Is this the man to take on Gordon, Dave & Ming?
February 26th, 2007
What about the minister who had the guts to resign over Iraq?
After a weekend which has seen repeated media calls for Brown to face a proper challenge for the leadership his price has eased further on the betting markets. Just a week ago a £100 winning Brown bet would have produced a profit of £19 - today such a wager offers £27.
But the big question that those betting against the Chancellor have to ask is - if not Gordon then who? We have seen one potential challenger after another fall by the wayside and it is hard to make a case for anybody within the cabinet. What about looking wider afield?
Four years ago three senior ministers resigned over Iraq: one, Robin Cook is sadly no longer with us; the second Claire Short is no longer with the Labour party; while the third, John Denham, remains as a Labour MP and has been a regular critic of the Blair administration as chair of the Home Affairs committee.
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Given the way that Iraq and its aftermath continue to overshadow Labour could Denham - who had the courage of his convictions in 2003 - be the man who could mount a plausible challenge?
For as well as his stand on Iraq Denham is one of the dwindling band of Labour MPs to represent a seat in southern England - Southampton Itchen which he took off the Tories at the 1992 general election.
One person who has been talking up Denham’s strengths is the influential Labour blogger, Paul Linford. Last week he noted “Denham is a sensible leftie who in most respects holds perfectly mainstream Labour Party views, notably on the importance of tackling inequality. He also, of course, has relevant recent high-level ministerial experience as a minister in the Home Office. John Denham is a man of high principle who in my opinion would make an admirable Prime Minister.”
This BBC interview from last September shows what an effective communicator he is. I think he is quite impressive with an approach that is very much in tune with the moment.
What strikes me is that a contender who had resigned his post over Iraq is in a completely different category from almost anybody else. If the party wants to draw a line under that unhappy episode then choosing someone who took such a stand is the way to do it.
A Denham victory would leave David Cameron as the only one of the three main party leaders to have voted for the war and help Labour counter the Lib Dem’s USP on the issue.
The more I have thought about it the more logical a Denham bid appears and over the weekend I did put £6 on Denham at average odds of more than 320/1.There’s been no hint from Denham that he is even interested and I am still maintaining my betting position on Gordon. But things can happen.
Mike Smithson
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OT — Al Gore has won the Oscar.
It is hard to see how Denham can stand, even if there were any sign he wants to. McDonnell and Straw (probably both) would need to withdraw first so their supporters can nominate Denham.
no he won’t and doesn’t really stand a chance, but my god if robin cook was still alive he would have a real oppurtunity
O/T but Australia’s answer to Kirsty Wark, Maxine McKew, who has left the ABC and is working as a Labor adviser, has announced she will be running against John Howard in his now-marginal seat of Bennelong, in northern Sydney:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21286619-601,00.html
Mike, that would be an interesting betting market for you Poms (presumably with Centrebet) if you lot are interested in dabbling in our election later this year! My guess is not that she is aiming for winning the seat in the election, but to position herself in the event that Labor wins the election, and Howard resigns, in which case she would be the favourite to take the seat in a by-election.
Watch this space!
A well-written argument against any Conservative complacency by Tim Hames in the Times
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/tim_hames/article1437675.ece
I don’t agree with it, but well worth a read. It is also good for us Tories not to get too carried away with our progress and victories.
When I speak to people outside of political activism a number say something along the lines of ‘you need someone completely new and fresh who hasn’t been associated with New Labour and Iraq. Yet it’s difficult for Labour to elect someone fresh and distinct from the Blair/Brown years while in Government since essentially the party would be choosing someone who wasn’t deemed worthy of being in the Cabinet by the current PM. The only plausible reason I can think to explain why to choose someone who isn’t in the cabinet to be the next PM is either they are well known and have a record outside of the cabinet (for example a Mayor of London type figure). The alternative explanation is that they had resigned over an issue of principle. Step forward John Denham.
The current polling isn’t great for Brown, but there doesn’t seem to be much public warmth for other candidates like Reid or Miliband. What if those unconvinced about Brown’s chances of beating Cameron realised that we would need a complete break? On most issues Denham is very moderate, yet he would have respect from the movement as a whole for his dignified resignation over Iraq. While Miliband has a lot to lose by standing, expectations of a Denham bid would be lower. I think a Denham leadership bid is unlikely, but not inconceivable.
Realistically, Labour (and this website) should stop agitating about a Stop Brown candidate. His great move has been to see that there are none.
Your only hope as a party is to get Brown in and then improve his image. That’s realpolitik. A lot less tsuris if you recognised that.
I saw him on TV the other day and I’m afraid his lower lip did that revolting thing where he is like a toad about to swallow a fly, which always makes me think of him as like Mr. Collins in Pride & Prejudice.
Still, the Conservatives know him to be a formidable operator and we anticipate a bounce (by “we” I mean the party; personally, I am 50-50 bounce/trounce. My head and brains say bounce, but my gut isn’t so sure).
Why should this website stop agitating about a stop Brown candidate, Commentator? We’d all like to see a more interesting betting market - it is dull, dull, dull at the moment. In fact it would be nice to see some alternative markets such as “will they be on the ballot paper?”
2 - not sure Straw would like anyone (especially Brown) to think he was contemplating the top job!
[2] Well, if neither McDonnell nor Straw can get the necessary MP nominations, and Brown has let it be known that he doesn’t want a coronation, they could both withdraw in favour of a compromise candidate, i.e. Denham. That’s a lot of ifs, though.
[7] Yes, Commentator, we all knew Tories’ brains aren’t found inside their heads, but it’s always good to have it from the horse’s mouth
8 I just think it is a little dull as everybody involved with politics knows it’s not going to happen.
Tim Hames article, pro-Labour and anti-Tory as it was, made IMO for more interesting discussion including from a betting point of view. Surely the real betting market is on govt, largest party, etc. Is there an over/under on seat numbers, spread-betting, like the US has on American football? But as everybody knows I do not gamble except on investments, so will bow to the punters on that one.
7. heh.
I mean 10. Another mug of tea needed.
re 11. Commentator - by far and away the most important issue in UK politics and political betting at the moment is the Labour succession. Yes the next general election is interesting and we discuss it a lot but there’s not a lot of betting on it.
The fact is that there has been a huge shift of betting sentiment away from Gordon. On a political betting website a price move from 0.19/1 to 0.27/1 is a mega move. Yet in spite of this there is no real conviction behind any other contender. I raise John Denham and smart Labour observers like HenryG agree that he is a possibility, however remote.
You have remember, as well, that I seek to find new and interesting things to talk about at least once a day 7 days a week. Not all the articles are ones that you might want to read.
Much as I’d like to see it, I don’t think it’s likely. Long ago, he was considered a live outsider and I actually had a small bet on him but if I recall correctly, he openly stated that he would not be standing. He doesn’t appear to be making any of the necessary moves. I think he would have done by now if he had any intention at all.
I’ve put down a couple of quid at 270/1, just in case, but I’m afraid the boring truth is that it’s Gordon, whether you like it or not.
And talking of Gordon, I have consulted every conceivable source, from Roger to the Oracle at Delphi, and I cannot find any credible explanation for the drift in Gordon’s price. I have reached the conclusion that it is every bit as daft as it looks and if it’s still there in two days time when I get paid, I’ll be lumping on yet again.
11 - The General Election is just too far away - probably - to tie up much money (I know you can cash up if there is a reasonable price move, but it is pretty slow moving).
2. Denham could get 44 MPs to nominate him within a week.
I think Mike does very well in offering us a daily theme to discuss! This one is a non-runner, though, I think. I asked John a while back if he was interested in standing for one of the top jobs (not necessarily as a supporter but just out of interest: for the reasons Mike outlines it’s plausible). He said no.
An update on France might be interesting if Chris in Paris wants to do it? I gather Sego has recovered somewhat?
GB knows one way, and only one way, to operate: the clunking fist. He has undermined, and will continue to undermine, anybody potential competitors in his own party. It is virtually impossible to ‘grow’ as a minister, because GB is too nervous. He likes being surrounded by pygmies, and that looks certain to guarantee he becomes PM.
As already said, were Robin Cook still with us then Brown would be fighting tooth & claw for the top job. But Denham doesn’t seem in the same league, and the fact that we are now having to look outside the current or ex cabinet for an alternative non-lefty candidate shows how desperate we’re getting on this. Can’t see it myself somehow.
Further to 13, it’s an 6% move in a short space of time in a fairly active market. Look at the Betfair bar chart and you’ll see a lot of activity over the past few weeks. People like Mike and me have been buying up the 1.25 plus prices pretty avidly, so much so that in my own case the betting bank is empty. It hasn’t stopped the drift. Somebody out there is laying GB in quite a big way. I don’t know who, or why. All I know is that in similar situations in the past I have always relied on the maxim ‘back form, not rumour’. I’m sticking to my guns.
Hope 1.28 is still there on Wednesday.
By the way, have any other US presidential candidates ever won an Oscar? I’m not up on my film history, so did Reagan ever win any?
16 Henry G - Have sent you an email. Received it?
21 LOL
Even I know that one, tpfkar! No. He was a B Movie actor, I believe.
Mike- if Denham does show an interest you must retain a copy of this lead, print it, frame it and forever gloat (aswell as use your profits wisely).
I still cannot excluse Reid. He is the only frontbencher who has shown the thirst and ambition, and has not cow towed to Brown.
The poll ratings for all candidates reflect the corrosive malaise that is now surrounding the government. It is not helped at all by this interregnum, this period of indicisiveness, or Iraq. Without the May elections (and to avoid the humiliation of a successor at first outing) Blair would have walked.
21- tpfkar- I can safely say no to that one. Bedtime for Bonzo I think was just about the zentih of his career, and then he was out performed by a chimpamzee (parallels to Bush- except in this case Reagan clearly outperformed his “chimp” successor.)
23- sorry Peter- didn’t read your response. The not so great oracle of my brain thinks there is a contest brewing with a genuine contender- thus the easing out.
I think Reid will come forward once Blair sets his departure date- his odds at 20’s look to have some value.
26 That could be it, Tyson, although even that explanation is not entirely convincing. Even if one of the more credible opponents stood, say Reid or Miliband, I would still rate GB’s odds as good value at 1/5.
Nope. It’s a mystery.
I would very much like John Denham to stand for deputy leader. He is not only articulate and principled but his resignation on Iraq would draw a line under the Blair debacle in a way that no other sensible candidate could match.
Mike’s argument that this will make Cameron the only leader to vote for Iraq is a very tempting one. Unfortunately on it’s own it’s not enough to make him a worthy Prime Minister. It is enough though-as Gordons deputy-to give the leadership real credibility and help remove a lot of the negatives that Blair has left behind.
(PS I hope my Oscar tips were noted!)
28 They were noted, Roger, especially by my betting bank.
It has come to my attention that some posters on this site have from time to time mocked your ability as a tipster. Let it never be said that I have ever doubted you. Your brilliant success in forecasting the Oscars is no more than a shining example of the skill and foresight you have always shown in predicting the outcome of major public events. Let those who have cast aspersions on your prowess now crawl forward and beg forgiveness and acknowledge you as one of the greatest soothsayers of all time.
Rogerdamus, we salute you!
Browns odds on Betfair look very suspicious. Has he been off his food, looking a bit lame, coughing in the yard - there must be something going on. Why would anyone offer money that Gordon wont get the top job unless something is wrong.
If it was because of a possible serious challenger emerging there would have been movement amongst the other “possibles” but as that hasn’t happened then whoever is laying Gordon quite rightly recognises that it could be anyones game without Gordon (even possible that TB would be forced to stay on against his will).
The most likely reasons would, I am afraid, be problems with his health or that of his family - I really hope not, but does someone know, or think they know, something?
This clamour to achieve the Deputy Leadership of the Labour Party reminds me of Richard Feynman discussing the properties of Neutrinos. “All you have to imagine something that does practically nothing. You can use your Son-in-Law as a prototype.”
John Denham would be a great result for me. I’ve had £6 at 600/1.
Mike, interesting article. Yes there needs to be someone, and Denham does right now look like the only serious contender.
However has he actually served in the cabinet or only as a minister?
That said Labour do need an alternative to Brown who can make a race. I do hope they don’t get one!
(Well thanks PtP! My rehabilitation has begun!!)
30 Icarus - Don’t imagine I have not speculated on these lines myself. Such thoughts were extinguished by Yokel’s characteristically sensible observation that if anybody had hard information of this kind, the price would have moved a whole lot more and a lot quicker.
34 No problem, Roger my old mate. You get any more lip from cheeky posters, just let me know. I’ll send the boys round.
21. No, but it is not widely known that Churchill won the Nobel Prize for Literature.
Mike, I understand the difficulty in coming up with topics as Nick says, but I just do think that all possible contenders have thought it through and are not prepared to stand. It would take “events dear boy” to change things now.
30. Skeletons ‘in the closet’ another possibility of course.
Good call Mike. John Denham would obviously find it difficult to beat Gordon Brown but he would make the contest very interesting, and he should be able to get the 44 backers necessary. I would certainly vote for him. As Andrew Rawnsley points out in this weekendends Observer, even Gordon Brown should be grateful for a contest (he won’t be but that is another matter!). A coronation would simply feed in to the lack of trust that is out there. A good amicable debate will cut through that and John Denham is the perfect person to play a part in that.
Commentator. I don’t agree. Any potential challenger would be wise to keep their own counsel until the last minute, thus avoiding protracted scrutiny of their candidature and the wrath of Gordon. Look how the chances of Johnson and Reid have ebbed once they were thought likely to stand.
Just because no one has yet declared does not mean no one will stand. And once the race is truly on, who knows?
22. Thanks Peter, just replied.
7. “I saw him on TV the other day and I’m afraid his lower lip did that revolting thing where he is like a toad about to swallow a fly, which always makes me think of him as like Mr. Collins in Pride & Prejudice.”
This is an interesting point made my Commentator. This is Brown’s single most distinctive physical attribute, it is wierd, it is off-putting but it is never discussed despite image mattering so much.
Does anyone know if he have a medical condition? Does he do it in private? Does he refuse to try to stop doing it?
Peter the Punter, your petite partner might perhaps prefer to peruse(OK, I’ll stop the alliteration, and rephrase) - PtP - we were discussing the Thai insurgency, as I recall. Well, your good lady might like to read summat Iwrote on thefirstpost, all about it.
Yertiz:
http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk
Sawadee kap.
Re 29, Peter
And well done Roger for the predictions. I do hope you get your travel arrangements sorted so that you can be there on the 16th.
O/T, but Nick Brown has just put out a leaflet across his constituency (Newcastle East & Wallsend) and the bits of the new Newcastle East constituency outside the existing one. It doesn’t mention Labour or Labour’s candidates for this year’s locals - just NB MP.
Now, with the closeness between NB & GB, does this add weight to the likelihood of a snap general election this year?
43 Thanks SeanT
It’s obviously worse than I thought. Her family is mostly in Bangkok now although naturally she still has strong connections in the South.
I’ll show her the piece and let you know what she says. (If it’s unprintable, I’ll send it by email.)
45. No, more a realisation that the new parliamentary boundaries make Newcastle East a bit more vulnerable.
Re Brown - I’m still backing Q4 , 2008 - Blair wont let GB near the steering wheel yet.
YellaFella: No, that is just the annual MP’s report. As it is paid for out of Parliamentary expenses it can be political, and it is not allowed to go out during election time (so most MPs put them out just before). It’s good of Nick Brown not to break the rules, because many Labour MPs shamelessly use them as pre-election promotional material, and get away with it.
Re 48, Jamie, you are a brave man. There is at least one opportunity to throw Blair out on a card vote between now and then!
Sorry: “Can’t be political”
ChrisD on the other thread posted an article by Charlie Whelan in a Scottish publication (who seems to have moved up there to live) that Blair will be gone by May. He is usually quite knowledgeable about all things Gordon?
47. yesm HenryG. Between last time’s swing and new boundaries, his seat is not safe anymore (not a marginal, but not a safe seat either). So he needs to work it
IMO it’s Doug Henderson in NN who risks more
52. Yes - but hardly neutral
Is This The Man To Take On Gordon, Dave and Ming ?
Intelligence reaches me at the JNN that a determined challenger to Gordon Brown waits in the wings. A seasoned Labour big hitter and man of many guises, the leaking of his nascent campaign will send shock waves through the Labour leadership in particular and the wider political world in general
Polling over the weekend by ARSE has indicated that this thrifty and parsnipmonious will likely sweep Gordon Brown into the trenches of political history.
If Candidate X was Leader of the Labour Party how would you vote in a General Election ?
Labour 57%
Save the Tory Whales Party 13%
Conservative 12%
LibDem 7%
Peter the Punters Political Betting Party Party 3%
Wales Tory Party 2%
John Major Family Values Party 1%
Benedict’s Blog Party 0.001%
Rik W Reading & Writing Party 0.00025%
………………………
Candidate X is widely available at 1000/1 and I urge all PBers to wager several root vegetables on this cunning plan coming to fruition. I give you the next Prime Minister :
http://myspace-407.vo.llnwd.net/00295/70/42/295722407_m.jpg
Re 55 JackW,
5
Can’t see why you don’t agree with it commentator, seems pretty sensible to me. On the Tories, go with you on progress, but victories? Denham: when Gordo takes over, there will be ‘a night of the long knives’ would not be surprised to see Denham’s political career take a turn for the better.
56
:-) 
:-) 
:-)
Added to my collection of ‘best ever postings’.
Ah - a cunning plan by Jack to restore the family fortunes, he is clearly laying Gordon on Betfair!
17- Nick
As you request, a quick update on the French presidential campaign.
I did not comment last week due to a Lisbon vacation (internet-free).
Last update of my poll of polls :
1st round
Sarkozy 31.5
Royal 26.83
Le Pen 12.42
Bayrou 15.17
2nd round
Sarkozy 52.41
Royal 47.58
This average is a bit misleading as the two last polls (IFOP and CSA) were the best for Royal and the worst for sarkozy since mid-january. Both announced record levels for Bayrou (17% each), a stabilization of Royal’s level in the high twenties and a Sarkozy first round score under 30%.
Both still show a sarkozy victory in the second round but with smaller margins (51/49 and 50.5/49.5).
My analysis: Royal did well in last week’s tv program and got the benefit in terms of second round vote intentions. For the first time, Bayrou has taken some support from Sarkozy, as the favourite seemed a bit too laidback : he was almost invisible for a week, which lead to a maximum exposure for the other “big three”.
No poll has been taken yet after Royal rallying of the “old guard” (Jospin, Strauss-Kahn, Fabius, Kouchner,…). this will be a relief for left-wing voters but might not please the centrists.
Le Pen had his “presidential convention” this week-end but still doesn’t appear as menacing as in 2002.
Bayrou has a big tv interview tonight and Sarkozy will have one on thursday.
I think we can expect leaked polls later today or tomorrow morning.
20/30: As we’ve seen here, many Tories just dislike GB and can’t believe he’d be a good PM. Political betting history is littered with the banrupt accounts of people who bet with their personal preferences. He remains a shoo-in and has been for at least a year.
Thanks, Chris!
57 I was referring to our 316 council gains and Labour’s 319 losses plus the LDs very small net gains of 2 last May. We expect further wins this May.
Dwindling band of Labour MP’s in the South? When did that happen?
We’ve 9 in Kent alone, and only lost one at the last election!
60. The debate was interesting to me in that it mirrored the Bush/Kerry debates. Aside from the first one, Bush won the last two debates. Immediate post-debate polling and commentary - just as in France - gave the debates to his opponent, just as I read pieces saying Royale turned in a “weak” performance on TV. But when the real post-debate polls started there was a shift to Bush, just as there was a shift to Royale. Long-term it was a Bush win just as Royale took this one.
64. I wouldn’t get used to that if I were you. Laura Sandys has got your seat wrapped up.
66. Aren’t there only seven Labour MPs in Kent?
I would like to draw the attention to posters, to the appalling, news that a young man of 17, Ryan Florence has been arrested, his only crime liking drugs and guns. I do hope that the leader of the opposition, who at 17 also liked drugs and guns,(if only for shooting Bambi) will join my new campaign, ‘Free the Withenshaw one’ If any one out there would also like to contribute very large sums of money for what is a worthy cause, I will provide an address in the Caymen islands, to which all donations can be sent.
[66] Laura Sandys has got your seat wrapped up - works in Heal’s, does she?
68 - In the meantime you might learn how to spell Wythenshawe.
68 coldstone. Are you sure it wasn’t his tranny alter ego, Florence Ryan, that was arrested ??
68 It’s Cayman Islands, Coldstone, and you will be disappointed to learn they are pretty respectable these days, not least because of the strict money-laundering regime. What you are after is a Lictenstein Anstalt, as used by the Late Robert Maxwell. Now there’s a recommendation!
68. I wonder who the class warriors on here dislike the most - an unruly chav hoodie or an old Etonian ??
Re 61, Nick, I think Brown will make a bad PM for you, but I do now think he is a shoe in for sure!
65- Commentator
You may be right, but the context was a bit different : the TV show was not either a proper interview or debate, it was a dialogue with a panel of 100 “representative” French people cast by a pollster.
Therefore, it was really hard to judge her performance : it was terrible concerning her economic message (very archaic leftist) and not a single reference to either Europe, pensions, foreign policy, the 35 hrs working week,… s the experts were really disappointed.
But it seemed people liked her attitude, especially a much talked-over gesture to take the arm of a weelchair- bound multiple-sclerosis suffering man, that struggled to talk to her.
This “big mother” attitude, always one of her strong points, was the focal point of the show. Therefore she scored well in the next polls, even if the commentators (even from the left) were appalled.
I think that the traditional “style versus substance” debate regularly held here regarding Gordon Brown and David Cameron, could be applied to Ms Royal’s chances in this election : much will depend on the voters’ appraisal of the two big candidates :
- Sarkozy is more trusted and respected for his courage and his clear program of reforms, but many fear precisely the divisions and difficulties that could arise with those reforms;
- No one really knows what are Ms Royal’s real abilities and her program lacks coherence and/or credibility. But she plays quite well the “emotional” card: her message is compassionate and comforting, even if the direction is not clear.
73 Jamie. I rather dislike unruly old Etonian chavs ….. so last season darling !!
76 Surely a Viscount like your Lordship attended no lesser a school?
Suggesting that there is a hope in Slough that John Denham could become Labour leader puts speculation up a whole new level.
Brown at 1.27 on betfair is surely bargain of the century.
27 % chance of him getting hit by a bus ?
30. No panic yet.
In percentage terms it looks big but in reality I’m not sure the movement is significant yet.
If there’s a real story on the horizon his odds would move a lot more than this and it would be a very quick slippage. What is occurring right now is bit of a drift.
Roger, I do remember your liking for Mirren & in particular Idi Amin there. Have to say I didnt take any action on your suggestions. Very rarely touch the Oscars betting wise and had no real opinions on this year. I also can’t bring myself to bet on any tip that I can’t back with my own opinion. That stubbornly independent Norn Iron blood can be a pain in the arse on occasions like this…
Congrats. I shall take note next year.
78 Yes but it’s very helpful for those of us who got on at 1000-1 last year.
Re 79, Has someone persuaded Ken to reroute a few bus routes?
77 Commentator. At school in the Edwardian Uppingham we had a better class of chav and with Lord Bonkers as MP for Rutland SW, life seemed so much better.
80 Yokel. I recall a thread or two back you opined a desire for a Scottish castle. How about Forter Castle in Angus? A spectacularly restored 16th century pile. Presently for sale through Savills and a snip at £1.5 million :
http://www.fortercastle.com
84. “near Kirremuir” - I’d fear for the alloys on the Discovery
85 Jamie.
…. not exactly Bagdad though !
83 - And as corporal Jones (no chav, he) so memorably intoned, “They don’t like it Uppingham”.
re 33. I don’t remember the current incumbent having any cabinet experience previously.
84 I note it is convenient for “Mount Blair”. Is that a geographical location, or an instruction?
89 It’s a geographical location, Gus - near Spitroast.
84. Let me just see how much my share of a small, newish and thus struggling business is worth…..
Anyone reckon I could bargain them down by about oh, 1.3 mil?
68 coldstone and jamie 73- fits with Cameron’s profile that he was a hunter. So we get this about the guys background- a complete Toff, privileged to the hilt, liked partying in exclusive clubs that trashed places, performed a succession of non jobs, evasive on taking class A drugs (but his Bullingdon days clearly showed that he didn’t have much respect for the law), likes to shoot defenseless animals in line with his elitist buddies, or conversely let dogs rip them apart for a bit of fun;
and the Tory posters here are deploring an odd tick with Brown.
Give me the Withenshawe thug anyday than these deplorable, arrogant, hypocritical elitists that still think government is their inheritance (just to answer your question Jamie at 73)
Boundary Commission Report laid before Parliament today.
The full report in on the Stationery Office website:
http://www.official-documents.gov.uk/document/cm70/7032/7032.asp
87/89/90. Very good chavs …. Ooppps…. chaps !
91 Yokel. It’s a wonderful setting for the castle, set among the wonderful glens of rural Angus, highland Perthshire and bordering on the royal estate at Balmoral. Although a cup of royal sugar from the neighbours is scores of miles away !!
Guido slagging off polling methodology today - surely Mike has the patent on that ?
“Give me the Withenshawe thug anyday than these deplorable, arrogant, hypocritical elitists that still think government is their inheritance”
So you won’t be backing Gordon then Tyson?
Did you feel the same sense of outrage when Labour elected Blair considering he attended Fettes, am I correct in thinking that the same headmaster then moved onto the English equivalent and was there when Cameron attended?
“likes to shoot defenseless animals in line with his elitist buddies, or conversely let dogs rip them apart for a bit of fun”
I am no fan of hunting but equally if you feel that strongly, I suggest you avoid driving a car around the countryside where I live.
97. Tyson imagines that a 5 yr old Cameron should have piped up to his dad - “Please sir don’t send me to that elitist school - let me go to the local comprehensive ”
Lol.
Boundary Commission Report:
Appendix G lists every constituency by size of electorate in 2006 in descending order. If anyone has time on their hands it would be interesting to calculate the new average size of Labour, Conservative and Lib Dem seats (using notional 2005 results).
The 10 largest seats are (using Wells notional results to determine holder):
Isle of Wight - Con
West Ham - Lab
East Ham - Lab
Banbury - Con
North West Cambridgeshire - Con
Holborn & St Pancras - Lab
Croydon North - Lab
Milton Keynes South - Lab
Ilford South - Lab
Taunton Deane - Lib Dem
So 6 Lab, 3 Con and 1 LD. Obviously a full analysis is required but at first glance it appears that the average size of seats may be much less biased against the Conservatives than was previously the case.
98. Mike L - there is a good analyis of the “gap” on this site
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/
I can just about stomach an eltist leading Labour- a kind of benevolance and eccentricy about the English upper classes.
Blair’s background though is a mile away from Cameron’s- even at Eton there is a social pecking order- Cameron was at the top. Bullingdon is a mark of the elite at Oxford. It is a club where invitation and membership is secret- only the true blue bloods get in.
Cameron has married his own kind (contrast Blair)- he has fraternised only with his own kind- he charts the leadership of the Tories with a cabal of his Eton chums. Cameron has no knowledge, understanding, experience of anything outside his elitist clique.
This is why Cameron will start to come out with anachronistic policies. His first idea- tax relief on marriage is simply irrelevant. The guy is clueless- he is scratching around for ideas that resonate with the public, but belongs to a different group that cannot begin to undertand what is relevant for the ordinary British public.
Meanwhile the Conservatives announce their plans for border police. However I have grave misgivings about the nature of the Scottish plans, especially in light of Camerons sporting activities :
http://www.papiliophotos.com/SearchImages/P-MAM053-43.jpg
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6396103.stm
MikeL I think you need to look much more widely. I suspect the smallest seats will tend to be in inner city England so Labour still get an advantage as they always have. Obviously the acid test would be to average the size of notional tory versus notional labour constituencies, quite a large task but Wells and co may already have done it. Andrea?
100,Tyson,before you burst a blood vessel,one definihg moment (and IMHO this would be perfectly legitimate politics ) will be used against David Cameron- the point at which an ashen-faced Norman Lamont ,stood outside HM Treasury, early evening of Black Wednesday,announcing suspension of our ERM membership-at this point a young advisor is visible in the background-one David Cameron,I declare -’He was there’ is a mantle that can attached to DC,and even Tory posters would have to concede that’s a pretty bad recommendation
94. I need to speak to someone who knows how to build property portfolio Jack, you know, someone who knows their way around this kind of thing…
Anyone got Michael Meacher’s number?
100. That doesn’t mean he couldn’t do the job well.
99. I know. But the Boundary Commission Report has the official 2006 electorates for every seat. Electoral Calculus does not. Look at the electorates - the numbers on Electoral Calculus do not agree to the numbers on the Boundary Commission report.
95 Base size of 100 un-revealed ‘Opinion Formers’ is hardly what you’d call ‘robust’ is it?
Certainly not enough to warrant his Sun Headline:
http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,2-2007090307,00.html
The Gruaniad keeps it nicely in perspective:
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labourleadership/story/0,,2021495,00.html
Mike I would like to say I respect your views, and generally agree with you. However on Iraq you completely miss the point. NO ONE CARES. I have never in the last 3/4 years really met a person who genuinely cared about the issue following the invasion – and I speak as a person with LSE links! Most do however care a great deal about terrorism. Iraq has always been used by the hard-left and Islamic terrorist sympathisers to distract attention from the world’s greatest problem today - unchecked growth and expansion of Islamic terrorist intent, propaganda and military build-up. There are over 50 nations in the world that explicitly endorse the Islamic terrorist intent – and each is ratcheting up its mobilisation with each passing year. Too many commentators have already made there point that the Koran contains over 386 explicit instructions inciting hate, murder, rape, surprise attacks/ambushes, enslavement, robbery and a whole host of other serious crimes. http://www.skepticsannotatedbible.com/Quran/cruelty/long.html
UK prison population data proves that many do not simply read the Koran as an academic text, but actually go out and implement the text, carry out these crimes, with impunity. One would have to be badly out-of-touch not to have already encountered such crime or know of someone that has in any major British city.
It has only ever been a tiny cabal of left-wing nutters that do care about Iraq. They speak for less than 5% of the UK population in most surveys. Everyone else rates something else as more important. Most say it will not affect their voting attention – here, in the US, and elsewhere. A good case in point was the recent US Congress elections. The US hard-left (their Communists for some reason prefer to call themselves ‘liberals’) have followed their victory with hysterical rants about Iraq. Yet exit polls carried out on the day of the election proved conclusively that the major factors affecting voters decisions were terrorism, immigration and the economy. Many feel Bush badly let them down on all three – he has quite simply been too left-wing. Iraq did not even feature in the top 3. The same has been proven by every opinion conducted in the UK, and most major western nations. The public simply do not care about the issue. Casualties are extremely low compared to previous wars, and Islamic terrorists are distracted from attacking the west. It should be noted that prior to the Iraq victory attacks against western target were actually much greater than before – e.g. Kenyan embassy bombings, September 11, British tourist kidnappings, Moscow bombings, Paris bombings, etc. Since the Iraq wore this has been significantly reduced. Meanwhile the much greater security focus here in the UK means that our own hostile Muslim population is being more effectively kept in check – at least for now on specific strategies such as bombings and beheadings are being effectively countered.
Let’s get on with a more sensible agenda. Just because the Labour government has filled the ‘Radio 4’ airwaves with hard-core Communists ranting on about Iraq, and harking back to the wonders of the Soviet Union, does not mean the rest of us should pretend they represent the views and concerns of the general public in the UK as a whole or the wider world.
102. I don’t think anyone can have done the precise analysis yet as I don’t think anyone would have had the official 2006 electorates for the new seats.
Some analysis has been done (eg Baxter gap analysis) but this was not based on accurate up to date electorate figures for each seat.
100. Commissar Tyson, you missed your vocation - leading the Kulak and Counter Revolutionary liquidation squad.
101. “However, Labour have attacked the policy plans as “posture politics”.” Anyone for 90 detention or ID cards? I would prefer a border police approach rather than watch the government take even more of our liberty away from us.
JackW, has the Jacobite policy on deer stalking changed much in the last 100 years?
110. I think as long as you bring down the “monarch of the glen” with an antique claymore and cook it in the bracken over a peat fire while avoiding Campbells and redcoats then its allowed.
110. Wouldn’t all the deer still be Royal property under a Jacobite dispensation, making stalking a form of poaching… punishable by being forced to listen to endless Lib Dem Party Political Broadcasts?
Re 100, Tyson, you are an inverted snob I fear!
106 - Even less representative than the (in)famous 365 economists who famously signed a letter opposing the polies of Mrs T. As was said at the time, if they could have found 366 then there would have been one for every day of leap year, and they would still have been wrong.
Looking at the descriptions of the gallant 100, opinion formers, media people etc, I bet none would ever admit to reading the Sun. Said their probable organ of choice (the Guardian) has a more robust take on the story.
107 - Help!! The exact opposite of Roger. Please, please, no. That is one of the most bizarre postings ever. In fact the comparison is even a little unfair to Roger
Does anybody else think that GB has a similar nose in profile to Adolph Hitler? I just noticed this as he was in a car plant advocating the strength of the manufacturing base in this country. The new Toyota should go along way towards bridging the $170,000,000,000 (Sterling equivalent £85,000,000,000)trade gap in manufactured goods!
Not many will have bothered to get this far in Will Herberts strange post at 107 “Many feel Bush badly let them down on all three [terrorism, immigration and the economy.] – he has quite simply been too left-wing.”
Iraq is an expensive and inexcusable mess. What was Blair doing committing the UK to such an unthought through occupation,.
This Labour governments achievemnets of The Dome, Iraq and a Super Casino will not look impressive in 50 years time.
115. I think you might have encouraged the equally bizarre follow up at 115. with that cry for help.
118. Sorry I meant at 116.
110/111. An entirely accurate articulation of the Jacobite policy on deer stalking.
112 Scallywag. Listening to Lib Dem PPB’s is in Jacobite circles considered to be cruel and unusual punishment and thus at our disposal for poaching !!
107 Will Herbert - you are really ‘Web Thriller’ and I claim my £5!
Brown does have a similar feature to Adolph! You look, it is not bizarre and it shows that he has the characteristics of a national leader!
Presuming Brown wins and then loses in 2990/10 - who would be the likely successor - and would they benefit from having a stab at the leadership now or just sticking to the deputy race?
I can empathise with Tyson - I feel exactly the same about middle class leftie berks who think the state should run my life and that the solution to all problems is more state spending. They also always have a view that they have the moral highground on any and every issue (the snowflake AI system is a good example).
As for deer shooting, I’m not sure if people who complain understand how meat gets on to a plate, but deer shooting is the best way of farming these animals. Certainly better than sticking them into sheds cutting off their antlers and electrocuting them.
122. So he just needs to start brushing his hair across a bit more and wearing uniforms…then we will be on the verge of the 1000-year Reich hinted at by the post at 123.
123 Pimpernel. “Presuming Brown wins and then loses in 2990/10…” !!!!
My god !!! Nine centuries as Prime Minister !!!!!!!!
126. Well he should be cut out to lead for a thousand years. You can tell from his profile.
At least shooting is quick! If you slit the neck of an animal it takes quite a while for it to keel over.
The people moaning about it probably want rid of the royal family as well! Prince Philip has shot 37,000 animals plus, it is probably over the 40,000 mark come to think about it!
125. No he needs to grow a moustache and eating chocolate cake! He can nick one of Blair’s people’s cars!!!
127. Don’t his eyebrows meet in the middle as well? Very dodgy…
114,Without going too deep ,it is the case that in the first two years of Mrs.Thtacher’s first administration,major fiscal and monetary errors occured,causing a longer and deeper recession than might have been the case
PtP, totally O/T
Have you been further laying Kauto Star recently?
O/T Any reason for the move in Q3 in the Blair Switch Market. Now 1.7 (8/11) Q2 out to 3 (2/1)
Probably because (assuming Blair resigns in May),the election will take 8-10 weeks to confirm a new leader,taking us comfortably into the 3rd quarter of 2007 (i.e July 1st - September 30th)
134. You have to factor in the G8 summit date - Blair will not want to miss that jolly.
134. Couldn’t this whole process be made much quicker and cheaper by going back to having a show of hands in the Longbridge car park? That would please old-style tankies like Tyson as well.
132 Not recently,no, Yokel. But maybe I should. My spies in The West Country tells me it has rained so much there lately that Arkbuilding is becoming a major local industry.
Sorry you missed out on ND. I didn’t get the word from my mate until about 12.30pm. I put it up on the site but too late for you I guess.
What with that and Roger’s Oscar-tips, you’ve not been having the best of luck lately.
Make sure you buy your lottery tickets on Saturday. If you don’t, your numbers are sure to come up.
107. Suggest you read this.
http://news.scotsman.com/scotland.cfm?id=300012007
137. I just havent had time to study things as much as I can with life, the work and just all round kanckeredness so I suppose I’m losing some discipline. It’s more about the oppostunities missed rather than the losses at the moment. Ho hum.
Having said that, I read a little stat on Kauto star. Since stepping up to pattern company how many times has he won in races with 10 or more particpants? Big fat zero apparently out of five attempts. I need to check it but if its true, its a huge stat.
Soft ground at Cheltenham, I certainly hope so. I always seem to do better backing on extremes of ground. Having said that, Cheltenhams drainage system is rather good these days.
133 Nothing special, Honestdave, and certainly no new information. It’s probably just a reflection of a number of factors. Quarter 1 is now just about impossible and punters will be looking to put their money elsewhere. The July summit is definitely a factor and now cash for honours has quietened down, the ‘longer’ date might look the better bet to some. Remember too that a lot of money was put down by punters like me on Q2 and many will be hedging into the Q3 option.
Personally, I still think it’s 50/50 between Qs 2 & 3, so the 2/1 on the former is pretty good value if you are entering the market now. I am sure TB would like to stay as long as possible but if the May elections are a disaster, I doubt if he will get his wish.
136,I trust you are not disrespecting Red Robbo (notorious union leader at Longbridge )?!
139 My biggest concern for my KS bet, Yokel, is that the bloody meeting is abandoned. Fortunately, that ‘rather good drainage system’ should safeguard us. OTOH, it’s already looking like quick ground is out the question.
139
Yokel loads of rain in Cheltenham last week. My garden is a tad boggy. Soft ground or good to soft, soft in places seems most likely.
Re Kauto Star. The gold cup is likely to cut up and the field will be probably be in the low teens.
Any Scots posters able to explain why Labour are ahead of the SNP in Betfair on the largest Party in the Scottish Parliament after May when polls suggest the opposite outcome, not least the most recent Scotsman poll ( 44 SNP seats to 41 for Labour). The Scotsman today reporting serious internal ructions inside the Labour campaign with a senior resignation and Special Advisers heading for the exit expecting the worst.
143. That’ll be big enough of a field. He don’t seem to like a crowd around him at all.
143 Au contraire, mon vieux Cheltboy, some of the rags will stay in as long as there is a chance of KS ducking it. Start looking for an outsider…with webbed feet!
O/T new french election poll
poll LH2(fieldwork on 23 and 24 february)
first round
sarkozy 30 (-3)
royal 27 (+2)
bayrou 17 (+3)
le pen 13 (=)
second round
sarkozy 50 (-3)
royal 50 (+3)
this is the first poll since early january not to give sarkozy as the winner.
Update of my poll of polls
1st round
Sarkozy 31
Royal 27.5
Le Pen 12.42
Bayrou 15.66
2nd round
Sarkozy 51.08
Royal 48.92
This new poll confirms the trend towards royal since last monday.
“Re 100, Tyson, you are an inverted snob I fear!”
That’s exactly what you called me yesterday Benedict. You have to try to keep your insults fresh! Incidentally Tyson may sound a little class warriorish but as I said yesterday Cameron’s back history-and I don’t mean going to Eton-is going to prove more of a problem than some on here think!
(101. JackW-excellent photo of the Scots border guard!)
Will Herbert is Melanie Phillips and I claim my £5!!
148. Roger - re. your ‘medical condition’. I have heard recently of an affliction in which the sufferer repeats, parrot-like, all the idle chatter he or she hears - no matter how inane or absurd it is. Have your doctors considered whether this might be the correct diagnosis for your ills?
149. lol
147, That is useful news for me. Despite the fact that the market is reasonably illiquid with a mere 80k matched, there was no way that Royal was going to trail Sarkozy by as much as she did a mere two weeks ago.
Whilst I still think Sarkozy will win it the margin was always likely to narrow.
150 Admit it, Scally, you’re only sulking ‘cos you didn’t back Roger’s Oscar tips.
100% right, wasn’t it Roger?
154. Who’d have thunk that Helen Mirren would have won eh ? - a real coupon buster..
139,145 re Kauto Star — the trouble with Nick Mordin’s field-size theory is that KS makes a complete mess of things when there is no crowding at the fence.
150.” I have heard recently of an affliction in which the sufferer repeats, parrot-like, all the idle chatter he or she hears - no matter how inane or absurd it is.Have your doctors considered whether this might be the correct diagnosis for your ills?
”
are you referring to Pot and Kettle’s comments?
156. To be fair more than one poster might be suffering from this condition.
157. Maybe all posters are suffering from it…but since NHS don’t cure it for free, doctors can’t afford to solve this problem….
154 Another sulker, Rog! What price an accumulator on the lot?!
159. I do admire your efforts to humour our sick friend, Ptp.
On the subject of betting,for the first time in years,I am going to do the football pools this Saturday-as I am a football amorak I feel confident about predicting the top two tiers of English soccer,but beyond that I am less sure-ideas anyone?
161.
Away from the top 4 in the premiership, home advantage dominates - I had 3/3 results yesterday - all home wins.
161
just dont start laying first goalscorer bets on betfair like a load of greedy mugs at moneysavingexpert did on the cup final at the weekend!!
Lord Bonkers’ Diary 316
25 February 2007
Lord Bonkers is unwell, but sends readers a selection of bon mots from his 2006 columns.
February
Good God! Merciful Heavens! I count myself a pretty broad-minded fellow – I went to Uppingham – but really! What has been going on? Kennedy! Rising Star!! The Reverend Hughes??? I shall not pretend I did not notice a certain froideur when I invited the larger part of the parliamentary party to Christmas luncheon at the Hall, but I never dreamed it would come to this. As I leaf through the cuttings in the press office at Cowley Street, a host of images swim before me: Kennedy sprawled on the pavement beneath his office window; Oaten announcing his candidature with Lembit Öpik at his side (Öpik, incidentally, is wearing that hat of his – the one with the radio antennae which link him to a number of satellites so that he can be made aware at once of approaching asteroids); the Reverend Hughes declaiming “My name is Simon Hughes and I am running for Bishop” from the pulpit of St Tatchell’s, Bermondsey. Thank goodness I was in Rutland for all of it!
May
Over breakfast Ming mentions that he has put Harvey in charge of our defence policy. “I expect that he is on manoeuvres right now,” the eminent man of Fife adds. I hardly have time to remonstrate with him before leaping into the Bentley and heading for the gunnery ranges on Salisbury Plain at top speed. I arrive not a moment too soon. Some fellow with a promising moustache is showing Harvey over the army’s new pride and joy. “You just set the computer coordinates here,” he says, “load the gun and – Bam! – you can blow up anywhere you like.” “What, say, just for instance, Battersea Dogs’ Home?” Harvey asks with that dangerous gleam in his eye. “Of course,” replies the promising moustache. “Let me see. Battersea. TFG755634/98. There you are. We are pointing at the place now.” Just as Harvey is pressing the red firing button I throw myself upon the console and give the computer dial a wrench. There is a loud explosion and the shell heads for the English Channel. I later learn that I winged some wretched little foreign fishing boat, but in all modesty I can claim to have saved the day.
July
In recent days there has been a great deal of ill-informed comment about our Deputy Prime Minster’s penchant for the game of croquet; he has suffered obloquy and had contumely poured over him – and dried contumely is a devil to brush off one’s jacket. The charge seems to be that by indulging in this pastime Prescott is betraying his proletarian roots. What rot! Have these people never been to Kingston upon Hull? If they did so they would see games of croquet taking place on every street corner, allotment and piece of waste ground. After a hard day’s trawling, there is nothing the doughty citizen of that historic city enjoys more than tying his whippet to a hoop and wielding the mallet in his shirtsleeves. Granted the game is a little rougher than that one encounters in the Home Counties – and features a more prominent role for dried fish – but to dismiss it as the preserve of the aristocracy betrays the most dreadful ignorance.
August
There can be fewer sadder tales than that of Mark Oaten – or Rising Star as I still think of him. This innocent Red Indian brave, through a strange concatenation of circumstances, found himself elected Member for the historic city of Winchester. It must have been a shock to someone more used to hunting buffalo or putting arrows through the hats of passing stagecoach drivers, but at first he made a good fist of things and was re-elected a couple of times with a juicy majority. However, as is so often the case, fame turned his head and he began to get ideas above his station (which is Waterloo for Winchester, incidentally). In rapid succession he had himself made Kennedy’s Parliamentary Private Secretary (“Rising Star carry heap big firewater,” as he once remarked to me), Chairman of the Parliamentary Party and Shadow Home Secretary, jettisoning his moccasins and acquiring a suit along the way. In this last post he hit upon the idea of making prisoners study. (Locked up and made to learn Latin verbs? It sounds just like public school and I am sure the European Court would step in). Then hubris took hold of him and he stood for the leadership of our party. I need not recount here the distasteful details of his fall here (they may be purchased separately from the Bonkers Head Press under a plain brown wrapper), but that was the end of poor Rising Star. Now he is attempting to make a living in show business. I cannot see it working for him, but when he calls today I use my good offices to find him a part in a keep-fit video being made in Jamaica by a friend. Its name? Pilates of the Caribbean.
December
Perhaps because of my efforts to combat global warming, the day dawns cold and blustery; I therefore resolve to spend it in my Library amongst my papers. I soon turn up an old issue of the Radio Times carrying an article on the programme “I am Rather Well Known. May I Leave Now Please?” Though long forgotten, this was quite the thing in its day and frequently challenged “What’s My Line” and “Muffin the Mule” for pride of place in the ratings. IARWKMILNP (as it was popularly known) featured a number of celebrities of the day staying in a country house and suffering various indignities – an unsuitable choice of wine with the fish course, being obliged to go for a country walk when they would have been quite happy with the newspaper – to the amusement of the viewing millions. It was quite a coup when I was able to arrange for Clement Davies, then Liberal leader, to take part in the programme. That year the other contestants included such luminaries as Sherpa Tensing, Pat Smythe the show jumper, Gilbert Harding, Dame Anna Neagle and Wally Hammond. Unfortunately, poor Clement was voted out in the first round when the viewers’ postcards were counted; I have always suspected low dealing from Muffin the Mule’s agent, as he had hoped that his client would take part. Nevertheless, our victory in the Torrington by-election came shortly after IARWKMILNP was shown, and I flatter myself that the show played no small part in it.
162,163 Cheers for the tips-home advantage ,whilst a good pointer would not work bottom v top in whichever league-I will re-inspect the tables,and the ever-useful football betting webpage-my West Ham are now 1/12 for the drop-as Scunthorpe United look good for promotion to the Championship,along with Burnley at least there’ll be 6 claret and blue derbies next season
162/3/5 As a Leyton Orient supporter, I can inform you that they suddenly have a forward line and should now pull away from the relegation zone.
West Ham are down.
50.You mean like Asperger’s syndrome? Unfortunately the wrong part of the body! Incidentally deoes anyone know what illness Ming had a few years ago?
Unfortunately PtP my reputation is such that any ‘tips from me are seen as a betting opportunity only in that they eliminate those that I have tipped!! Hopefully this should be the start of the long road back to t5o tipsterdom!
Re Cameron; An Old Etonian is one thing but a ‘Hooray Henry’ is quite another! I wonder how many Bambi’s he’s shot recently?
50.You mean like Asperger’s syndrome? Unfortunately the wrong part of the body! Incidentally deoes anyone know what illness Ming had a few years ago?
159. Unfortunately PtP my reputation is such that any ‘tips from me are seen as a betting opportunity only in that they eliminate those that I have tipped!! Hopefully this should be the start of the long road back to to tipsterdom!
Re Cameron; An Old Etonian is one thing but a ‘Hooray Henry’ is quite a different kettle of fish! I wonder how many little Bambi’s he’s shot?
O/T new french election poll
poll Ipsos(fieldwork on 23 and 24 february)to be published thursday in “Le Point”
first round
sarkozy 31 (-2)
royal 26 (+3)
bayrou 17,5 (+1.5)
le pen 13 (=)
second round
sarkozy 53 (-1)
royal 47 (+1)
This is by far the best poll for Sarkozy published since last monday. However the trends are the same :
- very high level for bayrou whos is now clearly ahead of Le Pen (however the fieldwork was before Le Pen’s “presidential convention” and many journalists still think his score is understated in the polls)
- rise of royal in both first and second round, but still behind Sarkozy on both.
Update of my poll of polls
1st round
Sarkozy 30.5
Royal 27
Le Pen 12.42
Bayrou 16.25
2nd round
Sarkozy 51.75
Royal 48.25
This new poll confirms the trend towards royal since last monday.
166,Thanks for the tip re the Os-I would say Rotherham are down in your league,but apart from that its 3 from about 6 at the bottom-the top 7 or 8 write themselves -as for West Ham,I hope it is a cleansing experience to drop out,and that we are hungrier and leaner next season (Oh,the joys of obscure venues away on a mid-winter Tuesday:-)
Put some money on Royal while you can get good odds. My favourite restauranteur on the Cote d’Azur assures me she will win (and I fear he is a Le Pen sympathizer) and that’s good enough for me!
155. You dont need crowding at least thats how I have always read it in this scenario. It was Mordin during his days at the ill fated Odds On magazne who put me on to it being a useful idea, in fact a pretty reliable one in my experience, when combined with other factors. Thus any time he points it out, I listen.
As you will have no doubt read I already had a near total belief that Kauto Star would lose at Cheltenham anyway so thsi just adds to it.
171. Cont…because he thinks the French voters are stupid and who can argue with that after last time?
171- I’m relieved, as a Sarkozy supporter, that you seem so confident of Ms Royal’s victory…
173- i do not feel personnaly insulted by your characterization of French voters (I was not one last time) but I think that you and him are wrong : it is a bit sad, but Chirac was really the best solution offered last time (out of an incredibly bad cast of candidates)
153 - If you’d pooled roger’s tips with mine of Jennnifer Hudson and another oscar for Little Miss Sunshine (best orig screenplay) then I think only best picture was wrong, unsurprisingly I suppose, since it was the most open race in years.
On Royal I said it was far too early to tell when the polls were all heading one way and, even with this turnaround, it’s too close to call. Sarkozy is overdue a mistake, the timing of it may well be crucial.
175. The fact that the cast was indeed ‘incredibly bad’ tells you something though, doesn’t it?
Gordon Brown in Adolf Hitler Nose transplant shock!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/6396713.stm
Lord Bonkers - wonderful as always. How many seats did Torrington give us? Was that when the party needed a second taxi?
Take the long view about the Liberal Party and it is all going to plan!
156 - I think that you will find it is Roger that repeats idle chatter. His “straws in the wind lunches”, conversations with family, politically aware people in Edinburgh. It goes on and on.
171- This is priceless “My favourite restauranteur on the Cote D’Azure”. Come on Woger, what price is his Foie Gras. I thought Labour wanted to ban it! Champagne Socialism. You have moved on from Great Bores to Glenda Slag.
176, That’s a little ungenerous! Best actor best actress best supporting actor best director and best cinematographer and if you had seen my proviso about Hollywood not liking foreigners you would have got best supporting actress and best film as well! Surely you are not saying this is only the best that can be expected in a difficult year!
182 - I think you misread my post, I said that most of yours were right, I added a couple of extra thoughts regarding your initial Best supp. actress and saying not to write off Little Miss Sunshine because of your dislike of it and lauding of Babel. Babel went away pretty much empty handed (except best score), I didn’t rate is highly as you, I was just trying to add a couple where I thought you’d gone in the wrong direction.
Your best film and best adapted screenplay suggestions both went to The Departed instead - I wasn’t expecting that either but it was Scorsese’s year (at last).
The only one that really surprised me was best song - probably Dreamgirls’ three songs cancelled each other out. I think the main surprise this year was there was no real surprise. Usually you get something out of left field.
Looks like Adrian Bailey will have not have a straight forward reselection in West Brom West.
http://www.ministryoftruth.org.uk/2007/02/26/all-change-in-west-bromwich-west/
166. “As a Leyton Orient supporter, I can inform you that they suddenly have a forward line and should now pull away from the relegation zone.”
Until next month when Jarvis goes back to Norwich!
173. Chris. I hope you don’t feel insulted. I’m the biggest francophile around. I just like the assurance of the French. No if’s but’s or maybe’s!
I have no preference over these two. I was quite a fan of Mitterand. I went to do a two week course in France which among other things involved watching French news every morning. During an interview with Mitterand he was asked what he felt about only having only 15% support in the polls? He replied that as he is in office for another four years that’s their problem and not his!
183. Henry, interesting. I suppose that the affiliates will try and help to save him.
Talking of Jarvis…..
I thought rail accidents due to poor maintainence wouldn’t be
possible once the filthy private sector had been removed from the picture?
184 I didn’t say how long it would last, Ian!
Paul at 182. Best screenplay was an area I shouldn’t have gone down. I don’t know whether you saw the original Japanese version of ‘The Departed’ but it was so much better than the American re-make though an almost identical screenplay that I really couldn’t see it winning.
It was for that reason that I thought it would be lucky to win best film. having said that there was really only that and Babel that stood a chance. I loved Babel though I know a lot of people who didn’t. I even saw it twice in three days and the second seeing was better than the first.
I liked the screenplay for Notes on a Scandle because I like those kind of clever dialogue English films (Closer was another) but I know they don’t go down so well in Hollywood.
Usually pretty much any Hollywood remake emasculates the script, ‘that’s what they do’, it appeared to be part of the Scorsese bandwagon however and, with his Oscar history, ‘who knew?’. I did think the little movie that could (LMS) would be rewarded though and, as much as Morgan, Marber or Greengrass etc etc deserved it you always know that Hollywood would stick to their own as much as they could.
I don’t know if there are any markets for the Tony’s (stage beats out screen in my world) but come June 10th I’ll give my predictions!
189. It was completely ripped off, albeit in a stylish way with a good cast. some of the scenes and settings were identical to Infernal Affairs. but hey ho, at least it contained some of the best one liners - “who are you?” “I’m the guy that does his job, which one are you?” also the speech by baldwin about marriage is a little gem
187 Indeed. Why am I not surprised that the ghastly rail unions are thrashing about trying to blame everyone but their members? At least the Chief Executive of Network Rail had the courage and dignity to step up to the plate, accept responsibility and apologise unreservedly.
New thread
93,98. Mike L, thanks for posting the link to the Boundary Commission report. Based on Anthony Wells’ notional winners the average electorates are:
2000 Con 69703, Lab 69203, LD 69239
2006 Con 70753, Lab 68889, LD 69540
The time lag between the start of the review and implementation costs the Conservatives roughly a net one seat per year.
194. Kevin L - thanks a lot. Very interesting. Looks as if the Boundary Review was very fair and population movements since 2000 are minimal.
If tactical voting against the Conservatives is reduced, this may suggest that votes convert to seats in a more equitable way.
I interviewed John Denham on GMTV last year, just before the Conferences, I think, and he said that he wasn’t interested in running for either the deputy leadership or the leadership. I’ll try to find the transcript somewhere. Of course, he could change his mind, but I’d guess that he’d be more interested in a return to government in a job where he could make a difference, even though he seems quite happy now making contributions from the backbenches and chairing the Home Affairs Committee. He’s certainly talented and respected, but I can’t see him running, let alone winning.
I put money on Denham at almost a 1000-1 and in fact asked Betfair to add him. It would be an amazing feat for him, never having held a Cabinet post, but he sounds very reasonable. He may be leftie, I don’t know, but he’s not very liberal, and although the commentariat wouldn’t like that, voters do.