It was Newsnight wot did it
December 6th, 2005
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The fourteen minutes that changed the shape of British politics
If you want to find just how David Cameron managed to pull off his spectacular victory you need do no more than look again at the fourteen minute feature that appeared on Newsnight on BBC2 on October 3.
For it was this report of a “focus” group staged by the US pollster Frank Luntz that did more, I contend, to boost the Cameron campaign than anything else during that week in Blackpool two months ago. Received opinion has it that the 39 year old won it with his speech - but looking at the betting the big move to Cameron - from 9/1 to 5/1 - came within an hour or so of that Newsnight programme.
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Whatever you thought about Luntz’s approach suddenly the press, politicians and punters were looking at Cameron in a different way and it was this that set the scene for his famous speech.
Cameron’s team produced videos overnight and by the morning leading journalists, party officials and other opinion formers had been given a copy.
At the time I described it like this; “Those being surveyed watched videos of the five contenders with meters in their hand where they could react instantly to what they were seeing on the screen. What was being presented suggests that Cameron appears to resonate with people of all ages and political persuasions in a way that no other UK politician has done since the emergence of Tony Blair. If the young ex-Etonian does make it to the final membership ballot then there can be little doubt that he will win easily.”
The Luntz piece helped Cameron to take his party by storm. Now it is the country he has to convince and we are moving into the unknown. It is a brave punter who makes predictions.
Mike Smithson
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i don’t agree. i doubt most tory members watched that newsnight. what won it for cameron was when the press and tv decided he had made a great speech (he didn’t) and that davis made a stinker (he did) in blackpool. cheerleader nick robinson no doubt hoping for the press secretary’s job should dave ever make it to downing street (he won’t). that and the fact it was obvious that davis was rubbish and if they picked him they would get another shoeing at the next election.
1 - Ah so everyone else is wrong but Bally Eric is right!!!!
Mike I agree with you. I found the Newsnight piece very interesting and it told me what I needed to hear, that we had found a candidate that could resonate with the public. Previously this had been seen as Davis but as I have previously stated, he failed to rise to the occasion. The Conference speech for me was a culmination of a process that had seen me move from being a Davis supporter, to undecided and then to Cameron. THis process included attending Davis’s unimpressive campaign launch as well.
Cameron seized the opportunity that the Newsnight piece gave him. itself a demonstration of more tactical awareness than people gave him credit for.
I heard of the trailer for the Newsnight piece, as I suspect did many activists and watched it with fascination. With the coverage it subsequently obtained and the circulation of the DVD (which I still have) I have no doubt that it was a decisive factor!
i don’t agree with bally eric. he thinks he has got it right (he hasn’t). he thinks he knows what people think (he doesn’t). He says dave didn’t make a great speech at the conference (he did) and he won’t make it to downing street (he will). it is obvious he supports labour (he does).
The one thing that above all pushed Cameron in the lead doesn’t have to be something Cameron himself did. I’ll say it again: what pushed Cameron so clearly in the lead was what Davis did in his Blackpool conference speech.
I agree with Mike (and Rik) that it was that particular feature on Newsnight that got the train rolling and by good fortune the press had nothing else to write about the following day. And by similar good fortune the Tories had been looking for a Messiah like Erik Idle in ‘Life of Brian’ and the momentum became unstoppable.
I remember something similar happening to Tony Blair after John Smith died. Everyone was saying we shouldn’t talk about leadership contenders and no one was until on a news program Dennis Healey came on and said Tony Blair was head and shoulders better than all the other possible candidates and he should be elected without delay. And that was the moment that the unstoppable momentum began.
haha blue2win v. good. but perhaps i know a bit more about what people think…we have won three elections for the first time ever
BTW, I notice it’s now just 1/1 that Blair will leave in 2006. Maybe I’m wrong, but these are quite low odds - surprising given how much criticism Brown has faced recently.
6 - Being a Labour supporter doesn’t in itself mean you are qualified to know “what people think”. Pretty weak reasoning.
6 - The royal we eh? And what grand contribution did you make to Labour’s electoral success?
7: That’s amazingly low odds. Is there somewhere one can bet against his retiring in 2006 at, say, 4-6 odds?
I wouldn’t have thought one TV programme was decisive - rather, the poor reception given by delegates and media to Davis’s conference speech.
O/T: keeping an eye on the German opinion polls, in case anyone’s interested. All the big events over there haven’t changed anything significantly since the election.
I wouldn’t have thought one TV programme was decisive - rather, the poor reception given by delegates and media to Davis’s conference speech.
Exactly.
Strkes me as a rather irrelevant discussion frankly. (Clearly it was both.)
Thatcher wins shock!
The Tory dynasty was confirmed as Carol Thatcher was last night declared leader of the Conservative Party.
Thousands of confused elderly Tory members had got their addresses mixed up and written in ‘Thatcher’ as the winner of their favourite non-reality TV drama.
Meanwhile, an Old Etonian has become the sure-fire winner of “I’m
aToryLeaderGetMeOutaHere”. David Cameron emerged triumphant following a thirteen week ordeal of eating rubber chickens, kissing grannies and making vacuouos statements.
A Queue of applicants for the next series is stretching around Parliament Square. With five leaders in eight years, the Tories are selling hard the prospect that becoming Conservative party leader was the nearest thing yet to a complete lottery. Cameron’s opening odds were 35 to 1; there have been Tory leaders from 5 out of the 200 constituencies returning Conservatives in this time. Among those in the queue was George Michael who, besides having the current top two tories as his forename and surname, was enthused at comments from Gordon Brown that the Osborn/Cameron connection was a ‘Gae Marriage’. Paul Gasgoine was ejected from the queue because his name was too posh and he kept spilling the white powder.
Answering Mr Cameron in the first session of QTTPM, Prime Minister Tony Blair said:
I thank the Hon Member for Richmond….er…Huntingdon er. .Folkestone…er somewhere in the southern Torylands which my Scottish empire governeth. . . . I understand that he is the victor of a meaningless game show and one which apparently has been secretly merged with ‘Space Cadett’ in which the candidates are locked away for three years of meaningless activity and public derision only to discover that they are going nowhere..”
Meanwhile Conservatives have not been slow to issue their first press policy statement of the new reign. Central Office has announced that if the public votes for their man at the next election, they will be saving the NHS the phenomenal saving of a Prime Ministerial face transplant, as well as assuring us that the total vaccuum of policy and principles will remain the same.
It was Davis himself who did it - that speech done him in
Re. 4, many comparisons have been made between Davis flopping this year and Butler flopping in 63, but the way in which Davis failed to rise to the occasion reminds me more of Reginald Maudling in 63 (I’m sure the reaction of many of Davis’ supporters must have been along the lines of Macleod’s comment - which I remember reading in Rob Sheperd’s biography of him - ‘Reggie, how could you?’) Or, as Edward Pearce put it in ‘The Lost Leaders’, Maudling sounded like ‘plywood given the gift of speech’.
Maybe our resident Maudling biographer, Lewis Baston, could comment?
Richard, I hope you’ve been saving your pennies all year and can bid for the privilege of dinner with Yasmin Alibhai-Brown. I see that this year she’ll just take you to a curry house rather than cook herself.
http://news.independent.co.uk/appeals/indy_appeal/article331304.ece
so what do people think davis’s position should be in the shadow cabinet. Getting that right will prove a major hurdle. If cameron can clear that then he should settle in ok, i wouldnt like the thought of having davis causing troubles through - out my tenure as leader
Whilst I appreaciate that Cameron is more likely than not to win, and I agree about the reasons why, it is in my view not quite as certain as the pundits say it is.
For my money I would like Davies to win, if nothing else to see so much egg on so many faces. We have only a few hours left to wait…
Thought I ought to repost this charming story from Harry’s Place
(www.hurryupharry.bloghouse.net)
‘In Trinity Term 1989, Chris McGrath - latterly racing correspondent of the Times and the Independent - passed a group of Oxford University Conservative Association hacks huddled together in Brasenose New Quad, who were earnestly discussing matters of great political importance. McGrath commented:
“Look at you, sitting there, wondering which one of you is going to be Prime Minister. Well let me tell you, the person in this college who is going to become Prime Minister isn’t even a member of OUCA.
That person is David Cameron”‘
Tastic! I always hated the political hacks at my university (UCL); they were dour, earnest, joyless careerists - mostly leftwing - and some of them are Labour MPs now. Depressing. I’m glad to hear that a normal person is going to get a top job, at last!
Cameron may have one vital feature for success: he is certainly lucky. His opponent imploded at the conference and after yesterday, it looks like Gordon Brown is past his sell-by date. To become leader just as the press is turning on Brown is interesting timing to say the least. The fact that the Parliamentary malcontents of the Tory party is now down to only 25 or so, is also lucky. However, he is going to have to start putting meat on the bones soon. bearing in mind that the idea of leaving the European People’s Party was somrthing of a mis-step, and that he was also largely involved in the preparation of the manifesto, which was frankly an incoherrent failure, the jury is still out on David Cameron. Luck and Charm are essential in today’s politicians- but unless he can start articulating an attractive and coherrent “big idea” pretty soon, he is going to come across as a light weight. The Tories have taken a risk- the next three months will tell if it was worth it.
I think when the leadership race started many of us were pretty undecided about who to vote for. The newsnight programme showed that DC was someone who might just be able to boost our vote - and to many of us the thought of winning was/is more important than which wing of the party someone is from. DD then blew it with his poor speach, and DC’s speach was well received - and that was that - all sorted. Since then DC has run a good campaign, shown skills in meadia handling, and still looks the candidate of the 4/5 most likely to keep the Party together and get us more votes.
Great victory for C Thatch last night. Vote Thatcher one more time she said last night, and many did. Shows the country have stopped hating all Tories.
Should Cameron offer Carol Thatcher a safe seat?
4. But Peter, the bar had been placed so high by the media for Davis that he was never going to make ‘that speech’. It was a done deal by the time he walked into the auditorium, and as soon as he started speaking it became clear that he hadn’t done enough and the money and publicity started fleeing.
Rik - just how much money have you got on Cameron getting 72.5% of the vote?
Is there any news how the count is going?
Re 25, I doubt it. The vote is being run by the electoral reform society, so I suspect there will be no news untill the final result.
I have been amused by the Sunday Telegraph (might have been the saturday one) a few weeks ago insisting that of the votes counted Cameron was ahead. Last Sundays telegraph said the votes were still sealed and would be untill today.
I wonder when the votes were cast though. I left mine untill almost the last minute to give both sides the chance to change my mind.
15. Maudling sounded like ‘plywood given the gift of speech’.Maybe our resident Maudling biographer, Lewis Baston, could comment?
I’ll accept Richard’s invitation. I think there are some parallels between Davis 2005 and Maudling 1963, and that they’re more apposite than comparing Davis and Butler (Ken Clarke was the Butler figure this time, in my opinion, but far from an exact match - in his persona and policies there is something of Reggie about Clarke).
The task for Reggie at conference in 1963 was to remind the Conservatives why they had nearly univerally favoured him in June 1963 (if Macmillan had resigned over Profumo, Maudling would have been installed in a coronation) - his youth, modernity and successful policies. But, probably from over-preparation and a subconscious fear of success, Reggie fluffed it. The speech itself was not a bad one - it still reads very well. But it was not conference fare. It was a rather Brownian recitation of statistics, and failed utterly to pander to the conference mentality - he warned them that there was no room for tax cuts and concentrated on overseas aid and public services. Brave, but not what they wanted - a fighting speech to revive the mood after the dismal preceding year. Maudling fluffed all his applause lines and read it very boringly. Loyal Maudlingites in the audience leapt to their feet to try to stimulate a standing ovation, but one by one sat down in embarrassment. It wasn’t over for Reggie, but he was damaged after the conference failure. The Etonian, Alec Douglas-Home, was taken more seriously as a contender after a good, if pandering, speech. Reggie always despised the Conservative Party conference.
So, I think the comparison between Davis and Maudling is quite apt - both delivered their speeches badly and got the mood of the conference wrong (Davis by pandering, Maudling by not pandering). But Davis also committed an error of Quintin Hogg, with his exuberant (not to say vulgar) campaigning - the double-D’s and Randolph Churchill slapping ‘Q’ stickers all over the place did not impress.
There was quite a good edition of the Radio 4 history programme ‘The Long View’ comparing Blackpool ‘63 and Blackpool ‘05.
Notes From The Palace :
To My Trusty And Beloved Subjects, Greetings.
Well here at Buck House, it’s been quite a day. First thing this morning dear Hubby was banging away in the back garden, more of which later, and then my new Lady of the Bedchamber, a certain Jordan, brings in the ironed newspapers with the shock headline - “Thatcher Wins In Landslide”. We can tell one that we broke out in a cold chill a la 1997, until Jordan reminded me it was events down Oz way and that I’d voted for “Hissing” Sid Owen last night. Anne had tried to get me to vote for Carol Thatcher but I said to Anne - You turn if you want to, Queenie’s not for turning ….. No No No !! However you have hand it to Carol Thatcher, eating those testicles…. it must run in the family as her the mother had Cabinet by the balls often enough. …….. I’m still not convinced by Jordan but Phillip assures me that Jordan is from a noble family in the Hashemite Kingdom …. oh well.
Last night one also hosted a reception and one got severe ear ache from Obergruppenfuhreur Derek Conway, who wanted to know why I wasn’t a Tory party member and didn’t vote for DD ! Conway said I was eminently qualified as I was rich, old, titled and mad. To which I said that 3 out of 4 wasn’t bad as after Gordon’s chat yesterday I probably wasn’t rich any longer. However I reproached Conway for his impertinence and told him he’d shortly be on a barge on the Thames heading under the gates of the Tower of London. Far from being put off, Conway said would we rent out the Tower for a week so he might show his appreciation to the traitorous bast**ds who hadn’t voted for DD. …Ah Bless….. I didn’t realize that David Dickinson was in the running for the Tory Party leadership anyway.
Meanwhile all these problems about Church of England prayers for Camilla ….. I said to Prince Chuck if I wanted to pray for an old dog there were plenty of corgis to think about first. My eldest then said shouldn’t we pray for the Tories today. I said prayer is fine but the Tories need a miracle !!
Dear Wills is also heading for trouble, now that he’s President of the Football Association and on this YTS thing, he thought he might take over at Kettering Town from that nice Paul Gascoigne Dascoigne of Ealing fame. However I told Wills he should try for work experience with the family team - Hanover FC.
And finally….. all that banging from Phillip ….. Yes you’ve guessed it ….. after last nights Anthea Turner Prize, he’s knocking up a few sheds with Jordan …. although with his record it might be knocking up Jordan in the shed !!
Anyway, I’m off to the Post Office to collect my Winter Fuel Payment … what Gordon takes away with one hand ……
26 - Quite right. I should add that there is a difference between the Electoral Reform Society (http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/)(for whom I work) and Electoral Reform Services (http://www.electoralreform.co.uk/), who count votes for clients. The latter work in a separate building in conditions of some secrecy when it comes to counting votes, so I have no insider knowledge to offer!
26,29. OK, thanks. I thought both sides would have observers at the count and that the approximate result would be likely to leak out.
3 - your post is so hilariously dripping in self-delusion. Those kind of knee jerk reactions when your fantasies and belief systems are challenged are amusing.
Sean T writes: “I’m glad to hear that a normal person is going to get a top job, at last” … An Eton schooled, Whites member with a massive trust fund, married to an aristocrat - yeah, REALLY normal.
31 stonch. Who are you refering to ?? bally eric or Blue2Win (I don’t know)
It seems the closer to the Cameron Coronation, the more the inverted snobbery comes out.
33. It seems he’s missing the joke
34. Yes Sophia - this is just such a terrible injustice. All that discrimination against the Eton-educated, land-owning aristocracy. Perhaps, Cameron could do something about it - propose a Toffs Discrimination Act?
not snobbery, i just hate trust fund tories telling me the minimum wage or new deal are more than the country can afford
I suppose if you idolise Gordon Brown, it gives you a different take on normality.
36 - Oh I don’t think people who make snobbery or interveted snobbery comments should be banned because the only people made to look narrow-minded and stupid by such remarks are the people who make the comments in the first place.
34 - It’s hardly surprising - although it’s a bit much coming from a party led by an old Fetesian (home to the worlds worst school uniform - honestly whoever thought pink and brown was a good combination) and soon to be led by the ex-boyfriend of the Princess of Romania!
40 - Pink and brown are the colours of my college too - disgusting.
I think inverted snobbery is ace. You can almost picture those who practice it stamping their feet and pouting like small children denied a second helping of ice cream.
Off topic, but am i alone in thinking that the likely elevation of William Hague will prove to be a mistake? (though I think it will get postive press)
1. Hague as Foriegn Secretary - will please the troops with red blooded euroscepticism, but it won’t make for serious policy- and is electorally meaningless- how many days are there left to save the pound?
2. If Cameraon wants to brand himself as a new Troy, linking with hague will massively undermine that. After all, It wil be easy to drive a wedge between any policy change and Hagues stated views.
3. conflicts of interest. Anyone who is earning £1million a year will hve a few.
4. Hague is a negative figure for most of the electorate. Is the big positive story of cameron’s takeover going to be the return of the Tories biggest loser? (I maintain that 2001 was a worse result for the tories than 1997)
Against this it can be said that Hague was unfairly maligned as leader, and is significnatly more popular now than he was then. Also, his asset as a parliamentary performer is significant for internal morale.
I’d suggest however, that it’s easy for people to be popular on the backbenches, writing books and appearing on TV programmes. It’s tougher when you’re a Shadow minister.
“If Cameron wants to brand himself as a new Troy”
Blimey, is that the plan?
Per Adam Boulton - Turnout 197,025 - just under 78%.
Mrs DC will be at the declaration. Mrs DD will not.
44. what meanings has the term “troy” in UK?
Here “troy” is tranlsated in “troia” which is also used as a synonymous for “sl*t”. That’s why we didn’t tranlate the title of the film “Troy”
32. Normal as compared to the ‘intensely Christian friend of Cliff Richard with the strange-looking wife on half a million a year who thinks God told his friend to invade Iraq’. Hm.
Cameron may be a toff - but he has the look of a normal dude, as well. That may be feigned or pretence, but that’s how he comes across. Crucial.
Brown, by contrast, comes across as a flipping loon with an ego the size of Cheshire. Should be interesting politics from here on in…
40. No lesser a man than Winston Leonard Spencer Churchill thought that pink and brown were a good combination - they were his racing silks!
48 - Even the best of us can get it wrong! Mind you racing silks are one thing but a school Blazer is quite another. The only uniform I can think of thats as bad or worse is that one off Rock School - can’t remember the name though.
Almost as bad as the football strip Scotland used to wear - yellow and salmon-pink hoops - based on the racing silks of the Earl of Roseberry.
with all this talk of pink and brown i keep thinking i’ve come into the wrong chat room.
Apart from the story about Brown sending all those on his present list a copy of David Halberstam’s The Best and the Brighest (from a joblot of remaindered copies he got on one of his US holidays), I love the story about him going to speak to some highly qualified engineers and saying ‘We couldn’t do without engineers - only the other day I needed one to fix my washing machine’ (!)
Among the non-political obsessives I know (especially floating voters) the words used of Brown are ‘dour’ and ‘lacking in people skills’.
As for the political types at university, there’s a very amusing account in Richard Eyre’s National Service of some Oxbridge party, where the Union crowd can be spotted straightaway, when they’re all gathered in a corner listening to CDs of Churchill’s Greatest Speeches. A friend of mine who went to Oxford from a working-class background is involved in politics now (she’s been a town councillor, stood for election to the district council, and will probably try to get on the Parliamentary Panel), but didn’t get involved in politics at Oxford because she felt the people who did were almost trying to live up (or down) to the stereotype of pompous young fogeys and hacks.
Re. 16, book value, I knew you’d mention that! The whole thing made me smile, particularly the reference to Mark Steel’s lethal wit (lethal wit, my a*se, as Jim Royle would say - just as with Rory ‘Disgusted of North London’ Bremner, all Steel’s jokes owe too much to midnight oil). Oddly enough, I generally find YAB less irksome these days than the likes of Madeleine Bunting and Master Hari.
Re. 27, Lewis, just the erudite reply I expected. It’s one of the more intriguing counter-factuals, particularly when Maudling would have been an excellent foil to Wilson. His ‘I say, that’s rather rum, Tory shop stewards spoiling Mr Wilson’s election, really!’ was a wonderful riposte to Wilson’s self-righteous paranoia over the Hardy Spicer industrial dispute which worried Wilson so much in the 64 election campaign. I think, for that reason alone (let alone even Sir Alec Douglas-Home coming within 900 votes of beating Wilson) that Maudling would have been beaten Wilson in 64.
The Best and the Brightest even…
46 Andrea. Troy is one those names beloved of the Vicky Pollard of that Ilk and also I think a character in the 60’s childrens series “Stingray”. Troy is also a weight in measuring gold and silver.
Looks like I owe Woody a large packet of crisps if the voter count is under 200,000 - I believed we had more members than that and had thought we might scrape 250,000 votes. Well done Woody - what flavour?
Only 78% turnout after all the hype and coverage, I can’t believe it. I suppose that a large number who paid their subs last January have died.
i have just recieved a txt from a friend who is a tory living in london, says the result is actually quite close.
don’t know wheather you can believe anything into this or not. it after all a subjective call he could consider 66% a close call
53 - so referring to people as “Vicky Pollards” is the lastest buzzword for those who like to sneer and pour derision on the working classes? Nice to see the same people who got off on the expressions “chav” and “ASBO” so much have now taken their lead from a dreadfully derivative and humourless sketch show beloved of the terminally dull.
47 - nope Cameron doesn’t look like a “normal dude”. He looks like quite a well balanced person comfortable in his own skin (which is great and a real asset) but he isn’t exactly the man on the Clapham omnibus. But he doesn’t need to be so that’s fine. Don’t try and saddle him with an “ordinary guy” tag - it didn’t do Tony any good in the end.
51 - I think, as you do, that Maudling would have won a 1964 election. Deployed properly, his riposte to Wilson’s ‘white heat of technology’ (that nationalisation and detailed planning was obsolete because of technological process) would have been convincing. He would also have dispelled the tawdry image that attached itself to the party in 1963 and prevented the Macleod/Home division from opening up. He might have won by, oh, 20-30 seats. Then what happens to Labour is interesting - do the Gaitskellites move on Wilson and either try to push him out or more probably force him to adopt their ideas? Labour would also presumably look at the revival of the SPD, policy renewal, relations with the Liberals, electoral reform… Perhaps resulting in an appeal at the 1969 election along the lines of ‘New Labour’. Just a thought.
57 Stonch. I fear it is you who is generalising ! Whether the individual is working class or not isn’t relevant. Indeed I dislike the pigeon holeing of individuals into social groups. However there is little doubt that there are some in society who fit the bill as Vicky Pollards admirably ….feckless young women with several children from several known or unknown, equally feckless fathers who treat their children and those around them with disdain and worse. A trip to the local shopping centre is all one needs to disabuse anyone that such Vicky Pollards do not exist.
As to the merits of “Little Britain” …. it’s surely the familiar, if overblown, characterizations that resonates with the public, whether the characters are poor or wealthy.
38. There are many of us who’d like to idle/lyse Gordon Brown.
Sitting back and saying nowt (or even muttering half-hearted ‘hear hear’s) about the hypocritical antics of Tory Bliar all these years while hoping to hear the date announced for his annointed succession is pretty creepy - especially since he, unlike Blair, cannot use the excuse that he was ignorant of the degree of unprincipled cant being operated.
Lead on MacDuff!
Can I have a bet on the Tory vote dropping at the next general election and what odds would I get?
60 Jack you are right - which is why a reprise of Harry Enfield’s Mr Nicebutdim might well be in order.
63 Zebidee. We may just get a reprise of Tim Nicebutdim very shortly !!
Davis 64,000, Cameron 134,000/ Just over 2/3 for Cameron
SeanT - “Cameron may be a toff - but he has the look of a normal dude, as well. That may be feigned or pretence, but that’s how he comes across. Crucial.”
No he doesn’t. He looks like what he is - a pink-cheeked, well fed, overbred toff. Normal my @rse.
over 67% in his favour, but a vote count of under 200,000
67.6%
67.6/32.4
65 - anticlimax? What anticlimax?
Re. 60, I agree entirely, Jack - the whole chav thing is about poking (deserved) fun at anti-social d*ckheads who think they’re cool when they wear Kapper Slapper gear, burberry caps, tracksuits, white baseball caps, and who make other people’s lives a misery through anti-social behaviour (including knocking on the ground floor windows of fellow tenants in housing association flats in the early hours, as they did in the first block of flats in which I lived). Many working-class people I know hate chavs as much (if not more) than I (as a lower middle-class person, with parents from a working-class background) do. The likes of Master Hari can wringe their hands about being horrible to these people when they don’t have to live with (or near) them (and aren’t woken up by these people at midnight, when they’re so pathetically self-important, and in love with the sound of their own noise, that they don’t bother knocking on the doors of their friends’ houses, but stand in the street whistling and bawling their names, thus waking the entire street up). That’s quite apart from other antics such as spitting in the street, using ten f words in every sentence on public transport in front of OAPS and children, beating up bus drivers if they’re asked to put their cigarettes out on non-smoking buses, or throwing tickets at those who (shock horror) dare to read a book on the bus.
It’s also worth mentioning that Little Britain offers a sharp satire on right-wing PC (or right-wing prejudice) through the two WI ladies who projectile vomit at the mention of ethnic minority surnames.
Well done YouGov. Their poll has been almost spot on.
Given that Davis has been portrayed as the loser all the way through the campaign proper, I think he’s done reasonably well. the unknown quantity now becomes just another untried Tory leader. I give him two years…
A pretty good result for YouGov it has to be said.
Good win for DC without DD being humiliated so a good outcome all round.
72 - Beat me too it Mike! All the better considering the relatively small sample they were working from (650-850 IIRC).
Sorry that should read wring.
I should add that, just as I dislike the chavs who do the things I mentioned, I dislike rugger buggers who think it amusing to put roadkill in the fridges of fellow students (if they want to drink each other’s urine out of pint pots, that’s up to them).
So it’s dislike of anti social-behaviour and bullying, intolerant morons, not dislike of the working-classes.
If you want to see real baiting of (and sneering at) working-class people, don’t watch Little Britain, just read the revolting rantings of Dr Theodore Dalrymple (the man who can’t stand train station announcers using flat a’s) or the equally vile Digby Anderson (the man who lamented in the pamphlet ‘All Oiks Now’ that it was now difficult to tell apart upper-class students from other students).
Where has Cameron borrowed the ‘Come and join us’ from? Michael Howard (though there are shades of George McGovern’s ‘Come home America’).
‘Yesterday’s men’ was a nice touch, throwing one of Old Labour’s election slogans in New Labour’s face (I knew the Tories would win the 92 election when I saw ‘Yesterday’s Man’ re. John Major on the front cover of the election day New Statesman).
76. Be careful, Richard - Stonch once labelled me an “awful social snob” for using the word “chav”.
Fully with you on rugger-buggers; well put.
Equally well done You Gov - remarkable accuracy (again).
conservatives.com website rebranded already….obviously an unexpected Cameron vistory at CCHQ!
77 Richard. The “come and join us” element was the only thing that grated ….It was a cross between the Sally Army and a sermon from the Vicar of Albion. A little too much tambourine for me !!
Cameroon - “… there’s something in the air, you can smell it …”
Yes David , but don’t forget the voters can detect political horse sh*t when they smell it !
Just seen this strange young man on the telly bidding to be Charles Kennedy’s succesor. Warm words and not a policy in site.
Tim Nicebutdim rules. Cool Ya? 198 thousand grannies can’t be wrong can they?
Well the Tories have now demonstrated (now and in 2003 when they defenestrated IDS) that they want to continue as a major political party.
Now they need to decide they are ready to govern.
mrs cameron’s no oil painting is she. good breeding i’m sure but she’s no sandra.
79 - Yep, I noticed that too! Wonder whether they had a Davis website ready and waiting…
Wow they did move fast on the website - lets hope all organisation is this good! Good to see the pres finally give us Conservatives a chance - lets hope it lasts.
ANDREA ALERT - Dinky is on BBC now…
79/84 - yes, there were 2 alternatives set up so they could get either up immediately - that kind of planning and speed of implementation when it comes to the party impresses me though - shows the changes over the past 2 years or so
Interesting to see that DC’s colours from his pamphlet was not just a decision to make it different to DD’s traditional colour scheme, but a conscious rebranding for the party that will now be used - will be interesting to see how people respond to this change, in the way they responded to the changes to Labour branding in the mid-90s
Should say re - 87 - got that from a CCHQ source just now
Hmm.. just to remind people about CHAV- it is a nickname from Cheltenham Ladies College- CHeltenham AVerage. I had not previously been aware that the Cheltenham Average was considered to be so low… but certain Ladies of the college apparently beleive that it is so.
Perhaps we can judge Mr. Crooked Nose -for, such, dear English friends, does Camm Shron (Cameron) mean- by his friends…
85 James. For heavens sake, don’t rely on the media !! They’re as fickle and perfidious as ever ! They’ll fall over themselves to write and speak about the wheel falling off the Cameron’s shiny new Tory wagon.
The connection must be with the middle ground and floating voters. If Cameron gets that right he’s in with half a shout.
76 - ooh - I HATE people using long ‘a’s in place names.
Actually, that’s overstating it massively. People in a pub in Sussex can call it what they like, I’m all for regional accents - but it grates when the BBC refers to the cities of Newcarstle and Glarsgow. Even Bath, in a West Country voice is more Baath than Barth. And the country the England cricket team are currently touring is Pakistan, not Parkistarn - that’s just over-compensating.
89 - ooh - That’s interesting. I never knew that.
theresa villiers’ chin…
i’d never paid attention to these people before
92 - she was on earlier on as well. They seem to choose rather cruelly chin-lengthening angles.
I know Jack W - but let me have an hour of optimism for a while! I can then prepare myself to defend the party and help it change to win - to coin a phrase!
Any potential merger/alliance between the Tories and your Jacobites Jack W now?
Cameron
as a Highland clan name it is from a nickname from Gaelic cam ‘crooked’, ‘bent’ + sròn ‘nose’.
92 mac. Is she related to Jimmy Hill ?
87/88 - I’m not sure whether we should rush to too many conclusions regarding the rebranding. What’s on the website now is a bit of a bodge with bits and pieces still off the old Howard brand. I reckon if Cameron does want to rebrand, which I personally don’t think is such a good idea, he might wish to take a bit more time and care to sort things out properly.
Well 6 months thousand of words spoken and written , lots of money spent on the voting process when all they had to do was follow my recommendation back in June that DC was the best of a poor bunch . Will recommend his replacement in around 2 years time .
76&78 - As someone whose played rugby since primary school and who is currently considering a come back - I feel I have to stick up for rugby players. It does seem to attract a large number of tossers but some quite nice people too!
And I’ve honestly never seen anyone drink their own urine - a bucket of sick on the other hand . . . .
94 James M. I this evening will preside at a meeting of the Jacobite Cabinet and shall have further such meetings later today.
I await Cameron’s policy on the Jacobite restoration, which is clearly a fundamental issue to the voters up and down the land !
Fraser Kemp - gives the Labour attack line - Cameron has no policies, he is all style (cough ironic cough), he said he has done nothing to change the party (leader for one hour) and has said Cameron is planning £12 billion cuts (how did he get that from the vague sharing proceeds statement?).
98 Mark Senior LOL one !!
99 Max. LOL too !!
Patrick McLaughlin - new Chief Whip. Thought we would wait for a while.
Patrick McLoughlin to be new Tory Chief Whip !
Impressive redo on the website I wonder if they had to mock up a DD one as well…
101 - Fraser Kemp - I like him a lot
89 - its not. You’re wrong.
103 James. Bugger …. you type quickly …. and I nearly put Patrick McGoohan of “The Prisioner” fame !!
Yougov Poll tested 1612 people yesterday and today for Sky:
Conservative - 38% (Under DC)
Labour - 33% (Under Brown)
Lib Dems - 18% (Under Kennedy)
I like this Sky Correspondent - he seems strangely positive about the Conservatives and slamming the Lib Dems as going nowhere!
New YouGov poll done yesterday (sample 1,612):
If leaders are Brown, Cameron and Kennedy how would you vote:
Con 38
Lab 33
LD 18
If Cameron were new leader of Conservative party would you be more or less likely to vote Conservative:
More 14%
Less 9%
No difference 63%
109 James M. Yes, but with all the positive coverage for Cameron those numbers equate to a hung parliament ….. dangerous for the Tories.
Aye it does Jack W - I do not want the Lib Dems propping us up and I am highly sceptical of PR.
What is key for Cameron is to keep up this positive attitude. A large part of the general public dont care for politics in any depth and like to feel good and optimistic about voting and get wrapped up in a moment - that is key.
“but don’t forget the voters can detect political horse sh*t when they smell it !”
LOL! Unfortunately many of the voters seem quite happy with political horseshit.
112 - Agreed, there was always going to be a bit of a bounce - but one poll - albeit by a company with a good track record - tells us very little. And as you rightly point out takes us only to a hung parliament.I’m very glad he’s won but he remains largely untested and I think the next 6 months will be telling.
111. Does anyone have a link to that story / poll? Being the polar opposite of Andrea in researching terms I can’t see it.
Best thing about today’s result will be the final demise of John Redwood from front bench politics.
72. …correct Mike, a good result for Yougov…..and another disaster for Populus, remember their poll showing Davis ahead? The one they later tried to disown? what a bunch of twerps they are. The opinion poll on voting looks quite promising - when was the last 5 point Tory lead? We mustn’t get carried away of course, it is only a start.
113 James. Correct, that dreaded mood music is important.
114 Sean. You really shouldn’t discount the 33% of the electorate who voted Conservative ! … I’m sure their sense of smell will recover ! ….. Btw do I sense that chez Fear isn’t popping the Krug presently ??
115 Max. Spot on. By the locals we’ll all have a feel for the way that Cameron is being received in the country …. do the voters see him as the real deal or a real tosspot ??
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news Mike L but the sky news poll had Labour on 38 and tories on 33. 62% said change of tory leader would make no difference to how they would vote.
(just joking of course)
111. If yer aunty was yer uncle…
You can’t deny that the Tories have had acres of free positive coverage (and that Cameron has used the opportunity (unlike his opponent) well).
But the hype and hubris displayed on this now overwhelmingly Tory site is hardly representative of the country at large.
The facts are Cameron has a mountain to climb. The Lib Dems show little sign of collapse and a Brown premiership is in the wings with the concomitant honeymoon boost (regardless of posters on this site trashing him).
It’s not the beginning of the end of this government - it’s not even the end of the beginning - it may simply be another chapter in the soap opera that is the Tory leadership.
Cameron has a huge amount of work to do to answer the question ‘Where’s the beef?’.
Dan - very few non-Tories on this site have given Cameron any credit. It’s no better to proclaim him the new messiah than to right him off before he’s even started. As for the site being overwhelmingly Tory - it used to be overwhelmingly Lib Dem and I didn’t here people complaining then. Is it really that surprising that more Tories are interested in the Tory leadership than members of others paries?
“when was the last 5 point Tory lead”
Funny enough, Yougov produced a 5% Tory lead straight after the October 2003 conference which, in the circumstances, I found unbelievable.
Jack, I can’t say that I find the result a surprise. I hope (quite sincerely) that my reservations about David Cameron will prove unfounded.
Dan @123 That there now rather more Tories on the site - I can remember those lonely days when only Sean Fear and I were about the only ones waving the dark blue banner high
- is undeniable. But I don’t think your accusation of “hype and hubris” is really justified. There are exceptions of course but the clear majority of Tories here actually agree with your statement that “there is a a mountain to climb”.
IMHO, as a Kuddly Ken Camer(l)oonie, electing DC as leader is a necessary condition for substantive progress, but is demonstrably not sufficient in itself.
Re 113. James there we go again, if as you all hope the Lib dems get reduced to 30 or so, very doubtful, perhaps 50-1 bet, then any co-alition to form a government may have to a be a Labour/Conservative one, viz Germany.
Keep saying everyone may have to start thinking beyond the traditional approach.
The voters may be prepared to do it, are the activists whether blue, orange, red. Somewhere the nationalists may be involved as well.
123 Dan. I don’t disagree with you too much ….. but surely we must allow the Tories a moment in the sun once or twice every four years …. you can’t have it your way all the time Dan … let’s not be too churlish !
This is an excellent result for the Conservative Party and for the country. David Cameron has won a tremendous victory and now begins the difficult task of changing our party and removing this tired and divided Labour government from office.
Certainly, Mr Cameron’s margin gives him a very broad mandate to modernise the party and return us to our long tradition of electoral success.
My compliments to David Davis on a very well fought campaign and on a gracious and forward looking concession today. I’m sure his many talents will be put to good use by our new leader.
There is undoubtedly a long road yet to travel, as DC said himself in his acceptance speech but I can say with all sincerity that I haven’t felt this upbeat and optimistic as a Conservative in (too) many years. I think there is all to play for over the next four years and that the Conservative Party is finally coming back!
Onward and Upward!
Im sure YouGov were pretty much spot on in the last leadership campaign. Why was there any doubt about their accuracy this time?
127 - Very, very few activisits I know would want a coalition. I’m very much a Tory ‘wet’ but I don’t see sufficient common ground with any of the other parties.
Allthough should Kilroy form another party I may have to reconsider my position!
125 Sean. Like you I’m prepared to give Cameroon a fair wind … but the question you rightly infer …. is DC full of wind ?! We’ll see. Of course as one of the few Cubans (non-alligned) on the site, I’ll also give the House of GB a viewing, when the time comes ….. unlike your good self !!
111- a rise in the Tory vote and a drop in LD vote leading to hung parliament with the LDs the swing I assume? As a Lib Dem, what an excellent result that would be- the LDs in charge!
I think Cameron will give the Tories a bounce- but for how long? Doesn’t this happen every time a new leader is elected for a party?
In about 6 months I think we will have a real idea about whether this risk has paid off. I think that it could well work (though those poll numbers are unsafe as they were taken on a day with totally negative Brown news and totally positive Cameron news).
129 AHM. You are such a crawler Alistair !! … the peerage must be in sight !!
121. No it did not. It was Con 38, Lab 33 as per posts 109 and 111. I’m sure many other people on here also saw it.
135 - It’s OK Mike Eric put ‘just joking’ under his first post!
It was a bit worrying for a moment though!
133 - Totally agree Tim the first 6 months are crucial. And I don’t think we can deduce too much before that.
134 -
I really want that peerage Jack!!
Jack, Our Undisputed Leader of Men from Beaconsfield is actually Alastair (as in Burnett not Darling, darling)
138 - Thanks for that, John. I’d given up on correcting them myself.
I shall be in touch with your via email later on hopefully. I’ve been dragooned into dinner out tonight and I fear I shall have to depart soon….
Obviously very hypothetical but if you put Con 38, Lab 33, LD 18 into Baxter you get:
Con 289, Lab 300, LD 26
Then adjust for the new boundaries (Con +11, Lab -7) gives:
Con 300, Lab 293, LD 26
The new number required for an overall majority is 326 so Con + LD would make it by just one seat. Lab + LD would be short.
137 AHM. As I know Alistair, it’s not all beer and skittles being a knob !! Quieten down out there !! …… think of the cost of the ermine … normally rabbit ! and your Baron’s coronet … so heavy on the barnet ! ….. not to mention rubbing knee breeches with Lords Archer, Black et al …. such a vulgar place now the Hereds are largely gone !!
More details on that YouGov/Sky News poll
139 - Alastair - many apologies - just realised I spelled your name wrong in my e-mail. No one ever gets mine wrong funnily enough.
My Liege @139, Me too…I await your commands with fealty and supplication
Alastair, its a bit too soon to say whether or not today’s result is excellent for the Conservative Party. Cameron does come over well on TV and seems to be saying the right things about modernising etc etc, but I’m sure I’ve heard the same things before from Hague and IDS. Interestingly the one thing Cameron said in his victory speech that drew no response whatsoever was the phrase “i’m proud of my country as it is today, not as it used to be”. Not a titter. I think he may find that he has a fight on his hands.
138/139 John O./Alastair. Sorry sweetie …. apologies Mi Lord …. already off for dinner with DC I see !!
140 Mike L. Those Baxter figures should carry a Voter Health Warning ie: They are bollocks !!
141 - Sounds like a jolly good time, Jack!
143 - No worries, Max. I’ll respond to either. ;o)
144 -
Interestingly, the Sky poll (taken yesterday and today by YouGov) shows a tie (Lab 36 Con 36) on ‘how would you vote tomorrow?’ This is an insignificant 1% swing to the Tories from the previous YouGov poll, suggesting that the PBR coverage had no particular effect either way. It then prompts with “How would you expect to vote in 2009 if Brown/Cameron/Kennedy were the leaders?” This produces the 38-33 result, i.e. a further 2.5% swing, though it’s got the usual problems of hypothetical polls. This looks plausible, and I’d expect it to go a bit higher than that with further heavy coverage of Cameron in the next few days, then slip back, with a small Tory lead in early January. If it stays in that range I don’t feel very worried - yet.
140 - Mike - is that a tool that’s available on the internet? Where?
123 - Dan - yes, the Tories are nowhere near forming a government yet. But compare this moment with the election of IDS four years ago - when we all realised that Labour could do pretty much what it liked for the forseeable future. That’s why the site’s full of happy Tories.
145 - Martin. I suppose time will tell, won’t it? For my part, I think we’ve taken a huge step forward as a party today and we’ve got every right and reason to be optimistic.
Cicero Chav is either Romany or realted to ‘Chatham girls’. As the Romany for a boy is chavo that seems the best bet to me.
As for Churchill having racing colours of pink and brown was he not colour blind in red/green, and it got him in hot water in the Boer war (I can’t find the reference at the moment)?
The game is now on. But I’d sooner be in Brown’s shoes at this stage. He has the advantage of incumbency (or will have). And so far, all the real damage to DC has come from in-house. You can bet the NuLab attack dogs are primed to pounce. Will doubtless be brutal and bloody. Suggest it will be interesting times!
A couple more findings from the Sky News poll:
Next PM
43% think Gordon Brown is more likely to be PM after the next election
19% think Cameron more likely
29% say it could go either way.
Silver Spoon
According to those asked, David Cameron’s biggest weak point is his privileged background.
45% agree that being an old Etonian means he can’t understand what it’s like for most people to grow up in Britain these days
37% don’t think that is an issue.
polls that show labour ahead, tory ahead, a tie, or anything else are an utter waste of time 4 years from an election.
152. I’m not sure how much the incumbancy factor will help Brown. The assumption is that he’ll get a honeymoon period as well as benefit from the trappings of office, but I’m not convinced of either. The historical parallels seem closer to Callaghan succeeding Wilson or Douglas-Home succeeding Macmillan, rather than Thatcher/Major - Major was still quite unknown when he took over and crucially promised abolition of the Poll Tax. Brown will be Mr Continuity on policy. Is there any polling data on what effect the 1976 / 1963 changes had on the parties’ support?
154 Bally Rric For once you are right (he is). The polls will go up and the polls will go down (sing it to the theme for ‘Those Magnificent Men’).
The only real significance of this latest poll is that it shows a Tory lead for the first time in ages. Pleasant but unlikely yet to be permanent.
fair point blue 2 win
This is clearly an excellent result for Cameron, it’s a landslide victory and the Tories have made the right choice. Finally they have taken the Portillo option, even if it is Portillo Lite. Cameron was the one leadership candidate who really understood that the Tories have to extend their reach and build a modern coalition of support to win an election.
However, what we still don’t know is whether he will have the strength of character to force the party to change. With 68% he certainly has a mandate but in reality it may prove difficult to get the parliamentary party singing from the same small ‘l’ liberal hymn sheet if the going gets tough.
The comparison to Blair is obvious, and I think that like Blair he needs to challenge is party. It will be illustrative to see whether he uses this huge win to push through party reform and creates a Clause 4 moment, say on All-Women short lists or goes for a more cautious gradualist approach. Personally I’m not entirely sure Cameron is a true believer in the reform agenda he espouses and I suspect he may bauckle under pressure, but thats just a gut feeling and I may be entirely wrong.
Anyway, the jury’s out on what kind of leader Cameron will be and will remain so for some time. On the poll question, it’s pretty worthless having a poll about a hypothetical situation that may not happen for 2 or 3 years, and would probably take place in very different ciurcumstances. That said it would be very surprising if there wasn’t a bounce in Tory support as a result of Cameron’s election, which I would expect to come from both other parties. I wouldn’t though expect it to be very big 3-5% and too last all that long, not least because I’m sure there will be a(n equally short) bounce in Labour’s vote if & when Brown succeeds Blair. As for the LDs, they we probably be squeezed somewhat during this Parliament but are obviously not collapsing and as the next election apporaches and people start thinking about the prospect of a hung Parliament they will start to gain the publicity they need to hold their ground.
In short, politics is getting interesting again.
156. The rest of the song:
The polls will go up and the polls will go down,
They’ll delight Cameron and depress Gordon Brown;
Or reverse themselves so it’s the Tories who’re blue,
Are they accurate? Ah well, if only we knew!
Blue2Win @ 151: I don’t know about ‘chav’, though that sounds plausible; but ‘cicero’ means ‘chickpea’.
149. Cookie - sorry for the delay in replying. Please see the link below:
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/index.html
Click on “Make your prediction” in the left hand column.
159 David H Nice one, but you missed out the chorus of’Up tiddly up, the down diddly down’ if I transcribe correctly. So right for politics.
I just wonder how many politicians are like my favourite character fondly remembered from the film, the determined and honourable Prussian in the pickelhaube helmet, reading a fly-it-yourself manual while heading unerringly for the sewage farm.
That film has more politics about it than meets the eye.
Re. 114, Sean, ‘you can’t fool all of the people all of the time, but do it once and you’re in for four years’.
Re. 100, and the rugger buggers, Max, fair enough, good point. When the Oxford graduates I know complained about rugger buggers, I don’t think they were saying that all rugby players are like that, they were just referring to a certain ‘hearty’ subgroup who do stuff such as leaving roadkill in communal fridges in halls of residence, and leaving clingfilm on the top of toilet seats in the middle of the night. While I get a bit fed up with some rugby fans who slag off football (I like watching either, and have both Ireland football and rugby shirts), I get the impression that there have been few (if any) rugby matches where fans kick each other’s heads in afterwards, or where the spectators shout at the players ‘I hope your kid dies of cancer’.
163 - Yeah I know what you mean Richard. ‘Hearty’ is a very polite euphamism for some of them!
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