Six months of betting – six weeks to go

Three quarters of a way into the eight month battle for the Tory leadership it is now down to just two men – the two Daves – Cameron and Davis.

On the betting markets there’s been a slight easing of the Cameron price and a tightening of the Davis price. Many punters had been piling into Cameron in the expectation that the contest might be over this weekend. Now the battle is going to carry on there a lot of position covering happening as punters try to get some cash back by laying Cameron.

Now Davis is the only person left who can beat Cameron his price has tightened.

Things should settle down in the coming days and we’ll all have to wait until December 6th for the final outcome.

The chart shows the implied probability of the two men winning based on the best betting prices since the contest was called in early May.

Best betting exchange prices; Cameron 0.12/1: Davis 7.2/1
Best bookmaker prices; Cameron 1/12: Davis 6/1

Mike Smithson