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Labour up 1% in the PB.C General Election Index

November 27th, 2005

    YouGov and pensions row fail to dampen markets

Punters on the “which party will win most General Election seats” markets are taking a slightly more optimistic view of Labour’s chances in spite of the YouGov poll showing a 6% drop in the party’s lead and the ongoing row over pensions policy.

PB.C’s weekly index is based on the best betting odds available on Labour and is presented in terms of implied probability of it securing most seats at the next election. This morning it stands at 58.5%.

The findings of Friday’s YouGov poll in the Telegraph which had a majority of those surveyed saying that the Tories General Election chances have improved do not seem to have impressed the punters who are prepared to put money into this long-term market.

It should be noted that the betting is on which party will secure most seats – not on whether Labour will get a majority. Given that many experts reckon that the Tories need to be several points ahead on votes just to be level on seats it is, perhaps, surprising that the index is so low.

Mike Smithson






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