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Month: December 2005

Blair boosted by polls showing Brown as a vote loser

Blair boosted by polls showing Brown as a vote loser

PB.C’s Blair Survival Index rises to 28% The second poor poll rating in five days on how a Brown-led Labour party would do against Cameron’s Conservatives has led to changes in the betting markets on when the Prime Minister will stand aside. As the chart shows the implied probability of a post 2007 departure reflected by the way punters are risking their cash has moved sharply upwards as the whole UK political scene is re-assessed following the Tory changes and…

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Book now for the second PB.C party

Book now for the second PB.C party

The date-January 14th: The venue – a pub in Central London: The time – 6pm Thanks to the generosity of Tony Blair’s pollster, Philip Gould, we are able to announce the second Politicalbetting party. This will take place at a pub in Central London on Saturday January 14th from 6pm. The picture above shows Book Value (Philip Grant – the party organiser and the site’s stand-in editor) with Robert Smithson – my son who keeps the site going. This will…

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ICM give Tories their biggest share since 1993

ICM give Tories their biggest share since 1993

.. ICM and YouGov put the Tories into the lead Two new polls for tomorrow’s Sunday papers show that the Tories are now ahead. ICM in the Sunday Telegraph has with changes on the last survey from the pollster in November CON 37%(+4): LAB 35%(-3)LD 21%(+2). YouGov has, with changes on the poll that was published in Tuesday afternoon CON 37%(+1): LAB 36%(nc):LD 18%(nc). For David Cameron and his team the ICM figures must be particularly pleasing. Excluding the extraordinary…

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Is Andrew Neil right about Kennedy going?

Is Andrew Neil right about Kennedy going?

Who would become the next Lib Dem leader? In his “This Week” programme on BBC 1 late on Thursday night the veteran political commentator and ex-Sunday Times editor, Andrew Neil, made this statement – “I have heard that Charles Kennedy will stand down at the Lib Dems Spring Conference” This does not appear to have been picked up elsewhere and although there has been much discussion on the position of the Lib Dems in the David Cameron era the suggestion…

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Do Gordon\’s personality ratings matter?

Do Gordon\’s personality ratings matter?

Can he win if people don’t like him? Tucked away in the YouGov poll that came out on Tuesday afternoon were some numbers that might be at the heart of the Labour succession and the 2009/10 General Election campaign. Electors might agree with Gordon Brown’s policies, they might respect him as a politician but they do not seem to like him. When asked whether four named politicians had “an attractive personality” the ratings were:- David Cameron 23%: Tony Blair 18%:…

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What\’s happened to Populus and the Times?

What\’s happened to Populus and the Times?

Was the coverage of the poll that moved the markets a step too far? Since December 2002, almost without exception, the Times has published the regular Populus poll on the Tuesday of the first full week of the month. So far this December there has been no Populus poll in the paper and yesterday the BBC produced a survey from the pollster on the Today programme. Was that survey originally intended for the Times? Looking at the detailed data it…

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How was the Great Gamble for you?

How was the Great Gamble for you?

Did you cash in on Cameron? The Times leads this morning with the headline “The Great Gamble” but it’s not about betting but whether the Tory choice of David Cameron is going to work. For me “The Great Gamble” consisted of the scores of betting contracts I entered into on the contest since May. With Guido expressing concern about one of the markets that I called wrongly can I reassure those concerned about my financial welfare that Cameron’s victory left…

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YouGov: Cameron’s Tories 38 – Brown’s Labour 33

YouGov: Cameron’s Tories 38 – Brown’s Labour 33

Poll boost as Cameron starts the leadership cycle A YouGov poll taken yesterday and today for Sky News has with changes on the last survey from the pollster last month CON 36: LAB 36: LD 18 The survey comes on good day for the controversial internet pollster. YouGov’s final poll of Tory members for the leadership contest was within one per cent. To another question in in the latest poll “The next general election will probably not be held until…

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