Tories still at 41% with Mori
June 19th, 2006
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Labour recover to 34% but the Lib Dems still stuck on 18%
A day and a half after the Observer published outline details of this month’s Mori poll survey the pollster has now published full information on its site.
So instead of the bare “Tories are 7% ahead” that the Observer reported we now have the full figures which are with comparisons on the pollster’s last survey at the end of May are:- CON 41% (nc): LAB 34%(+3): LD 18% (nc).
The main change has been a big reduction in the “others” total which has given Labour a 3% boost. The other numbers stay the same. The face-to-face survey ran from June 8-12 so it started on the same day that the Lib Dems launched their new tax plan.
Like all Mori surveys the headline figures relate only to those saying they are certain to vote. Taking the whole sample Labour has a one point lead. The pollster uses this rigid turnout filter but does not use past vote weighting - a measure adopted by most other firms to ensure they have a politically representative sample.
It will be interesting to see how Mori compares with the Guardian ICM poll for June which should be out this week or next. ICM has pioneered past vote weighting and tends to be much less volatile than Mori.
What I cannot undersand is why the Observer, which commissioned Mori, should have failed to put even the most basic information in their story yesterday. Pathetic.
Mike Smithson
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Is the implication of this that these figures do or do not reflect the Lib Dem policy announcements?
Also, although in common with most posters I would dismiss the overall importance of MORI polling, nevertheless keeping our heads above 40% consecutively is quite nice and proves that, from a MORI technique at least, the last figure was not quite the outlier than it was seen at the time.
MORI’s techniques are flawed, I agree. As well as the shortcomings pointed out in the lead article, there is also the fact that there is no weighting to the figures apart from ‘certain to vote’
How many of this group actually DO vote? How many of the ‘probanly wills’ vote? How many of the ‘Maybes’ etcetera.
As a further point, consider that if it looks like the Conservative will win the next GE, many of the ‘maybe’ Labour voters (and LibDems too) will be frightened into actually turning out to vote.
In summary, MORI is really Mistake-Oriented, Results Inaccurate.
They probably didnt want to show off how well the tories were doing!
3 - Surely those arguments apply to all opinion pollsters?
5. To an extent, yes, you are absolutely right. MORI seem to be just the worse offenders, that’s all. We’ve had thread-after-thread on this. What us oiks post is neither here nor there, but I am surprised that MORI have not modified their techniques in light of Mike’s comments at least. As webmaster of this site he (should) have some influence. (Well, I’d want to hear from interested parties and experts if I were running MORI, anyway!)
To be fair to Mori it did pretty well in its final poll before last year’s General Election. It had CON 33 (correct): LD 23 (correct) and LAB 38 (+1.8).
Does anyone know the sample size,so I can weight it with the other polls on electoral calculus?
9. 1,975 adults.
Cheers,Andrea,lightening calcualtion coming up!
10. Patrick, the All ‘absolutely certain to vote’ are just 1,139 though
O.K,using the whole 1975 sample( we just cannot guess how many of the would-be-abstainers would turn out),I have obtained the following average of this poll with the existing calculus:
Conservative Party 39.12%
Labour Party 32.85%
Libera Democrats 17.77%
Others 9.39%
Baxter gives 311 Tories,284 Labour,20 Lib Dems,so if we (more or less) accept Baxter’s figures of 16 more Tories after the Boundary Comission,and 9 less Labour,this gives 327 Conservatives- in a 650 seat chamber(which it will be),an overall majority of 4
But we know Baxter is faulty both in his method of calculation of swing effect and the 16 extra T
14 Mark,I have had difficulty accessing the other models which analyse the Boundary Review; could you possibly put their projections up,please?
Oops …. and his figure of 16 extra Tories is too high for the effect of Boundary changes .
O/T Bromley seems to be warming up with Conservatives threatening UKIP with legal action of their posters/billboards .
Patrick , I have put them up on here before but will dig them out and do so again .
Mark,thanks,I really apprciate that!!
13 And since we have had many discussions on this site which point out just how tenacious the LibDems are at defending seats that they hold, you can conclude from Baxter that actually a hung parliament is the most likely outcome. (With the Conservatives probably the biggest party). A Labour Party dream come true. They know they must lose sometime - what better than to do so in this manner i.e. a weak Tory minority government.
19,I fully accept bald uniform figures are not appropriate for the vagaries of a 650 seat election held under FPTP (Sorry to use acronyms,but I’m tired!:wink:)
Here we are
Baxter CON 214 LAB 350 LIB DEM 59 OTHERS 27
Wells CON 212 LAB 346 LIB DEM 63 OTHERS 29
Baston CON 205 LAB 350 LIB DEM 65 OTHERS 30
Mike, I asked five people today if they would rather have Chris Bryant as PM than Mr Blair. Since they all said yes, can I publish this as 100% of voters think Blair should go? And at the same time can I apply for a job at Mori?
In all seriousness, I think I’ll wait for some substantive figures from someone trustworthy before I break out the champagne!
Thanks,Mark Senior,if we meet at a Political Betting gathering in London,I’ll buy you a pint
Been out in Bromley today, and I was impressed. The Lib Dems have a bizarre leaflet which is more like a cheap womens magazine, nice idea though, might have to nick that one! However I felt using Princess Diana was a bit of a desperate move. She has been dead nine years! UKIP seem to be aiming their campaign at picking up Labour voters, which has always been my suspicion - that UKIP don’t drain that much Tory support, mostly from Labour. Also, I was always taught not to name your opponent. The Lib Dems literature is littered with articles about Bob Neill.
All in all, the parties are going through the motions, and I hardly saw any Labour activity at all. But the Conservative team seem to be really well organised, raring to go, and the candidate is a terrific chap. I’d say 55% at the moment, but I wait and see. Our biggest problem will be complacency from our voters.
22. Councillor BGen, have you managed to find 5 people in Suffolk who knows who Rev YFronts is? Impressive….his popularity is really increasing
24 Any comment on the UKIP billboard/poster legal action threat , Ben .
24.”Also, I was always taught not to name your opponent. The Lib Dems literature is littered with articles about Bob Neill”
If the candidate is a weak point of your opponent, it could be named. Some successful LD campaigns had the opponent named in their literature
Totally off topic…
my sources tell me that it is looking increasingly likely that there will a fresh election in the Ukraine, following the inability to cobble together a coalition after the recent inconclusive poll.
24. If Neill was an asset for the Tories, then he certainly wouldn’t be mentioned in LibDem leaflets. The fact he’s all over them should give you some idea of his local popularity.
29 - Or more likely the usual grubby LibDem by-election tactics.
test
Mike, have you spamtrapped Bromely Lib Dems?
32 SEoA. Hopefully !!
Fascinating in your earlier article about Brown never debating in public.
I laid Brown way back when the market gave him an 80% chance, simply on the basis that an individual winning something an unknown number of years ahead is never that certain. That article is really convincing that if there’s a contest Brown’s chances are no better than, say, evens. However I think someone said it takes 70-odd Labour MPs to nominate a candidate (20% of the PLP is it?) and that could be a considerable barrier. Still a contest has got to be odds-on.
Did anyone hear Blair pretending to understand football on Radio 5 today? It was funny. Someone had obviously given him a briefing: who Rooney plays for etc. He had this opinion that it’s really hard to decide between two world-class attacking midfielders Lampard and Gerrard. Surely that was a Campbell briefing, a way to reach a different audience with no chance of any difficult questions being asked.
26. No comment Mark. I did see two UKIP posters in gardens in what appeared to be a council estate. But I didn’t pay any attention to them so I don’t know why there might be a problem. Purple makes me feel almost as ill as yellow/orange does.
25. Andrea, to be fair, I did have to explain, and one person thought he was I meant Chris Tarrant.
27/29 But I don’t hear that he is a weak point. Also ‘The Tory candidate’ seems to do quite well. I certainly wouldn’t put pictures and articles in my literature - four articles about my opponent? In an eight page leaflet?
30. I’m not sure it’s grubby, just bizarre. Long may they keep up pointing out that Bob has already been elected by the voters on to the GLA and also has history with the MPA. If they want to keep pointing out his experience then who are we to argue. Just a shame they have such little confidence in their own candidate.
31. Matebeater you appear to be working. I prefer Carlsberg Export (just don’t tell the Danes)
Guardian/ICM POLL - Tories 37%.Lab 32%.Ldems 21% from teletext
35 Cllr Ben: What did you tell your mates about Bryant that made them prefer him to Tony Blair?
36 - Lab-2,Lib Dems +1
Guardian/ICM Poll :
Lab 32% -2% .. Con 37% -1% .. Lib Dem 21% +1% .. Others 10% +2%.
35 Ben , the story is here http://www.ukipbromley.com/main.htm , agree the colours are revolting .
Jack - beaten to the draw by Vino! You’ll have to grow your moustache zapatta style in penance …
What’s the “official” view on ICM?
39 Wonder if the Conservatives will rush to put these figures into Baxter ?
37 Anna, as little as possible. The point I was trying to make was that for a lot of people I know it has become ‘anyone but Blair’ and that could be very worrying for Labour. If they leave this dead in the water Government clinging on too long, there won’t be a period of renewal for Gordon, merely an expression that Labour have been around too long and it’s time for a change.
42 - Mark, ever helpful, me
Con 277
Lab 284
LD 52
40. OK thanks Mark. Having read them I can understand why we complained. Utter rubbish. What is the allegation about use of HoC resources?
Given that the Government today finally got some good news on Iraq how do people think this might play out with the LD vote? As we slowly draw back our troops…?
The ICM poll is bad news for the Government, down again. But not brilliant for us. I wonder how well the Bromley Lib Dems will be able to explain Ming’s tax bombshell to the voters of Bickley Ward in Bromley and Chislehurst? From what I could see most houses there look like they are about 1-5 million quid, so that would probably put the owners in the wealthy bracket Ming wants to hit.
Are there any other figures from ICM? Did they ask any leader questions? Or perhaps Deputy Leader?
41 - us lads north of the Trent are pretty quick on the draw! off topic ,did something yesterday which I’ve never done before - held and fired a shotgun - target was clay pigeons.
39/44 Mark/Tabman, I thought PB regulars were of the opinion that Baxter was as flawed as Mori?
- 44 and Wells is similar
CON 273
LAB 290
LIB 55
47 Baxter is a flawed, but quite fun toy, especially since for most of this year the Lib Dems were getting wiped out when you put in the opinion poll figures…
47 Ben , 1 or 2 Conservative posters on here think the sun shines out out of Baxter’s rear end when it indicates a Tory majority lol . Seriously though the Wells swing calculator is more psephologically accurate .
46 - Vino , ehat do clay pigeons taste like ?
51 Mark. Not as good as real pigeons …. Game pie, a pint of Ruddles and a wee nippy sweetie chaser .. Yum Yum !!
44 Tabman. You should be wetting your shreddies on those figures.
52 Mark - don’t know - never hit one!
53 Vino.
52 - Jack W - Okay,I’ll fall for it - whats a “wee nippy sweetie chaser”
55 Vino. Whisky of course ….. preferably single malt !!
“Times were ‘ard up ‘ere in North Nottingham … even the clay pigeons were scrawny, undernourished looking specimens…”
52 - Jack, consider them duly dampened …
Things look like getting better for the Rushcliffe Constituency. My sister (a Lib Dem switcher from Labour, to my disgust) is leaving to move to Cheshire. On that news, good ole Ken will be buying his chinese in peace from now on!
46. I was hoping Vino was getting in some target practice to help me rid the world of Lib Dems, but it seems he can’t hit a barn door, so…
56 - Jack W - difference with us working class lads is we wus brought up to respect quantity not quality hence 15 pints of Shippos is not a problam but whisky was something only toffs drank!!!
50. Some of my more aggresive colleagues would say the sun shines from Mori when it gives us regular poll leads Mark, so it really doesn’t surprise me that they love Baxter when it suits them.
49. Anna, we all love pretending the Lib Dems will collapse on their own, but we all know they need to be prised away like barnacles.
58 - Cllr Ben Redsell (Conservative) - only just missed it even when I was inside it! - second lesson next Sunday.
57 Tabman. Revolting imagery !!
58 Cllr Ben. Talking of not hitting a “barn door” what price an Owen hat-trick against Sweden …… what’s that about Elvis on the Moon !!
Sorry to dampen Jacobite spirits but when given proper service, Michael will score more often than Sven. But we need to drop Crouch to stop the team from lobbing up long balls and actually pass through the team, taking control of the game properly. And I wouldn’t rule out Michael for lots of goals in the later rounds. But my tip would be for that Spanish striker to get the Golden Boot.
59 Tabman. Far too few of us “toffs” left in Scotland, but I assure you the working men’s clubs in Scotland are awash with empty dram glasses !
Is Elvis on the moon Jack? Are you sure? How much whiskey did you say you’d drunk tonight?
O/T it seems that Newham Conservatives supported the weekend protest march against the police anti-terror raid in Forest Gate
65 - Jack W doesn’t drink “whiskey” - he drinks whisky.important difference.
Goodbye Blackpool!
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-2233428,00.html
(not surprised considering there were many critics about the conference being hosted there)
63 Cllr Ben. I’ve had £50 EW on Spain, that was looking dodgy earlier this evening, but it’s difficult to pick a winner even now. Perhaps we need to find the “Euro04/Greece” of this tournament ?? ……… Ecuador or the Czech Rep ??
67. Excuse my ignorant spelling error. Of course he does. I would never expect to see him drinking anything from any other country, especially if it is grain whiskey rather than a nice single malt whisky.
66. Mark, from “This is Local London” website (link blocked by spam filter…if you want I can send it by email):
Several Muslim organisations, including the Muslim Association of Britain, the Islamic Human Rights Commission and Hizb ut-Tahrir, support the campaign. The Newham Conservatives and the Respect Party will also join, along with Stop Political Terror.
70 Cllr Ben. Forgiven … just.
71 I could not post the link either Andrea .
Ben - where in Rushcliffe is your sister?
68. The thinking is that Manchester is a metaphor for new Labour. How harsh a criticism of Manchester can you get!
69. England of course. BUT I’d never expect a Jacobite to agree! What about Holland or Mexico?
75 - Manchester is a metaphor for the Liberal Resurgence - was great, declined, and has risen again! (And heavily shaped by it in its original form)
I very much doubt that Jack W drinks whiskey, it’s much more likely to be whisky. Mind you, I like both Irish whiskey and Scotch whisky myself, or Jack Daniels for that matter - let’s face it, there isn’t much in the way of alcohol I won’t drink, although I have never tasted any of the alcopop things that youngsters are alleged to drink now. As I am a fair way past fifty, that is probably to be expected.
A nippy sweetie can also be a sharp-tongued woman. It was originally a sharp-tasting boiled sweet, but now it is often used for whisky. Myself, I have never understood how the English can take whisky with soda or ginger ale. I can’t understand how they can take anything other than salt with porridge. There must be something wrong with them.
74. She lives in Lady Bay. She’s been a Labour voter since 18, but feels betrayed over the NHS. She worked as a nurse for 15 years before going to University. Now she’s a PhD. And looking for a Professorship if you know of one going!
75 Cllr Ben. Can’t get a decent price on England and the Dutch defence leaks like a dike ! Not sure about Mexico, they usually don’t travel well.
76. Liberal Resurgence? Are you betting on PM Ming then? Because I’ll give you odds if you are. I’ll bite your bl**dy hand off!
A fascinating report here http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/246
confirming that poor old Grandad Ming is really not doing all that well; that Cameron is riding high; and that Labour are pretty unpopular all round.
I am sure that ColinW, Sage and the other Cowley St stooges will find some ray of sunshine in there but I think even they will find it hard to predict Cameron’s doom and Ming’s triumph! lol
80. No, I think he’s talking about getting Manchester Central!
79. Typical Scot, always worried about the price! You can’t get a decent price because we’re going to win! And won’t you hate that! Forty more years of ‘We won the World Cup’
78 - round the corner from me - I’m just the other side of Radcliffe Road. And my wife is a professor …
82. That would be a seat with a 58.1% Labour vote? OK the LDs did well to in second, with a 9.8% swing, but resurgence? They probably think they’ll take Bromley on that basis!
81 - spot on Rik. You’re right not to be worried.
84. It’s a small world Tabman. Sis is into phsychobabble. And no I don’t mean your manifesto. She does Research Psychology. At Nottingham Uni.
83 Cllr Ben. The 66 song can be a little wearing !!
Ye gods isn’t holding the Rugby World Cup enough !! …… I wouldn’t mind England winning the footie, save another 40 years of “hurt” that would follow !!
and then there’s the prospect of England hosting the bloody thing in 2018 !!!!!!!!
80 - note I said Liberal, not Liberal Democrat. Regardless of what form it eventually takes, the Liberal view of the world is winning the argument.
82. Sorry, Councillor Ben, I meant Manchester Gorton (Gerald Kaufam’s seat)
88. And the Ashes. Don’t forget the Ashes. What price do you think you could get on 2018. Actually don’t bother, because after we’ve held London 2012, built by Multiplex, we won’t ever get another sporting occasion.
84 - is she a member? If not, I’ll be round with the appropriate form
My Mrs is at the Uni.
91 Cllr Ben. I understand Blatter favours an England bid, so the odds will be poor.
90. Even so, another Labour held seat with over 50% of the vote. Just strikes me that they are grasping at straws. Ming isn’t Charlie, and the Iraq thing will wear thin by 2009 when many of our troops will be home.
94. Councillor Ben, that seat has been mentioned some times here. It’s a student seat too.
I think it’ll depended on various factors: if Kaufman will stand down and Labour and LD situation in 2009.
92. I’m not sure if she actually votes LD or just tells me that to piss me off. So I’d hold off on the membership form. Or I’ll have to fight her for custody of my nephew on grounds of mental illness of a parent!
93. Maybe now, but he hasn’t seen our wonderful builders in action yet. Nor has the FA for that matter. Or anyone in Wembley.
On that note, I bid you all good night, as I have lots of things to do tomorrow, and I’m knackered from delivering all day in Bromley.
81. Sad Rik W…… Ever the optimist. I’d say it looks more like flatlining at best. Now even you know in your black Tory heart that your poll ratings are JUST NOT GOOD ENOUGH, & like England, you flatter to deceive. When you come up against real opposition we’ll see…..
And in this age of cosmetic surgery, can someone tell me why Ben Abbotts wasn’t sent for upper lid blepharoplasty before his election photos were done? For a 29 year-old that hooding is extreme.
98. He actually improved in Bromley website photo gallery. In last year GE photos he looked worse (with even bigger bags under his eyes)
Ben - you seem remarkably sure about our troops. Events, dear boy, events … besides Dubya will be sabre-rattling in other parts by then.
Lady Bay elects a Green.
It would only cost him £2-3K in Harley Street & can be done under a local.
Jack @ 69: that bet on Spain may prove a shrewd one, they were my pick before the tournament began, and I’m sticking with them.
100 - Tabman - yes an unusual result - the elected Green had a strong personal vote
Simon Ronald ANTHONY Green Party 486
Susan Elizabeth BLOUNT - Elected Green Party 781
Susan Mary READ Rushcliffe Conservative 488
Michael John SHERISTON Rushcliffe Conservative 356
Susan Kathryn TIPLADY - Elected The Labour Party Candidate 758
Keith WRIGHT The Labour Party Candidate 703
Interesting Polling Report analysis, not all in one direction (Gordon will be pleased with his rating progress) - thanks for pointing it out, Rik. The ICM poll looks right to me: the position seems to me to have stabilised at a moderate Tory lead, based to a significant extent on differential turnout (ICM weights proportionately for certainty to vote, it just doesn’t exclude the non-certain ones altogether). Plenty to play for. But turnout should help the Tories in Bromley (hey, they might even save their deposit in Blaenau Gwent
)
Maybe I missed it Mike, but there doesn’t seem to be much anxiety from the political parties about our team’s performance in the World Cup. Those with long memories will confirm that the unexpected elimination of England in the Mexico 1970’s World Cup quarter finals cost Harold Wilson’s Government the election that followed shortly after.
Pity that ICM’s figures aren’t slightly closer to Mori’s, but this is probably a more accurate read of the current political situation. Conservatives still polling well above our GE result and maintaining a stable lead, Labour are on a 20 year low (according to the Guardian) and the Lib Dems are down on last May. Further to go, but things are trending in the right direction.
45. Cllr Ben “…Bickley Ward in Bromley and Chislehurst? From what I could see most houses there look like they are about 1-5 million quid”
I don’t think you would last long as an estate agent in Bickley. The average house price there is more like £400k-£500k. The few £1m+ houses are in Chislehurst, Keston and the roads around Sundridge Park golf club.
On a topical note, a number of ex-professional footballers and managers live in B&C, including one who had an eventful 2002 World Cup.
On the ICM poll, that is the largest Conservative lead over Labour with ICM since August 1992.
Good poll for the Libdems who are clearly now on the up as long as long as they keep Ming as Leader till the election. Our plan to keep the Libdems in the 19 to 21% box rather than the 16-18% is working a treat.
In reply to 14:-
The Liberals use standard designs throughout the whole of the UK for leaflets etc. I think that the EARS system they use also has some basic leaflet facility that knocks out the stand stuff you see.
Take a look at this for the whole array of leaflets etc:-
http://by-elections.co.uk/hartlepool/Lib_Dem.html
One thing that can be used against the Liberals is that they are predictable, they do the same thing again and again. Planning a campaign against them should take this into account.
Matt.
103 - Vino, you’d love Lady Bay …
I’ve corresponded with Sue Blount on a couple of issues - she seems a decent sort.
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