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Month: February 2007

Gordon’s leadership price continues to ease

Gordon’s leadership price continues to ease

Could Labour’s “hand-over” not be the foregone conclusion that it appeared? The chart shows the changing price on Gordon Brown for the Labour leadership over the past seven days. Three things have influenced the markets; the ICM poll a week ago showing how Brown’s Labour 13% behind; the Communicate Research poll yesterday; and the move by Clarke and Milburn to open up a debate within the party. The danger for Brown backers is that media pressure combined with concern over…

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Who does Gordon think he is – Michael Howard?

Who does Gordon think he is – Michael Howard?

Will the “Britishness” thing help or hinder Brown’s leadership bid? Watching Gordon Brown launch the latest stage of his of his Britishness agenda on the bulletins last night I could not help but thinking that he is making precisely the same mistakes that Michael Howard made in the run up to the 2005 General Election. Then it will be recalled that the Tory leader stepped up the rhetoric and dog whistles against groups like immigrants and travellers in an effort…

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PBC Party: Change the Date! (And the location)

PBC Party: Change the Date! (And the location)

Political Betting Book Launch Party Tuesday 17th April – 3pm to 7pm National Liberal Club, Whitehall Place SW1 OK, we stuffed up. Apparently the House of Commons won’t allow commercial ventures in its hallowed halls – and so launching a book on gambling is right out! So we have decamped to the National Liberal Club. Liberals, it seems, are a lot less fussy. We’ve had to put the date back a day, so please revisit your diaries. I will email…

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PBC outpoints the Brandindex market yet again

PBC outpoints the Brandindex market yet again

Are IG On The Run? When IG sportingly created a Politicians’ Popularity market, it doubtless expected to make a little profit from its collaboration with YouGov. The trading is understandably light and one suspects that most of the punting is coming from PB regulars. If so, one has to wonder if IG is making any money at all. This is the fifth week of competition and our fourth success. The other week was a draw. Last week’s main recommendation to…

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Is your MP on the “seats changing hands” list?

Is your MP on the “seats changing hands” list?

Tory lead up to 11% with Communicate Research Reproduced above is a snap-shot of the top of the page when you put the latest poll numbers into Martin Baxter’s seat calculator on his excellent Political Calculus site which many MPs in marginal seats are said to be visiting a lot at the moment. For the February poll in the Independent from Communicate Research reports a big swing to the Tories. These are the figures compared with the January survey CON…

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Polling analysis: Why don’t Labour voters like Brown?

Polling analysis: Why don’t Labour voters like Brown?

Examining the details from last week’s ICM and YouGov polls We have had to wait nearly a week for this but these are the details from the poll that has been the talk of Westminster and which has promoted a big change in the Brown price in the Labour leadership betting market. The ICM full data is from the survey last Tuesday that showed Labour 13% behind if Gordon Brown is named as leader against Cameron’s Tories and Ming’s Lib…

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Is this the man to take on Gordon, Dave & Ming?

Is this the man to take on Gordon, Dave & Ming?

What about the minister who had the guts to resign over Iraq? After a weekend which has seen repeated media calls for Brown to face a proper challenge for the leadership his price has eased further on the betting markets. Just a week ago a £100 winning Brown bet would have produced a profit of £19 – today such a wager offers £27. But the big question that those betting against the Chancellor have to ask is – if not…

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Hold the date – Monday April 16th

Hold the date – Monday April 16th

Political Betting Book Launch Party Monday 16th April – 4pm to 6pm The Strangers Restaurant, House of Commons And afterwards in St Stephens Tavern, Westminster In partnership with Politico’s Book Shop, Politicalbetting.com is happy to announce the date and venue, as above, of its annual party which this year will be combined with the launch of Mike’s book, The Political Punter, which is being published by Harriman House. The venue is made possible by the sponsorship of our MP contributors,…

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