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Communicate Research boost for Brown

December 28th, 2006

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    But why no voting intention figures?

The December poll from Communicate Research is out this morning in the Independent but the online edition, at least, does not appear to feature voting intention figures. These were clearly asked because breakdowns of how supporters of different parties answered some of the questions are included in the story. Maybe that detail will come tomorrow.

Andrew Grice, the paper’s political editor, puts the focus on the “who would make the best PM” question where Brown was rated at 39% while Cameron scored 36%. Lib Dems divided by 37-31% on this question while those saying they intended to vote Green went for Cameron by 40-30%.

    But is Grice correct to state in his introduction that that the answer to the “best PM” question means that people “prefer” the Chancellor as their next PM? That question was not asked. Alastair Campbell could rate Manchester United as the “best football team” but still say he prefers Burnley.

The finding on “best PM” is consistent with other surveys. YouGov last week reported a 28-27 Cameron-Brown split on the issue while ICM had Brown had Brown 5% ahead on the same question at the end of November.

Clearly this is an area where the Chancellor is seen positively – the challenge for Labour is to convert that into a desire to vote for the party. For the former poll had voters wanting a Cameron-led Tory Government over a Brown-led Labour by a 13 point margin while the latter reported a 9% overall Tory lead.

The poll also found that two thirds of people think Gordon “grumpy”, against only 18 per cent who think the same of the Tory leader.

As we discussed in November CR does not use past vote weighting to ensure a politically balnced sample and their methodology is “currently under review”.

Hopefully we will be able to get the voting intention figures either tomorrow or when CR publishes the detailed data.

Mike Smithson






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