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So is it down to two?

January 26th, 2006

    So what are we to make of the incident-packed Lib Dem leadership race now?

Each day something new seems to be happening and keeping up with the betting has become a nightmare. After switching big funds into Hughes yesterday I became part of the exodus early this morning.

In the aftermath of Mark Oaten I felt that the loser would be Hughes – only to have that view confounded by yesterday’s ICM poll.

Now, as every bulletin focuses on this morning’s revelation, the only thing going for the party president is that the serious media is leading on the Palestine election but with him only a bit behind.

I cannot see Hughes recovering from this. The only question is what will be the impact on the voting with the AV system that the party employs.

The betting has swung to Ming with Huhne back in the second favourite slot. My guess is that Hughes will now come in third place with 20-25% of the first choices. Huhne will get 30-35% with Campbell on 40% plus.

The leadership will be decided by how Hughes’s second preferences split. Huhne will need the majority of them to be for him and he could just do it.

But who knows what will be in the Murdoch press in the coming days?

Mike Smithson






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