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YouGov gives Cameron’s Tories a 3% lead (UPDATED)

April 29th, 2006

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    Lib Dems only up 1% and Blair’s ratings the worst ever

A new YouGov poll tonight has with comparisons on the last survey from the same pollster nine days ago CON 35 (+2): LAB 32 (-3): LD 18 (+1). Amongst a large “others” total the BNP is at 6% – down one. UKIP and the Greens are on 3% each.

The declining Labour share is perhaps not surprising given the traumatic events of the week but the big surprise, surely, is that the internet pollster does not seem to have picked up the big Lib Dem increases seen in the recent ICM and MORI surveys.

    Something is wrong somewhere when within the space of a few days YouGov is showing a Lib Dem figure which is just three-quarters of that found by ICM.

The explanation lies with the weightings the two pollsters use. YouGov seeks to create a sample where 13.9% of respondents have previously identified themselves as party supporters. ICM are currently working on a past vote recall proportion of about 21% for the party. Other findings in the poll include:-

  • Tony Blairdoing well or badly” 33-64%
  • David Cameron doing well or badly” 51-31
  • Ming Campbell doing well or badly” 31-32
  • Gordon Brown doing well or badly” 48-44
  • Patricia Hewitt should she be sacked? 51-39
  • Charles Clarke should he be sacked? 53-21
  • John Prescott should he be sacked? 49-31
  • Blair-Brown Should the PM step down in favour of the Chancellor? 39-39
  • So in spite of all the troubles those surveyed were divided equally on whether Brown should replace Blair now. David Cameron maintains a healthy approval rating margin of 20%. Interestingly even Labour voters in the survey do not give the Tory leader a negative rating dividing 41-41.

    What must be worrying for the Gordon Brown camp is the decline in support for the Chancellor. Those surveyed were divided equally on whether there should be an immediate change-over with Labour supporters supporting Blair by 61-28. Brown’s “doing well/badly” positive margin of 4% compares with the 43% that he had exactly a year ago – a dramatic fall.

    If the Brown figures are reinforced by other pollsters it might just take the pressure off Blair should Thursday’s local election results be bad for Labour.

    The price on Tony Blair still being there at the end of next year is 2.85/1. This and other political markets including Thursday’s local elections can be found here.


    Mike Smithson






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