New poll blow to Team Davis

Cameron tightens to 1/10 on Betfair

With the final MP ballot due to take place this afternoon a YouGov poll of Tory party members in the Telegraph this morning has Cameron 59%: Fox 18%: Davis 15%.

This poll is taken very seriously because a similar survey ahead of the 2001 membership ballot predicted the final result to within one percent. Other findings:-

If the membership ballot was between Davis and Cameron the Shadow Education secretary would win by 72-22%.

If it was Cameron and Fox then the split would be 67-27%.

If the final was Fox and Davis then the Shadow Foreign Secretary would win by 48-39%

Half those members in the survey thought David Davis had been damaged by the drugs affair with 12% thinking that Cameron’s standing had been hurt most.

The poll shows a further move to Cameron since the last similar survey eleven days ago. Then the Cameron would beat Davis by 66-27%. In the summer Davis had a big lead amongst the membership.

In the betting on who will be eliminated today Fox is 0.5/1 on the betting exchange and 4/6 with a conventional bookmaker. Davis has a 1.64/1 exchange price and is 11/10 bookmaker price.

The suggestion that it might be all over tonight with the runner-up conceding has led to the Shadow Education Secretary’s price tightening even further. The idea that a bet today could see winnings tomorrow, even at 1/10, is appealing for punters wanting a quick and what they see as a sure return.

Best betting exchange prices; Cameron 0.14/1: Davis 11/1: Fox 14.5/1
Best bookmaker prices; Cameron 1/6: Davis 6/1: Fox 8/1
IG’s Binary spread-market. Cameron 80-88: Davis 5-11

Prediction Competition
Paul Maggs writes: David Cameron is the clear leader with all but two competitors saying he will win, and with an average score of 93.0 votes. However, the other two contenders are almost dead level, with Liam Fox on an average score of 52.8 votes, and David Davis averaging 52.2. Even if we add all the predictions together, Fox has a lead of just 29 votes, out of nearly 5,500 for the Fox and Davis predictions combined. Davis predictions split 25-25 between second and third place, with 27-24 for Fox.

Mike Smithson