Saturday markets update, 3rd September 2005
September 3rd, 2005New, moving and interesting markets this week
The biggest story in British politics over the last few days has been the entry of Kenneth Clarke into the Conservative leadership election. Money in the betting markets has piled on the former Chancellor and pushed him into the second favourite position at 3.1/1, overtaking Shadow Education Secretary David Cameron (6.8/1) but continuing to trail the favourite, Shadow Home Secretary David Davis (0.92/1). All other contenders have slipped to 39/1 and longer.
On other UK markets there has been little movement. Gordon Brown is still by far the favourite to succeed Tony Blair as Labour leader, at odds of 0.28/1. Spreadfair’s market on the length of Blair’s third term is at 118-129 weeks, forecasting the Prime Minister to depart between August and October 2007.
In New Zealand, Labour is still favourite to form a government after the 17th September general election; but a move in the polls towards the opposition National Party has brought the odds closer together. You can now get 0.55/1 Labour, 1.54/1 National.
In Germany, where voters will be electing the new Bundestag on 18th September, eyes will be turning to Sunday’s televised debate between the Social Democrat Chancellor Gerhard Schröder and Christian Democrat leader Angela Merkel. The market on the largest party has the CDU–CSU as the almost certain winner. A more interesting market is Spreadfair’s on vote share, which has picked up liquidity and now has the CDU–CSU on 40.5-44.0% with the SPD on 28.5-32.0%. This week’s newcomer to the markets you can bet in is one on which parties will form the governing coalition after the election. The CDU–CSU and the Free Democrats, who between them are polling around 49%, are the 8/13 favourites, with a “grand coalition” between the CDU–CSU and SPD next up at 6/5. A coalition between the SPD, Greens and the left-wing Linkspartei is seen as unlikely at 12/1. Together these parties are not far behind the CDU–CSU and FDP in the polls; the odds reflect the unlikeliness of them agreeing a deal, with one wing of the Linkspartei being made up of SPD defectors, led by the former SPD chairman and Finance Minister, Oskar Lafontaine.
For those who prefer to play for pride rather than money, remember our prediction competition is still open till midnight tonight.
If you are opening a Spreadfair account, it would be appreciated if you followed the link in this article or on the right-hand sidebar. This pays politicalbetting.com a small commission which goes towards the costs of running the site. Many thanks.
Philip Grant
Guest editor
Mike Smithson is on holiday until 5th September.
MessageSpace Advertising
I am off to a meeting of the National Convention today, preceded by a regional officers meeting. Despite it being outrageous that they are being held on the same day as two of our nation’s football teams play a competitive match, I will at least be in a better position to take the mood of our part of the Constitutional College later this afternoon.
With decisions like this Blair will make Labour unelectable again. An 80’s Islington version of the ‘Mad Max II’.
B2W - Blair won’t be seeking re-election! And I rather think Mr Brown might sacrifice a few lambs (or goats, or whatever…)
New Zealand situation is looking interesting. The last poll give the nats a 3 points lead, but put NZ First under 5%.
2. Yesterday when I read Blair asking more respect, I thought he was asking for more Respect MPs. Then I heard him talking about bad parenting being responsible of anti-social behaviours and I’ve immediatly thought of Mrs Thatcher and his son (is trying to make a coup d’etat an anti-social behaviour?).
Lord Patten is backing Clarke
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4210492.stm
7. Shock Horror
7. Yes, the Clarke campaign is gaining momentum. Davis isn’t going to win by default. He’s going to have to show how effective (or not) a campaigner he is.
Some news concerning the Glasgow Cathcart by-election:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/4211500.stm
Labour will choose the new candidate next Friday.
The Scottish Socialist Party has already chosen Ronnie Stevenson (a social worker and Unison shop steward).
Labour would like to vote on 29 September (the same day of the Livingston by-election), but the decision will be made the the Presiding Officer. Alex Salmond attacked Labour because it would be the shortest campaign in Scottish and British history.
Reading Ann Back’s report of May’s Labour NEC meeting and I’ve found this interesting part:
about a minister
(now an ex-minister) telling Labour supporters to vote LibDem in a
top Tory seat.
Who was this minister? And which seat was he talking about (Folkestone and Hythe?)?
Can someone tell me how you qualify to be a “grandee?”
For me the more people like Patton and Heseltine who back Clarke the less appealing he is!
Clever tactics by Labour if they get both by-elections on the same day.
The Minister was the sacked Denis Macshane.
James M The original Grandees were those who opposed the Levellers and Diggers after the English Civil war, when those socialist tendencies first began to show. Tut!
So to be a Grandee you are unlikely to be left of centre, and if you are so placed on the political spectrum you would have to be an ‘Agitator’.
The original grandees never forgot the slight of being equated with the common herd and most of them turned from being Roundhead supporters to Restoration toffs. Mind you they were not and are not gutter assassins, indeed were quite aristocratic in taste and style. Both modern and ancient, they never wield the knife themselves if they can avoid it, of course. Of course.
So to be a modern Grandee you have to be struggling against a popular tide and usually out of parliament and to have got close to the very top but not quite there. That frustration must be one of the main motivators. Preferably you will have dealt in a bit of political assassination and toadied to the other parties in support of an unpopular policy in your own party (just as the originals ones did), all under the cover of what is best for the nation.
But really you are just looking for another chance to aggrandize yourself ( the verb is not coincidental) while, hopefully, again turning the knife that you helped wield on a former leader or challenger in your party. The press will always talk you up because they love a bit of political nastiness on the side, so you can feel really powerful. Most Grandees think they are being Churchillian when in truth they are being beastly to their successors. But the comeuppance is always waiting. Real power has always eluded the Grandees. They have often have had it in their hands only to see it slip away.
Hezza and Patters meet the specs. Ken Clarke is reputed to be the cabinet minister to first tell Mrs T to quit, while Hezza orchestrated the assassins chorus from the back benches. But as he was in parliament he was not a Grandee then. Now he is out of parliament and less important than he thinks he is, he must be a Grandee.
The Grandees worst moment was in 1922 when the ordinary MPs in the Tory party revolted and formed their famous backbench committee. Mind you the Grandees never give up. They simply colonised the 1922 Committee.
You might say that another word for Grandees in the modern lexicon is: previously respected party figures who have become gullible old men often fighting old forgotten battles and who are well past their sell by date and don’t know the game is up. But I really couldn’t say that, it would be too cruel.
7
I would actually argue very strongly that events over the past week or so have played very strongly into DD’s hands when you sit back and analyse them (which pleases me)
The typically blustering and shameless entrance of Clarke ‘buoyed’ by the mighty recommendations of (so called Grandees) Heseltine and Patten, attempting to totally ignore his absence from front line duty during the party’s time of need, as well as expecting us to accept
“that’s Ok then” now he has hinted (but not apologised for nor condemed his total misjudgement over THE major issue over the past 60 years in Constitutional terms - the defacto surrender of our economic independence with the Euro),never mind his high profile position within the death, sorry tobacco industry is all forgotten then is it?
What is fantastic from DD’s point of view is that Clarke now seems to be on the verge of destroying the only person that might possibly have beaten him in the party election whilst maintaining a semblance of unity in the party.
Never mind what the so called polls about Clarke’s (supposed and transitory) preference amoungst non Conservatives or what the siren voices in the (hardly friends of the Conservative Party) media say, even accepting that I might be totally wrong on both counts(though would obviously strongly beg to differ !)the reason Clarke will not be the next leader is that not only has he been wrong on a critically key issue for the past 15 years, refused to accept the mounting evidence of being wrong in an arrogant and bombastic manner throughout, or refused to help the party at front line level when we needed it the most, is that push comes to shove, even if the convention leaves them with the final say, our MP’s know that there will be an unbridgable chasm, probably (IMHO)irreconcilable, driven through the party were he to be elected.
I won’t argue percentages, because I can’t substantiate them, but do offer an educated view, that he is utterly detested by such a significant number of activists (including this writer obviously) that the party would be unleadable were he elected.
Many of us, though hoping for a DD victory would fall in behind DC if that is how it pans out.
Nothing on earth will convince many of us to work for Clarke.
My own submission is that whatever potential gains he offers
from disaffected Labour or Lib Dems voters, he will lose to abstainers, defectors or minority parties in equal (if not greater) measure.
Again, who knows how this is going to pan out ? but I do believe the impact of this choice will prove seismic for the party, possibly
even for our future.
Perhaps, we’re a misguided/centrist new leadership to give up campaigning on our fundamental principals in the blind pursuit of power, it would, over time, painful as it might be in the meanwhile, be no bad thing.
I just hope we can avoid ourselves the needless pain.
12 - Perhaps what the Conservative party needs is for KC to become leader , do a Kinnock and drive out the right wing of the party , and then NuCon will sweep back to power defeating the slightly more rightwing NuLab .
Evening all - just back from Hampden after getting a pretty decent result. Was at a friends party last night. None of them are particularly political and of the 20 odd people their only one other voted Tory. What was striking was the overwhelmingly positive attitude towards KC. As I’ve said the more I speak to people outwith the party, the more I’m convinced he’s the man for the job.
I disagree that he’s too centrist. The fact he is perceived as so is simply because of his views on Europe. I have also, as yet, met no-one who would leave the party if he became leader. It would also be nice if those on the right of the party would show a bit of respect for our history and realise that our core values were not invented between 1979-and 1990. I’m a huge fan of Lady T but its important that the party addresses todays issues and concerns, not yesterdays.
13 Hi Mark - hope I find you in fine fettle,
I know we disagree on many things and I sense you may have written that somewhat tongue in cheek. Much funnier things have happened though I agree!
Even though (as in previous strings)I’m personally not interested on being part of a ‘victory’ on those terms.
I must admit to being genuinely amazed, but equally delighted that Clarke has displaced Cameron so quickly in the betting.
I simply can’t comprehend how anyone will support Clarke when we all know how divisive he has been.
Setting aside how it might play in the Country (which we can, have and no doubt will again debate !!) I simply can’t start to believe Clarke will prevail if him and DD go head to head !
It certainly would be a definitive moment for the party - that’s for sure !
Cheers
14 Max,
I’m certainly not going fall out with a fellow traveller but you have now (met one). Take my word for it or otherwise but there are many others like me who I know and work with.
I appreciate that others may take a different or more ‘pragmatic’ view
but to many of us he remains far beyond the pall.
There’s quite litterally nothing he can now say or do that will change this for some of us.
I am genuinely fearful for the future if he is sucessful in his quest.
I’d also (respectfully - whilst not looking to start a punch up with
the one nation wing !) question what ‘respect’ is due to a man (of undoubted talent) who has chosen to sit on the back benches in a Heathlike funk since 97, attempting to promote a divisive issue that runs against both Party Poicy and party opinion, when the Party needed him most.
Whatever the rights or wrongs of policy disagreements, that lack of judgement (disloyalty?) is another reason why he is unsuitable in my book.
“I’d also (respectfully - whilst not looking to start a punch up with
the one nation wing !) question what ‘respect’ is due to a man (of undoubted talent) who has chosen to sit on the back benches in a Heathlike funk since 97″
I think he took a sensible decision in doing that. Only Howard after 2001, of all the Majorite Cabinet ministers who took frontbench positions after 1997, really landed any punches. You need a hunger to land punches on the government to be a really good Opposition frontbencher, and Clarke’s too old and too senior to have a hunger for any other post than leader. Most impoortantly, he’d have fought the shift against the EU and the Euro in the Hague and IDS Show Cabinets tooth and nail. He’d probably have been driven by the Shadow Cabinet over this by now had he served earlier, and given “Tory splits” stories an extra lease of life.
“I’d also (respectfully - whilst not looking to start a punch up with
the one nation wing !) question what ‘respect’ is due to a man (of undoubted talent) who has chosen to sit on the back benches in a Heathlike funk since 97″
I think he took a sensible decision in doing that. Only Howard after 2001, of all the Majorite Cabinet ministers who took frontbench positions after 1997, really landed any punches. You need a hunger to land punches on the government to be a really good Opposition frontbencher, and Clarke’s too old and too senior to have a hunger for any other post than leader. Most impoortantly, he’d have fought the shift against the EU and the Euro in the Hague and IDS Show Cabinets tooth and nail. He’d probably have been driven out by the Shadow Cabinet over this by now had he served earlier, and given “Tory splits” stories an extra lease of life.
“I’d also (respectfully - whilst not looking to start a punch up with
the one nation wing !) question what ‘respect’ is due to a man (of undoubted talent) who has chosen to sit on the back benches in a Heathlike funk since 97″
I think he took a sensible decision in doing that. Only Howard after 2001, of all the Majorite Cabinet ministers who took frontbench positions after 1997, really landed any punches. You need a hunger to land punches on the government to be a really good Opposition frontbencher, and Clarke’s too old and too senior to have a hunger for any other post than leader. Most impoortantly, he’d have fought the shift against the EU and the Euro in the Hague and IDS Show Cabinets tooth and nail. He’d probably have been driven out by the Shadow Cabinet over this by now had he served earlier, and given “Tory splits” stories an extra lease of life.
Curse of the triple posts…
TB - I just don’t see the point in dwelling on the past. Their are people on all wings of the party who have been less than helpful over the last 8 years. It would be interesting to hear IDS views on David Davis for instance. The last three leaders have been from the right of the party and it has got us nowhere. In this day and age people have to feel good about voting for a centre-right politician. Its not enough to seem cruel but competent.
As I’ve said I am concerned about some of DD’s supporters. If Wat Tylers views are typical then we will be finished in parts of the UK. His refrences to ‘those coomunists in Scotland and Wales’ and ‘those communist wasters up North’ (on his ‘burning our money blog’) , do not fill me with confidence. And as someone who has given up a great deal of my own to try to get Tories elected north of the border his comments are frankly offensive.
Tory Boy,
Can you honestly not see that with David Davis as leader the Conservative Party is highly unlikely to win the next election?
I apologise for being forthright but frankly it needs saying; it’s people like yourself who would rather see a hard-right Tory party in opposition than a centre-right Tory party in Government that threaten the chances of the Tories ever getting into power again.
I just find it impossible to understand your mindset; you’d rather see a Labour government than a possible Ken Clarke Conservative government???
Sorry that should be ‘a bunch of communist wasters up north’.
23 Max,
I certainly don’t hold with such subjective insults to any region of our Nation.
Even though we might disagree, I genuinely respect you opinion.
14. Max, wasn’t your hero set to destroy out defence? It didn’t seem so (especially since I didn’t see the match!).
13. Mark, but NuCon will have to face NuNuLabour. Infact David Blunkett will run for the leadership. In a desperate attempt to stop him, the hard-left will nominate Glenda Jackson as their candidate. At the Autumn’s conference, Glenda will deliver an emotional, powerful speech talking about the true Labour values (naturally pre-war labour values). The Academy will give her another Oscar for her interpretation. However the speech is not successful between labour delegates and Blunkett will become new leader. He’ll repostionate the party on the right of BNP.
So NuCon will have to face on its right NuNuLab, BNP, UKIP (they’ll ask to leave the UN too) and NuVeritas (total members number:2). On the left there’ll be NuNuNuRespect (they’ll change their platform at every new war UK will begin) and the Greens (they’ll finally win Brighton Pavillon, but the constituency will be abolished becuase the total number of residents will go deeply down after the expulsion of every gay man from the country). The LibNuDem will be on the centre.
21. Communists in UK? Quel horreur! You’ve probably never seen a real communist.
22 Andrew, no offence taken.
Regarding :
Can you honestly not see that with David Davis as leader the Conservative Party is highly unlikely to win the next election?
No, I think the suggestion is defeatest.
If I can answer your next question this way I would say it doesn’t matter who governs the nation if they aren’t going to run it on Conservative principles.
Trying to run an economy based on state dependency ‘better’ than Labour simply doesn’t interest me, nor does cedeing all effective power to Brussels.
If we don’t offer hope and a viable alternative to what will be a desparate populus when the time comes, why on earth will they vote for us rather than anyone else (Particularly the LD’S?)
25 - Yeah he was outstanding! A draw against Italy is a very good result for Scotland. As for Communists, I think their is one Communist councillor in Britain up in Fife.
24 - Likewise TB. Its a tough decision, which frannkly I wish they would get over and done with!
“I think their is one Communist councillor in Britain up in Fife.”
West Fife was one of only two constituencies ever to elect a Communist MP, Willie Gallagher from 1935 and 1950. He had a “comrade” in Mile End (now part of BG&B) from 1945 to 1950.
No, Bluetowin, you´re wrong again!
The original “grandees” were Spanish - they were the “great men” of Spanish society (hence Sp. “grandes”, “great ones”). IIRC, they had the right to remain with their hats on in the presence of the sovereign, but otherwise it was merely a super-rank that they had - a bit like “magnates” used to be in English.
In the original version, they were the great landowners (hence wealthy, and hence powerful, with considerable conceit in their own excellence and merit. Consequently, they were hard to control (by the king) and an even greater problem for the rank-and-file citizen. They didn´t, of course, do anything useful, but greatly got in the way of change and progress - which is why Spain went into terminal decline for several centuries, despite her wealth.
So when we talk about “Tory grandees”, we are talking about people who are no earthly use whatever, who are out of touch with reality, who have inflated ideas about their own importance, and are pretty certainly out of touch with current needs, but with a strong hankering for the good old days when they were important.
In some of these respects, you are quite right, of course. Heseltine, Patten, Thatcher, Tebbit, Archer are all quite clearly Tory grandees - but then so are Ken Clarke, Rifkind, Portillo.
The only thing that distinguishes them from the run-of-the-mill Tory is that they once held important posts in the political world. Otherwise they are equally irrelevant, as I think you suggest.
27. Max. Glad, you’re satisfied with the result. Has Scotland any chance to reach the final stage?
Re Fife. Why do they have a communist councillor? What type of people lives there? It’s strange thing for Britain (I assume).
29. As recently as the 1995 local elections there were Communists on Fife Council and no Conservatives !
31 - Andrea - Not so strange - Nottingham had a communist councillor in the 1980’s - I voted for him - John Peck was his name - he held the balance of power iirc between 28 Labour & 28 Conservative ones - he changed to the Green Party on the fall of communism.He was a great chap,very popular.
Sorry to interrupt this Tory ‘love in’ but this post (no 1 in this thread deserves repeating)…
‘I am off to a meeting of the National Convention today, preceded by a regional officers meeting. Despite it being outrageous that they are being held on the same day as two of our nation’s football teams play a competitive match, I will at least be in a better position to take the mood of our part of the Constitutional College later this afternoon.
Comment by Andy — 3/9/2005 @ 8:13 am
Sorry Andy all four home nations were playing today. When the Tory party realises this it might start winning north of the border (again)
The Scotland on Sunday suggests that their will be polls out in the next few days showing that KC’s ratings have been boosted since he declared he would run for the leadership.
A thought crossed my mind this afternoon;in the event of Ken Clarke not winning the Tory leadership,after a third snub by his seemingly-kamiakaze like party,might he just be tempted to cross the fllor of the House of Commons and join the Labour Party-I’m a 34 year-old lifelong Labour supporter who admits to feeling ‘At least the guy is human’-he does espouse Heathite corporatism-I would not put it beyond the realms of fantasy that Ken Clarke might finally decide that the British Conservative Party are pervesely bent on self-destruction and make the ultimate gesture-personally,I’d say’Welcome on board,mate!’-any thoughts?
If there were going to be an election in a year’s time, KC would have been the man. He could certainly have reached parts of the electorate unmoved or repelled by Howard. But will that be the case in four or five years’ time? I rather doubt it.
29 - Was Shapurji Saklatvala not elected as the Communist member for
Battersea North between 1922-23 and 1924-29?
He was also the third ethnic minority MP after Dadabhai Naoroji
(Liberal, Finsbury - 1892-95) and Manchererjee Bhownaggree (Con,
Bethnal Green - 1895-06) and the last until 1987.
33 - Vino, from memory he won in one of the Bulwell seats at something
like his 28th attempt in the days when Nottingham had annual
elections.
Quite right Dean - I had forgotten about him. He was a Labour MP for the 1922-23 period, though.
Thanks Observer, I was unsure about his status at the 1923 GE. I think he was already a member of the Communist Party by 1923 but that Labour allowed him to stand on a Labour ticket. He lost the seat to the Liberals by 186 votes in 1923 but then came back in 1924 standing as a Communist.
30 john 13 I am afraid you have missed the key connection. My references are absolutely correct. Grandees were, and are, Spanish nobility and landowners but the political use of the term Grandee in England comes from the post Civil War period of political upheaval and innovation that lead to the dictatorial Cromwellian republic. The term was used about Cromwell and others who opposed the Levellers and the other extremists that developed mainly from the ‘Fifth’. It was intentionally abusive comparing the effete Spanish nobility with the Cromwellian ‘right wingers’. Those that were on the other side of the argument were the ‘Agitators’.
A brief perusal of any good history or basic encyclopaedia will confirm this.
Having studied this period of history for quite a number of years I am absolutely sure of my facts.
Thanks for the reference, Bluetowin. But I still think you are mistaken.
Surely the noble lords Heseltine, Patton and others are more like the Spanish grandee model - see the characteristics in the reference you kindly provided - and less like Cromwell, Ireton and Fairfax, who certainly were very much in power in 1649; also intelligent and principled.
Obviously, the Leveller use of the term “grandee” was derivative and relevant to the Parliamentary leaders in only a few of its aspects (and also intended to be abusive).
But then again, it may be that you see Heseltine, Patton, Tebbit & Co in a similar way.
Re - Communist MPs. The member for Mile End was Phil Piratin, who wrote a very readable political memoir. The Communist Party were miffed that he got in whilst their leader failed to win a seat in South Wales - winning the “wrong” seats - now which contemporary party does that remind me of?
Phil Piratin won Mile End in 1945 when Stepney returned 3 MPs. He had been returned as a councillor in for Spitalfields East in 1937 and was the sole oppositionmember on Stepney Council.Significantly in the comtemporary context, Spitalfields East now forms part of the Spitalfields and Banglatown ward - where Respect defeated Ken Livingstone in the Mayoral election.
Piratin was closely involved in the Stepney rents strikes of the 1930’s and joined the Communist Party after attending the infamous Olympia rally addressed by Mosley.
When he won Spitalfields East (then massively Jewish)Two of the Labour candidates were Jews, the third not. Three Ratepayers stood, by the names of Cohen, Feiner and Silverstein (apparantley all friends of Phil PIratin’s father). Silverstein polled fewer votes than either Cohen or Feiner and it was always said that this difference enabled Piratin to take the third seat off Labour.
In the war Piratin trained to join up but was stopped by Herbert Morrison and so he joined the civilian fire service. He lost ground locally when the Hitler/Stalin non aggression pact was operative but as total war and the blitz took place his local focus increased. he famously led a group of east enders to the Savoy Hotel and demanded to be admitted to the air raid shelters as facilities were so bad in Stepney.
The effect of the bombing was such that by 1945 the elctorates of the three Stepney seats was very small - Mile End having just 16,132 voters. He had a campaign manager of genius called Shapiro and the worked out the votes needed to win the Mile End seat off the Jewish Labour MP, Dan Frankel ( once the youngest ever Mayor of Stepney)
The count for all Stepney seats took place in “The People’s Palace”, Mile End Road and tere were decalerd together in alpahbetical order. A photograph was taken of Clement Attlee making his victory speech at Limehouse, with Phil Piratin standing behind his right shoulder about to claim victory in Mile End. Ths picture went around the world and of course Piratin was identified, causing J Edgar Hoover to have kittens, as Truman would be shortly telling thenew Prime Minister about the plans to bomb Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
In the 1945 lcal elections the Communists won 10 seats on Stepney Concil (it would have been 15 had they fough all seats in every ward they contested) In 1946 won the LCC seats for Mile End (Labour fielded Elsie Janner as candidate)
In Communist terms Piratin did not fit the scots/mining stereotype that the party had encouraged and they were amazed that Piratin won in London and Harry Pollitt lost Rhondda.
Attlee hated Communists and in advance of the 1949 local elections 30, 000 copies of a speech by Robert Mellish attacking communist influence in the docks strike were distributed in the dock araes of Stepney.
Piratin lost his seat on the council and when Stepney became one parliamentary seat in 1950 came in third behind Labour and the Conservative.
His plans to stand again were thwarted when he lost a libel case against the Chief of Police in Hackney and he was declared bankrupt.
Communist councillors continued in Stepney (from the St Mary’s ward - now Whitechapel which is Respect’s second best ward)and Tower Hamlets until 1971.
Incidentally the other authority in 1945 with Communist councillors was the City of Westminster, Covent Garden ward.
45 - Many thanks again Peter for a well written potted local history of Stepney , you really should write a book .
I think it would be fair to say that until the late 40’s Cold War started , particularly amongst the working class voters , the Communist party was thought of a respectable party to vote for and at local level had a number of leading members who fought hard for their often very poor constituents .
33. Vino, but their presence was limited. Here we still have plenty of them: I’ve 2 commies in my municipal council (one is serving in the Cabinet), 6 in the provincial council and 4 in the regional council.
45-”The count for all Stepney seats took place in “The People’s Palace” ”
We still have them (we call them People’s Houses, but I think it’s the same thing) in some places, especially in the old Communist strongholds (Tuscany and Umbria).
Mark, you are certainly correct about that, the Communist cucillors were known to be very hard working. It is also fair to say that, particularly under the leadership of Morry Davis, Stepney was both corrupt and incompetent. The provision of air raid shelters, for example, was lamentable within the Borough.
The remaining long term communists, who represented St Mary’s had connections in the “Tailor’s unions”. Their names were Monty Borman, Solly Kaye and Max Levitas. Max Levitas is certainly still alive - he was present at the last event held at Whitechapel Library before it was closed by the present council.
The People’s Palace is nothing like what the name suggests. It was opened by Queen Mary and is a magnificent marble clad hall which is part of Queen Mary’s College. It is frequently used as a grand setting for graduations.
The politics, particularly at a local level of the east end and Tower Hamlets is actually amongst the most interesting in London. The years of one party domination conceals a truly fascinating history.
Some interesting stories in today’s newspapers.
Blunkett and Brown are allegedly “in love” again and Blunkett will have a senior position in a Gordon’s cabinet.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2087-1764103,00.html
Clarke has no support between the new intake.
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/conservatives/story/0,9061,1562488,00.html
Many activists spoke out against the rules change at yesterday’s meeting
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2087-1763890,00.html
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/article310193.ece
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2005/09/04/ntory04.xml&sSheet=/news/2005/09/04/ixnewstop.html
Lord Tebbit said Clarke is too lazy to run an effective leadership, while Alan Duncan said that Cameron should leave the race (” think Cameron can now go away”)
48. Re People’s Palace
It’s a misleading name. I thought it was a completely different thing.
The spam filter has just blocked me a post about and I couldn’t find the blocked word
50 - if you have more than three links in a post, the spam filter blocks it.
51. Oh, I didn’t know it. Thanks Book Value.
I thought it blocked it because of the suggestion that Blunkett and Brown are “in love”
Duncan’s quote he’s pretty rude.
Have you got a link to the Duncan quote?
BV: From the ST article:
“Alan Duncan, the former minister [er, not actually correct - JO]who quit the leadership race in July, said: “Clarke entering is the death knell for Cameron. We are coming to the end game here with Clarke versus Davis.
“Cameron can go away. His comments last week about quality of life just seem so trite. He sounds like a Central Office researcher. I think people will say, ‘Look, nice try, bit cheeky, you’ve over-reached yourself. Now go away and leave it to the big boys’.”
Meoowww!! BTW - fantastic job you’ve done as the bp.com ringmaster of some very big beasts and not an inconsiderable number of Grandees to boot. Oh yes…
53. It’s in “The Times article” linked in my previous post (at the end). It’s nothing sensational,but I find pretty rude to say to Cameron “I think Cameron can now go away”. It could have been more diplomatic.
54 - many thanks, John. I’ll mention the Duncan quote in my final article, coming up in an hour or so…
55 - thanks Andrea.
FWIW (not a lot - ed
), this Tory trollop has re-re-ratted back to the Rushcliffe Ruffian. All previous postings to the contrary are, in Ron Ziegler’s immortal words, herewith deemed “inoperative”.
54. The funny thing is that the same quote could be used to describe Duncan.
59 - to be fair, I think Alan Duncan probably would apply it to himself: he has withdrawn, after all.
Not sure if this has already been mentioned but, if not, a quick reminder for the saddos amongst us that BBC Parliament will be showing the 1987 Election Coverage tomorrow from 9am.
58. John O, your previous postings will come back to hunt you…..
60. well, probably, but AD sometimes has strange reactions. So you never know with him. If someone will say those things to him, I could picture him screaming “tory taliban”. I’ve the impression that he has too high opinion of himself.
Who will he back now? Clarke or Davis?
“Now go away and leave it to the big boys”
And coming from Alan Duncan…
63. Sophia, it depends on what Hunky Dunky is thinking about when he talks about “big” boys
Many thanks for the description of “grandees” - I found them funny, cutting and more often than not just what I thought about them!
I am still not sure on Ken Clarke’s appeal, but I read that another 10 MPs have declared support for Davis from the new intake, bringing his support to around 80-90 — if that happens he will crush the opponents and at least then he can claim to have real support in the party.
My only big concern with Davies at the moment is the people around him. When the Daily Mail say he is surrounded by some dubious characters I worry! But I think we have long enough before another General Election to shape public opinion of people like Basher.
I wish if Clarke loses he will come and be Shadow Chancellor - sadly I think he will go away and sulk.
65.”When the Daily Mail say he is surrounded by some dubious characters I worry! ”
A dubious character for the Daily Mail is probably a respectable man for the rest of the country! If someone will have a dinner with Cherie Blair, the Daily Mail will write that he’s surrounded by dubious characters.
58 - John O - I am coming around to the conclusion that you have, my old friend. My first sympathies still lie with Cameron, but the game seems to be moving away from him. If it becomes clear that he has no realistic chance of winning, I shall support Kenneth Clarke against David Davis.
Glad you posted when you did. I have been wondering for some days now what your thinking was considering new developments, and my flight to Edinburgh leaves in a few hours….
Regardless of the electoral system we finish with, (and we may well fight the election under the current system), I don’t think that KC has a chance. I think that KC will get next to no support from the new MPs, and some of his supporters from last time have drifted away.
68 - That may well be, Sean. KC hasn’t made any attempt to cultivate any of the new intake yet, and there is still time to do that before November, and as far as old support drifting away - people do change their minds, you know. I supported KC in 2001, drifted to Cameron, but if he is eliminated, then KC gets me back. Of course, I’m only a rank and file member, but every vote will count if the old rules are kept.
I will certainly fall in line behind Davis if he should win, and I will work as hard for the Conservative Party under his leadership as I have under every leader, but I have considerable doubts about his electoral appeal and his ability to move the party forward.
Pardon all the ‘I’s there… puts me in mind of something my mother used to chide me for, but I can’t think of a more succinct way of putting it.
NZ:
I have had my simulated book active on the NZ general election since 25 July. Also an index point to other books operating on the NZ election. Have been fairly steady and can react sooner to new poll data etc. than other books. Have historic data comparison to Centrebet as well - which stands up pretty well.
Link to me if you wish.
Thanks,
Tim Selwyn
http://www.tumeke.blogspot.com
Dan at 34. Maybe so, but in the context of this meeting, the Conservative Party has seperate organisations in Scotland and Northern Ireland, so only the Wales and England teams would have affected turnout. And even so, Scotland were playing after the meeting was due to finish.
71. Andy, what were your impressions from the meeting? Have the newspapers reported correctly the mood of members or have they exagerated?
Very cool template. I love the content of this page. Hopefully you keep the site going.Much appreciated :0).