The Great Hughes 2nd Preference Gamble
February 27th, 2006
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Why did Ming’s lead on Hughes 2nd preferences drop 19% in three days?
At this stage in the Tory leadership contest there’d been seven Tory member polls and the only outstanding issue was whether or not the 39 year-old’s share would top the 66% mark.
Contrast that with the Lib Dem race where the only members’ poll in a newspaper was on January 7th - a few hours before Charles Kennedy’s announcement. This showed that Hughes was being beaten by Ming by 49-21. From then on Hughes looked out of it - a view that was reinforced by the statement he had to make about his private life.
The only real question since then was how the Hughes second preferences would split.
Two privately-funded polls by YouGov seemed to provide the answer. One where the fieldwork took place from February 2-6th and another during the period February 7-9th. Although there have been a lot of rumours we have never seen full details of the former. The latter, paid for by a Huhne supporter, was made public.
Although the first preference figures from the Feb 2-6 poll have remained private a poster on this site under the name of “Webpoll2″ did make some information available at comment 27 in this thread. At the time there was a lot of scepticism about its authenticity but the YouGov boss, Peter Kellner, confirmed that it was correct. So of the limited information available we know that:-
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Thus the Campbell-Huhne 2nd preference gap from Hughes supporters dropped from 22% to 3% in little more than three days. Could this be plausible? Did the huge change reflect the momentum of the Huhne campaign or could there be specialist polling factors?
The first survey was said to have been commissioned by a Ming supporter and we have not seen how it was structured, what other questions were put and the order in which respondents answered them We do know that in second poll the voting intention questions were put last - and when that happens there is always a suggestion that people’s responses might have been conditioned by earlier answers.
All will become clear on Thursday. This is a close call although I’m just inclined to think that Huhne has it. The latest betting is here.
Mike Smithson
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Nobody knows. I read a little into Mings nastiness over the weekend. He must be rattled but that doesn’t mean he should be. I also notice that the last MP to declare, Greg Mulholland has come out for Huhne. I doubt someone as ambitious as he is has done so to back a loser. Finally I think people voting in the last 10 days have told me that hughes/huhne huhne/hughes 1st/2nd preferencs are hardening as for the first time a “stop ming” feeling has developed. This is probably to little to late.
Finally there is the campaign. Huhne has undoubtably won it but he had zero support to start with and ming had an unsurmountable lead. Can this really have been overturned in just 6 weeks? The electorate is predominately arm chair memebers who vote on name recognition.
3pm thursday!
I asked this question a good while back, but no answer was suggested. It is, in contests such as this one, has a runner come up fast on the outside and gone on to lose?
Ming said “I’ve learned from Simon how not to answer the bloody question” at the London hustings. That might have been a turn-off for some devoted Hughes supporters.
BBC carrying a report this morning on the outcome of the Power Enquiry led by Helena Kennedy - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4753876.stm.
Some interesting stuff - most of it whacky. A lot of it decidely Lib Dem in nature… lower voting age to 16, an elected House of Lords, restrict donations to parties, everyone hug each other and get along, etc, etc.
Personally I don’t see how ticking to give your party £3 of taxpayers’ money alongside your vote is going to mobilise millions more to turnout.
The full report is available here - http://www.powerinquiry.org/home.php.
I see from the BBC summary of the Power Report that no mention made of the biggest elite….the EU.
Look forward to downloading and reading the full report later.
[4] I’m not sure what’s “Lib Dem” about an elected House of Lords - I thought that was (insofar as anything is in these days of “policy commissions”) Tory policy too, and the Government also says it wants a further tranche of Lords reform this Parliament.
As to political donations, is TrueBlue happy with the idea that someone like Roman Abramovich could buy a political party? Or perhaps (s)he is one of those giddy “libertarians” who think that anyone whose value system is different from the market’s is morally suspect.
As for “everyone hug and get along” - well, if that part of Power had been in place our old friend the Legislative & Regulatory Reform Bill wouldn’t have got drafted, methinks. Votes at 16 nobody wants, though perhaps it could be made permissive - i.e. get a Grade 1 in a relevant GCSE and you can claim a vote.
Suppose the response to the terrorist attacks in London had been a “grand co-alition” of Labour and Tories - as it might yet be following another - even though it would have, what, 530+ MPs it would still have the votes of less than 40% of the electorate.
Whether Power has got to the root of the problem is debatable, but I doubt anyone thinks there isn’t a problem.
The Dour One tries to be democratic in today’s Guardian, but comes across as me-too.
He goes on about communities and how wonderful things are since 1997 so now power can be devolved.
But not to England it seems. The democratic deficit in the Nulab constituional ’settlement’ is still a forbidden land for this MP from Scotland.
Until that imbalance is dealt with the Labour party should not expect to be seen as credible in plans to pass power out of Whitehall.
The last paragraph of the Dour Maifesto must be either a joke from Mr Statism, or evidence that he lives in a parallel Nulab world the rest of us can only imagine as it is so distinct from reality.
Founding our constitution on liberty within the law means restricting patronage wherever it is, in any way, arbitrary - at all times building trust by making it clear that government is not the master but truly at the service of British people.
http://news.independent.co.uk/people/pandora/article348003.ece
An unsigned document entitled “Chris Huhne’s Hypocritical Personal Share Portfolio” was circulated at recent hustings.
I suppose the LDs have to use their typical tactics in their own contest too……
Just trying out the smiley things!
A message for the spiring “Baron of Crouch End” if he is there - the men in white coats from Huhne Mansions will be coming to take you away on Thursday.
2 did not work try again
-:)
And again
8. Do you know what it claims is hypocritical about them? Same goes for his nine properties. Huhne is fairly free-market in his politics is he not (even if his party don’t always publicly appear so)?
The smileys all seem to be little Liberals - I know we have been hogging the site recently but it is a bit unfair.
Not sure anything to add re election, we have very little information other than the betting, which I assume is a minority sport. Re runners coming up on the outside (Tim Z) - timing is everything, if done too early the overtaken horse has time to recover. We will see!
11. Try taking the nose out, Goupillon.
12/Julian - onee “hypocritical” aspect was - how someone can be on the one hand claim to aspire to be “carbon neutral” and green but also be a backer of mining/smelting and oil companies - which make a lot of Carbon Dioxide (among other nasty gasses) The indie contacted Huhne - who claims he dumped all the holdings that looked questionable ahead of the campaign (apart from Centamin Egypt) - BP, 2 Gold Mining Companies… Here’s the link to the list of his holdings/former holdings from his website;
http://64.233.179.104/search?q=cache:_BDREcxf7RYJ:www.chrishuhnemep.org/page.php%3Ffinancialinterests+%22chris+huhne%22+centamin&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=2
14.
???
2 - Tim Z if you follow this link and then read the full article by Simon Radford, you will find an argument that such a scenario is pretty common.
http://pigeon-post.blogspot.com/2006/02/four-more-bloggers-for-ming.html
General: Some of the comments Hughes has made about Huhne will also affect his supporters use of their second preferences.
I am not sure I really understand why Simon Hughes is having such a hard time in this election. Can someone explain it to me? Is it really the gay thing or is there a fundamental weakness in his postion within the LibDems?
Carbon dioxide is what puts the bubbles in tonic water. I tend these days to leave the tonic out - Just my small contribution, hic, to minimise CO2 emmission!
16. The dash - just use the colon and the bracket. But I think the winking one is nicer.
18 In my opinion Simon Hughes is good in debate and is a fair orator but he is very much lacking in the planning and organisational skills necessary to be leader. The Gay thing is irrelevant.
Simon Hughes is now seen as somewhat ‘dishonest’ due to the media coverage of the gay thing (which personally I think is unjustified, btw). I am surprised by how much his popularity as apparently dropped, however. Personally I don’t think his campaign has been very proffesional.
I actually sent my Ming-ticked voting paper off yesterday, although I almost went to Huhne over the recent stroppiness of the Ming campaign.
20.
[23] Yup, they’re all groucho Club smileys, nudge nudge, know what I mean
20. And a few of these just for you
And I dont want any rude comments about winking from anybody else!
20 Sorry I,m obviously no good at winking
:lol: 
I remember Simon Hughes in 1990 making one of the worst speeches I have ever heard. It was at an NUS rally in Hyde Park - against student loan introduction. In front a load of real Trots, and a lot of moderate Lab and Lib students, as well as non-politised students, he went on about the House of Lords rejecting the bill, and that there may even be members of the House of Lords in crowd today. The Trots just shouted “Tory”. It was just embarrassing.
He showed a lack of judgement and was totally unable to tailor his speech to his audience. No oratory skills on show at all. I have met Simon and he is a nice enough guy, but I have no idea what he stands for and he does appear a bit of a throwback to the 1970s sandal and pavement politics era. I think most of the Parliamentary party - who are a much more sensible cohesive lot that the era of the mid eighties - see that. He is not popular in the party, and not a team worker as he is too unreliable.
I think he is getting support from older activists - veteran pavementeers. However, the Lib Dems are always told that they have few policies and the perception is that would not change under Simon.
Surely its a bit harsh to judge someone on a speech made 16 years ago? To be fair to Hughes he must have improved since then - I’m not his greatest fan but he doesn’t seem that bad at oratory, he certainly isn’t as boring as Chris Huhne is.
25. Thanks :wink:. This one’s also good:
8 and then ). Which means he can occasionally crop up of his own accord.
28 - fair enough, but I am always surprised when people say what a great orator Simon is. He is no George Galloway (best I have seen), or Michael Foot, or Churchill… I don’t really think he is a better orator than the other two candidates. Is he a better orator than CK (probably not), than Paddy (certainly not), than Steele (probably not), than Thorpe (certainly not)… I just can’t really see what Simon’s strengths as a candidate are I’m afraid.
I’m not sure who comes out worst as a result of this Huhne share portfolio story - Huhne himself as being a posturing hypocrite, or his opponents for being sanctimonious lefties. A close call I think, but either way not good for the Lib Dems’ image.
I find that Hughes speaks well to Lib Dems. But this is partly because he is complacent and prepared to say what we want to hear. In terms of addressing the public, I prefer Ming - especially when he has been put under some pressure, when his passion comes through.
Huhne writes persuasively - but I don’t find him convincing as a speaker (this may be because I think he has been saying things he does not believe during the election campaign, in order to please activits - at times he seems to hesitate between what he believes and what he thinks he ought to say).
31 Livung in glass houses and stones comes to mind
17 Peter Pigeon, let’s see what you dropped.
Aaah, another Ming blog link! So surprised here I nearly dropped my mug. Not. Mind you, I nearly dropped off reading part of Simon Radford’s puff. Soooo interesting. :yawn:
I read another Ming blog, sad that I am, which indicated that after Ming gets up from the throne, minions rush in to do the necessary, such is is the esteem in which he is held.
21 Goupillon. Now don’t be silly, the gay thing is highly relevant. There were many reasons for Hughes winning big-time against Tatchell in the Labour Party’s donkey-jacket mini-era. Howver, aside from Michael Foot, the big one was Hughes making out that he was the straight choice. This is from the Guardian, 25/02/83:
“This ganging up of the vote behind Mr Hughes, together with the high and insistent level of vilification which infected the campaign…” Tatchell was shafted by the Hughes campaign for being gay. Now Peter Tatchell is an honourable man and has clearly gotten over it, but people don’t like politicians to be hypocritical, which Hughes was, in a particularly nasty way. So when Hughes finally owned up, that was that. As Matthew Parris said recently, he’s had it coming to him for a long time.
It was very, very hard to be gay and out in 1983, so I’ll give Hughes that. But he is a politician and so in this still-unforgiving age, for a man with his history, his chances were non-existent the moment the truth came out.
Comment from a local Councillor at the weekend - heard Simon on the TV (Thursday evening?) remembered why she supported him - had the passion she wanted - 1 votes to Simon (Ming second choice).
He must have something to have won and held on in Bermondsey.
18: Personally I rate Hughes as a communicator and he raises some well thought points on social issues but he scores badly on organisation and parlimentary party support. For me an additional issue is his Christianity — the Lib Dems are the only hope for any secular issues. Having said that I notice Evan Harris was one of his early backers…
13 Icarus et al. I hoping to post some intel from the Lib Dem bun fight later today ….. I’m waiting on a few more calls.
On the Vicars second preferences I think it’s probably women !!
On voting ……… IF the ballot goes to a second round I’d expect it to split around 50/25/25 in favour of Ming/Hunhe/Don’t give a toss.
32. I think this is where Ming gets his ’statesman’ thing from - it has little to do with his age, and more with the fact that he seems to do well under pressure, ergo would be good in a crisis.
7 Blue2win - do you think the Dour One is channelling Stalin? The language is updated a bit, but otherwise?
My betting markets closed - Befair is worse than the M6. And IG’s political market maker doesnt seem to work on Mondays.
36. Re. Evan Harris - I disagreed with him in health, but he’s a complete star for his efforts on the religious hatred bill.
34 I was only referring to SH potential leadership credentials - his sexuality is not relevant to his abilty (or lack of it). However you are I must agree that the bad judgements he has made in the past do have relevance to voters in the leadership contest.
41: Indeed — I heard when I was in Dunfermline that that coup was almost entirely due to him — and he got little, nor sook (?!) no, credit. The Tories were simply willing helpers. He is the only MP in parliment has the appetite for taking up secular issues, which he does with great effect. Ah, happy days when he was my MP…
Icarus/40 - don’t fear - Betfait is down for planned upgrade scheduled between 07:00 and 11:00 GMT. Just 40 mins to go until Ming gets backed down to evens!
44
:lol: 
:lol: 
:lol: 
:lol: 
Deary me, can we *not* do the Bermondsey by-election campaign again! Simon didn’t run a homophobic campaign. End of.
I think there is a greater-than-25% chance that Hughes outballots Huhne on first preferences. Ming is the winner by miles in that scenario. This is because
* Many votes will have been sent off early, before Huhne band-wagon had real dead-trees exposure
* Even now, we have very little info about how people have voted, and the straw polls in existence are not conclusive. I include Yougov in this category, given the small sample size, the push-poll nature (voting question asked at the end) and the fact that their pool of Lib Dem members differs significantly from the overall membership. They are *by definition* more likely to be exposed to the online campaign — which is Huhne’s area of strength.
* Many to most Lib Dem members will have had no information whatsoever apart from broadcast news and national papers. The sort of contact most Lib Dem members do *not* have includes hustings attendance, watching a QT or Sky special, reading blogosphere, speaking / listening to local party bigwigs. That leaves name recognition as very important.
Needless to say I have already backed my convictions (lay Huhne) on Betfair with shirt, trousers and several pairs of socks. Bring on Thursday…
Oh yes he did.
44,45,47 Ican see Huhne Mansions could be very busy on Thursday
35.”He must have something to have won and held on in Bermondsey”
yes, he was straight…ops, he wasn’t
sorry, but I couldn’t resist it, you served it on a silver plate!
47. Michael, I was going to stick my neck out and say the same - I’d say it’s considerably greater than 25%. (Plus the one hustings people are most likely to have seen was the QT one, in which Simon performed pretty well.)
46. is it common in UK to apoligise for having made nothing? or is it just a LD thing?
49. which one?
47,51 - Is there a betfair market on which you can bet on 2nd vs 3rd preferences etc?
53 The one I referred to in 9
52. Hughes apologised for having not done anything to condemn what was coming from other quarters.
52 - Yes, its an inherant trait of being English. Next time you’re here deliberatly walk into people - at least 75% of them will apologise to you…
56. Valerie, actually he didn’t say that.
Question For Tories :
Which Tory Shadow Minister has been briefing the Daily Torygraph on “the ongoing seismic displacement of power and influence from the traditional right to the centre …….. the right don’t know how far David is prepared to go to become Prime Minister, and that includes a coalition.”
Answers on a postcard to the Sean Fear Preservation Society (Tebbit Revenge Wing) c/o The Blessed Margaret Mausoleum Trust, Finchley Blue Rinse on your High Barnet.
57. Lennon, is it irony, a tease, an attack, what?
60 - Sorry, not meant to be any of those - just being honest. It genuinely is a trait of the English to apologise even when completely inappropriate. (Anthropologist Kate Fox describes the test of walking into people in her book - “Watching the English”)
61. uhm, some posters in this forum don’t have this quality
62 - I think that the rules of behavioural norms are different on-line… but I take your point!
62. That’s because they are anonymous on here. Kate Fox, and originally George Mikes in the hilarious “How to be an alien” published in the late 40s or early 50s, have both idenitfied this trait. Fox suggests it all comes down to embarassment. Being anonymous takes away the prospect of embarassment, so you can be as rude as you like.
N.B. George Mikes, a pre-war Hungarian immigrant, had one chapter on the British and Sex. It read in toto: “The British don’t have sex, they have hot water bottles.”
63. Lennon, I was told to never ask for an apology…..so I supposed that UK people aren’t people who make apologies.
btw, Hughes quote was:
“I apologise for any part that I wittingly or unwittingly played. Nothing should require people to suffer the sort of abuse and indignity that he [Mr Tatchell] did in that campaign.”
Now I fear that tonight I could dream a possessed Hughes being led by a malign force to do something against his will: a sort of LD horror!
“Icarus/40 - don’t fear - Betfair is down for planned upgrade” - Yes thats what they say on the M6!!
Just been called by the Simon Hughes for leader campaign and asked if I was planning to support him. I said I had voted and was asked how. And asked how my wife voted.
Bit late isn’t it, to be doing this sort of canvass?
63/65 etc… Lennon, you need to be careful about that deliberately walking into people test. 75% may apologise, but 10% at least will thunp you!
68 thump not thunp…
68. are you speaking for personal knowledge?
Icarus/67 - Its actually true! - have a look - the appearance has changed a bit - bit mire like “windows XP”
71 - yuk. Why all the wasted space to the right of the candidates’ names at the same time as the odds are crammed in together?
70 No, it happened to a (male) friend. Women can get away with walking into men and get 90% of them to apologise…
73 - and the other 10% say thanks.
74
For all of you PB.com addicts who’ve been waiting for a Lib Dem leadership prediction thread to put your pundit credibility (and not just your money) where your mouths are, there is now a competition over at The Apollo Project.
Post your entries in the comments box, folks: http://liberalism2010.blogspot.com/2006/02/leadership-prediction-competition.html
72 Agreed! The old format was better…
76. Stephan, no photos, we and Anna will refuse to take part!
78 - please, Andrea, I’m a serious politician, y’know
78 Andrea. “….we and Anna will refuse to take part!”
Mhhhhh …. “we and Anna” …. are you hiding “Hunky” in your boudoir or have you become a member of the Italian “We” royal family ?? …….. HRH Prince Andrea Luxuria of Milan !
80. jack, it should have been a “me”!
ah, I just saw Vlad at the news.
BTW for a fascinating story concerning a former Nazi slave turned former Tory MP have a look at this. Its well worth a read:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?view=DETAILS&grid=&xml=/news/2006/02/27/db2701.xml
6 - Where is the evidence that ‘nobody’ wants votes at 16. I know that the UK Youth Parliament democratically elected by 11-18 year-olds supports this measure. I would agree that perhaps most people don’t care but I can’t see it being that unpopular with many people.
There is actually few logical or practical arguments against lowering the voting age. Nearly all the arguments used (they lack life experience, they will be too influenced by family/friends, they don’t know enough about politics) was also used as arguments against extending the vote to women. 16 is a more logical cut-off point because that is when compulsory education ends and the state allows young people to make life changing decisions, whether to stay in education, get a job etc.
In terms of practicality the evidence suggest that this move would increase turnout. At the moment people get their first vote in a general election at any time between 18 and 22 depending on the electoral cycle. Evidence from the social market foundation showed that people who can vote at 18 are more likely to vote than 21 and not just that but this cohort is more likely to continue voting at subsequent elections. By lowering the voting age to 16 everyone will get their first vote between 16 and 20 meaning more will get their first vote at or before 18. This is evidence virtually nobody knows about but is important for the debate. More can be seen in this parliamentary debate http://www.theyworkforyou.com/debates/?id=2005-11-29a.138.0&s=iraq
76 - Stephen nothing happens when I click on the post a comment box.
I think that turnout will be 70%
First prefs 45 Ming 35 Chris 20 Simon
2nd prefs 60 Ming 30 Chris 10 no 2nd pref
Have just rung IG - their book on the Lib Dem leadership is closed - I could have closed my position at a slight loss (due to their 8 point spread) but decided, gulp, to stay in.
84 Icarus. You are a worrymonger ! …. “It’s Ming to Win in One”
84 - try holding down CTRL when you click on Post …
84 - How could Ming get 60% 2nd pref, when you imply that only 55% aren’t voting for him as 1st pref?
84 - How does Chris lose 5% from 1st to 2nd prefs… surely this isn’t possible, or am I misunderstanding the voting system?
The second prefs refer to Simons - we will never know the 2nd prefs of those who get through the first round
89 - Aah - I thought it was the total % once 2nd prefs had been allocated. (if you see what I mean)
88 Question to all the Mingers:
In the unlikely event Mings Odds shortening dramatically and Chris’ odds lengthening Will they bottle out and bet on Chris/ lay on Ming? And if so at what odds would they do this?
Icarus, if you’re that bullish then there’s a whole bunch of money to be made on Betfair…
Michaer at 47. All Lib Dem members received election addresses from all three candidates (coloured two sides of A4) with their voting papers, but I agree that the % of members who have been to a hustings is probably less than 5% as was the case with the Tory leadership race.
93 - Thanks, I was confused for a minute!
FYI - I have an open bet on Chris at 3 on Betfair… (not expecting to get hit, but I never got in on him when he was at the long odds availiable, and think the race is uncertain enough to warrant insurance / solidify guaranteed profit… if market fluctuations make it a possibility).
96. I agree!
Yes, Robert 92, but as someone has already said my shirt, trousers and socks are already pledged!!!
If the odds shortened then I would feel more confident and less likely to lay off - though none of us really know what is happening.
Betfair have just opened a market on majority at next GE with option on betting on No Overall Majority .
Which of these 2 statements is true :
Government to crack.
Government minister to crack.
Government minister is on crack
Government minister is a fraud.
Government minister to crack down on fraud.
Government minister to crack down on electoral fraud.
Government minister cracks over fraud !
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4753200.stm
And “No overall Majority” is favourite (only £206 matched on the market however)
97.”as someone has already said my shirt, trousers and socks are already pledged!!!”
Naked Icarus in shocking by-election result!
Conservatives: our old voters thought he was a pervert and they stayed at home.
Labour: Dennis Skinner canvassed for us and told us he hasn’t found any support for the naked man party. we’re shocked and surprised
Greens: our voters thought it was a hippy nudist party and they stripped and so they weren’t allowed to enter the polling station
UKIP: it’s EU who allows such obscene acts to take place!
SNP: Nicola Sturgeon thinks that he won thanks to SNP vote going up.
Icarus I hope you have pledged the bottle of Bombay Blue Sapphire as well. Some things are more important in life.
Soorry I missed out the not
101 Andrea.
…… other comments …..:
Lib Dems : “No seat is safe ….. and Icarus has a fine seat.”
Jacobite Party : “A triumph for true kilt wearers everywhere !”
Mrs Icarus : “His majority may be tiny …. but the voters liked it !”
Sean Fear. “Not nearly Conservative enough !”
Rik W. “The Lib Dems are finished.”
Marcus. “I fully endorse anything negative about the Lib Dems.”
Mike Smithson. “ICM got it wrong again …”
Andrea. “Nice bum ….. may I post a link with you and Glenda”
Icarus. “Please tell me Ming will win …….”
04. Thanks for the light relief Jack I have got to gbtw
Though am actually working my way though a bottle of Bombay at the moment (well not actually now) my favourite is Tanquary 10. Would not be so silly as to risk losing my fix!
Re votes at 16 - surely there has to be consistency on when people have become adults.
If people are to vote at 16, then they should be allowed to drive at 16 and most importantly be on a jury at 16.
Yet I wonder how many innocent people if charged with a crime would want their liberty to be determined by a 16 year old? I doubt many people would.
If 16 year olds are not old enough for juries they are not old enough to vote.
107. The only thing that votes at 16 will do is reduce turnout even further. If Britain is full of 16 year olds desperate to vote, why is it also full of 18 year olds who couldn’t give a damn?
Red Ken has asked the High Court for a stay of execution :
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/london/4755142.stm
To Icarus in prediction thread: you don’t need 50% of the overall vote because the third placed candidate’s voters may not all transfer their vote. If 50,000 vote, Campbell gets 22K, Huhne gets 18K and Hughes get’s 10K and at the second preference none of Hughes supporters transferred then Campbell wins with 44% of the overall vote. Which is 55% of those expressing a prefence at the final stage but less (obviously!) than 50% of the overall vote which remains at 50K no matter what Hughes supporters choose to do.
Pensioners are exempt from jury service, should they be deprived of the franchise?
111. I’m not prepared to rule it out……
108- See the link. The evidence shows that the earlier people get to vote the more likely they are to vote and to continue to vote, the difference is quite significant about 15% points. However even if only (say) 20% of 16/17 year-olds voted, so what? Surely those 20% who do want to vote should be allowed unless there is a good reason not to? My view is that we should err on giving people the vote rather than excluding them. Even if overall turnout figures were down there would still be more people voting so we would still have a more democratic system.
111 - So are (most) solicitors and (I believe) all judges… think this may be a bad example to use.
113. So why 16? Why not 12?
114. They definitely shouldn’t be allowed to vote…..
113- See my original post at 83
116. it seems a re-run of the age of consent debate with all tories rising to say “why 16 and not 17?”…..
107 - No, we have different ages for lots of different things. 16 for smoking, 18 for drinking. When it comes to voting I believe we should err on the side of giving people the vote rather than denying them the right to vote. The burden should be on those arguing against votes at 16 to prove their case.
Of course you have plenty of apathetic 16-year-olds: but ditto 18-year-olds and 25-year-olds. In fact turnout rises fairly steadily with age up to the pensioners at the top of the reliability scale. So there’s not an obvious argument for the current age there.
I’m sceptical of the idea that we have to have one single age of adulthood for everything, when common sense says that the transition to maturity is a gradual one. It seems reasonable enough, with the nature of the modern state, to say that starting to vote should correlate with starting to be economically active, so I marginally favour votes at 16. There are problems with the argument, though - you wouldn’t want to give the vote differentially according to whether people work, and most 16-year-olds don’t. Then again only a small majority of 18-year-olds aren’t in full-time education…
119. After my slightly flippant interjections earlier I’m impressed by the evidence that you’ve shown (now that I’ve read it - sorry). However the burden of argument should always be on those arguing against the status quo…
115 - Because they finish compulsory education and (potentially, at least) start work. In practice this probably tends to mean that it’s the age where they stop being treated as children and start being treated as adults. It’s not the only possible cut off age, but it would seem to make some sense. On this same basis there’s also a “no taxation without representation” argument.
120 book value. Are Liberal Democrats allowed to use the word “sceptical”? …… even outwith the European context. Surely that’s a black mark against you in the little orange book ??
Russell - quite right, though would a good Lib Dem not put 1,2,3 just for the pleasure of taking part in a vote with a choice!?
Where are all Chris’ supporters? It is 11 - 3 -1 (Campbell -Huhne - Viscount Thurso) at the moment
221. You are a Conservative and I claim 5 of your new allies in the Labour party !
125.”I claim 5 of your new allies in the Labour party !”
Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell, Diane Abbott, Lynne Jones and Bob Marshall Andrews?
125. Indeed - as I was writing that I had a personal epiphany; “oh so that’s why I’m a Tory!”. Actually it proves that I’m a conservative rather than a Conservative, which is slightly upsetting, after all I thought I was a Liberal Conservative….
124. My prediction is based on 20% of Simon Hughes supporters having eyes only for him….
126 Andrea. Those usual suspects are far too conservative for the liberal Conservative party of 2006 !
27 Russell. You are confused and should claim membership of the Liberal Democrats ….. until you feel better.
Re betting: you can back Ming at 2.44 but only lay Chris at 1.85.
So £100 bet on Ming would (if he wins) get you £144 but if you lay Chris with the risk of losing £100 then your profit (if Ming wins) would only be £118.
As we all seem to agreed that it is a two horse race, why the difference?
Jack W,
Awaiting your reply.
Commentator. 20 From Following thread.
Generally and especially for betting purposes this far out I try to avoid predictions.
However, the electoral maths are against the Tories. You need to be in the early mid forties. I don’t detect that level of movement. The Cameron honeymoon has stalled in the highish 30’s and if the voters general impression of him is that he is able, amiable but a flip flopper that figure is unlikely to improve.
The Lib Dems for all their recent difficulties appear more resilient in the polls than many would think and if their share of the vote remains in the 18-22% let alone higher, then the prospect of a maj Tory government recedes. Remembering that vote share and Lib Dem seats is usually unscientific !
Then there is Gordon Brown. For all our expressions about the “Dour One” he beats Cameroon hand down on best PM polls. He’ll also enjoy a bounce in the polls from the fluffy coverage when he takes over ….. all babies, smiles (forced) and sofa interviews.
On balance ….. and with health warnings intact I would say the odds strongly favour a Lab Maj 20 plus through to a Lab/Lib Dem coalition 300/50 situation and all points in between.
Two Tories in the Lib Dem leader prediction thread admit they cannot understand the alternative vote system.
I admire their admission of failure in intellectual capacity, and I admire the admission that people elsewhere in the world can understand and use it, but they can’t.
Come on folks, you are not that stupid.
Thanks Jack.
I think the numbers favour Cameron in Best PM question so far, when weightings and a Lib Dem leader are added. GB is simply not that electable. He’s just not likeable. And he has been on TV not at all. When he becomes PM he will have to go on TV more often and people will be exposed to his surliness and lack of charisma. He’s a raincloud and Cameron is a sunny day.
I thought Dunfermline was significant. I believe you will see voters doing the anybody-but-labour thing from here on in. And I also think that as Brown’s voodoo with pensions starts to unravel it will be the issue he fails on. Pensions are going to kill him.
I am sure that the polls are substantially overestimating Labour support and that many Lab voters will just stay home. Lib revival helps the Tories mostly as somebody pointed out - Sean Fear perhaps. They will lose in Tory/Lib marginals and win in Labour/Lib ones.
33. I understand. I just don’t care enough to examing the LD rules. MC will win. That’s what I’ve taken from following this. And he will win far more comfortably than commentary on this site has suggested. That’s my best guess. We’ll see Thurs.
Interesting that after all the talk of Huhne winning the predicitons comp is firmly in Ming’s favour
133. Tories aren’t stupid…. and they have a sense of humour….
Actually, Russell @137, I happen to have worked with one who was indeed stupid, and had absolutely no sense of humour whatsoever. He was returned to Parliament as a Conservative MP at the last General Election. (Unfortunately, another colleague had rather too much of a sense of humour, which is probably why he was not selected as a candidate in the first place.)
I see the papers are full of Labour mortgage scandal, with backing for beleagured minister from Tony Blair. Deja vu? Presumably a vacancy in the European Commission can be found for Ms Jowell? But how long will she hang on?
139- At the moment there is no firm evidence to suggest any wrongdoing. Certainly there are questions which need to be asked but so far nothing has been proven.
140. They better had be asked, is all…
34 Commentator. Don’t throw all your hopes in the “likeability” or charisma stakes”. Here’s why :
Margaret Thatcher … the plague was more popular.
John Major ….. the charisma of a discarded toilet roll holder.
Charles Kennedy …. extremely likeable but not a leader.
And the list goes on …………
all the way back to Baldwin, Chamberlain …… Attlee.
……………………………………..
I’ve said it before but the most sobering aspect of the next election for the Tories is the list of gains required for a maj of 1. It is startling ….. including seats where the Tories are in third place !!
142 Maggie did have charisma though… whether or not you liked her…
134 I think your analysis is on track. The current press line is ‘the stalled honeymoon’ and ‘the public see Dave as a flip flopper’. The first line is widespread and is in vogue simply because they have nothing significant to say so a story has to be ‘found’ ie made up despite polls not supporting the story.
The second line comes from the left and follows the Nulab politburo attack, but even the special Dour One for Dear Leader poll in the NOW did not support this line although it was assiduously spun as doing so over the weekend.
The time and effort Nulab are spending on Dave is very encouraging indeed. And so far they haven’t laid a glove on him, just made whooshing noises in the air like a sparring boxer without an opponent.
And those non-stories are grasped like passing lifeboats from the Titanic by lazy and gullible hacks but rapidly fade in the changing winds of British politics.
124 Regarding the good Viscount have you noticed his resemblance to Lord Lucan - look up
http://www.libdems.org.uk/party/people/viscount-john-thurso.html
and
http://www.ladylucan.co.uk/photo8.htm
Tessa Jowell has the full backing of the Prime Minister according to the official Downing Street spokesman.
So she will be gone by Easter, then.
138. The exception that proves the rule!
146 Who dowe think is going to go first: Ruth Kelly, Tessa Jowell, Hilary Armstrong?
143 Anna. Agreed. The public respected the Iron Lady but didn’t warm to here …. and she faced a split and useless opposition.
144 Blue2Win. Regardless of the motives, accuracy or fairness of the coverage the press does influence opinion and if the Daily Torygraph goes offside it will spell trouble for Cameron, let alone the rest of the press.
Normally it takes about 6 months for the wider public to form a pervading opinion of a party leader ……. many are still to make up their mind.
146: All three at the same time in te re-shuffle.
148 Anna. None of them ………. awaiting unexpected exit in the reshuffle ….. if it ever happens !!
150/151 I don’t think it would be wise to shuffle out three women a once… I reckon Ruth Kelly will get a different brief and Armstrong and Jowell will just disappear…
146.
The ‘Times’ has it: “Signor Berlusconi said last week that he would not provide any help for the British lawyer: “Somebody used my name to cover himself from the tax authorities in his own country and so as not to have to tell the partners of his legal practice exactly what he had pocketed,” he said.
He said that the case against him was “unfounded and absolutely without proof” and was timed to influence the election.
So that’s Tony Blair’s Tuscan holiday gone then? He’ll be reduced to Cliff Richard’s and his Egyptian businessman buddy when he needs reliwef from John Prescott/Cherie.
152: “Armstrong and Jowell will just disappear”
presumably after a whip-round of Labour MPs to supply bath and acid?
The “Stalled Honeymoon” idea is flawed; I agree, it’s just shorthand from lazy journalists who do not have anything else to write. It is like the “First 100 days” story, which all journos feel compelled to write.
I think that David Cameron is a lot more clever and cunning than journalists (and other non-Tories) give him credit for. He is playing a long game - he does not need to do anything or say anything yet. GB is getting quite enough bad publicity, with the rest of NuLab helping stir the pot when required. The Lib Dem Leadership contest is not doing them any particular favours - it is certainly not boosting them in the way the Tory contest did.
Cameron is still a force to be reckoned with - and he knows it.
Over the weekend I read Wheatcroft’s Strange Death of Tory England. One of the facts that struck me was that Major’s honeymoon makes Cameron’s look utterly insignificant. Major took the Tories from 34% to 44% in a couple of months. Cameron has taken them from around 34 to around 38 according to the polls this weekend.
156 Peter, Major was in power! People were paying attention to him because his policies were about to be enacted. Joe Public doesn’t care what Cameron says at the moment, since his policies would be acted on for years.
Yes, peter, but he still has time on his side!
157 Sorry meant “won’t” not would in second line
155 Augustus. Cameroon might want to play a long game but the public rarely allows leaders to do so. IMO he has at most 6 months left to cement his image in the voters mind ….. and by the same token the opposition parties to portray him as unsuitable for high office.
155 - I agree, and my fiancee has pointed out a number of Cameron articles in the non-political press recently. (eg. Cosmopolitan had an interview with “The hot new Tory leader”) All very positive and glossy, making Cameron come across well with absolutely no policy or substance at all. It is this sort of thing that will get the very un-politically aware to start to form opinions of him, and positive opinions in general. Wish it wasn’t so, but suspect he knows what he is doing as far as connecting with the voters is concerned and making the Tory brand a positive one again.
157 Anna. Do you recall William Hague’s tenure !!
It took the voters but a few months to assess Hague as a nerdy political anorak with a dodgy line in head gear ….. and no amount of subsequent policy or spin rid them of the idea.
Result …. utter disaster … need we go onto IDS …. No !!
162 Don’t think the general perception of Cameron is as nerdy political anorak with dodgy line in head gear, nor deathly boring as with IDS. In neither case it wasn’t policy position that brought those leaders down, it was image.
We’ve discussed this before, and I know that you can’t see DC’s attractions, but in comparison to many of his HoC counterparts he IS goodlooking (NB cosmo isn’t reknowned for irony). He’s said a few worthy things on the environment, seems caring enough, has a lovely family and talks well… That’s all people are going to pick up on for at least another year!
163 What has happened to my typing today??? Should say either not neither…
155. I completely agree. The idea that a new opposition party leader has a ‘honeymoon’ in popularity in the same way that a new government does is flawed. Many people who you can count on to vote in the next election will still be barely aware of Cameron.
While it’s true that in this period he could potentially ‘queer his pitch’ by making strategic errors, so far he has been making all the right noises to change the Conservatives’ image. When the time comes to make a serious choice about the future government, the people they need will be much more likely to vote Conservative, even if the polls do not yet reflect all of this movement.
165. It may be a stalled media honeymoon rather than a stalled popular one (the media writing about itself - surprise) but by the time those people become more aware of Cameron, it’ll be in a more hostile media environment.
163 Anna. I wasn’t implying that Cameroon was a Hague/IDS clone, more that time is not on a leaders side when the public formulates their collective view.
The danger for Cameroon is that the public enjoy the image but distrust the substance. Which is why Blair’s flip flopper charge must not become part of the electorate view of Cameroon.
You correctly note that Cameroon’s charms have elluded me. No conviction politician he !!!!!!!
Voting to date (as far as I can judge)
MC 33
CH 21
SH 4
VT
More evidence in The Times today that Lord, God, King Rupert’s allegiances still lay firmly with new Labour. Rupe’s chief underling Irwin Stelzer lambasts George W Bush for being ‘inattentive to the Prime Minister’s political interests’ by playing along with ‘Tory hypocrisy’:
‘While a top Tory contingent was seeking the prestige that a visit to the White House can confer, their colleagues were voting to make America’s War on Terror more difficult, and to embarrass the Prime Minister.’
Oh dear. Our Dave is then berated for wanting ‘a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq’, which would be a ‘gift to the terrorists’ as well as rejecting patients’ passports and the ‘liberating reform’ of education vouchers – both policies squarely endorsed by Stelzer’s good mate Gordon Brown, presumably.
Strong stuff from News International’s ambassador to Britain. I can’t see a Murdoch endorsement for Cameron happening any time soon.
should have said
VT 1
Rinka 1
Anna is right about DC’s attractiveness. (And Madam Thatcher’s, come to that). And he seems to made few enemies, so far (ignore the torygraph—if they carry on in the same vein, everybody will ignore it soon).
Very few like GB, who don’t know him personally. Sure, rather more respect him, but will that be enough? But pensions won’t be much of an issue—has anybody’s vote on here changed because of his impact on private sector pensions? My guess—no.
167 I can’t see the flip-flop accusation sticking though. It just isn’t catchy enough… Besides given Labour’s demonising of the Conservative Party Past, it will probably be an overwhelming positive that Cameron is changing the party in the mind of Joe Public.
New sex scandal brewing:
“Tories reach out to young mothers”
Guardian news flash!
169 Robusticus. Yes …. but some Tories think the old current bun doesn’t matter !!!!
I wonder …… election eve May 2009 ….
“If Cameron Wins Tomorrow, Will The Last Person Leaving The Country Please Turn Out The Lights!!
Anna Jack W is simply being his anti-Tory self. Nothing Cameron can do would impress him.
[174] I agree, Jack. The one person DC needs to impress –Rupert—is still off-side.
I did see some (slow witted) tories claiming it didn’t matter…
A Carp 155 “- it is certainly not boosting them in the way the Tory contest did.”
Have the Tories seen a boost yet? Possibly some lapsed members have paid their subs but not much else has happened - but then Governments lose elections….
171 david k. Flipfloppery damaged Kerry very badly. On GB “Respect” was enough for Maggie !!
And the influence on the Tory faithful of the Daily Torygraph should not be dismissed.
172 Anna. The charge will be “likeable but untrustworthy” …… Ooppps that’s the Lib Dems ….. or now the liberal Conservatives !!
173 - If we assume (as seems the consensus) that Hughes is not likely to win a head to head against either of the other candidates, how much tactical voting is there likely to be and in which direction ?
How many people would be Hughes supporters and of these how many would
a) vote hughes first pref regardless.
b) vote ming to ensure he makes the next round and beats Huhne
c) vote huhne to ensure he makes the next round and beats Ming
Wasn’t PR supposed to encourage people to vote for whom they actually like ?
I think Murdoch is more pro Blair than pro Labour.
175 Appreciated… I think that the high ratio of men to women on this website means that some things such as “presentability” are under-rated as voting factors. If you look down the “women” column in the NOTW poll, DC is winning or equal on the “I’d-quite-like-this-guy-as-my-friend” questions.
In particular DC wins 62-20 on looks most presentable, which is a little unfair… for example
http://www.epolitix.com/NR/rdonlyres/57EE0AA8-EF97-4EDA-8690-41DEDD1B8356/0/bobmarshallandrewsgordon.jpg
vs
http://www.conservatives.com/getfile.cfm?file=photo-dc-speaking&ref=PHOTO/3103&type=jpg
175 Blue2win. Not “anti-Tory” but anti-Cameron … they are not the same …. not unless the cult of personality has overtaken the Conservatives !
124 - You assume that all Huhne’s supporters think he will win.
I am a Huhne supporter. I think he should win. I think Ming will win because, despite having been outcampaigned, there wasn’t enough time for Huhne to get himself known to enough armchair members before they voted.
176. The only thing that will impress Murdoch is if he thinks that Cameron will win. If it starts to look less likely that Labour will form the next government, what motivation does he have to try to prop them up?
Jack W You have always been Anti-Tory and now you predictably became anti-Cameron. Surprise!
178 That one works against the lib dems because you have headlines like “50% tax rate” (they-may-be-chummy,-but-they’ll-rob-you-blind argument.) I just don’t see how the you can’t trust them will stick to the Tories, since they even seem to have recovered trust on runnigthe economy to a large extent.
184 Matt You are spot on. Influence for Murdoch and his like, is a straight assessment of best business benefit. And the worst business disbenefit is being seen as on the side of the loser.
181 Anna. Is the caption on the DC photo? :
Next time I see that bas**rd Lamont I’m going to squeeze his boll***s until they’re black (Tuesday).
188 er… suspect not, Jack… It is a bit scary though…
Not sure where you canvass Anna but most people dont earn £100,000, want better services, and free education and think the rich can afford a bit more!
185 Blue2win. Not so. I’ve voted at GE’s 4 Conservative and 2 Labour since 79.
I just don’t accept the gibberish that ALL parties spew forth as fact and not largely spin and deceit.
And if our Ken was leader of the Tories I’d know that what he said he meant and not this merry “liberal Conservative” (Cameroon’s words) dance that we are being treated to presently.
And you’ll forgive me if I am somewhat sceptical of your political analysis in light of your performance and predictions at last May’s General Election.
Icarus @’77, I read that the Conservatives have just reeled in over £1 million since David C. took over. And look at his press coverage in the non-political press. Never mind trevr kavanagh in the Sun - on Saturday he was given a glowing testimonial by none other than Peaches Geldorf in the Times Magazine. It might look silly to us, but from a Conservative perspective it is brilliant, as DC is getting talked about in unlikely places. It can only work in his favour.
JAck W Your own posts are what I am judging you by, not your voting record.
And isn’t a cocktail of four parts Tory and two parts Labour called LibDem?
Or is it the other way around?
184 Matt has it right. News International is first, last and always a business and is quite rightly interested in making money.
The titles will back whoever they think is the most likely to be in charge.
At 36-39% in the polls that isn’t likely to be the Conservatives so for the moment the titles will be mildly pro-Labour.
If they detect a substantial change in the public mood after the Labour leadership changes and think that Labour will lose then I think they will come over to us.
Being pro Blair was a pragmatic deal based on recognising the inevitability of him winning in 1997 and was designed to avoid Labour taking revenge for years of pro Tory bias during the 1970’s and 1980’s (which their left wing would love to do by introducing heavy legislation against cross holdings or acting against SKY).
The nightmare scenario for Murdoch is to call it wrong and end up having been hostile to a party who as an incoming Government might feel they have nothing to lose by looking again at the whole issue.
191 - Jack just admit it - Say it out loud - ‘my names Jack W and I’m a Tory-hater!’.
We can’t help you untill you admit you have a problem!
193 Blue2win. Then you will have realized ….. or should have done that I treat all political parties with equal …………. contempt !!
The relationship between the voters and political parties should be as a dog and a lampost …….
Cocking my leg in anticipation …….pisssssssssssssssssssssss
83. Have you any evidence to back your views - canvassing returns from both sides suggest it is very close and there seems to be a wild variation in views on how SH second preferences will fall out.
Max You are the caring side of the party, and long may it be to the forefront.
196 Max.
My name is Jack W and I’m a Mad-hatter
My name is Simon Hughes and I’m a brown-hatter !
My name is James Dean …. and splatter.
198 - No - just educated guesswork. Nearly all the canvassing/polling/hustings figures etc. have been of the more active members.
IF it is neck and neck between activists I think Ming will win because he will be further ahead amongst ‘armchair’ members because the Huhne campaign will not have reached those members as effectively.
But I hope I’m wrong! Maybe they all sit there reading the Indie and Guardian each day and were persuaded by his media campaign.
199. Blue2win. Pass the sick bags down the aisles ……
am i right i thinking the lib dems want people to be elligable to become an m.p at 16.
if so this is so stupid.
i was 16 in the 2001 general election, if i had been elected an m.p i would have been aressted for playing truent while attending the house of commons!!
199. Surely you aren’t suggesting that the Tory party should be nice on the outside and less so on the inside Blue2win?
Thats a NuLab and libdem tactic!
i dont think you are techincally playing truant once you are 16 as you are no longer in compulsory education.
96. I have to confess I almost voted Tory once - It was when Heath asked us all to decide if he or Arthur Scargill governed Britain. I recall turning up at the polling station and being somewhat aggressively approached by a large lady dressed in blue about my polling number. Irrational reaction resulted and Ted lost out! Not very long after that sadly another aggressive lady in blue took over the country and she caused a lot of people to hate Tories.
you can be 16 and in y11, trust me if i didnt turn up i would have been in trouble, someone born in spetember is almost 17 before they are allowed to leave
203. Tis also suggested by the independent Power Commission report out today (which the Indy, unsurprisingly, has as its front page).
(and some more sensible things).
They also suggest text and email voting
you can be 16 and in y11, trust me if i didnt turn up i would have been in trouble, someone born in spetember is almost 17 before they are allowed to leave
Not true, you can leave half way through y11 once you turn 16 should you so wish.
209… bugger i wish i had known that earlier
206 Goupillon. Do you realize the “large lady in blue” was part of a cunning plan and was in fact a burly miner in drag !!
OT. The Bishop of Motherwell has written to the Scottish First Minister to complain that gays are undermining marriage, shouldn’t adopt children or be treated in the same way as heterosexuals. He’s say some might think him a bigot.
http://www.theherald.co.uk/news/56970.html
207.
Teacher; “Flag! Where have you been these last four weeks?!”
Flag; “Sorry sir, I was running for Parliament.”
Teacher; “Well, hmm, did you get elected?”
Flag;(voice trembling) “No sir, I was beated by the Tory candidate, a man called Max who everyone said was very nice, rather like their leader.”
Teacher; “Well thats just not good enough is it?! Round the playing field twice and then I want you to write an essay about how its the winning, not the taking part that counts!”
Flag; “Yes Sir.”
203 - Don’t know about your age, but I’d have you arrested for execrable spelling ;). And don’t you ‘do’ capital letters?
201 I am more optimistic than you - I think that most non active Party members would seek opinions from activists, watched or listened to the broadcast hustings and would have not voted until they were sure about who they wanted to support.
199 - B2W, I didn’t realise we had another side!! I’m sure that all the fallen can be saved - even Jack W!!!!
212 Tistoph. Or ………..
Teacher : Flag .. Where has you been these last 4 weeks ?
Flag : I’ve been elected to Parliament … I am the Education Secretary and you’re fired John O !!!!!
211. You might be right there - perhaps Arthur got the idea from watching Monty Python Which I think first came ouut at that time.
216 - waht if i pormize to reefomr? ;(
215 Max. You are William Ewart Gladstone and I claim 5 prostitutes for Lord Archer !
217 - “He’s not Arthur Scargill… he’s a very naughty boy”
218 John O. Youe iz Dayvid Kamahron an I klaym the hart an sole ov the Konsirvativ Partee !
214. I think they may have watched TV (although not necessarily) but I can’t see non-activists asking activists for their opinion. Most of them are quite detached in my experience.
22. The fact non active members decided to join and support the Party suggests to me that on the whole they should be politically aware and quite capable of forming their own opinions about the candidates.
214 - Hope you’re right!
Numbers for each and averages in each case are now:
Huhne 25 [ 39.0% 52.7% ]
Ming 40 (*) [40.4% 54.4% ]
Hughes 4 [40.6% 50.2% ]
(*) there are 2 of Ming’s 40 casting invalid entries, in that they forecast Ming to win with 48% and 49% after preference distribution. I’ll pass no comment on why Ming win forecasters would make such a mistake…
Max There is ying and yang in every thing. The balance is the key.
225 - Tim, what is the standard deviation on each of those averages?
Does anyone who was surveyed by Yougov Feb 2nd - 6th for the leadership survey still have or remember the questions asked below please? I’m trying to compare bias; What were the options?
2. How important are each the following qualities for a leader of the Liberal Democrats? - 10 options
11. Which of these would apply to you if xxxx xxxxx becomes party leader? 5 options
227 In hexadecimal or duodecimal notation?
225 - Oh, and you can win with less than 50% after 2nd preferences. The inro states “3. The percentage of the overall votes (after re-distribution of second preferences) your predicted new leader wins”. Since some people will put no 2nd preference, they count to no-one in the event their chosen one is eliminated.
26. Why are you Mingers all so insecure and seem to want to grasp at anything to falseley boost your confidence?
Where is all the money from confident Ming backers on the market? The odds so far today have hardly moved at all so far!
229 - Either would be fine
(Sorry, thought you had the numbers in a spreadsheet so would be really easy to do…)
225. The third competition question requires clarification. It isn’t clear whether non-transferable votes from the third place candidate will be excluded when calculating the second count percentages.
216
221. Dear me Jack thats not how we youngens write. Try “U iz DC and i be taxin’ da hart and soul of da Konservativ massiv.”
Then again I suppose Jack W is 103! so not so much in touch with his youthful side
re; main thread (SHOCK NEWS; Tistoph posts point about main thread! Possible PB first!)
I am guessing about a 10% split in first preferences between Campbell and Huhne (so 55% to 45%). I think name recognition will have helped Campbell amongst those people who sent their ballots in early (both in first and second preferences), but Huhne would have made up some ground amongst people who delayed in returning their ballot papers (though not enough ground to overtake Campbell, he hasn’t impressed enough).
It says overall votes, so it should be as a proportion of 1st pref. vote total, I guess.
31 - there’s very funny (as in peculiar) movements on the betfair lib dem leader market, someone keeps on putting a block at 1.8 with up to a grand a time, keeping his price in that range. I’m sure some here have availed them of the money as they’ve now used up over £10k (comparing that figure to nearby ones) in keeping Huhne’s price in that range. So the money keeps piling on Campbell (or against Huhne) and still Huhne gives the impression of being ahead. Neat, huh?
Someone with money to burn obviously, wouldn’t it be nice to be a millionaire (and not care if you were or not
)?
34 Those who have watched or listened to PMQ in recently would not have been impressed by messrs Campbell and Hughes. Its a pity CH was not given a shot at Blair!
36. What about Billy Hill who might have taken a lot of money on CH at 1.53 and opted to lay it at 1.8 on Betfair?
237. I disagree. Have been impressed by Campbell. He had a bad first outing and took a couple of weeks to recover, but I think he is getting the hang of it.
I don’t think Huhne would come across well to be honest, too much of a technocrat know-it-all. The PM needs facts at PMQ. Those asking questions need to be sharp and ask quick awkward questions which don’t have a straight answer, with a little bit of fact to back it up.
Tis one of the key reasons why I have remained a Minger…
38
I got that wrong - Im afraid a bit of mathematical dyslexia!
203 - It is not stupid to allow 16-year olds to stand. Obviously it is highly unlikely that any would be elected as the electorate would in all probability decide that the candidate was too inexperienced. Similarly they would probably not vote for a 95 year-old but that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be allowed to stand.
38 - They’re definitely not exhibiting the behaviour of professionals, they could easily allow the price to drift further out (and they aren’t using any sort of automated software according to someone on the betfair forum). It’s clearly someone keeping the price artificially in the 1.80 range All that is unknown is who wants to do that, and who has the sort of finances to do so?
Something for Jack W to go with his Jacob bites.
Paul M at 179 asks: “Wasn’t PR supposed to encourage people to vote for whom they actually like ? ”
The question in the first part of his post freely admits that he has no evidence whatsoever that people are not voting for whom they like.
Suggestion: obtain real evidence before you start the anti-PR spin.
Ming makes a great play about how he was an Olympian and took part in the Tokyo Olympics in 1964 though has anybody actually looked at how he did?
200m - second round exit http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Athletics_at_the_1964_Summer_Olympics_-_Men%27s_200_metres
4×100m relay - last in the final after running the third leg
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Athletics_at_the_1964_Summer_Olympics_-_Men%27s_4×100_metre_relay
It doesn’t bode well - he is not a natural winner!
239 Blairs technique appears to try to brush off LD questioners as lightweights usually associated with some jibe against the Party and the effectiveness of the actual question is often lost. I thought William Hague dealt with Blair very well the other day and his technique should be studied by our would be LD leaders. If CH won I think he has much more potential to counteract the “bully” Blair.
243 Blue2win. Thanks for the link.
Thee was a decent piece in the “Times” today and Tistoph linked to the story last night too.
I dread to think of the price of a bottle … probably in the £500 a bottle range !
179.”Wasn’t PR supposed to encourage people to vote for whom they actually like ? ”
people could vote for whom they like with FPTP too (for ex I vote the Labour candidate in the Isle of Wight even if he will never win).
And tactical vote could be used in some form of PR too: I vote party X to help them to get the threshold.
223. Yes - what I meant was that they wouldn’t be asking activists for their opinions, but would be making up their own minds.
231. I’ve put an extra fiver on Ming - grand total of £15…pretty confident for a first-timer!
245 Doug. I think the idea is to show Ming as a well rounded sporty fit individual and not another one dimentional lawyer/politician like …… well like other lawyer/politicians ….. Blair, Howard ……..
249 Valerie. Is your 50% increase in investment matched by a 50% increase in confidence ??
………………………………………..
As promised I hope to post some Lib Dem intel shortly.
251. maybe not 50% (it was what I had left in the kitty) but an increase…
251 - Jack - any clues as to when you will be posting juicy intel… some of us have important things to do this evening, and can’t wait around for you to dispense your wisdom…
251/52. but are they very juicy?
250 - Jack, it would be an abuse of the forum for me to use this as a cue to say that my blog features a picutre of Ming the runner today. So I will keep quiet about it. Please don’t tell anyone.
255. you could used this one (where he’s actually crossing the finish line in first place after a tight race):
http://editorial.gettyimages.com/source/search/details_pop.aspx?iid=56567156&cdi=0
I knew I should have asked you, Andrea. I will use it on Thursday.
253-255 Anoraks !!!!!!!
I’ll be posting the intel before 7.00pm. !
257. Peter, this one is if he wins with a good margin:
http://editorial.gettyimages.com/source/search/details_pop.aspx?iid=56567142&cdi=0
and if he loses:
http://editorial.gettyimages.com/source/search/details_pop.aspx?iid=56567146&cdi=0
There’s a peculiar story in the Evening Standard today that Chris Huhne incorrectly claimed that his mother acted the role of Superman’s mother in a movie. She was asked and denied it (and apparently she’s not on the credits), whereupon his office said that, well, she was 78 years old - i.e., presumably, she might have forgotten about it.
The story seems not so much outrageous as odd (and it didn’t get much prominence in the Standard). It doesn’t matter either way whether she did the role or she didn’t, but what a strange thing to make up, if that’s what he did? Can anyone cast any light on it?
260 The Telegraph describes her as a “Labour-supporting” actress.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/01/21/nlib21.xml&sSheet=/news/2006/01/21/ixnewstop.html
244 - Richard, my question wasn’t meant as anti PR spin. More a frustration that from a betting/predicting perspective we still need to factor in the possibility of tactical voting.
258 - you’ve got less than 10 minutes, Jack…
262 Paul, there is no point in tactically voting in a three person STV election. You cannot help a higher preference at the expense of a lower preference this way. If there are 4 candidates, then it is more complex…
OK ….. last call made and now ready with the goss. Usual health warnings, but these sources have proved reliable in the past :
The game is done, the race is run
And Mighty Ming is the Lib Dem one !
I’m a poet and didn’t know it.
…Poet Laureate look to your stanzas !
So Tofu munchers and bearded ones I the Returning Officer for the constituency of Countrywide Quiche and Bar Chartdom do hereby declare that the total number of votes cast for each candidate is a follows :
Hughes… Simon (Loopy left wing incense bi-swinger) - Not nearly enough.
Huhne… Chris (Multi-home dodgy share/policies) - Not nearly as many as thought.
Campbell… Sir Merciless (Lady Elspeth Soiree and Krug Party) - Far too many for the others.
………………………………………….
All the subliminal mood music from the 3 camps is that Ming has won. Feelers from the Hughes and Huhne to Ming are of the “well done … may I and my top people have a decent job please nature”.
None are of course prepared to openly or publicly concede to Ming in these final few days, but neither do they want to take a swing at the new leader.
Evan Harris is said to be very disappointed that Hughes has failed again to carry the left of the party, and had his campaign derailed early on by the “bi” revealations and the excellent Huhne campaign. Hughes supporters still feel they may edge out Huhne, but their confidence that they may force a suprise has ebbed away almost from the word go.
Huhnistas mightily pleased that they’ve made a good race of it and expect a “prominent post” for their man. And also spiked the likes of Clegg for the time being.
The Ming dynasty await the crown ….. full robes are expected !! Someone find the orb and sceptre.
……………………………..
So a Campbell Rules the Whigs …..What did you expect !! Jacobites all cry away
IMDB suggests she may have been someone’s godmother in Dixon of Dock Green…
Hasn’t the ramping/expectations/betting got to the point that a big Ming win is a bigger upset than a narrow Huhne one?
My heart wants you to be wrong Jack but my head tells me otherwise.
66 - It was in the Observer on Sunday.
“Oh Huhne, my hero
Who can save Britain from her many troubles? We need a leader who is strong and brave and can see through problems with X-ray vision.
For years, Chris Huhne roared round London in his company BMW as if it were a Bondmobile with lead-free petrol.
Last week, he suggested another comparison when he told the Mirror that his mother, Ann Murray, was an actress who had played Clark Kent’s mother in one of the Superman movies.
He was ‘rather vague about which of the Superman films she was in,’ the Mirror noted, and I couldn’t find one with an Ann Murray in the cast list.
On no account should this apparent lapse stop the Liberal Democrats making Huhne their leader. He may not be able to play the superhero, but he is shaping up to be a fine comic turn.”
This is just getting weirder and weirder………
165. Jack, I’m disappointed……I expected some big revelations, not things you’ve already suggested us!
165. h, Jack, I hope you’re right….otherwise some posters here will kill you! And you know I love your posts (90% of the times).
169 Andrea. It’s consistent !!
If you want scandal look at page 3 of the Winchester Sewage Farm Weekly.
265. A fiver well-spent, then…
271. jack, I didn’t want scandals, just some new info…ah, well, the Harris thing is new….saved at the last minute
ok. on thursday the new lib dem leader presumably replaces CK on the site mast head. This means simon hughes has to be replaced as surely he is no longer the senior lib dem after two failed leadership bids? which lib dem gets the spot? will it be a lib dem at all? will mike just leave it as it is?
Also thoughts on the new lib dem deputy leader if Ming is indeed cruising to victory? its elected by the parliamentary party. will the mingons be magnanimous and give it to Huhne (hughes is already president) or will he annoint his successor this way. laws, davey,clegg? a female deputy would go down well but all lack parliamentry experience to an extent. Krammer has gravitas but needs voice coaching (sorry) while teather has gumption but probabley wouldn’t been seen as a credible leadership contender. a sort of lib dem john prescott would be useful. some one who’ll help keep the party on side but not a credible alternative to leader themselves.
Despite Jack’s pronouncement the market remains where it has been for more than a day and there has not been any large sum placed around 1.8 for people to lay on Huhne for sometime now.
“The (retold) tale of the unpublished YouGov poll - the largest conducted in the campaign. Partially supressed, it provides a little clarity in a very opaque contest;”
http://specialbets.blogspot.com/2006/02/yougov-liberal-democrat-leadership.html
Can anyone help refine this article a bit? we’re particularly interested in hearng from people polled in either survey? Can you help us fill in the missing questions? Are we correct that YG#1 did not have a list of questions BEFORE asking the key ones? Email us and let us know!
Or rather than fill the mast head place with a prominent MP what about the sexiest MP. as per numerious other threads. My vote would be (using STV)
1. Cllr Stephen Tall
2. Jeremey Browne
3. Caroline Flint
instead of hustings we could have swim wear and evening wear rounds. it would be great!
190 - Icarus Anna gets her butler to canvas for her.
275 Goupillon. The market on Dunfermline didn’t move even whilst the Returning Officer was clearing his throat….. despite my best efforts …… and you could have got the Lib Dems at 12/1 during the day ….. and Labour were still 10/1 on during the count !
I expect Huhne will remain favourite even after Ming is declared as leader …..
273 Andrea. The best intelligence is the boring type !! I can’t invent information for “scandal tarts” like you…. can I ??
Jack, you are Lady Elspeth and I claim my £5!
174, Cleggy for the Masthead.
Given he played a not inconsiderable part in MC’s campaign I wouldn’t be surprised if he picks up the FC brief he’s been deputising for.
279. Jack, so be humble enough not to repeat yourself too much….or do you like the sound of your voice too much?
277. Listed among Caroline Flint’s interests: “Tap dancing with the Division Belles, a troupe of Labour women MPs.”
279. Jack, my dear, your efforts weren’t great on the day of Dunfermline by-election…at 8:16 pm you told us about a 1,000-1,300 Labour win!
But your sources at the count were great though……are your LD sources like your Dunfermline’s pre or during count sources?
265 - I think you’re going to have to add a legal disclaimer soon, Jack: I’ve just invested my life savings backing Ming (more accurately, laying Chris) on the basis of your info.
277 - erm, thanks
280 Tabman. Ah …… Recovered from your 18:12 retreat from Murrayfield !! …. What odds did you offer ??
281 Andrea. All the best things are repeated 3 times
:
Education..Education..Education
liberal Conservative..liberal Conservative..liberal Conservative.
Ming..Ming..Ming.
283. Oh, Jack, at 11:00 pm you posted about a Labour hold in Dunfermline!
was your effort to dupe pb.com punters?
283 Andrea. I had two main sources in Dunfermline.
The pre-count info came via a couple of Lib Dems to a jouro up there who thought they hadn’t quite done it. That’s the intel …. whether It’s correct or not, that’s a different matter. Even during the count the Lib Dems were unsure they’d done it till near the end.
Ironically it was a well informed Tory at the count who read the tea leaves early on and declared for the Lib Dems. I understand it was from there that Prof Curtice et al started to speculate on an excellent Lib Dem result ….. although even they were cautious about calling the winner.
The thing to remember andrea is “no one knows”. Its very difficult to canvas this election as no one has access to a proper membership list still less one with phone numbers. Unless anyones canvas returns shows them 10% ahead or more i wouldn’t be confident. but i suppose that may have happened.
lets just hope Blair is hit by a bus soon so we can have another leadership election soon.
286 Andrea. Not at all. The early confusion at the count was that some of the West Fife areas were counted sooner than normal and some thought it was the stronger Lib Dem areas counting ….. thus what appeared a tight Lab hold wasn’t …….. Quite the reverse !! ……… Oh the fun of the count
287. Jack, you call it intel, I call it gossip
264 - Thanks Anna. I would have thought that if you knew your candidate couldn’t win a run-off against anyone because he/she was polarizing (e.g. 40% loved them , 60% hated them), you might have an incentive to tactically vote to make sure your second favourite wasn’t eliminated. Could be wrong though.
289. Jack, Sky was faster than you…….you should watch less Scottish TV with Nicola Styrgeon presenting her swing theories
292 Andrea. “…Sky was faster than you …”
On the basis of the votes cast in the other thread, Ming is clearly expected to win despite the odds - 48 out of 84 expecting Ming to win (31 Huhne and 5 Hughes) Why haven’t voters on this site been influenced by the clear odds in favour of Chris?
NB I think backing Ming at 2.4 is better than laying Chris at 1.8
Ming’s odds are moving! 2.38…
Not much 2.4 left…
293. by more than “just”….but then Sky always says (to add suspance) that the challenger is running closer…….
Ming is available at 6/4 with Paddy Power, which seems great value to me. The max bet is £115, but I have fully availed of it!
Still about £1200 available on Ming at better than evens (Betfair) but £200 taken - correction £300 at 2.36 in the last few mins
BF : MC = 2.34 (!) Jack the ramper strikes again …. ?
2.32
If anyone believes Jack surely they would be better to back the MC/CH double at 2.6 ?
given most of the people on here favour Ming to win, the only surprise is that this didn’t happen earlier!
Save your money on Betfair - he’s available at 6/4 with Paddy Power!
302 Jamie. “If anyones believes Jack …….”
I’m shocked and stunned …. you mean everyone doesn’t ?!?!
Your Dunf tip has shaken my unshakeable belief…
Hope someone is awake at Paddy Power HQ
Evenin’ all: thanks for the intel Jack W, it fits in with the limited stuff I am hearing. Do you anticipate it could be close for second? I suspect it may be. I think that number of MPs declaring for each candidate is significant, and it’s pretty close between Huhne and Hughes isn’t it?
If only I was a betting man, I’d be tempted to offer some pennies on Ming right now…
265. I have given in and taken your advice - Paddy Power will suffer hopefully. Although I still want Chris to win - but business is business!
I won a packet at Dunfermline - my son was there and your reading of the situation is accurate. The large fluctuations in the market gave me a green book on Labour and the Lib Dems. We won at Dunfermline because Willie Rennie was the best candidate and he was well known locally. Labours’ campaign also was not the best to say the least!
re 274 - the PB.C Masthead. This will be changed following the Lib Dem election. My future daughter-in-law, Lucille, does the design and I’ll brief her after Thursday.
I can’t decide whether to stick with two Lib Dems there or not. Given the big big election that is not so far away is the 2008 White House Race I might reflect that.
So there would just be Chris Huhne for the Lib Dems - if the markets and YouGov are right.
Jack - it all sounds a lot like YouGov#1 - the biggest YouGov members poll! http://specialbets.blogspot.com/2006/02/yougov-liberal-democrat-leadership.html
309: spinning to the last Mike…I noticed the order of the candidates on the prediction competition thread as well! Really that confident?
09 - My vote goes to Thurso, not enough facial hair on there at the moment.
305. Jack, everyone is beliving you….it’s just that someone couldn’t believe your source!
so let be clear, are these figures coming from canavssing returns?
310 - the survey is too old now - it would be great to get an up to date one but I can’t see one being done. Now over to Mystic Maud
308. “We won at Dunfermline because Willie Rennie was the best candidate ”
I suppose it’s subjective. He was certainly the best campaigner among the candidates…not sure if he was the best politicians. certainly not the best orator.
307 tpfkar. Second place is more tricky. Hughes was badly damaged by the bi(g) lie …. yet remains popular with activists and does hold a solid core vote. However Lib Dems are normally hyper pragmatic when voting for the main chance… and Hughes isn’t.
In contrast Huhne has run an excellent campaign IMO and had the balls to stand in the first place. But his support is overplayed and I wouldn’t be suprised if second place was close between the H’s.
306 Jamie.
……………………………………………
I’m flattered by my betting guru status …… I’ll appoint a fakir soon !!
However, I’m really just a conduit for a mixture of insider information, reasoned analysis and casting the political runes !
Jack W is 103 ……….. Thousand Pounds richer !!
re 311. No - not that confident. I closed down my Huhne positions on the IG spread market at the weekend and a nice big cheque is on its way to me.
On Betfair I make the same whether it’s Huhne or Campbell and I am determined not to change the positions. Whatever way this goes I make even more than I got on Cameron.
As a Lib Dem I’ll be hugely disappointed if Ming gets it. I’m excited by the prospect of Huhne who has looked better and better the more he has been exposed.
But you make money with political bets when you distance your head from your heart so I’ll happily take the welcome contribution from Betfair and others if Ming does it.
I was struck by the quiet confidence in the email I got from the Ming campaign on Friday.
The email I got yesterday seemed very pro forma - as if little effort had gone into it. Either they’re confident, or have given up…
315 You dont have to be a great orator to be a successful constituency MP. If he works his patch well who knows he might keep his seat at the next general election however unlikely this seems at the moment.
Oops - premature posting.
That’s why I am getting into Ming on the back of Jack’s info; I was waiting to see if something cropped up to back my instinct.
I’m down a little if Huhne gets it (I bought into Simon on the basis that I thought he’d bounce back a bit after his revelations), but nothing too serious.
318. if candidates sounds confident, it’s a good sign.
A couple of weeks ago Ming camp seemed a bit worried (many attacks to Huhne), now they seem more confident
319. Goupillon, to be honest, you don’t have to be a great politician either to be a successful constituency MP
312 Quite so.
Sorry 322
324. Ah, ok, I thought you wanted more facial hair (see post 312)
CH 1.87, MC 2.34 , SH 25
317 Mike S. I think Mike makes a VERY important point here that all active PB ers should have engraved on their wallets and purses :
Bet with your head NOT your heart or alliegance.
313 Andrea. Limited and partial …. but clear.
Hence one of the reasons for the mood music in the camps.
VC bet and Paddies were both 2.5 VC Bet just went to 2.25 on Ming… Paddies asleep at the wheel?!
26. 0.82, 1.34, 23 now
If it’s facial hair you want, then David Heath is your only man!
VC?
327. Jack, apart from my spelling mistaked at 313, what is limited, partial and clear?
VC= Victor Chandler.
Viet Cong? I knew the Vietnamese ran gambling syndicates, but…
334 http://www.racing-index.com/bookmakers/vcbet.html
334 - they are from ‘Nam
Chelte - Nam
The Paddy Power market was only open until 9 p.m. It’ll be interesting to see if it opens again tomorrow at 6/4…
334. in particular:
http://www.vcbet.co.uk/coupon_outright.jsp?&eid=71213500&eid=&ot=200
265.”Evan Harris is said to be very disappointed that Hughes has failed again to carry the left of the party,”
btw, I think Evan Harris is good. next time he shouldn’t delegate to others the role of “carrying the left” IMO
332 Andrea. From early on each of the camps has tried to get a handle on support amongst members …… the difficlty has been skewed polls, newspaper polling and the cost !
In the end the tried and tested canvassing has come into play. And bingo ……. on goes the mood music and take your partners please for the Ming Fandango !
340. Jack, hopefully the canvassing mood won’t be the one heard in Meday on may 6th………..the face of the tory candidate when the result was declared……my poor heart couldn’t handle those dramatic scenes
Paddies have had ENOUGH! best price is Betfair again!
BTW I’ve had an e-mail saying that Evan Harris on Sky with Adam Boulton yesterday conceded that Ming was likely to win. Is this true ?? ……….. I missed that one … if accurate ….. I was selling my turnips on Harpenden Farmers Market !!
Paddy Power has pulled out
343. Jack, could you email me please….no spam thanks (Anna is already doing it!): anpa82@inwind.it
345 Andrea. Are you trying to lure me into your depraved (inter)net.
Fancy being “inwind” ……… Schoolboy
146. Jack, I’ve a “hotmail” account too, but it’s just for selected ones.
347 Andrea. OK fellow PB ers ….. I’m about to enter the other side ……I may be away some time.
348. I hope you’ll be back for thursday, will you?
Jack’s advice is something like my own feeling - and the signals I am getting from others. But it is also the message I would like to hear. So I will wait until Thursday to decide how to invest my winnings.
I should like to see Evan Harris in a more prominent role too btw.
349 Andrea. I’m like Noel Edmonds and the clap …… I’ll always return !!
I’m around most of this week ….. do I hear (ramp)ant cheering …. No
….. ungrateful sods ….. all the cash I’ve made for you all !!
Agreed re Evan: without doubt one of our strongest media performers. And impeccably liberal on social issues.
What is this about a Tory Charter of Principles -
1 apple pie is nice
2 mother knows best
3 err, thats all we can think of.
Apparently there is to be a vote (not as close as the Lib Dem one methinks)
Seems like Pb.c prediction competition is actually driving the markets now.
Only about £550 available above 2.04 on Ming and the 1.80 Huhne seller has withdrawn. Heading for evens, which seems reasonable, given available information, although a good case could be made for Ming at 1.6-1.7.
I’m fully loaded with Ming now, but for others it’s still not to late.
351. oh, dear, I thought you were leaving tonight for the other side….you know the age…..
350/52. re Harris. I said it first…have I won something!?
I ask this again (since no-one asnwered me last time): do candidates have the full list of members to canvass?
356 - I will buy you membership of ldys
357 - no. They do not get a list of members.
354 Jan. “I’m fuuly loaded with Ming now ….”
Oh er Missus !!
356 Andrea. Clap ! ………. Sorry .. applause … applause !!
357 Andrea. No …….. not officially.
358. Peter Pigeon (Ken will try to kill you!), I don’t dare to ask you what “ldys” are!
so if they don’t have the full list, I suppose canvassing info could be even more inaccurate!?
Jack, I just got 2 strange emails from you!
ZoneAlarm Security Suite E-Mail Verification or something of that sort…what should I do?
Andrea destroy your PC now, immediately …. too late?
361 - It could indeed. Still I think all the camps will have a lot of information. Whether you can trust anyone to pass on reliable information is quite another issue.
I am shocked to find that you do not know of LDYS…
x42 & x44 - the Paddy Power LD leader market was advetised to close at 9 p.m.; it’s not the case that they got cold feet after a rush of money.
364. Now I know what LDYS is (the not capitol letters confused me somehow)….I’m disappointed that there’re no photos of the leading members on their website!
You know I’m a bit sceptical about some canvassing returns…especially after having seen BMA screaming like a psycho on election night…..
361. Liberal Democrat Youth and Students
or, in Scotland, SYLD, (Scottish Young Liberal Democrats).
Simon Hughes’ team was the only one that attempted to canvass me, or send me anything than the ‘offical’ candidate manifesto.
362 Andrea. It’s my Jacobite Internet Security Service ….. the Claymore Boys will be around soon !!!!!!!!!!!
Worry not Andrea ….. I have to protect my sources.
So Cameron’s going for his defining Clause IV moment… by imitating Blair on Clause IV. Hmmm.
69 - some may say it’s an act of betrayal - certainly a light the blue touch paper moment - possibly the single biggest gamble in party political history - if he has guessed wrong then that could be the end as we know it.
369- I only caught the end of the report, does anyone know what this document thing is about?
369 - as Bill McLaren might have said: “They’ll be seething on the streets of Tunbridge Wells tonight!”
371 - its a not very imaginitive rehash of everything he’s said over the past few months pulled together in one document.
No tax cuts
No being beastly to the oiks
A free asylum seeker in every pot
That kind of thing …
371 - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4756410.stm
Doesn’t seem as though there’s anything that will turn off anyone except complete nutters.
371 - it’s here: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4756410.stm
I’m not sure it’s so very different from Michael Howard’s set of Credo pledges back when he was enjoying his leadership honeymoon.
The dilemma for Cameron is that he desperately needs a battle with the right-wing of his party to dis-prove that he’s a lightweight flip-flopper. But, kinda ironically, his party is so desperate for power they will vote for whatever he says.
Which undermines his pitch that his party has changed c.f. Blair’s strong position after persuading his party to ditch Clause IV.
372 Tabman.
Have you re-invested your “Dunfermline Dosh” in “The Minging One” ?
375. Maybe Blair could give him on loan some of his backbenchers.
Stephen, you wish, oh you soooo wish…
278 - Iain, I can do dispassionate objective analysis when I try
cameron’s going to look like an arse when 90% of Tory members vote in favour. this is really pathetic!
380 - Another thoughtful, intelligent and dispasionate post there eric!
375 - good analysis Stephen.
376 - No, I only bet on 10-1 dead certs
378 - Iain, how did you get the Sundy Indy gig?
375 - Dave’s mate Nick Robbo agrees with you on Newsnight.
383 - in which case I was clearly talking bollocks
Well we shall wait and see, with all due respect Stephen; I suspect that it’s your party which has to deal with some more fundamental problems than the Tories do right now.
375. The difference for Cameron (compared with Labour’s Clause IV situation) is that the right wing of the Tory party has
1) deep pockets; and
2) the ear of newspaper editors.
Jack W you had better be right this time or you might get the reputation of being the Lembit Opik of the PB blogasphere
How long before Cameron jumps on the Arctic Monkeys bandwagon?
“Whatever people said we were, that’s what we’re not”
387 Goupillon. As advised by others in the past I’ll just have to disappear up my own Uranus !
384 - You seem to have answered my question anyway Stephen
385 - I think every party has fundamental problems/challenges right now.
Labour will have to work out their post-Blair positioning. I agree with our host that Lab is going to miss Blair more than they could possibly imagine.
The Tories are united in their desire to win, which is a good start. But they have a long, long way to go. I’m not going to pre-judge whether they’ll last the course before they revert to right-wing type.
And, yes, the Lib Dems have a lot of things to work out. The leadership contest is a beginning, not an end.
388. Tabman, initially I thought you were referring to the lyrics from ‘Fake Tales of San Francisco’
“All the weekend rockstars are in the toilets practising their lines…”
392 Chrisco. More like taking their lines !
392 - “A great philosopher once wrote: naughty, naughty - very naughty!”
Arctic Monkeys’ lyrics are clearly too subtle for you Jack…
394. I know the geezer.
Didn’t william hague also have a members ballot on his Euro policy? Didn’t he also get 90% plus in favour and the whole thing looked like an albanian election? Removing clause 4 really hurt some in the labour party and addressed a core concern of floating voters. I don’t think cameroons statement of whatever is really in the same league.
389 That reminds me of the fight between the Ostrich and the python:
Ding Round 1:
Ostrich circles Python
Python circles Ostrich
Ostrich lunges and swallows Python
But Python being a cunning snake wriggles
right through Python and emerges out of his arse
Ding end of round 1
Ding round 2
Ostrich circles Python
Python circles Ostrich
Ostrich lunges and swallows Python
But Python being a cunning snake wriggles
right through Python and emerges out of his arse
Ding end of round 2
Ding Round 3:
Ostrich circles Python
Python circles Ostrich
Ostrich lunges and swallows Python and
then sticks his head up his arse and says
“now loop the loop you b*gger”
396 - he’s a real crowd pleaser. But he’s the kind of geezer who must never be abused.
“cameron’s going to look like an arse when 90% of Tory members vote in favour. this is really pathetic!”
I agree that this would be funny but isn’t the problem with the Tories that the vast majority are nutters and probably havent realized that this is a vacuous piece of PR and might vote against!
Very much maligned and misunderstood.
Roger?
:lo:
roger - have you seen the statements? they’re so bland surely even the headbangers in the tory party couldn’t be bothered to vote against them.
395 Chrisco. Hadn’t you noticed … I don’t do subtle !!
Of course I might be missing the real, defining Clause IV part of Cameron’s statement… as he’s now committed his party to supporting free trade, I guess he’s implicitly accepting the free movement of labour… so unlimited immigration…
Just checking Betfair -
Huhne 1.86/1.97
Campbell 2.14/2.20
Big movement in comparison to the recent stagnation.
“394. I know the geezer.”
Reminds me of the Polish guy who goes to the optician.
“Can you read the bottom line” asks the optician?
“Read it? I know the bloke”
382. Tabman, by the eloquence of my blog and natural modesty, of course? How else?
Did you like it?
Are we calling this Cameron’s Clause 2 1/2 moment then?
409 - That’s hilarious
You must have been working on it for hours….
Labour, Clause 4
Consevative, Clause 2 1/2
Liberal Democrat, Clauset 2
can anyone tell me a single statement in the entire text that anyone would vote against? it’s hilariously banal.
409 - more like Clause Bore.
410 - genius, innit.
312. well, someone could say it about Lab old clause 4….I mean, I think I’m pretty left wing, but it was too much even for me!
412 - So why are you getting your knickers in a twist about it then? Oh Gordie - give him a job for pity’s sake
Now, now then John. it’s not my fault that all david cameron’s plays come straight out of the New Labour strategy book.
It was not really meant to be funny, by a genuine perspective on the lack of guile that Cameron really has.
At the end of the day copies are often held up to the original for comparison. Only a very few covers of songs are as good as the original…
406 ukpaul. Really
409 Paul. More like a momentory in time.
I’m wondering if that’s it ?????
A bit like IDS …. I’m the “Quiet Man”, can you bloody hear me ? Yawn yawn …… if this is the Tory Clause 4 … then England are a decent rugby team
I thought my closet gag was quite good.
I’ll get my coat…
415 - John O - for all the protestations about how little our Liberal and Labour friends are worried about DC it is strange that they never miss a chance to be as abusive as possible towards everything he does.
And given the utter ignorance of some on this site as to the character and politics of the Tory membership I’m quite sure they have no idea what they’re even talking about on this particular subject!
I hear on the BBC that one of the candidates has withdrawn.
416 - Tories 38%, LibDems 18%. ‘Nuff said, olde fruite
421. what? Lynne Jones is not standing for Lab leadership anymore?
420 - Max, Yes, they are SUCH darlings, aren’t they?
wrong party
I have a horrible suspicion that Roger @ ‘18 might well be right re:la Jowell. I gather she was “monstered” on Womens’ Hour this morning, of all places. Jenni Murray was interviewing her about equal pay, and asked something along the lines of, “As a feminist, Tessa, why did you sign a legal document for your husband without finding out what it was about?” Mrs J’s answer - to the effect that her husband deat with their mortgage repayment and associated paperwork - did not go down very well at all, certainly not with Mrs Carp, who has Strong Views on domestic finances.
There are also two very unflattering write-ups in the London Evening Standard this evening.
“All will become clear on Thursday. This is a close call although I’m just inclined to think that Huhne has it. The latest betting is here.”
Mike Smithson
What are the odds on Mike coming out for Ming (just) tomorrow?
I just wish I had his all green book!
Both at 2.02 on Betfair for a moment…
424 John O. Do come on John … you’re not getting carried away with all this motherhood and apple pie verbiage !! …..Let’s have a Conservative policy worth the name ……
Slaughter of the first born of single mothers would do ……. but not all this airy fairy persiflage of liberal Conservative drivel … Yuk !
427/28 - I’m slightly disturbed by the power Jack W appears to wield… Though it might also be the absence of blocking £1k bets, of course
Flip Flop on Betfair!
Wow, as soon as you took the blockers away that took next to no time. Glad I got more on earlier this svening now.
If Huhne’s money has been holding down his price, it would make sense to give up the ghost now - any votes not posted by this point have little chance of being delivered before noon on Wednesday.
429 - Jack, Percy who?
418 Essentially that’s my view. Did she ask, “Why do we need more cash right now?” If the answer is, in essence, “to bet with” they have a problem. If she didn’t ask, they have a problem. How much money do people think they need?
Re “Cameron’s Clause 4 moment”, my big concern isn’t so much the figures, as I expect there are enough right wing nutters out there who loathe Cameron and who would vote down whatever he puts to them, that it’s enough to avoid a “95% yes”. My big concern is that the turnout will be pathetically low, with most members thinking “I can’t be arsed to bother with this”, that it’ll prove to be a bit of an own goal with a big “yes” but with more people not voting at all - the worst of all worlds.
Still, his first day back from paternity leave and it’s lead story on the 10pm News and on Newsnight. Shows that the media love-in is continuing, despite what the Labour/LibDem members here would like to think.
Ming now favourite - Just!!!
Martyn @418 - According to the radio, she did not even ask about the money, or how it would be repaid. Yes, they have a problem.
Ming now the favourite.
435 - some good publicity on the Beeb - who had the scoop - but Sky are ignoring it. And no front pages in tomorrow’s papers.
Actually if it is a two horse race you can bet on both and make money now!
The power of pb.com is awesome!
Jack W, way way back at 167: re “flip-flopping”. The PMQs blip now seems like it was light years ago. Apart from a highly amusing Peter Brookes cartoon in The Times the other week (DC nursing a flipflop-shod Arthur in his arms), the only mention I’ve seen of “flip flopping” is in Jack’s numerous postings on here. The moment’s passed, it isn’t going to stick, Blair has shot his bolt on that one.
430 Stephen. The all powerful Jack W
Mrs Jack W will be pleased.
433 John O. You know Percy from Blackadder II …. a sort of bright Boris Johnson in tights !
443. I’ve always found Percy funny
443, Crazee name, crazee guy. Definitely a Dave sort of guy. We lurrve him
439 - but the BBC 10pm News gets over 5m viewers and is the most-watched news bulletin. Sky News is not. Quite a big deal that the Beeb led on this tonight. Perhaps the others will catch up tomorrow when the launch actually takes place.
442. Bob …..Mhhhhh .. another Blackadder character ….. a woman in drag !!! OK Bob the game is up !!
The flip flop allegation will be wheeled out remorselessly against Cameroon until it sticks !!
I think you underestimate the sheep like qualities of the Conservative membership Bob. I agree that in most parties it would be treated with distain or worse but Tories are nothing if not loyal
Incredible amount of movement on Betfair given its stagnation of late.
If I didn’t have so much work to do I could sit here and watch it all evening!
MC 1.96, Ch 2.04, SH 34
We will look very silly if Simon gets it!
450 Icarus. VC still has Huhne @ 5/4 and it’ll be interesting to see how the other High St bookies react.
As info leaks out Ming will probably firm even more.
Chrisco Your clauset joke was appreciated. Bit close to home, though, wasn’t it?
Anyhow children… time for a trip up the wooden hill ….. I’ve been promised some more gen tomorrow …… although some of it may be in the Standard …… what the hell … let them pick over the bones for themselves for a change
G’nite all ……. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
A pile of money has just gone into laying Ming - he’s jumped from 1.98 out to 2.08 in a couple of minutes. Huhne at evens.
352. You’ve got to ‘ave a larf Blue, even at your own expense.
Once again, we see aggressive late night betting in favour of Huhne - very odd!
456 Could someone’s automated system be up the spout?
455 - Very good, Chrisco
Was 2 meant to me the maximum number of occupants at any one time? Mark Oaten won’t be pleased…
More evidence that if you want to move house, it may be best to do it soon.
If the market in the US falls apart (or anywhere in Europe come to that)then it will knock on here fairly quickly. Globalisation is not just cheap knick knacks from China. The interconnectedness of all things becomes greater by the day.
No, AHM, Mark rather likes number 2.
Betfair seems to have stabilised with Huhne at 1.98 and Ming back out again at 2.14.
What it means, I have no idea!
460 - Does he?
Are you still in the Colonies?
Spoke too soon - now 1.95/2.18.
Yes, indeed AHM. Apologies for not replying further to your email, but I have been working my little socks off as I am going on holiday to Australia in a couple of days.
I’ll find out how much I’ve won/lost on the LD leadership just before I leave for the airport!
Watching the Betfair prices jag backwards and forwards is kind of hypnotic, isn’t it? Still, it’s good to know I’m not the only one thinking “I really ought to get some sleep…hmm, maybe just refresh them one more time….”
464 - Splendid! I do love Australia. Where are you going? The Gold coast?
426 Augustus: “Mrs J’s answer - to the effect that her husband deat with their mortgage repayment and associated paperwork - did not go down very well at all,”
That translates as: “When a powerful man puts a proposal on a piece of paper in front of me, I sign it.” So NOW we know why she was appointed a Minister by Blair!