Punters think it’s down to Campbell and Huhne
February 3rd, 2006
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YouGov could settle it within a few days
There’ve been big moves in the Lib Dem leadership betting following the claims by Camp Campbell that Chris Huhne had reneged on a deal not to stand and a confident performance by the ex-MEP on Question Time last night.
The latest prices have Campbell out from 0.5/1 to 0.72/1 with Huhne in from 3/1 to less than 2/1. The backers have been moving further away from Simon Hughes who has drifted to more than 9/1.
The suggestion that Huhne is standing after telling Campbell he would not seems to have done the 64 year old more harm than good. That this should be raised is being seen as a weakness. It is as though he expected to win this as of right and lacks, perhaps, the killer instinct that seems to be a key quality required of those who put themselves forward to lead their party.
The waiting could soon be over. YouGov are carrying out a members’ poll which should be in one of the papers at the weekend. Given the remarkable accuracy of the firm’s Tory membership surveys punters are well advised to take notice.
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It will be recalled that the final YouGov survey got the Cameron-Davis result to within just one per cent and allowed the internet pollster to repeat its remarkable performance in the 2001 IDS race.
The online format should allow the pollster to find out the second preferences and produce a reasonably good overall prediction. Assuming that the punters are getting this right and Hughes is really out of it then a lot could depend on where his second preferences go.
This is very tight and I have continued to ensure that I win whether it is Campbell or his younger challenger.
Betfair has opened a betting exchange market on the order of the result. Who will come top and who will come second? So far there are few takers and little betting value. Thus Campbell/Huhne is currently priced at 1.41 when you can get 1.7 on Campbell alone.
Mike Smithson
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It surely comes down to second preferences, Mike, doesn´t it? Lib Dems are faced with a very difficult choice: all the candidates are very good and would - in their different ways - make excellent leaders. As various Lib Dem commentators on this site have made clear, their first preference has changed as the leadership campaign has developed. I think the second choice candidates will have “wobbled” even more. I think that I am fairly clear that my first choice will be Chris Huhne, as it has been since nominations closed, but my second preference is much less certain and has changed over the last few days (and may change back again). So - rejoice, rejoice - PBCers have everything still to play for.
And somebody, way back, was thinking that everything was going to be very dull once the ever-lasting Tory leadership campaign was out of the way…..
Sorry - forgot the punch line - So it will be very difficult for YouGov to predict the final result this far out, I think.
I agree there is a long way to go in this race. I’m sure a large proportion of the membership still have no idea who Chris Huhne is.
btw, was it not possible to find a better picture of Campbell?
…..I’m sure a large proportion of the membership still have no idea who Chris Huhne is…..
Which surely means that he will almost certainly increase support as the contest continues. So do we add to his tally in the You Gov poll to get a better idea?
In a two horse race second preferences are irrelevant. Sorry Simon its a two horse race.
1. The second preferences will only matter for those backing Simon Hughes (or whoever finishes third, but it’s looking that way) - the rest won’t get counted.
We don’t know that it is a two horse race, though YouGov might shortly tell us so.
How are Lib Dems going down in Dunfermline? The Herald suggests Ming has been stirring up apathy (and Cameron was greeted by a lot of eager voters who turned out to be bussed-in Tory students: oops). Any reports from the front?
Icarus at 5: Do you have a bar chat for us?
For those remotely interested both the Scotsman and the Herald have a fair bit of coverage on the Dunfermline by-election.
Lib Dems may be embarressed by the Suffolk County Council result at Stowmarket. Must be in serious danger of dropping to fourth behind the Greens. Lib Dem pollled 22.3% in May, general election average in third place, see where they end up today. Greens had 12%. Would expect Cons to consolidate and break away into a strong, very strong lead.
Just an aside, was it my incorrect peception, but watching Huhne last night, he seemed stronger and more assertive than when he appeared a few weeks ago.
re 10. Huhne was much better last night but he does have a David Davis-like tendency to errrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr and errrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.
It was amazing how a bit of training transformed Davis. Maybe that’s what Huhne needs.
As for the pictures, 3, afer finding Huhne with the cat on his knee I felt I had to find a less-flattering picture of Ming for “balance”.
What I want to know is why Chris Huhne is sitting on the lap of another fella ?! What a pussy.
And that picture of Ming
…. looks like he’s using embalming fluid rather than the old spice !!
What do you think of this result from South Ayrshire, Max? Does the independent now hold the balance of power on the council?
Brian Connolly Independent 408 27.70% (+27.70%)
Ann Galbraith Conservative 407 27.63% (-00.32%)
Sandra Goldie Labour 342 23.22% (-23.70%)
Bill McCubbin SNP 316 21.45% (+00.96%)
Independent majority of 1 over Conservative.
Turnout = 50.95% (+4.03%)
3 rejected ballot papers (I bet those were hotly contested!)
12 Moi. Moderated again
…. it’s the curse of Mrs. Slocombe’s pu*sy again !!
12 - It’s dissapointing not to win (especially by 1 vote) but not a bad result as the independent was a pretty popular figure in the community. So far as I know he won’t hold the balance of power. Any tied result is settled by the casting vote of the Lord Provost, who is a Tory.
13 Sean. Still with us Sean ?? …. after Rickitts at QT last night, we thought you might have slashed your wrists and gone to that great 1936 conservative conference in the sky ??
Ayrshire South
…. 3 spoiled ballot papers from the Chingford Wing of the Ayrshire South Conservative Association .
11. Watching Huhne on QT last night it wasn’t just his errrr, errr that reminded me of Davis, I think he has the same problem in other ways too; - he is obviously ‘on top of his brief’ he is bright and likeable; but he lacks that certain x factor that is needed in this media age to be, how can I put this, memorable.
It’s extra tough for the Lib dems to fight their way through the tree cover to get their oxygen of publicity as it is.
I am not sure that Huhne will help them get heard outside the slightly closed world of politics.
Labour were the only ones embarrassed in Stowmarket:
Stowmarket South
Conservative 733 votes 35.0% +0.4%
Lib Dem 668 votes 31.9% +9.9%
Green 358 votes 17.1% + 5.0%
Labour 337 votes 16.1% -15.0%
Majority 65 votes 3.1%
Swing 4.7% Con to Lib Dem
Looks like a pretty good Lib Dem result to me.
I note we had an Ayrshire South moment on the previous thread with 561 votes against the previous days record of 559 ….. and Andrea absented himself for most of yesterday morning, otherwise the majority would have been substantially larger ….. such laxity !! ….. mind you we still haven’t had the Birmingham post(al)votes for Wednesday yet !!
3-Russell LD
‘I’m sure a large proportion of the membership still have no idea who Chris Huhne is.’
What’s the story regarding Huhne being an ex MEP, did he lose his seat in 2004, retire,deselected?
I’m surprised by the negative feedback of Huhne’s performance on last night’s QT. Have to say I thought he was very good (but I’m still backing Ming) - and he got a very good reception from the audience. I didn’t notice any Davies-esque err…ing myself.
From a betting POV, I’d have thought today’s the day to put some money on Simon. My guess is the YouGov survey will show him doing a lot better than some seem to think he is, and that’s bound to tighten his price.
20 - No story. He stood down on selection to fight his parliamentary seat.
17. Marcus- get over yourself with the Lib Dems already!
Actually Huhne was pretty good. Does need a bit of work, but clearly pretty promising- and knows his stuff (perhaps even a little too well). Gillan was a bit mumsy and not particularly inspiring, Morgan was demented in that slightly sinister old Labour way- and talk about out of touch with the audience! Surprised that Rickett was allowed out by his Mum- bless!
18 - Labour dropped from a close 2nd to 4th place .
21 - Comments on Huhne at QT on here were generaslly favourable and the obviuos antipathy of Rik W is another big bonus in his favour . My inclination is edging ever more in his direction as my 1st choice .
Result from Aylesbury Vale - a genuine two horse race (not a Lib Dem pretend one!)
Conservative - 557
Lib Dem - 322
And the previously unnopposed ward in Fenland - Con Hold
Tory - 264
LD - 136
Ind - 136
Ind - 39
Lab - 12
Excuse me if I’ve overlooked this, but when will the You Gov results be released?
QT was a weak panel for Chris to compete against but most of the remarks I’ve seen rated him well.
Dunfermline reports eagerly awaited.
7: I was at Dunfermline yesterday on the Walkabout with CK — very amusing the press were nearly killing each other to get a good picture. Good LD turnout, lots from Edinburgh, and the ladies who said they “loved charles” were not plants as claimed by the Herald — great article though, very amusing
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/55545.html
As for the predictions is seems very mixed, the constituency itself is a real patchwork — LD canvas returns were apparently good though, contrary to what was said elsewhere in the herald. The SNP poll was very dodgy apparently — they have a few wards very strong personal support for good councilors.
1. and others. I agree that Lib Dems face a difficult choice; but really, honestly, does anybody think it’s because the candidates are all good and would make excellent Leaders?
I hope that I’m able to put aside my partisan feelings in assessing the quality of Tory politicians, and I’d like to hope that Lib Dems can put aside their feelings when assessing their own “leading politicians”; all three choices are terrible. I’ve always been convinced that Ming was unbeatable because at least he had something - not much - but something about him. Now I accept that Huhne might have a chance - but it seems his great advantage is that no-one knows him and so they ‘re projecting on to him all their dreams and inspirations.
If this is the the best the Lib Dems have to offer they’re in terrible trouble. (Of course it isn’t the best they have to offer, there are three MPs that I know of who would each be a better Leader than any one of these three; but they’re all inexplicably backing Ming).
I’m fairly certain Chris Huhne was relected as an MEP in 2004 and remained one till just after the general election last May when he was elected as an MEP. Because of the (dreadful) list system there was no byelection and the no 3 on the lib dem list replaced him automatically.
I do agree with stephen tall that on spread betting thingy it would be a good time to buy simon. I think this site really underestimates how well hes doing. I’m not saying hes going to win just that i think an accurate members poll will show him doing better than his cuurrent price shows.
31. I don’t understand your first paragraph at all but I’m with you on the second. I think the You Gov survey will show much higher support for Hughes than people here expect and his odds will shorten considerably.
readingliberal@28
I think Huhne did put in a strong performance and it can have only helped his bid.
Anyone know what time the betting markets started to move against Ming? If late last night it could have been QT rather than leaked rage from Ming camp that caused the move.
Is R4 still doing the hustings Any Questions? It’s not tonight if they are.
Nick (8), No bar chart but I because I said I would help Ming’s campaign I was sent some leaflets (bar chart free) with a note that said the rules of the campaign did not allow them to send any addresses but would I distribute them as best as I could but as I dont even have the list of the thousands of members in my consituency - (Sid and Doris Lloyd George) not quite sure what to do with them!
sorry my last post should have said “elected as an MP”. Haven’t been to dumferline but since I posted on this subject yesterday i have had further very odd emails from the party which i don’t belive they would be sending unless they genuinely thoight it was closish.
as for russell at 30. well it pains me to say it but he is right. can any lib dem really say that Hughes,Campbell and Huhne is a better choice than Davey, Clegg and Laws?
There is still a small part of me that wants to put Huhne No1 simply because he has had the guts to stand.
The Stowarket result is indeed good for the Lib Dems and follows the recent two other results since the New Year in the East Anglia, Cambridge area. May suggest they will do quite well in Dunfermaline
I thought It was an underwhelming performance from Huhne on QT- he had no serious competition on that panel and was gifted a week in which he could answer questions on Iraq ,the Environment and civil Liberties. Bread and Butter to A Lib dem
He was even helped by Rhodri Morgans breathtaking Display of self mutilation, that as far as I could tell was completely unnecessary.
He gave predictable answers that got applause but any lib dem could have done the same in that situation, 1 nil isnt enough when youve been given several open goals
32. yes my post at 31 is a bit of a dogs breakfast. i’m suggesting that Chris Huhne was a MEP from 99 to 05 having been reelected in 04. He resigned his Euro seat just after being elected to the commons last may. Because of our list system PR for the Euros there was no by election but the next lib dem on the lib dem list gets to serve the rest of his term. He was top of the list, emma nicholson was number 2 and also elected so it went to no 3 a sharon bowles who has returned the favour by backing him for leader, unlike the dear Baroness!
33. the Any Questions? special was last week.
36: Its not against the bounds of possibility — there seems to be genuinely pleasant surprise in Dunfermline as how well the LD vote was holding up.
38. Thanks, all clear now.
WRT QT last night, I thought Huhne was fairly good from a technocratic point of view, but very much reminded me of John Redwood, albeit a centrist one. He is a “nice” enough man, but I don’t think he really comes across as “personable”, and does have a slightly detached sense to him. Was very convincing on Iraq, unlike the silly Plaid girl.
I though Ricketts veered wildly between vacuous and sensible. Potentially articulate of the “man on the street”, unsure about the value in the Commons. However there are plenty of MPs, including almost all the women on the Labour front bench since 1997, of whom I would say that!
And Rhodri Morgan was just commically awful on the subject of Iraq - in the very worst tradition of Blairitse trying to sell a party line at the expense of divulging information. The way he kept banging on about MPs being given the vote over the war - “it was never given before, not even in the Boer War” - was particularly cringeworthy. I don’t follow Welsh politics much, but this guy is a complete joker.
anatole - nice to see patronising sexism is still thriving in today’s ‘modern compassionate’ Tory party.
39 2jamie. An early indication of the Lib Dems performance in D & FW will be the Betfair market …. little movement in a slow market but also if the local independent bookies in the seat start to pull in the price. Any posters in the area might care to look at the latter for us.
FWIW I’m not detecting any media vibe for Willie …. yet !
I’ve been doing some telephone canvassing for Ming… and Simon is doing very well. Not a big enough sample (and all West Country rural voters so far) to be absolutely sure but he is just ahead of Ming.
43. Perhaps Anatole thinks most of Labour’s post-’97 female front bench team, as individuals, are unsure about the value of the Commons, irrespective of them being women.
Should he keep this view silenced simply because these politicians are women?
perhaps anatole is just a patronising sexist more likely.
44: Should have looked in the high street… learning curve
Anyway may go again before thursday.
One interesting point was how well Chris Huhne went down when he was up canvasing — the locals were very impressed. Nick Clegg as well. The informal chatter seemed to disagree with Jon@45…
How big a boost do posters think the BNP will now get in the local elections in West Yorkshire? Rather a large one, I should imagine.
Could actually be some value in the Dunfermline Race- SNP price versus LD. Reaction to CK was pretty good- SNP looked bad.
49 - It’s generated a huge amount of publicity for them but I’m still unconvinced that it will enable them to do much more than hold what they have.
In fact, I can almost answer my own question. The BNP nearly gained a set last night (and this area certainly isn’t one where you’d expect them to perform well)
Valley Council By-Election Result, Thursday 2nd February 2006.
Heanor and Loscoe Ward
Labour 570
BNP 411
Cons 317
Lib Dem 71
That should say Amber Valley.
Oh don’t be silly, Dunfermline is a two horse race between the Tories and the SSP!
p.s. I wonder how Simon Hughes feels being the third horse?
Lib Dems seem to be throwing the kitchen sink into Dunfermaline, extra money etc which must mean they will flood the place with workers next week to get their leaflets out.
Could mean they think they are doing well or trying to hold their vote.
Not seen the Glasgow result from yesterday, has anyone got it.
55 - It’s not taking place for a couple of weeks (Feb 16th).
PA reports:
Labour’s vote slumped in the year’s first major council by-elections test.
It also saw the far right British National Party surge into second place in one contest on the day its leader was cleared of two race hate charges.
The BNP took more than 30% at Heanor and Loscoe in Derbyshire’s Amber Valley Borough.
It finished 159 votes short of Labour.
BNP leader Nick Griffin was cleared on two charges at Leeds Crown Court yesterday. The jury was unable to reach a verdict on further charges and the Crown Prosecution Service said there would be a retrial.
This was the least bad result for Labour out of four comparable contests which saw its share fall by between 4.1% and 23.2% in a week of Government defeats in the Commons.
It was pushed from first to third place at North Carrick and Maybole East as independent Brian Connolly - by just one vote - thwarted a Tory bid to take overall control at South Ayrshire Council, Scotland, where they may have to rely on the provost’s casting vote.
Labour also slipped from a strong second last May - on the same day as the general election - to fourth behind the Green Party at Suffolk County Council’s Stowmarket South division.
Tories recaptured the seat, which had been represented by one of their members who later became independent, but Liberal Democrats missed by just 65 votes despite their national leadership problems.
Analysis of the four comparable results - fought both times by Labour and Tories - suggests a projected 18.5% nationwide Conservative lead.
Tories appear to have benefited from a collapse in the independent vote at Boston but elsewhere their overall vote share advance was modest with Labour’s slump mainly boosting Lib Dems and others.
The South Ayrshire result - where more than half the electorate turned out - has little significance for next week’s Commons by-election at Dunfermline and Fife West which is the other side of Scotland.
Amber Valley Borough - Heanor and Loscoe: Lab 570, BNP 411, C 317, Lib Dem 61. (June 2004 - Lab 905, C 774). Lab hold. Swing 5.4% C to Lab.
Aylesbury Vale District - Stewkley: C 557, Lib Dem 322. (May 2003 - C 609, Lab 253). C hold.
Boston Borough - Kirton: C 505, Lab 104, Ind 85. (May 2003 - Two seats C 353, Ind 335, C 314, Ind 233, Lab 146). C hold. Swing 16.6% Lab to C.
Fenland District - Manea: C 264, Lib Dem 136, Ind 136, Ind 39, Lab 12. (May 2003 - C unopposed). C hold.
South Ayrshire Council - North Carrick and Maybole East: Ind 408, C 407, Lab 342, SNP 316. (May 2003 - Lab 648, C 386, SNP 283, Scottish Socialist Party 64). Ind gain from Lab. Swing 11.6% Lab to C.
Suffolk County - Stowmarket South: C 733, Lib Dem 668, Green 354, Lab 337. (May 2005 - C 1576, Lab 1446, Lib Dem 1036, Green 563). C gain from Ind. Swing 4.3% C to Lib Dem.
38 - There is no love lost between Huhne and Nicholson. Huhne always gave 110% to support the party across the region and Nicholson did next to nowt. Nicholson won the selection for 1999 by miles while huhne only scraped home, four year later he trounced her in the selection for 2004.
Ming now has the support of 8 MEPs (up three) and of Jenny Willet (taking him to 29).
This must count for Ming (these people can pass the message on) - but I agree with Jon at 45 that Simon is doing much better than the bookies odds suggest.
49. my instinct is not much of a boost. They did well in the “all outs” in 2004 in West Yorks but all there wins were in split wards. in effect given the novelty value of having 3 votes some people gave one to the BNP. I think now we are back to elections by thirds that will focus peoples minds. They have also faced a really sustained press campaign against them (what they have done to some media owners I don’t know!) and most of there sitting councillors have been put through the media mill for appalling attendence records. I’ll be keeping an eye on Heckmondwyke ward in Kirklees which elected a Labour, Lib Dem and BNP councillor in 2004. The picture of the BNP guy shaking the hand of his new (asian) Lib Dem collegue is a classic if only for the look on his face.
while noting the overall drop for labour, i’m interested in the swing from CON to LAB in Amber Valley (a marginal general election seat I think?)
57: “a projected 18.5% nationwide Conservative lead”
That’ll do nicely!
It would produce a 1968-type result in London, Bob.
61: caused by Tory voters making a protest vote for the BNP. Quite why they would do that, God only knows, but they seem to. I suspect they would not do so at a General Election.
One point on the Lib Dem race that I’ll emphasis again is the difference between the activist wonkers, similar to the tofu tendency on this site, and the ordinary armchair beard and sandal bods only taking a passing interest in the contest. The latter make up the vast majority of the near 80,000 membership.
It’s all to easy to think that the entire membership are hanging on every nuance of the fray. They ain’t.
BTW straw in the wind …… further to my 44 news reaches me that mi Lord Rennard has indeed ordered a “kitchen sink operation” in D & FW until polling day. As david(s) indicated @55 this might be damage limitation …… but I’m advised not ….. interesting …… perhaps …… next straw … who are Labour attacking in the seat over the next few days ??
Hughes, trading above 12 at Betfair yesterday, was just traded at 7.8. Somebody knowing (or hoping) something about the YouGov poll?
65. you are right which is why sadly i think ming will win easerly. The arm chair members (or parker knolls) will decide this and have a very different view of things. And that is no bad thing. Politics would be even more detached than it already is if parties were just run by there activists.
Hughes is well known and popular, even with me (and I put him last in 99). Councillors seem to love him.
Random bet, I can’t seem to find a price anywhere, Tories to lose deposit at Dunfermline.
57 - I hope you are right GG! (I´m sure you are right about keeping the activists in touch with ordinary members - not to mention voters.
But Hughes will have got to more members via the Sun than anyone on QT. Expect him to do well.
I don’t think that the You Gov poll will decide anything - but it will surely influence the media debate.
re Peter 59 & other Ming supporters. Don’t you think that he is just too old? I know we have all joked about the picture above but it is very telling. As someone who is about to be 60 I am well aware that you do lose something as you get into your seventh decade and in this TV age this will be magnified.
71 - It’s not the most flattering picture! I can’t help thinking with a bit more facial hair he’d look a bit Like Sir Rhodes Bhoyson. Now there’s someone I’d like to see on the A list!
71: I thought he dealt with that issue very well at QT some weeks ago, and the audience reponding very warmly to him.
Us anoraks need to remind ourselves every day that very few people in this country have any interest in polics.
But I don’t think that applies to party members—surely the most interested 3% (?) of the population.
The LDs 70,000 members (disparagingly here labelled ‘armchair’ members) may be too stupid to make the ‘right’ choice. Possibly they are only sufficiently sentient to vote for grandpa Ming, as he is the only one whose name they recognise.
I don’t buy that scenario. I think those who bother to join any political party will make a considered and concientious choice.
52. Parts of Amber Valley are happy hunting ground for the BNP, I recall a Chanel 4 documentary a few years ago in Langley Mill, I think,
and the BNP got close in a few AVBC seats in May 04.
61. not possible to get any meaningful swing from the figures, where did the BNP vote come from? Labour-Tory- or non voters last time?
dont agree with 64. I do know that the BNP did a hell of a lot of work there though and Labour appeared to do very little. there was a reasonable Tory effort.
I can imagine the result being a protest vote from dissafected OLD Labour voters and a few Tories but mainly from previous non voters woken up by vigourous BNP campaigning.
The BNP eve of Poll leaflet played on a local teenager being attacked by “Asylum seekers”
71 Mike S. Oh Mike …. nearly 60 !! … put on your slippers, dust down the zimmer and prepare for the Co-Op funeral director !!.
BTW Mike what are you losing …. or shouldn’t we ask …… surely not in need of those “spamed” products ……. Lib Dems know when they get old ….. those instincts to race off a bar chart become dimmed and you feel the need to have the tofu minced !!
71 - Mike, as a 28 year-old, Ming’s age doesn’t bother me in the slightest. He wouldn’t be doing this if he didn’t have the energy.
As for the pic, I imagine (tho don’t know) that it was taken during Ming’s illness, when he was well entitled to look less than 100%.
re 76. One thing about getting older is that you need to go to the loo a lot more in the night!
77 - Looking forward to the rugger tomorrow Jack - Dan Parks at stand off - can’t believe it! It’s a bit like putting Adam Rickett on the A list oh hold on . . . .
71. I’m 22 and I have no problems with Ming being the age is his. Indeed a bit of experience may play well for us.
78 Mike S. A Lib Dem frequently going back in the (water) closet !! … now that is news !!
79 Max. Trepidation !! …. as long as Adam Rickitt isn’t a prop !!
64. I would like to think you are right about the BNP vote in Amber Valley being a protest vote by Tories that will return home, Bob, but I’m not sure you are right. Have a look at the GE results in parts of West Yorks and Lancashire and you will see the BNP vote is, unfortunately, getting quite well entrenched. It now presents a real barrier to the Tories in seats like Keighley. The stupid decision to prosecute Griffin et al. will, I fear, only help the BNP - free publicity plus martyrdom.
74. For every 10 lib dem members 3 will be highly active and live and breath the party. another 2 will do a bit at election time and write the odd cheque. Another 3 will have joined via the national website and consider there membership a bit like a subscription to the RSPB or OXFAM. The final 2 will have joined because a local councillor fixed there pavement and he/she knocked on there door and asked them to.
Let me be clear i’m not disparaging anyone. The/any party would cease to exist if it wasn’t for arm chair members. I’m just acknowledging that activists are a differnet breed and a minority in the party. Arm chair members will vote differently.
71 - If I was designing an ideal candidate I might shave a few years off, of course. On the other hand, Ming has the energy and the passion to do the job. He comes over as a warm person, balancing the gravitas/credibility aspect. And clearly the people who see most of him (the MPs) are backing him in droves. One has to trust their judgement. With Ming leading our talented front-bench I think we will look like serious contenders.
For me, Chris has this grey, “John Major” quality that will prevent him connecting with a large part of the electorate.
Simon has very little support from people who see most of him. Loads of enthuisiasm but little credibility?
No - not too old. His persona is warm and affable, and I think that’s of more importance.
I still have reservations about the way Chris Huhne comes over, which weren’t assuaged by QT last night. However, I thought he made an excellent speech in the City yesterday highlighting the lack of business experience in the government.
83 - the usual estimate is that activists comprise roughly 10% of the total membership. Which means about 7-8,000 activists.
If turn-out is c.60-65%, then some 45,000 members in total will vote, of whom about 37,000 will therefore be non-activists.
Fred, indeed their vote in West Yorkshire was disturbingly high (I think they held their deposits in most seats they contested). It may represent the floor, rather than the summit of their support. In Stoke on Trent, there was a Mayoral election on the same day as the GE, and the BNP candidate won twice as many votes as their general election candidates (who all saved their deposits).
Here’s Ciciero
Fascinating problem for Labour in Tower Hamlets, where famously a Labour councillor wanted a “men only” Mayor making a couple of years ago.
Despite the rule from Party HQ that every winnable ward has to have at least one woman candidate, Labour were only able to announce 14 women in 17 wards for 51 seats.
It has just been discovered that 5 of the 14 (all Muslim) women have dropped out. This includes the first Somali to be nominated as a candidate.
Labour will agin be fielding a massive slate of male Bengali candidates, mostly aged over 45.21 out of 33 current councillors are Male Bengali with just one aged under 45.
Bearing in mind that male Bengalis represent about 18% of the Borough and those aged over 45 less than 10% it makes a very, very inclusive selection process.
It will be interesting to see what spin Roger and Nick Palmer can put on this
88 - A very thoughtful and balanced critique! I’m sure many in the Republican party would have made similar arguments in favour of Bob Dole.
87. to contradict my earlier point the 04 Euro Election in yorkshire was there best result in the Country. Only the reduction in the number of MEP’s stopped them winning a seat. The Yorks and Humber list was reduced from 8 to 7. there percentage share of the vote would have given them the 8th seat had it existed under d’hont. Perhaps you are right?
87. Has there been any studies into the rise of the BNP. In my seat, they came close to saving their deposit which is worrying. (There man at the count said be would punch anyone who called him a racist, what a delightful chap). In my experience, a lot of the support comes from heartland labour areas. They pray on reactionary people who would have voted Labour whilst the Tories were in power believing they would be looked after. As with many grass is greener attituses, they now feel failed and are letting their worst instincts prevail.
One wonders where this will end, but putting Griffin and the like on trial will not help. It will only drive them on. They need to be defeated intellectually.
90 - Are you from West Yorkshire GG - if so what do you attribute the (relative) success of the BNP to?
Re. last night’s QT - I see Adam Rickitt’s biog. says he turned down a place to read law at Cambridge. So there’s more to him than the actor/singer thing, although arguably he should go back to university first before trying to get on the gold list.
I wish I could find a study that was published in Autum 2004, into voter attitudes in the London Assembly elections, Woody.
IIRC correctly, the proportion of BNP support drawn from ex-Labour and ex-Conservative supporters was quite similar. BNP supporters tended to be working class, male, and either young or old.
There was an interesting set of questions about what party supporters thought of other political parties. There was mutual loathing between Conservative voters and BNP voters, but both groups thought highly of UKIP, and were quite willing to give second preference votes to UKIP in the Mayoral ballot.
The non-activist vote may well be different from the activisit. My (unscientific) feeling if that that will harm SH, because of the generally unattracive ‘noise’ surrounding him. But I think that it won’t help grandpa Ming as much as his supporters hope.
If a party member is invited to vote for the leader, I suspect many (most?) will make an effort to see who is who? They may be more impressed with Ming than CH when they see them, but they won’t be voting ‘blind’.
Woody, I think there’s no doubt that a strong and active Conservative association does seem to be a barrier to BNP success in any given area.
Where they seem to gain is in areas where (a) Labour have tended to win for time out of mind and (b) the Conservatives used to be a clear second, but have seen their support and activist base dwindle away.
And here’s the other Cicero:
http://www.bartleby.com/9/2/1.html
There are of course, exceptions to my theory, such as Broxbourne.
59 and elsewhere, Peter, Hughes’ support is very soft among most people. They are seeing the momentum for Huhne. This is completely unlike the ‘99 election when everyone was surprised at quite how badly Rendel and Ballard did - even from what I can see amoong armchair members. Certainly I’ve seen some switching to Huhne especially from Hughes supporters, but some from Ming as well.
What won’t be discovered (unless there’s breach-of-the-rules phone canvassing going on) is the ‘noise’ with Campbell and Hughes - 95 you may be right. The odd thing will be the effect of yesterday’s Times and the poisonous smears from the Campbell camp, with their echoes of the briefing against Kennedy. Who knows?
96. Yes, from my seat, their votes cames from 2 main areas. One was an ex mining town/village and the big council estate. There are of course, no ethnic minorities living within these two areas and they have zero impact on their lives. Their voters are just seeking to blame others for their own failings.
I still believe it is a result of Labour moving into the centre. Many of the BNP voters loath the conservative party and the people who vote for it. With labour now talking the tory talk, the BNP is the only place for them to vote with their prejudice, which has changed from classism to racism.
Expect the yougov poll to show Ming well ahead. The “selected” memebrs poll for ITV will show him in the lead, I gather. Huhne will obviously be up by a huge amount as he polled zero in the last poll! Still take Ming to win (or effectively win with, say 48% - 49%) on the first ballot, and think that the odds on Huhne coming (a good) third are attractive. The breakdown of MPs is now 30 for Ming, 11 for Hughes, 11 for Huhne and 10 undecided or deliberately undeclared.
I was involved in the series of by elections in Barking and Dagenham where the BNP rose and fell.
They are seriously strange people. The candidate elected for the Goresbrook ward (overwhelmingly white and very C2) lasted just 10 months and it resulted in a second by election. he was a complete non entity, but was white and had lived in the area most if not all his life.
The leaders of the local BNP (and the 2005 Parliamentary candidates) were Richard Barnbrook who lives in Lewisham and Lawrence Rustem, who is half turkish.
On general election day the local paper published details of a gay pornographic art film, written and directed by Richard Barnbrook and starring Dick Barnbrook. It hindered his election day efforts in Barking
The elected councillor gave up in the summer and the by election was held in September - the new candidate was Rustem. The BNP leadership were dreadful to him in public, referring “jokingly” to his poisened genes and calling him a n*****. They werer rapidly asked to leave pubs and even coffee shops
The weather was very hot and during the campaign Rustem became less and less “aryan” in appearence.
The BNP campaign is organisationally clever. They keep the head bangers off doorsteps and go out in groups, usually with women who always smile and look, well they smile.
Labour, Conservative and indeed UKUIP, canvassers reported that voters having given them a chance were very turned off. One woman siad “I was interested in what they were saying but when you see them, they are weird”
At the count(s) at several of Barking and Dagenham’s numerous by elections. The candidates tended to be sidelined and extremely dubious figures such as Tony Lecomber would appear and direct operations. It is clearly a party within a party. Effectively the nazi element is locked up until the last minute
They always walk out when the result was known, before the declaration.
At the last by election in this cycle (Becontree) the BNP candidate was not seen until the count, where he sat at the back of the room.
I refuse to acknowledge them in any way, but understand that he stood because he was asked and was horrified at the reaction from neighbours and other locals.
Interesting to see if this pattern is repeated
100: Can it be so simple? If that were so it would seem to disagree with Sean Fear’s contention that the BNP could cost Tory chances of revival in Yorkshire/Lancashire seats. I actually agree with Sean - some of the seats that produced a high BNP vote-share were Tory at the zenith of Thatcherism (Bradford West, Dudley North, Batley & Spen, Pendle, Hyndburn). The implication is that some current BNP voters went for Thatcher’s Tories and I suspect their current inclination could cost your chances of regaining some of these.
George Galloway BEATS Blair and Cameron AGAIN
http://www.respectcoalition.org/?ite=978
47. Well one of us is certainly being patronising. To infer sexism from my post would, I submit, say rather more about you than me.
I do believe that the women chosen by Blair to front his government since 1997 are a peculiarly second-rate. They list reads, as has been noted before, as a Who’s Who of the giants of mediocrity of our age - Hewitt, Hodge, Beckett, Kelly, Jowell, etc. I’m not saying there aren’t several other lightweights, all of whom contribute towards making this administration the least intellectual since Baldwin’s - Straw, most particularly - but it does seem that as far as women are concerned it is true without exception. Needless to say, this smacks of an attempt by the High Command, either to promote women for the sake of it over talent, or of the desire to stuff the bench with Blairites. Either way it is not healthy.
100. Interesting insight Woody and I’m sure you are right that the BNP has been successfully getting support amongst disaffected working class voters many of whom would in the past have been Labour voters. There are parts of the North where they are getting more middle class support too, though, like the area around Burnley. Next time around, unless this trend can be stopped, I think they may well get a couple of decent second places in Westminster seats.
Interesting front page in Nottingham Evening Post re BNP & Amber Valley by election.
The BNP have been reported to the Police for “unfounded” claims that “3 asylum seekers raped a local woman”. Police said a local english born white male has been arrested for the rape. and a file on the BNP leaflets sent the the CPS
Dreadful Labour result in Suffolk; hard to read all the others with Independents and BNP moving in and out of the equations. I know Amber Valley well as it’s next door to Broxtowe (indeed less than half a mile from where I’m writing). There is a clump of old mining towns around here with significant BNP sympathy - they got 40% in a parish election in Brinsley, a sleepy village, and Ilkeston in Erewash constituency also has some far-right elements. They get mainly disaffected working-class votes who used to vote Labour when the Tories were in but now might vote anything or nothing. No doubt the Griffin trial coverage helped.
Could the BNP’s (very modest) rise also be due to a justified sense, in the white working class, that nobody looks out for their interests any more?
Tories are Tories, regarded as too posh in many areas to really give a fig about poorer people. The Lib Dems are simply middle class. Labour, who used to represent white workers, are also much more middle class than they used to be. Additionally, Labour yearns to be a rainbow coalition - feminists, greens, ethnic minorities - while at the same time appearing to despise and revile the values of ordinary white working class people - patriotism, an affection for royalty, etc.
Why does Labour do this? I think it’s a personal class issue for many on the left. A lot of Labour activists and MPs etc are socially insecure, having only just risen from the poor working classes themselves. So they understandably seek to distance themselves from working class attitudes, indeed they often revile those attitudes (simple patriotism, etc) - because they are scared of expressing attitudes that might typify themselves as being still of the working class.
All of which means the white working classes in parts of the country have nobody who represents them, except a bunch of thugs like the BNP. Which I think is a shame and a scandal, and I hope Cameron’s Tories can amend that.
205-”They list reads, as has been noted before, as a Who’s Who of the giants of mediocrity of our age - Hewitt, Hodge, Beckett, Kelly, Jowell, etc”
Beckett and Hewitt are both good IMO, but I find Jowell pretty mediocre.
The quality of the 1997 female intake? yes, there were some appaling MPs (the Venerable Helen above all), but there were some good quality women too.
And the same thing could be said for the male intake.
103. I can only go by my experience in my area. Obviously they will get spasmodic support across all classes, where they let their worst instincts prevail. I know of people who would be classed as middle class who are racist because of their parents influence.
84: That would be the “grey” quality John Major had that enabled him to get the largest vote for the Conservatives *ever* at the 1992 general election, then…
One of the more notable things I’ve heard about David Cameron is that he is, apparently, the first Tory leader that the general populace finds more appealing than the Tory party, since John Major.
I wouldn’t, therefore, discount Huhne on the basis of comparisons with John Major.
Stephen Pound looks, uhm, good in this outfit:
http://image.guardian.co.uk/sys-images/Politics/Pix/pictures/2006/02/03/review200.jpg
Sean @ 94. I think you’re thinking of Helen Margetts et al. There is a chapter based on their research in a Joseph Rowntree paper paper here - http://www.jrrt.org.uk/Far_Right_REPORT.pdf
110. Yes but Andrea, I am no talking about the parliamentary intake, which I’m sure would not vary much between all parties, but rather those who were promoted to the front bench. There are good reasons why you might have mediocre constituency representatives; there is no such excuse for staffing government.
109. I’m not sure we will have any impact of the BNP support Sean. Their voters tend to loath the conservtaives and the hatred is deeply ingrained. The Cameron approach is to go after the middle classes that have switched to Labour and young professionals. I don’t really see Cameron offering anything that will bring in racists.
111. No, this contempt for the people who vote BNP, by dismissing them as just ‘racist’, will not do. Nor does it help us understand the appeal of the BNP - so as to better combat it.
I think for many people voting BNP is like voting Pim Fortuyn in Holland, or Jean Marie le Pen in France, it’s a sod you to the liberal elite, who seem to look down on the ordinary patriotic values of white working class people.
It is also of course a protest against the effects of multiculturalism and mass immigration. But its a protest coming from the people who suffer the negative side-effects of these phenomena more than the insulated middle clsses. If you were white and had kids at a school where, say, 80% of the other children were Muslim, you might get a bit annoyed at politicians preaching racial tolerance to you - when these politicians put their kids in nice private schools or selective pseudo-grammar schools.
A vote for the BNP does not, necessarily, make the voter a racist. We need to understand why people are feeling like this - before the BNP gets an actual MP.
Show trials of BNP leaders don’t help, either.
112 I don’t discount him at all, Timothy. I have in mind that poll in which voters were shown a clip of the candidates (featured on this site).
Woody @ 16. According to the Margetts et al study BNP voters don’t actually loathe the Conservatives Woody (well, they might well do so in Burnley and Dewsbury - I suspect they do - but they don’t in London).
Look at the diagram on p.14 of the paper I linked to above. It asked votes fo each party if they would consider voting for other parties. Amongst BNP voters the net rating (i.e. the % of BNP voters who would consider voting Tory minus those who wouldn’t consider voting Tory) was +21. The only other party they had a positive net figure for was UKIP (+71, suggesting the overwhelming majority of BNP voters would happily vote UKIP).
116. I refer you to my post at 117.
Tho… I think Cameron CAN reach these people as Thatcher did, or at least his team can. Hague et al can evince a proper patriotism - and a common sense northern opposition to the wilder lunacies of political correctness.
There’s a lot of votes there. And we need to save these unhappy people from the sweaty clutches of the BNP. Thatcher single handedly screwed the NF. We can do the same.
you could always try running a general election warning of britain becoming a foreign land again Sean…I’m sure it would be just as successful as it was in 2001.
109: I’d agree with much of SeanT’s analysis, except that I don’t think the cultural factors are that important. The BNP have had much less success in Scotland where there has been a vigorous opposition to Labour from the left from the SSP, and the SSP haven’t had to compromise on issues such as asylum seekers or gay rights.
The BNP have to an extent successfully gone into these areas where Labour arrogantly assume they ‘own’ the vote and spent time on the ground convincing pwople that the reason they’ve been forgotten is because of ‘those other folk’, by which they don’t, unfortunately, mean the champagne-quaffing classes of the Square Mile…
I think this is a very dangerous aspect of the FPTP system which is often not touched upon. By forcing the main parties to fight only in the ‘centre’ over the ’swing’ voters in the ‘marginal’ constituencies, it breeds not apathy, but deep frustration in wide swaths of the country who don’t see their point of view being represented.
It’s interesting that Tory attempts to win these votes [dog-whistle campaigns, etc] seem to have failed completely as the voters have mostly decided to go for the ‘real thing’ in terms of the BNP if they are very fed up with saylum seekers, etc. By contrast, the Lib Dems seemed to pick up more votes in Labour seats than the Tories [or BNP] did by opposing Labour from the left [increasing tax on the rich, opposing Iraq war].
It seems to me that the ‘heartland’ Labour vote is likely to deteriorate further at the next election. I’m not sure whether four years of rebranding and repositioning is going to be enough to give Cameron’s Tories any chance of scooping up votes there [FPTP means they wouldn't get any seats anyway...], but I’m more interested to see whether the scramble by the Lib Dems to join in with the other two centre-right parties will end up losing them votes in Labour core areas next time. Then where else will they go? Greens? BNP?
From a betting point of view it makes me wonder what the spread bets for Labours percentage at the next general election are. Could be heading quite low…
121. Well that’s helpful.
BNP
Id say with regard to their votes Social Class is more important than party ( lab or Tory) in particular id say that Durkheims views on ‘Anomie’ are relevant - Namely that as societies become more industrialised ( and now post- industrialised) there is less space for the unskilled.
As seasonal , temporary , agricultural and factory work dries up for this part of society they become more marginalised. they will also be the group that encounters ( they live in the cheapest most cramped housing where immigrants will be placed )or feels most threatend by immigration ( cheaper unskilled labour).
Interestingly at the GE the BNP made a strategy of appealing to Afro caribean and Sikh voters along these lines ( ” theres too much immigration ,any more and you will lose your position “)
both Lab and Tory were able to appeal to these voters for either economic or nationalistic reasons. While many have been arguably abandond by Nulab in its march to the centre , this is a group of voters that may well feel disenfranchised by Camerons attempts to make the tory’s ‘ Compassionate’
another key factor is low turn out - they become proportionately more powerful the less other people vote .
Isnt the quote along the lines of ” all that Tryranny needs is for good men to do nothing”
116. I think it’s too simplistic to dismiss the BNP voters as ‘racist’, after all 800,000 people voted for them at the last GE. Large parts of their program appeal to people. If they continue to make progress on the fund-raising front and ditch some of their madder economic policies they could do a Vlaams Blok style breakthrough to the political mainstream. Don’t say it can’t happen here…
119,120. I can only go by my experience. Might be different in other areas. I’m not sure if Cameron will appeal or set a stall out for BNP voters though.
122. There are some strange cross currents going on in some of the Northern and Midland working class seats though - the Lib Dems last time were picking up votes from ethnic minorities due to Iraq, the BNP from resentful white voters. Both sets of voters were historically inclined to Labour. If this continues there could be some weird results down the road, with parties winning seats on maybe 30% of the vote or even less.
We should be also aware that the BNP could well be in a position to garner protest votes from smokers in Labour working class areas who may feel their lifestyle of a drink and smoke with friends down the local pub is being threatened by all the major parties .
My impression is that in West Yorkshire, at least, the BNP has a slightly higher calibre of activist, than in East London, where, as Peter Golds says, they are a very strange bunch indeed. Even Searchlight has said their Calderdale councillors are quite effective.
Apologies if this has already been covered, but just done the You Gov poll of Lib Dems.
It did ask for who you would put as number 2, and also asked for ratings on visability, experience, whether they are a potential prime minister etc. as well as how many seats they would win off the tories and labour.
Assuming the sample is sound should give a pretty clear steer on the state of play.
We’ve talked about the possible impact of the Griffin trial on this week’s BNP success. I wonder whether the furore over the Danish cartoons and the other violent manifestations of Islamic alieniation from the basic norms of (now) secular western societies, also played, and frankly will continue to play into the hands of political extremists. And also to heighten alarm among those who, by no stretch of the imagination, are remotely racist or fascist inclined?
Obscurantism tends to be catching…
30. Are you a declared Party member, or are Yougov sampling people who have said they voted Lib Dem in the past but may not be Party members? The sample is pretty crucial in this case!
131. Yup. I wrote an article about the Griffin trial, and read all the evidence. Apart from the usual pseudo-racist bilge, the most sensational statement from Griffin, as reported in court, was when he said ’sooner or later a 2nd generation Pakistani born in Bradford will set off a bomb in a British city’.
Griffin said that 18 months BEFORE 7/7.
I wonder how many people, reading that report from Griffin’s trial, compared his astonishing clairvoyancy with the less forthright or downright clumsy statements from mainstream politicians, and thought: mmm.
Griffin is a rather sad man, but he is no fool. Giving him the airtime of a political showtrial was insane; mix that with the furore over the Danish cartoons and its a dangerous mix where far right parties could prosper in the UK.
Jack Straw so nakedly kowtowing to his Muslim constituents and condemning the Danish cartoons doesn’t help, either. What about his white constituents who quite fancy a bit of free speech about Islam?
Messy.
71 - Mike, I’m pretty sure that the photo of Ming was taken while
he was fighting cancer so his appearance is not surprising.
He’s looking somewhat healthier now.
On the leadership front I will be very surprised if Hughes
does not do considerably better than is currently being
forecast.
Finally on Dunfermline I have received appeals from Lord
Rennard along the lines that he doesn’t normally make this
many calls for help unless we’re in with a genuine chance of
winning. We shall see.
125. “800,000 people voted for them at the last GE”.
Where did you get that figure from? 192,000 more like.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/vote_2005/frontpage/4519347.stm
The Danish cartoons are pretty tame - but not according to several fruits and nuts whose letters are printed in today’s Guardian.
BNP; I think the Tories will have some trouble in attracting BNP voters at the next election if they continue on their march to the centre ground.
As has been touched on above the BNP attract both voters who feel marginalised by the liberal elite, as well as middle/upper class little-England types.
These people care about immigration, assylum seekers etc. Exactly the issues Cameron will want to avoid at the next GE in order to attract the Middle classes, who so heavily voted for Blair in 1997, and have either stuck with Labour or not voted since then.
Likewise Labour are unlikely to attract these votes because of their need to appeal to the Middle class and ethnic minority vote.
nc @ 132 I’m a civil servant so I couldn’t possibly comment.
But the first question is whether you are a member of Labour, Tories or Lib Dems.
Intriguingly I note our intrepid defender of the government Mr. Palmer suggested earlier the Griffin trial may have helped the BNP vote. How does this square with his support of the recent ‘religious hatred’ bill, I wonder - given that would risk criminalising far less unpleasant people than Griffin and by extension risk giving the far right even more ammunition?
“Egyptian ferry sinks in Red Sea
A ferry carrying about 1,400 people, most of them Egyptians, has sunk in the Red Sea.”
This doesn’t look good.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4676916.stm
133. I see there is going to be a retrial. More publicity and more donations. Amongst the racist bile from Griffin, there are interesting debating points. The one about racist murders. Griffin feels white and black get more coverage. Ian Blair thinks the opposite. Which one is correct or is neither? Also with reference to the cartoons, if it was Jesus depicted in this way, would Christians be listened to in the Muslims are.
137. Is there any statistical evidence that BNP voters are ex-Tory voters or would otherwise vote Tory? I’m sure I read somewhere* that more BNP voters were ex-Labour than ex-Tory. Given the BNP’s support for nationalised industries and economic illiberalism this isn’t really surprising.
*Alas I cannot cite this exactly. I’ll have a search around for my source.
135. Probably thinking of the European elections.
On the by-election- some may have seen that rennard has launched a £10k appeal- over £5k raised so far, so he is getting a good response from his members’ email. I have to say good on Charles for getting straight back into the fray with his visit to Fife- he could easily have said no, but seeing reports of him yesterday, really is well liked up, just as he is around the country. I loved his jibe though, about how he feels as fit now as he did when he handed over the leadership. Ouch Ming!
Lots of Lib Dem MPs up there- I saw some from Wales, Yorkshire, Stockport- I get the feeling they are going for it. Time shall tell. I get the feeling that a bad labour result would be very bad for Brown- I think he has ben there at least 5 times.
Given that the charges on which no verdict could be agreed are the *less* serious ones, a retrial seems particularly asinine.
Sorry for bad spelling! Written quickly.
142 continued.
“a quarter of BNP voters are ex-Labour voters”
“hardly anyone in the 18-25 category voted Labour. In this age group, large numbers of young men have been attracted to the BNP’s message”.
http://www.irr.org.uk/
Jack Straw’s caving in over the cartoons really is an utter disgrace, and demonstrates to a tee that lack of intellectual gravitas I was earlier pointing out. There is a simple litmus test to be applied here: at what point would he do the same in condemning cartoons that attacked the Anglican or even Catholic churches?
The golden rule is that you cannot start treating any one section of society with kidgloves; otherwise the likes of Nick Griffin will only have more to play with.
142. The BNP’s economic policies, if they can be credited with the term, are fairly typical of a party with fascist antecedents - protectionist and corporatist. This area historically is where fascist movements have indeed got crossover support from voters who might otherwise be inclined leftward. Quite a lot of Nazi votes came from former communist voters. The ’siege economy’ idea appeals to the same psychological instinct as the racist stuff.
142. I think you are right that a lot of them are ex-Labour. My post is kinda referring to SeanT @ 120.
There is a piece here about BNP voters (which kinda suggests they are indeed people in areas who would have traditionally voted Labour).
http://www.irr.org.uk/2004/april/ak000015.html
145. It’s about time those responsible for this learnt you can’t defeat the BNP by trying to suppress them. Let their economic spokesman debate with Brown, Osbourne and whoever the Lib Dems throw up. Let Griffin debate with Blair and Cameron. This would show them up for what they are. Trying to prosecute them is giving them a mystique which is liable to attract voters rather than deflect them.
150 This lines up with the French studies showing that many FN voters are ex PCF voters. But many BNP voters (and indeed candidates) are probably people who would not otherwsie vote.
Further to my previous, I would also suggest that by now, British newspapers actually have a duty to publish some or all of the cartoons insofar as it is doing so in the public interest; to do so now would no longer be in the provocative spirit of the original. We cannot have a debate about this particular case, without seeing the offending articles themselves now. If they don’t publish it, they should not really comment on the underlying issue - it is very unfair to those of us who cannot access them.
Tistoph
I believe in Burnley the remergance of the Tories in the town caused the BNP to lose a seat, indead the Tories are looking to gain two council seats, I believe, in Burnley.
On the BNP vote, we have them standing for election in Radcliffe (Bury M.B.C) probably Radcliffe East. Terrible leaflets every problem in Radcliffe is due to asylum seekers. Anyway, at the Borough meeting they attended, I was late and missed them being refused to speak at a public meeting.
later on a problem case was raised by constituents in which the case has showen labour councillors in a bad light, the Labour chair tried to stop them raising it. I stood and berated the chair. The BNP then said they also should have spokenand my points I raised in defence of non partisan residents also applied to them, It may surprise you but they had a good deal of sympathy with the audience, sympathy that would not have been there if they were allowed to speak freely, and thus show their flawed, and quite frankly disturbed and bitter logic (i.e few asylum seekers in Radcliffe). Instead they were allowed to be martyred. If you curtail freedom of speach this is what happens, contempt is stirred and extremism rises. If you take them on as happened in Bury Last GE and last LE then there vote wimpers away.
I agree if they are given a platform, they tend (with the partial exception of Nick Griffin) to come over very badly.
151. Totallement. Moreover, this retrial just risks adding petrol to the fires. It looks like state-sponsored judicial harrassment: spending tens of thousands of pounds to re-prosecute a man for dubious remarks made at a private political meeting. If Griffin has an agent working at the Crown Prosecution Service the BNP couldn’t have arranged it better. If he wins - exoneration and even more publicity. If he loses - martyrdom and even more publicity.
Stupid asses should stop it, now.
My anecdotal evidence on the BNP vote in Birmingham from box counts and careful study of voter id is that much of it doesn’t normally vote and the rest seems to mainly come from the Labour column.
149. Spot on and well put.
Whoever is doing PR for Islam should be out of a job
- they need a voice of sanity figure who will speak to the press and the public will recognise when they come out to give a soundbite in a time of crisis.
These rowdy demonstrator types are hardly going to help their polling chances for the New Islamic Caphilate Party at the forthcoming local elections are they ?
Perhaps more focus groups are required ?
For those who feel that the lib. dems may win the Dunfermline by-election, the arcticle in the local newspaper may be of some interest.
SCOTLAND’S leading political pundit has predicted that the Dunfermline and West Fife by-election is going to be closer than expected.
Professor John Curtice admitted it would be a “shock” if favourite Catherine Stihler does not hold the safe Labour seat – but he would not rule out a massive swing to the SNP
….
And he suggested the national troubles of the Liberal Democrats would leave their candidate Willie Rennie looking over his shoulder at the unfancied Scottish Conservatives. Professor Curtice added, “The more interesting question is whether or not the Tories can grab third place. It only requires a five per cent swing from Lib Dem to Tory for it to happen.”
154. I agree, if you challenge their views they tend to be revealed for what they are, and it would follow that their vote would go down.
I am very pleased that the Tories are beating BNP candidates, I hope that trend continues and my earlier point is proven worng.
My fear is with the shift by the Tories more to the middle ground, this may further marginalise people who are deeply worried about immigration and assylum, and who generally have small “c” conservative and little-Englander views on issues like immigration, assylum and multiculturalism.
151 - Hold on a minute…there’s a world of difference between trying to supress them (completely counter-productive) and actually presenting them with a platform (e.g. on TV) on a semi-equal footing with parties in comparison to whom their support is but a pin-prick
on the body politic.
135. Sorry! That was a typo.
127 - strange cross currents in the midlands
Id definately agree, the Bnp have a growing prescence in Sandwell and there were concerted attempts in Longbridge and Yardley.
To further muddy the waters Id particularly highlight the Birmingham vote rigging scandal in Aston.
While the Labour Candidates were quite rightly prosecuted over it what does not seem to have been picked up by the Nationals is that it also involved the Lib dems and eventual winners of the Seats the Kashmiri justice Party.
What seems to have gone on is that Kashmiri/Pakistani/Bangladeshi ethnic politics seems to have hit the fan with the various immigrant communities splitting into the different parties. This is why it turned into such a viscious and corrupt fight.
It continues to run with not so long ago the Lib dem deputy leader being sacked amongst allegations of corruption/Racism and the somewhat Bizarre fact that Birmingham Council has 3 councillors from The Kashmiri justice Party ( !?!.
I have heard one acount of a sudden appearances of 10-20 Sikhs at a Labour Party meeting to vote in their candidate.
All the major parties suffer from a lack of members and activists id argue this problem most recently hit the tories post 97 ( hence the stories of candidates with unchecked BNP backgrounds) and LIB DEMs have always sufferd from a more open selection procedure allowing mavericks through, but my experience of the Labour Party in Birmingham is that since the collapse in active membership post Iraq we are just as open to ENTRYISM .
Labour obviously experienced it with militant in the early 80’s but its my feeling that it may reapear along ethnic lines in all the Major Parties
159 - Perhaps the New Islamic Caphilate Party and the Jacobite Restoration Front could form a Coalition of the Righteous. First Harpenden, then Boreham Wood, then….
162. It wouldn’t have to be on TV. Just in print. Dismissing them just as racists isn’t enough. However, it does raise a point that if UKIP with similar support to the BNP, get invited to send a representative on Question Time on occasion, then should the BNP be invited on every so often. No doubt, they would be made to look a fool against a competent panel and the party are shown up.
153. They don’t have a duty to print them - that’s as bad as saying they’ve got a duty not to print them.
These cartoons are becoming ridiculously right-on.
166. I don’t know. The Respect person on QT a couple of weeks ago came across quite well overall IMO, and they are a silly party.
You are right though. Dismissing them as racists is counter-productive and highly irresponsible.
The best policy would be to fight them hard on the ground. Highlight the flaws in their arguments on voter’s doorsteps.
166 - I think we need to be ‘pragmatic’ here (dreadful word I realise but can’t think of something more appropriate). If the BNP were, by some misfortune, to capture a large number of elected positions (as UKIP has done at two Euro-elections), AND rise to,say, 5%+ in the polls, then taking them on openly could well be the proper strategy.
But while their support remains infinitesimal overall, I think the risks of exposure outweighs those of largely ignoring them. And, even allowing for Gorgeous George’s antics, that age old adage that ‘all publicity is good publicity’ shouldn’t lightly be dismissed.
169. But that support COULD be much bigger, and we have to be on guard against that. We can’t just shrug our shoulders and dismiss them as a non-entity.
http://www.newstatesman.com/200501240011
136 Sean Fear: “The Danish cartoons are pretty tame”
- particularly if compared with some cartoons published by the muslims: http://atlasshrugs2000.typepad.com/atlas_shrugs/2006/02/do_what_islam_s.html
169. They did get 800000 votes in the euro elections, and there are many more people in the country who didn’t vote for them but have racist inclinations (a few in main parties I’m sorry to say) for whom an intellectual flooring of the BNP would be a benefit.
The point about some BNP voters normally being non-voters is a fair one I think, and is in line with the idea that their natural constituency is among the disaffected working class. The real worry I have with this whole issue is just how serious this disaffection is, that it can make large numbers of ordinary people vote for Hitler-worshipping, conspiracy theory-obsessed buffoons. There is a theory among some lefties I know that BNP voters ‘know not what they do’ but I think that is absolutely wrong - their voters have a pretty good idea what they stand for and support them anyway, so desperate are they to make their point. If they were a bit more polished and disciplined, I think they would get even more votes, so great is the disaffection they feed off. There are parts of the north where they are getting toward 10% in GEs and I think they could get up to 20-25% in the right conditions. This would be astonishing if you consider the pitiful record of fascist-style parties in the UK in the last century. Mosley’s mob never got anywhere near that level of support.
167. They do have a duty to print them, if they want to stimulate an informed debate on them. If they don’t want to do that, they shouldn’t discuss it.
Thanks to Local (160) for pointing out the Curtice article. “For those who feel that the lib. dems may win the Dunfermline by-election, the article in the local newspaper may be of some interest.”
However, I get the impression that John Curtice is just speculating on the basis of last time´s figures and recent political developments, and that there is no hard news coming directly from the field of battle. My hunch is that the various reports about Chris Rennard´s messages to Lib Dem helpers could be more relevant about the way things are going.
175. Well Rennard of course will be much more impartial than John Curtice.
174. Yes, it’s abnormal not to have them in by way of illustration, but duty - and solidarity - don’t come into it.
Cameron’s Conservatives win Kirton By-Election on Boston Borough Council with a Thumping Majority:
Result of yesterday’s By-Election :-
Fitzgerald, Independent, 85.
Holstead, Labour, 104.
John Rylatt, Conservative, 505.
Turn-out : 20.7%
This is a Conservative Hold, with substantially
increased majority.
Not exactly, Fred, because John Curtice is interpreting events, while Rennard seems to be saying nothing publicly. However, he is doing a great deal behind the scenes, allegedly. As a forecaster, when he speaks out, he is usually spot on. So, in this case, I would not accept so readily the speculation in the Curtice article.
I find the public hostility towards Cameron and the Tories very significant; people in Dunfermline seem not to have forgotten what Thatcher did to them… And I am not much impressed by the reports of the Tories´ need to bus in loads of young supporters to make a photogenic backdrop.
John13
what with liberal plants, all parties bus people in you did in cheadle you did in Romsey, Eastleigh, Leicester & Southwark so why can’t we
YOUGOV POLL - first question is whether you are a paid up memebr of LibDems. If not, no further questions asked.
179. All sounds rather a lot like predictable ramping to me. But we’ll see. My suspicion is the SNP will poll quite well.
180 Good point! Also on the topic of “what Thatcher did to Dunfermline,” Cameron was probably still at school when the mines closed so it seems a bit much to blame him and his party for it. The subsidies give out for a generation before hand did the real damage as they created an unstable situation, and both parties were responsible for that!
Crossland at 164 is obviously a little confused about Birmingham.
The best BNP result was in Oscott with over 20% of the vote and a mere 13% behind Labour, but third place, then Stechford with nearly 20% of the vote and second place but over 25% behind the LibDems. The obviously scary one is Kingstanding with 19% of the vote, a mere 10% behind Labour and in second place in a notorious low-turnout area.
The Aston rerun was won by the LibDems, not the PJP, they won 2/3rds of the Bordesley Green re-run. The Bordesley Green re-run was reasonably clean on all sides.
The LibDem deputy leader was not sacked, Cllr Tariq Khan has remained in place throughout the period. A Cabinet member was removed from post -unfairly in my opinion and proceeded to raise allegations about racism - again unfairly in my opinion. Not a word about corruption has been raised.
It will be interesting to see if the elections are clean or not this year, especially in the wards which didn’t have cases but did have enhanced dodgyness. I have my doubts, I’m afraid as no one seems to have grasped the nettle of cleansing house in some of those wards.
Mr Fear and his cohorts may be amused that the local Tories believe they will gain seven seats from Labour. If the last two elections predictions are to be believed, then they will lose one seat to Labour. More seriously, I think they might play swapsies in a couple of wards and end up +2 (not counting their defector from Handsworth).
Oh and sole control of Birmingham for any party is just about impossible this time.
Fred - of course he is more impartial than Rennard, but he is far less informed on the ground - Curtis will have spoken to precisely zero voters - unlike Rennard.
Curtis has a poor record for by-election prediction, because unlike Michael Crick he is far too grand to get his hands dirty talking to voters.
You can never wipe out the BNP vote. I think it is fair to assume the typical BNP voter is of lower intelligence or emotionally retarded in some way. Look at the number of convicts in their leadership.
Bigotry and ignorance run hand in hand and there will always be stupid people seduced by extreme nationalism. If Griffin can be successfully prosecuted and the party can be portrayed as the bigotted nasty party that it is, then that can only be a good thing.
I don´t know about those seats, Stuart (80) - I wasn´t there… But it seems to me that bussing peole in for staged photo opportunities with the leader is a sign of weakness. Presumably the Lib Dems were relatively weak at the time of the byelections in the places you mention, if that is what they did then.
I am just reading the runes in Dunfermline as a sign of Tory weakness.
183. I wasn’t even alive when Simon Hughes won his seat, but I am still tarnished by that brush when people start talking about the homophobia of that by-election campaign and the role of the LDs in it.
Being a member of a politcal party means accepting that parties past. Plus i have heard Cameron rant and rave about Thatcher, so frankly any association (negative or positive) is rightly deserved.
By election in Cheadle was last year, they were hardly weak. My friend was taken photos of local liberals all very photogenic, some with weird accents such as cockney and Edingburgh,not having a go I’m just saying all parties do and in a high intensity fight, such as a close fought by-election it is neccasary for them to do so.
Also Romsey was in 2000 Liberals not exactly weak then.
180: Difference is we had local people there as well. From what I hear there were 5 tory members at the selection meeting for the by election candidate in Dunfermline. Not clear whether that figure includes any or all of the potential canidates :-). Laughable that the St. Andrews Student Conservatives decided that thursday lunchtime was an excellent time to go, i quote, “shopping” in Dunfermline.
On a plus note, a good result for Tories would be impressive given these starting conditions — it was a unfeasibly quick by election date.
Also I believe John Curtice was commenting on a poll which was provided by the SNP for the local paper. For reasons noted above it not exactly statistically trustworthy. That said the SNP are not “out of it” by any stretch of the imagination.
189. Yes I think we’ll be taking no lectures from the Lib Dems about dodgy by election tactics.
The local D&WF party has a tiny membership (our membership is overwhelmingly in the South of Scotland) that’s just a fact of life, so we’re not going to have many local members there. But I think it’s pushing it to suggest we shouldn’t bring in supporters from else where. Also papers other than the Tory-hating Herald give a slightly more balanced view of DC’s visit.
192 After Cheadle you won’t need them, Woody.
194. Quite so.
Surely people understand the difference between bussing in supporters to help with your campaign - stuff envelopes, deliver leaflets, knock on doors etc and bussing them in to talk to your own party leader and then bussing them out again?
One’s campaigning, the other’s a PR stunt.
184 - Sorry to everyone for the inaccuracies in my post, thanks to Iain for putting them right.
The ‘corruption’I was reffering to re- the removed cabinet member in question was his claim that he was being removed for not granting a grant to a Bangladeshi community group.
I got my detail wrong but hopefully my overal point got through that ‘ethnic’ politics is increasingly having an effect in the west Midlands in both fringe and mainstream parties.
Like Iain im not convinced that the mainstream parties have the will to grasp the issue and get their houses in order in those wards
Re 90 Stuart, the people were not “bussed”, they drove, caught the train or flew, paying for it themselves. I know it is pedantic but there is a difference. But does it matter?. There must be more important things to concern us.
It is unusual for John Curtice to talk up the Liberal Democrats and his record as Scotlands leading pundit could be challengable. On paper one would agree with him but some straws in the wind might seem to be suggesting otherwise.
The local results yesterday again suprised me and maybe a few others and might just suggest that where they work hard the Lib Dems would do well. But yes on paper it should be the SNP who move forward, and they are spinning their canvass returns.
It needs a local opinion poll to get a more realistic idea. Is one coming out.
crossland - I await this years elections with a certain amount of bated breath and not just because I’m finally standing in a decent seat as opposed to being a random paper candidate.
I can think of one non-ethnic ward in Birmingham were eyebrows were raised at both the increase in postal votes and the final result.
Oh, Max (93): “But I think it’s pushing it to suggest we shouldn’t bring in supporters from else where.”
Whoever suggested that? Certainly not myself. All I as saying was that if a party has to bus people in just to provide background for a photo op, then it is clear that it is pretty thin on the ground in terms of supporters. The inference I make is that there are not many Tories to be found in Dunfermline - borne out by the figures given for your selection meeting (ie only five). Of course, you may have other members who were boycotting the entire process in support of the (now former) leader of the Tories on the County Council, but that only adds fuel to the fire of Tory misfortunes.
HoC procedural question…. when, unfortunately, there is the death of an MP as in Dunfermline what happens in the period between the until the by-election?
Is the government’s majority effectively reduced by 1 in this case, or is there an agreement that there is a kind of “standing pairing” arrangement?
91.”
The Yorks and Humber list was reduced from 8 to 7. there percentage share of the vote would have given them the 8th seat had it existed under d’hont.”
If I didn’t get my numbers wrong, the 8th should have been a 3th Labour seat (137,737 as third quota for Labour vs 126,538 for BNP). Number 9 was another Tory seat and then the BNP.
Daivd(S) RE98 exactly my point, that all the parties did it, although Liberals did also ‘Bus in’ people from Cheadle I saw the buses, so did we. I don’t mind that and was arguing there are more important thinks to worry about. All parties do it its a fact of life. I was merely pointing out the inconsistancies of his arguement. If we hadn’t have run a large scale campaign peoplewould have moaned and now we are they still moan.
Post 197. would appear to suggest that, after all ‘Enoch was right’.
204. I think its more to do with apathy and disengagement from mainstream politics resulting in.
1) low turn outs -that increase the importance of fringe parties
2) low membership - increases likelihood of entryism, and lax supervision from leadership
Iain , which ward are you referring to ?
Iain,
Your right to point out the nefarious role of ‘ Postal votes’ in all this as well
Have you seen the Dunfermaline Lib Dem web site, they claim Alex Salmond has called fellow SNP people “skivers”, because apparently they have not helped sufficiently in the elction.
Is this correct? Does anyone know?
Surpised because I would have the SNP would have been throwing the the whole kitchen as well as the sink into the election as well.
Sorry must learn to spell Dunfermline right, always done this since being a kid.
Just re read the web site, the word skiver is not a Alex Salmond quote, the qaote say “he will name and shame” the skivers, so that is a Lib Dem word.
“Huhne sets out Lib Dem ambitions”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4678210.stm
Not the most flattering picture of Huhne and not an overwhelmingly positive article? At least the Green wing should be pleased that his campaign will be “carbon neutral”…
As someone who had the dubious distinction of losing to the BNP at the 2004 local elections in Keighley, and have seen them in action elsewhere within the Bradford district, I would certainly say that the majority of their supporters know exactly what they are voting for. The point about the UKIP/BNP voters was interesting - the 2004 locals were on the same day as the Euro-elections (except they were by post here, but the ballot papers and literature were out at the same time, so it amounts to the same thing). Although we had no UKIP candidate at the local, we did have two independents and quite a number of people voted for the one BNP and the two independents under the impression that they were UKIP.
As far as where their support comes from politically, my experience was that a large amount comes from previous non-voters (at the two wards where they stood in the constituency in 2003, there was the best turnout they’d had since the mid 90s), of those who are switchers, the working class vote splits equally between former Tory and Labour and the middle class vote almost exclusively from the Conservatives.
I expect to be up against one of their number again this year. Do not underestimate their political abilities. They are working on the ground, which as Lib Dems know is effective, often in wards that Labour has taken for granted and the Tories and Lib Dems have not done anything in. The BNP workers are frequently the first politicians they have seen in years. It has an effect.
There’s been a very big move just now towards Campbell on IGsport. He was at 54-62 less than an hour ago. Now he is on 64-72. Huhne and Hughes have both dropped back.
Betfair now seems to be catching up. Huhne is now available at above 3-1.
I was just about to ask about that - Hughes slipped from a mid-price of 11 to 7, but I think Huhne has stayed steady Peter - I am pretty sure Huhne’s mid-price has not been above 26.
Someone from Yougov making a few bob?
Has there been any movement on Betfair?
Chrisco, I think Huhne was at 24-32 a short time ago, putting his mid-price at 28.
Yes, you are absolutely right. Apologies.
I think I must have underestimated Campbell’s lead before. I think he was at 60-68 and has moved to 64-72.
Anyone know: is there some way to view past prices on IGSport?
No Peter, you are right. He was at 64 this morning, then dropped back to 58 before he jumped up to 68 just now.
The tick chart only works for financial bets I think.
Thanks for that. A 10 point leap is obviously bigger news than 4 points (which is probably why I doubted myself!).
Best Betfair price on Huhne now 3.1 - up from 3.05.
D & FW - The SNP has moved out on the Betfair market from around 7/1 to around 11/1. Lib Dems steady at around 11.5/1. Labour still heavy oods on favourite.
Lib Dem cash call for the by-election has been oversubscribed ….. my offer of an enema set for the next Lib Dem car boot fair in Winchester turned down …… there’s gratitude for you.
223. Jack, I see that Bob Marshall Andrews is now ahead of Hilary Armstrong for Labour leadership……..
The BNP supporters I’ve met are ex-ex-Labour: they voted Labour for economic reasons under Thatcher, but are long since disaffected and not sure where to go. It’s therefore both true that they are former Labour and that their votes would otherwise go all over the place, or nowhere.
Their difficulty is this. They are nearly all fairly poor working-class, in many cases what some call the ‘underclass’, living on the edge of society with a mix of legal and semi-legal jobs. They aren’t, on the whole, scroungers and they hate people who are. Objectively, they mostly think they will be better off under Labour - more jobs, less pressure on family benefits. But they find New Labour alien: too middle-class, too cosmopolitan. They read the Express or the Mail and get a daily dose of stuff about asylum-seekers given special treatment, Labour councillors refusing to sing Jingle Bells, etc. They recoil. They have a rough life where they’ve had to work hard to survive, and they want to be put first. They want robust Britishness, and the sort of thing seanT writes here would be recognised by them as their sort of language (except on sex ‘n’ drugs). They hate lots of things, not just immigrants.
But it’s unfair to portray the BNP voters (or seanT) as a bunch of neo-Nazis. They’re not, and many who are tempted by them are put off by the fact that they’ve heard about the skinheads, the people with pictures of Hitler, the gang rapist who was made BNP regional organiser, etc.
But what else is there? UKIP is tempting, but they too are culturally alien to potential BNP voters. I’ve never met a UKIP member whom I didn’t get on with - they are almost all nice, middle-class people who yearn for an England that perhaps used to exist. The Tories are tempting, but they do remember being stuffed by Thatcher, and anyway they have gone too soft for this group.
So they’re a bit stuck, and I feel some sympathy for them though I dislike some of their ideas: most of us have little experience of the sort of life they’ve had. I had long conversations with some on the doorstep, and some of them voted for me with their eyes open because at least I was honest with them: I’m a middle-class New Labour MP with enthusiastically internationalist views, but I’ll work my guts out for them at a personal level if they need me. Elsewhere others compromise by voting BNP some of the time as a protest (we don’t have BNP candidates here), but mostly they don’t vote - which is one reason why the Tories, after trying hard to get anti-immigration votes in 1997-2005, have now somewhat given up on them.
The BNP members are something else - in my experience, very close to their steroetypical image, and simply nasty - some of thugs, some are hard-eyed salesmen types. I think that the best short-term counter is to point out to their potential voters all the criminal convictions that litter their hierarchy, and beyond that try to satisfy the reasonable things that their potential voters want. But it’s an elusive, unhappy segment of the electorate, and quite small and low-turnout, so the truth is that no party is really going to satisfy them, but also that the potential for BNP growth is probably limited. A populist nationalist party that kept the thugs out would perhaps be another matter.
209 - The original ’skiver’ story can be found here.
I know that pressure like this exists within the Holyrood Tories as well so I would assume it happens in most parties.
OK, I’ve just seen - on the TV news - lots of angry Muslims marching down a London street with placards saying ‘Islam will conquer Europe’, ‘Exterminate those who slander Islam’, ‘You’ll come running when the Mujahadeen come bombing’ and chanting ‘Freedom - go to hell!!’. The police did nothing.
Then a white man stopped to shout at the protestors, and he was jumped on by the police and threatened with immediate arrest.
Can someone run that by me again? It’s OK to march down the street threatening to ‘exterminate’ people, but it’s not OK to complain about these people. And Jack Straw found time today to condemn the newspapers that republished the cartoons, yet said nothing about the Islamists who are threatening to bomb, main, and kill journalists.
Sod all this worrying about the BNP’s vote. I think I might actually VOTE for the BNP.
Interesting to note that you thought it was relevant that the person who stopped to shout at the protesters was white.
Just an observation…
Excellent post, Nick. I probably have much less experience but recognise the picture you paint. I think one key problem Labour has comes here:
But they find New Labour alien: too middle-class, too cosmopolitan. They read the Express or the Mail and get a daily dose of stuff about asylum-seekers given special treatment, Labour councillors refusing to sing Jingle Bells, etc. They recoil.
Like it or not, most of your party would respond to this by suggesting the Daily Mail or Express is deplorable for reporting it, or that Christmas should be made more inclusive to foreign faiths by getting rid of the Christian elements and so on. Until the left recognises political correctness as a serious problem and doesn’t patronisingly believe the solution to opposition to mass immigration is to “educate” people out of their views, the same phenomenon will go on existing.
224 Andrea. A pink hippo would be ahead of Hilary Armstrong if it hadn’t decided to accept an offer from Cameroon to be on the Conservative Animal Rights Commission.
O/T I have been taking a quick look at the historical data for MORI and ICM polls, from 1979 and 1988 respectively on the links listed here, and it seems to me that, other than the 1992 elections, neither of these two have done so terribly as every seems to like to claim. They are at most 2% or so out from the GE results, in terms of their averaged end of campaign polls, in most of these. The only other main issue is that in 1997 the over-stated Labour, but were not overly pessimistic about the Tories.
Why, then, do we (including many people here) seem to have this general consensus about how the polls other than YouGov “consistently” overstate Labour and understate the Tories? Also, only YouGov seems to indicate any “leadership bounce” for IDS and Michael Howard, but neither of the others polls did. From an intuitive point of view, I detected no bounce with either of these leaders, which is precisely what the main polls show. So how has YouGov numbers on this particular become an article of faith, not just with Tories but seemingly with most others too? I’m not denying that YouGov appear to have some very accurate numbers with regards the Conservative leadership contest, Euro elections and so on, but surely they have not been demonstrated (yet) to have any hand over their peers on an empirical basis?
I’ve just seen - on the TV news - lots of angry Muslims marching down a London street with placards saying ‘Islam will conquer Europe’, ‘Exterminate those who slander Islam’, ‘You’ll come running when the Mujahadeen come bombing’ and chanting ‘Freedom - go to hell!!’. The police did nothing.
Then a white man stopped to shout at the protestors, and he was jumped on by the police and threatened with immediate arrest.
And again, until the left stops responding to events like this by blaming Ariel Sharon and talking about the plight of Palestinians, and instead realises that the sensible response is to change our immigration laws to keep these crazed fanatics out of the country, you’ll find that the working class voters Nick Palmer mentions feel the same attraction to the BNP.
230. Jack, David Blunkett and Diane Abbott aren’t ahead of her….could Cameron find a commission for them too?
225. Nick. I agree with a lot of what you say on this, except on how to deal with them. The negative campaigning against them has little effect in my experience (I spent 4 weeks on the doorstep trying to convince people otherwise, as did my fellow Tory candidates and the 3 Labour ones). The sort of people who vote BNP - from the type you mention, there is a middle-class BNP vote as well - feel as if the system is against them. If ‘the system’ is obviously against the BNP by actively campaigning against it, then they can feel an affinity: we’re put upon, they’re put upon therefore they must be for us.
The best way to sort them out is partly to deal with the problems the BNP play on and to talk to the voters. The sort of reasons they don’t now vote Labour when they once did are accurate, but it doesn’t mean you can’t do something about it. The Tory party likewise - go back a few decades and there were plenty of support for the Conservative Party in some of these areas as well. But if we as mainstream parties don’t even talk about the issues (except to say we can’t talk about them), then it will appear that the BNP are the only ones who are there to represent them.
227 seanT. “…. I think I might actually VOTE for the BNP.”
Might.
Huhne now available at 3.15.
233 DC would have to worry about Blunkett’s dog though.
NickP, so nice of you to allow that I’m not actually neo-Nazi! And I should also point out that I don’t ‘hate immigrants’ which is kinda implied by your wording (but I may by misreading).
Nonetheless a fairly well made point. I think you’re possibly right that a populist nationalist party that dropped the skinheads could take a fair old slice of the vote in this country. A kind of Pim Fortuyn party - indeed I think that’s what Kilroy wanted UKIP to be. But he was too egotistic and bonkers.
But the structure of UK media and politics makes it very difficult for a new party to break through in the Commons. So if we really want to get rid of the far right, we need the Tories to remember how to appeal to the white working class. Thatcher did it. It can be done again. I have hopes for a broad church under Cameron that could do it… But I am an optimist.
It would also help if people on the left stopped shouting ‘racist’ at any one who mentions immigration. This shuts the more nervous Tories up (not brazen types like me), and leaves the field open for the BNP.
Further to x28, it is a simple public order issue Sean. If there are a large group of protesters, and one individual is acting in a manner likely to antagonise them and that could lead to public disorder, the police will deal with that person. Same thing had a BNP member attempted to confront an Anti-Nazi League march, or an Irish republican at an Orange Order march.
233 Andrea. Of course :
Dianne Abbott : Conservative Private Schools Commission.
David Blunkett : Conservative Political TV Drama Commission.
240. And will the dog join the pink hippo in the Animal Rights Commission?
228. Chrisco. Explain. Why should it NOT be relevant that he was white? What I meant was, the guy who got arrested seemed to be just an ordinary passer-by, not another Asian activist, or a rival Muslim, or an angry Hindu nationalist.
I’m going to rise above your base suspicions, and presume you were just being provocative. But check the news footage, it is quite shocking.
241 Along with Oaten’s elephant?
239 seanT. “… Kilroy ..was too egotistic and bonkers ..”
Oopps there goes another window pane chez seanT !
237 Anna.
242 Which newscasters are showing the footage of the march and/or the by-stander getting jumped on, Sean?
232. This isn’t about crazed fanatics its about 2nd generation immigrants who (rather like BNP supporters) feel marginalised.
You have to understand something about Islam; it is the community that matters (and Muhammed and Allah and the Palestinians and the Iraqi are all part of that community). To fundamentalist Christians its the literal truth of the Bible (hence all the problems with evolution), but to fundamentalist Muslims it is their community which is sacred. For someone to defile that is the worst form of offence.
I am in no way excusing what these Muslims are doing, or attacking the publishing of these cartoons, but if you want to change things you have to understand why these people think what they think.
239. You may be right. Doesn’t look very good though. Lots of people walking down the street wanting to exterminate everyone… that’s fine. Poor bloke protesting at the would-be exterminators. Nearly arrested.
Funny old world.
343. Anna, are you sure you and Jack aren’t related?
248 I kbew there was something my Mum wasn’t telling me!
245. BBC News. Should be on News 24, if not I’d have thought Ten o’clock news. Its a startling report by Jeremy Bowen.
249. Maybe your grandmother…..JAck is 103!
249 Anna. Hello Grandmother.
Can you incite religious hatred against yourself?
246 Islam is also a statist religion that is not very comfortable with the idea of a seperation of religion and state. Christianity has never had a set of civic laws codified, so offences against Christainity (eg Jerry Springer: the Opera) are perceived as happening in the world, not in the Church (body of believers). Since this seperation doesn’t exist for many Muslim scholars, offences in society, be they satirising cartoons, legal homosexuality or (amongst conservatives) drinking alcohol, are regarded as offences within (and against) the body of Muslim believers.
The BNP doing well is an indictment of all the other parties, because they are not putting the work in to talk through the realities with the voters. Past Tory campaigns have been to blame for ‘dog-whistle’ tactics, and Lib Dem and Labour activists are also to blame for ‘pocketing’ or writing off support instead of taking time to win the arguments. The press are even more to blame, with their anti-Gypsy and anti-asylum rhetoric, giving people the impression that these kind of blanket prejudices are acceptable. We really do face becoming nasty, divided, polarised, violent nations all across Europe if we don’t stop to do the work of crossing some of the divides, class as well as race.
252 Wait a minute… That makes Andrea my grandson-in-law… Ok let’s stop this now - you’re both freaking me out!
256. Anna, it’s a point of non return….when I started to post here, I was a serious poster only interested in the swing in Rutland, then I started to read Jack’s posts and it was fatal………
255 The anger which fuels the BNP vote seems to me to be fueled not so much by actual out and out racism, but by frustration. It was a good point earlier that most BNP voters are not scroungers.
If you have little money and see others receiving lots of benefits, that really does create anger. If the press then reports a few stories about asylum seekers who claim benefits, it’s not difficult to see that anger being misplaced.
257 Well at least I didn’t start out massively serious to begin with. BTW what’s the Rutalnd connection?
x42. I am not being deliberately provocative Sean. My point is that would it be relevant if that ordinary passer-by had been black or Chinese or South American or Muslim for that matter? And would you have felt the need to draw attention to their skin colour had that been the case? And even if you had, why would it be relevant?
254. Well put! The primary historical (and horribly oversimplified) reason being that Muhammed ran a state at one point, while Jesus didn’t.
Therefore ideals of civic law etc. developed as part of Islam, but did not do so in the case of Christianity.
Andrea’s not interested in the electoral swing…
261 Statements in the Bible calling Christians to be “in the world, not of the world” are also helpful in the theology of the seperation of Church and State, which incidentally in America arose to protect the Church from being defiled, not the State.
Nick is correct to differentiate between BNP members who are largely obnoxious people and those who vote for them sometimes for generally racist little England views but in many cases because for whatever reasons they feel rightly or wrongly alienated from all the main parties . There will always be a relatively small % of voters who will therefore vote for them and in rare cases where special local issues are present they may get close or actually win a local council seat . As I have stated before , there is a danger that smokers in Labour working class areas will feel alienated and persecuted by the major parties and this could be exploited by the BNP .
My take on the Dunfermline byelection is that Labour should win on a reduced turnout with a much smaller majority . If and it is an unlikely if either the Lib Dems or SNP can convince the electorate that they alone are in with a chance then an upset is possible but the likelihood is that they will not be able to do this . The Conservative % should hold up again unless their supporters can see a clear chance to defeat Labour by voting for one of the other candidates .
Yesterday’s council byelections showed the Lib Dem vote holding up rather better than I expected .
259. I’m an admirer of the Mini-Macho from Rutland.
265 The who?
261 - I would that in the case of Christianity the early church was heavily persecuted, and so learnt and tought how to be a body of believers in a state that was not, and hence having a natural distinction between the two. “Pay unto Caesar what is his…”, “Be of the world, but not in the world” etc
264,”My take on the Dunfermline byelection is that Labour should win on a reduced turnout with a much smaller majority . If and it is an unlikely if either the Lib Dems or SNP can convince the electorate that they alone are in with a chance then an upset is possible but the likelihood is that they will not be able to do this .”
At the moment I’m thinking about the result could be similar to the Livingston’s one (but the with LD in second place).
263… Too slow with the same quote!
266. The MP for Rutland (who has many nicknames here).
270 Macho?
268 - Hi Andrea - Yes agree but still all to play for which is I think why Rennard is putting in so much personal effort into the campaign .
371. Why not?
270 Just found this quote on his website, which is quite cute really…
“People sometimes say that the all-knowing Almighty, seeing how small some of His creatures are to be, has made them boisterous to compensate. But I think that, seeing how boisterous Mr Duncan was going to be, the Almighty made him small, to limit the damage”
Matthew Parris, The Times.
273 More importantly why?
263. Indeedy, American colonists often fled to the New World to escape the religious persecuation of the state religions of Europe, and so didn’t want a state religion in the US as they feared it would create the same situation they had escaped from in Europe.
272. Mark, I think they’re putting some efforts also because they couldn’t allow to be passed by the SNP (like in Livingston the SNP couldn’t allow to be passed by the LD). When the by-elections was called (with new LD sex activities surfacing everyday), it wasn’t so sure the LD would have held the second place.
375- what’s wrong with him?
260. Zzzz. I’m not sure I even understand what you’re saying. I think you’re trying to sniff out some kind of ‘racism’ in my remarks to satisfy yourself. Snore.
But still… for the sake of clarity. Yes it was relevant to my post what colour the arrested protestor was MERELY BECAUSE I WANTED TO DIFFERENTIATE HIM FROM THE MUSLIMS WITH THE PLACARDS ABOUT EXTERMINATING PEOPLE.
Apologies for the caps, but you seem to be having trouble grasping this. I suppose I could have said the arrested protestor was ‘apparently non-Muslim’, or ‘nothing to do with the main protest itself and from a visibly different ethnic group’.
Lordy.
263. I think your statement on the defilement of the Church is a bit dubious Anna. The exact wording of the Establishment Clause of the First Amendment is “Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion”; it’s clear purpose is to prevent the establishment of a national religion or the preferential treatment of one religion/denomination over the other.
“Christianity has never had a set of civic laws codified”- the Byzantine state came pretty close, as did medieval Christendom. We’ve had plenty of Church/State problems in the past- just ask the Jews.
278 Nothing in particular, and he did make a citizen’s arrest in Nov 1995… I just think that for a 5′ 6 man to be described macho he needs to look… well… not quite like him…
282. That’s why I added the “mini”!
Pocket rocket
377 I agree with that Andrea but my information more than a bit sketchy is that the campaign started in a very pessimistic mood but the resilience of the Lib Dem support in their stronger areas has raised their sights a bit above keeping 2nd place . Perhaps the hopes are now too optimistic , time will tell .
276 - although Anglicanism was the state religion in Virginia until 1786.
276. Not wholly true either Tistoph. Many of the early Puritan settlers wished to set up governance in the image of their own faith, a la Cromwell, in the new lands they settled in; in fact, many of the early states did indeed have established non-Conformist churches.
280 True the founders didn’t want a national religion, but the discussions of the time attributed this to the fact that in Europe churches that had been subsumed into the state had become agents of persecution. Protecting the Church from state interference is the clear aim of the First amendment…
Which brings me onto 281 The Byzantines tried to run Christianity as a state religion and the CofE today is establishment, however the canonical Scripture of all denominations makes now provision for this. It took time for the theology to develop, however it has always been the case that civic power structures were not integral to the church, even if the church became integral in some states.
385. Mark, well, I think they will cut Lab’s majority, but I don’t think they’ll win the seat.
281. In the Medieval period Church and state were wholly separate. They had separate laws, clergy couldn’t be tried in the state courts, taxes were raised separately. Why else do you think Henry VIII was so keen on taking control? Surely wasn’t his personal religious convictions, he was a much as Catholic as his Father. He just wanted the money (Greedy overrated git!)
On the question of cartoons depicting Jesus, it’s notable you couldn’t depict any person from the Bible on stage in Britain until relatively recently.
290 There was also the matter of his annulment and a pregnant mistress to consider…
88: Anna, where does the Inquisition fit into your picture of civic power structures not being integral to the Church?
288 - Protecting the Church from state interference is the clear aim of the First amendment…
The aim of some of its proponents, but not all - certainly not of its author, Jefferson, who was not in a meaningful sense a Christian.
291 What about the mystery cycles from the 10th and 11th centuries?
290: What about the Price bishoprics and the papal states?
296 Sorry, Prince bishoprics.
293 The Inquisition were seperate from and often superior to the civic powers. Their official business was internal to the Catholic church, which happen to claim all people in various states as its members.
288. There is a great body of Supreme court legal argument Anna, that would dispute your assertion that this was the ‘clear aim…’
295: Sorry, I meant in post-Reformation Britain!
263. 288. The American colonies were a place of religious nonconformism and diversity - but were emphatically not a place of tolerance per se. Not only was Anglicanism established in the South, particularly in Georgia and the Carolinas; but a particularly militant form of Congregationalism was established in Massachusetts and Connecticut. The latter two were hugely inteolerant areas where one would often be chased out or even hung, simply for not conforming to localised establishmentarianism. The only place of genuine tolerance as we would know it, was the colony of Pennsylvania where William Penn had not only decreed such a state, but also encouraged the likes of the Quakers to come and settle alongside the dominant Presbyterians. His help to the Quakers at a time of persecution ensured their loyalty, a century later, to the Crown during the Revolution.
298: But the punishment (imprisonment, execution) was always carried out by the state.
281 and “Christianity has never had a set of civic laws codified”
I suspect that this is where I disagree with Anna on a technicality of religion, so apologies for boring everybody whilst I go of on one…
I would argue that Christianity has a codified set of civic laws - Exodus, Leviticus, Deuteronomy etc. Now these are laws given by God to Israel, but Christ came to fulfil the law not to abolish the law. Thus in Christianity we have the old laws and a new understanding and interpretation of those laws. The difficulty of interpretation is partly what leads to so much (unnecessary) bickering between Christians on technical points. Also of course, what was Israel in the Old Testament is now the Church in the New Testament, rather than the state, so I would say that they are laws that are incumbent on believers, rather than on the members of the state as we see it. (and indeed is how I live – I choose to tithe as that is a law given in the Old Testament that is incumbent on me, but I clearly don’t believe that that should be forced on people…)
294. My understanding of the 1st Amendment and Jefferson’s associated letter was that it’s aim was to protect individual religious freedoms from the state.
300 Fair point… We have alot of weird religious hangovers from the reformation. Most of the ones I know about are from later under Cromwell such as mince pie making still being illegal.
302 Not in Malta…
303: Do you really hold to all the Levitical Laws? I can’t think of a single Christian denomination which does!
306: My ignorance of the Inquisition in Malta is profound- OK, ‘nearly always’!
Sara, you do talk some terrible bolloks. Are you really saying it was recently forbidden to represent Bible figures on the British stage? Oo-er. Then why wasn’t I arrested for my brilliant nativity play performance as one of the Three Kings when I was six?
More news footage from Sky of the protests. One group of angry Muslims burned the Union Flag, and carried placards shouting ‘Massacre those who Insult Islam’, and ‘Behead those who insult Islam’.; there were some other placards extolling the ‘Fantastic Four’ (of 7/7) and saying Remember ‘9/11′.
These people were not arrested.
Nick Griffin, on the other hand, was arrested for calling Islam a ‘wicked, vicious faith’. And indeed he will be retried on this charge later in the year.
You couldn’t make this up. Someone somewhere is making a very big mistake. Or is the Establishment just sleepwalking?
303 Lennon, I’m a prayer book Anglican and hold that no Christian is bound by the civic precepts of the OT. I don’t know of any Christian denomination that has ever tried to apply Mosaic civic law to their community. Tithing is internal to the Church. Something like the year of Jubilee would have to be universal.
307 - No! That would be mis-interpretation… We no longer need to conform to any of ‘cleansing’ laws for example, for through the Holy Spirit we are all made clean. cf Jesus saying “What goes into a person cannot make him clean”
309. Serious question; what would you charge them with?
308 They have a museum all about it! Malta may have been an exception due to the Knights presence, but I must admit to general ignorance of the Inquisition other than of course “No-one expects the Spanish Inquisition.”
295 Mystery/Miracle plays - I might be completely wrong (long time since I read them) but I seem to remember that the characters aren’t biblical characters, but rather “Good Deeds” and the like? Perfectly prepared to be shouted down on this one though.
309: Honestly, SeanT, I may talk ‘bolloks’ in general, but this is perfectly true- though I admit the word ‘recently’ was a bit of a hostage to fortune, since I’m not 100% sure when the law was changed. But Oscar Wilde’s Salome couldn’t be put on stage in Britain for that reason, for example. (Though since it was the Lord Chamberlain who made the decision, I doubt he would have worried too much about your Nativity play, unless it was at the National Theatre or something.)
301. Maryland was also tolerant of all Christian denominations.
288. In fact, Anna, your argument does not make sense. For there was no such thing as ‘the Church’; as Anatole points out there were numerous different Christian denominations. So for there to be an established church to protect from ‘defilement’, the Congress would have to pick one denomination over the others, which was clearly an impossibility given the very radical mix of denominations Anatole has mentioned.
So if there was no such thing as ‘the Church’ to protect from the involvement of the State, how could a constitutional amendement be enacted to protect it?
309. SeanT, the point is that Islam is not a wicked, vicious faith.
But you are right that those protesters carrying such banners should be arrested for incitement to violence.
311 And cf Acts 10:15 “Do not call impure anything which I have made clean” - God. Peter has a vision in which God says that all the laws regarding clean and unclean food no longer binding as the meat has been cleaned along with creation at Calvary. God’s sweeping statement is generally applied to most things that had previously caused ritual uncleanliness.
316 - Maryland had a period from 1650-1658 where a Puritan regime outlawed both Catholicism and Anglicanism. And Catholicism was illegal from 1688 until independence.
314: What you’re describing is a ‘miracle’ play- ‘mystery’ plays did depict Biblical characters and events (Adam & Eve, the Flood, life & death of Jesus, etc.).
288. 316.
On the issue of the Byzantine state, I think the idea that it had an “established religion” is not quite correct, unless you make no distinction between confessionalism and a theocracy, which in theory Byzantium was. The Patriarchs of Jerusalem, Constantinople etc were not beholden to the Emperor and in fact ruled over him and guided his actions. Naturally in practice this was not so clear cut but it was a world away from the “establishmentism” of post-Reformation Europe. Confessionalism, after all, ultimately implies the power of temporal lords to decide religious practice; something neither the medieval Pope nor the patriarchs would have acknowledged.
316. The Amendment was more designed to protect individual religious freedoms from infringement by the state, or by a state (and by that i mean federal) set up Church.
316 The Church (capital C) as a biblical concept is the body of all believers past and present (also refered to as the Bride of Christ). Having the state make laws that are to be regarded as theological commands or dogma or statements about what it is morally acceptable for a Christain to do, is not found in the Bible and is explicitly rejected by most protestant denominations.
319. Yes, sorry bv - I was thinking of the 1649 Maryland Toleration Act, while forgetting all else that followed.
317. It is acually debatable whether Islam is a ‘wicked, vicious faith’. Islam is at war throughout the world - not just in the West, but in Thailand, Nigeria, the Phillipines, India. In many forms it seems to be viciously misogynistic - think of female genital mutilation in the Sudan, for instance - and wifeburning in Pakistan. The Koran has many bloodthirsty passages. It is congenitally anti-Semitic. Remember Darfur.
Yes, I think it is debatable whether Islam is ‘wicked’ and ‘vicious’.
Nonetheless, that’s not even the point. The point is that Nick Griffin, whatever we think of him, was expressing an arguable philosophical opinion about a religion at a private political meeting. He was arrested.
People carrying placards in central London, today, calling for masaacres, exterminations, and beheadings, and praising recent terrorist slaughters that took place at the end of my street, were NOT arrested.
Jack if you’re out there come and help, the conversation has become really serious!!!
323. Yes, but unfortunately legal documents, such as the United States Constitution, do not acknowledge such ambiguous concepts as ‘the Body of Christ’.
312. Behaviour likely to cause a breach of the peace???
Actually, I wouldn’t arrest them. Let them show themselves for the maniacs they are. But now would I have arrested the poor chap - yes, the poor white chap, chrisco - who shouted at them. And nor would I have arrested Nick Griffin.
I confidently predict some serious votes for the BNP in May. You read it here first.
Sorry, ‘Bride of Christ’.
(Which was incidentally a very good Australian TV series about a bunch of nuns in the 60s).
327 Bride, Chrisco, not Body
Is this the most O/T discussion ever?
Here’s an attempt to bring it back on: I’m not aware that anyone’s recently discussed which Lib Dem leader would be best/worst for Labour? Presumably the dream solution for the Tories is to be facing Campbell and Brown, and play the English card (hence not a good scenario for G). Hughes might split the London/ South of England vote, on the one hand, but also attract some of Gordon’s Left vote (especially if he disappoints people by following TB too closely). Huhne would surely be ideal for both Labour and the Tories- less experienced than Brown, more boring than Cameron, not going to steal the thunder of either party.
326 Anna.
…… sorry in broad terms I don’t do religion … very much a “hatched, matched and despatched” of the Church of Scotland !
Anna, don’t worry! I’ve had enough seriousness myself. I’m off for a nice beer. Skol!
328 I agree Sean, no-one benefits more than the BNP when fanatics start marching.
310 - “…internal to the church”. Err.. confused - was that not my point with the connection between Israel and the body of Christ (the Church). Titheing is a civic law within the church, and thus still valid; I would regard all of Canon law (ie that law which holds in the Church of England, as decree by Synod) to be the church civic law, and thus comparable to the OT Israelite mosaic law where it is applicable to do so.
Probably too late in the office to be talking of this so I’ll finish with a different question - anyone know of decent (old fashioned style) pubs in Newcastle (preferably central) that serve good quality real ale?
325. Sorry Sean, but that is largely rubbish.
Islam is not at war with anyonee. Female genital mutilation takes places in numerous cultures (not just Islamic), and does wife abuse, honour killings and the like. In Hindu India there is as much mistreatment of wives (and killing of females baby infants) as any Muslim country.
The Bible also has many Bloodthirsty passages, homophobic passages etc.
Darfur is a hugely more complex problem, and if anything Islam has been mroe tolerant of Jews than Christianity has been. Jews and Christians were accepted in Muslim countries during the Middle Ages as being “people of the book”, while we Christians were busy burning and enforcing conversion of Jews and Muslims.
325. A few hundred years ago SeanT, Christianity was at war all across the globe. It had a few hundred years head start on Islam…
332 Having been doing “Elementary” financial derivatives all morning and then spent the afternoon discussing the exact nature of the Holy Trinty, I’m not really up for “doing” religion either…
338 What subject do you study!
339 Maths, but I seem to have developed a side line in theology for some unknown reason… oh, and history…
321: Sorry, can’t leave this one! Have you looked at Eusebius of Caesarea’s Life of Constantine lately?
Less gnomically, the patriarchs would certainly have said they ruled over the emperor, but that wasn’t how it worked in practice, at least most of the time. Who called most of the ecumenical councils?
I agree it isn’t the same as an ‘established’ church- but church and state were pretty intertwined.
309 - Well why aren’t those protestors arrested? At least for disturbing the peace. I have read messages elsewhere of people saying they will boycott muslim owned shops, as if all muslims are being blamed for the actions of a few.
This is an appalling situation where small groups of people, whether it be Nick Griffin’s merry band of convicts or these threatening protestors stir up racial intolerance and get away with it.
336. Apologies for the spelling.
331. I think you underestimate Ming and Huhne. There seems to be a tendency of Tory voters here (sorry if you are not Sara) to say how good a choice Hughes would be.
Perhaps this reflects an unconscious fear of the other two?
342 “Well why aren’t those protestors arrested?” It’s called freedom of speech. For a thousand years or more people in this country have had the right to insult anyone they felt like because of their race, facial characteristics or any other reason they wanted. It’s only recently that the fact this might hurt people’s feeling has been considered…
344. But those protesters slogans were an incitement to violence Anna, which is against the law.
343 Or possibly Hughes would be better than Ming or Huhne for the Tories, but Ming or Huhne would be OK anyway?
336. The Last Post (promise): Tistoph, Chrisco, we can agree to disagree as to whether Islam is a ‘vicious, wicked’ faith. I think you might find that a surprising number of women - feminists in the West, wives in rural Pakistan - would have a difference of opinion with you. Not that wives in rural Pakistan would ever be allowed to speak for themselves.
Similarly, gays in Iran might like to take issue with you, when they are not being thrown off high buildings.
The point is - as is evidenced by our arguments - this is arguable. So Nick Griffin was making an arguable point. Just expressing an opinion. He was arrested.
Yet people walking through London today with placards saying ‘Europe is the cancer, Islam is the answer’, calling for beheadings and massacres, saying ‘Europe - learn from 9/11′ and ‘the solution is the slaughter of those who insult the Prophet’, and essentially praising the terrorist atrocities of 7/7 in the same streets where those murders occurred…. these people were… not arrested.
And if you can’t see a tiny dissonance there, well good luck to you.
I need that beer.
343 Tistoph - unconscious?
345 ‘Exterminate those who slander Islam’ isn’t specific against any one particular person. As you pointed out earlier, states don’t tend to protect abstract nouns in law.
325 it is debatable whether Islam is ‘wicked’ and ‘vicious’.
Funadmentalist religion of all hues have a tendency to be wicked and vicious. Look at the extreme Chritian demands for censorship of Jerry Springer Opera, terrorism in the name of fundamentalist christianity in the USA. Go back in history to the inquisition, the persecution of the Jews in this country etc.
Don’t judge all those of the Islam faith by their extremists.
“Those who slander Islam” is not an example of an abstract noun, it is a very concrete noun phrase.
251 Not being an expert in English grammar, I’ve no idea whether I meant abstract noun. What I meant to say was that the category “those who slander Islam” as a subset of the population humanity does not have any universially distinguished elements and hence is ambiguously defined. It is therefore uncertain as to whether there exists a member of this subset and hence as no law in this country protects hypothetical people, e.g.x belonging to “those who slander Islam,” the protester was (correctly) not arrested.
Anna - We cannot say it is alright to allow these few extremists to urge for another July 7th and to urge that anyone that insults them is murdered. I don’t believe we have tolerated this for 1000 years.
All this will do is feed the media with sensation and exageration, horrify many millions of moderate people, create divisions and hatred and boost the like of the BNP.
These extremists should have been arrested for either disturbing the peace or inciting violence and Tony Blair should make a statement to calm things down.
352 - Another slogan used by the protesters was “Sever the hand that drew”. This is clearly an incitement to violence against specific individuals, and I suspect “those who slander Islam” has the same reference.
347. I was not objecting to you having a problem with the Islamic marchers, or saying that Nick Griffin was arguably justified in saying what he said.
I was objecting to you attacking Islam. To blame the Islamic faith for the marginalisation of women or for terrorist atrocities is to see an easy answer to a complex problem.
And I can promise you that voting BNP won’t make it any better and it won’t make it go away.
348. May have meant subconscious…sorry. I’m reading for an essay while posting on here, and I’m male so not great at multi-tasking…
353 The other option of course is to ignore them. If they aren’t protesting in public where the security services can keep an eye on them, then they’ll be canvassing in private which is much more of a worry. If the protesters start damaging property or blocking the highway, that is a different matter, but no matter how abhorrent what they were shouting was, it is dangerous to place limitations on freedom of assembly.
Apologies to anyone who wants to come back at me on my last post (or any previous ones), but we’ll just have to agree to disagree.
Good night all!
Anna - You have to think what effect on the public these threatening protestors are having. We are in a similar situation to the likes of Abu Hamza, who the tabloid newspapers were asking on their front pages for years why he had not been arrested.
The net result is a lot of hatred and anger is generated (and incidentally in my view that suited Tony Blair’s agenda of his war and proposals for draconian new laws).
Do you want people to turn against muslims? Because that is what is going to happen by letting a few extemists dominate the news, and because they are not arrested, it makes it look like part of an accepted norm.
355. I have no intention of voting BNP, FFS! I was just saying - predicting - that the BNP vote will go up, bigtime, in May, Because of the events of this week. And the attitude of the police, Home Office, government - the double standards displayed today, the tolerance of homidical Muslim threats compared to the intolerance of working clss white anger - will be to blame.
I fail to see how a religion, Islam, which holds that a woman is worth 2/3 of a man, cannot be held in some way responsible for the wretched treatment of women within that religion. Indeed I think you are a blinkered fool to deny this.
That said, I am not at all sure myself whether it is remotely right to call Islam a ‘wicked, vicious’ faith. It is at best a crude caricature, at worst a nasty untruth. I have travelled widely in Islamic countries, and seen the good side of Islam too.
But I do know you should not be arrested just for holding an opinion.
What I find intriguing about the debate, especially as it concerns the second and third generation radicalised Muslims is this - the left has told indigenous Britons for the last forty years that they must and will be educated out of their prejudices, yet seems utterly unwilling to extend the same treatment to Muslims who now harbour prejudices that are in many cases far more alarming and liable to lead to actual violence. Why is this? is it due to a deep sense of self-loathing among people on the left? or just plain cowardice?
343: That’s the first time I’ve ever been called a Tory- still recovering from the shock!!!
As regards underestimating Ming and Huhne- I think very highly of Ming, I just think he and Gordon are too alike in some ways (Scottish, ponderous, gravitas with chips), which is an obvious advantage for Cameron (can’t stand the fellow myself, but he has impressed me a lot so far with his ability to look attractive to swing voters). Huhne I know nothing about, but he comes across as quite boring (on the basis of his Guardian iPod), and obviously has even less experience in Westminster than Cameron. Which is not to say he wouldn’t do a good job- just that he’s missing the ‘wow’ factor, which is an important element of a modern party leader’s appeal to the floating voter. Sadly (I say as a Gordon Brown fan).
359. In Hindu India they kill large numbers of females neonates and abort large numbers of female foetuses (to the tune of thousands if not more). In China they also abort female foetuses because to a similar tune. In Africa there is a group, who, when a elderly relative dies, take a young girl, bang her elbow with a rock and cut off one of her fingers.
Women with HIV in the developing world are often forced out of their communites if it is found out they are infected, and are blamed (even in Christian areas) for being vectors of the virus.
Women are socially marginalised in pretty much every country, in every region, in every climatic zone and in cultures of every faith. It’s much more to do with their position in society than their faith.
I agree that Nick Griffin should not have been arrested, and I find these banner waving Muslims we are talking about deeply offensive. But I don’t think they should be arrested to. And I expect the police threatened to arrested the “white” protestor because in shouting at the marchers he was endangering himself and also was likely to spark a response, that, given the obvious mood of the crowd, would not have been desireable.
360: I think all sides need to be educated out of their prejudices, including the left-wing middle classes. But that’s best done, surely, by isolating the nutters and listening to the legitimate feelings of abandonment and erosion of identity felt by the group they appeal to. Anyone can wave a provocative banner- what you want is to quietly knock on people’s doors afterwards and have a chat with them about whether this is really a sensible way forward.
Religious hatred and free speech. Has DC made any comment yet?
361. I am eternally sorry for confusing you with a Tory! I meant no offense.
Personally i find GB frankly highly grating. To me he comes across as very arrogent, which Ming doesn’t. I think Ming could work quite well in attracting those voters who are anti-spin (he’s a straight talker), and would prefer to vote for someone who has been around for a while and has some experience (which Cameron lacks almost completely).
Huhne is very clever, and he has potential, but he does lack the wow factor. I was tempted to support and vote for him at one point, but I feel I am returning to Camp Ming.
I fear Hughes would be a disaster and would split the party, so for me he is a no-go area.
I hope that Cameron will come into a spot of trouble before too long, but he may not, in which case it will be hard for us whoever we elect. But even if things continue to do well for him I think Cameron will have less of an impact than some are suggesting, he’s too sleazy and Blair like.
363. That was an ironic post, I assume, or just very naive. It reminds me of that old (Not the Nine O’Clock News?) sketch about the vicar saying “we have to get away from this confrontational attitude towards the devil - rather than ‘get thee behind me Satan’ I prefer ‘Satan, why don’t you sit down and have a nice cup of tea?’ “
Having been backed down well below 3.0, Huhne has drifted back out to 3.5ish in a few hours. Why?
I truly despair of this country, it is going down the plughole so fast it is unbelievable. Islamic lunatics can parade in the streets calling for murder whilst people are arrested for criticising them. This is the thin end of the wedge, within a decade or two there will be Sharia law in parts of England because self-hating liberal w*nkers think that fundamentalist woman-haters, gay-killers and infidel-murderers are wonderful human beings who we’ve cruelly oppressed and have to allow them the full expression of their ‘culture’.
366: Neither ironic nor naive, believe it or not. At least, the last line was only lightly ironic. It’s a well recognised law and order principle that in this knid of crowd situation, you make a calculated decision about what kind of policing you’re going to use at the time, based on a proper risk assessment etc. Often that will just be let a march go ahead (don’t know if it’s illegal or not), but find out who the small group of organisers/activists behind it is, and keep an eye on them (with a view to heading off future actions) while meanwhile trying to win over the others by either being sweetly reasonable or applying judicious, low-level threats, or a mixture of both.
It’s great when people come out into the open and tell you what they’re thinking and feeling (and give you plenty of time to film and identify them). It’s the ones who’re sitting at home keeping their slates clean you want to worry about.
368: The best way to prevent Sharia law in Britain is not to isolate Muslims but to integrate them. After all, plenty of Muslim women love being in Britain and love the freedoms they have here.
225 & 234 - good posts - I also know Heanor fairly well - people vote BNP because they appear to be the only party that cares for the likes of former working class white males - the demise of the coal industry & manufacturing hasn’t helped - there was a chance for UKIP to tap into this in/after the 2004 Euro election but chance wasn’t taken - BNP polled 4.9% in this election which would have been much higher if R.Kilroy-Silk hadn’t taken this anti-immigration vote into UKIP - BNP only stood in 119(?)seats last May but if you extract the votes they obtained and spread it out over the total seats they would have obtained over 6% nationally.[a big assumption]
370. Very true. I expect there are many Muslims sitting at home now shaking their heads at the actions of this minority.
It is very difficult, however, to integrate these people without getting them out of the situation they are in. Many are poor and feel marginalised (like some BNP voters); tackle that and the fundamentalist views will die. Hatred of this kind is always fuelled by perceived inequality.
370 - “Integration” has changed its meaning somewhat since the Hechts anglicised their names.
371.”BNP only stood in 119(?)seats last May but if you extract the votes they obtained and spread it out over the total seats they would have obtained over 6% nationally.[a big assumption] ”
Vino, yes, they stood in 199 seats. They saved 34 deposits. Their average % in seats they contested was 4.3%
370. Agreed, but they aren’t being integrated, they are being ghettoised by misguided political correctness.
374 - Andrea - are you sure it was 199 seats?
276. ops, it was a typo. 119, not 199!
“It contested 119 seats but failed to win any.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/3896747.stm
sorry Andrea, was indeed 119 not 199.
378, 377. Sorry
377 - Andrea - I assumed they obtained 192,000 votes in 119 seats and would therefore obtain 1,042,286 votes in 646 seats which equates to 6.3% - not accurate but a guide.
279. yes, I’ve already corrected it at 278.
The saved deposits were:
Barking, Dewsbury, Burnley, West Bromwich West, Dudley North, Dagenham, Keighley, Stoke on Trent South, Bradford South, Stoke on Trent Central, Bradford West, Oldham West, Stoke on trent North, Batley&Spen, Rotherham, Halifax, West Bromwich East, Sheffield Brightside, Hyndburn, Pendle, Bradford North, Walsall North, Thurrock, Pontefract and Castleford, Ashton under Lyne, Warley, Blackburn, Morley and Rothwell, Normanton, Birmingham Yardley, Rother Valley, Birmingham Hodge Hill, Wentworth, Walsall South,
381. I know. That was what my apology was for; correcting you when you had already corrected yourself.
380. Vino, I suppose they had contested their best seats and so their % will be less than average in other seats.
it’s like with Respect which did pretty well in many seats they contested, but they have very few potential voters in seats not contested.
382. Sorry, i didn’t see your apology. I was typing all those seats!
381 - Andrea - what is striking about Heanor & Loscoe in comparison to the towns/cities in post 381 is that all of them I would have thought have high ethnic populations whilst Heanor & Loscoe ethnic population is very low.
Just out of curiosity: the BNP saved 34 deposits; UKIP 38, the Greens 21 (+3 by the Scottish Greens), Respect 9, SSP 2, Veritas 1.
383 - Andrea - would disagree with you on that - Respect only targets one group who are not everywhere whilst BNP target group is everywhere - I for example have only had one chance to vote BNP [Euro 2004]so you may support the aims/objectives of the BNP but never get the chance to vote for them unless of course PR changes that.
384. No worries. How far right is the Italian National Alliance, just out of interest (in comparison to the BNP)?
386 - Andrea - interesting, what is it when expressed as a % i.e BNP successfully saved 28.5% deposits?
387. not sure if I agree. It’s not that if the Greens poll 10% in Brighton and Hove, they will poll the same if they decide to contest all other South East seats. They could, but it’s assured.
388. The leadership is (now) less right wing than the BNP. Some of their supporters are still very right wing. BNP is more similar to Alessandra Mussolini’s new (mini)party.
389. UKIP 7.6%
Greens (Scottish Greens included): 11.8%
Respect 34.6%
SSP 3.44%
Veritas 1.51%
Evening all, I’ve just written something over on my blog about Blair’s reshuffle, which has been imminent for so long that I suppose it might never happen. Anyone else heard the rumour that Jack Straw might leave the Cabinet? I’d be interested to know what others thionk about possible new entrants to the Cabinet. I’m tipping my little munchkin Hazel Blears, Caroline Flint, Tony McNulty and James Purnell. Anyway, more on http://www.iaindale.blogspot.com
391 - Andrea - thanks - impressive!!!
390 - Andrea - I’m not saying that,what I’m saying is the Greens obtained 258,000 votes from 183 seats and therefore it is reasonable to assume they could have obtained 910,754 votes if they had stood in all 646 seats - not accurate I agree but a good guide.
393. Vino, correct me if I’m wrong, but are you assuming that if the Greens have averafe 1409 votes in those 183 seats, would they average 1409 votes in the other 400 seats not contested?
I think it’s a a bit too strong as an assumption.
394 - Andrea - spot on - surely it’s the same assumption that polling firms make.
395. But but polling firms have (at least should have) previously built a good sample. Parties don’t choose the seats to contest at random. I suppose there’s a reason if the Greens haven’t contested the other 400 seats.
396 - Andrea - it must be very difficult for the “others” parties to set up candidates and the machinery to do this in seats where they have not stood before especially with the private funding of political parties that this country has instead of public funding.
397. yes, but I suppose they would go before for the seat where they think they’ve the best prospects.
The lack of prospects in some seats could be due to the fact they haven’t stood before (and that they haven’t a local bas), but they would need years before arriving to their national % (even if there’s potential there). So that’s why I think it’s too strong to assume they could poll the same in all other not contested seats in the same election.
Let’s say the Greens hadn’t contested Broxtowe last May, they would have still averaged 1409 votes per seat (in the other 182). With your assumption they should have polled 1400 in Broxtowe too instead of the 800+ they polled.
398 - good point,but of course they could have contested seat X where they could have averaged 2,100 votes to balance Broxtowe out - as I said my assumption is only a guide.I shall have a look at the BNP results at the 2001 GE to see if my assumption can verify their 2005 performance.
385. Just back and caught up with the postings this evening. I only really know about the seats around the Bradford area with any any degree of confidence, but it was no coincidence that Nick Griffin chose to contest Keighley last May (and ended up getting arrested round here). In a sense he miscalculated, as it is a very insular place and doesn’t welcome ‘offcumdens’ in elections - Griffin didn’t even bother to get a local address for the ballot paper. Ann Cryer also will have benefitted from her courageous stand against forced marriages in the Asian community (which predates the BNP becoming active in the area). Had she chosen not to take that stand, which potentially alienated a large muslim constituency within a marginal seat, and had Griffin been a local man, I believe he could have won.
399. yes, they could have seats where they could poll better. so why do they choose to contest Broxtowe and not seat X?
A note which could sustain your point more than mine is that BNP did very well in some seats contested for the first time last yeas (ex Halifax), so they’ve potential in 2001 not contested seats too.
Presumably some times they contest seats for no other reason than they’ve got a local candidate who wants to stand in his/her home constituency.
401 - because the party has no-one locally to tap into the support that is there.
BNP in 2001 contested 33seats and obtained 47,129 votes therefore based on that they should have obtained at least 169,950 votes in the 119 seats they contested in 2005 - they obtained 192,000.
I too have been out nearly all day but may be around a bit now, being full of coffee.
The U.S. Constitution says what it does about religion, and refers explicitly to Congress, because in 1776 it was by no means clear that all the colonies/states would agree to stand together - there was a Tory (i.e. pro-British) majority in the Carolinas (and possibly also New York) which distrusted the New Englanders. The “strict constructionist” majority now on the Supreme Court may yet decide that individual States may give preference to one religion over another (so long as the Federal government does not). It does as Anna implies protect the various denominations from themselves, but that is serendipity rather than intention.
402 - alex - exactly.
403. Vino, how do they perform in the 33 they contested in 2001? wee they up or down?
BTW did anyone read the diary piece in the Guardian a few days ago about George Galloway’s meeting with Rainbow George Weiss? Galloway apparently had not been aware that it was possible to stand in more than one constituency at a general election
Why has Ian Hislop grown a ridiculous beard?
406 - Andrea - good question - I honestly don’t know but I will look at it when I get time.
409. Ok, Vino. I declare this House is adjourned at 15 minutes past 11!
Any firm news on where and when YouGov poll of LD members is out?
404. Wasn’t the ’strict constructionist’ view almost the purpose of (at least a good number) of the colonies in the first place - somewhere where each denomination could practise freely, hence the virtual or actual establishment within that state (or commonwealth etc)? The constitutional ban on a national establishment is therefore essentially an extension of the states’ rights principle, rather than religious freedom per se.
410 - Andrea - da-accordo!
Libdem MP Julia Goldsworthy will appear in the new celebrity reality show “The Games”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,17129-2023866,00.html
[412] That’s certainly my understanding.
[414] You’re slipping - where’s the picture of her :D?
415. Innocent, you’ve just to ask!
http://www.juliagoldsworthy.org/images/photos/jg_westminster.jpg
But I thought she was already knew here….at least by Book Value!
[416]
416 - yes, I can see what I’ll be talking about with my university friends for the weeks the programme’s on TV…
413
417. If I’ve understood well, she has to play sport in that reality show.
418- will you buy a TV? Just to see her?
412, 415 - current precedents are that the Establishment Clause applies to state and local governments as well, e.g.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Board_of_Education_of_Kiryas_Joel_Village_School_District_v._Grumet
Though as IA says, an increasingly conservative Supreme Court may rule otherwise in future.
404. IA, Anna was not arguing that the seperation was to protect the denominations from themselves, she was claiming, in her words, that it was “to protect the Church from defilement” by the State.
420. The case in question is interesting and in some ways parallels our own incitement to racial/religious hate law debate, in that what makes the issue contentious is the crossover between Jewish religion and Jewish race/culture. Sikhism presents the same dilemma.
392. Meant to comment on this earlier as it is at least slightly more on topic than the framing of the US consitution (not that going off topic has ever stopped a post).
If Jack Straw does leave the cabinet - and it could hardly be a surprise - it opens up a real opportunity for Blair. In 1989, Margaret Thatcher recognised that she needed a reserve chancellor in a position to fill Lawson’s place should he go. Major came in and in 18 months he was PM. This time, we know that Blair will go within 2-3 years. Whoever becomes foreign secretary will get a massive boost to his (or her, but I very much doubt it) chances. Yes, Blair has more or less given his backing to Brown now, but events could change things, and it would give him the option to appoint not a reserve chancellor, but a reserve PM.
[421] Yes, that’s what Anna claimed, but given the central involvement of non-Christians like Franklin and Jefferson in the drafting, I’m highly dubious… and on that note, time for the duvet
The post by Nick Palmer on the BNP earlier in this thread is one of the best I have ever read on this site. As for the protests, what has struck me on the whole are the small numbers involved with only hundreds protesting across the Middle East not thousands. I wonder if the media is guilty of hyping this all up too much. I also think we should be wary of taking the spiel from Muslim leaders as representing the views of ordinary Muslims. I get the impression that the leaders are far more hardline than those they represent.
424 - Andrew M
The suggestion that Islamic leaders are more hardline than those that they represent is questionable. In the Islamic world, multi-party elections often produce hardline governments (e.g. Palestine and Iran), and few have suggested that these elections are “rigged”. (That said, Iran’s candidate selection system is “unusual”.)
In the West, we “expect” democracies to elect moderate, non-aggressive governments. On the whole, it’s a reasonable rule-of-thumb. However, Hitler and Mussolini both came to power in Western democracries, so the theory is not infallible.
425 - I’m not sure how that contradicts Andrew’s point. Not everyone who voted Hitler wanted the extermination of the Jewish race. Not everyone who voted Hamas wanted the destruction of Israel.
426 - Andrew M stated “I get the impression that the leaders are far more hardline than those they represent.”
I see no evidence for this assertion.
“Not everyone who voted Hitler wanted the extermination of the Jewish race.” There is no evidence that Hitler had decided this when he came to power. All the evidence points to him making this decision around 7 years later.
“Not everyone who voted Hamas wanted the destruction of Israel.” This is undoubtedly correct, but can you be sure that the majority of Hamas voters wanted Israel to survive? I very much doubt it.
In neither case, is there any reason to believe that the leadership was more hardline than their electors when they came to power.
But the fact that they were elected isn’t evidence that they weren’t (more hardline).
Andrew didn’t make an “assertion”, he gave an impression.
In the case of the Nazis, anti-semitism motivated the party membership - but was not hugely popular with the electorate at large - for whom appeals to German nationalism and anti-marxism resonated much more strongly.
WRT Islam and Christianity, Christians have always drawn a distinction between secular and religious authority (Luther’s two swords) whereas I don’t think Muslims do draw that distinction. Hence, at a philosophical level, Christians find it easier to accept that secular law and religious teaching ought not necessarily to be one and the same.
Results of LD poll for MORE4…show MC in the lead and Hughes a long way back
369 “woman-haters, gay-killers and infidel-murderers are wonderful human beings who we’ve cruelly oppressed and have to allow them the full expression of their ‘culture’.”
That’s a very cruel way to describe the BNP membership, Houndtag.
Go Huhne. Leadership Hustings in Maidstone this morning. Only Huhne turned up. I was backing him anyway but shocked that Ming sent Clegg (pooor surprisingly) and Hughes couldn’t even be arsed. If you can still make money on it I feel members will go Huhne.
I’ve heard Ming has sent Nick Clegg to most of these events - too tiring?
Ming wrote in the FT that he didn’t stand for leadership last time because he couldn’t take the pace of the hustings - and that was BEFORE cancer etc etc.
Who else has heard of Missing Minger??
EM
Simon Hughes still leads one poll
Despite claims of hypocrisy from gay rights groups, almost 80% (79.7%) of the Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual and Transgender (LGBT) community have selected that Simon Hughes as their choice for Liberal Democrat leader.
88% of the readers of PinkNews.co.uk , the UK’s most visited gay news provider said that allegations of hypocrisy levelled at Mr Hughes should not affect his chances of securing the leadership.
More at http://www.pinknews.co.uk/news/articles/2005-414.html