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Who’ll win the by-election spinning war?

June 29th, 2006

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    Which party’s done best in “expectation management”?

So the polls are about to close, the counts will soon be starting and most normal people will be off to bed without any thought about the events during the day in Gwent and South East London.

Now the big question is how the electoral health of the parties will look after the spinners have done their “explaining” and the radio and TV news teams have decided how to present what’s happened. This is my summary.

Bad news for Labour will be failing to win back the Westminster seat in Blaneau Gwent. After huge effort and probably outspending their opponents many times over Labour desperately need a result.

Bad news for the Tories will be anything less than an emphatic victory in Bromley. A margin of 10% over whoever is in second place is needed at the minimum.

Bad news for the Lib Dems will be if the Tories are more than ten points ahead. They are the by-election Kings and there’s an expectation of exceptional performances. With significant a Labour vote there for the squeezing they should be biting at the Tories’ heels.

Bad news for Labour will be being reduced to a single figure vote share in Bromley. After all they were in second place only fourteen months ago. It will be even worse for Blair’s party if they are reduced to fourth place.

Bad news for UKIP will be not making a significant indent into the main three parties. They’ve had the Heffer-effect and one of their best known and most effective campaigners as candidate. UKIP needs a good result.

Bad news for me will be if the Lib Dems win in Bromley because I’ve got no money on.

Mike Smithson






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