Which poll will Gordon pick this morning?

March 28th, 2007

    Tory CR lead slashed as Populus predicts a Scottish Labour collapse

Brown nose RH.JPGThe first two of three polls which are expected today have produced good and bad news for Labour.

  • Communicate Research for the Independent has the following shares with comparisons on a month ago CON 35% (-5): LAB 31% (+2): LD 20% (+3).
  • Populus for the Times on May’s Scottish election has SNP 38%: LAB 28%: LD 15%: CON 14% in the constituency section. On the regional list it is SNP 35%: LAB 30%: LD 14%: CON 14%
  • The Indy poll will be seen as a welcome boost for Labour and should ease some of the jitters that have been prompted by the other firms in recent weeks.

    From the detailed data it looks as though the main reason for the change is a big reduction in the proportion of Tory voters saying they would be certain to vote.

    It will be interesting to compare the CR numbers with the March survey from Ipsos-Mori, due today, which only uses the “certains to vote” in its headline figures. If that pollster has picked up the same trend then we can expect a similar decline in the Tory position.

    The Populus poll from Scotland is potentially devastating for Labour and suggests that the SNP is heading for victory in the May 3rd elections for the Edinburgh parliament.

    The Times projects that the SNP will win 50 of the 129 seats against 43 for Labour, 18 for the Lib Dems, 17 for the Tories and one for the Greens.

    A new betting market on who will be Scotland’s first minister after the election has the SNP leader, Alex Salmond, at 8/11. That looks like a value bet as is the 0.73/1 that’s available on Betfair on the SNP winning most seats is 0.73/1.

    Communicate Research, it should be said, has built up a reputation for turbulence and unlike all the other pollsters has found Labour leads twice in the past five months. Its final poll before the last general election predicted an 8% Labour margin against the 3% that actually happened. All the other pollsters were closer including the firm which the Indy then used – NOP which got it spot on.

    Mike Smithson

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