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Predicting 2007: The Lib Dems

December 30th, 2006

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    Thankfully for Lembit not many LDs read the Daily Mail

There is absolutely no doubt about which Lib Dem is going to account for the most column inches during the 2007. For you cannot go round, as the Mail reported, telling complete strangers that they “have the best breasts in Wales” and expect to survive as party shadow spokesman on the Principality.

    The tabloids are on to Lembit now and surely the only question is how long will it be before Ming has to sack him?

This is just one of the points for the 2007 Prediction Competition that will be published tomorrow – the thread where entries should be posted. The purpose of this is to provide a discussion forum for some of the issues that will be covered.

Lembit apart, the Lib Dems have had an interesting 2006 – from the depths in late January when poll ratings slipped to 13% to the highs only a few weeks later when they won the Dunfermline by-election from Labour in the seat next door to where Gordon Brown lives.

Will there be a by-election opportunity for the party in 2007. That we do not know but after Bromley in the summer then anything might be possible and you would not rule them out of winning virtually anywhere.

  • But that depends on something happening to a sitting MP and so far in the 20 months of this parliament we have had five. So if there are by-elections during 2007 will the Lib Dems winning form continue? This is hard to guess but what percentage of 2007 by-elections in GB will the LDs win?
  • The big scheduled elections of 2007 will be in May when all the seats in the Scottish and Welsh parliaments will be up for grabs. What will the net gains/losses be for the party in the elections for the Scottish and Welsh Parliaments?
  • On that day as well there will be local council elections in many part of England. What will the Lib Dems net gain/losses be in the local elections of 2007?
  • The party ends 2006 with most of the pollsters showing that its national vote share is on the decline. Will this trend continue or will there be a reversal? What will be the lowest and highest shares that the Lib Dems will record in an ICM poll during 2007?
  • Having got rid of one leader during 2006 and replaced him with Ming Campbell it might be premature to start speculating about his future. But will Ming last the year? For how many weeks during 2007 will Ming remain leader and who will be in the job on Christmas Day 2007?
  • This thread is for discussion only – the questions will be published tomorrow.

    Mike Smithson






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