How Davis’s challengers are shaping up
July 22nd, 2005
Davis’s challengers - RED David Cameron: BLUE Ken Clarke: BLACK Liam Fox
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Clarke and Fox barely make an impact
The moves to get the Liam Fox and Ken Clarke bandwagons moving in the Tory leadership contest have so far failed to impress the punters who are continuing to rate David Cameron as the man most likely to take on David Davis.
Our latest chart shows the implied probablility of the three main challengers to Davis in the Tory leadership contenders and is based on the best betting prices. This is how gamblers are rating the chances.
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Although Liam Fox and Ken Clarke have seen a little movement in their direction the Shadow Education Secretary, David Cameron, has now moved to above 20% for the first time in the race and his position looks as though it is firming up.
A lot is going to depend on how the contenders do at the party conference in nine weeks time and this, to a certain extent, will be affected by media coverage which we think will favour Cameron. The Daily Telegraph could be very important and there have been signs that it is softening it previous pro-Davis position.
The normal rule for Tory leadership contests, of which there have been quite a few in recent years, is that the early favourite does not do it. Betting against David Davis seems a reasonable strategy and you can do this by LAYING him with Betfair or SELLING him on the Binary Bet spread market. Currently the Binary Bet price is more attractive.
Mike Smithson
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As I have said in my previous posts, cameron is the only candidate that can be selected that would appeal to floating voters in the Midlands, Northwest, Yorks, Scotland and Ulster. Yes that’s right I want the 15,000 votes we used to get in places in Ulster that still vote UU (only the one left.). The only other choice to do this is clarke and he’ll split the party.
Couldn’t agree more with you on Cameron, Stuart. I’m still not convinced that KC would split the party though, 40% of the membership still voted for him in 2001.
It’ll be a long while before we start winning seats in Ulster again but your quite right their are a number of seats their that we could win if the party political system was to become normalised, North Down being the most obvious one.
I look forward to that day max, then i will know we’ve made it. Meanwhile we have to get to this position. You do have a valid point about Clarke, although I still think that his election will lead to a split in the party and a possible sudden drop in the party membership. We need to keep those we’ve got and pick up those we’ve lost
You honestly believe that Cameron would secure votes in the North of the country? What waffle!
Yes - In the kind of middle-class constituencies we used to win in the North of England and Scotland I think DC is considerably more appealing than David Davis. I’m not saying we’re going to start winning seats in Newcastle, Manchester and Liverpool but in places like Bolton West, Bury North, Eastwood, Edinburgh S. etc.
4 - With due apologies to James, whose work this is (and which I have modified slightly):
Dear Elector,
Can it really be four years since last I visited the Northern Wastes?
As I sit in a leather armchair in my Gentleman’s Club on Pall Mall penning these words to you, I muse on how the years have flown by and on how, preoccupied with important affairs of state, I have given barely a thought to your quaint towns and the numerous queer and charming people therein. Even when the demands of high office have eased so as to allow me time to visit your boroughs, matters of personal business have intervened and, alas, commerce has called me away.
But I have never forgotten the words of my mentor, Col. Sir Tufton Bufton. “The people of the North,” he said, “may be curious and wretched souls, but they are of good English stock and the backbone of the Empire. It is our role to be concerned with matters of statecraft. But we must not be dismissive of - although neither must we trouble ourselves unduly with - their petty, dreary, everyday concerns.” How right he was.
A word about my opponents. The Socialist candidate is a modest man of modest abilities. He says he is a teacher but not at one of our great public schools but at a “comprehensive”, a simple factory for tomorrow’s beasts of burden. He is equipped neither intellectually nor morally for a career in public service. As for The Liberal Candidatrix, it is laughable that a mere woman could cope with the pressures and vicissitudes of public life.
No, dear elector, you must re-elect a man of dignity and honour. The type of man who has made this nation what it is today. I am that man.
Yes I do think in seats such as Morecombe, Tyneside, Westmoorland, North Perth, Harrogate, Bury North and South, Bolton west and North east David Cameron could just be the person to capture their votes. These are Gentle middle class areas. Just one correction Max Bolton and Bury are in Greater Manchester.
5 - you can imagine the sort of election adress that might be written (with thanks to James, whose work this is):
Dear Elector in the constituency of Grimupnorth East,
Can it really be four years since last I visited the fair city of Grimupnorth?
As I sit in a leather armchair in my Gentleman’s Club on Pall Mall penning these words to you, I muse on how the years have flown by and on how, preoccupied with important affairs of state, I have given barely a thought to your quaint town and the numerous queer and charming people therein. Even when the demands of high office have eased so as to allow me time to visit the borough, matters of personal business have intervened and, alas, commerce has called me away.
But I have never forgotten the words of my late father, and your former MP, Sir Tufton Bufton. “The people of Grimupnorth,” he said, “may be curious and wretched souls, but they are of good English stock and the backbone of the Empire. It is our role to be concerned with matters of statecraft. But we must not be dismissive of - although neither must we trouble ourselves unduly with - their petty, dreary, everyday concerns.” How right he was.
A word about my opponents. The Socia-list Candidate is a modest man of modest abilities. He says he is a teacher but not at one of our great public schools but at a “comprehensive”, a simple factory for tomorrow’s beasts of burden. He is equipped neither intellectually nor morally for a career in public service. As for The Liberal Candidatrix, it is laughable that a mere woman could cope with the pressures and vicissitudes of public life.
No, dear elector, you must re-elect a man of dignity and honour. The type of man who has made this nation what it is today. I am that man.
6 - Bolton and Bury are in Lancashire! I have no truck with the wreckers of 1974 …
You soft southern shandy drinker, Your views of the north are a disgrace. I think you’ll find many of the Lancastrian towns are very affluant and have given rise to many important people. Not only is Bolton the home of Robert peel but also the torpedo and Black pudding. Bolton and Bury have collectively given you the Spinning Mule, Jenny, Arkwright Crompton, Lord Lever. Winston Churchill was MP for Manchester and Oldham. Sir you have dishonoured the fair North and I demandsatisfaction. Rules will be old Naval rules as the offended party I will choice the destination, my old Ship, HMS Eaglet in Liverpool. You may select the time Dawn or Sunset.
1&2 Men after my own heart, although i think 2 has it right on KC. The only way he would be come Leader would be to reassure others by the offering of a few Olive Branches, that he wouldn’t split the party, were he to remain intransigent enough to split it, he wouldn’t gain the support he needed to win in the first Place. Why have Clarke’s odds not moved if Icarus reported yesterday that his Odds on betfair had halveds?
Anyways Max&Spenketh i think we all agree Clarke&orCameron if there is to be any hope. anyone outside those two and the next election might as well be conceded now.
5 , Max . I’m still in a state of shock at your hasty refusal of my kind offer at Waverley !!
BTW looking at Edinburgh South result at the GE this has all the making of a Lib Dem gain and a big squeeze of the 24% Tory vote . Indeed saving Edinburgh SW , all the Edinburgh seats may fall to the Lib Dems and even the aforementioned SW isn’t totally out of the question , more long term ! I can hear cheering from West Bridgford !
9 - Sir, I demand you retract that. As a former resident of both Salford and Sale, born of Trafford and Pendlebury stock, I am well acquainted with the fine Metropolis of Manchester, which acted as a beacon for Liberalism and Free Trade throguhout the C19th and is doing so again in the C21st. This is the city of Cobden who overturned the Tory Corn Laws once and for all!
Dear tabman
Your right though on Heath’s 74 destruction of Lancashire. i have no time for it i’m a proud lancastrian of cheshire, Yorkshire and scottish aristocratic descendancy. By that record Can I claim to be the local candidate in any of those areas seats, seeing as many people believe we should ape the lib dems techniques
9 , S Penketh . “…. Rules will be old Naval rules ….”
Is that rubbing tummies aft until submission or chucking Spanish oranges on the poop deck ?
Comment by Vice Admiral Jack Tar MacW - 21/10/1805 @ 9.45 am
11 - “my kind offer at Waverley”
Is this some new euphemism for cottaging?
13 - Stuart, if you think about it, we could all claim descent for the constituency of Limpopo Valley South …
13 , s . penketh . “…. Scottish aristocratic descendancy ”
Excellent , another infusion of noble North British blood , I’m waiting for the King over the water to make an appearance !!
Sir Tabman
I demand a retraction it was Bury’s son Sir Peel who retracted the Corn Laws to relieve the Irish. Bury Demands satisfaction, as my gran rededicated the peel tower in the 1970’s I feel your glove slap accross our face more harsly than most
17 - Sir, I will not retract; Peel only relented because of pressure form the anti Corn Law League founded by Cobden. Without that corn would still be 70s a bushel today!
http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/PRanticorn.htm
10 No, we don’t “all” agree !
Relented Tabman, you make it sound easy for Peel?! A titanic struggle that split the Tory Party, and oh bliss for you led to Liberal Dominance for several decades, with no tory majority again for 28 years.
A driven man peel, still since his father always sat him on his knee and told him bob you black dog you will be PM if it kills me how could he be anyting else.
Relented Tabman, you make it sound easy for Peel?! A titanic struggle that split the Tory Party, and oh bliss for you led to Liberal Dominance for several decades, with no tory majority again for 28 years.
A driven man peel, still since his father always sat him on his knee and told him “Bob you black dog you will be Prime Minister if it kills me how could he be anything else”.
Relented Tabman, you make it sound easy for Peel?! A titanic struggle that split the Tory Party, and oh bliss for you led to Liberal Dominance for several decades, with no tory majority again for 28 years.
A driven man peel, still since his father always sat him on his knee and told him “Bob you black dog you will be Prime Minister if it kills me how could he be anything else”.
19. I think you may know i mean’t the three of us TB! your views are decidedly well known. you consider attila the hun to have been a hand wringing liberal.
The impertance of you sir.
Bury wil get satisfaction, next you will be claiming that it wasn’t the tories who abolished slavery like Benn was on question time on Salford, cosh I’ve never heckled before but his slander of the Royal Navy in it’s anti slavery war against Brazil was shocking. Admiral Jack W I hope you will forgive my behaviour in the defence of our honour.
Peel did indeed retract it but would have done it anyway for why would he want to split the tory party, unless it was a point of principle. Peel is the reason thetory party evolved into the party of free trade much like the old Liberals.
Interesting about the Corn Laws. Is there any other instance in the UK of popular action changing government policy? I can only think of the Poll Tax, but I’m sure there are others.
25. Slavery? William Wilberforce and the ant-slavery league?
25. Slavery? William Wilberforce and the anti-slavery league?
25 - its a very interesting point. Since Universal Suffrage, governments have not tended to be able to introduce policies that cause such universal suffering and outrage and apply them for 40 years. That makes the poll tax even more remarkable and, I suppose, shows the levels of hubris prevalent in the Tory party at the time.
1 - Are you exiled down south at the minute. The last thing Tories in the north want is a Blair soundalike with all his management speak. I’m not knocking on doors for yet another leader only to hear, ” Not voting for you because we don’t like him. ” Portillo last night on This Week - Cameron’s background is definitely a disadvantage to him.
If only there was a man of the people candidate, someone from humble origins, who made something of himself through hardwork. Someone who is experienced, who has been a Minister and shadowed one of the top offices of state. If only we could find such a candidate…
27 - Not sure. I’ve read a couple of studies that reckon slavery ended for economic reasons. With the Poll Tax, it’s clear that the scale of non-payment forced the policy change.
29 John T So you are proposing William Jefferson Hague for Tory leader then!
At least he got NuLab right:
There is nothing that the British people can talk about, that this Labour Government doesn’t deride.
Talk about Europe and they call you extreme. Talk about tax and they call you greedy. Talk about crime and they call you reactionary. Talk about asylum and they call you racist. Talk about your nation and they call you Little Englanders.
This Government thinks Britain would be alright if only we had a different people.
I think Britain would be alright, if only we had a different Government.
30. YOu could an people have argued the same re the corn laws that the growing economic and political muscle of the new factory owners angry at having to pay their workfirce artificially high wages due to the inflated artificially corn price were crucial to repeaaal, and were an economic factor. certainly the anti-slavery campaign mass meeting, pamphlets,petitions and lobbying of mps had as much in common with the aanti corn law league as anyones.
28 - Of course, there’s the suffragettes, who I know very little about. Is that another instance?
People aren’t going to vote for DD because he’s from a council estate. Its about policies and what the party stands for. For me neither candidate has set out what they really believe in so we get this sideshow about who went to school where.
My personal view is that the macho image DD has could cause further harm to the party amongst female voters and middle-class voters, without being offset by gains from traditional Labour voters.
32 - Agreed. Perhaps the Poll Tax protest is unique in that the direct action (specifically non-payment) had a direct and immediate economic effect and thus required an urgent solution.
29 - My I propose Josiah Hardwood, famed Northern industrialist? I attach some of his choicer epithets:
Josiah Hardwood : I’d no sooner place my daughter in the hands of a man who didn’t love her as I’d place my john thomas in the hands of a lunatic with a pair of scissors.
Blackadder : Sir. I come as emissary of his highness the Prince of Wales with the most splendid of news. He wants your lovely daughter for his wife.
Josiah Hardwood : [Disgusted] Well his wife can’t have her. It’s outrageous that you should come here with such a suggestion. [Rising angrily]
Josiah Hardwood : Mind sir or I shall take off my belt and by thunder, me trousers will fall down.
31 , blue2win . And sadly for the Tories the electorate got the measure of William Hague in 2001 !
34 - People might vote for DD because he has a normal background. You might think the average voter sits there with all the manifestos and compare policies but I don’t. Do you think we are stuck on 33% because we are getting policy wrong - Cameron had alot to do with formulating policy at the last election but you are backing him.
I think the areas we are getting wrong is more about image and tactics.
34. Too right! The more DD’s supporters bang on about his background the more i suspect they are not confident of arguing him on his personal merits. “All the worlds a stage” said Shakespeare, the Tory Party needs a more convincing actor than David Davis.
38. True Cameron had a big role in the manifesto, but much less in the actual campaign the ordering and prominence given to certain topics was quite different from the campaign, i really worry if DD assuming he wins just thinks it’s case of offering a massive tax cut and waiting for the tide to turn.
34 - The silliest idea about DD is that his military background will benefit him. Noone beyond the Tory hardcore gives a monkeys. IDS RAF history was similarly talked up. IDS though eh? Excellent gaffes.
- Mr Duncan Smith, would it be fair to say you’ve shot yourself in the foot once again?
- Let me say this: the only shooting I’ll be doing is shooting Tony Blair!
Classic IDS.
31 - If only Hague had stuck to his original deal with Howard and we had got them as leaders in the right order.
He got the job too soon - take note Cameron fans !
40 - IIRC IDS was in the Army (and served in NI). His father was a fighter pilot.
S Penketh (130 and (17) A Peel tower was a fortified house or dwelling place normally entered by ladder to the first floor with a vaulted ground floor for the cattle. … - nothing to do with Sir Robert.
As for locals “Can I claim to be the local candidate in any of those areas seats, seeing as many people believe we should ape the lib dems techniques”
After Cheadle I dont think the Conservatives will be playing the local card until they have improved their techniques.
37 I think they got the measure of a poorly organised party in total denial in 2001. Hague had the measure of Blair at almost all PMQs and since resigning as leader Hague’s stock (as well as his bank balance) has risen considerably. As Mrs T said “Everyone should have a Willy” and I wonder if WJH will morph into a mekon vesion of a Whitelaw. He already sounds a bit like the traditional kingmaker.
42 - Quite right, IDS was in the Scots Guards, his dad the RAF. Is that a gaffe of IDS proportions? I’ll be making inappropriate jokes about Charles Kennedy soon
If Guido is to believed 44 Hague has serious doubts, although it may relate to the fact that Davis’s penchant for being seen as trouyble did not originate in IDS’s times. Guido belives Hague is letting his willingness to serve under anyone bar Davis to be widely Known.
If Guido is to believed 44 Hague has serious doubts, although it may relate to the fact that Davis’s penchant for being seen as trouble did not originate in IDS’s times. Guido belives Hague is letting his willingness to serve under anyone bar Davis to be widely Known.
Re 29 I’m in Bury again and working in leigh. I have stated in previous posts that I believe Cameron is not like Blair he is not an apologist for toryism as Blair was for Social@@ism. He argues passionately for small governance and low tax and hopes and dreams. He just does it in calm measured tones. I believe Davies is to much to the right and for an army officer he has not been the most loyal troop.
Re 44 Icarus
you clearly do not know Bury Peel tower was a tower built in Ramsbotton in the 19th century as a means of work for local people. It was later dedicated to the memory of Sir Robert Peel.
Bury again demands satisfaction ICARUS. God that was a good belly shout just like my navy days
48 - I don’t think Howard is thinking that Cameron has been that loyal either now he has started rubishing the election campaign they devised together and policies such as scrapping tuition fees.
After Howard had gone to the trouble of changing the leadership election system for him as well !
Sorry last post Should be RE43 Icarus
I stand corrected, apologies for doubting you.
All this talk of Bury has made me think of food - the best black pudding I have recently eaten came from a butcher in Craven Arms, Shropshire and Petchs (of Pork Pie fame) in Great Ayton, Cleveland do an interesting one baked in a tray
I must admit I haven’t made up my mind between Cameron and Davis.
Cameron may go down better in places like Harrogate. Which do you think would go down better in places like Stockton or Keighley?
Re Sean
Stockton was represented by super Mac so I suppose there not adverse to gentlemen. Still believe he is a good candidate for towns such as worsley too.
For Black puddings Icarus I suggest a trip to Bury Market. Thats right, Bury, fun for the whole famiy, why not try Burrs country park and adventure centre for the more outdoorsie types. Or a trip down memory lane on the east lancs railway to Rawtenstall. Thats right Bury a town that has it all for a perfect family holiday.
I claim the Parachial prize i started with the comments on Norfolk North in the GE campaign
53- Cameron against Brown=hung parliament.
Cameron will go down better in the South, while Brown will go down better in the north.
But then the tories could always make some strange things (a campaign which scares half of the voters, accusing all candidates to rapists or proposing to introduce poll tax again) and losing in the South too.
Fifty. Nonsense Cameron played a key role in the manifesto, but he didn’t cook up the campaign in a closet alone with mh, saatchi now trying hard to claim otherwise and others played a role, anyway what’s Cameron supposed to say??? Everything was Perfect? They lost didn’t they? I think this is overplayed Cameron has certainly not used the sort of virtriolic lamguague of Alan Duncan which has genuinely angered people. The first part of winning again is to be reasonably critical of aspects that didn’t work so well. davis for instance is arguing alongside saatchi re taxes.
AS for changing the Leadership election for him? This is mad. the only thing howard was trying to avoid the nightmare scenario where davis or any other candidate say wins a clear or even overwhelming support of mps only to have the membership vote for someone else, in other words a replay of the ids situation.
52 , Icarus . Dickinson and Morris of Melton Mowbray make a most acceptable and award winning pork pie , now more widely available in supermarkets . I wonder if they buy in venison ?!?!
http://www.porkpie.co.uk
54 - Bury is far too cosmopolitan!
Icarus - next time you’re in Rhos drop into Nino’s cafe opposite the Breakwater
RE Sir Tabman
Did I wrong you in a previous life, why must you insist on insulting the Goood name of Bury
54 - The Roughton Memorial Parochial Trophy is at the engravers as we speak and will be on your mantlepiece by Monday.
57 - can I also suggest the following, very good for when one is forced to eat one’s (hat, that is): http://www.dadshats.com/beavbranpor1.html
59 - Bury also gave us Phil and Gary (not to mention Neville, and their sister who’s name escapes me but was a netball international) Neville. And its North Manchester, where you don’t venture if you know what’s good for you …
Usually work commitments prevent me from looking over the discussion during the day but I’m waiting to see the dentist - and what a lot of clap-trap there is here. The idea that posh people only go down well in the South is complete nonsense. Ex-public-school, posh talking Anthony Blair MA (Oxon) has had no problems in County Durham.
By the same argument David Davis will only go down well amongst single parent families in council estates. People look for more than that from their leader.
I have just started working in York and this part of North Yorkshire a lot more “posh” than large areas of the South. On almost every corner in our city centre there are hat hire shops and you see more “posh” people boarding trains at York station than just about anywhere I know.
62..So why no Tory Mp’s in York then Mike? Even in the good times?
62.” Ex-public-school, posh talking Anthony Blair MA (Oxon) has had no problems in County Durham. ”
I don’t find Blair “posh”. He’s the right mix between being posh and being “the real everyday man”.
64 - Andrea, TB has managed to scuff the polish from his RP; in contrary fashion Messrs Heath, Clarke, Howard (and Ms Thatcher) burnished their regional tones.
62 - Mike. Tony Blair broadened the appeal of Labour by coming from a non-Labour background which helped in middle england. Cameron is what you expect from a Tory so as Portillo says it is a negative. Not really clap-trap - it must be your toothache making you grouchy !
But tabman.
Bury upto 97 returned two tories. Even Radcliffe a dead town killed of by the local council 15 years ago still has a strong vote indeed I have high hopes of having the previlage of winning Radcliffe North. Indeed till 8 years ago Radcliffe North elected nothing else then plummy tories. the last tory won 6 years ago and went oit in 4 years ago she is no councillor for Elton Ward
62 - Mike, what I find remarkable is the way that the ‘grim up north’ stereotype so beutifully, and at great length, satirised by Tabman (does he do any work!) still seems to be so prevalent.
But places like Leeds, Shipley, Selby, Calder Valley, Elmet, Crosby the Wirral and Tynemouth are all fairly prosperous and are unlikely to be hostile to someone who comes across as a bit posh.
56 - If Cameron is elected we get th IDS situation in reverse.
As the conservativehome.com survey shows only 36% of the members polled are considering supporting Cameron, Davis is on 64%.
There would have been no chance at all for Cameron if Howard hadn’t changed the system.
63 - York had a Tory MP until 1992, and the rest of North Yorkshire is still stuffed with them, eg Vale of York, Ryedale, Skipton & Ripon, Richmond, etc.
Counciul by-elections 21/7/07
Cambridge City - Coleridge: Lab 829, Lib Dem 638, C 263, UKIP 42. (June 2004 - Three seats Lab 782, 753, 743, C 512, 511, Lib Dem 490, 477, C 469, Lib Dem 372, Green 340, UKIP 187). Lab hold. Swing 1.6% Lab to Lib Dem.
Carrick District - Trescobeas: Lib Dem 351, Lab 282, C 110. (May 2003 - Two seats Lib Dem 406, 405, Lab 304, 276). Lib Dem hold. Swing 3.7% Lib Dem to Lab.
Castle Morpeth Borough - Pegswood: Lib Dem 417, Lab 242, Green 14. (May 2003 - Two seats Lab 427, 280, C 103, 92). Lib Dem gain from Lab.
Castle Morpeth Borough - Ponteland East: C 468, Lib Dem 312, Green 18. (May 2003 - Two seats Lib Dem 491, C 438, Lib Dem 433, C 373). C gain from Lib Dem. Swing 12.8% Lib Dem to C.
Cotswold District - Kempsford-Lechlade: C 683, Lib Dem 403. (May 2003 - Two seats Ind 600, 537, C 522, 498, Lib Dem 210). C gain from Ind. Swing 1.2% Lib Dem to C.
Oxford City - Northfield Brook: Lab 592, Independent Working Class Association 300, Lib Dem 141, C 31, Green 19. (June 2004 - IWCA 555, Lab 439, C 90, Lib Dem 89, Green 61). Lab hold. Swing 6.6% Lib Dem to Lab.
Walsall Borough - Willenhall South: Lab 862, C 486, Lib Dem 399, BNP 151. (June 2004 - Three seats Lab 1133, 1022, 971, Lib Dem 737, C 727, Lib Dem 702, 680, C 677, 611). Lab hold. Swing 2.3% C to Lab.
Westminster London Borough - Harrow Road: Lab 774, C 306, Lib Dem 150. (May 2002 - Three seats Lab 1029, 952, 942, C 362, 328, Green 289, C 287, Lib Dem 278). Lab hold. Swing 1.6% C to Lab.
Max - In any of the seats you mentioned do you think the local tories would select a posh sounding southerner to be their PPC. If not why not ?
The Pub is going fishing off Rhos tomorrow - unable to join them but I will be passing on the way to Snowdon for annual run up and down - may call in to Rhos.
Last year did the Llanberis to top and back in 1 hour 38mins hoping to better it this year.
73. Strange results in Castle Morpeth!
Last comment was for Tabman, and somehow I forgot to mention that it is my daughter who does the running - I just watch!
70 - I can’t claim credit for that; it goes to the wonderfully creative James. I am working on some very dry figures and keep seeking light relief!
I didn’t think there were any Conservatives in Castle Morpeth.
75 - the weather was fantastic last Sunday. Does your daughter do the distance stuff (eg half marathons)?
Police shoot dead suspected Suicide Bomber at Stockton Station.
82 - I think that should be Stockwell tube station.
70 - to link in with discussion on the previous thread, one of the unintended (and in my mind wholly beneficial) consequences of a concerted terrorist campaign in London (which I sincerely hope does NOT happen) is that it might add impetus to the first stirings of regionalisation that we are beginning to see.
This phenomenon is overtly visible in the returning confidence of cities like Manchester, Leeds and Glasgow, but is also taking place at a grassroots level as exemplified by some of our contributors here who have “downsized” to other parts of the country.
73 - Northfield Brook by-election (Oxford)
Not too sure how the swing of 6.6% Lib Dem to Lab was calculated. It was in fact 18% IWCA to Lab. (FWIW, the Lib Dem vote share doubled.)
77 , Icarus . My dear fellow , I have to say I was a touch worried at the prospect of your good self gasping for air on the run , there are some on the site salivating at the prospect of a by-election !!!
Comment by Jack Bannister-Kip Kano MacW in a time of 3 minutes 59 Seconds …….
78 - Thank you. It was in fact created for Tabman’s proposed run next time. He has disguised the constituency name in order to retain the element of surprise (and he has tailored it to be from a Tory candidate).
I’d also note that it was not meant as a comment on northern constituencies, but on the type of leaflet you would see from candidates in those wonderful days before David Penhaligon ruined politics for us ruling classes by insisting MPs visit their constituency more than twice a decade. Any constituency name (except perhaps Cities of London & Westminster) could be substituted.
I would certainly agree that the area north of Watford has at least its fair share of posh. Or so I am informed by people who have ventured up there.
70 - Somewhere like Cheadle is prosperous, but the local Conservative association would be very unlikely to select a plummy southerner as a candidate - he’d just get laughed at by the electorate. Just because we’re doing well for ourselves doesn’t mean we don’t have chips on our shoulder. That’s not to say anyone posh doesn’t stand a chance - a northern knight of the shires (eg Sir Marcus Fox - posh Yorkshire) can do well - but I can’t imagine a David Cameron winning anywhere in the pleasant suburbs of the north. Perhaps in the rural seats…
The difference with Tony Blair is that the Durham coalfield will vote Labour whatever - ‘donkeys with red rosettes,’ as they used to say. They may not like the candidate personally, but they’ll still turn out and vote for him.
Two years ago I got the train up and walked down last year just walked until the road gave out - a very steep bit to start - how some of them run all the way up I do not know. Tabman - she does lots in Wales - front page of Cambrian News with a cup a few weeks ago and was in the winning womens relay team in the Man v Horse race.
At the election texted me “At last one of us lives in a Liberal Constituency” - Ceredigion
86 - no problem, James. Strictly speaking (and I’m sure we’ve discussed this previously) its “North of Watford Gap“, which is, of course, in Northamptonshire and on the imaginary Severn Estuary/Wash line that divides “Oop North” from the South.
You are also right about the posh people - the Duke of Westminster lives in Cheshire, and the Duke of Devonshire lives in Derbyshire. Then, of course, there is our own dear former MP for Rutland SW …
87 - I suppose this means I must be defining Tatton as rural, as George Osborne is there. Hmm. It is, a bit. It’s not in a metropolitan county, anyway.
I’m interested that no-one here is talking about Willetts. I don’t know anything about him myself, but both the Telegraph and the Economist have, in the last couple of weeks, reported him as being one of the main three contenders (alongside Davis and Cameron). My expectation is that he will prove too cerebral a character and hence be unelectable in the face of an increasingly dumbed-down voting public, but any other views?
Cameron doesn’t come across as posh to me, and less than Blair does. My own inoculation against the sinister Labour disease came from brush with the scion of the noble Paget clan who was Northampton’s MP for far too long. He had a plum down his throat and thought 10 year olds in back streets were all deaf as he sneered at us.
Posh Labour MP’s are a big negative always but posh conservative ones are, while not expected, at least not unusual. The secret is not to sound and behave posh, never be condescending and not, if you are a Tory, to pretend to be from the Estuary and stop your glottals. Its alright for Blair to do it but not a Tory.
By the way did you notice how many politicians of all persuasions had a high class drawl in the broadcast of the 1970 election. Mr Janner amongst them. Sound like that these days and any politician is doomed.
76, not so strange, Andrea.
Castle Morpeth is a divided borough, bot socially and in parliamentary constituencies. Pegswood is in the seat of Wansbeck, and a working class ex-mining area, so a Lib Dem swing from Lab with C not contesting is no surprise with general trends in 2005. Ponteland is very up-market (for the region, dominated by private housing with many Newcastle commuters (and, it is rumoured, preferred residence of many of the Geordie city’s criminal fraternity - not true, I’m sure!)- so Labour don’t figure, but good progress for the Conservatives. It is in the Tory Hexham constituency.
88 , Icarus . ” was in the winning womens relay team in the Man v Horse race ”
I’m tempting fate here but ?!?!?!?!?!
91 - I think the main problem with Willets - apart from, as you say, the rather cerebral impression he gives - is that no-one expects the Tories to pick Willets, and the electorate (or at least those who appoint themselves the voice of the electorate) seem to get rather miffed if the parties do something so far from what they were expecting. “Typical Tories,” they’ll say, “always voting on the basis of who someone isn’t.” That this might not be true doesn’t stop it being damaging.
But I too am a little surprised at the lack of attention Willets has received.
87 I always thought Sir Marcus Fox (C, Shipley 1970-97) was worth thousands of votes to the Tories in Yorkshire. He was hardly posh, but his ‘You know it makes sense’ attitude to political questions, regional accent (Dewsbury for the cognoscenti of West Riding accents)-and a perennial smile - presented an acceptable face for the Tories in West Yorkshire. But even that couldn’t save him in 1997…
87 - it used to be (and in some areas still is ) not unknown for the phenomenon to apply to the blue rosette also.
88 - a heritage constituency
91 - there was discussion of Willetts some months back and IIRC he was dismissed as not telegenic enough, and too bright.
92 - in the documenatry on Heath on Tuesday, one of his contemporaries described him as sounding cockney
Heath responded in his most polished RP that “One doesn’t rarely know how one sounds.”
Generally speaking, accents are much less clipped than they were - listen to the Queen from 50 years ago, and you get far less “thet” for “that” than you would have. Although vowel transposition seems to have been a function of all sorts of accents, eg the Londoners you hear in newsreel footage who might say something like “Thet’s a virry good idea!”
Icarus re Clarke’s odds please see my Post 10.
Icarus re Clarke’s odds please see my Post at 10.
87 - And since we’re talking about the 1970 election, IIRC (probably not!), Fox was the other half (with Chris Chataway)of the Tories’ rather effective ‘News At Ten’ style party election broadcasts during the campaign.
93. Thanks for the descriptions of those wards.
“Pegswood is in the seat of Wansbeck, and a working class ex-mining area, so a Lib Dem swing from Lab with C not contesting is no surprise with general trends in 2005″
I missed that the tories weren’t contesting the seat.
“Ponteland is very up-market (for the region, dominated by private housing with many Newcastle commuters (and, it is rumoured, preferred residence of many of the Geordie city’s criminal fraternity - not true, I’m sure!)- so Labour don’t figure, but good progress for the Conservatives”
yes, it’s an area where the conservatives could do well, but there’re many potenital conservatives areas where at the end they don’t perform well.
All these talks about being posh, but what’s the definition of “posh” everyone is using?
94 - Man versus horse race: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/wales/mid_/3801177.stm
This is a small town in mid Wales with a penchant for unusual races - this is also the home of bog snorkelling and mountain bike bog snorkelling:
http://llanwrtyd-wells.powys.org.uk/index1.htm
101 - “posh” is a slang term for upper, or upper-middle, class. Apocryphally it comes from an anagram (Port Out, Starboard Home) stamped on the tickets of wealthy travellers to India; in each case that is the shaded side of the ship on the journey from the UK to the continent.
96 - I always considered Marcus Fox posh on the grounds that you have to be fairly posh to be called ‘Marcus’. But, as you say, unmistakably Yorkshire - the two are not mutually exclusive.
103 “from the UK to the sub-continent (and back).”
Andrea - have you ever been to Courmayeur? I think that’s probably the closest Italian equivalent to ‘posh’. Though attempting to explain the British class system to foreign ears is not an easy thing to do.
103. but what does make a man posh?
I wouldn’t say that Blair is posh. If I have to think about a posh man, I would think about Mandelson, bot Blair.
It’s nice to have your knowledge confirmed:
Word History: “Oh yes, Mater, we had a posh time of it down there.” So in Punch for September 25, 1918, do we find the first recorded instance posh, meaning “smart and fashionable.” A popular theory holds that it is derived from the initials of “Port Out, Starboard Home,” the cooler, and thus more expensive, side of ships traveling between England and India in the mid-19th century. The acronym POSH was supposedly stamped on the tickets of first-class passengers traveling on that side of ships owned by the Peninsular and Oriental Steam Navigation Company. No known evidence supports this theory, however. Another word posh was 19th- and early 20th-century British slang for “money,” specifically “a halfpenny, cash of small value.” This word is borrowed from the Romany word påh, “half,” which was used in combinations such as påhera, “halfpenny.” Posh, also meaning “a dandy,” is recorded in two dictionaries of slang, published in 1890 and 1902, although this particular posh may be still another word. This word or these words are, however, much more likely to be the source of posh than “Port Out, Starboard Home,” although the latter source certainly has caught the public’s etymological fancy.
From: http://www.yourdictionary.com/ahd/p/p0463600.html
107 - But Blair is posh because he went to public school, and there’s no way out of poshness after that. (Maybe I exaggerate slightly). He tries to hide it, but he is.
101 posh: smart, elegant and fashionable as the upper classes (or acting like it)
(Deriv: disputed, let’s not go down that route -it’s boring if you’ve heard the usual one so many times)
106. ok, so I was thinking about the right meaning of the word. Probably the other place for posh people in Italy in Costa Smeralda in Sardinia.
108: my post was too late, I fear
106 - I have and I don´t think Courmayeur is all that posh.
107 - posh people have been privately educated (and thus speak english with an accent slightly foreign to most people). They send their children to private schools and they choose old-fashioned names for them. Blair is a bit posh. On the television (popular shows) he puts on a kind of estuary English - unconvincing and patronising - but probably worth votes. It is because he sounds a bit posh that the Heath anecdote (you don´t look or sound Labour) is funny.
107 - Andrea, that is one of the most difficult and intricate questions you can ask of British/English society.
Someone can be wealthy, privately-educated, a graduate of Oxbridge, wear handmade suits and shoes, drive a Bentley (never a Rolls), live in a stately home etc etc, and still not be posh. Its beyond definition, though let me direct you to the works of Nancy Mitford, specifically Noblesse Oblige for an insight into the whole thing.
It can be summed up by the example of Alan Clark (posh) describing Micahel Heseltine (not posh) as “the sort of man who has to buy his own furniture.”
113 - posh people have been privately educated (and thus speak english with an accent slightly foreign to most people). They send their children to private schools and they choose old-fashioned names for them.
Necessary but not sufficient. Sometimes not even necessary - listen to Princess Anne.
109. There is nothing that irritates me more about Blair (apart from waging illegal wars that is) is when he tries to sound “common” knocking the G sound of the end in “ing” words.
He went to the poshest Edinburgh School, the richest college in Oxford and then into the bar.
113. Peter, Courmayeur has the reputation to be expensive (like Cortina)and so a place for “rich people to spend the new year evening”.
116.”There is nothing that irritates me more about Blair (apart from waging illegal wars that is) is when he tries to sound “common” knocking the G sound of the end in “ing” words”
Thething that irritates me the mist about Blair is the smile. That’s why I liked him during his speech after the London’s bombs: he didn’t have to smile.
117 - I didn´t know that - it seemed quite cheap to me! Something can be expensive and not posh, and posh but not expensive. Taormina strikes me as posher - but you get a lot of celebrities there, and celebrities aren´t normally posh.
119 - I thought it seemed like an Italian equivalent of, say, Harrogate. But with mountains and ski slopes. Full of expensive clothes shops and expensively clothed people. Also, while other Italian places I have been have been fun, this seemed a little stuffy - we weren’t unwelcome, but I did feel as if they thought we were a little vulgar.
119 It could mean 2 things: a) you’re very rich and so you find it cheap
b) its reputation isn’t very accurate (or probably it’s based about the past)
Do you know lots of Italian place, did you live there (here)?
34 - People might vote for DD because he has a normal background. You might think the average voter sits there with all the manifestos and compare policies but I don’t. Do you think we are stuck on 33% because we are getting policy wrong - Cameron had alot to do with formulating policy at the last election but you are backing him.
I think the areas we are getting wrong is more about image and tactics.
Did people vote for Michael Howard because of his background? Or IDS? or Hague? or Major? or Thatcher?
Baxkground is unimportant. I agree it is image and tactics that really need changing.
DD is already seen and portrayed as “extreme” and “rightwing” (not good at the BBC). DC is seen as moderate, young, charming etc. I suspect that DD is not as rightwing nor DC as centrist as the media portrays them, but how the media presents you is vitally important. DC has a clear run, DD will be fighting his hardman image all the way.
They send their children to private schools and they choose old-fashioned names for them.
Like David.
121 - Tabman - I used to live in Rome. I was in Courmayeur more recently - when the tunnel was closed. I think many places in Italy will seem quite posh to an English person, as behaviour (and especially drinking) is generally more restrained.
Tabman - I agree that it is not enough to have gone to a private school. But it is hard to be posh without it (although I suppose a governess might do the trick).
124 - Sorry first Tabman should be Andrea of course (I imagine they are different people!)
125. I think I’m not Tabman too….but I’m not very sure
When were you in Rome? Was the DC still alive (and all other parties)?
110: posh - there’s the old money/new money thing, though. Traditional posh is definitely not smart and fashionable - a traditional gentleman wears an old tweed jacket. They would recoil in horror from someone in a Ferrari with fifteen suits and a diamond tiepin. Politics aside, old posh people are generally nice and not at all inclined to sneer at anyone.
Mildly good by-elections for Labour, bar the Morpeth curiosities.
114. It wasn’t Alan Clark it was supposedly Michael Jopling though he denies it
They were in their death throes. I was there from 1991 to 1994, so di Pietro and Mani Pulite were busy. To name drop mildly, I used to meet (one of?) Andeotti’s daughters occasionally for professional reasons - she became much more open and friendly as the investigations continued.
I used to live in Aventino - a posh area, as you probably know. But I didn´t live in the poshest part!
I can think of a couple of other popular Tory toffs from north of the border. Sir Hector Monro who stood down in Dumfries in 1997 (which perhaps explains the massive swing to Labour) and Alick Buchanan-Smith who would probably have held West Aberdeenshire even in 1997 had he still been alive. His cousin, and fellow toff is the LD MP for the same seat, Sir Robert Smith. So being posh isn’t neccesarily a bar to sucess, although these were exceptional individuals.
129. I was too young to remember clearly those days, but at the time every day a new MP was arrested or investigated. Some of the politicians of the time are still in the political scene now.
Didn’t Ann Widdecombe study in Oxford too? Don’t tell him she’s posh.
131 - Cossiga, Bossi, Fini come to mind. But almost all the PSI politicans seem to have gone: the exception being Amato.
131 - she did, god bless her, although at Lady Margaret Hall which is certainly the best Oxford college but does not have a reputation as a “posh” college and is indeed one of the newer and poorer colleges (my fiver-a-month standing order is hardly likely to change that either…)
St Johns, which Mr Smithson referred to at 116, could not be more different as a college.
Interest, sorry to be so long replying - but have to go to the pub on Fridays. The answer re Clarke’s odds on Betfair is that there is almost no market - last deal done was at 11/1 but now can get 13.5/1 and noone has taken my 19/1 offer.
132. We have Craxis’son. De Michelis and Boniver are back and Martelli is doing some TV shows. The ones more heavly corrupted weren’t obviously able to come back. Many DC politicians are still there (De Mita, Mancino, Jervolino -with her voice-) and some old communists too (Cossutta).
Di Pietro is in politics too now.
102 , John C . Of course there’s posh :
http://www.michael-live.com/models/beckham.htm
and posh :
http://www.lochiel.net/chiefs/xxvi.html
De Michelis is back
che vergogna! Di Pietro is in the European Parliament these days, isn´t he?
133.”St Johns, which Mr Smithson referred to at 116, could not be more different as a college”
Who are the other MPs who went to St Johns?
I know that Andrew Smith and Angela Eagle went there-
137. “De Michelis is back che vergogna!”
He was elected in the EU Parliament last year (his party- the New PSI- is in the government coalition). Another one who was elected in the EU Parliament last year is Cirino Pomicino (don’t know if you remember him. He was a DC former Cabinet Minister)
136 and the Posh: http://www.theposh.com
Your second example looks more chav than posh to me - look at that bling on his hat and the immitation burberry skirt and wrap. I bet that tweed was made by von Dutch.
127 - there’s shabby posh, too. My father had a Liberal councillor colleague who was a retired Naval Commander. My recollection of their house, which was a C17th Manor, was that the furniture was battered and smelt strongly of labrador. I’m not sure I wver saw him in anything other than a threadbare Arran sweater (which also smelt of dog).
138 - St John’s College Cambridge contains a suite known as the Triple Set, which I was told were the rooms of the University’s MP.
138 - St John’s is far to classy for its alumni to dirty their hands with politics. I am not sure they are particularly proud of Blair.
139 - I´ll have to start looking at the italian press again. I have just found that La Malfa is still active. Italy seems to be something of a gerontocracy!
Who will eventually replace Berlusconi in your view? Pier Silvio?
Continuing my Cassandra role, there are strong rumours - but I emphasise just rumours - of incidents at Harrow Road, Canary Wharf and on the Waterloo-Southampton line. These seem to be suspect packages etc, perhaps cornered bombers. Indeed as I write the BBC has reported that a stretch of Harrow Road has just been sealed off. I mention this only for pb-ers who might be heading into or out of or across London. Not to sow sturm und drang.
143. He’s Cabinet Minister for European Affairs.
144 - Thank you Sean.
140 , Tabman . Lochiel - ” more chav than posh …”
Gasp …. splutter …. such impudence and tyranny from West Brigdford will not be tolerated !!!!!
http://www.joebrower.com/PHILE_PILE/PIX/TRT/TRT-Braveheart.jpg
Gyles Brandreth (ex mp for Chester) went to New College - but we try noy to talk about it
147 - Richard Briers isn’t posh! http://www.bbc.co.uk/scotland/tv/monarch/family_archives/clip_display/index.shtml?character=hector&series=series1&clip_name=ep5_reflexology
How’s about some proper posh behaviour? http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/SSwestminsterD.htm
148- Michael Meacher went to New College too. Yvette Cooper and Stephen Twigg went to Balliol, Maria Eagle went to Pembroke, Barbara Roche went to Lady Margaret Hall, Mandelson went to St. Catherine’s, Jim Cousins went to New and Ruth Kelly went to Queen’s.
138. How could I have forgot him, but Alan Duncan went to St John’s too.
“Gyles Brandreth (ex mp for Chester) went to New College”
to collect the empty milk bottles?
150 - Andrea, do you have a link to dark (and light) blue MPs?
Alan Wee Dunky Duncan is also a St John’s man. We ‘knew’ each other slightly at University, and I had the pleasure of lobbying him “at home” on some north sea tax matter back in the early 1990s. He’s fun!
150 - Widders, Roche, Matthew Taylor, Michael Gove and Benazir Bhutto were all LMHers. And Antonia Fraser. And Nigella Lawson.
Note to self - cancel standing order first thing on Monday.
153. I don’t know the full list. There’re apparently 45 Labour MPs who are Oxford alumni. I’ve found a partial list (the MPs mentioned @150).
154. why everytime Alan Duncan is mentioned, a new nickname comes up?
So far I read refferring to him as: 1) Dinky Dunky 2) Hunky Dunky 3)Wee Dunky 4)Anal Dunking (from “The Mirror”)
There are reports of shots at Harrow Road. Nothing but rumours at the mo, and may just be over-active imaginations. But there is definitely a fairly serious incident, so best avoid that whole area of North West London - i.e. Kilburn - if you are travelling….
Ian Pearson (Trade Minister) and Damian Green also hail from Balliol
154.” I had the pleasure of lobbying him “at home” ”
What type of activities are required to “lobby” Alan Duncan “at home”? I hope a tea room is not involved….
154 - I couldn’t possibly comment…
There is posh and snobby and the two are not the same. The Paget I mentioned was both and therefore beyond the pale.
The snobs like to do other less fortunate people down and want to flaunt their perceived superiority. Posh people are those with exclusive families and backgrounds with loads of dosh and they tend to speak funny too.
Tony Benn is snobby in an inverted way but not posh, where his son Hilary is posh but not obviously snobby. John Prescott is snobby but chav. Tony Blair is posh but disreputable (a tradition amongst the most established posh families where most of the best pirates, rebels and burners of Spanish fleets come from). The Queen and the Prince of Wales are posh but not snobs nor, I think, is DC.
What is DD?
Re: 144 & 157 - there are no indications of any problems on the trains including the Waterloo-Southampton line. My partner has also told me nothing is happening at Canary Wharf either.
It does look as though they’ve found someone or something at Harrow Road. This continues to be very confusing.
161 - An inverted chav?
http://www.clare.cam.ac.uk/alumni/members/photos/1969.jpg
3rd row from the bottom, 7 in from the right as a young Times journalist …
149 , Tabman . Then there is posh royal in extremis :
http://www.jacobite.ca/kings/charles3.htm
I’m sorry but the site only provides the Jacobite succession to the throne down to about 110 , being Princess Marie-Gabrielle of Arenberg. Now where am I on the list ……. ah yes 2,457 oh well !!
162. Yes i think the Waterloo thing was a rumour, as I believe I said it might be. There was one station shut in Docklands - mere precaution I think - it has reopened. But Harrow Road appears to be definite and pretty serious… ambulances there etc.. shots now reported on BBC 24. But NO confirmation from Met Police of shootings.
164 - Being obtuse, but er, who?
167 - if you click on the photo, a magnifier button appears. See if you can identify said person then. If not, you could say that he’s not Gloss Marseille …
168- Actually I’m still trying to understand if he is man or a woman dressed like a man…..
162. Turns out there was an incident at Canary Wharf, it seems. Here’s a link
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/pictures/LON600D.htm
Not sure if that will work! Basically it says a man was wrestled to the ground by police… but no shots, and maybe just a precuation. All safe now.
I am aware this discussion is very much OT! Just thought I’d clear that up.
150 - there are currently 108 Oxonian MPs. 6 lost their seats in May, but 23 new ones were elected.
(I would paste the list in but it’s 13pp long, which might just kill the server.)
171 - Stephen, how many Cantabrigian equivalents are there?
171 - How many Cantabrian MP’s? Clearly the superior place so I suspect notably fewer…
Re: 170 - I’ve just spoken to my partner again having viewed the link. She is unaware of anything going on but reminded me that Canary Wharf is a big place !!
172 - I don’t think there are any Cantabrigian *equivalents*, are there?
Realising someone is bound to prove this wrong (and it is only my impression not a statement of fact) but why does it seem that Oxford produces more politicians than Cambridge? I know Ken Clarke and Michael Howard are both Tabs, but can more easily name politicians from Oxford. My college (Oriel) hasn’t done overly well in the production of politicians but we did have Cecil Rhodes.
175 - correct; I should have said superiors
Is there a similar list of Cantabrigian MPs?
176 - and a fine tradition on the river. Although you did rusticate a friend of mine for taking his rowing too seriously, but not before he’d won his Blue.
176. Partly because Oxford offers a PPE course, Cambridge doesn’t. As well as the fact that Cambridge is *traditionally* more ’sciencey’ and Oxford more ‘arty’. Politicians generally aren;t the sort of people who studied Maths or Engineering at Uni. (although I’m sure that someone’ll prove me wrong)
178 - rustication for taking rowing too seriously? Good grief. Mind you, those of us who weren’t addicted to being on the river at 5am in November and who could actually hold our drink tended not to take the boaties at all seriously for most of the year. We were usually cheering them on during Torpids and Eights though.
179 - the Cambridge equivalent used to be Pt I Econ. then Pt II SPS, but that’s now been made a full Tripos. (Note Social and Political Sciences - says a lot). Our own Nick Palmer MP is a Maths PhD.
180 - hard to believe, I know, but I some minimal attendance to academic matters is required.
Re 142: Blair went to St. John’s OXFORD!!! That’s St. John the baptist, not St John the evangelist at Cambridge. Which could be considered ironic…
Been lurking here for a while - love the site. May even post more now i’ve lost my virgnity!
176. There is an old joke that says it all. What’s the difference between an extrovert Cambridge man and an introvert one? The answer is that the extrovert looks at your shoes when he’s talking to you.
176 - Oriel has 3 MPs: (Alan Haselhurst, Paul Murphy, Andrew Robathan).
177 - Sorry, I only have the Oxford one (for professional, not political, reasons).
182 - he knows that, but I didn’t know of the differnet eclesiastical links. It would have been, as you say.
183 - I’ve heard the same joke in reference to accountants.
181. Fair point about the SPS - forgot that one. (Partly because the only people I knew who did it whilst I was there were mincing thesps who wanted an easy degree, and hated all forms of politics.)
186 - “mincing thesps”
Of my two contemporaries (and friends, both COLS members) who did it, one is a Professor of Politics and the other a jounro on the Torygraph
182 , Jon C . We’re all agog to know who on the site you lost your “virginity” to ?? …….You didn’t stand me up for Max at Waverley station did you ?!!?! LOL
In any case a hearty welcome !!
How many MPs have never attented university?
Jeremy Corbyn didn’t go to university, I suppose there’re other old Labour MP who didn’t attend university.
PM James Callaghan didn’t go to Uni.
BTW Sky TV have released pitures of all four of yesterday’s bombers. If you see these people… tell the Plod!
http://www.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30000-1189920,00.html
189 traditionally many of the Tories wouldn’t have gone, eg Knights of the Shires. Even Prezza went to Oxford!
184 - We produced a Labour MP?! How on earth did that happen?
191 - He went to Ruskin. I don’t think it’s part of the University, it describes itself as an independent college.
didn’t work - try this..
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4706421.stm
Oh, by way of introduction I’ve been lurking for a while and only started posting this afternoon. (Very quiet in the office and the crickets going against us). Just thought tho - has the pseudonym ‘Lennon’ already been taken or are people happy for me to use it?
188 - Jack - I promise there’s no one else!! I’m just not ready for that kind of comitment! Bromley will have to wait for another day.
Having gone to Edinburgh University I feel unable to comment further on this thread. Though to be fair Brown, Cook and Rifkind did not too bad for themselves.
195 - I can’t recall anyone else using that name. What Vintage and Flavour of Tab are you?
195 - I’m happy with Lennon so long has its not a reference to the ex-Leicster, current Celtic thug Neil! Or Danny Lennon who played a handful of games for the Wee Team in the 80’s.
196. Have you seen on the BBC Website the sheer hell Brown put the University Administrators/Administration through when he got himself elected Rector, the fierce buraecratic turf wars over whether Brown could have an extra filing cabinet etc? You Jocks!
196. Have you seen on the BBC Website the sheer hell Brown put the University Administrators/Administration through when he got himself elected Rector, the fierce beuractic turf wars over whether Brown could have an extra filing cabinet etc? You Jocks!
197. Flavour Queens’ / Maths . Vintage 99-02 (so a young ‘un)
198. Referance simply that real name is ‘Mark Chapman’ and feel I should make amends in some way!
201 - yes your surname is a bit of a tautology
Glenda Jackson went to RADA (Royal Academy of Dramatic Art). Is it considered a university?
190 - nor did Churchill did he? I think he just went straight to Sandhurst from Harrow. I imagine several early PMs also didn’t attend university on a “too posh to bother” basis. Callaghan was the first of the “self made man” variety, to be followed in that way by Major.
182 – Jon C – welcome to the board – your appearance, however, confirms a suspicion I’ve had since I turned up shortly before Staffordshire South – that the presence of so many Jons and Johns on the board is confusing. Henceforth, therefore, I will call myself by my other bulletin board name and post as Cookie.
Yeah - There was a piece about him in the Herald talking about all the internal rules he used to pour over. Sounded like a real fun loving guy. It was a very apathetic place when I was there (a couple of years ago) and I didn’t get interested or involved in politics untill after I left. Too many other distractions and activities , allthough nothing that would upset the good people of Bromley I’m afraid Jack!
203 - RADA dishes out bachelors’ degrees, rather surprisingly, although I doubt many people would consider it as a university as such (it is clearly much more competitive to get into than universities but the competition is not in terms of academic achievement).
189. IDS, of course did not go to university… though M. Crick of Newsnight made an issue of his website claim of having been to the University of Perugia - he in fact went to the the Universita Stranieri de Perugia (for a language course). Apologies to Andrea if Italian spellings are wrong.
196 - But Edinburgh dishes out MAs doesnt it? So it would count as a proper university - Having said that I have never bothered to get my MA
203. The Gurdian’s bio of Glenda lists RADA as an university. I was unsure if it could have been considered an university, that’s why I asked.
208. If he really went to the “Università per gli stranieri of Perugia”, he probably went there:
http://www.unistrapg.it/eng/
210 - the Guardian would.
208. When did Duncan Smith go to the “Università per Stranieri di Perugia?
I’ve just looked and it’s considered as an university only since 1992. Before 1992 it was considered a special “secondary superior school”.
209 - Icarus all Scottish Universities ‘dish out’ MAs - except you have to do an extra year which is why most Scots do four years at Uni.
Dan MA(Hons) Aberdeen
Sorry to go off topic again - but as a journalist i’m wondering if any of the connected people here have knowledge of or opinions on a possible news blackout re the incidents today. For instance, there are now several eye witness reports of a smoking package at Vauxhall, this morning, but no news reports as such. Also Euston has been evacuated - no reports. The Canary Wharf incident - only reported briefly on one site. Walthamstow shut, Watford shut, no reports. Very sketchy reports of shooting at Harrow Road. Still not confirmed. Voluntary news blackout, to help police? Presumably. But (if it exists) is it ethical… hm…
214 - I think you just have to be patient for the facts to come out . In situations like this false alarms and rumours are rife , many of them with little foundation and some where people have got the wrong end of the wrong stick .
214. In the same way that deaths in Iraq are no longer reported regularly (far too frequent to be news-worthy) it could be that suspicious packages are no longer news-worthy until they are confirmed by police to have been important.
215, 216… Well yes, sure. But I’m a Fleet Street journo of 20 years experience. And any journalist worth his salt (probably not me!) will be on these stories and reporting back - and we know (from blogs, etc) that these things are going on. Yet they are not reaching mainstream media. I suspect a voluntary blackout to prevent panic, or wild rumour-mongering, and that could be justified. The alleged Vauxhall bomb though, mystifies me. It happened ten hours ago, but no one has followed it up - yet witnesses are still coming forward. Very strange.
212 - Andrea, there is a precedent: someone who shall remain nameless (but who hasn’t been seen for a few days) indicated that he’d attended a University when at the time he was there it was a College of Higher Education. It subsequently became a Poly then a Univ.
Mr Smithson,
Re Ken There seem to be more voices in the last few days prepared tolerate albeit through gritted teeth the prospect of a KC Leadership. Has this altered your views at all particularly instructive the Post at 104 on the Clarke Thread.
I agree the clear frontrunners are the two Davids, but should both rather than just one frontrunner stumble Surely Ken must be marked down as third albeit at this Stage Distant Favourite?
217 - I was in Cardiff years and years ago when the city centre was evacuated due to a bomb scare, yet it did not even make the local news. The trouble with reporting it is that it just encourages any halfwit with an empty suitcase and time on their hands to do it and watch the media reaction. I am rather glad that there appears to be a voluntary blackout on such things. It may also be that it is a short run thing as police feel it would harm their investigation.
219. Whilst I agree with your sentiment, do you not think that in the unlikely instance of both Davids falling the good doctor (Fox) would step up as a ‘Lets not split the party by choosing Ken’ candidate?
221 - I don’t think Fox could ever be a ‘unity’ candidate. He’s too close to the US Republicans for many on the cenre and left of the party. A more likely option for this type of candidate would probably be a Rifkind or a Willets.
SeanT in times like thse the accident syndrome applied and individual reports can be
SeanT in times like these the accident syndrome applies and individual reports can be honest but misleading. Three planes crashing equals one car dented etc. Its natural and not necessarily sinister.
And apologies for any garbles with part of this message. The computery thing in front of me went weird.
221.”do you not think that in the unlikely instance of both Davids falling the good doctor (Fox) would step up as a ‘Lets not split the party by choosing Ken’ candidate? ”
ok, that the party should not fall apart, but they should gain some voters in the meantime.
222 - I agree about Fox. Willets has run the best campaign - some real good stuff. I hope whoever gets the top job makes him shadow chancellor. Rifkinds campaign has been strange - has he made any significant speeches yet ?
226 - Fair point about Fox. I’m unconvinced about Willets though - he’s clearly very smart, but not ashamed to show it and I don’t think people like being talked down to, but would rather have someone they can relate to. He seems to come across (at least to me) as more interested in power and how to do well for himself than as interested in the electorate and there problems. Still it’s just an impression gained when at 6th Form College in Havant and clearly students aren’t the most representative of people to talk to!
Well I’m from the socially liberal wing of the party and I’m still leaning towards Fox.
228. Andy, I’ve to ask him this: what’s the “Mayor Livingstone is really taking the pee” story in the website linked in your signature?
229.”I’ve to ask him this”
ask you, not him (I’ve to remember not to post while watching TV :/) )
I really cannot see Ken Clarke being the unity candidate. Not even the last chance candidate. He has done almost everything possible since 1997 to ensure there is no unity. Not on purpose of course, but his ego is so enormous he cannot believe that the Tories can live without him. He is right and all those that disagree with him are wrong. He thinks he has the right to the leadership and does not need to work for the party or that role.
Emotionally he will not convert the party majority (old and young) who recognise the Thatcher legacy not least because he is the cabinet minister that told her to quit or else.
He is a no hoper. But if by some fluke of a twisted voting system he wins then Tory unity is a no hoper. And hopes of victory in the general election are simply ashes from the party’s pyre.
If KC were an architect you would enjoy boozing over the plans and colour charts but your house would fall down as soon as you moved in. The architect would still be loafing around outside with his cigar and would tell you to stop moaning, its you own fault, for trusting the plumber.
re 219. Yes that post 104 on the Clarke thread was very interesting and does suggest that some former IDS support might come his way. I’m still not convinced that it is widespread.
When the French referendum went NON my immediate reaction was that this would neutralise the EU issue in the party and make it much easier for KC. Within one minute of the vote being announced I plsced a big spread bet on him.
What really did change my thinking was the reaction of many long-standing Tory contributors to the site - people whose views I really respect. I still think that they have got it right in their assessment of how KC is perceived. I hope they are wrong because UK politics would be better with a few years of KC in the hot seat - knocking Blair about a bit and taking on the dour Brown if ever the Labour party is stupid enough to make him leader.
232.”and taking on the dour Brown if ever the Labour party is stupid enough to make him leader. ”
Labour would be stupid if it would not make Brown leader and if they would have made him leader before the election, they would now have a 100+ majority.
Your comments about Brown sometimes make me believe you’re Allister Campbell in disguise.
At any rate, I am with Mike. KC versus GB would be an interesting match - and a grudge match at that because KC believes GB has had the credit for KS’s economic policies. And I don´t agree that Labour would have done better under GB at the last election. TB has many faults, and I have never been a fan. But Conservatives find it hard to vote against him. They would find it easier to vote against Brown.
233. Well Allie C and I have one thing in common - we both support Burnley football club and stuck with them during the really bad years when they were within 30 minutes of being booted out of the Football league. His loyalty to the club is extraordinary, particularly as he is not from the town.
234. I actually think that Brown is good politician and maybe a better politician than Blair (and that doesn’t mean is better than Blair in winning elections).
Here it seems that everybody “hate” Brown.
235. Alastair Campbell suffered a worse thing than supporting the Burnley football club: being forced to vote for Glenda Jackson.
He’s not happy with her voting record (guess why?) and he reminded her that as a labour voter he expected her to support Labour manifesto. Glenda answered that she hasn’t read the manifesto.
Ken Clarke would not, I am afraid, be able to knock either Blair or Brown around. If he could I would be a great supporter. But all that trading in death bagage, let alone the supping Ken has done with the Blairite devil, would have him on the ropes fairly smartish.
Have you ever seen KC try to take either of them on directly, as he would have to do as Tory leader? Nope? Ever wonder why?
“Hate” I didn´t say. Back in the days of John Smith I thought Labour would be better off with Brown than with Blair. Indeed I still think he would have been the better choice, and that Labour would have achieved more of the things they wished to achieve. Blair might have made a very good foreign secretary. I don´t know who else they have to replace Blair, but I don´t see Brown as being good at winning the next election. And that is normally seen as a key element in being a good politician.
239. yes, sorry. Dislake is a better word.
Blair has always been very lucky and I fear (being a Gordon’s fan) that Brown won’t be so lucky.
240. Obviously “dislike” and not “dislake”.
It’s not my best night in spelling….
On the other hand the stuff David Davis’s crowd keep putting out about council houses and single parent family are not convincing as an argument not even to another secondary modern boy brought up in a single parent family that didn’t have the luxury of a council house. But still he grew up and learnt to kill with his bare (or is it bear) hands and jump out of a helicopter.
Oh good. Sounds like an advert for Paddy Pantsdown to me, and look what happened to him.
238. Oh for Christ’s sake Blue2Win say he’s too old, say his views on Europe are out of date but this merchant of death nonsense, is sheer b%%lls. He’s not selling heroin is he? How many former MPs, tory, labour etc work/lobby for various stuff, how much money did the Labour Party take from Ecclestone before the decision to exempt Formula One from the ban on tobacco advertising?
Oppose him on policy grounds fair enough, but this fake morality hogwash over something he has never tried to hide, do me a favour.
236. Andrea, we have a large majority of Lib Dem and Tory posters on this site. I doubt that any of them “hate” Brown, they are just worried that he will rebuild the coalition of voters that gave Labour such sweeping victories in 1997 and 2001.
244. yes, Lorcan. The “hate” word was wrong, sorry.
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labour/story/0,9061,1534359,00.html
I want propose a new sport: the Kate Hoey Hunting.
231 Blue2Win, at least Clarke had the b%%lls to knife her in the front, unlike some other weasels who prevaricated, but drew the knife in the tearoom, she may not like him but i bet she respected him more for being upfront unlike the other guys.
“at least Clarke had the b%%lls to knife her in the front, unlike some other weasels who prevaricated, but drew the knife in the tearoom, she may not like him but i bet she respected him more for being upfront unlike the other guys.”
I had a snigger at this considering some of the recent discussions on alternative meanings of “tearoom”
More seriously, Clarke was a pretty good enforcer for Thatcher at Health and Education.
245. I’m sure Kate Hoey’s constituents in Vauxhall will be delighted to see that she is putting their priorities first, as always.
247. “I had a snigger at this considering some of the recent discussions on alternative meanings of “tearoom”
Book Value, How you dare …..the Iron Lady would never frequent such places!
247 and 249 Doh! Didn’t see that one. But my posts at 243 and 246 were genuine, i respect genuine opposition to KC on policy, i really don’t like his Europe stance but i do regard trumping up emotive language against him for something he has never hid, when you consider what others do, as a poor excuse for an argument.
250 - That’s OK then, because I’m sure LD’s and Labour won’t mention it if he ever became leader.
On the earlier comments ocncerning our ancient universities, the astounding success of Oxonian graduates who are party leaders against other graduates or non-graduates has been mentioned before on this site. Going back to the last time that a non-Oxford graduate beat an Oxford graduate, Attlee still beat Chrchill in the popular vote in 1951. Excluding the quintessential Balliol man, Asquith, and the decline of the Liberals to minor-party status under his leadership (of his adversaries, Lloyd George, Bonar Law and Macdonald were non-graduates, and Baldwin was a Tab), the last time a non-Oxonian beat an Oxonian in the national contest was Diraeli’s victory over Gladstone in 1874.
229 It’s a story from the GLA group about Livingstone advising people not to flush the toilet.
Conservative Environment spokesman Roger Evans said: “Water use is clearly an important issue but the Mayor is being a tad alarmist with his request that Londoners do not flush the toilet unless it is absolutely necessary. If the issue of water usage is so great that we have to consider such unappealing solutions then why has the Mayor waited so long to act. He should have tackled this issue long ago.”
253. Did he really say it? If so, it’s one of the stupidest things said by a politician (but the list is probably long).
251. Course they will. But one the Public won’t care except say the Guardian, did they care abourt Ecclestone? Two they sling mud at him, they’ve been in Govt so long now he slings mudback at them vis the public gets bored loses interest in whose right=score draw
If so, it’s one of the stupidest things said by a politician
It would barely make it into Ken’s personal Top 100. But we will still vote for him, even if we wouldn’t want to visit his house after he’s been on the lagers.
176. Lennon “Politicians generally aren;t the sort of people who studied Maths or Engineering at Uni. (although I’m sure that someone’ll prove me wrong)”
I count myself a politician. (Council Leader) I am a Chartered Engineer, with a PhD in Maths.
256.”If so, it’s one of the stupidest things said by a politician ”
How are you able to type in italic?
258 - <i>whatever you want to put in italics</i>
259. Thanks BV. I’ll forgive you for the horrible suggestion of the Iron Lady and Messer Clarke in a tearoom…..
259. Thanks book value, it’s easier to do it than explain it, and I was getting horribly mixed up with my ampersands before you came to my rescue.
255 - I should say that I did vote Clarke last time ( I wanted to vote Portillo ) Maybe it will be the only time I will ever be allowed vote in a leadership election ?
I’m against Clarke this time due to age and the cigarette selling. The second because he should have spent that time working for the party, if he ever really wanted to become leader. He has already said that if he doesn’t win this time he won’t leave the board room to join the shadow cabinet of any of his rivals.
238. KC took on Brown pretty convincingly when he was Chancellor and Brown was his Shadow - even Brown neatly slips the Clarke period at Number 11 into his much-vaunted fifty consecutive quarters of economic growth. If the economy starts hitting the buffers, Clarke has the credibility and experience to promise a solid alternative. The “don’t mention the economy” stance of the last campaign was understandable but hardly inspired confidence to floating voters!
262. Did Hague Volunteer to Serve under ids or howard? did davis under hague? i think i smell selective hypocrsisy here.
I used to imagine / daydream that the end of the Tory Party would be dramatic, a big bang, a huge implosion after the scale of the kicking received at the hands of an electorate who finally had enough of a party that they had outgrown. But I was wrong. The Tory Party is boring itself out of existence. It is now 2 and a half months since the election and all this site has discussed, bar a couple of slight diversions about Cheadle and the German election is this most excruciatingly boring of political events.
On and on and on the navel gazing goes. On and on and on the bitching and backbiting goes. Can’t we talk about something interesting, like the Easter Island tourist industry, or the Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice market, or whether the Boston Red Sox can pull out a second World Series now they have broken the jinx of the Yankees? Please….
265. Thank you for going on and on…………………… your choice of topic mastermind?
244 - Not true Lorcan , I have known hardly anyone who on this board or in the pubs I frequent where I have been tonight who views GB with either positive or negative feelings . Nulab is Tony Blair and noone else . Even Blunkett raises some emotion mostly nowadays negative but GB registers 0.1 on the Richter scale .
265 - Have to sat Paul , I rather agree , interminably discussing the same nonenties squabbling over the leadership of a political party past it’s sell by date .
Hopefully Teresa will drag me off yo bed in a mo . LOL
This is the reason for voting Ken: http://www.statesmanorskatesman.co.uk/clarke.jpg
although it was graet David Dais replied I’ll have to write to David Cameron….(thanks for linking to the site - Ted Heath RIP)
266. New Jersey and Virginia have elections this year don’t they? I think that New jersey is 59% dem 41% GOP, whereas Virginia is the opposite with 60% GOP in the House of Delegates, with 38% Dem and a small independent block IIRC. Perhaps the results of those will give us an indication of the likely swings in the Senate elections next year. If there is a big swing away from the GOP in Virginia, then it could give the Dems some momentum into 2006. If the Dems too back the Senate, then I think the odds will shorten on Hilary Clinton standing in 2008. Watch the Virginia vote and you may get a headstart on the US presidential market.
As an addendum. There is a candidate in the NJ gubernatorial race called Ed ‘NJ weedman’Forchion, who looks a sort. He is handsome young and has cracking dreads. He looks a far more serious candidate than any on offer in the Tory Party race.
270 - conversely there was a candidate for a Virginia House seat in 2004 called Al Weed, who was most disconcerted at the continual disappearance of his “Vote For Weed” placards.
Link to the ‘weedman’s site’ I just found. http://www.njweedman.com/
264 - I didn’t back Davis last time and Hague has said he won’t stand for the leadership this time. My point that Clarke should have been helping the party out in the last four years not selling cigarettes if he wanted to be considered seriously for leadership this time. Every other candidate who is actually standing has taken positions within the party in the last four years and no one else has said they are not available for service if they lose.
Can you perhaps point me to my hypocrisy ?
Perhaps ‘NJ Weedman’ was nicking Al’s posters, BV - or was Al from the Legalize Marijuana Party as well?
Actually to be fair to Ed, given his choice of poison as it were, he probably couldn’t have been bothered to go all the way down to Virginia to nick posters, unless there was a serious shortage of Rizla papers in the Jersey City area.
Perhaps Clarke can join forces with Ed ‘NJ Weedman’ Forchion, John
It would be a political match made in heaven. Ed’s got the looks to draw the kids back to the Tories and Ken can make sure that Ed never runs out of backy for his joints.
Al was a Democrat - but the name didn’t have much relation to his platform and he seemed a bit put out that the only publicity he got was the lost placards.
I think the blame was pinned on the local shtoodents in Charlottesville.
273 - 35% of the electorate are smokers and others are ambivalent to the habit . At the moment none of the political parties represent their views so perhaps KC can convert non Conservatives to him on this subject and attract voters in the North and normally Labour voting housing estates .
Interest I think I spot in a real live Ken Clarke supporter?
265 - Everyone on this site is free to discuss what they want. No one is forced to talk about the Tory leadership contest, if you don’t want to why not discuss another topic rather than sneer at us.
We’re not going to go out with a big bang, we’re not going to implode, it’s not going to be dramatic because we’re not going to let our party die.
277 - if we could get all the smokers, at 35%, that would at least be a 2% increase on our normal 33%. So maybe I’m wrong !
279 - Hi Max - Don’t rise to our bait - LOL - but you must admit that if even some of us anoraks are getting a bit bored with it , imagine what effect it is having on the people out there in the real world .
Here is a bit more, including dirty tricks allegations.
http://readthehook.com/stories/2004/10/27/newsGoodeWeedDemsSeeWideTh.html
I should have mentioned that Weed’s opponent was Virgil Goode, leading to the construction of some “Goode Weed” hybrids/
277 - Spot on Mark. The BAT thing is ridiculous. People are free to make their own choices, if they want to smoke then they know the consequences. Part of mre just thinks non-smokers are jealous, cos everyone knows smoking is cool!!
281 - Bit Mark, without it we’d have nothing to talk about, Looked up bar billiards, I’ve never seen anything so complicated ever!!
280 - Was in the pub tonight - pretty packed as it was Friday estimate 80% plus smokers and the rest including myself did not mind . None of these people’s views are represented by any of the political parties at the moment .
284 - Very simple game , Max , pot the balls and don’t knock the pegs over . My son has scored 25,000 , my best is only 9.500 . There are some tables in Scotland , played on 1 in Oban some years ago .
John T But smokers die at a faster rate than non-smokers so getting to the magic 42 percent that way seems unlikely to be successful.
Although, more seriously, I agree with Max.. This thread is about KC and the Tory leadership so why moan if that is what we talk about?
And, no, Tory party is not going to die or implode or simply go away. Its here to stay and in 2009 we are going to get at least a hung parliament and hopefully a Tory majority government. So sneer away in desperation, do.
Mark. Try http://www.njweedman.com/ . I’m sure it would have some links to some other serious smoking sites
285 - I’m in the do not mind category as well ( except around food ). When the new laws come in however I can see % of smokers continuing to drop quite fast.
288 - Not sneering at all , perhaps stirring the pot a bit . Seriously though , yes a hung parlisment is a hot favourite next GE , A Conservative majority or even largest party extremely unlikely and nonw of the candidates for the leadership have the potential to change that except KC and some would do a lot of harm to your cause .
290 Mark Your advice as a friend of the Conservative party is in our best intersts of course.
I seem to remember you made some marginally optimistic claims about 2005 as well Blue2win.
To be fair I am partly having a go at Mike for stoking the fire by setting up so many threads on the subject. There are some interesting political things going on in the world at the moment that have a bearing on 2009/10 (such as the knock on effects of State elections as I pointed out earlier), and they are being ignored for a race that has hardly set the world ablaze.
I’m sorry Blue and Max, but Mark was right. I am very interested in politics, so if I am bored, what is Joe Public thinking?
291 - You may be surprised at the impartiality of my comments sometimes as I am not actually a member of the Lib Dems , Teresa does smoke and has as have many of the prople I speak to in the real world of the pubs I frequent have made it clear that they feel oppressed by all the major parties in the country . I have pointed out on here before that the danger is that this protest could end up going to a rather nastier party such as the BNP .
Teresa calls so I am off to bed .
292 - Joe Public probably doesn’t care. People will be interested in the end result and thats all. State elections (the Canadian elections could come up soon as well) are interesting but probably to an even smaller number of people than the Tory leadership, but we need something to keep us going till the Scottish/Welsh elections in 2007!
294 - All three Welsh Tory MP’s are due to come out for Davis according to the BBC.
Max. Personally I think it counts. It gives the impression that you are only interested in yourselves. Your party had a chance to show the world that after gaining 33 seats you were getting back some unity and purpose. But what did you lot do, jump on each other like a pack of beasts again. So what does Joe (and Joanna, as this is the constituency you are realy losing in) Public think?
The link is great BV. Although story seemed to be saying it wasn’t the students, but a co-ordinated campaign by the GOP. I am sure that some pot smokers in Charllotesville did liberate a few of them though.
Anyway, like Mark, the wife calls. Good (or should I say Goode) night….
293 - Impartiality? What impartiality?
I don’t think people should be impartial on this site - they only get found out.
But there is a degree of arrogance among the Tory posters (who are the majority at the moment) - although Ben does manage in one post to probably match all the Tory posters put together
While I agree with some of Max’s analysis - I think the Tories have long long way to go north of the border - clearly supporting Hearts is not enough.
Working out why you lose in Reekie might be a start. With an STV councl election polling less than 20% is bad whereas 35% gets you one Westminster seat it gets you a shed load of local Councillors.
As for Max’s bizarre choice of Edinburgh football teams - how ‘wee’ is this…
‘Collins and Co give Leiven proper sent-off
13th October, 1997
Source: The Scotsman
An injustice was finally put right at Tynecastle yesterday when a crowd of 8,057 turned up to pay tribute to the former Hearts and Scotland defender Craig Levein.
Two years ago to the day, less than 3,000 turned up to witness Levein’s official testimonial against Coventry City but that was more down to a dismal spell for the team than any disrespect for the gifted defender.’
Sorry I couldn’t resist it!
240 Andrea :
and I fear (being a Gordon’s fan) that Brown won’t be so lucky
He will have been Chancellor for 10 years or so when the time comes,
and as such will reap what he has sown.
It will have nothing to do with luck
Did you see the UK growth figures yesterday ? Worst in 12 years !
No wonder he’s looking to cheat on his own ‘Golden’ rule.
Completation of Polls taken this week from Germany
CDU/CSU 45 % 43 % 44 % 43 % 45 % 42 %
SPD 26 % 27 % 27 % 26 % 27 % 27 %
Green 8 % 8 % 8 % 10 % 8 % 9 %
FDP 8 % 7 % 7 % 7 % 7 % 7 %
The Left/PDS 9 % 12 % 11 % 10 % 9 % 12 %
Other parties 3 % 3 % 3 % 4 % 4 % 3 %
It is clear that the CDU/CSU will be the largest party in the Bundestag after the election barring some unexpected event. The SPD vote is split between the SPD and the new Left Party under Oscar Lafontaine which seems to be taking away at least a third of the SPD vote.
The Green Party seems to be uneffected by its 7 year coalition with the SPD and the advent of the new Left Party. They should return to the Bundestag with the same number of members. The FDP numbers are also uneffected.
179, 257: yes, I’m a PhD in maths too, though frankly it’s 30 years old now and I’d probably struggle with a maths A-level. In the more general sense of having a scientific/analytical turn of mind, it’s quite common in Parliament, and there are a number of MPs who have had successful scientific careers.
300: Thanks, Heinrich. The interesting bet would be on whether the centre-right CDU-CSU/FDP will achieve an overall majority - as your figures show, it’s getting very tight (typically 50-47).
Tory leadership: I think it’s a bit boring ATM too, but I’m not saying that out of hostility. It’s obviously important who wins, but nothing much is happening, or will happen for a month or two. As I’ve said, I can’t say that any of them except Ken Clarke look very dangerous from the Labour viewpoint, but as has been pointed out one can’t always tell in advance how good or bad a leader will be.
If the CDU/CSU and FDP vote total don’t get 50% or over they can still form a government either it is a minority one or not. They just will not have a big majority in the Bundestag, they will still have the 2/3 majority in the upper chamber. The CDU/CSU have ruled out any kinda of grand coalition with the SPD.
So the voters are going to have to make up there minds or find themselves back at the polls in a few months time. B/c the SPD and the Greens are not going to form any kinda of coalition or working agreement with The Left/PDS.
301 You’re up early Nick considering it’s the first weekend of your holiday.
297 - You have to be like Sherlock Holmes and deduce which of my comments are partisan , which are made just to wind up some of the other posters and/or which are impartial advice . Sometimes it is not even clear to myself - LOL .
300 - It is interesting that unlike in the UK , everyone seems to have total faith in the accuracy of the opinion polls in Germany . Is the difference in the pollsters and methods or the stability of voter’s opinions ? . The polls are all remarkably consistent allowing for sampling errors .
296 - Jump on each other like a pack of beasts - I think thats completely over the top. Nick’s right its just boring and won’t get interesting untill nearer the party conference.
Dan - There still drawing up the boundaries for the STV council elections. The provisional ones in Edinburgh are quite good for the LD’s but I think may still be subject to changs as some of the new wards are a bit bizzare. OTOH The Borders (where some of the wards are now huge) boundaries are a bit better for us. Don’t know about the rest of the country because nothings been published yet.
John Curtice did a bit of research and believed that Labour lose around 100 councillors the SNP gain around 80-90, the LD’s lose a few and the Tories make a gain of 5. Don’t know what happens to the independents though.
303 , woddy . Nick Palmer might be posting from Bali in which case , getting up at this time means he’s a lazy sod !! or he’s about to defect to UKIP !!
304 , Mark . Sherlock Holmes lives in West Bridford , or so he keeps telling us !! Frankly I’m not sure , more like this :
http://www.jestwishes.com/Clouseau.htm
or
http://www.primates.ximian.com/~federico/new-photos/2003-02-26-clouseau.jpg
306 - Good Morning Jack , I’m just off out shopping so I will leave it to you to decide whether to raise the tone of the debate on here , do we need Clousseau to investigate the London burrrmmms ?
With a 5% threshold for minor parties to get in the Budestag, CDU/CSU/FDP should be able to get an overall majority if they are 48% plus. Shroeder though is a canny campaigner, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he knocks a few percent off the CDU lead by September.
307 , Mark . Never rely on me for anything !! Happy shopping , I’m of shortly to look at cars for Kinkell …. God help all motorists !!
308 , Richard . Kinkell eager for a get away looks over my shoulder and your good name pops up ! Are you the Richard Church of Wellingborough Lib Dem PPC fame and he tells me of Norhampton repute , or is the idle fruit of my loins barking up the wrong Caledonian forest ??
278. Blue2Win actuallly no Cameron is my first Choice juist ahead of Clarke. I don’t like Clarke’s views on Europe at all but i would be prepared to tolerate him now the constitution is dead, the euro is dead because of the referndum pledge etc.
Cameron is a risk but he is the only one like Clarke who looks like he can “sell” on TV. I’m noy passionately pro-ken at all but i felt the need to inject some honesty into the argument. In the past you’ve argued against him quite cleverly on policy grounds, i didn’t exspect you to come out with “Guardian” Style trash. I hope you accept some of the Points i madess.
310 - I agree. Like quite a few of the Tories on this site I would now consider myself a Cameronian, but unlike some Tories on this site I would not be unhappy with KC winning.
Cameron is the riskier candidate but maybe the party needs to take risks. What we don’t need is a leader carrying on what we’ve been doing for the last 8 years.
311- Cameron is the riskier candidate but maybe the party needs to take risks
I agree that the tories should take some risks. They wouldn’t probably go under their 30-32% anyway (even if Widdecombe will lead them), so why not take a risk?
309 - Like Kinkell’s new car Jack , hope it didn’t threaten the bank balance http://www.crashnet.org.uk
299-Does’t look good for Brown in terms of the economy,he has had to move the the goalposts by 2 years to try & make the numbers fit his golden rule!
Instead of owning up that he has got it wrong he moves the goalposts by 2 yeras and £ 13 billion.
Naturally the timing coincides with the end of parliament so no parliamentary discussion can take place,looks like the wheels are well & truly coming off.
Jack W, why does Kinkell need a car when he already has a more fitting form of transport?
http://www.stutteriskovlunden.dk/show.php?SH335
305 - Sorry just to correct myself nearly all the provisional boundaries for the new wards have been published now, which I’m sure is of little or no interest to anyone outwith Scotland!
256 Lorcan-Please leave the we out,I will never vote for a candidate that tries to justify suicide bombers as your hero Mr Livingstone did this week.
312 Andrea
On what do you base :
I agree that the tories should take some risks. They wouldn’t probably go under their 30-32% anyway (even if Widdecombe will lead them), so why not take a risk?
Please ?
woody at 303: As politicians always claim, we’re not really on holiday, merely working in the constituency :-). It’s more or less true, though I’m easing up on the 80-hour weeks for a bit and will be taking two weeks away in September unless we’re recalled.
317. If you’re a Libdems, you’ve Jenny Tonge who made the same thing in a more explicit way.
If you’re a tory, you voted for a woman (Mrs Thatcher) who defended a killer like Pinochet more than once.
318. I think that the tories have a core vote made by the 30% (more or less) of the population.
And if you’re a Tory you also have a vice-chair who believes the government should negotiate with al-Qaeda:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4695797.stm
As does Lembit Opik
321. Oh that woman, I was happy that she lost in May.
Book value. We don’t have “vice-chair”s in the Conservative Party as chairs are inanimate objects.
She’s a vice-chairman.
323 - ah: let the BBC know then as I was quoting their wording.
321. If true it would have been disgusting. As it is it seems naive at best and utterly tasteless at worst. However she does not say negotiate with Al qaeda, or bin laden. It seems a rather foolish attempt to talk about pealing off sympathisers from the Islamic nihilists. I agree with your sentiments but i think it is foolish to use words that were never there to make your point, it is distorting to your argument.
321 - she says “We must start engaging with, not agreeing with, the radical groups who we have said in the past are complete nutters.”
And though she according to the article she says “she later added that she would not sit down with terrorists themselves”, she uses the analogy of Sinn Fein/IRA, when she must know that Sinn Fein leaders are part of the IRA’s military command. Clearly by sitting down with Sinn Fein we negotiated with the IRA, so I can’t see how “engaging with radical groups” is substantively any different from negotiating with al-Qaeda.
Anrea @ 320
Sorry, but on what is :
I think that the tories have a core vote made by the 30% (more or less) of the population.
Based please ??
No polling in any form of election bears you thoughts out.
Andrea - sorry have just re read 312 - My apologies !
317. john, I think you misunderstood my post at 256. I was just pointing out that Livingstone has a long history of making bizarre, misjudged and plain stupid comments. Nonetheless he has been elected and re-elected as Mayor of London, and it would be premature to write off his chances in 2008 just yet.
329. I thought there was a two term Limit on Directly Elected Mayors of London?
330 No. Urban myth
Are they the “tories talibans” feared by Alan Duncan?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4713181.stm
332 - Yes Andrea. Read more here -
http://www.conservativehome.com/record.jsp?type=opinion&ID=49
Yes, God forbid anyone should dare believe in the sanctity of marriage, the importance of the family and the traditional values this country was founded on!
I thought you liberals were supposed to be tolerant?
334.I thought you liberals were supposed to be tolerant?
and I thought Christians (like those MPs) should be tolerant and spread love and not their “hate” (like those MPs sometimes do).
I still remember the age of consent debate and Mr Leigh’s behaviour toward Eleanor Laing.
The Tory Taliban on the march !! Ayatollah Edward Leigh just on 5Live explaining why the Tories need to ape the right wing conservative agenda of George Bush to achieve electoral success !! Laugh I nearly choked on my venison porridge !!
BTW further rebellions in Tory ranks as the new intake of Tory MPs on a fact finding mission visit Hampstead Heath and insist they will wear ties !!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/somerset/content/image_galleries/wellington_colts_gallery.shtml?2
The US is a very religious christian country, the UK is quite the opposite. I would have serious reservations (putting it lightly) for voting for a Tory party run along the lines of the religious right in America.
337 , Sophia . Absolutely , If the Tories adopt a “Bush” agenda it will rank alongside Foot’s “longest suicide note in history” . Remembering that at the US Presidential election most UK tory voters opted for John Kerry !
334 - I’m not sure this country was really “founded on” a particular set of religious values. That can be said to some extent of the US (though it is tendentious to claim that, say, Jefferson, was anything like conventionally Christian). But if you want to talk about a “foundation” of this country (the Glorious Revolution maybe) I’m not sure you’d find much that’s particularly religiously inspired. Or perhaps I’m misinterpreting your point.
339 - BV - Sorry, my mistake for not being clearer with regard to my meaning. I didn’t mean to suggest a ‘founding’ the way the Americans tend to think of it as a distinct moment in time. I meant to suggest that, throughout time, traditional social institutions like the Church, marriage, and others have been the grounding on which the rest of our way of life has been built. Society has grown and matured over the centuries, of course, to the point where many no longer think the old traditions are relevant anymore, and perhaps those people are correct, who knows? I tend to disagree and think that a society is only as strong as the ground it’s built on and that we would all do well to remember that. This doesn’t mean that everyone has to conform to the traditionalist view of society, but I think a healthier respect for it and not dismissing it and it’s proponents as walking relics of a dying age, would be helpful.
But I’m afraid I must stand by my comments to Andrea. Some of the least tolerant people I know (and yes, Tabman - I do know a few) are liberals (note the small l). Some of them have exhibited worse and more vindictive reactions to disagreement than any Tories ever have.
340 - thanks AHM, I understand the point you were trying to get across.
Book Value Its an interesting question as to how far religion influenced the British Constitution. We have a union of church and state of course, and it is easy to argue that the early development of parliamentary government was energised by the Puritan revolution and regicide in the 17th century, reinforced at the Restoration and taken further in the ‘Glorious Revolution’ of 1688.
The ‘Catholic Question’ was used as a lever well after that - a mind set that is the direct ancestor of the current Northern Ireland divide.
Perhaps because of the role religion played we are so unobservant today?
342 - it is an interesting question indeed - what I was really trying to say was not that no one’s religious beliefs influenced their political actions, but that it would be a bit of a stretch to see the constitution or politics as rooted in a set of religious beliefs (witness the evolution of the Tories from being Catholic-leaning in 1690 to largely opposing Catholic emancipation in the early 19th Century). And although the Puritans proclaimed the supremacy of Parliament, once Cromwell got in he was a military dictator - a label we are wrongly squeamish in applying to him.
Just a random reply to Sophia:
I’m a British expat naturalised now an American, and I have to say, I am continually flabbergasted at this “religious right” obsession some people back home have about Conservatism in the US, and the squeamishness this takes on when Tories speak about it in the UK.
Americans are not in the throes of some religious wave, tied to Conservatism. This is a grossly exaggerated view of the American right which if you’re not careful, will catch you off-guard when the Republican Party select Rudolph Giuliani (socially liberal Republican) as their candidate in 2008.
(Trust the BBC to say then that Giuliani’s “faction” is grappling for control of the Republican Party, and it’s a battle to the death for the future of the same. *sigh*)
Cheers,
Victoria
“when the Republican Party select Rudolph Giuliani (socially liberal Republican)”
Well I will stick my neck out and say I would indeed by caught off-guard by that.
What price are you expecting Giuliani to pay in terms of the shift to the right he will have to accept?
My goodness, am I blogging in Mandarin or Cantonese?
Book Value, I was at pains to point out that the Republican Party is NOT in the deathgrip some Christian Conservative asphyxiation, as MSM would have you believe.
Thus if (most of us think, when) Rudy Giuliani is selected as Presidential nominee for the Repub. Party, he won’t have to “pay” any price for a shift right-wards (read, start quoting the Book of Common Prayer, and say that John Paul II should be made patron saint of the blogosphere).
Like any faction in politics, there are compromises, and alliances, but I cannot stress enough that the US political Conservatives come in all shapes and sizes — and many of them are atheists.
I have no quarrels with Rudy Giuliani, and would vote for him gladly. And I say this as an observant Roman Catholic to whom Dubya is da bomb, as the chavs would say.
Cheers,
Victoria
346 - erm, I did understand your point, I just didn’t agree with it. But we’ll see in due course, won’t we?
Speaking of Giuliani, I mention him as an aside in my
It's just not us that have problems with that old posh "thing", you know. Alas.
Cheers,
Tuesday, where I inject our old class-consciousness into the recent nomination of Judge Roberts to the US Supreme Court.Victoria">blogpost
Cheers,
Victoria
That we will, Book Value, that we will.
And if what I say comes to pass, please deposit £500 in my Lloyds bank account in lieu of flowers.
Cheers,
Victoria
Sadly the only prize will be the admiration of your fellow posters.
But let me ask the question less provocatively: what, if any, policy shifts do you think Giuliani would make in running for the nomination?
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