.
O/T - the nominations for the South Staffs election have closed - the list of candidates is here: http://www.sstaffs.gov.uk/
My bet on the Tories to get less than 50% may be helped by the presence of four right-wing fringe candidates.
37 You sure nUmber 47 on your list? I thought it was same Maj as Cardiff North? Also no Vale of GLamorgn or Vale of Clwyd on your list or Brecon & Radnorshire. One of the lirtle discussed aspects in the Lection the revival of the Conservative Party in Wales to the extent they bagged three seats have realistic shouts in 5 more next time, and may be on course to ovetake the Nationalists in the Assembly, the Scvots Conservatives must be geen with Envya.
I’m telling you guys - a Davis/Cameron dream ticket is the answer.
Any objections?
36 My memory a little at fault . The Blackpool North byelection was held on Wednesday March 14th 1962 the day before the famous Orpington byelection . I am sure the reason was a mistake in the moving of the writ .
“With Brown and Davis coming in” - I wonder what odds you would get of neither of them becoming leader of their party…
“I’m telling you guys - a Davis/Cameron dream ticket is the answer. Any objections?” Only from Derek Conway…
40 - you should look more carefully! Brecon is 99, Vale of Glam is 36. Vale of Clwyd is not considered a marginal on my list as the maj is 14.5%.
39 - I see Garry Bushell is standing again. He was only six weeks ago telling the people of Greenwich & Woolwich about how proud he was of his local connections….
45 Sorry but i am right aren’t Camarthen West & Pe,brokeshire South only a 2k majority or so isn’t it? Also any viewpoint on the Welsh Tories generally vis their hapless Scots CounterPaerts?
47 - Isn’t that to with the relative strength of the SNP compared to PC.
8 What KC needs is a marginal seat to focus his attention on what Conservative supporters are asking for !
41 Sound good to me
44 So I understand !
Sorry ‘8′ that should read ‘31′ !
47.”Also any viewpoint on the Welsh Tories generally vis their hapless Scots CounterPaerts? ”
The situation in Wales could become interesting in the coming weeks. Peter Law said that he is ready to support a Conservatives/Libdems/Plaid Cymru coalition for the regional government.
http://www.epolitix.com/EN/News/200506/ae56d9f7-32c7-4814-aa72-d054a9f19367.htm
47 , Realist , I think it’s also partly to do with the fact that the Tories in Scotland got the reputation of being an adjunct of the English tories and their viceral opposition to devolution of any sort . Also the Welsh tories always appeared well more Welsh and there are numerous prosperous English enclaves in Wales.
One other factor is the strength of the Lib Dems in Scotland vis Wales. It’s recently been a struggle for the Lib Dems to get more than a toe hold in Wales.
41 - the problem is the `Davis’ on the ticket. He just doesn’t cut it. Many have suggested that the Times poll yesterday put Clarke ahead because of name recognition - but Davis has been in one of the most high profile roles you can have for four years and no one knows him. If he had charisma the papers would have given him name recognition.
Tories need to get a grip on racism, homophobia and Europe. When that’s done, by all means worry about poshness.
Comment by Charyxena — 9/6/2005 @ 9:38 am
4 Where is your evidence that the Conservatives have an any more of an issue in these areas over the LD’s or Labour (Because the Guardian, Independent and BBC say so don’t count as reasons!)
51 , Andrea , just read that piece by Peter Law …ouch….Talk of the Labour Administration in Wales acting like “the Third Reich”. And the possibility of a “Rainbow Coalition” ….who’d of thought Labour might lose power in Wales.
47 - Your quite right Jack. We’re not going to go back to being a serious player in Scottish Politics untill we develop a more autonomous party. Something that I think is now inevitable.
I don’t see why it should be a problem as it would just be a return to how things were for the majority of the last century. The Scottish Tories from 1912-1965 had a seperate name, raised their own finances and were not under the control of Central Office. Give it 2 or 3 years and I think we’ll be in that position again.
Yep, from http://www.sstaffs.gov.uk/docs/SofPN%20Parl.doc - candidates and description
Reverend David Oswald BRAID - Clause 28, Children’s Protection Christian Democrats
Garry BUSHELL - English Democrats - ‘Putting England First’
Sir Patrick Thomas CORMACK - The Conservative Party Candidate
Joanne CROTTY - Liberal Democrat
Adrian Michael DAVIES - The Freedom Party
Malcolm William HURST - U.K. Independence Party
Paul KALINAUCKAS - The Labour Party Candidate
Katherine Elisabeth Jane (Commonly Known As ‘Kate’) SPOHRER - Green Party Against Airport Expansion
Tories under 50 looks possible…
42 - yes, I believe it is purely convention that dictates that elections are on a Thursday. There was a district council by-election in North Norfolk earlier in the year which was held on a Tuesday purely because a parish hall had been booked for a pantomime. People talk about weekends but it would probably raise the cost as presumably staff would be on time and a half, and I am not sure with people visiting friends and family it would raise turnout - may particularly lower it among young people.
54. Tories need to get a grip on racism, homophobia and Europe.
Is it your contention that the Tories don’t have policies on the three items in question, or is it that you prefer different policies?
42, 58 - yes, it is just tradition. Ofcourse, the general election used to be over a number of days but that stopped a long while ago
[59] I think that Charyxena thinks that since the Conservatives are in favour of all of those things but they need to put forward more forceful policies..
Anyone help, has a date been moved for Cheadle?
55.Jack W, if they will really make that “rainbow coalition”, the big question is how long will it last?
“Real Soci-alist” Peter Law and the tories together? I don’t think they’ll last long.
57 , GQ , Even without the BNP and Veritas what a wonderful range of fringe right wing candidates. The hang em and flog em brigade wont know which way to turn. I think your 50% looks pretty good GQ.
Andrea [51] - that’s brilliant! Tories in government in Wales but not in England… what Law doesn’t say is who’ll be First Minister, perhaps they could sort it out on National Lottery Live!
65.”what Law doesn’t say is who’ll be First Minister, perhaps they could sort it out on National Lottery Live! ”
but he already decided the number of ministers for each party.
The choice of the First Minister will be made in a TV reality show.
62 , Realist , No date on Cheadle yet.
63 , Andrea , Probably wont last too long , but you never know , once they’ve got their greasy hands on power , all’s to play for .
David Cameron is my choice to be our next leader if he stands. I would hope that we Conservatives could leave the class warfare bit to the Labour Party, where it belongs, and get on with the job of refashioning ourselves into the election winning political machine we were 20 years ago.
Why on earth should a good education rule someone out as prospective holder of the country’s top job? I went to a public school myself and wouldn’t put up with that nonsense from anybody. Furthermore, I don’t think that very many of the Great British public care where one studied these days either.
56 , Max , You’re right the Scottish tories have to be distinctive and independent to make headway . A single seat and 15% of the vote is a dire situation for them. The trouble is every time a English tory questions devolution , as happened recently you just know thousands of votes fall away north of the border. Another problem is the relative strength of both the SNP and the Lib Dems . It’s going to be a hard nut to crack for you but you’ve got to start somewhere.
68 , AHM , I wonder if you would advise us why you think Cameron is the man for the job , What qualities and policies do you think he bring to the table ?
With Riftkind appointing Crispin Blunt to run his campaign and Fox appointing Chris Grayling. Which other other MP’s are already definitely in one of the contenders camps ?
70 - Very intelligent and shrewd, relatively charismatic, moderate, young, good speaker, not tarnished by major years and has a full head of hair. Negatives: public school (even worse Eton educated) and should get rid of the toff quiff and jumpers and ties. I am wasted in my job, I should go into consultancy.
64 - South Staffs 2001 result as follows:
Patrick Cormack Conservative 21,295 50.5 +0.5
Paul Kalinauckas Labour 14,414 34.2 -0.5
Jo Harrison Liberal Democrat 4,891 11.6 +0.3
Mike Lynch UK Independence 1,580 3.7
Looks very feasible indeed for the Tories to not get over 50% with more right-wing fringe parties
69.”Another problem is the relative strength of both the SNP ”
SNP targeted well at this election. They got the votes where they needed them. They % of votes fell in 49 seats out 59, but they were able to gain 2 seats.
74 - long term, though, not necessarily good news for the SNP!
70 - He’s young, on the moderate wing of the party, entered Parliament in 2001 and thus cannot be lumbered with any baggage from the days of the last Conservative government. Highly intelligent with a remarkably focused mind (gleaned from conversations I’ve had with him personally) and he understands the realities of modern politics and how the media have to be courted and used. No candidate is perfect, his age may count against him with some, as may a perceived ‘lack of experience’.
I must say that I disagree with Sophia in that I don’t count his education against him, and I don’t think many people would. That’s another of our ‘hang ups’ we need to work on if there are many more thinking this, I suppose. And Sophia, his wardrobe looks remarkably familiar to me … I quite like it, in fact!
74 , Andrea , Good point about the SNP . I think Scotland provided a very interesting sub plot to the overall GE , if our Scottish colleaugues would allow me to say. - There was some interesting tactical voting in Scotland . It appears Scottish voters are still voting against the tories in huge numbers but also in many seats the voters are also putting a tactical squeeze on Labour . The Lib Dems especially and the SNP should be salivating at the prospect of the next GE , let alone the Hollyrode elections in a couple of years.
76 , AHM , Thanks for that , I think his education may only hurt him at the margin . As for the wardrobe I think we’d better bow to Sophia’s clearly more refined sense of sartorial elagence.
75.” long term, though, not necessarily good news for the SNP! ”
yes, many of these seats were hopeless for them to win anyway(except in the case of a SNP landslide)
78 - Whatever for? No woman, no matter how modern and tasteful is going to come between me and my plus fours!
80 , AHM , I’m sure we look forward to seeing you at the PB.com party in your plus fours . What a sight it will be with you and Tabman . He in his pixie boots , eye-liner , frilly shirt and gold braid and you the re-incarnation of Bobby Locke !!
71 - Eric Forth, Andrew Mitchell, Derek Conway and Philip Davies for Davis.
54 All you have to do is read the discussions here to see there’s a problem.
Also although I don’t think Howard’s campaign was racist, it was designed to please racist. The Tories now have all the racist votes. The need to get back the people the racist campaign sacared off.
Surely the school Cameron went to is less important than that he is so inexperienced on the front bench? In a few years’ time I can’t image his posh accent would be a problem at all, but at the moment he just seems a bit jumped-up (as does Osborne). A toffee-nosed accent plays badly if it suggests someone was promoted early because of the old-boy network, but once he’s perceived to have ‘paid his dues’ on the front bench it should be an assert, if not used with arrogance but with a genuine air of a gentleman.
Eric Forth and Derek Conway are the two biggest plotters in the party, they more than anyone have saddled the Conservatives with the ‘disloyal bunch of b@stards’ tag.
Its a pity Conway managed to find a seat in 2001 IMHO.
85 - “Its a pity Conway managed to find a seat in 2001 IMHO.” Totally agree.
83. Despite the fact that Howard opened his comments by categorically stating that it was not a racist ideal to be talking about immingration, we now have it from the ‘Oracle’ that his campaign was designed to appeal to racists. All I would comment is that it takes one to know one!
85 - Conway did play a major role in getting rid of IDS - for all conservatives should be grateful. Repaying IDS for when he was one of ” the bunch of disloyal tory b@stards “, and Conway was a whip promoting loyalty !
‘The Tories now have all the racist votes’.
Thats a bit sweeping isn’t it? I personally doubt the Conservatives now have more racist voters than they did in 2001 or 1997, if the BNP vote had directly transfered to the party in places like Keighley or Barking I might be more inclined to agree with you.
88 - And he is the reason you will not get a Davis/Cameron “dream ticket”.
90 - Who knows in a party that could once produce a Clarke - Redwood ticket !
88- Conway should learn some loyalty (and this extends to more people than Davis and his backers) and learn to support the leader of his party who put in a creditable performance at the election.
IDS needed to go and that was clear to the party as a whole, not just Conway and Forth.
I really, really thought the party had got over this mindless backstabbing, stupidity knows no bounds though.
An excellent piece in “The Times” by Peter Riddell on the present state of the Tory party leadership race and also the longer term prospect of the tories . The last paragragh is telling : -
” yet underlying the party leadership contest and the debate about future strategy is an unspoken question. Can the Tories win on their own ? The assumption so far is they can. All the eager new Tory MPs believe that before they are in their late forties, they may become ministers. Perhaps. But winninng outright next time looks very unlikely. The potential Tory leaders need to explain how they would handle a hung Parliament. Are they ready for an era of multiparty politics whwere no single party wins over 40% of the vote? The route to No 10 could be longer and more winding than it was for Margaret Thatcher 30 years ago. ”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk
Go to Comment and Analysis and click Peter Riddell
92 - Yes but Forth & Conway actually did something about IDS. Too many MP’s were sitting on their hands being loyal to the leader, even if that was to the detriment of the party.
Howard did bring us back to our customary 33%, but then spoiled his good work by annoucing a 6 month leadership contest which would always be divisive and take the heat off a weakened PM.
As a slight diversion, I looked at the Mori site. I’ve not seen much comment on the poll figures from 19-23 May which were:
Labour 37 Conservative 30 Lib Dem 26
Put those into Baxter with no swing and Labour’s majority goes up to 100 with the Tories losing all their gains from May 5th - Lib Dems advance to 77. Meaningless I know but one of the features of the last Parliament was the LD ability to break above 20% and hold there. If the Party were to break above 25% and maintain that level of support, that would make it almost impossible for the Tories to win.
A lot of people on this site (especially the Tory-inclined) seem to assume a rise in the Conservative vote next time. Why? The fall in the Labour vote share from 2001 went as much to the LDs and others as to the Tories.
94 - ” but Forth & Conway actually did something about IDS” I think you will find a few others did something about IDS, but in a much more civilised way. Conway and Forth have been backstabbing since Michael Howard was elected as well.
94 , John T , “….howard did bring us back to our customary 33% ”
Would IDS have done any worse ? Certainly the poll ratings didn’t move. I have to say seeing a party leader ousted in what was effectively a parliamentary coup wasn’t very edifying , which ever way you dress it up.
Sophia- I’m interested in your comments about Conway nixing the Davis/Cameron dream ticket. Any inside track on that? Also although Conway has sometimes got a bit overexcited during the last few weeks, remember he was treated abominably by the Portillistas during Hague’s reign- he’s probably got those scar things all over his back.
95 - that effect (winning party up, losing party down) usually occurs in the aftermath of GEs. Too early to take any meaning from.
93 - This is exactly what I was arguing on here last night to be told by Rik and others that 40% was quite achievable by the Conservatives . I remain unconvinced .
95 , Stodge , I must say that poll went right under my radar, straw in the wind after the election , but the Lib Dems will be pleased if they continue to stay well above the 20% level and provide them with a springboard into the parliament.
Don’t get me wrong this 6 month interregnum is a serious (and uncharacteristic) error made by Howard without due consultation of the Shadow Cabinet, however the image the party projects to the media is critical right now and trying to get rid of a relatively successful leader will make the party look spineless and disloyal.
I’m sure you will agree that would resonate very badly with the electorate.
98 - Derek Conway felt (I presume still does) that David Cameron (among others) shouldn’t have promoted to the shadow cabinet a couple of years back.
100 , Mark , Certainly if the Lib Dems and Others stay above 30% the prospect of Labour or the Tories reaching 40% is difficult to see.
Labour 37 Conservative 30 Lib Dem 26
Doubt we will see the Conservatives much above 30/31 until they elect a new leader.
Might place a few quid on a few of long shots…
David Willetts at 33/1 looks tempting, then again Alan Duncan at 22/1 and Julie Kirkbride and Caroline Spelman at 66/1 might be worth a shot. You never know…
102. You’re wrong. The bulk of this so called interregnum takes place over the Summer when all due respect no on pays any attention least to a party noty in Govt in the immedaie aftermath of the Election. MH would have been besieged by questions about his intention if he’d fudged. The beauty of it is the Tories can have fiecre policy argument over the Summer silly season when no one is watching, and the new 50+plus MP’s can chat to each other and the Candidates and come to a Considered Choice. Act in haste repent at leisure, this choice has to be right and it’s worth sacrificing time, although the dog days of summer is no sacrifice.
Most people ar folowing the nonsense the Economist put out by comparing it with Callaghan whop stayed on for 18 MONTHS, mind you they’ve hated MH ever since he appointed Lynton Crosby which links to their long standing emnmity to John Howard in Oz.
But i hope you get the point the next several months are dead time politically for the Tories anyway, MH is making best use of it. A new Leader will be in place by the end of the year comfortably in tiome for when GB starts tapping his watch and asking TBV about his departure timetablea.
105 , Jon W , you’re right we’re not going to get a proper feel for the state of the parties until a few months after the tories elect a new leader . But heaven help whoever it is if they haven’t shifted the polls out of their box after 12 - 18 months or TB will be on his sixth tory leader before he leaves office ! My god I can feel tory supporters swallowing hard….
103, Sophia- thanks, I didn’t know that. But forgive and forget-they’re all men and women of goodwill (!) and I’m sure Davis could keep him on board with some suitable preferment- he’s had a pretty lean time under Howard.
102 - I had hoped Howard would agree to a compromise - having a new leader in place by October. Conference is going to be such a wasted opportunity - it is our big chance to present ideas and attack labour - but instead it will just be about the leadership battle.
103 - I don’t think Cameron will last long in politics if that is the only reason for not joining a Davis ticket - that one of Davis’ friends said something less than positive about him.I think he might be a bit more grown up that !
Its the other way round John T!
I’m not against the concept of an interregnum per-se, indeed I am favourable to a 2/3 period of reflection of future direction/leader etc etc however I felt this process needed to have taken place before the party conference where we could have unveiled a new leader with new ideas (whoever that might be) instead of continued navel gazing which lets a Prime Minister, who is seriously damaged goods, set the agenda of the new Parliament.
106 , Jon W , I plead with you to save your dosh , I think there is as much chance of Willetts, Kilbride , Duncan and Spellman being tory leader as there is of Anne Widdecombe flying out to Celebrity Love Island and rogering Abbi Titmuss !!
113 - “Anne Widdecombe flying out to Celebrity Love Island and rogering Abbi Titmuss” - horay, political betting has turned into popbitch. Now, how the hell did Brian Harvey run himself over.
Jack W- Of course you are right in respect of Kirkbride and Spelman!
Willetts might be a good compromise choice and Duncan would give the party a new image (which the party may or may not want), so I personally wouldn’t write those two off…
The only way I would rip up my membership card and vote Labour is if Widdecombe became leader! Just thought I would share that!
114 , Sophia , is Brian Harvey the brother of Lady Victoria Harvey ?
107 - the interregnum does cover one non-by-election (not very important), one by-election which is winnable on paper at least, and the party conference season. So, although I agree there is limited focus on the opposition for a few months after a General Election, there will be a couple of occasions at least when having a proper leader would be very much preferable. And that’s just the known events - if a crisis blows up for Labour the Tories will be less well positioned to make capital.
Totally agree James, and Cheadle is very winnable…
119. Er you mean “barely” winnable don’t youa?
I love the fact that MPs now have their own websites to make themselves look even more ridiculous. Note how huge Julie Kirkbride’s photo gallery is.
http://www.alanduncan.org.uk/
http://www.carolinespelman.com/
http://www.davidwilletts.org.uk/
http://www.bromsgrove-conservatives.org.uk/mp/biography.htm
120- No. I would say we have about a 30/40% chance.
Brian Harvey is definitely not related to Lady Victoria Hervey. He is the ubber chav ex pop star from E17.
Good old Julie! She gave a speech to my old school (in Bromsgrove) and was stunningly dull, nevertheless she is a very hard working MP and deserves a place in any future Shadow Cabinet.
123 , Sophia , “…uber chav ex pop star from E17 ” it’s a whole different world to me. Don’t think we’ll see that on the CVs of the contenders for the Tory party leadership though.
Julie, a working class girl made good. Although you couldn’t tell from her accent - that’s what going to Oxbridge does to you.
125 - Nicholas Soames is a fan of Dido supposedly. That is as rock and roll as it gets.
Having a chav as leader of the Conservative party would re-connect them to urban Britain like never before…
127 - And if they did vote Tory they would get their head kicked in. Note to Andrew Rosindell: not a good idead.
From “Are you thinking what we’re thinking?” to “Wot you lookin’ at?”
There’d be no more Labour victories in Medway, though.
26 , Sophia , ” Nicholas Soames is a fan of Dido apparently…”
Is Dido some new form of Greek food that he’s been stuffing or did you miss a letter out and you’ve seen Nicholas Soames in Soho ?!?!
http://www.direct-democracy.co.uk/display_page.asp?section=analysis&id=2
I think some non Tories should look at this - Sounds as if they are seriously worried, but whether worried enough to actually do any thing - that is the question.
Julie came out for David Davis a week or 2 back didn’t she. Awful pictures on her website though.
130 - I hope no stuffing has been involved!
129. ” There’d be no more Labour victories in Medway, though”
Book Value, don’t rule out Bob Andrews-Marshall so soon. He could win again in 2009 by 2 votes after conceding defeat at least twice during the election night and blaming Blair and Brown for his defeat.
Or maybe he’ll retire (he’ll be something like 65 years old in 2009) and he’ll write a new book titled ” how to become a perfect rebel”
121, yes Sophia. Some MPs websites are ridiculous.
132 - She did. Going full circle, I believe Derek Conway is a personal friend and helped out at her wedding.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml;jsessionid=IYRLKBSEAWATXQFIQMGCM5OAVCBQUJVC?xml=/news/2005/06/09/uheseltine.xml&sSheet=/portal/2005/06/09/ixportaltop.html - Heseltine, the one who loves to talk, says they need a “bloke” as leader.
131 , Icarus , It’s a very compelling piece , the language is a bit more stark and robust but essentially the author is saying exactly what Michael Gove said in “The Times” yesterday.
138 , GQ , Is the link longer than the article ??
140 - No, but possibly as interesting!
121. If you take a look at MPs websites (and especially the picture galleries), you’ll find some strange things:
Clare Short (maybe she has found a new career)
http://www.epolitix.com/NR/rdonlyres/9D4A2861-4676-4F27-8981-71086133D420/0/ClareShortsodcutting.jpg
Chris Bryant:
http://www.chrisbryantmp.co.uk/images/cb2_large.jpg
Bob Marshall Andrews:
http://www.epolitix.com/NR/rdonlyres/4C05E513-D6F3-494B-88D8-993C167CEBF5/0/bobmarshallandrewsmarsh.jpg
141 , GQ , Perhaps the link is a cunning coded message from Tarzan to his annointed successor - “The Con Vinci Code “
The Hezza piece was taken out of an in depth discussion with numerous Tory voices in the Spectator (Current issue) which revealed precisely nothing, other than the Tories have no policies at all.
Frankly I wish that both Hezza and Tebbit would just shut up. Both live in the past, and have little interesting to say.
As for Cameron, the jury is still out. The next few months will decide his fate.
Surely it’s more important for the Tories to have their period of soul-searching and get the right leader, whoever that is, than to attack Labour effectively now? It’s only if there’s a big Labour disaster that it could be a problem. E.g. a major economic problem of some kind over the summer, and the lack of a leader prevents them attacking Labour properly, so that either the Lib Dems get the opportunity or it goes begging.
Interesting about that opinion poll in Mori. Labour 37, Con 30, LD 26. I agree that there’s no necessary reason why the Tories should rise this Parliament, any more than after 2001 or 1997. However it is very likely that Labour will fall. Whether the support goes Tory, Lib Dem, other or stay at home, is up for grabs. I do think that the Tories are probably starting to get themselves in a state of mind to actually really try and win again though.
145.”Interesting about that opinion poll in Mori. Labour 37, Con 30, LD 26. ”
Is it a new opinion poll?
Even notwithstanding the meaninglessness of post-election polls with the Tories effectively without a leader, MORI’s election perfomance (Tories 5 points ahead! Labour 10 points ahead! Monster Loonies to take Sedgefield!) hardly lends much credibility to this poll. Come next year, if ICM or YouGov are reporting these figures, I would be much more worried.
146 , Andrea , No it’s a MORI pollfrom the 19-23 May.
147. between the tory lead and the more than 10% Lab lead, I feared that Mori would have come out with a Greens lead.
148. thanks
In their first poll after the 2001 General Election MORI had Labour with a 24% lead so this is a huge improvement for the Tories!
This is all quite meaningless at this stage.
As it is not as by election but considering that Labour may plumit as the expence of the LD in south staff’s will it make any differance the the GE results statistically?
I’m flattered that Peter Riddell reads what I write here, even if the Tories on the site are too busy discussing fancy dress to do so
151 - As I have pointed out before Staffordshire is for some reason the weakest county for the Lib Dems and I will be surpised if they hang on to 3rd place let alone take substantial votes from Labour
153 , Mark , I’d be staggered if the Lib Dems fall from third place , especially in the “by-election-ish” circumstances of the poll. I think they’ll put a lot of effort into the seat to avoid an election setback. Best bet is the 50% or less that GQ has lumped on against the tories.
Thinking about Cheadle for a second…IF the Tory ex-MP stands and IF they have a decent campaign is it not moderately likely he will take back the seat?
154 - Hi Jack Agree that the Lib Dems will fight hard but it is pretty stony ground and the Freedom Party only just failed by 80 votes to take one of the County seats . I am not sure how well organised they are to run a constituency wide campaign .
154 - Just to note, I’ve not bet on them getting less than 50% (thinking of Lorcan at 39, perhaps?) Was merely saying it could happen. I’m no gambler!
155 - Much could depend on who the Lib Dems choose as candidate , but with the Conservatives effectively leaderless , I would expect a comfortable Lib Dem hold
155 , Jon , Yes it’s possible , also depends who the Lib Dems choose and also the shape of the tory Leadership contest when the election takes place. My own feel this far out is that it’ll be a Lib Dem hold. It has something of the Penhaligon/Truro look about it , however there’s a long way to go on this one and we may be suprised.
157 , Sorry GQ , got you mixed up with Lorcan.
Mike @150, after 9/11 MORI gave Labour a 32% lead!
BTW, I’m afraid I can’t make it on 25th June, as I shall be visiting my in-laws that weekend.
Mike, I agree that opinion polls just after elections are highly abnormal but they do give us some idea of what the public is making of what it’s reading and hearing in the media. During a Tory leadership election I would have expected them to be doing worse, and I think it’s quite a dignified debate so far. I’m surprised how well the Lib Dems are doing.
Has anyone opened a market on Cheadle yet?
By the way, on things like the Tory leadership contest, who is supplying all the buy odds? There must be someone laying all the outsiders at enormous odds so that the more amateurish gamblers amongst us can put down more normal bets on them. Is it a few individuals that reckon they can play the market? Or is it people who reckon they can make certain money on one individual or another?
I really dont think we can read anything at all into a single poll from one of the most erratic pollsters during the run up to the election. Show me ICM, YouGov and NOP as well and I would be interested!
Rik, that’s true about it only being one poll of course. But as you say, if people were commissioning a whole batch of polls it would be interesting even at this time of a Parliament, admittedly with no predictive power. I definitely prefer the betting markets to the polls as predictors of outcome.
I’m surpised the odds are so close between the major parties for the next general election.
As was said, polls a few months in to a new Conservative Leader’s reign are when they’ll be more noteworthy. Then again after Blair leaves, whenever that may be (10 years as PM, perhaps)
Any interesting local by-elections today ?
I also think that the headline poll figures aren’t very significant. But there are some interesting data affecting our discussions if you look at the details:
1. Among ‘all voters’ (as opposed to ‘certain to vote’) the Tories are just 1% ahead of the LibDems (27-26). I’d expect a poll at some stage to show the reverse, and that will then be a headline which will provoke a good deal of newsprint. It bears out my view that the LibDems really shouldn’t have much trouble in Cheam.
2. Asked what issues are important, no issue is mentioned by more than 40%. This confirms my impression that people aren’t especially exercised by anything at the moment.
3. There are several issues on which the Tories have a significant lead among those who think the issue very important (notably constitutional matters and defence). But Europe is not one of them: among those who think it very important, only 20-19 prefer their view.
169 , Nick , Cheam !!! Dreaming of Rik again … I take it you mean Cheadle ?
I see John Redwood and Peter Hitchens are on Question Time shortly , together with Jane Fonda !! Should be interesting.
169-”Among ‘all voters’ (as opposed to ‘certain to vote’) the Tories are just 1% ahead of the LibDems (27-26). I’d expect a poll at some stage to show the reverse, and that will then be a headline which will provoke a good deal of newsprint. It bears out my view that the LibDems really shouldn’t have much trouble in Cheam.”
4 days before the election (in the poll for the Financial Times), MORI gave the tories only 2% aheaded the Libdems between “all voters”
168. Jack, there are some local by-elections today. Interesting ? Judge for yourself:
Aberdeenshire SDC, Huntley East
Party Defending Seat: Con.
Borders SDC, Kilknowe &Clovenfords
Party Defending Seat: Ind
Purbeck DC, Castle Ward
Party Defending Seat: Ld.
Purbeck DC, Lytchett Matravers
Party Defending Seat: Ind
Next week there are two by-elections in Brent and one in Croydon.
169. Nick, the Lib Dems didn’t have much trouble in Cheam, and probably won’t in Cheadle either
173 , Lorcan , Many thanks , may I ask where you sourced the info ?
Jack, I had to go over to the dark side - http://www.aldc.org/ (scroll down to the ‘forthcoming by-elections’ link)
btw, does anyone know the all time low turnout for a local election ? I think Fieldway ward in Croydon could struggle to get 10% next week.
175 , Lorcan , Many thanks for the link . I’ll have to be careful with it - all those tempting morsels from the dark side of the Lib Dems - I can feel the heaving breath of a black masked one - is it Tabman or Book Value ?
Have just seen the intro to Question Time - why does Peter Hitchens always look like a smacked arse ? At least John Redwood managed a smile , BTW hasn’t his hair gone grey recently ? Must be all that extra rumpy pumpy.
To illustrate how this poll shouldn’t cause excitement, I’ve summoned Peter Snow to my keyboard:
On the first Mori poll after the 2001 election, the Tories were on 25, Labour on 49, and the Liberal Democrats on 19 percent. This means that the Tories ended up - four years later - eight points up, Labour were twelve points down, and the Liberal Democrats put on three and a half points. So from our poll today, if the same happens again - and I stress that this is just a bit of fun - the Conservatives will poll 38%, Labour 25% and the Liberal Democrats 27% at the next election.
Going to the swingometer, this gives - with adjustments for the boundary changes - … 353 seats for the Conservatives, 172 for Labour and 92 for the Liberal Democrats, a majority of 56 for the Tories in the new 650-seat Parliament.
So it’s good news for Labour because they’re further ahead than they were on May 5th.
It’s good news for the Lib Dems, according to Nick (and to be honest, a Lib Dem poll score of 26% is not exactly bad news for Charles Kennedy).
And it’s a swing of 8.5% to the Tories from the equivalent poll after the 2001 GE.
On the basis of this poll, I confidently predict that the result will be between a Labour majority of 80 and a Tory majority of 70. And the Libe Dems will get between 40 and 100 seats.
Careful Jack W, you’ll be one of us before you know it!
178 , Andy , wonderful stuff , off to the beeb for you .
179 , Book Value , Ah it was you Book Value !! I also heard horrible slurping noises , it was obviously Jabba the Hut AKA Nicholas Soames.
173, the first interesting bunch of local by-elections takes place next week, when we have no fewer than 4 in London.
Croydon, Fieldway should be a fairly easy hold for Labour, unless turnout plummets. Brent, Preston should be a fairly easy hold for the Conservatives, unless Labour’s general election vote turns out en masse.
But Barking, Goresbrook, will see the BNP struggling to retain a seat due to the resignation of Clueless Kelly. A BNP hold, or a vote of 30%+, would suggest a strong performance in Barking & Dagenham next May. And Brent, Fryent, should indicate whether or not Labour will hold Brent next May. A Conservative win, or a narrow Labour win, will suggest that they won’t.
Peter Hitchens is a very angry man. Needs a chill pill. I read his column on a Sunday searching for a positive comment about something or someone and after 4 years, I’m still looking. Redwood speaks well but could you imagine him as PM. Sends a shudder down the spine.
182 , Sean , Thanks for that info on London , will look out for the results next Friday.
183 , Woody662 , you’re right Hitchens is so pent up with anger , he’s against so much but what is he for ?
177. Jack, switched on the TV to watch Question Time, but I’m in Dublin this week and only get BBC Northern Ireland which is showing their local version ‘Let’s Talk’ - this week’s panel is more interesting than usual - Tony Benn, Tyrone Howe (ex Ireland and British Lions, now UUP councillor), an artist who wants to tow an iceberg into Belfast Lough, and Billy Leonard (Sinn féin’s protestant councillor who used to be an RUC reservist).
182. Sean, presumably the LDs aren’t putting up a candidate in Goresbrook. Regardless of the shortcomings of the BNP councillor, there is a tendency after a BNP gain for voters of others parties to rally around the best placed candidate (usually Labour) to defeat them at the next election.
That said, Barking and Dagenham is the sort of place where the Tories could make inroads with Davis (or Forth or Rosindell) as leader, but they would lose more votes elsewhere.
what is he for ?
Reversing every social change that’s taken place since c.1450.
The BNP won 52% last time Goresbrook was contested, last September. Personally, I prefer to see the mainstream parties contest a seat as per normal, against the BNP, rather than trying to get non-BNP voters to unite behind one candidate. I think the BNP will lose in any event, because their outgoing councillor was useless. But they’ll probably still poll a fair-sized vote.
There has, for many years, been a big latent Conservative vote in Barking & Dagenham. Yet, in most years, the Conservatives only contested a minority of council seats. It’s only recently that the Conservatives have begun to tap into their potential support.
186 , Lorcan , Your NI question time sounds great especially Billy Leonard and Tyrone Howe !! Meanwhile on the mainland Jane Fonda has told Hitchens to read one of his brothers books - he didn’t look happy ! Shes’ just call Hitchens ” A right wing nut”
Rosindell and Forth as the tory dream ticket - Gulp !!
Don’t think Jane Fonda likes man.
and Peter Hitchins head might explode after the programme
190 , woody662 , she certainly didn’t like one.
I read Peter Hitchens’ book “the Abolition of Britain” and thought he was a genius. Then I saw him on question time, and concluded that he was a petulant buffoon. He should stick to writing, it’s what he does best.
Jane Fonda obviously does her homework (or someone does it for her) - Peter Hitchens is little more than his jealousy of his brother, poor soul…
There can’t be much worse than your whole view on life is due to being jealous of a “drink-soaked former Trotskyist popinjay”…
Anyone have anything to say about Alan Duncans bid to be Tory leader - he certainly seems to out of a different mould to the rest and can reach out to non Tory voters - whilst at the same time sticking to conservative values . Unlikely to win but if he runs a good campaign it could shift Tory thinking onto those areas that they need to focus on to win - Health , education , poverty etc . Could the modernisers swing behing him in the abscence of any other credible candidates emerging . If they do it could liven up the spread betting market - 0.5 to 2.5 binary bet on IG Index for Alan Duncan . Can not go too far wrong with this - but is there any prospect of upside ?
There was a good Guardian piece about the Hitchenses the other day:
http://books.guardian.co.uk/hay2005/story/0,,1496348,00.html
173. The Conservatives won Castle Ward. Turnout 46.4%
Con 418 votes
Libdems 230
Lab 74
http://www.purbeck-dc.gov.uk/council/item.asp?strareano=25_10_3&intelement=7734
Libdems won Lytchett Matravers. Turnout 37.5%
Libdems 688 votes
Con 397
http://www.purbeck-dc.gov.uk/council/item.asp?strareano=25_10_3&intelement=7735
BV [197] - many thanks for that link. I have a Chris Hitchens story for the pb.com party…
75-”long term, though, not necessarily good news for the SNP”
I looked closely at the SNP results. There are 2 seats in particular where the fall in their % of votes killed their chances to win these seats in the near future: Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey and Dumfries and Galloway.
In Dumfries and Galloway their fall could have saved the Labour candidate: it seems that their votes went to Labour (so this supports Jack W’s theory about Scottish voters still voting against the tories in huge numbers).
In Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey, it seems that SNP’s lost votes went to the Libdems. The Libdems were in second and so the best placed to oust Labour (maybe a bit of tactical vote)
And I was at Oxford at the same time as Chris Hitchins - he was friends with a chap called Howard Marks at the time.
Alan Duncan will not get it because you can be as modern as you like but a party will not get elected to government if the leader is openly ‘Stoke-on Trent’. Ok maybe for the greens and even the Lib dems but not for the tories or indeed labour
What are the latest odds being offered on the result of the Fieldway By Election tomorrow?
I reckon you will be pushed into third place Tony. You heard it hear first!