Could Charles Clarke upset the Gordon Brown succession?
September 9th, 2005
“Home Secretary planning to run for the leadership” - Independent
While all the UK political focus has been on the Tory leadership a feature by John Rentoul in the Independent today speculates that Gordon Brown might not have the easy ride to 10 Downing Street that most commentators have been predicting. In it he states Charles Clarke is planning to run for the Labour leadership when Tony Blair steps aside before the next General Election.
Rentoul contrasts Gordon Brown’s relative lack of visibility since the election with Charles Clarke who seems to be making new headlines day after day. He observes …Suddenly, Clarke - who intends to contest the Labour leadership when Blair goes - seems a credible challenger to Brown. No one else seems likely even to gather the necessary number of nominations (45) from Labour MPs (the other signal fact about the post-election reshuffle being the fact that John Reid is not Foreign Secretary). Brown is still a long way ahead, of course. But over the past three months the shape of the leadership contests in both main parties, neither of which has yet begun, has been transformed. It is now quite possible that the voters could face the choice at the next election of Clarke - or Clarke.
The number of MP nominations required certainly restricts the possibility of more than one or two people being able to put their hat into the ring. A big element, as well, is when this will happen. We’ve argued here before that the longer that Blair stays the more problems that Brown might face. His dour style has not made him universally popular at Westminster and a popular gag, recounted by Simon Hoggart in this review of a biography on the Chancellor, is that “Brown can brighten up a room just by leaving it”.
Brown also has a problem in that his main appeal to some segments of the party is that he is not Tony Blair. Once the Prime Minister has moved on that selling point disappears.
From a betting standpoint there are few options at the moment. Betfair have an exchange market but as of the time of writing there was almost nothing available on Clarke who has attracted the grand total of £114 in matched bets. With this sort of betting you are restricted to what other punters are prepared to offer
The Gordon Brown price has continued to ease from the 0.24/1 in June to the current 0.37/1. Even if you are convinced that the Chancellor will do it there is little point locking up your money for maybe 2-3 years for that rate of return.
Hopefully the latest speculation will bring in more punters prepared to lay Charles Clarke. We wonder whether the price might settle below the current 7/1.
Sorry about the site problems earlier today. We were subject to a hacking attack overnight which brought the site down for many hours. My son, Robert, who handles the technical side, is on holiday in Sardinia and we managed to get things back up again thanks to the help of Philip Grant (Book Value) who acted recently as guest editor.
Thanks to Philip for all his help.
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I’m glad to see that classic picture make a reappearance
Apart from the fact that I didn’t vote for him, Charles Clarke is my local MP and in my view a very fine politican. Each time I have met him he has impressed me with a certain level of intellect and common sense. I would strongly support Clarke over Brown any day.
However, would Labour let an MP with a 3,500 majority be PM?
Now David Cameron, either of these two will do the job, just get on with it and do the decent thing !
BTW John Rentoul must be so utterly bored by the so far 100 day Tory leadership marathon , he thought he brighten up a dull political day with yet another “Charles Clarke Leadership Bid” story.
Our Ken on Dr Fox’s leadership bid :
“I don’t think it’ll have much impact on me …..”
Ouch !!!!
Aren’t there remours about Blair being unhappy by Clarke’s performance as Home Secretary?
How is Clarke’s relationship with trade unions?
The high number of nominations required will probably mean that no candidate from the left of the party will stand.
2 - A small majority is no handicap for any party leader as it always seems to be 5,000 or so votes to their constituency total whichever of the 3 main parties it is .
4 - “Aren’t there remours about Blair being unhappy by Clarke’s performance as Home Secretary?”
Apparently Blair thinks Clarke is too liberal. Which is news to liberals.
7 - “Hopefully the latest speculation will bring in more punters prepared to lay Charles Clarke.”
I suppose someone has to
Yesterday’s byelections had a good Labour hold in Birmingham Tyburn and a very good Lib Dem gain from Conservatives in Darlington Hurworth . I do not know the results from North Norfolk Chaucer or Rhondda Mountain Ash West ( some bitter exchanges apparently between Plaid and the Lib Dems ) .
6. My spelling is becoming worse! remours: the E isn’t even near the U on the keyboard!
I think he allegedly thinks he’s too soft too.
In the last Populus poll, Blair’s ratings over his handling of the bombings weren’t very good. Considering that Clarke as Home Secretary is directly involved in those issues, I could suppose that his performance isn’t critically acclaimed.
Both the Conservatives and Labour gained from former BNP voters in Tyburn, and both parties saw a big increase in their vote share.
Labour won a seat in Canvey Island from the Conservatives, due to the intervention of an independent who nearly gained the seat. The Conservatives won a seat from an Independent in Allerdale.
Labour held seats in Rhondda and East Staffs. The Lib Dems held Chaucer with a slight swing from May 2003.
Why is it that the first thing one thinks of when seeing that photo is that that picture would be so much better with the barrel of the guns one in each of the famous ears?
10. A swing for the Libdems or against them in Chaucer?
10 - Hi Sean , Do you know who was 2nd in Rhondda . Plaid and the Lib Dems seemed to ignore the fact that it was a Labour seat and attacked each other quite vigourously .
12 - to the Lib Dems.
14. Thanks. North Norfolk isn’t giving good results to the tories in recent times.
In N. Norfolk, the Lib Dem vote share rose by 6%, and the Conservative vote share fell by 1%.
In Rhondda, Plaid took 41% of the vote, compared to 4% for the Lib Dems
16. So there was a swing from Lab to PC in Rhonda, right?
Yes, about 5%.
10, a good result for Labour in Canvey (at last). Labour got three times more votes than the Tories. The amusing ‘Canvey Independence Party’ normally does more damage to Labour than the Tories.
Haven’t been on this site in a while. Any theories as to why Brown has been so invisible ever since 7/7? As for the succession to Tony, roll up the scraps of envelope- they won’t be wanted these three years. Plenty of botched reshuffles to go before then.
Test
Any theories as to why Brown’s been so invisible this summer?
20 - England 373, Australia 112-0, since you ask
22. Does that mean England won?
I don’t see a Clarke run, of course it is the PM’s interest to maintin at least the illusion of an uncertain succession…
45 nominations aren’t that many (1/7 of the PLP) anyone without that number shouldn’t really be in the race. I think the Labour Left will easily get that number of nominations and run Alan Simpson (the campaing group itself is over 30 the other 10 shouldn’t be too hard to get).
That will be Brown’s only opposition and he will get 70-80% of the elctoral college if not more.
The interesting race at the moment is for deputy leader (also elected by the party) which is very open.
23 - not yet. I’d say Australia marginally have the advantage right now but it’s still a bit early to tell.
23 - Unfortunately not Andrea. Still a long way to go but you can’t help feeling that Shane Warne could decide it all.
24. “I think the Labour Left will easily get that number of nominations and run Alan Simpson (the campaing group itself is over 30 the other 10 shouldn’t be too hard to get).”
The Campaign Group has only 25 MPs
http://www.poptel.org.uk/scgn/mps/main.html
I can’t see many MPs outside the Campaign Group supporting Simpson over Brown.
25-26. oh. it’s too difficult for me to understand!
bv Australia marginally ahead?
That assumes England are like the LDs and ‘winning here’….
21. Missionary work in Africa
27 Andrea, Cricket’s simple to understand:
Just remember your googlies, chinamen, silly mid-off, bouncers, leg before wickets, slips and reverse swing !! ….. There !
I certainly hope that Clark takes on Brown for the leadership, I wish him all the best. As a Liberal Democrat it would be considerably better on past record to take on Clark’s Labour than Brown’s Labour. That said I’m sure Brown is soiled enough for the Lib Dem vote to hold up against him as well. We always take a dip after general elections when we have to fight for media coverage as the press seem to ignore us.
In the words of Cpl. Jones “Don’t Panic” and “they don’t like it up ‘em.”
15. Labour took North Norfolk in 1955 while Moss Side and Liverpool Toxteth were Tory seats.
Labour used to be very strong in rural East Anglia.
31 - It would also provide a second chance to try out our decapitation strategy in Norwich South having used it to such impressive effect in Folkstone. Thought I would wheel that one out before a Tory contributor used it.
32 - I think they had it until as late as 1970 with a big NFU figure. The demographics have changed a lot since then, ditto Moss Side and Toxteth. They would have won it in 1997, however, on a national average swing.
31. “That said I’m sure Brown is soiled enough for the Lib Dem vote to hold up against him as well”
Regarding your gains from Labour this year,I think that the most vulnerable is Manchester Withington. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’ll swing back to Labour, but considering we’re talking about the Libdems everything could happen from a Labour gain to a 15% Libdem majority!
Rochdale is a super-marginal too, but considering that it has Libdem traditions, I would say that Withington is more vulnerable than Rochdale.
I’m pretty confident in Lynne Featherstone’s campaign skills, so I don’t see at the moment Horney coming back to Labour.
In the two Scottish gains the Libdems already have a decent majority.
Falmouth and Caborne will be splitted, while I haven’t still understood the boundary changes in Yardley.
Cambridge, Leeds North West, Cardiff Central and Bristol West are all seats with a big students population and students seats could more volatile than others. In Cambridge and CC the Libdem majority should be enough to avoid any surprise.
In Leeds North West they should pay more attention (always assuming Blair won’t disappoint students even more).
Now I’m ready for Libdems posters to kill me!
I always support the baldie and CC has less hair than GB.
Has anyone got an update on the German and New Zealand campaign?
Cheers.
36 - but Baldie, do you reckon GB’s is all his own?
37. New Zealand new poll put Labout and National more or less at the same level.
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen new poll (the firt one after the debate for them) in Germany gave a picture similar to the one givern by yesterday’s polls.
German pollsters are all giving similar pictures, while the New Zealand polls seem a rollercoaster.
North Norfolk: I once went and interviewed Bert Hazell, who was the last Labour MP for the constituency (1964-70) - a marvellous character. There was really extreme and relentless poverty in some of the Norfolk agricultural villages within living memory - people had to save a lot of their pay to buy boots so they could work again next year, there was frequent flooding in the villages. Labour first won the seat in 1922 and did so except in 1931 and 1935 until they lost it in 1970. Part of the reason was the growth of seaside retirement development along the long coast. Then the villages themselves changed, as agriculture mechanised.
The Labour vote was 19% even in 1983. Even as recently as 1997 there were inland rural Labour wards (such as the very rustic sounding Erpingham and Melton Constable) - very unusually Labour’s best areas were the least urbanised. But I think as the last people who remember the old days die off, the tradition has died too. A correction - it wasn’t the NFU (the bosses’ organisation in farming terms) but the NUAW - which became part of the T&GWU. The very success of the NUAW created the conditions for Labour’s hold to loosen.
Anyway - Norwich South. I would have thought it was risky to have the leader in such a marginal seat. Leaders don’t automatically benefit from their status - Thatcher’s results in Finchley were pretty indifferent. It probably helps if the constituency is pretty self-contained and demographically stable, too, which Norwich South is not, and 37.7% is a much lower share of the vote than leaders normally defend. It should be holdable, but Labour would probably find themselves committing massive resources to doing so, to the detriment of campaigns elsewhere.
39. Thanks. Looks as though Schroder is riding a real surge if all of the polling firms have picked up on it. I wonder if he could actually win now?
I think New Zealand is going to be close between Clark and Brash. It will prob come down to which minor parties perform better and which of the big 2 they are disposed to support.
41. I really doubt Schroeder could win. I think it’ll be close between an absolure majority for CDU/CSU+FDP or big coalition situation.
I agree that in New Zealand it will be closed. In Norway it will be closed too. The latest polls are showing the centre-right marginally leading the centre-left.
Yesterday’s btyelection result, Castle Pt DC, first Labour win on that council since 2003:
Labour has taken the Canvey North seat in the by-election of September 8.
The election was called following the resignation of Conservative councillor Matthew Howard.
Turn-out was 16.6 per cent
Results
Mark Reilly (Lab) 399
Peter Greig (Canvey Ind) 315
Heather Searle (Con) 131
Barry Newman (Lib) 27″
Sean Fear @ 10 - the Labour gain in Castle Point was in a ward that was 3 Lab cllrs in 1995 and 1999, 3 Tories in 2003 then in 2004 only one seat was up and the Canvey Independents won it.
I joined the local Conservative club last night . Signed our Bar Billiard team to play forthcoming season in Worthing at the Broadwater club . Found out that the full name is Broadwater Working Men’s Conservative club . Was assured though that whilst there were plenty of working men and women as members Conservatives were not that common .
16 - Strange that Plaid vote so hard against the Lib Dems in Rhondda . Perhaps they were worried that the first time intervention was going to cost them lots of votes . I believe the winning Labour candidate is 82 . The Lib Dem gain in Darlington was a good result in a seat not fought in 2003 . The Labour vote fell to only 45 votes .
The Lib Dem gain in Darlington BC is actually in Tony Blair’s constituency. Time for the stressed-out narcissist to give way to the boring Scotsman before the voters turn on him?
45.”Strange that Plaid vote so hard against the Lib Dems in Rhondda . Perhaps they were worried that the first time intervention was going to cost them lots of votes ”
or maybe there are many more Plaid voters than Libdem ones in Mountain Ash West.
35 - I think Rochdale will always be marginal between Lib Dem and Labour . I also fancy Manchester Gorton to follow Withington into the Lib Dem camp next time . The Yardley boundaries are still provisional revised so could change again . All 6 new Cornwall seats look to favour the Lib Dems .
47 - My sentence should have said fought so hard . Yes there are many more Plaid voters in this ward which Plaid have been fighting for a long time . It was the first time the Lib Dems had fought the seat for many years . I would have thought if Plaid had fought Labour with as much vigour as the Lib Dems they would have had a chance of winning the seat .
39 and 41 - should your German be up to the task, have a go at the Wahl-o-mat on Stern’s site to help you decide who you would vote for. A pointless Friday afternoon thing to do if ever there was one.
48. “also fancy Manchester Gorton to follow Withington into the Lib Dem camp next time”
If Gerald Kaufman will retire, maybe.
Manchester Gorton is another seat with lots of students (the 5th with the largest student population), so it could produce strange results.
I’m sure that next time Labour will pay more attention to the Libdems.
Am I right in thinking that Falmouth and Camborne will be splitted in two seats: a Libdems/Lab seat and a Libdems/Con seat?
50. Sadly my German is not good: to be honest it’s pretty nonexistence at the moment (I’m actually forgetting what I’ve learned at school).
I made one of those tests to see what I should have voted in UK and the answer was Libdem followed by the Green Party.
Re. 40, Lewis, didn’t Edward Heath come close to losing his own seat to Labour in the two 1974 elections?
I detect very little enthusiasm for Clarke as leader even among my more Blairite comrades - certainly at Conference last year, they couldn’t even be bothered to go and hear his speech, largely on account of what they cruelly (if accurately) described as his droning, monotonous voice.
It could be worse for Clarke in the marginality stakes - if he’d come first, not second, in the selection to be Labour’s PPC for Staffs. Moorlands in 95, he’d now be up against (after the boundary changes we’ve discussed previously) an inbuilt Tory majority of 3,300.
Richard [53]: I think it was in 1966 when Heath’s majority dropped below 2,000.
Sorry about the site problems earlier today. We were subject to a hacking attack overnight which brought the site down for many hours. My son, Robert, who handles the technical side, is on holiday in Sardinia and we managed to get things back up again thanks to the help of Philip Grant (Book Value) who acted recently as guest editor.
Thanks to Philip for all his help.
51 - The new Truro and Falmouth seat looks very safe for Lib Dems . The Camborne and Redruth seat looks Lib Dem / Labour but Lib Dems have a reasonable edge . The new St Austell and Newquay also looks a good Lib Dem margin over Conservatives .
56. What do you mean for “reasonable edge” ? More than 10%?
Do you think Julia Goldswhorty should go after the easiest seats or for the more marginal one? I would try to convince her to got for the Camborne and Redruth seat.
57.”Do you think Julia Goldswhorty…”
naturally I’m talking about Julia Goldsworthy!
55 - You’re welcome. I should point out that I merely followed Robert’s instructions to restore the site.
57 - It’s an interesting question. It might depend on the relative squeezability of the Tory vote in C&R versus the Labour vote in T&F - which will depend on the political situation in 2009/10, voters’ calculations about what happens in a hung parliament etc. IIRC Julia is from Camborne rather than Falmouth so that may influence her choice.
59- How much in advance will she have to choose? Considering how important candidates are for the Libdems, I suppose that the party will want the new candidate for the other seat selected well in advance. She could be forced to choose a couple of years before the actual election and in two years everything could happen (the tories could change another leader!).
I think James is more informed about the area than us (I think he mentioned he lived there when we were talking about Seb Coe). He could give us some more info.
There is an interesting article in Today’s Spectator (in fact there are several; a rarity) about Ken Clarke’s campaign and Westminster Conservatives. The main interest is not in the arguments, which we’ve heard and read many times, but in the fact that it appears to have been written by Jack W under the pseudonym ‘Peter Oborne’ — an obvious anagram. It’s all there: the detachment, the anecdotes, the references to Scotland and shooting, the attitude… If you didn’t write it, Jack, think of the money you could be making!
49 Mark…there is a lot of bitterness between Plaid and LDs in Rhondda with the LDs following their normal practice in wales of heavy attacks on Plaid whilst ignoring Labour…I suspect our people got drawn into a slanging match with Lds out of fear that they would nick enough votes to let their Labour buddies win…..still a swing to Plaid is positive given that our opponents reckon we have collapsed utterly etc…:)
On the point about student seats and Lib dem labour marginals…the problem for the Lds is if Labour hold the next GE outside of term time……
On the subject of this thread, I should have thought Charles Clarke’s persona rather too similar to Gordon Brown’s to make him an attractive alternative leader: not telegenic, not a born orator or wit, not well-known for smiling and bonhomie, no flair for touchy-feely stuff, etc. Even in his student days Clarke wasn’t counted the life and soul of the party (BB&B type), but he had (and presumably still has) one more common point with Brown: he was thought not only industrious but exceptionally intelligent.
I chortled at your comment on my test post, BV- I’d just lost a long-ish post into the void. Looks like the weather may still prevent the Aussies from keeping the box of burned bits, but Shane Warne has been doing his best all series to keep those ashes - with not much help from anyone else.
It’s a game that really sums up the English, Andrea- you battle and battle for five days in the hope of a really exciting draw.
What I wanted to say in my long post was that Fungus the Bogeyman and Gordon This is my own hair I just keep forgetting to shampoo it needn’t worry- backs of envelopes will not be needed these three and half years…
65 - I’ve rescued one of your posts from the spam filter, Sara, but I think the long one must have been lost forever.
64 - Have to say that I was pleased when the Aussies ran away scared of the dark… (Ok, so having tickets for the Monday may be influencing me slightly here). It’s really funny trying to explain the game to my (American educated) Lebanese boss - quotes such as “How many pitchers are you allowed” keep coming my way
63 - If you look at the discussion forum on the local byelection topic on the local website http://www.aberdareonline.co.uk , it is pretty clear that the feud is quite personal and as you say Plaid are following their normal practice of ignoring Labour and attacking the Lib Dems ( or something similar LOL )
@ 63: Yes, Clarke is a rotten ‘anyone but Gordon’ candidate, for the reasons you mention- has the same drawbacks only more so (the content of GB’s speeches can be boring but CC’s whole voice is boring; CC is much uglier than GB; GB’s form may be looking under threat but CC has no real form at all), and no more advantages (yes, he isn’t Scottish, but he’s a toff).
Do you really think Ken Clarke can win it, after all the Tories on this site have said? Surely there’s some tactical voting going on to elbow out DC? He would, I think, be quite good for Brown, because they’re both from the same pre-Bambi world- he might hasten Blair’s departure, though, which would be a good spectacle. After all, Blair has got away with things a competent leader of the opposition should never have allowed.
Julia G lives between Camborne and Redruth so I would be very surprised if she did not contest that one… and win. I think Matthew Taylor will fight St Austell though that is a pure guess based on where his HQ is leaving Truro and Falmouth to be contested by an ambitious young Cornish LD.
65.”It’s a game that really sums up the English, Andrea- you battle and battle for five days in the hope of a really exciting draw.”
Will the match last for 5 days?
68. Mark, it’s not true that Plaid always ignores Labour. Infact in 2001 Leanne Wood was sure to win Rhondda with 52% of the votes.
Labour and SNP will choose tonight their candidate for Glasgow Cathcart (the tories will select on Monday).
I am sure Blair will already have an army of crack toadies going through Ken Clarke’s ministerial record with a fine tooth comb for juicy bits to use at PMQs.
Thanks for rescuing the comment, book value- the longer one said pretty much the same only more long-windedly.
But I’m almost beginning to hope Ken can win it- it would be great to have some real gloves-off debate in the House again, by people who actually weigh their words and speak in complete sentences.
71 - My comment was a little tongue in cheek response to your standard it is always the nasty Lib Dem’s fault . Do not understand your reference to 2001 . Leanne Wood’s vote was 7,183 at the GE 21% AND EVEN AT THE
oops and even at the Welsh Assembly elections in 2003 only 27% .
74. Mark, my comment was ironic too. It was based on Leanne Wood’s claim made during the 2001 campaign that she was going to defeat Chris Bryant with 53% of the votes
http://news.bbc.co.uk/vote2001/hi/english/wales/newsid_1377000/1377127.stm
(look under the photo of ballot papers)
Book Value, talking about Falmouth, I’ve a Candy Atherton photo for you.
http://www.candyatherton.labour.co.uk/images/4044/PICT8914.JPG
(Ben Bradshaw looks particularly disgusted).
76 - Got it now Andrea - Nothing wrong anyway with Plaid claims that they are winning here and only they can beat Labour . Need some lessons from Lib Dems in barcharts though - LOL
76 - lovely.
62 pobedonoscev. I confess ……… the last time I saw Peter Oborne was not in the shaving mirror this morning ! but actually a few weeks ago. The plot thickens !!
I couldn’t possibly survive on the meagre pittance that journalists earn, even one as weighty as Peter. How could I possibly pay my vintner, let alone the essential accoutrements of my consort
78. They’re eating oysters.
I noticed that Keith Bradley still have John Leech’s phone number on his website: http://www.keithbradley.org.uk/content.php
I like Clark… I do, he’s a nice guy and takes a lot of flak for doing what IMHO is all in all a good job.
But the idea that someone with his record and his politics beats Brown for the Labour Leadership is Barmy.
You’ve tried to argue this one before Mike, and as much respect as I have for you and your “gut” in almost all maters political, your dead wrong on this one…
[b]Clark has 0 chance of winning the Labour leadership.[/b]
The suggestion that Brown’s appeal within the party is based purely on his “not being Blair” comes purely from a very lazy interpretation from the press… Brown is [u]loved[/u] within the party, I’d say that 55-60% are sold on him hook line and sinker, is it totally justified? No. But Brown has the Unions sewn up 100%, his support amongst the party grassroots is both wide and deep, and within the PLP he can count on at least 50% of MPs and an even larger number of MEPs and other Party elected officials.
The next Labour leader, baring Brown being caught eating the babies in the intensive care wing at great allman street, will be Gordon Brown, an avowed Blairite like Clark doesn’t stand a chance!
Clark would not get 1, not 1! Union endorsement he would be able to count on very few MPs, MEPs and next to zero support amongst the CLPs and broader membership his campaign would be over before it began… and were Reid to also run, I think you’d be lucky to see 20 or more MPs backing either.
This has been argued before and the answer is the same Clark, Milburn and Reid don’t have a hope in hell of the Labour leadership… the only conceivable candidate who would have a chance where it not for Brown, would be perhaps Benn, Johnson or maybe, just maybe Hain or Hewitt… and that’s it, the press remains very lazy if it thinks that Clark has a chance, ditto Reid or Milburn.
81. “This has been argued before and the answer is the same Clark, Milburn and Reid don’t have a hope in hell of the Labour leadership… the only conceivable candidate who would have a chance where it not for Brown, would be perhaps Benn, Johnson or maybe, just maybe Hain or Hewitt… ”
Ben, what about Blunkett? Too controversial?
Ben [81] - don’t the TUs have to ballot their members, who don’t always agree with the leadership?
(A bit like Tory activists and members…)
Agree with Ben and Andrea @ 81 & 82 - had to double check the date !
Not a prayer surely, he’s like a throwback to the incompetent bumblers of the Major administration .. surely his prospects of reaching the pinacle are zero ?
He’s remains right up there with Frank Dobson (and Prescott though of course he remains a tactically placed necessity) as something of a joke and a strong contender for one of our least convincing Ministers of all time.
Hope to God I’m wrong though, us and the Lib Dems will fill our boots !
Back to the Amber Nectar - regards all round
Charlie Gordon has been selected as the Labour candidate for the Glasgow Cathcart by-election.
SNP selected Maire Whitehead.
Scottish Socialist Party’s candidate is Ronnie Stevenson. The tories will select on Monday.
Charles Clarke? Well all we need now is a LibDem Clarke as a candidate to replace Charlie. We can then have a choice between three Nobby Clarkes in 2009.
71 - Yes, a cricket test match lasts 5 days if necessary. Sometimes it isn’t long enough so if neither team has won after 5 days they call it a draw and everybody goes home. This isn’t uncommon although up to a few years ago it happened in nearly every match. This may surprise you until you understand that the game stops for lunch and tea every day. It stops if it rains and remains stopped until the ground had dried out. They even stop for ‘bad light’ as they did today when the sun went behind a few clouds.
LT [86] - and didn’t I read somewhere that the Chinese have a plan to produce the best cricket team in the world by 2035 or some such date?
86. Sadly there aren’t Libdem MPs called Clarke.
The “Howarth” surname covers all the three main parties. The “Smith” surname too.
I’ve still to understand cricket! It could be a difficult task for me.
87. If they said it, bet that they’ll be able to achieve it.
81 - erm, Patricia Hewitt? Really?
54: Heath’ss majorities in 1974 were, 9,698 (Feb) and 7,543 (Oct)
He won his orignal seat of Bexley in 1950 with a majority of 133, this inceased to 8, 633 in 1959. In 1966 (with a very strong Labour campaign, shades of decapitation)it dropped to 2,333.
In 1974 he contested a new seat of Sidcup which only had one ward from his old seat of Bexley. In the process he ousted the popular Dame Patricia Hornsby Smith who represented most of Sidcup. She went on to fight Aldridge Brownhills (and lose) and was then quietly dispatched to the Lords.
If Charles duffer Clark is being considered an option for PM, that can only mean that the West Lothian Question is a problem, although
they have been denying it for years.
Sky News paper review:
Telegraph front page lead story says Clarke secures support of Tory faithful. Presenter reading it out referred to the members but said nothing more.
Looks like it’s probably a survey of Party members.
Nothing yet on Telegraph website.
Clarke price on Betfair has tightened to just 2.75-1.
Yesterday I forecast that Clarke may do well among members - see post 39 on the Cameron thread!
82 – Andrea
Blunckett’s time as Home Sectary pretty much saw him burn his bridges with the party membership though not its base (important distinction) I’m afraid, he wouldn’t be a no-hoper candidate like Clark-Reid-Milburn but its unlikely he’d stand any chance, especially against Brown.
83 – Innocent Abroad
When was the last time you spoke to local trades union activist about the leadership of the labour party?
Brown certainly has the leadership of most of the unions very much on side, admittedly there will not be universal support from the trades union grassroots for Brown but he’d got the majority of support there, and that’s what counts.
I’d also add that those trades unionist who do not favour Brown, would never in a million years favour Clark instead, indeed if they where to not want Brown you would probably find they where more supportive of one of the challengers from the soft left such as Hain or the hard left such as Simpson… certainly not one so closely tied to the current PM and his polices as Clark.
84 – Tory Boy.
As you agree with me and Andrea I in turn agree with you… and we’ve all come full circle
Clark as leader, which as I’ve already argued would not happen, gives you an unsympatric leader with little support from the party base and little compensating appeal to the wider electorate… so, unlike Brown, he doesn’t enjoy solid support from the party’s membership and base of support, nor does he sooth the horses when it comes it middle England.
In short, those attempting to assail Labour from its left (LibDems) and from its right (Tories) would both be very happy with a Clark leadership… thankfully the man would not have a hope.
89 – Stephen Tall
Hewitt’s a long shot but she’s got a far greater chance than Clark ever would, she’s well liked within the party, in spit, or who knows, because of her primary school teacher style of oratory
Personally I would expect her to be one of the top contenders for the deputy leadership, after Blair’s departure and it would be an interesting combo Brown/Hewitt.
In the end there really is going to be no viable challenger to Brown for the leadership, the race will be contested it won’t be a coronation but even where Brown’s standing to take a knock between now and the leadership election, as I’ve said, it would have to be a huge hit to derail what looks for all the world like a lock on the leadership (be that for good or ill)… the competitive race will be for the deputy post, though I’d expect a challenger from the hard left to go up against Brown for sure, if things aren’t too rosy then a candidate like Hain or Johnson could emerge from the “soft left” but even then I think it would be only the die hard anti-Brown Blair loyalists who would try and organise from the party’s right to put forward someone such as Reid or Clark and in the end I doubt they’d be able to cobble together the necessarily support within the PLP let alone the unions and membership.
91 – gadgie
The Clark story is a rehash of idle speculation in the silly season, Clark has let it be known that he’d like to be leader but there is no base of support for him within the parliamentary party, let alone the wider movement… certainly the issue of Brown’s origins has not figured at all in all the discussion of the leadership I have overheard or been party to, I’m afraid it’s nothing more than a fantasy indulged in primarily by Tories who see it some how as a flag stone on the gravelled drive way to power.
Where Brown’s Scottish roots to be an issue you can bet that Clark would not be the man to be getting the attention.
93. If the hard-left will present a candidate, is a sure thing that they will choose Alan Simpson as their candidate or could they try with someone else (it’ll probably make no difference in their result anyway)? John McDonnell, Bob Marshall Andrews or Diane Abbott (only becuase she probably is the most famous between them thanks to her TV appearances)?
if you think that ‘nasty party’ comment was trashing your own brand, read this in the independent. http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/article311554.ece
Some quick quotes:
If the Conservative Party were a multinational company, it would be investigated for its equal opportunities policies. Looking at its elected representatives, you will see a predominantly white, male party.”
She will ridicule the party for “rejoicing that we have elected a single black MP”.
“It will take the Conservative Party 400 years to achieve the equal representation of women within its ranks”
Daily Telegraph YouGov poll of Tory party members:
Clarke 33%
Davis 28%
Cameron 17%
Fox 8%
Rifkind 4%
However in a run-off between Clarke and Davis the poll shows:
Davis 48%
Clarke 45%
Also members support the rule change giving the vote back to MPs by 63% to 31%.
71 & 86 - Andrea, in the late 20s and 30s they played timeless test matches, ie. until a result was achieved. The longest lasted for ten days and only finished because the England team had to catch the boat home from South Africa.
95 For those who don’t see the “nasty party” angle, I suggest listening to David Davies’ interview on the Today programme. It was the kind of thing that would have got him arrested, had it been directed at black people. I don’t think I’ve ever heard such overt racism on the BBC ever before.
But for some reason, people in Britain think it’s ok to be racist towards Gypsies.
If this is the face of the Tories, well sorry, you are a bunch of racists.
Ben [93] - as you rightly suspect, it’s been some time since I had a long chat with a convenor steward
- I agree with your analysis. It has the interesting consequence that the TUs are now to the left of the constituency party membership, for the first time since the 1960s at least.
We are all assuming that there will be a “double election” but this surely depends on whether Brown thinks that his cause will be served by one - he might take the view that the divisions that will appear in a Deputy Leadership election would be more damaging than going into the next GE with Two-Jags still in post…
A final impish thought on Hilary Benn - yes, he’s a good little apparatchik… and so was his dad for donkey’s years - I remember ‘cos I’m very old
There is a pretty good chance that Prescott will leave the DL post before Blair ceases being leader - which will give us some idea about the post-Blairite political landscape in the party.
99 - Innocent Abroad
I have to say that there is that sense of dread at the back of my mind that Hillary will “immature with age” as Harold Wilson described his father doing
, I always favoured Tony Crossland (one of the few politicians I have nothing but sheer admiration for) ‘s analysis of Hillary’s dad, Tony, “there’s nothing wrong with weddgie, he’s just a little cracked” 
As for the TU’s I’d agree traditionally they where solidly on the pragmatic right of the party today they are on its “soft” left by and large with a significant minority of support for the hard left within the party… I’m not sure there so out of sink with the CLPs but the very nature of the TU does mean they tend to be more practical and realistic than ordinary members. But as I say I think the TU’s a pretty much on a par with the CLPs in terms of there political leanings… though that would seem to be more a reflection of the rightward tilt of the party leadership…
I do wonder if we’ll see what happened with the Democrats after Bill Clinton with Labour after Tony Blair, namely that the character of the party will have changed very little after his term in office is over.
Ben [101] - you’re by no means the first person to forget that there’s only one “s” in Crosland but two in Crossman - my mnemonic is that Crosland sat for Grimsby…
Pedantry apart, I would go so far as to suggest that your last paragraph defines the most interesting question in contemporary British politics. (It is also true of the French Socialist Party.) How the Lib Dems would love to know the answer! Indeed, that was perhaps the unformed thought that led me to the possibility that Brown might want Prescott to stay on…
Ben 101 - I think the comparison of Blair with Clinton’s impact on the Democrats is very perceptive and not one I had thought about before. Maybe we will be saying the same about the Tories when the Ken Clarke leadership comes to an end. Parties are “tribal” and the collective spirit that brings them together is greater than even the leader.
102 - Innocent Abroad
I agree, Prezza might be kept on a link to the party’s electoral base would be good when it comes to the deputy leadership, but I get the sense that Prezza really has had enough he might be convinced and seems to see the orderly transfer of the leadership from Blair to Brown as his great political mission and legacy along with maintaining the unity of the party during the Blair leadership.
I think Prezza is most likely to step down with Blair, but Brown could well want to convince him otherwise. If Prezza does stand down Brown’s needs in a deputy would be different to Blair’s, Brown does not need someone who mollifies the base or broadens his own political appeal nationally, what he does need would be to broaden the party’s personal appeal and indeed the party’s regional balance.
With Brown’s Scottish, Granite-like, Passionate, Pragmatic and Effective public image, while Blair was (at least back in the heady days of the mid-90’s) the flamboyant, approachable, well meaning, hard headed anti-politician, Brown would probably be best served by a more a more affable, dare I say flamboyant Labour politician who offered regional balance by coming from England (ruling out Peter Hain) the obvious choices to my mind would be Alan Johnson and David Blunckett but where Brown to simply want to soften his public image then Benn or Hewitt might make for better candidates… though in the end I think Johnson and Blunckett would be more likely and probably better suited, but all that could change.
103 - Mike Smithson
Thanks Mike
As I said I’m sorry to “go off on one” about the hopes of ‘dear Charles’, very nice guy actually
, but I’ve come off a long spell on a number of American political forums and its all so much more adversarial some of it seems to have rubbed off.
But I do think that Blair has had little impact on the attitudes of the party membership in general, though I would say that the nature of Blair’s office as PM and Party leader mean he’s had more of an impact that Clinton as a party’s nominee for President has had.
But it’s not necessarily a bad thing for the party to have pretty much the same pragmatic, yet grounded position as it did back in the mid-90’s, and of course events change things, so I doubt that the Labour leadership will be dominated by discussion over weather to privatise British Telecom
[104] Many thanks for your generous comments, Ben… I suppose the ideal deputy to Brown would have been the late Mo Mowlem
105.”I suppose the ideal deputy to Brown would have been the late Mo Mowlem ”
No, it would be Mandelson!
Re. 90, Heath’s ouster of Dame Patricia Hornsby Smith provoked some waspish comment in the press at the time about how a real gentleman would give up his seat to a lady.
85. The Lib Dems have selected Arthur Sanderson, their 2005 candidate for Glasgow South to contest the Cathcart by-election.
http://www.glasgowlibdems.org.uk/
Everytime I see Clarke I am sure “Big Ears” has been animated, all Labout now needs is Noddy and Mr Plod for a quorum…….
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