Clarke drops behind Cameron on the Betfair exchange
October 4th, 2005
After a morning of relatively heavy activity on the betting markets the ex-Etonian, David Cameron, has now moved into second favourite position on Betfair. At the time of this post he was on was at 4/1 compared with the 4.6/1 available on Ken Clarke.
Whether this will be sustained after Ken Clarke’s speech this afternoon we will have to wait and see but Cameron continues to get serious attention from the punters.
David Davis, meanwhile, has moved a little bit further out to 0.7/1
Mike Smithson>
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Old Etonian dark horses emerging at a Tory conference? Bever happened before….
But Clarke shouldn’t be underestimated, just as he was in danger of being overestimated until this week. Cameron is still weak in terms of parliamentary support and needs solid endorsements in order to keep his momentum going until the first ballot.
1. Agreed Observer. I’ve reduced some of my Clarke exposure, at a loss, and have switched some to Cameron. I am also looking to cover myself a little bit on Davis, if the price moves further out
Very shrewd number one. Clarke has been written off before, only to bounce back. He has in fact the easier task, unlike Cameron the Tories don’t have to imagine him fronting up to Blair and Brown they know he can do that. He needs to assure them that he not another Peel. To achieve that he just has to convince them that his Europhilia is deader than Elvis.
Does anyone know what time Ken Clarke is due to speak this afternoon?
4 Chris D. Around 3.40 pm.
Thanks Jack W.
This trend is very interesting.
If KC doesn’t do well later it could well be curtains..
Following the ‘Vote Ken, Get George’ comments in one of the Sundays this week, I assumne that you will all be watching George Osbourne at about 3.15 to get some idea of the form for the next leadership contest…
George Osbourne? The walking/talking personification of Tory Boy. He reminds me of some spotty lower sixth former boring everyone to death about flat taxes.
Incredibly, he makes Cameron look half decent. A great feat, in itself.
Thanks for that Adrian, nice to see pb.com users in such positive form.
9 - I’m sorry you find fiscal policy so boring, Adrian. Maybe our Shadow Chancellors should focus more on guitar riffs or practising kick-ups.
Re. 9, the content was good, and Osborne comes across as at least half-human, but he’s burdened by that squeaky voice.
A few days ago I made some approving comments about Davis Cameron’s Liberalism. This speech was, however unexpectedly (to me, though not to others here, clearly) right-wing. While Tory leadership elections are always won from the right, it seems to me that the agenda that DC just laid out is sincere conservatism. No joy for liberal conservatives here- though I bet Rik liked it… (our token National Liberal..)
I’m afraid I couldn’t take seriously Osborne, discussing anything more serious than a kiddies birthday party.
Just listen to his voice. Comes to something when truants attend a Tory Conference.
Cameron, Right wing? No, just another metropolitan liberal/left, multiculturalist.
I can’t see many Right wingers being hood-winked by him.
The Big Beast Roars !! That’s what I call leadership !! Go Ken Go !!
Did you think he was good? I thought he was very ordinary. i think we’ve all been over rating him.
Did you think he was good? I thought he was very ordinary. I think we’ve all been over rating him.
Ken Clarke’s speech was very good. Really exposes Cameron is a lightweight by comparison.
Did you think he was good? I thought he was very ordinary. I think we’ve all been over rating him.
Did you think he was good? I thought he was very ordinary. I think we’ve all been over rating him.
David Cameron, will be a certainty to swing many New Labour Blair voters over to the tories.
If its a choice between Brown or Cameron at the next election.
Cameron gave a good speech, Clarke a better one. I doubt Davis will come close to either of them. It is a shame that the final ballot won’t be Clarke and Cameron, although I keep hearing rumours of Davis supporters changing ship.
23. Has anyone heard anything further re Michael Fabricant no longer being shown as a supporter on Davis’ website?
I haven’t heard anything about it all day - has the media not spotted it?
I’ve been impressed by Cameron in the last few days (although I’ve not been able to see much of the contest as I’m overseas) but still think he lacks experience. If Clarke wins you get time for people like Cameron, Gove, Osbourne to develop whilst at the same time they don’t have to wait for years to take over the party. If a Fox or Davis wins then it could be a long time before any of them get a crack at the leadership.
Wonderful stitch up by ITV on DD, showing dozens of his audience at a fringe meeting fast asleep, laying the ground work for a DD must perform better piece !!
25 Max. Good comment. BTW we now have the prospect of a quartet of loonies on the right standing ! In addition to Fox, Lothian and Leigh add the name of ………… Bill Cash
:lol:
Earlier I said Redwood in jest !! ….. but Bill Cash !!!!!!
26. Jack, did you like Ken’s performance? I din’t like his delivery of the first part of his speech: he bored him. Then at the end he seems more brilliant.
[27] Perhaps it would be simpler if they didn’t bother with nominations, and just had write-ins on the first round…
28 Andrea. Yes I liked it a lot. Especially the bit about working down to 40% GDP. Reminded me of why I used to vote Conservative. Good joke at the end :
“The public are looking for a Prime Minister in waiting ….. and boy have you kept me waiting …”
Even Mrs Jack W took note of our Kens speech and liked it which surprised me. Mind you Kinkell put it all in context at the end of our Ken’s tour de force :
“I see the Tories are raiding geriatric wards for leadership candidates”
30. yes, the last joke was funny.
I’ll have to see the highlights on the news. I was watching the re-run on the BBC website and got bored half way through and switched over…
Clarke’s speech was an interesting one which essentially divided into two parts: a robust critique of NuLab economics followed by more traditional barn-storming leadership bid fare. Overall, I think it has been the strongest of the three to date. I can see how he could have come across as arrogant, but I infinitely prefer his buoyant self-confidence to Blair’s sham modesty.
That said (with apologies to Tabman), I was impressed with Cameron. I must confess that I haven’t really seen him much in action, but he came across as sincere, decent, principled and - allaying my particular fears - not a quasi-Blairite on policy. Nevertheless, he does not - yet - have the gravitas or experience to be seen as a realistic PM-in-waiting.
The pressure will really now be on Davis, who is not a natural orator by any means. If the rumours are true, some of his camp are getting decidedly wobbly.
The nametape’s printed “William Cash”
And this time I may have a bash
I keep my wits, defy the whips
Why’s my bid on no one’s lips?
33 Another Alex. I think that’s a fair analysis. DD has to pull something out of the bag now. I agree with your comments on DC, who performed well. He must be kicking himself that the early part of his campaign was so lack lustre.
35 - “He must be kicking himself that the early part of his campaign was so lack lustre.”
Maybe it’s not so bad for him: he disappeared and turned himself into a very small target after initially establishing himself as a contender.
Here’s a poser. Who would win if it went to Clarke v Cameron in the member ballot?
It is feasible, just about, that Davis might not make the final. That’s what happened to Portillo in 2001 and this election has the extra delicious dimension of the conference.
Thank you the Tories for giving us some much pleasure.
I thought the most interesting bit of Ken Clarke’s speech was his critique of New Labour’s style of government and how the Tories suffer from guilt by association because they are politicians. It was a much more positive and effective way of framing their image problem than the self-flagellation of Duncan et al.
It seems I really missed a lot during these 2 days:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/graphics/2005/09/22/libdems/utory003.jpg
Sinn Fein’s MPs aren’t really able to stay away from controversial comments:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2005/10/04/usinnfein.xml&sSheet=/portal/2005/10/04/ixportaltop.html
37 Mike. I think it unlikely that DD will fail to make the cut, unless he implodes in his speech … possible - he’s not the greatest of orators - much like a speak your weight machine - but I expect a solid, risk averse performance.
36 book value. No. DC missed a trick by appearing invisible. He needed to make his mark early and blew the first phase of the campaign.
40 - we’ll see. Either way I’m not sure he could have done much about it. It was inevitable Clarke would sweep the headlines once he declared himself.
41 book value. He could have declared first …. remember Rodders :
“He who dares …..”
What odds DD says it …… another Portillo moment
42. Jack W- I’m not sure it would have changed the situation. Cameron wasn’t officially declared, but it was like he was “declared” anyway.
42 - but even so: everyone knew he was running, so would the formal declaration really have made a difference?
I haven’t seen any odds on conference speeches this time, though there usually are a few markets.
42/43 Andrea/book value. So, you make a virtue of it and get in first, fanfare and all, remember DC got back on the tracks with an impressive launch. As an unknown he needed to get out of the traps early and not dither. His backers know it, and are now hoping they might pull of a masterstroke at the death.
Quite a lot of movement on Betfair in the last hour and it’s strongly in Cameron’s direction.
After Clarke’s speech he could be backed around 5.0 and Cameron was around 6.0.
Now Cameron is just back to second favourite at 5.5 with Clarke at 5.6.
Are there any new public declarations? I would have thought Cameron and Clarke would have announced new MP supporters following their speeches to generate momentum? But I haven’t seen any.
Fox has been drifting - now at 14.0. This seems a bit odd - with so many doubts about Davis surely Fox has an excellent chance if he makes the final 2.
Clarke’s speech was fantastic, just the stuff of leadership but Cameron has impressed too, and today’s efforts will guarantee himself a very senior role in whoever’s shadow cabinet.
Huge move to Cameron in last 5 minutes since above post.
Now Cameron clear second favourite at 4.5. Clarke now at 6.0.
Suspect something major has just happened. Don’t know what.
46 Mike L. Fox has NO chance against any mainstream candidate. He might edge out Edward Leigh as the least of two wacky candidates.
The exchanges will be all over the place in the next few days …… the area to watch is the Tory press and where their columnists and editorials drift by the end of the week.
The Tory Party has to appeal to voters like myself i.e. right of centre Labour supporters especially in the type of constituency that I live in – Broxtowe – but for my vote to change it’s the Labour Party that has to change not the Conservative one. There are certain labour policies that I find hard to stomach but generally I’m satisfied.
Of the Tory candidates DD is the one that appeals to me most probably because of his background but KC appeals to like-minded labour friends.
Separated at Birth:
Rifkind
Ericsson
47. Ken’s speech today was nothing other than that was expected of him. He showed nothing new, which is precisely his main selling point. I can’t really see him either being offered or accepting a position in a David Davis shadow cabinet.
Just had a chuckle watching the news - lots of people snoozing while David Davis was speaking at a fringe meeting.
Does anyone else find that Cameron’s mannerisms when being interviewed are very reminiscent of Peter Mandelson?
Interesting question is how far Tory members vote on policy, how far on prospects of winning, and how far simply on liking people. (Labour members are mainly focused on the first two when we vote on candidates - just being a nice chap doesn’t count for much.) Ken C isn’t bothering at all on policy - as I understand it, his position is that he’ll beat Labour and then do the same sort of stuff better, which for many floating voters is a perfectly acceptable position. Cameron has got lots of policies - it’s part of his modernisation pitch, and it gets him critical acclaim but could scare the horses at election time. Davis is somewhere in between - various views, but nothing very new. I think he’ll do OK tomorrow, though - he’s a fair speaker, just not in the very top flight.
54 - Alan Milburn. Separated at birth.
54. Osborne said in his speech that he would like to export Mandelson. Not sure any country is ready to take him.
Latest betting has the Davis price moving sharply out with Cameron now well established ahead of Clarke as second favourite. Currently the Betfair exchange prices are 0.87/1 Davis; 3.5/1 Cameron and 4.4/1 Clark.
The big change this evening is the easing of the Davis price.
58. I think the gap between Cameron and Clarke was bigger earlier in the evening. It has been reduced a bit in the last couple of minutes.
I can’t really see DD failing to make the final two but its hard to see him offering a distinctive position within the party. If you want a genuine ‘one-nation’ Tory you go for Clarke, if you want a genuine moderniser you go for DC and if you want a genuine right-winger you go for Fox. Its hard to see what DD’s unique selling point is.
60 - not suggesting he might be the unity candidate by any chance, Max?
One thing we do all have in common
Is that none of is really that common
Except David (that is Davis) of course
Whose background is exceedingly coarse
But modern politics is appealing to hoards
And we don’t want chaps from the Lords
We need someone who talks to the folk
So who- the Doctor, the Toff or the Bloke?
60.”Its hard to see what DD’s unique selling point is. ”
A bit of everything: a sort of minestrone soup.
btw, Max, how is the weather there?
re 58 not surprised given this week so far…at what point does Davis become good value? I am surprised he has so many MPs signed up but would be even more surprised if they drifted away now and he failed to make the final ballot.
From what I have seen there is still ’space’ between Cameron, Clarke, Fox for Davis to display gravitas and direction and firm up his position. Whether he’s up to it I’m uncertain.
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/toryleader/comment/0,16473,1584820,00.html
Davis “weakening” price is merely a reflection of the genuine emergence of Cameron as a contender. Whilst it was thought that Davis/Clarke runoff was too close to call Davis was heavy favourite by virtue of the uncertainty of Clarke making the final two. Cameron’s perceived “strong performance” has now made Ken less likely to make the final two (so he has weakened) and Davis less likely to win the run-off (so he likewise).
60 - I doubt IDS would agree! We need to know where we’re going to be led. You can’t expect people to vote for you if you haven’t told them where you’re going. I think with the others you at least have a flavour for what the party would look and sound like. Still maybe we’ll find out more tomorrow!
Andrea - Its OK but I’ve been stuck in an office all day!
62. bill wobbledagger, are you Jack or Tabman? Or both?
66 - It’s simple! If Fox wins Davis gets the “pro-modernisation and one-nation vote”, Cameron the “right-wing and one nation vote” and Ken the “right wing and pro-modernisation vote”. On the assumption that no one faction has a majority he wins.
27 (or anybody actually) - On what grounds is Foxy a “loony”?
I am neither of those people - nor was I Another B. “Wobbleblogger”
However, his interjection has stoked up some rivalry for satirical poetry, an art I thought dead along with … well other kinds of poetry. So try this for size Wobbleblogger!
Blackpool 2005 - a tribute
The Tories have many beliefs
Hence the plethora of would be chiefs
Social liberals, compassionate authoritarians
Some from towns, some from cities, some agrarians
None of them black, none women, certainly not Fenians
All of them chiefs - but no f***ing Indians!
Quite a lot of talk about MPs changing their minds - I’ve heard at least 2 MPs (not well known ones, can’t remember names) saying that even MPs who have publically declared may well vote differently.
I think an important consequence of this is that it will significantly reduce the possibility of Davis getting “surplus” supporters to vote tactically for Fox.
This had been thought likely a few days ago but now he really cannot be confident of how much support he really has.
If you accept the proposition that Tony Blair is basically a centre right politician leading a centre left party (which I do), then Ken Clarke basically carrying on with “Blairism” but without the baggage of Iraq looks like quite a good proposition to the average punter. Even for many Tories, thinks start to look a lot better - in Clarke’s favor - this way.
See Vino’s comments above, for example, as well as Nick Palmer’s.
72 - succinctly put.
I think Fox is a better bet than most people realize (at least to get to the final two). After all since DD has more than enough people to get him to the final run off it would be logical for him to get his supporters to vote for Fox to eliminate Clarke and Cameron (just as IDS supporters voted for Ken Clarke to eliminate Portillo). Never understimate the Tory ability to shoot themselves in the foot.
74.”After all since DD has more than enough people to get him to the final run off it would be logical for him ”
After the current rumours of MPs not voting the candidate they’ve declared for, I’m not sure he would risk. Then having a strong lead over the second could be helpful according to some theories (I think Alex is backing the idea that members would find difficult to vote against a candidate with a strong lead between MPs).
” (just as IDS supporters voted for Ken Clarke to eliminate Portillo). ”
if it was true and not only an urban legend.
“Never understimate the Tory ability to shoot themselves in the foot. ”
I think they want to win an international award in that category
Quick note from Blackpool, as I am using my host’s computer, I will be brief. Conference has been great fun thus far. Delegates are generally in good, upbeat moods there is quite an atmosphere of expectation and excitement surrounding the events set to play out between now and 6th December. Maude’s opener was pretty sober stuff, and some of it needed saying, but I think he went a bit too far with the self-flagellation end of it. I think the world of Theresa May as an MP and cabinet material, but she is just not a deft conference performer… too marmish. I thought Rifkind did well and has the respect of everyone in the hall, but it’s too little, too late. Wasn’t thrilled with Alan Duncan’s performance, but some of his jabs at Labour were good.
Cameron’s speech was fantastic. He came across very smoothly and I think he has probably changed some minds, which camp they come from is unclear. I was extremely impressed and I am reminded why my first instinct at the beginning of the contest was to back him.
Clarke’s speech was the best of the day. He drew the most enthusiastic applause and had some of the best lines. The people I have spoken to (not all of them KC backers either) all seem to think that he is the man that could make the most progress in the shortest time and has the stuff it takes to be PM. Everything now rests with Davis, but there is a bit of a sense that he’s been an invisible man here… I haven’t seen much of him and I haven’t been approached by anyone from his camp to seriously talk about bringing me over. He will need to give an exceptional performance to come out of the conference with any momentum in my view, though he is still the favourite. Looking forward to the next two days!
I have trouble hearing some of what Davis says. He just isn’t a good confident public performer. Why is he so over-rated? I just don’t get him.
Cameron really raised the game with his notes free speech. He showed passion, intellect and a very fast mind.
Clarke ‘looked’ Churchillian. A big bruiser who would be such a contrast to Blair he would give him so many knockout punches that Blair would want to resign sooner and not later.
Labour must be terrified of Clarke. Tories would be stupid to pick Davis over him.
Clarke has his faults. I’m very Eurosceptic, but the constitution and Euro are non-issues for a very long time. His tobacco links show he is flawed, but his position on Iraq and the economy and his anti-spin style are all winners. Clarke would be bullet proof up against Blair. Blair would look like a wimp up against him.
The Lib Dem vote would collapse up against Clarke. Clarke’s centre left position among Tories, political style and war stance would destroy Kennedy’s leadership very quickly.
Blair would be chased out of office and what a great team Clarke could have with those condenders.
It would be an act of political suicide for Tories to reject Clarke at this stage.
51 - Tabman, I’m sure there are several awwful puns to be made including terms such as “unfillable left wing position”…
Nice pic of KC: http://www.independent.co.uk/
Did anyone else hear “Lord” Hurd this morning on Radio 4? His apologies for Putin were an absolute disgrace. Anyone know what directorships he has taken that justify his malicious drivel? The worst Foreign Secretary in a generation, (and this in a peer group that includes Jack Straw!) he now makes his apologies for dubious and dangerous regimes from the well upholstered comfort of “talking his own book”, as we say in the City. Vermin.
Hugely amused to discover that “Douglas Hurd” has entered the vocabulary of cockney rhyming slang: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Douglas_Hurd
And yes- he really is a complete… “Douglas” and a scandalous disgrace to his country and his party.
78 -
) explaining Rifkind’s sorry role in Bosnia.
79 - The cartoon is even better; a tiny, robed DC hidden under a bloated Ken’s belly, captioned “Has anyone seen a little Tory nob?” ROFLMAO!!!
80 - James O, or Rifkind. There’s a book, I think by Mischa Glenny (you’ll probably know the one I mean and have it on your library shelves
[82] Rifkind had no idea what was going on as Yugoslavia went up in smoke, but Douglas Turd not only knew what was going on… he actively prevented one side form defending itself in Bosnia (and at that time the casualties were 90% on one side) and then six months after he left office, he trousered a lot of money as the result of a deal with Serbia to privatise Telekom Serbije.
The fact that he was on the radio this morning defending Putin made my blood boil. That b*****d should be in the Hague for Bosnia and the fact that he is being paid to defend the vile and disgusting butcher of the Caucasus may be “the free market” but we should remind everyone who he is, what he did, and why, when he faces his maker, he is on a one way trip to somewhere a lot warmer.
83 - he was defence secretary! He must have had some idea?
Bosnia and Herzegovina (1992-95): 175 000 Total Dead
U.S. State Dept.: 250,000 (Bosnia and Herzegovina Country Report on Human Rights Practices for 1996 [http://www.state.gov/www/global/human_rights/1996_hrp_report/bosniahe.html])
29 April 1999 AP: 250,000
Compton’s Encyclopedia: 200,000
6 April 2002 Times [London]: 200,000, incl…
D. in siege of Sarajevo: 15,000
Massacred in Srebrenica: 8,000
MEDIAN: ca. 175,000
International Helsinki Federation for Human Rights: more than 160,000 (Annual Report 1997 [http://www.ihf-hr.org/ar97bos.htm])
Dan Smith (The State of War and Peace Atlas 1997) uses the Bosnian War as the example of how difficult it is to estimate accurate death tolls, but in the end, he settles for 150,000.
B&J: >60,000
George Kenney, The Bosnia Calculation (NY Times Magazine, 23 April 1995): 25,000 to 60,000 ([http://suc.suc.org/politics/myth/articles/042395.George_Kenney.html])
Srebrenica
6 July 2000 LA Times:
4,700 bodies exhumed
Internat. Red Cross estimates total of 7,079 k.
Amal Masovic’s B-H govt. commission: 8,400
c. 100,000 women were raped.
The death toll of the camps at Omarska and Prijedor is not known.
Any memeber of the Conservative government of the time should have these numbers engraved on their hearts. Douglas Hurd should rot in Hell for his personal greed. Rifkind I am less censorious about.
76.” Wasn’t thrilled with Alan Duncan’s performance, but some of his jabs at Labour were good.”
AD is happy about how is speech was received: Phew! I told them straight - and they took it well. Not a boo, or a heckle of ‘nonsense’ in sight. Most of them even stood up at the end and clapped
Hurd commissioned an official history of British policy during the Yugoslavian wars, to remain secret for 25 years, which will make interesting reading.
87 - I wouldn’t be surprised if the 25 became 100.
How much of the move in Cameron’s price (now 4/1 on Betfair) is due to his endorsement in today’s Sun by Irwin Stelzer (Murdoch’s voice on earth) ?