The Milburn Candidature: Punters underwhelmed
April 12th, 2006
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..and Gordon says he hasn’t been told the date
Until the succession issue has been resolved almost all senior Labour figures are going to have to negotiate themselves through fierce leadership-related questioning whenever they agree to be interviewed. And even after they have left the studios their every word will be subject to intense scrutiny by journalists looking for a story - particularly on quiet news days.
Even Gordon Brown is not immune - all reporters seemed to want to talk about at the end of his trip to Mozambique was the date of the handover and the Chancellor had to admit that he did not know.
Meanwhile the “hint” on Sunday that the former Health Secretary, Alan Milburn, might be considering a challenge has had almost no impact on the markets. There has been no rush by punters to get onto Milburn and his price, after some initial movement, has started to ease. The last bet traded on the Betfair exchange was at price of 18.5/1.
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Perhaps an even more interesting betting statistic is that the total amount wagered on the tall Geordie on Betfair since the the market started eleven months ago stands at just £1,382. That works out at just under £4 a day.
Milburn is not seen as a credible figure who could secure support in any of the three constituencies that will make up the electorate for this contest. He is labelled as a Blairite and that is going to do him little good amongst his fellow MPs, the trade unions and the ordinary party members.
Because of its hunger for power Labour at all levels has tolerated a leader for twelve years who has run against the grain of the party. Tony has or had that vital ingredient of being seen as an election winner. Milburn simply has not got that and he has no chance at all.
If Gordon is to face a challenge a lot will depend on the electoral climate at the time. If the Tories do not appear a threat then choosing a someone with solid Labour credentials will seem less of a risk. The faltering of Tory progress in the polls of the past couple of months has led to a bit of a movement to Alan Johnson - but only a touch.
In the betting Brown remains the 0.36/1 favourite. I can see no reason to bet for or against him. Once Tony has made his time-table known this market will explode and there will be a dramatic tightening of the Brown price. But who wants to tie up money for what could be several years for this rate of return?
Mike Smithson
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I agree. If there is any movement in this market it will come on May 5th (both on date and on successor). That is assuming nothing dramatic from Blair in the interim.
One factor that could affect both Blair and Brown (and hence the Labour Party) over the next few weeks is petrol. If oil stays as high as it is - which is entirely possible - we could well see £1/litre as a standard over large parts of the country by May 5th. As this is in no small way related to Blair’s war in Iraq, the results at the locals should be affected, so more pressure and an earlier handover? Of course, it’s all a domino theory, and if one domino doesn’t fall, then the conclusion might be nonsense, but from the feedback I’m getting on the doorstep there is no enthusiasm for Labour at all and this could be a tipping point.
I’ve said it before, but…
The risk for Brown will not be from Milburn, Reid or Clark none of whom would win a ballot of the Labour CLPs. PLP or Unions, nor will the threat come from much younger figures like Miliband, instead the real/credible threat will emanate from the “soft left” of the party.
As things stand Labour’s MPs. Affiliates and Membership remain unimaginative enough to be solidly behind Brown there seems to be little appreciation of the recent polling showing him doing worse than Blair against the Tories while at the same time Labour still discernibly leftwing membership are prone to projecting their own fantasies onto what Brown would be like as leader.
The risk for Brown is two fold, firstly should he continue to be cast as politically very close to what has been Blair’s trajectory for the last decade or so then he risks softening his broad support amongst the Labour membership this support could then easily be undermined by an acrimonious transfer of power with Blair leaving sooner than it is perceived he would have liked compelling an aggressive challenge from the Blairite right of the party from someone like Milburn.
In such a situation where Blair has left office under a cloud, the Labour Party is seen to be divided, Blairite and Brownite acolytes are publicly seen to be briefing against one another then you might well get to a “tipping point” where a broad section of “soft” Brown supporters within the Labour Party membership feel they want to be right of the both the Blaire and Brown camps and instead nominate a unity candidate while at the same time a similar attitude, as well as a fear for their seats, might compel the PLP to look for a similar unity candidate.
The end result of this IMHO is to push forward someone from the Labour Party’s “Soft Left”, who can command the confidence of the PLP and cabinet, win amongst the party membership and trades unions and then go on to be competitive against Cameron and the Conservatives.
The obvious candidates who would fit the above criteria seem to be Alan Johnson or Hillary Benn.
Both command the confidence of the PLP and Cabinet, both have personal and political “narratives” which would play well amongst the Labour Party membership (better than Brown IMO) and both would be credible party leaders in an election campaign, what’s more both have the advantage of being largely unassociated with the Blair/Brown divide or ministerial “plotting” while also being “English” a much bigger advantage over Brown electorally than some seem to think.
“still discernibly leftwing membership” - evidence please. I thought polls showed that Blair’s strongest support comes from Labour members? I’d hardly describe either HB or AJ as ’soft left’ either. Hilary was a special adviser to Blunkett and is New Labour through and through. (Personally I’m a big fan of his)
You’ve to be very sure of backing anything as short as 1.36 (GB to be next leader). Very little is ever ‘free money’. But this runs in close.
GB is everything his party wants. Labour activists will be thrilled with his elevation.
We will learn nothing from the socialist or the tory posters on here about either the competence or the attractiveness of the man—their views are known.
The LDs are closer to the floating voter. Are their activists ‘worried’ about the impact of GB on their marginal support? If they are not concerned about his impact, and they are right, then he is a losing choice for the govt. But if we read here that they (correctly) feel they’d lose support to the govt with GB in the saddle, then he’ll get re-elected.
5 - interesting point, David, and probably right. I’ll bear that in mind in the next few weeks and report back if I hear anything.
5 - and I should have added I agree with your point about Turkey and the EU, too.
Test
Hilary is very popular but not especially careerist - it’s said that he declined a promotion from his current job (which would have built up his CV, of course) because he felt he wanted to see through what he was doing at DfID. All the more credit to him, but not the behaviour of someone planning an assault on the summit. In any case Gordon’s still a shoo-in for the leadership.
I expect predominantly bad results for Labour on May 5 but also low turnout. There will be consolation prizes and I can’t see it having any long-term impact. I definitely don’t think that whether petrol is 92p or 97p or £1.02 will make a big difference (or that it has much to do with Iraq, frankly). People who vote primarily on fuel prices stopped voting Labour back in the fuel protest days, and in general stopped voting at all since nobody is promising slashed duties.
Nick, but be honest: when would you say it would have any long-term impact on your party?
Can you honestly tell us the succession and fights over it will not damage Labour?
Re: the Scottish poll outlined by Jack W at the end of the previous thread.
Yougov Scotland poll :
10/10 Certain to vote :
Lab 30% -5 .. SNP 29% +5 .. Lib Dem 19% +4 .. Con 13% -4 .. SSP 4% -2 .. Green 3% +3%.
Unfiltered figures :
Labour 30% .. SNP 26% .. Lib Dem 20% .. Con 14% .. SSP 4% .. Green 4%.
Not good for Labour, Good for SNP- probably enough to say Moray will be OK anyway, Good for Lib Dems, Awful for Tories, Terminal for SSP, OK for Greens.
5 and 6 At least a local LibDem/UKIP alliance,then. A commonality of views on leaving the EU and keeping out non-christians.
I didn’t think you were so far away from the Invisible Emperor, Tabman.
The Blair Switch Market is the only market to play on this. I have tried to inject a little liquidity into it, but it is not easy.
11 IIRC SSP and Green ( as last time ) will not be putting up candidates in the Constituency section of the voting which may make a difference in some marginal seats .
14 - The SSP conference voted (IIRC) to put up candidates in some seats. Glasgow Pollock being the most obvious one. As I’ve said before I am unconvinced that turnout will be as great as this polls suggest (60%+) when last time was less than 50%. Still you never know!
Interesting quote One close ally of the Prime Minister said: “Of course there are concerns about Gordon and whether he has the touch and feel to win Labour another election.
“There is a sense that the challenges we face now are different to the challenges we faced in 1997.
The unattributed source (Milburn ?) is right to be concerned. The Dour One will no doubt succeed to the increasingly poisoned chalice of Nulab and find himself confronted by two questions which are sinkers:
1 Do you agree with all Labour policies (Iraq and the NHS, ID cards etc etc) over the last eleven years? Answer yes, and he is Blair II with all the taint that implies. Answer no, and he will be seen as a faintheart who valued his career more than his principles.
2 Do you believe in real democracy? Yes of course. So why do you continue to vote on English only affairs?
4.”“still discernibly leftwing membership” - evidence please. I thought polls showed that Blair’s strongest support comes from Labour members? I’d hardly describe either HB or AJ as ’soft left’ either. Hilary was a special adviser to Blunkett and is New Labour through and through. (Personally I’m a big fan of his) ”
I don’t know if it’s leftwing or not (I could guess it’s something in the middle), but I think Labour membership tend to be quite loyal recently…that’s why they answer they don’t want him to leave (because they would damege him and the party doing so).
I wouldn’t describe Alan Johnson as “soft left”. Actually it’s usually described as a Blairite (and as an “ultra-blairite” trade union hater by the Campaign Group)
O/T - After the excitement of the Italian elections, can we look forward to Betfair having a French market soon? Certainly the beeb seems to be talking about the runners and riders…
16, B2W. Excellent post.
9. “Hilary … declined a promotion from his current job .. not the behaviour of someone planning an assault on the summit.”
He has avoided politically difficult policy areas and the TBGBs. He occupies the very pinnacle of the moral high ground, being kind to poor people everywhere (except Britain). All his political capital remains intact and is steadily growing. It’s the family business, after all.
His only poroblem is the adjective: “Hilarious” doesn’t have quite the same thrust as “Brownite”.
Commentator at 10: I’m loyal but honest. If I think something is likely to damage Labour, I probably won’t say so here - too much risk of being quoted. But I won’t write something I don’t believe to be true. If I don’t comment on something, that could be the reason (or it could be simply that I’m too busy).
To reply to your question: nearly everyone including nearly all Labour MPs regards the steady drip of ’succession’ stories as tiresome. I doubt if it shifts many votes (”I’m a Labour voter, I’m bored with reading about Blair/Brown, I’m gonna vote Tory”??) but it’s obviously bad for morale and perhaps turnout - one reason I expect the May results to be poor for Labour. But I think the succession itself will produce a honeymoon for GB, whether or not he’s opposed.
Islingtonian Wouldn’t it be Bennite and sound terribly left wing? Although I must say that when that was applied to the supporters of his father I always wondered what had hapopened to the supporting cast of Bill and Weed.
B2W - Surely it would be ‘New Bennite’ or ‘Newbie’?
22. BTW - “Bennite” would be something of an albatross around Hilary’s neck. How about “NuBennite”? There’s a thought…
17. Presumably, given that Labour’s membership has haemmoraghed in recent years, we are down to the loyalist hardcore anyway.
[22] If you’re old enough to remember The Flowerpot Men, I have a sneaking suspicion you thought the NuLab chalice was “poisoned” back in ‘97, B2W - so in what ways is it “increasingly” so now?
Nick Palmer I do not doubt your sincerity but as a supporter of a government and party which finds it impossible not to put spin even on telling me the time of day, you have a credibiity gap. It may not be of your making but it is real none the less.
And the Brownian honeymoon - he has been living in the same house with us for a long time now and although he has tried to hide his bad spending habits it is all becoming clearer to us every day. And we remeber his promises too. So the honeymoon might last for the duration of a pub lunch, but don’t bet on it being even that long.
When I was a kid I loved Mr. Benn. And I still do now!
As if by magic, the shopkeeper appeared!
Nick P: fair enough. Thank you.
26 IA What makes the Nulab poisoned chalice more toxic now? Well, where do I start? In no order of priority but lets think…….
- Incompetence in running a war and a health service.
- Tax credits chaos.
- Pension raids and the resulting pensions shambles that is so disastrous for so many people
- spin
- Democratic deficit in England from ill thought out constitutional reforms
- Bad laws drafted for PC purposes that fail to meet the need: terrorism bills, criminal justice bill, Human Rights Act etc etc All of which a half competent government could have got right
- Dodgy dossiers
- David Kelly and dodgy enquiries
- Arresting octogenarians under terrorism legislation
- Foot and mouth massacres
- fiddling the crime figures
- Police mergers and the removal of control further and further from the consumers
- Leaving the armed forces without the people or the kit to do the job that Nulab constantly demand?
- Spin
- Education, especially the dumbing down from top to bottom
- Sleazy jobs for the Nulab cronies
- Spin
- Wasting money on poorly thought out overseas aid that does more harm than good. It could be spent much more effectively ( Gordo should listen to nelson Mandela and not just take a photo op)
- Waste generally, Nulab talk about their spending, forgetting that it comes from the tax payer, and like anyone else spending someone else’s money, it is passed out with too little concern for value or effectiveness
Do I need to go on? I can you know?
I sould have thought that Benn didn’t want to move into the poisoned chalice of work and pensions, he’s not stupid. I fully agree that Benn and Johnson are best placed, the electorate haven’t seen enough of them to link them with the previous regime and a fresh start will be important.
Regarding the Scottish poll, if the tories are doing so badly in Scotland that must mean they are doing better in England (or Wales). We shall see if that’s true in the locals.
blue2win - i could list twice as many achievements and a list twice as long of awful things the thatcher and major govts did. what is the point. ZZZZZZZzzzzz
Bally Eric The point is that I am responding to IA at 26. I know answering questions with clear answers is not a Nulab habit, but then I am not of that party.
As for Thatcher and Major, who are they? History. Who is the government today that should be held to account? Nulab.
Nulab have used the ‘The Tories used to do it’ line to death. That really is a yawn of a response from you. After nearly ten years of Blair Brown it is not the real question. You might as well say that Eden did it, or Disraeli did it or Cromwell or Richard III.
It is Nulab wot done it now.
Get real.
[20][31] The point, Eric, is that it amuses me to wind him up
What I don’t understand is why he puts his energies into promoting any political party, given that he thinks anyone else spending someone else’s money does so with too little concern for value or effectiveness - we should have some fun watching him get out of that one
5. I agree wholeheartedly with your comments re partisan posters. I find this site excellent in many respects. But it can be hard work sifting through the many biased opinions expressed, to identify the few valuable nuggets of discerning political judgement which inform wise political betting opportunities.
32, It’s interesting to note that most of the things you make reference to were already known before May 2005. Some of the other points such as the terrorsism laws were explicit manifesto commitments. Who won the general election?
If just listing government mistakes was enough to secure victory Michael Howard would be PM now.
Less than a year ago your party stood on a manifesto that even the man who wrote it now thinks was a load of rubbish. That could be called a credibility gap…
re David @ 5. I’m planning an article on this because from the polling it appears that GB has a special appeal to Lib Dems but that he does not quite carry forward all existing Labour supporters some of whom move to the Tories.
Blue2win.
Tabman was agreeing with me about supporting Turkish entry to the EU. You thought that odd? I think the tories are in favour as well, but at the moment they aren’t spending any of their time building alliances with anyone, so its hard to tell. They even seem to have fallen out with the Torygraph…
To succeed in politics, everyone needs to be your ‘friend’. TB is the master, but neither DC nor GB seem to have learnt that simple truism from him.
The betting market for next Chancellor seems not to have attracted much interest from punters so far. Presumably there will still be a strong neo Blairite wing of New Labour who will want strong representation at Cabinet level after Tony gives way to Gordon. Is Alan Milburn a serious candidate for the the Chancellor’s job in the interests of having a counterweight to Gordon’s old Labour tendencies?
Nick Palmer - are you prepared to give your views of the possibility of this scenario?
Ian D @ 35:
“That could be called a credibility gap…”
It could also be called being a team player (euch, sorry about dreadful management speak..) and carrying out one’s assigned task.
Unless I’m very much mistaken, DC was not leader during the last election, and the final say in the content of the manifesto would have belonged to MH.
milburn will NOT be the new labour ‘flag bearer’. he was crap at health and crap during the election and has no base in the PLP. the next chancellor, i fear, will almost certainly be alastair darling. new labour flag bearer far more likely to be charles clarke.
39 - I thought Cameron wrote the last manifesto?
40. Gosh, Clarke or Milburn? I’ve still to decide who’s worse!
Rather testy this morning aren’t we? I suppose yesterday/today has been a bit of a come down after the excitements of the Italian election.
Sleaze is not good, but if all you do is attack each other on that front all you will get is “you are all as bad as each other”. It would be a refreshing change to see genuine and respectful debates about each others ideas… do hope that you get some soon
Moving on- Mike, intuitively I don’t buy the idea that GB is particularly appealing to Lib Dem voters- too controlling in policy and humourless in presentation. Seems to me that his franchise is probably more left wing than Blair’s- don’t really see how that makes him generally more appealing to Liberals (either social or economic). Will therefore be very interested (but probably sceptical) about the polling evidence that you present- looking forward to it.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4896956.stm
What was it about leopards and spots then?
44. did she say she doesn’t want ethnic minority candidates or that they’re vote losers in her ward/constituency?
Depending on if its sooner or later there will be either a young turk chancellor (Miliband/Alexander/Kelly/Johnson) or an old-timer (Straw/Clarke). Almost certainly with Ed Balls as Chief Sec.
Darling would be a shoo-in were he not seen as too brownite and too Scottish, and you want to mitigate your leader’s weakspots not exacerbate them.
43. Perhaps Mike’s point is that Brown is appealing to left-wing voters who are recent defectors to the Lib Dems, not to die-hard Lib Dems.
25 - Fred, there still seems to be a lot of Marxists and Trots left in the Labour Club at my university. Its quite amusing actually to see the, sometimes quite public, in-fighting between the Blairites and Trots within the club
46 - You know the Labour party far better than I ever shall, but could Balls move straight from the backbenches to the Cabinet? I’m working on the basis (a questionable assumption I accept) that he will not get a junior Ministerial post under TB.
Re. 49, the assumption’s only half-questionable, John O. Note, for example, Blair’s vindictiveness towards Ed Balls’ spouse, Yvette Cooper (demoting her after the 01 election from Minister of State to Parliamentary Under-Secretary) after Balls allegedly shouted at Blair over switching the election date that year. As a result, one of our better ministers is stranded as a Minister of State at the ODPM, while that Dallek-voiced muppet Kelly is in the Cabinet.
Re. 4, agreed. While an adviser to Blunkett, Benn came up with the idea of performance-related pay for teachers. As for promotion, I agree that Benn turned down DWP because he saw it as a poisoned chalice, but he’d almost certainly have taken Transport had Blair (as he wanted to, or so I’ve read) offered it to him in the post-election reshuffle.
[47] That might be a point, although a lot of the voters that switched from Labour to Lib Dem last time were in previously Tory seats- e.g Manchester Withington, so again I am scratching my head on this.
52. cicero, but we couldn’t be sure the last time switchers in those seats were former tories too (certainly the LDs got former tory voters in those seats, but probably not all their vote is made up by former tories)
37-david kendrick
‘Tabman was agreeing with me about supporting Turkish entry to the EU.’
So are you saying that its ok to completely ignore the voters in Europe?
Less than 12 months ago in the successfull NO campaigns in the EU constitution referendums in France & Holland, one of the major points that united both the successful NO camps was that they didn’t want Turkey in the EU.
Even TB commented after both votes that it was time to listen to the voters and in his usual way three months later did a U turn & started accession negotaitaions with Turkey.
And you wonder why people don’t bother to vote these days!
53. Yes the student and ethnic minority switchers for example are unlikely to have been predominantly Tories….there was also a less well defined group of switchers I would label the ‘pacifist lefties’ who also would be unlikely to have been former Tory voters. It’s difficult to be sure though, as there is scant hard evidence on the social background of switchers in 2005, and what there is may well not be very reliable.
53 - That is true, but anecdotally I think switchers in 2005 were very often within the same not-overly-tribal-centerist group which frequently switches (drifting Tory-SDP in the 80s, then towards Labour increasingly in the 90s). Fred always takes the view that the Lib Dem vote boost in 2005 was principally from Old Labour and other hard left types - no doubt a sincere enough view but just not one I buy into based on my own admittedly limited experience.
David K and Tabman I am pleased to find that I had misunderstood you. I must have missed a post or two on this subject. So my apologies.
In my defence I must say that UKIP, which David K often supports, are fairly up front and personal in their antagonism to Turkey in regard the EU. I assumed, wrongly, that David was following the party line.
[52] Yes, I think you are right but- while I don’t want to prejudge too much the evidence that Mike may have- my point is that if GB’s franchise is more left wing than Blair’s then the fact that former Tories also voted Lib Dem in formerly Conservative seats makes it questionable that GB would erode Lib Dem support overall through having a more left wing image, but as I say, I have not see the data that Mike has, so will await it with interest.
11: Can’t draw much of interest from the Yougov survey. The breakdown of the statistics are pretty inconclusive and don’t seem to show any obvious trends. My take home messages are:
1) It doesn’t show any evidence of a large soft labour vote that I have repeatedly come across in canvas returns — failure of method in canvasing or something to do with YouGov cross-section. Whether this goes SNP, LibDem or stays has effected recent results in Scotland.
2) Curious that SNP’s support is very generationally skewed yet this is NOT apparently correlated with a drop off in support for independence in younger age brackets.
3) Similarly the opposite skew (younger preference) for the LibDems is encouraging in the long run for LD’s.
4) Cons must be disappointed by lack of significant effect in the ABC1 bracket; still the 55+ bracket.
I see another Nulab cave in is in the works. Look after the trade union payola, ignore the tax payer.
56. James, I think Fred was thinking about Brian Sedgemore’s type of switchers.
I think that switchers to LD are probably not homogeneous and you could find different types of them.
bally eric@41:
Well, DC was indeed “Tory Policy Chief” (BBC’s words), charged with compiling the manifesto. However this is in the context of a shadow cabinet with each member having responsibility for their particular area, and the leader having overall responsibility .
The leader gets to choose the shadow cabinet. The shadow cabinet sets the policy. The policy chief is the coordinator and scribe.
Well, that’s my take on it anyway. In my work situation sometimes my arguments win the day and the company’s policy reflects my view of the situation. sometimes other’s arguments win, but I still have to carry out the board’s decision to the best of my ability, whether I fully subscribe to the view or not.
I’m sorry but I would contend that the Blairite wing of the Labour party is stronger than the far-left, traditionalist, soft left & Brownite wings combined and represents the majority of Labour party members. I think Milburn would make a serious and credible candidate and I think that, as David Cameron and Chris Huhne (nearly) demonstrated, a high profile isn’t necessary to win a leadership election in a major political party.
I think that the majority of Labour party members support ‘New Labour’ principles and on issues like the Iraq war this is buttressed by support from traditionalists (historically Labour has been the more hawkish of the two parties - the 80s were an aberration in this regard). I accept that there is some discontent on civil liberties issues (eg ID Cards) but there is no guarentee that Brown is the more socially liberal candidate (his stance is pretty much unknown). I also think much of the problem with the terrorism legislation is a failure to emphasise that it is a temporary measure - I don’t think any party member seriously doubts we need it while Bin Laden is still at large.
Saying that I do think that if elected any member of the cabinet would do a good job and I’m confident that whatever happens in 2008 (which I guess is when Blair will leave) Labour will confortably win the next election.
62 RichardS. That sounds great, except Cameroon signed off on the manifesto and if he wasn’t fully committed to it he could have resigned from the shadow cabinet and disassociated himself from it or an element of it in his Election Address as Conservative MPs have done in the past.
63 Matthew. With indifferent boundary changes for Labour at the next election, may I ask your definition of “Labour will comfortably win the next election”. Are you predicting Labour gains in the 25+ region?
61 - Certainly - there is no doubt that there are as many types of switching as there are people, and that very odd switches occur (there are no doubt hundreds of people in the UK who voted Kinnock in 1992 and Major in 1997 for example). But I think Brian Sedgemoor type switching was a lot less common than some imagine - certainly based on my own limited experience it was a lot less common than centerist-type switching.
What odds can you get on Labour maintaining or increasing their majority in 2009?
67 JM. The spred betting firms highlighted on the right from Cantor downwards offer seat spred odds.
However if you’re unfamiliar with their workings beware as your liabilities if you lose can be high.
63.”Saying that I do think that if elected any member of the cabinet would do a good job and I’m confident that whatever happens in 2008 (which I guess is when Blair will leave) Labour will confortably win the next election. ”
For some reasons I can’t see Ian McCartney or Hilary Armstrong winning an election……
49 - David Miliband was no2 in Education within a year of being elected, Liam Byrne took 10 months to go in at Health, and Andrew Adonis was a Minister in Education as soon as the Queen had consented to his peerage.
Obviously cabinet would be a step further than that, but it clearly would not be unprecedented.
69 Hi Andrea, I see Burli is hanging on like grim death. What’s the mood in the C/R camp ?
re tory pc’s is cameron gonna sack the guy that said he was sick of paying for lazy irish bastards or words to similar effect. He was banned from public office for it but has managed to squeeze back in the tories.
surely cameron should chuck this nutter out?
36 - Mike
I rather think your hitting the proverbial nail on the head.
Brown as leader might reclaim some support which flowed to the LibDems in ’05, but had previously voted Labour.
Yet at the same time Brown would be likely to lose the moderate/swing voters who Blair has kept tight hold of since ’97 even into the tough election of last year.
The end result is that while Brown could potential win back as much as 2-3% from the LibDems (though ultimately I doubt it) he will at the same time stand to lose a similar number (if not greater) of voters to the Tories.
And finally the typically Labour voters who may have plumed for the LibDems in ’05 are, with the exception of a number of seats not going to have a huge part on the outcome of the next election.
What is more if Brown where to continue with essentially Blairite polices (albeit with a change of tone) then it easy to imagine the LibDems and even the Tories making further ground amongst liberal, progressive, professional, white collar voters (lets call them “Progressive Professionals”) while at the same time the Tories would still stand to seriously challenge for moderate/swing voters.
In short Brown will find it harder to appeal to the kind of voters (moderate/swing voters) who decide general elections while at the same time he will ultimately struggle to reclaim the voters he would have hoped to reclaim almost automatically from the LibDems and abstentions.
Of course all this depends on the Tories and LibDems also getting their act together and its not unfeasible to suppose that both opposition party’s could let the opportunity slip through their figures as they did last year… yet it becoming clear that the electoral geography that Cameron and Brown will be fighting on wont be as beneficial for Labour as it was when it was Blair and Howard last year.
63 - Matthew JCG Partridge
Trust me the majority of Labour members while primarily loyalists are also primarily leftwing, certainly to the left of Brown and absolutely to the left of Blair.
The PLP is different with a great contingent of members who are cast in the image of their leaders so, as has been the case for decades; the PLP is certainly more moderate than the Labour membership (Nick Palmer would disagree).
Finally the Unions are probably on a par with the Labour membership politically but ultimately their into brinkmanship and want “what they can get” for their members so will probably opt for a comprise someone they see as electable but also representative of their interests – in short Brown.
So I think you’ll find the broad majority of the Labour Party fairly leftwing yet at the same time loyalist, support for Iraq, Foundation Hospitals, Trust Schools etc… is very weak, with opposition but also a certain indifference (never underestimate “tribalism” especially within the Labour Party).
The reason that I support Turkish membership of the EU is simple and uncomplicated. Are you more likely to have political union in Europe with the Turks inside or out? Can you imagine a Franco/German influenced European govt including Turkey, with its weight proportional to its population?
UKIP is pro free trade, but very anti European political union. With Turkey as part of the common market, there would be more free-trade, and less danger of political union. Good news, n’est pas?
david, if you support free trade,do you support removing labour barriars. so as a e.u member i can go and work anywhere in the e.u relatively free of hassel?
71. Hi Jack, Silvio used a (surprisingly) moderate tone yesterday. He asked to verify the ballot papers, he talked about a “big coalition” and he admit he shouldn’t have used the “testicles” remark during the campaign.
But he has still to concede defeat. Now the “registers” and the disputed ballot papers will be checked, but we won’t immediately have a full recount (and they’ll probably take years to do it)
The 1 seat majority at the Senate will cause many problems!
72. who said it?
76 Andrea. Thanks. Perhaps Prodi should find a few new left leaning life Senators !!
Btw , how are the lifers determined?
andrea - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/04/12/ncounc12.xml&sSheet=/news/2006/04/12/ixhome.html
Come on cameron show strong leadership - give this guy the boot
70 - Without labouring (sic) the point, there’s a very significant difference between being appointed a PUSS (like Byrne) and that of becoming Chief Secretary in the Cabinet with responsibility for the entirety of public spending.
But that’s got me thinking. When was the last time a backbench Labour MP immediately joined the Cabinet without progressing through other posts. There’s Frank Cousins in October 1964 (who actually was a Cabinet Minister before becoming an MP) but since then….
50 - Richard, Thanks. I’d forgotten that.
…On the Tory side, IIRC John Davies in 1970 also achieved that feat. Both were ‘outsiders’ and were conspicuously unsuccessful as Ministers.
52 - I wouldn’t read too much into Withington’s being a former Tory seat. There have been a lot of demographic changes in that part of South Manchester over the past 20 years which make it much less likely to vote Conservative - the large increase in students and recent graduates, and conversion of houses into flats in Withington and Didsbury being the main ones.
78. Jack, 4 out 7 life senators will vote for him. The problem is that they don’t usually have a 100% attendance record (they’re old), so I suppose our version of Chief Whips should find someone better than Hilary
The Life Senators are named by the President of the Republic (all former President will become life senators)
79. red flag, thanks for the link
The balance of payment’s current account deficit is at an all time high and unemployment is still rising while personal indebtedness has gone through the roof. At the same time the government have created a massive liability in state sector pensions while private pension provision has been shot full of holes by the same government.
In the 70’s and 80’s this would have been front page news. A crisis. But today?
Are we living in a fool’s paradise. A nation all dressed by the tailor who made the amazing king’s new clothes.
[75 red flag] Yes, I certainly believe in free-trade. I have an old-fashioned degree in economics of the late 60’s—when that was par for the course. Should that mean freedom of movement of labour? For sure, just as free movement of capital is good.
As I’ve argued here before, from an economic point of view, immigration is almost always of economic benefit to the host nation, even at high levels. The problem is that even relatively small numbers of immigrants can be socially disruptive. There is a happy medium, but as an economist, I would draw that line somewhat higher than many.
82 Andrea. Thanks for that.
80. Balls would have more experience than almost the entire 1997 Labour cabinet and most of a 2009 Conservative cabinet.
79. Red Flag, I suppose the tories could remind that also Labour didn’t show a strong leadership in failing to throw John McDonnell out of the party when he said what he said about IRA actions.
Actually I recall a tory councillor who disgusting thing about disabled people last year….I think we could find many “nutters” amoung councillor in all parties
82 - Andrea, I thought the effective Senate majority was 3 (including this guy from South America who siad he would sit with “the Government”). Won’t the current President also be likely to support Prodi when he becomes a life Senator?
O/T Thanks for your latest cheeky e-mail. There are several ‘cottages’ dotted around the ward: unfortunately, most are inhabited by elderly ladies ;).
88. John, at the sanate it’s 158 vs 156 + the guy from South America.
His latest version is that he doesn’t know who he’ll support. He’ll have meetings with both Prodi and Silvio and he’ll present them his proposals and then he’ll decide.
david - good good - is it ukip policy to have freedom of movement and capital, also surley different currencies are barriars to trade as well?
See from what i understand your position is a very reasonable one, and i agree with free movement of labour capital, but pulling us out the e.u wont help that. It will lose what benefits we do gain - better to fight for the view in europe than be on the outside looking in and being still subject to their regulations
72 Red Flag It would be useful if you could get your facts right. He was banned by the undemocratic Standards Board and that was overturned on appeal. In the meantime he had been suspended by the party but then stood as an independent. Another attack on him through the Standards Board also failed An 18-month ban, imposed for being rude to benefits officers during an interview with one of his constituents, was also overturned.
I don’t know the man nor how righteous he is, but your post is simply wrong.
88, and John, if I send you “cheeky” emails, I do it in the hope you don’t report them here
89 - Ah. OK. Thks.
83
It may take time, but eventually it will hit the system whether it be the exchange rate (balance of payments deficit) and / or increased housing repossessions (personal debt),you can’t buck the economic basics.
[88] But not all of them…
92 - But the contents are always grasped closely to my b*som
74 David K Put that way it sounds reasonable and tactical, but you can’t dress UKIP policy up that way because that is not what they say on their official documentation.
UKIP want out of the EU entirely and having any truck with Turkish membership, which the Tories support, is clearly seen as beyond the pale.
The UKIP leaflet for candidates says The Conservatives even voted in favour of allowing Turkey into the EU, thus voting to increase the number of immigrants coming to live in Britain.
The immigration theme dominates most of the party literature.
96. since when you have a bosom?! has Jack effected you with all his Luxuria talks?
I see the LibDem civil war clouds are gathering as the Invisible Emperor stays, well, invisible.
99 Blue2win. Well as the Lib Dem poll ratings have risen since the Ming Dynasty began, perhaps silence is golden !!
100. for the LDs especially if you follow me
98 Andrea. As John O’s online political advisers, perhaps we should leave his ample bosoms for a full frontal political assault later in the campaign !
Re the possibility of a Milburn candidacy, surely the most important thing to remember, in the midst of this poliical shadowboxing, is that Tescos have today agreed to take 3000 copies of my forthcoming memoirs (Millions of Women are Waiting to Meet You; Bloomsbury, May 1st, £10.99), to be sold at their biggest supermarkets across the country.
And Costco are ordering 100 copies for each of their warehouse stores.
100 Invisibility is the only sensible course of action for the confused and dreary I suppose.
103 seanT. Expect Sainsburys’ profits to rise dramatically then !!
104 Blue2 Win. Shame then, you don’t take your own advice !
[73] Last time the Lib Dem battlefield was forecast to be largely against the Conservatives. If so, then by and large the Tories came away ahead- taking Newbury, Guildford, Ludlow, West Devon and Weston Super Mare and seeing off the Lib Dem challenge in Orpington, West Surrey, West Dorset, Haltemprice, Isle of Wight and Eastbourne, although the Lib Dems did take Taunton, Westmoreland and Solihull and sunstantially increased their majority in Cheadle, North Norfolk, Mid Dorset, Brecon, Teignbridge, Twickenham, Yeovil and most of the Tory Scottish targets.
Next time the key battlegrounds with the Conservatives will include: Winchester, Carshalton, Romsey, Eastleigh, Cheltenham, Torbay, Somerton, Hereford. While the Lib Dems will doubtless be targetting the seats they lost last time plus Eastbourne, Totnes, West and North Dorset,
As far as Labour/Lib dem seats are concerned, if you take the view that students might unwind next time, then of the 12 gains against Labour then Cambridge, Manchester Withington, Leeds NW, Bristol W and and Cardiff Central which have above average concentrations of students, would be vulnerable (as might Ceredigion, which also has a lot of students, to Plaid). Also you might include Hornsey and Wood Green as the kind of liberal professional territory you are talking about.
Labour seats now vulnerable to the Lib Dems on this battlefront could be: Edinburgh North and South, Oxford East, Durham, Hampstead, Holborn, Liverpool Garston and Wavertree.
So looking at these seats there seem to be two battles in prospect. Scotland and the student seats: the battle is Labour/Lib Dem. In the rural and suburban south, though, the battle is still Con/Lib Dem. Therefore, I wonder if the GB effect can be that significant in these rather specific seats.
Mathematically-inclined punters may be amused to see Daniel Davies’ model of Blair’s departure date, based on when Labour MPs have the most incentive to commit regicide:
http://crookedtimber.org/2006/04/07/modelling-lame-duck-prime-ministers/
The model predicts that the switch should occur anytime from April 2006, with speculation reaching a height by July 2007 (if Blair’s not already gone by then).
However, if Blair is still in power on September 2008, the model predicts he will most likely stay on until the next election.
So that solves the betting dilemma. Thank goodness for economists!
labour wins when it can get the majority of the general left support of behind it, tactical voting etc etc, or if it can get a sizeable amount of the soft tories on board.
It wins big when it does both - 97, 2001
[108] Model does not forecast removal of PM for reasons other than lack of support amongst MPs- therefore predictive power of model on that point is low. Does predict when Labour MPs might be most fractious though…
108 - Interesting from a Mathematical viewpoint, although it really has too many simplifications and assumptions to be valid. (Understandable though they are to get the Maths do-able…)
[110] But the model does assume a constant vindictiveness function, I think it could be improved if there was a feedback loop from the Tony-grovelling function, unhelpful polls or both…
I see that Dr. Ian Paisley’s wife, Eileen has been given a peerage, surely this should not be allowed.
[112] As he says himself, the various functions should be discounted too.
blue2win at 60: Eh? The employers’ body which has persuaded the unions to call off the strikes (Local Government Association) is Conservative-controlled. You can portray this as Cameron reaching out to the unions if you like…
goupillon: sorry, I’m genuinely rubbish at guessing who goes where in Cabinet reshuffles even in the week they happen, let alone years ahead. Pass!
andrea at 76: Take years to do the recount…wow, Betfair, sitting on a million quid till it’s decided, must be tempted to contribute to Berli’s legal costs.
113 - Why? I’m no fan of the DUP, but she was a councillor before he was ever elected to anything.
Yes, But how many councillors get peerages?. I am happy for David Trimble.
re Blue2win @ 99
the “Invisible Emperor” has been highly visible today in Ambleside. We are having converted a former Methodist church into 15 1 & 2 bed flats for rent by local people. Innovative: not a word Cons will be use to!
Ming (and Elspeth) were both on good form; there are plenty of orange diamonds around; and local press, radio and TV (Border) interviews were given. All in all highly visible.
(Last time a LibDem leader visited Ambleside was 2001 during the Election campaign, and the weather was awful. Today there was no rain even if the nearest thing to sun that was achieved was the humour of all the participants: so even the weather-gods are looking more faourably on the LibDems)
109 - wasn’t the win of ‘97 largely the effect of the tactical voting between Lib Dems and Labour voters?
One thing which those Tories such as Fred, who wish that the Lib Dems would shift to the Left, tend to forget is, that this happened aöready in ‘97 and the Tories lost. Though the Lib Dems moved closer to the Labour, that didn’t mean that they would have won seats from Labour. But it meant, that the Labour voters in those seats, where Labour didn’t have a chance, were more inclined to lend their votes to the Lib Dems (and vice versa).
Now wouldn’t this mean, that if the Lib Dems would shift to the Right, the Conservatives and Lib Dems would be more inclined to lend votes for the other and against Labour in constituencies, where they themselves don’t stand a chance?
117 - plenty of Lib Dem councillors do
119. The Lib Dems have already, IMHO, shifted to the left. At the last election they fought on a platform which included, inter alia, higher taxes for almost everyone earning above average, less reform in the NHS, and a pacifist foreign policy. They reaped the benefit by winning seats from Labour, who had vacated the left over the previous few years.
Meanwhile, they started to lose ground against the Conservatives, but the gains from Labour greatly outweighed the losses to the Tories. All I have been saying is that they should stick to a winning formula and abandon the weird idea of moving to the right by trying to exhume the corpse of Victorian Liberalism.
115-Nick Palmer
You will no doubt recall only two weeks ago at PMQ’s TB advised that the government couldn’t possibly find £ 15 million (although several commentators have said it more likely to be half that amount),to compensate the people the Ombudsman has confirmed lost their pensions through no fault of their own and are not covered by the pensions safety net.
And yet two weeks later we hear that GB can find £ 8.5 billion to pay for the education of children on another continent.
Shouldn’t such a huge expenditure of taxpayers money be approved by Parliament both in terms of the scale of the expenditure and whether or not UK taxpayers money should be spent on deserving cases in the UK before being spent on another continent?
122
Second line should read £ 15 billion.
119 - “wasn’t the win of ‘97 largely the effect of the tactical voting between Lib Dems and Labour voters?”
Tactical voting may have helped, but the Tory vote going from 42% in 1997 to 31% in 1997 was the main reason. With that kind of collapse in the underlying Tory vote, they would have lost regardless of the tactical vote. 14 million people vote Tory in 1992 - only 9.6 million did in 1997.
107.” Labour seats now vulnerable to the Lib Dems on this battlefront could be: Edinburgh North and South, Oxford East, Durham, Hampstead, Holborn, Liverpool Garston and Wavertree.”
Cicero, other LD target from Labour are Islington North, Aberdeen South, Watford, Norwich South, Birmingham Hall Green and Derby North.
125. Islington South, not North. Sorry
From the Lib Dem Moray by-election site
“Just two weeks before polling in the Scottish Parliamentary by-election for Moray - a private poll carried out by Linda Gorn’s Lib Dem campaign team has revealed that it’s shaping up to be a close two horse race between the Liberal Democrat candidate and the SNP come election day on April 27th.
The poll is based on 600 local voters who were canvassed at the end of the first full week of campaigning. The results of the survey are as follows:
SNP 35.3%
Liberal Democrats 32.0%
Conservatives 18.4%
Labour 10.2%
Don’t Know 4.1%”
Nick Palmer
Although the Local Government Association, which is indeed Tory led, and the unions have agree detailed negotiation plans this is not without government intervention. The joint statement by both the unions and the LGA say in part:
The statement by the Minister for Local Government on 30th March laying Parliamentary Orders, including the Order to abolish the Rule of 85 from October 2006, provides a framework for developing a new-look scheme. He said that “in the light of discussions held yesterday with the Trade Unions and Local Government Employers, we are calling on both sides to begin talks, to start now on a nothing rule in nothing ruled out basis, to address the protection of existing Scheme members, the recycling of savings, and the development of a more equitable Scheme”.
So your implication that this move is independent of government hardly holds water, does it?
127. Accompanying bar chart, please?
127 Is there a bar chart with it?
Barfly Too damn quick for me.
Unfortunately not. They’re probably to bust making up the numbers.
[blue2win 97] I have been accused of being ’self-indulgent’ as a member of UKIP. But the gap btween the govt and the tories on some of the big issues of the day, such as health, education and Iraq appears small.
Pressure groups are only effective as parties, and I am in 100% agreement with their main strategy. Some of their tactics are plain wrong, but that is pretty unimportant.
For genuinely eccentric views, there is even one posting on this thread who thinks that Alan Milburn is a credible candidate against GB. I’ve thought of a logical reason for that—the poster might be his mother.
Re 132 read busy for bust
Noorderling They are probably going for bust.
David Kendrick
Tory Boy quoted this last year. Worth remembering when you say the tactics don’t matter. Others have said that.
First they came for the Communists,
and I didn’t speak up,
because I wasn’t a Communist.
Then they came for the Jews,
and I didn’t speak up,
because I wasn’t a Jew.
Then they came for the Catholics,
and I didn’t speak up,
because I was a Protestant.
Then they came for me,
and by that time there was no one
left to speak up for me.
by Rev. Martin Niemoller, 1945
Fred 121, is it not the case that the Liberal Democrats have stood still, whilst the Conservatives and Labour seem to be going right, right, right?
The Lib Dem figures have to be questioned, where were they taken, whom did they speak to, is it canvassing. Reports do indicate they are running quite a strong campaign.
However if they ended up polling 20% or less they would be laughed out of court at the next election.
On paper and considering todays YouGov poll in Scotland they may well be running second, but how far back or close to the SNP would be very questionable at this stage.
Does anyone know the odds being given out locally in the area. If I had to guess the final result at this stage I would say,
SNP 38
Lib Dem 25
Cons 19
Labour 13
Other 5
Mike, one comment you make stands out. Milburn doesn’t have Blair’s credibility as an election winner.
Now firstly, being a potential winner is going to be much less important this time. The Tories crave power most of the time. The time since perhaps 1990 has been exceptional in that they’ve been too busy squabbling. The Lib Dems are showing their first glimmerings of a hunger for power. Labour was at its hungriest perhaps ever in 1995 when (?) Blair was elected. That’s going to be much less important since Labour came to power and started getting fed up with each other.
Secondly though, why isn’t Milburn seen as a likely winner? He’s centrist and, I think, has gravitas (despite what someone here said about that requiring a public school manner and accent to have gravitas). The election is bound to be unpredictable at the time of the changeover, though it’s true what Mike says about the state of the Tories having some effect. Has there ever been polling about Milburn as a potential prime minister? It would only be relevant up to a point, of course, as many people don’t have a definite impression of him; but because he was Health Secretary his name recognition will be much higher than many Tories.
Against that there’s a need to stop voters turning Lib Dem. The more centrist a Labour leader, the more votes he’ll take from the Tories, but the more he’ll also lose to the Lib Dems (and for that matter, Respect and assorted socialists). Where both major parties always have to try to appease their core constituencies in order to win the leadership and ensure they have activists, in Labour it will also be important to keep waverers onside. Lib Dem defectors will both lose them inner city seats to the Lib Dems and marginal seats to the Tories. Conceivably another election win might result in the terminal or long-term demise of Labour, as the in-fighting will by then be intense and the Lib Dems are far better placed to benefit in terms of seats and votes than they ever were in the Tories’ darkest years.
138 - It is interesting that we have heard very little from Torys about how their campaign is going… presumably not as well as would be hoped… Any news MaxRomanov?
12 - B2W; my reference to Turkey was that it joining the EU would be a good thing - as David also argued - for the reason that it puts the kybosh on over-centralisation.
48 - I was amused to see that an ex leftwing member of COLS of my distant acquaintance went on to McKinseys …
Blue2win - are you having a nervous breakdown?
RE: Milburn, as anyone who has had the misfortune of working with him will tell you, is a very, very average politician. he was pretty forgettable as health secretary and he ran a very poor election campaign (until he was effectively ditched by tb). The only reason he is popping up at the moment with this utter guff about not ruling out running for the leadership is because he hates gordon and he also knows that if gordon wins the career of mr a milburn is over, permanently. he is desperate! ditto byers.
re 139. Gavin - I hope to be doing something on this tomorrow.
40 - Lennon, I wouldn’t read too much into it. I’ve not been involved at all and know very little about what’s going on up their (and i do live quite far away!). Other than myself their aren’t many other Scots Tory posters. All I would say is that all the media talk (and I would think their will be more on Sunday), which probably doesn’t appear in the English additions, is of a straight SNP/Tory fight.
Re 145 IIRC in the Dunfermline by-election, the press only realised there was a serious Lib Dem victory chance in the final days of the campaign. I wouldn’t place to much faith on what the press is reporting.
In Dunfermline the SNP also based their talking up of their chances on supposed canvass returns. They fell flat on their faces.
David(s) @ 138: You may be right, of course; but if the LibDems poll 19.5% in Moray, it’ll be under 20% and *still* their best result in the constituency in Westminster or Holyrood elections since 1983, and therefore, I suspect, since 1929.
There is an article on the Scots Independent website about recent SNP success in Scotland. It points out that whoever is the challenger to labour or who appears to be..is doing well at the moment. So very bad news for Labour and intersting for everyone else.
A very small straw in the wind but Plaid Cymru’s St Davids Day Appeal raised a record £60,000 beating every past past appeal by quite a distance….and we didnt have to sell a single peerage.
146 - It may be similar to the Lib Dem canvass that had them 1% behind the Tories in a council election in Edinburgh. They lost by 18%.
146. yes, the press sometimes gets it wrong: they descrobed Cheadle as neck to neck for the whole campaign, while the LD got a comfortable majority in the end (I don’t consider a 10% majority being “neck to beck”)
I don’t really trust canvassing returns reported in the press too (especially when the info comes from parties’ press release). According SNP they were second in Dunfermline, according Dennis Skinner’s canvassing no-one was going to vote LD in Dunfermline, according the LDs they were neck to neck with Labour in Islington North last year, according to Peter Vain Labour was neck to neck with Adam Price in Carmarthen East and Dinefwr, Bon Marshall-Andrews thought he had already lost (even worse because half of the votes had already been counted!),……
143. bally eric, I got the impression Alan Milburn has become a sort of Clare Short version for the right of the party.
49 - Another rubbish Lib Dem bar chart please!
I liked their General Election slogan in Sw Surrey - “only 861 to go”. They lost by 5711 votes.
Re Moray: In fact, now I look at the figures more carefully, this is a classic example of how each party could claim success. Suppose the result were SN 32% / Con 26% / Lab 26% / LibDem 16%: the SNs would have won, and would say that their % vote had dropped by less than the last time they lost Margaret Ewing’s personal vote (when she resigned from Westminster); the Cons would say they were at last recovering after seeing their % vote drop in every election since 1983 (except 1992), and that it was their best ever Holyrood % vote; the Labs would say they were back to their best ever level in the constituency (just below it, actually); and the LibDems would claim their best ever Holyrood % vote, and an increase of 4% on 2003. Spin to win.
Italian Update:
Silvio just said there has been lots of irregularities and the result must change.
153 - That is possible but I would be amazed if Labour polled anything like that. I think there were some issues with the RAF base up there (Kinloss IIRC) which resulted in job losses which harmed them quite badly.
54 - Someone put the cuffs on him quick, he might do a runner. Desperate stuff from a desperate man. Has Mills been seen fleeing the country yet by the way?
The Indy today was interesting, they were all but stated that SB colluded with the mafia and the arrest of the head yesterday was no coincidence. Of course they heavily imnplied rather than being overt but I don’t suppose the editor wants to end up wearing a concrete overcoat.
Anyone wishing to know more about the political history of Moray should take a look at this site. It’s very nationalistsic and has a bizarre comparison of George Lyon MSP to Adolf Hitler! But once you filter through the rhetoric it’s really quite good.
Lots of maps and things too if you like that sort of thing!
http://www.alba.org.uk/
Oh, and can someone tell me how I attach a web-site link to my name?
154,
Andrea, could it go to the courts as in Florida?
To decide the final outcome.
156. They’ve already started to look at disputed ballot papers. In Milan 91 out 139 disputed ballot papers were for the Italian Communists.
Today in Rome a couple of boxes full of ballot papers have been found in the rubbish! It seems that they were counted and the results written down in the registers by the tellers. Then the register was sent to the “Prefettura”, while they forgot to send the papers. So when the cleaning ladies found the boxes, they threw them away!
They have been counted and the numbers are the same one sent to the Interior Ministry.
157. Max, put the link in the “website” space (just at the top of the box for writing).
158. Dez, if I’ve understood well, now just the disputed votes (around 43,000 for the House od Deputies) and the registers with the figures for all polling stations will be checked.
Then you could ask for a full recount, but it should be done by “Giunta per le elezioni”, a special parliamentary committee. So they need to wait for the new parliament to be formed and then they could take years to do it. In the meantime the government could rule.
At least it’s what I’ve understood.
160 - Ah, I always wondered what that was for. OK I’ll see if it works!
John at 122: The substantial increase in overseas aid was an important part of Labour’s election manifesto and £8.5 billion over 10 years to help educate children in Africa seems to me a reasonable investment in a better world. The expenditure will however be approved each year in detail as part of the Departmental estimates, and you are free to seek to elect an MP who will oppose it, or indeed to stand in Broxtowe on a platform of spending all our money at home instead of on overseas aid.
You may have to stand for a fringe party, though, as I’m glad to say the Conservatives have changed their previous stance and now endorse the target of increasing development aid to 0.7% of GDP by 2013, and to be fair I think the LibDems have supported this objective for some time.
161. who’s is her hairdresser? what type of products does he/she use?
Max it worked. It is scary. Not for the weak hearted
Andrea, thanks for that.
It said on channel 4 news, France has congratulated the centre left on their victory.
However Britain and USA, have made no comment as yet.
How have the rest of the world reacted so far?
157 Dr Old’s site is a mine of information.
165. Zapatero has congratuled Prodi too.
USA are refusing to make a comment.
166 - It’s a phenominal amount of work he’s put into it. It’s probably the best website for Scottish Politics available.
167,
Maybe its lucky Italy are in the Euro, with all this future instability politically.
However, I suppose it always used to be that way since WW2.
Leon Brittain, was very depressed about the future of France and Italy, on Newsnight, rearding any structural change, regarding the economy in both these countries.
168. are you thinking you could impress us with her photo? she’s nothing against my heroine!
170 - Nothing prepares you for that!
And this person is my favourite political hotty!
171. Max, I could answer with Glenda naked or Chris Bryant in Yfronts….but that’s a “family” forum, so I picked up another one…..
Andrea A rather impressive Forza Italia Senator told BBC Newsnight last night that SB only wanted to wait for the official results before accepting them. He claimed that only unofficial results had been announced so far and that at the last election the difference between the two benefited the Right by about 36,000 which was obviously more than the current gap of 25,000 odd. Is the process now underway a normal checking of dubious ballots, as the Senator implied, or has a verification been specifically demanded? Also do you recognise the 36,000 figure. Apologies if you’ve dealt with these points already but I’ve only just the piece on my computer.
173. Blue Moon. They’re now checking “disputed” ballots and all polling stations registers (to see if the sums are right).
I don’t have the figures, but I think it has been said there was a difference of 36,000 votes, but I’m not sure if they were all in favour of the Right.
The total of disputes ballots are 43,000 for the House of Deputies.
In Milan it seems the majority of them are for the Union and not CDl (actually they’re for Italian Communists).
Now Berlusconi is claiming that there were irregularities in just one direction (so he’s actually saying we’ve rigged the election), that all spoilt papers need to be checked (over a million, but their number is down compared to 2001) and that the result “must” change (to be honest I’m a bit worried by that “must”).
who was the Forza Italia senator, btw?
It was Lucio Malan. He claimed that last time the rescrutiny of disputed ballots gave ‘us’ 36,000 more votes. He also claimed that the local scrutineers tended to be more left wing eg teachers. I’m not clear whether the disputed ballots get centrally checked or whether they’re rechecked locally. It sounds like the former. In fairness if the Left had lost this narrowly I think they would have been crying foul. I heard a Unione candidate threatening legal action when it looked as though SB had won.
but did he say how many votes the disputed ballots gave to the Left?
The scrutineers are now named by parties and picked at random like in the past and then parties’ representatives are present during the count.
The disputed ballots are checked at regional level.
btw, it’s a mess!
Andrea the clear implication of his remarks was that the Right picked up an extra 36,000 votes and that therefore it wasn’t clear who had won the election since the gap this time was a ‘mere’ 25,000. Whether that claim is accurate, I ‘ve no idea.
It’s ironic to hear Lucio Malan talking about votinh irregularities considering he was spotted voting for MPs who were not present in Parliament:
http://www.repubblica.it/gallerie/online/politica/margherita/1_g.jpg
162-Nick Palmer
So in other words bad luck to those individuals that through no fault of there own have lost their pensions,the Ombudsman is just for decoration,and clearly paying for the education program of another continent is clearly more important than these individuals who have of course being paying tax.
Naturally no such problems when it comes to increasing MP’s pension benefits or maintaining public sector pensions,an endless pot of UK taxpayers money.
152. Another rubbish whine about bar charts. Boring.
180: No, these are all separate issues and should be considered on their own merits. Obviously there’s a case for arguing that taxpayers generally should finance a generous compensation scheme for those who might not have been warned enough by past governments about pension risks. But you weaken the case by implying that it should be financed by not helping children who will otherwise spend their lives on the borderline of existence.
50
Your main point is probably correct but Yvette Cooper was technically moved sideways (I think in 2002) at Under Secretary level from the fairly high-profile Public Health job to something
in Constitutional Affairs. There have been rumours that she fell out with Milburn when they were both at Health.