Bank holiday competition
August 29th, 2005
Win a prize that money cannot buy
To occupy you over the bank holiday, another of politicalbetting.com’s occasional prediction competitions. It looks like the only prize on offer will be the admiring respect of your peers on the site.
The rules
- Post your entry as a comment on this thread.
- Please don’t use this thread for anything other than entries – discussion of the questions can go on the thread below this one.
- Entries close at 11.59pm BST on Saturday 3rd September, as measured by the time shown on your comment.
- Make sure you put a valid address in the “email” box when you post your entry so you can be contacted if you win.
- One entry per person please, even for those who post here under multiple names!
- The scoring scheme is shown along with the questions. No question will give you a negative score.
- After the last result is available (either the Conservative National Convention on 27th September or the Livingston by-election, whichever is later) I will add up the scores and ask Mike Smithson to announce the winner on the site.
The questions
UK
1: What percentage of votes cast at the Conservative National Convention will be for the constitutional amendment giving MPs the final say in electing a leader?
10 points for the correct answer, reducing by 1 point for every whole 1% you are out
2: Which party will win the Livingston by-election?
5 points
3: What will be the percentage turnout in the Livingston by-election?
10 points for the correct answer, reducing by 1 point for every whole 1% you are out
4: What will be Labour’s winning margin in Livingston as a percentage of votes cast? (if Labour lose, this will be a negative number)
10 points for the correct answer, reducing by 1 point for every whole 0.5% you are out
Germany
5: Which parties will hold ministerial office in the new government?
4 points for each correct party; -4 for each incorrect party; CDU–CSU treated as a single party
6: What percentage of national (party list) vote share will the FDP receive?
10 points for the correct answer, reducing by 1 point for every whole 0.25% you are out
7: What percentage of national (party list) vote share will Die Linke–PDS receive?
10 points for the correct answer, reducing by 1 point for every whole 0.25% you are out
New Zealand
8: How many parties (no need to name them) will win seats in parliament?
10 points for the correct answer, reducing by 5 points for each 1 you are out
9: What percentage of national (party list) vote share will the National party receive?
10 points for the correct answer, reducing by 1 point for every whole 0.5% you are out
Japan
10: What percentage of vote share will the Democratic party receive in the block constituencies?
10 points for the correct answer, reducing by 1 point for each whole 0.5% you are out
Good luck!
Philip Grant
Guest editor
Mike Smithson is on holiday until 5th September.
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1)58%
2)Labour
3)35%
4)12%
5)CDU,FDP
6)12%
7)8%
8)5
9)30%
1- 54%
2- Labour
3- 38%
4- 20%
5- CDU-CSU, FDP
6- 8.25%
7- 8.75%
8- 7
9- 38%
10- 31.5%
UK
1. 48%
2: Liberal Democrats
3: 36%
4: -4%
Germany
5: CDU, Alliance 90/Greens, FDP
6: 9%
7: 6%
New Zealand
8: 6
9: 43%
Japan
10: 42%
1. 55%
2. Labour
3. 39%
4. 15%
5. CDU-CSU, FDP
6. 7.75%
7. 6.25%
8. 6
9. 35.5%
10. 29.5%
1. 57%
2. Labour
3. 32%
4. 8%
5. CDU , FDP
6. 7%
7. 5.5%
8. 5
9. 39.5%
10. 32.4%
Here goes my answers:
UK:
1 - 63%
2 - Labour
3 - 41.5%
4 - 6.5%
Germany
5 - CDU-CSU; FDP
6 - 6.80%
7 - 5.40%
New Zealand
8 - 6
9 - 37.4%
Japan
10 - 33.1%
1 - 69%
2 - Labour
3 - 38%
4 - 11%
5 - CDU/CSU and FDP
6 - 8.0%
7 - 7.75%
8 - 4
9 - 40.5%
10 - 44%
7 -
1. 55%
2. Labour
3. 38%
4. 12%
5. CDU-CSU, FDP
6. 8%
7. 9%
8. 7
9. 40%
10. 33%
1: 77% of Tories will vote to end party democracy
2. Labour
3: 50% will vote
4: 18% lead
5: CDU-CSU, FDP (sigh)
6: 7.5% FDP share
7: 8.0% Linke share
8: 6 parties - is Jim Andertonm a partyy?
9: 40%
10: 29%, squeezed by the LDP drama
UK
1 - 72%
2 - Labour
3 - 43%
4 - 11%
Germany
1 - CDU/CSU & FDP
2 - 7.75%
3 - 6.5%
New Zealand
1 - 5
2 - 36.75
Japan - 34%
1 – 60%
2 – Labour
3 – 40%
4 – 12%
5 – CDU-CSU, FDP
6 – 8%
7 – 8%
8 – 5
9 – 38%
10- 34%
….Lets just wait and see how appallingly wrong I turn out be when it comes to politics that isn’t confined the region between “Dogger Bank” in the East and Hawaii in the West
1.56%
2Labour
3.38%
4.49%
5.CDU -FDP
6.8.2%
7.8%
8.5.
9.37%
10.31%
8.37%
Here goes………
1. 95%
2. LD (or am I an optimist?)
3. 54
4. -1
5. CDU- FD
6. 5.7
7. 7.0
8. 4
9. 38
10. 40
3. 54
Not too much thought going in here but:
1. 66%
2. Labour (there’s a clue in question 4!)
3. 43%
4. 20%
5. CDU / CSU and FDP
6. 7%
7. 9%
8. 6
9. 42%
10. 34%
1.66%
2Labour
3.28%
4.29%
5.CDU-CSU, SDP (Grand Coalition)
6.5.2%
7.10%
8.5
9.29%
10.39%
1 - 48%
2 - Labour
3 - 42%
4 - 15%
5 - CDU-CSU, FDP, SDP
6 - 8%
7 - 13%
8 - 6
9 - 36%
10 - 32.5%
Here goes , bit dubious on some of these .
1 - 68%
2 - Labour
3 - 48%
4 - 16%
5 - CDU/CSU FDP
6 - 7.25%
7 - 9.25%
8 - 6
9 - 39%
10 - 36%
1: 76
2: Labour
3: 38
4: 15
5: CDU, FDP
6: 8.5
7: 7
8: 6
9: 34
10: 33
1: 52%
2: Labour
3: 42%
4: 11%
5: CDU-CSU, FDP
6: 7.25%
7: 5.75%
8: 6
9: 37%
10: 31%
1. 84%
2. Labour
3. 42%
4. 14%
5. CDU/CSU FDP Coalition
6. 8.5%
7. 8.1%
8. 6
9. 38.5%
10. 32.5%
1) 74%
2) Labour
3) 42%
4) 14.5%
5) CDU/CSU, FDP
6) 7.75%
7) 8.25%
8)6
9)40%
10)38%
1: 76%
2: Labour
3: 43%
4: 8%
5: CDU/CSU, FDP
6: 7.75%
7: 9.25%
8. 6
9: 41%
10: 33%
1: 67%
2: Labour
3: 41%
4: 4%
5: CDU/CSU, FDP
6: 7%
7: 8.5%
8. 6
9: 38%
10: 31%
1. 73%
2. Labour
3. 44%
4. 9%
5. CDU/CSU, FDP
6. 8%
7. 6%
8. 5
9. 36%
10. 30%
I am after the deadline so this is just for fun. Makes me realise that my knowledge of Japan and NZ politics is getting a bit rusty.