Sean Fear on the local elections
April 20th, 2007
This week he makes his predictions
Last week, I explained the background to these local elections. This week, I shall outline my predictions.
Scotland is relatively easy to predict. The introduction of PR means that Labour would lose at least 100 council seats, even if their support stayed at its 2003 level. In all likelihood, Labour’s support will be lower than in 2003, and their loss of seats will be around 150. The SNP are likely to gain a similar number and there should be small net gains for the Conservatives and Lib Dems.
Labour are unlikely to retain overall control of more than three authorities, Glasgow, North Lanarkshire, and Midlothian. It is unlikely that any other authority will remain under the overall control of any one party, although several authorities should continue to elect majorities of independents.
In England, I would expect the notional vote shares to be Conservative 40%, Lib Dem 27%, Labour 24%.This will be different from the actual vote share, as the smaller parties and independents should win at least 15% of the total vote, and there are no elections in London.
I believe the Conservatives will gain around 750 seats, net, the Liberal Democrats will be broadly unchanged, and Labour will lose around 850 seats. The difference will be made up by gains for minor parties, principally the Greens and BNP.
I expect the Conservatives will gain the large majority of Gravesham, Lincoln, Corby, and Plymouth (from Labour) Bournemouth, Torbay, Uttlesford, and Shepway (from the Lib Dem.), and Chester, Crewe and Nantwich, Rugby, Bath & NE Somerset, South Gloucestershire, Braintree, South Derbyshire, Dover, Dartford, Crawley, Gedling, Waverley, and Mid Suffolk, (from no overall control). I believe the likeliest Conservative losses are Hyndburn (to Labour) and Thurrock (to no overall control). I do not anticipate the Conservatives winning overall control of Brighton & Hove.
I think the Liberal Democrats are likely to gain Rochdale, Hull, Bristol, Harborough, Woking and North Somerset (all from No Overall Control). In addition to the councils mentioned above, I consider they are likely to lose St. Alban’s to no overall control.
I believe Labour are likely to win Hyndburn, where they have performed very wll in by-elections. As well as the Councils mentioned above, I anticipate they will lose Blackburn & Darwen, Blackpool, Oldham, NW Leicestershire, Barnsley, Middlesborough, and Sheffield to No Overall Control.
There was just one by-election last night. Rhondda Cynon Taf CBC, Aberaman South. Plaid 675, Labour 667. This was a Plaid gain from Labour on a big swing.
Sean Fear, a London Tory, writes weekly for the site.
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I’m increasingly thinking that terrorism could become an issue in the closing stages of this campaign. The Operation Crevice trial is likely to end soon, and this will mean that damaging information regarding 7/7 will no longer be sub judice. If the jurors can reach a majority verdict in the next few days, this new information will spark a new debate about who knew what when, which could be very damaging to the government.
Luton could swing to LD - currently NoC (22-21-4-2 (Lab-LD-Con-Ind)), but LD would only have to win 3 more seats to gain control.
There are rumours and reports in Birmingham that Respect has become an ‘ethnic’ party. With the mass of positions and selections belonging to the same clan and the trots effectively being squeezed out.
While this development if true may bring them an extra seat or two It may also be the beggining of the end.
The next two weeks will be really interesting to see if they can restrain themselves from an overt harvesting of Clan votes.
Anyone heard anything similar , I know its unlikely with no London contest ?
In Luton, there are 4 Respect candidates - two from ethnic minorities, and two trots.
Sean - I agree with you re: smaller parties. I think the Greens and the BNP will pick up 40 seats each.
This is what the BBC are saying (worryingly) about Sandwell.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6575333.stm
BB
Sean - do you think that the Tories will gain Vale of White Horse DC? They were ahead of Evan Harris in this area in 2005 (Evan won because the Oxford City area gave him a massive lead), and there are lots of close wards, with Labour are contesting some of the marginal wards (which will hit the Lib Dems). It’s also next door to Cameron’s seat, which should presumably help the Tories. Quite an interesting bell-weather council for how the Tories are doing in reviving against the Lib Dems, anyway.
4 how long can the trots and the islamists keep working together? One lot wants a centralised state controlled by an elite few that ensures perpetual poverty and misery for all in the name of a greater utopia at some future date and the other lot… oh, they’re the same.
hm - I think your seat share for the Tories is a little low in view of the large numbers of extra candidates, and the increase in unopposed Tories elected. I would guess that the Tories will gain between 750 and 1000 seats.
A number of those would be at the expense of Indpendents, so I think your gains for Others are at the top end of the scale. But a few strong local performances (Tendring First Sheppey First People First Party etc) would soon affect that.
I’m not convinced that Labour will go as low as 24%. Their support is pretty soft - but not softer than at the same time last year.
With local elections so much depends on relative turnout that I always think a lot rides on the news story dominating the media that morning. I suppose it will be Blair - and I don’t rule out people feeling a little premature nostalgia.
PS: Shepway is NOC isn’t it?
5. Interesting. Sandwell is certainly somewhere I would expect to see a significant gain for the BNP.
6. I just don’t know enough about Vale of the White Horse to predict it.
I suppose I ought to describe Shepway as NOC, although the majority of its councillors were elected as Liberal Democrats.
With the cash for honours file handed to the CPS the next few days could be very interesting. If the charges are dropped, I wouldn’t say Labour would benefit particularly (though they’ll be relieved) but if charges are brought I could very easily see this further damaging their local election prospects (a bit like Nanny Hewitt’s run in with the nurses and Prescott’s affair last year)
11. Sorry, should say “if no charges are brought” of course, not “charges are dropped!”
10 This is correct.
Last year gains and losses (councillors as well) were generally calculated on the position going into the elections. I prefer to take the last election outcome as the starting point, but I don’t think it is practical these days (especially given the varying dates councils were last elected).
8,”I think your seat share for the Tories is a little low in view of the large numbers of extra candidates, and the increase in unopposed Tories elected. I would guess that the Tories will gain between 750 and 1000 seats”
I would have thought that the majority of unopposed returns and assured seats for lack of opposition are in their safe wards and so the great majority of them are “hold” and won’t impact the gains prediction.
3. 4. The inevitable final stage of Labour’s disastrous multiculturalism…overtly ethnic political parties. The weird alliance of islamofascists and trots was never likely to last.
the cash for honours file has been handed to the CPS
11.”but if charges are brought I could very easily see this further damaging their local election prospects (a bit like Nanny Hewitt’s run in with the nurses and Prescott’s affair last year) ”
I wouldn’t want to be in Lab local candidates’ shoes if cahrges are brought 2 weeks before polling day. I would be very, very, very angry with those charged….
11. Key point here is surely that the contents of this file will leak out…probably bad for justice but not necessarily good for Labour electorally speaking.
Many thanks for the article Sean, I hope my election will be a Con gain!
Police hand honours file to CPS
Scotland Yard’s Assistant Commissioner John Yates
Assistant Commissioner John Yates has been heading up the inquiry
The file from the police investigation into whether people were nominated for honours in return for money has been handed over to prosecutors.
The year-long probe had widened in recent months to look into any attempt to pervert the course of justice.
Scotland Yard said that 136 people had been interviewed. They include Tony Blair and some of his closest aides.
The Crown Prosecution Service will now decide whether anyone should be charged. All involved deny wrongdoing.
A Scotland Yard spokesman said that what they consider to be their main file on the investigation was “a 216 page report with supportive material”.
He said there had been extensive consultation with the CPS during the inquiry, and this was the 12th police submission - in total they have handed over 6,300 documents.
He said it was now for the CPS to decide whether any charges should be brought.
The police inquiry began after it emerged that secret loans had been made to Labour before the 2005 general election, and that some lenders had subsequently been nominated for peerages.
The probe was widened to include the other main parties. Four people have been questioned under caution during the course of the inquiry, including Tony Blair’s chief fundraiser Lord Levy and Number 10 aide Ruth Turner.
No-one has been charged with any offence.
11 Matt1 - How quickly do you think the CPS are likely to move? What would be a reasonable, or normal time for them to make a decision and bring charges, if indeed any are brought?
21. Surely it will take weeks if not months for the CPS to decide? After a year’s investigation the file must be pretty big.
216 pages - 10 pages an hour ? Monday I would guess
23 The CPS works weekends?
Re Predictions, I agree with Sean Fear on the +750 Conservatives but only -800 Labour.
The Lib Dems are more of a puzzle because they have slipped a bit since 03 and this cycle of seats has them more stretched than any other group of local elections with half their councillors just trying to get re-elected.
Because the Lib Dems rely upon their ability to bring in resources from a wide area, that strength is diminished at these elections. So because of the stretch and their low polls I forecast 100 losses for LDs.
Re 21, Peter I think somewhere between 1 and 3 months, though what is in it is unlikely to be a surprise to the CPS so it may be on the quicker side.
A little taster of what Tony B and Gordo can expect if they pursue their Constitution-without-a-referendum plan:
The Sun leader today:
EU phoney Tony
TONY BLAIR wants Brussels to dump its disastrous plan for a written constitution.
Good idea, Tony. Nobody wants a federal superstate — which is what this grandiose scheme is all about.
But it seems the PM is not actually opposed to the treaty itself.
He just wants to sneak it in by instalments through the back door.
And avoid the referendum he promised the British people — knowing we would give it a resounding NO!
This is a warning shot across the bows. If they try to sneak in anything like the EU Constitution without a vote, they will be torn apart by the press. Either they will have to back down and agree to a vote (as before, ignominiously) or they will have to veto the Constitution, unless it is miracuously slimmed down to nothingness.
Tough call.
Gordo will lose the support of all Murdoch papers, esp the Sun, if he signs up to this, likewise the Mail and sister papers will savage him. Can he risk this with a knife-edge G/E ahead?
What happened to the freedom of Information for all except anything about Tory MPs bill this afternoon?
Your usual excellent summary , Sean , Portsmouth may just go LibDem from NOC only 1 gain is needed and they are making a big effort in 1 of the 2 Labour wards being defended and the Conservatives seem to be having some internal arguments between the Portsmouth North and South branches . Coventry may be a surprise Conservative loss as they have problems with 2 councillors having been deselected/resigned and standing next month . I am sure there will be 1 or 2 other surprises on the night .
Chronically Off Thread….
…but I just noticed how far the price of Nine de Sivola has contracted. It was 8/1 for tomorrow’s Scottish Grand National when I put it up. It is now best price 11/2, only with Paddy Power. If you are interested, take that price.
I hear that the horse is fit and well. I’ll be hearing more about tomorrow lunchtime and will try to report again before the off.
Re 25: -800+ Lab -100 Lib Dems +750 Cons
Who gets the other 150+ gains?
28 - it’s been talked out. Gone to the back of the queue so it’s effectively dead. But the government clearly likes the idea, so it wouldn’t surprise me if it appears in a piece of their legislation soon enough.
Thanks Eddie.
19 Benedict , the amount of time you are spending posting on here and your blog instead of canvassing/campaigning gave me the impression that you were the proverbial paper candidate LOL
Sean you missed Bury. M.B.C I’m shocked :0
26 That was my thinking, too, young Benny. I should think the CPS must pretty well know exactly what’s in it already. You could hardly blame them though if they thought about it a bit…and a bit more…and then some.
Sean, in January you were suggesting the LDs to win S Gloucs. Why have you suddenly changed your tune?
sorry should be
14 I wondered about this, Andrea. But some of the unopposed wins are in seats previously held by independents (and indeed other parties) - and of course it gives the Tories more resources for those wards where there is a contest. So it is a significant boost.
I’m not sure labour will lose oldham. There’s certainly some political tension in rochdale next door and I do think there will be damage done to the lab/tory coalition there but in Oldham cllrs seem to be fairly relaxed. The libdems did manage to get into power for 2 years not so long back in Oldham and failed to bed themselves in and they’ve been on the back foot since
Re 34, Mark, In the ward I am standing in we are out delivering them 3 to 1 at the moment.
What is more we are canvasing hard!
Re 36, Peter I do hope they give it some thought, we don’t want any cockups!
40 LibDems gained 2 seats from Labour last year and 1 from Conservatives , I would expect 2/3 more gains from Labour this year to make LibDems the largest party and the council NOC .
Good to see Nelson Mandela getting his second statue in London. I think there should, in fact, be statues of him in all cities and towns across the UK, and we should have a national Nelson Mandela Day, when people are forced to throw garlands in the air and weep with joy at the ending of Apartheid.
Then we must erect a five mile high Winnie Mandela fountain, in place of St Paul’s Cathedral, where blind and crippled black orphans can do ritual necklacings.
40 I thought the Lab Tory coalition had come to an end in Rochdale after a labour councillor had defected to the lib dems.
45. it has the libs control it now
I don’t know how long the CPS will take. Probably a while. In fact, the more I think of it it’s pretty unlikely any charges will be brought (if any) this side of the local elections, unless there’s been a clear plan of action already settled.
If charges are brought, the thing that’s going to be damaged the most is the Blair departure/succession. It could hang over the whole process and threaten to overshadow it and leave the whole Labour Party looking pretty grubby.
Poor Tony. You get the feeling that he’s not going to go “with the crowd wanting more” at all. Instead he’s going to look like a sleazy premier who clung on too long and sold Britain out to Europe as his final act.
Police hand honours file to CPS report BBC
re 48, Robin, *cough* so does my blog
48. Queen Victoria reported dead
50.
Damm when did that happen
Any chance of getting Westminster to change their mind? We need a Vaclav Havel Statue, not another Nelson MAndela.
There was another by election in Wales - Vale of Glamoran, Llantwit Major Other gain from Ind
“I see Mafeking has been relieved”.
Hancock’s Half Hour - magazine, dentist’s waiting room
51.
39.”I wondered about this, Andrea. But some of the unopposed wins are in seats previously held by independents ”
yes, I’m sure in some cases it’s in that way (for ex IIRC Labour has actually gained a couple of seats in Eastington because of Independents retirements and no-one else standing)
“of course it gives the Tories more resources for those wards where there is a contest. So it is a significant boost”
yes, I agree with this (even if it partly ties with the safety of those wards. If they were safe wards, they probably hadn’t an intense campaign even last time)
Is it mere coincidence that the file has gone to the CPS today, the same day that, we are told, 9th May has been settled as the departure announcement date? Has the latter followed on from the former?
Still, lots of leaks and speculation to look forward to over the next few weeks and months over the contents of the report, with a decision on charges (fingers crossed…) being made just as GB is setting in.
Was ‘94-’97 as enjoyable as this from the Labour side of the fence?!
44. Sean T - tut, tut, tut………
Surely you know that if the ‘left-wing political elite’ approve of the ends - then murder, terrorism, torture and genocide is ok (think Soviet Union, South Africa, Ulster ..etc,etc).
BB
57 - “settling” that should be
re 57, now Bob, you are just being cruel
52 Surely it impinges Havel’s human rights if they don’t put up one to him too? And what about our human rights? Shouldn’t we all have statues?
Leicester has had a Nelson Mandela Park for some years.
Re 61, Peter, have you seen my photo’s?
Just between the Prison and the Rugby ground!
‘We need a Vaclav Havel Statue, not another Nelson MAndela.’
No chance. He opposed communism.
50 & 54 and I hear it’s not looking too good for General Custer either…. we await more news eagerly.
should have checked further up the thread…
64. Then up past the rugby ground to Filbert Street.
63 Shhh..Benedict. Not on the site please!
62. Harlow has a Nelson Mandela Avenue. I never knew he used to live in Harlow. Perhaps he moved to Soweto for a quiet life.
Hardly at the political cutting edge, but C have every chance of gaining Elmbridge from NOC.
Certainly should strengthen minority control and take it overall in 2008.
29 seats would give effective control with Mayor’s casting vote.
I would say C certain to gain 2 from Residents but may lose 1.
C could easily gain up to 5 seats overall but 3 more realistic.
The more important election in Surrey is the possible challenge to Nick Skellett as County leader, within the ruling C group.
Now with cross party support - the LD victor of the recent Claygate by-election on Elmbridge has publicly called for Roy Taylor to make a bid.
67…And adjacent to the University?
32 It’s not actually back of the queue as I understand it. In theory it is up first for debate next Friday, unless another bill comes out of committee in the meantime. But David Maclean may pull it, given that all he will be letting himself in for is more of the same from Baker, Hughes and co.
If you are tired of Mandela Park, you are tired of life.
Re 68, Peter,
69. Thinking back to my student days, this plethora of Mandela dedications is quite ironic. The ridiculous trot councils and student unions who proposed these namings did so in the belief that Mandela was a far left revolutionary who sooner or later was going to do Mugabe-style things to the evil white South Africans. As it happens, he turned out to be something very different - how disappointed his erstwhile fans must be.
Jack Straw for Chancellor is strenghening a lot on Betfair. Has something leaked out, or is it because of strong endorsements (e.g. on ‘This Week’, etc.)?
I’ve been very surprised at the number of wards in Canterbury where Labour are either not fielding a candidate or only fielding one in a multi-member ward, where in the past they have contested the ward. If this is similar in other areas of the south east, then we may well see the Lib Dems taking some Tory seats that had not previously been target wards. If Lib Dems can get Labour voters to vote for them we could see some surprises.
I now think that we could see Lib Dem gains (and holds) that we didn’t expect before.
70 - Nick Skellett has been re-elected as Surrey Tory Leader
75 et al…
I wonder why people find the plethora of marks of respect of mandela so odd. After all, I’ve never heard complaints about the statues of Lincoln in parliament square and manchester and edinburgh, the Kennedy memorials in Runnymede and marylebone road. I except the Roosevelt statues dotted around the place as he was, after all, a wartime ally.
can’t think what the difference is personally.
70/78. Thanks for this confirmation. It is quite typical of the local rag to run a story and then provide no follow up on the outcome.
I think you are well set to gain Hersham North and Ambleside.
I would throw in Weybridge North as your surprise gain as the area super-gentrifies - if such a thing is possible.
That would make 29 as I assume Molesey East is lost back to RA and Walton North is too close to call.
77. Perhaps the thought of running into ColinW on the campaign trail put possible Labour candidates off.
79 - I suspect the problem is less with Nelson Mandela himself and more with the sorts of people who name things after him.
80 - Actually, the vote was at 2.00pm this afternoon.
You’ll not be surprised that I’m spending all my time in Hersham North and the signs are encouraging….but there’s no complacency.
Hello there!
You asked to be sent a notifcation when something new was posted on
sjhoward.co.uk, and I’m happy to tell you that something called ‘Cash
for
Honours file handed over’ has just been published.
A basic text version of ‘Cash for Honours file handed over’ is included
at the
bottom of this email, but to view any associated video, audio, or
images you’ll
need to visit
http://sjhoward.co.uk/archive/2007/04/20/cash-for-honours-file-handed-over.
‘ello, ‘ello ‘ello
76 Will L
Yes, I noticed that. It’s a fairly recent move too, though it’s not the most liquid of markets so may not amount to a lot of betting. No, I know of no reason for it but am pleased to see it.
What I did notice is that for months the main bookmakers have had the price of Straw and Darling nailed to the floor. There’s been a huge discrepancy with the Betfair price. It suggests to me that they believe it’s a two-horse race. Personally I’d have thought Timms had a decent chance, but the money says otherwise.
67 fr - Filbert Street has been bulldozed - Leicester City moved to the Walkers Stadium AKA the Crisp Bowl . But Leicester City are likely to go down to division 1 (division 3 in old money) then go bust and leave the league all together.
Ah, the wonders of capitalism.
83.
Are you at liberty to divulge the margin of victory or unanimity?
A previous challenge was reported here as being close.
Apathy reigns in much of Walton and all incumbents will probably benefit, including your new recruit.
Apart from Molesey E, I’m assuming no change on other side of the Borough where RAs are much more dug in.
84 Hello Herbert! You have been absent so long I was beginning to worry about you.
Have you and your friend at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office anything new to report on the attempts to persuade Mr Miliband to stand against Our Gord? I checked out the Sunday Papers a couple of weeks back, as you suggested, but could find very little on it. Perhaps this weekend?
Cash for Honours, you say? It must be at least six months since it was first suggested here that the PM was about to be led away in handcuffs. Still, better late than never. (He has been arrested, hasn’t he?)
Have a good weekend. And let us know if you find anything interesting in the papers…You know …Miliband… ‘persuaded’ …that kind of thing.
I have invested a bit on Douglas Alexander for chancellor - a mate of Gordon Brown but relatively low profile.
I think a new face at No 11 would help Gordon appear fresh. No doubt if my theory is right, I will have picked the wrong outsider as per usual.
89 - Whilst I agree with the sentiment, Gordo is so paranoid about his Scottishness (hence all the ‘Britishness’ etc stuff) that he would never have someone who represents a Scottish constituency at 11. Think again… (Prawn Dimarolo…
)
89 Well if you have, Icarus, that will be two of us.
Any feedback on the cricket world cup?
90 Nah. Friend of Share Clort.
92 So that’s where Herbert has been!
88 - “Hello Herbert! You have been absent so long I was beginning to worry about you.”
Oh no, he hasn’t.
By the way, haven’t I seen someone link to the sjhoward website before?
Check out the merchandising link on his site, I’m astonished that he only sells merchandise with just a one name logo though. Missing out on marketing opportunities there I feel.
87 - Oops, I’ve been moderated :(. Anyway, upshot is I’d rather not on this public forum.
Yes, I too don’t yet sense much excitement, but then I didn’t last year either, and look what happened.
81 - Cantware, I think that you will find ColinW is a Liberal Democrat.
88. Ptp and others. I have been “persuaded” that Miliband will not run. Certainly very unlikely now given his repeated denials, barring bus accidents involving GB etc. So I have jettisoned my position on The Miliband today and bailed back into Brown.
Still have a Green Book but now make a very nice profit if Brown wins as opposed to a BIG profit if I’d stuck with The Miliband. If the Miliband drifts out to 20/1+ I will probably back him again just in case.
So I am no longer the voice in the wilderness for The Miliband.
96. Quite understand - the local rag will catch up next week.
I suspect some of the few Ambleside voters may vote for more candidates than they are entitled, out of confusion.
We had both the leaflets co-delivered by postman or private contractor.
O/T Techi tips needed:
I recently bought a Blackberry phone and although I can read the main article of pb.com it’s not letting me read the comments or sumbit a comment. Is this normal for Blackberry phones? I was under the impression that some bloggers can even post articles off their Blackberry phones. It’s a Blackberry Pearl and Orange network.
The main article is the best bit.
99 - Can I ask what leaflets these are? From the candidates or polling cards from the Council? If the former, surely they would have been hand delivered by the poor bloody infantry
98 Perversely, StJohn, I would say it’s not necessarily the end of the road for the Milibandwagon. Have a look at the mini-thread on Henry G’s blog.
re 9. I suppose it’s not inconceivable that the BNP could win in Birmingham Kinsgtanding as well.
I am afraid we will certainly lose Medway, Sean
Another byelection result from yesterday Vale Of Glamorgan Penarth Plymouth Con hold Con 724 LibDem 290 Lab 207 Plaid 89 - 2004 result 2 seats Con 1171/1064 Lab 570/521 LibDem 290 . This ward is in Cardiff S and Penarth
Sean re English Locals.
Vote share notional vote share as announced by BBC is based on a sample of 3 party contests. I agree with your figures broadly but think Tory share will be nearer 42% Lib dems 26% and Labour 23%.
Actual vote shares which is influenced by the large number of non mainstream cadidates will show lower shares for the main parties - my guess would be Tory 40,lab 20 and LibDem 24.
In terms of seats the main difference with sean is that I believe the lib dem will go backwards with losses in the South more than offsetting gains in the north.
Overall I give Libs 180 losses,Labour 790 lossses,Conservative 900 gains and other parties, 70 gains.
To your list of conservative gains I would add Brighton, East Riding,North Somerset,Maidenhead Bury, N Tyneside from The Unitary and metroplitan councils.In the districts additional to your list Colchester,Epping,Harborough,Harrogate,Ipswich,Newark,N kesteven,N warwicks,Northwqwilts, Nortmanpton,Scarborouugh,Sribble,Vale Of White Horse and Warwick.
On Lib dem gains I,m not convinced about Woking or Harborough.
I would add to losses to NOC in Malvern Hills,Oadby,Restormel,and S Norfolk.
On Labour losses I would add Nottingham and Wear valley but see Labour hoding on In Middlesborough.Labour wpould be left with Control of only 25 councils outside London
Overall a triumph for Mr C!
Roger H
105 Kent Tory
“we will certainly lose Medway”
Isn’t that what Bob Marshall-Andrews thought election night ?
106. Mark, LD were at 531 in 2004 (in between the 2 Lab candidates)
106. I imagine Hull and Bristol are particularly important for Hull East and Bristol West and Bristol East. But how are you doing in Newcastle. Theoretically all the City seats should be on your a radar but I think you’ll really need a crushing victory this year.
re 76. He’s not as tight as he was because I notice that having backed him at 4. I laid him at 2.84 a while ago. I’m currently all green on the chancellor market
107 - I would dance in the streets if that were a reality! Sadly I am thinking that Labour will not do nearly as badly as people are predicting. I would personally be happy with 500 Tory gains…
… as long as 2 or 3 of them came from Wakefield!
106. As I suspected the Tory vote is holding firm in CS&P. The Lib Dems were probably going to have to break Tory support to take it this time. I suspect you will come close thanks to a Labour collapse but not close enough. But I do think it was odd that you chose a Student. The Tories by contrast chose a very strong candidate, former Welsh Woman of the year 2005 no less.
109 Yes Andrea put in yesterday’s figure twice .
100. Henry G. I have a blackberry. I’m not very clued up with it but by clicking on B for bottom of page and then HTML it allows access to PBC and the comments pretty much as via normal internet access. Don’t know if that helps.
See 98 above. I have jettisoned Miliband. Have you revised your assessment of the situation following your thoughts last week?
110 Newcastle North wards were a crushing victory last year , Newcastle Central the most marginal of the 3 .
107 As I have said before there is no chance of overall Conservative control in Brighton , the Greens will scupper that but they will be largest party .
116. I know but Labour still looked pretty in 2005. I’m saying you need to crush again this year, and build a massive lead over Labour to shaken their hold on Newc Seats.
116. Newcastle Central (on new boundaries) should be pretty safish for Labout at next GE even if they’ll do bad overall.
118. I think he was talking about 2006 locals with LDs leading in Newcastle North and East wards (in North doing better than 2004, whilst in East having a smaller lead compared to 2004) with Central wards having Labour just ahead (by a small margin) even in 2006 locals
Won’t a large number of “Conservative unopposed” potentially reduce their “percentage share” of the vote because they won’t be used as atypical seats. Or have i misunderstood how the %share is calculated?
120. correction, LDs just head in Central wards, not Lab (less than 100 votes). I went by memory. It was practically almost a tie anyway.
120. You’re right, but the Labour culture is so entrenched that I think they have to hammer Labour every year until the election to bring any of the seats up. BTW How does Bristol East look. Can theselocals help them.
This Plaid result looks very strong. Could 1999 hapen again
Mr Senior how do you do candidate selection. I’m still puzzled by some your choices in Wales.
No one has mentioned West Devon - certainty to go to Tories from NOC.
123.”This Plaid result looks very strong. Could 1999 hapen again”
If you’re referring to the Rhondda BC one, it’s an 8.1% swing and the ward is in Cynon Valley constituency
103. Yikes Ptp! It’s never over ’til its over.
To clarify my comments above, when I say I have jettisoned my position on the Miliband that isn’t strictly true. He still wins me a sizeable sum and more than Brown but much less than this morning. However I was facing a very modest profit on Brown this morning and now the book is much more balanced with a good profit available in the event of the most likely outcome. I no longer have all my eggs(profit) in one basket.
I still feel that Miliband can win if he finds his backbone but reports in the press that he has told Blair’s camp that he isn’t standing don’t suggest its likely to me. As I’ve said before in my view the gigger hurdle of the two is whether he stands because he will only stand if he has a big chance of success. Despite Henry G’s thoughts I think his odds of success are now at least 12/1.
125. If you know the Cynon Vallet it is the epitome of the safe Labour seat held even in 199 quite comfortably. That means reasonable to assume they are in bigger trouble in other Valleys seats. 8.1% is a good swin for that Seat.
123 All the Bristol East wards have elections this year so that should give us a good idea ( not all wards are contested every year ) . Sorry not privy as to how WA candidate selection was done .
127. “held even in 199 quite comfortably”
It wasn’t a comfortable hold in 1999: they just held it by 3.2%
“That means reasonable to assume they are in bigger trouble in other Valleys seats”
You said they were in troubles even when they did well in the Rhondd and Caerphilly.
The Rhondda AM sounds quite confident about his chances on his blog anyway. Then take it how you prefer it!
56 Second point is more significant than the first I think.
121 I think the calculation is based on a sample of wards contested by all three main parties. So probably not. Obviously it will affect aggregate votes, but these tend to be smaller wards.
107 Malvern Hills is NOC already .
Great result for our team in Cynon valley we will probably be up in RCT but we woke Labour up in 99 and they are better organised these days. Our surprise results this time will be in North Wales combined with a very strong performance in the Mid and west region.
Am hearing good reports from Neath but not hearing much else from the South.
89, 90 - Douglas Alexander or Dawn Primarolo for Chancellor.
Not a chance of a chance. He’s too young and Scottish, she’s too nothing at all. Ken Clarke and Brown (along with Callaghan and Healey) have shown that broad policy strokes combined with bluster are all that’s required to be Chancellor. No expertise required. Yet it is a great office of state so you don’t give away to any Douglas or Dawn. The next Chancellor will either be a trusted Brownian (Darling/Balls) or a Labour oldtimer who’s owed (Straw/Hain).
133. Maybe he meant Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster for Dawn!
133, 134 -
Sorry - I wasn’t being serious about Dim Dawn - thought it was such an obvious non-starter nobody would get confused…
Realistically, It’s Jack Straw’s if he wants it (but I suspect that he doesn’t and wants Foreign Sec when it’s a proper job rather than a gopher under Blair). It might be Miliband’s in exchange for not running (a geeky persona wouldn’t be so bad as Chancellor, and Ed Balls would be doing all the hard work behind the scenes anyway)
135 - I get the impression that Miliband is a bit too honest, or at least tries too hard to affect honesty, to be Chancellor.
Too young? He’s only 2 years younger than Miliband.
We will see.
Re: Orginal Article
Of the councils you have listed I believe that:
Plymouth: Lab loss to NOC
Shepway: Lib Dem loss to NOC
South Gloucestershire: NOC
Suffolk Mid: NOC
Hyndburn: Con loss to NOC
Oldham: Lib Dem gain from Lab
I would also point out that you seemed to have missed North Warwickshire off your list of Con gains.
Wondering if anyone saw McCain’s embarrassing, stumbling performance on Sky, singing Bomb Iran to the Beach Boys ‘Barbara Ann’?
Is there a credible challenger to Giuliani? Nobody so far has come close - McCain (see above), Romney (not liked), Gingrich (too divisive) Thompson (too diffident). All the social conservatives must realise that time is running out, anyone that they are likely to try and draft in at this stage? Any value anywhere in the betting?
138 Shepway is NOC now with Con as largest party not LibDem controlled . I think they will be 1 seat short of overall control in Oldham
I need a recap of Scotland count.
Are the machines ok now? (IIRC in Lothian there were too many lists and the machines weren’t able to count all of them. Has the problem been resolved or will they count by hand?)
Are the Scot local elections counted over-night or on Friday?
115. Thanks Stjohn. Working now.
134 - apocryphally (though it’s not very likely) when Churchill became Chancellor of the Exchequer in 1924, he came out of No 10 thinking that Baldwin had offered him the Chancellorship of the Duchy of Lancaster.
141 - So far as I know they are working OK. Despite the new technology it means that the first declaration will likely be later than usual and is likely to be Glasgow Kelvin rather than Hamilton South (which is usually the first Scottish seat to declare).
Not 100% sure about the council election but IIRC they are going to be counted over-night.
144. Thanks Max. Kelvin can be an interesting seat, so it’s not like having Sunderland South as first declaration.
107 - not a chance in North Tyneside I’m afraid. We will likely gain one seat from Labour but no other seat is remotely in reach. There are at least a couple of Conservative held seats which are actually very vulnerable and it’s not impossible that we could go backwards.
In any event, North Tyneside has a Labour elected Mayor and so even if the Conservatives gain a majority of the seats, it’ll still be a Labour-controlled council.
This looks like another attempted bribe: and if it is such a brilliant idea why only in Wales. Indeed, why do these goodies not come the way of English voters? Taken for granted for too long?
http://icwales.icnetwork.co.uk/0100news/0200wales/tm_headline=brown-pledges-to-extend-child-trust-funds%26method=full%26objectid=18936527%26siteid=50082-name_page.html
126 OK, St John. Got it.
Not in the mainstream but Topry splits and Lib Dem by election gains could see the Consevtaives going back In Twekesbury and the Lib Dems being at least the larges party
Do you think Brown realises that people outside Wales might hear what he says? Apparently the asymmetrical devolution is a good thing as it represents a “healthy diversity”.
About the the loss of pensions by workers whose employers went out of business, he said every one of the 125,000 people affected would receive help from an £8bn fund. So they get better treatment in Wales? Must do as in England large numbers of these people seem ineligible for aid, aren’t they?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/6575279.stm
144 isn’t it brilliant the way automation of a process seems to slow it down? I helped design and build the first web application system for the passport office - farcical, you fill out an online form which somebody then prints off and puts in the post to you.
If the tories gain over 500 seats I’ll be very happy. I think Vale of the White Horse is going to go blue.
Miscellaneous catching-up after 5 hours on doorsteps and a lot of media stuff on Boots today.
- May 9: yes, my post on this wasn’t a coincidence. In general I know what I’m talking about on PLP-related issues, but I’d heard it at one remove and thought it wasn’t up to me to do more than use it as an example.
- Betfair: can’t be bothered to scan all the different replies they’ve given people! I don’t think they have a financial interest, it’s just that the subject is of marginal interest to them so they’ve not given all staff a definitive ruling. It’s an annoying human trait that people who don’t know something (’where is the fish department?’) confidently give you any old answer anyway.
- Canvass returns generally not much change from 2003 as usual, except for one horrid pocket on a street that we discovered nobody had had a Labour leaflet for years - unsurprisingly, half of them had switched to the LDs. Urgh - wait till I find out who was supposed to be delivering there… Around 1 in 3 LibDems and a scattering of Tories said they’d vote for me at the GE, though that’s obviously prone to ‘be nice to the chap on your doorstep’ syndrome. FWIW, the background was usually de-ideologisation - ‘you’re all much the same so I’ll vote for you as you do the job OK’.
144- It depends on each authority! My Council, South Lanarkshire are counting both through the night- Returning Officer advised yesterday that Hamilton South Parliamentary seat will be expected to declare at 1AM (Probably the first seat of the night to announce- has been historically under manual counts) East Kilbride at 2AM; Glasgow Rutherglen at 3AM, Clydesdale 5AM, Council count will start circa 5AM, should all be over by 7AM- a long long night-my ward is the 17th out of 20 set to be declared so I wont have a result ’till nearer 7AM I guess!!
153.
I think we will all have to bring some coffee perhaps somethings stronger. Or just catch the early bus!
153 & 154 - Do either of you know if recounts are going to be allowed or is the new system considered infallible.
re 153. Why? Is it really in the interests of having an accurate count using a new method with the tellers half asleep.
153. Thanks.
I guess that I will spend that Friday in bed
The system itself is not being used to it’s full extent, or so we are told. Great trust is placed in the system and it was made clear that the possibility of a recount was pretty much slim to none. Humans can make an 100 vote error, but a margin of 100 votes this time round at Holyrood would probably not result in a recount.
Don’t look at this pic if you don’t want to risk nightmares tonight, but it’s apparently Mandelson dancing at the Indian Party during the Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum this January:
http://cache.gettyimages.com/xc/73600763.jpg?v=1&c=NewsMaker&k=2&d=17A4AD9FDB9CF1935B3684F2B7A07BEB791595C3C0C74427
Interesting Guardian piece. Brown has 217 MPs ready to nominate him. 95 are undecided and 35 have refused to nominate him.
Brown’s supporters think Meacher’s bid in dead in the water with McDonnell doing better but being short of 44 signatures (apparently he can be in 30’s). Brown’s camp is trying to convince MPs not to nominate McD (why? I had thought Brown has nothing to fear from a McD’s bid).
MPs who are thought not to be willing to nominate Brown are:
John Hutton, Stephen Byers, Alan Milburn, Adam Ingram, Joan Ryan, Pat McFadden, Claire Ward, Jim Murphy, and Janet Anderson.
(Not particularly surprising names)
ops, I forgot the link
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labourleadership/story/0,,2062309,00.html
To show your support for Alan Johnson please add the following banner to your blog.
160. ops, 93 undecided, not 95.
Meacher is thought to have just 3 supporters.
And Hilary Armstrong is also among the ones not nominating Gordon.
Now being my 4th comment in a row, I retire in my dark room until someone else posts
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/theeditors/2007/04/how_you_can_help.html
163. “Meacher is thought to have just 3 supporters.”
Including himself, I assume?
165. Steven, probably just himself, Simpson and Hopkins…
I’m suprised at the figure for McDonnell. I am torn between wanting him to get on the ballot paper through sheer bloody-mindedness. On the other hand I’d have thought he has chance he has nil chance of getting close to Brown and the venture is entirely pointless.
160 - Is Adam Ingram a noted Blairite? And/Or is there a connection with his role as Armed Forces Minister?
167. Henry. The piece says “most optimistic suggestion”, so he can have less.
168. It’s called the ‘payroll vote’!
167 - I don’t see how it could possibly be called “pointless”. If the left is ever going to regain influence in the Labour Party they are going to have to prove that they have a firm body of support. At the very least getting on the ballot paper would do that (assuming such support exists). In fact, by standing McDonnell may ultimately be able to claim more support from the left than actually exists - by piggybacking on anti-Brown discontent.
And Ken’s always hovering in the background…
168?
170?
171. I know Alex, but there’s got to be a level of support he must reach to avoid demonstrating the weakness of his position. If McDonnell gets less than 20% it’s not good, under 15% it’s a bit of a disaster and he actually harms the cause of the left.
Actually can those numbers add up?
175. ops, I clicked before finishing to write?
Where did they put McD/MM supporters? Split among the 92 undecided and the 35 not willing to nominate GB? Is the 35 a mix of Blairites and Jeremy Corbyn?
217+92+35=344. Labour has 352 MPs+Speaker Martin and Sylvia Heal
174 - It’s pretty unlikely that he would get that small an amount though, isn’t it? Plenty of scope for a sizeable protest vote if the result is seen as a foregone conclusion. Also the make-up of the electoral college means that not everyone will be voting with Labour Party Electoral success at the top of their agenda.
What an election between McDonnell and Brown would do would allow McDonnell to lay down a critique of government and Labour Party direction. In the absence of any other critique being offered it will be a critique which will only grow in acceptance should Labour electoral catastrophe follow.
An extraordinary article in the Times. Here’s the gist:
“Angela Merkel was accused yesterday of planning to smuggle key parts of the failed European constitution into a new slimmed-down treaty after a letter to EU leaders in which she suggested a series of presentational changes was leaked.
The German Chancellor listed 12 discussion points for a new treaty, including a new name for the proposed EU foreign minister, as well as the document itself, to make the idea more palatable to sceptical nations such as the British, Czechs and Dutch.
Tony Blair insisted in interviews yesterday that a new EU treaty would not require the referendum he first promised in 2004 because the revised version would not involve constitutional changes.
However, in her letter, seen by The Times, Mrs Merkel showed that she was determined to make only minimal changes to the EU Constitution rejected by French and Dutch voters in 2005.
She said: “Every effort will have to be made to restrict change to what is absolutely necessary to reach an overall agreement and to ensure ratification by all member states.”
She then posed a dozen key questions, including: “How do you assess the proposal made by some member states to use different terminology without changing the legal substance — for example with regard to the title of the treaty, the denomination of legal acts, and the union’s minister of foreign affairs.”
In the same way, she asks whether to “replace the full text of the Charter of Fundamental Rights by a short cross reference having the same legal value”. As proposed by Mr Blair, the replacement for the Constitution could be presented as a treaty that amends the Nice Treaty of 2001, she said, “with the necessary presentational changes resulting from the return to the classical method of treaty changes”.
Unbelievable. They are nakedly - brazenly - trying to bring back a Treaty already voted down in two states, and this time trying to avoid a referendum by minor cosmetic changes. Utterly disgraceful. If you believe in Europe - and many good, honest people do - you cannot want your project to proceed in this fashion: by deception of the people, by treachery, evasion and sleight of hand.
Just give us a vote. That’s all we want. Whoever wins, wins. But let us vote.
Blair is the most disgusting man in the history of modern British politics. May he rot in Hell, if Hell will have him.
155. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/6566563.stm
….
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labourleadership/story/0,,2062309,00.html?gusrc=rss&feed=1
I note there’s no one even suggesting any smidgeon of a Tory move forward in a large number of major cities up and down the land. This, together with their inability to find any kind of sensible candidate for the London mayor elections, makes me think that however well they’re doing nationally (more on an anti-Blair than a pro-Cameron mood), they’re many miles from winning a General Election.
181. “they’re many miles from winning a General Election.”
zebidee, the problem for labour is that they are just a few miles from losing a GE.
178: you want disgusting, seanT? Post 44.
183. Zzzz. You want disgusting, Nick Palmer? How about that war you voted for, the war you voted for more than almost any other MP in the Commons, the war which has led to half a million dead people, and the disgrace of the entire country? Eh? The war for which you, and your Labour friends, have yet to apologise? The war which has shamed us all? The war which you personally have tried to prevent an inquiry into? I just wonder where your standards of disgustingness lie? Mm? How about half a million rotting corpses at your doorstep? Nick? Is that disgusting enough? no? what does it take? two million? three? Seven? why havent you resigned in shame? why? where does “disgusting” kick in? You stupid silly man.
Back on topic. Tony Blair is, I have now realised, a man who mistakes lying to the people for leadership. There is a difference, Tone. But it’s probably too late for you to learn it.
Brown in to 1.17.
Almost his shortest ever (just $6k out of $1,864k has previously been matched at 1.15 or 1.16).
Sorry Nick, Nelson mandela is a good man but he’s not a saint. Some people, particularly on the left, are determined to canonise him while wiping all ANC crimes from the history books.
SeanT was offering a necessary corrective to the Dianafication of Mandela. Good for him.
183. Taking away the extremely blunt prose, he does have a point about the sainthood of Mandela. Great man as he is in some ways he and his associates weren’t exactly clean but you can barely criticise Mandela.
On the plus side, apparently Learning Teaching Scotland sent out advice to schools in its area suggesting that pupils and teachers do not stare at Moslems because it’s a form of discrimination.
The people who most threaten this country and its social wellbeing are less some guys with bomb belts or some fascists marching with union jacks and more white middle class people who have nothing more to worry about than bullshit like the above and who refuse to face real issues and instead grandtand with righteous old bollocks. The reason they are a bigger threat is because the latter actually have more power and authority than either of the former.
There will be a point where people will get really fed up with this kind of crap and the backlash is probably not going to be pretty. If governments wish to assist social cohesion one element has to be stamping crap like this out of public bodies.
I’d just like to add that Mandela’s shirts are certainly criminal….
For those latenight pbers who can bear the horror, but are unaware of the history, here is Nick Palmer’s voting record on Iraq.
http://www.publicwhip.org.uk/policy.php?id=975
I hope that link works. Suffice to say he is in the top few percent in favour of invasion, a consistent and uncritical supporter of the war that cost half a million dead for no reason.
More remarkable still, is that he is against an inquiry - one of the most vehemently against - several years AFTER this same war has been proven to be the most grotesque and lamentable clusterf*ck since the orgies of Caligula.
Here, I think, is a man whose opinion of “digustingness” is somewhat lacking in the self-knowledge department.
Try again:
http://www.publicwhip.org.uk/mp.php?mpid=1462&dmp=219
That’ll have to do. G’nite!
186. No, Mandela is not a saint but he was an incredibly good man who persistently chose the way of openness and reconciliation. Yes, there are reasonable criticisms you can make of him, but no more than the people the Right idolises: Churchill, Lincoln, De Gaulle etc. The only two political leaders of greater moral standing that I can think of are Martin Luther King and Mohandas Gandhi, but I can imagine SeanT getting equally upset with statues of them.
“Police have recommended that two of Tony Blair’s closest allies face charges as part of the cash-for-honours scandal, in a final file submitted to the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) yesterday.
Lord Levy, the Prime Minister’s fundraiser, and Ruth Turner, No 10’s director of government relations, will wait at least three months for a decision, The Times understands. ”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article1685270.ece
190. Egregious piffle. As is clear to anyone with ‘arf a brain, i.e. not the Honourable Member for Broxtowe, I am not criticising Mandela per se, more the absurd idolisation of him by the British left.
Ys, Nelson Mandela was a fine leader of his people, and a brave opponent of apartheid. But he’s not a saint, he’s just another politician, albeit an unusually principled one. So why do lefties like Ken Livingstone and Nick P go so wet at the crotch when they think about him?
Here’s why. It’s because the battle against apartheid was the last time the left felt good about itself, the last time they felt morally pure. Since then we’ve had the fall of communism, the victory of Thatcherism, the triumph of globalism - and the New Labour tragedy of Iraq. In honouring Mandela, lefties are really honouring a nostalgic vision of themselves, as younger better people, before they were sullied by the world.
It’s almost sad, when you think about it.
186/7: Sure, nothing wrong with someone criticising Mandela, but that’s not what post 44 does. The objectionable part of 44 is not this, nor the general distancing from pleasure at the end of apartheid (he’s entitled to his opinion, if that’s what it is), but IMO the “joke” about ‘blind and crippled black orphans’ necklacing people. Takes all taste, I suppose.
191. If this is true then we are faced with an interesting situation before we even get to charges being levied (pun unintended)
This type of story will come into the public domain meaning that if the CPS don’t go ahead there’ll be claims of a fix.
193. Yes, it takes all tastes, Nick. Some of us, after voting for an illegal war which has - yes - killed half a million people, might find it slightly tasteless to vote against an inquiry into the same war. Indeed some of us might find it distasteful if we didn’t… ooohh… you know… resign? Mmm? Feel that shame and guilt thingy? you remember? conscience before career? remember that?
Shall I spell it? Conscience? C - o - n - s - c - i…
Oh what’s the point. This man is an MP. Silly me.
188 - Half a million
187. Excellent post Yokel and I agree whole heartedly. In the last 4 years the BNP have been trying to build up a present in the North East, and up till now they have thankfully been unsuccessful.
This kind of interference by learning Teaching Scotland is neither warranted or helpful, and is quite frankly insulting to many Scots!
Today the postie brought a blitz of election leaflets from all parties and I handed them to two of my brood who are interested in politics, needless to say the BNP effort was torn up and thrown in the bin by them where it belongs!
“There will be a point where people will get really fed up with this kind of crap and the backlash is probably not going to be pretty. If governments wish to assist social cohesion one element has to be stamping crap like this out of public bodies.”
It is exactly this kind of interference which creates a resentment that did not previously exist!
196. Actually, the death toll in Iraq was 650,000, in October last year, going by the most robust available estimates - ACCORDING TO THE GOVERNMENT’S OWN SCIENTISTS.
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/foi/story/0,,2045915,00.html
I guess they could be lying. Heck, maybe everyone’s lying and all them dead Baghdadis we keep seeing onscreen are crash test dummies laid out by George Galloway with a ketchup squeezer.
194. The story in the is even stronger:
“A file demanding the prosecution of Labour fundraiser Lord Levy, Downing Street aide Ruth Turner and millionaire Sir Christopher Evans was handed to the Crown Prosecution Service.”
As a direct consequence of the war.. I think not
194. The story in the Mail is even stronger:
“A file demanding the prosecution of Labour fundraiser Lord Levy, Downing Street aide Ruth Turner and millionaire Sir Christopher Evans was handed to the Crown Prosecution Service.”
200. Give me strength, What would be acceptable for Tony Blair and Nick Palmer et al? 300,000 dead? Quarter of a million dead? Would 400,000 be “kinda OK, considering”? Shall we say 200,000 on the nail, she’s yours for a fiver?
And of course you - Rob - know better than the Lancet. “As a direct consquence of the war… i think not”. Chortle chortle. Pull the other one. Etc etc. Nope, you’ve obviously lived in Baghdad and Fallujah over the last year, you know best.
200 rob Yes, the figure was from, I think,the Lancet, and has been recently judged as ‘reasonable’ by some US authority I believe.
‘Large increase’ in postal votes
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6577169.stm
With the knowledge that we have, the first thought that crosses my mind is that voter fraud is increasing. What shambles of a system are we creating? That this is also being counted by computer just adds insult to injury. Why does a government want to increase such suspicion?
203. Witan, I recently saw an article which indicated that the relevant authorities within the government and the USA now accepted that the figures quoted by Seant were probable correct. Unfortunately I cannot link to the article.
Re 160, Andrea, Brown wants to make sure Mike Smithson owes me a tenner.
On the other hand, he is a paranoid control freak who will not risk a free vote.
You chose which is more likely.
I only had a tenner with Mike, because I knew it wasn’t a gamble.
204. ukpaul, have a look at the link I posted @179, I totally agree with your concerns on this issue, and I think that this government will not be content until the once without reproach voting system we had resembles that of a Banana Republic. Talk about taking something that was not broken and trying to trash it until it is regarded as unsafe.
203. Positively my last post. The best way to estimate the dead in Iraq is to compare it with other civil wars in recent decades - like Spain, S0malia, Russia, America, Lebanon, etc. All those wars led to deaths, over five years or less, of between 2-20% of the populace. Civil wars are uniquely bloody.
Iraq, which has proved at least as nasty as any of those wars, is said to have suffered 650,000 dead, which is barely 2% of the population over four years. Thus 650,000 is probably at the lower end of the scale.
The only way Iraq could have avoided deaths on the scale of all other civil wars in history would be if it was a uniquely peaceful society. What with the brutalisation of the people by Saddam, the wicked division on sectarian lines, the widespread availability of weapons, the savage invasion of Shock and Awe, the involvement of violent foreign powers, I don’t think this is really the case.
Grim as it may be, we have to accept that the death toll in Iraq is almost certainly in the mid six figures, and possibly heading very fast for seven. Anything else is extremely unlikely, by historical standards.
re 192, ACM, which is broadly what I said earlier.
191. “Police have recommended that two of Tony Blair’s closest allies face charges as part of the cash-for-honours scandal, in a final file submitted to the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) yesterday.”
Gosh, if they’d investigated Watergate, I presume they’d have recommended prosecuting Ehrlichmann and Haldeman.
SeanT you do talk piffle on Iraq!
209. Which is the list of three names that the Sunday Times published. (Sorry, no link at this time of night!)
194: and that’s the beauty of it all - the gift that keeps on giving!
I shall find it most gratifying to see all those Labour MPs and activists who spent the mid-90s jabbering on about “Tory sleaze” being forced to suffer the humiliation of senior Labour figures and donors being dragged before the criminal courts - and all this in the early days of Brown’s now seemingly-doomed premiership.
Re 212, ACM, well you could have read it on my blog earlier today here:
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/2007/04/cash-for-peerages-file-handed-to-cps.html
or indeem my blog passim.
Re 211, RikW, no he doesn’t.
Benedict he certainly does - using dubious figure of casualties! He is like a cracked record!
208. Sean T.
The civil war currently raging in Iraq is as a consequence of the unjustified foreign intervention of the US and their allies. The antecedence for this war surely makes it different to the other civil wars that you cite? Are the mortality rate predictions that you make therefore necessarily comparable or equivalent to the other civil wars, given their different histories?
204. Typical journalism - the article gives no comparative dates so is totally meaningless.
Quote: “Requests are up 550% in Middlesbrough, 400% in Fife and Lanarkshire, 600% in Flintshire and more than 200% in Luton and Somerset, the survey found”
So they are up 550% in Middlesbrough compared to when? Last year? But were there any local elections there last year? If not, comapred to the GE in 2005? Or compared to the last local elections in 2003/04? Who knows?
The article is totally meaningless.
It was widely reported that there was a big increase in postal votes at the last GE. I am as concerned as previous posters about postal votes so hope the article is comparing to the last local elections in 2003/04.
Also, all people with permanent postal votes had to reapply in February 2007 giving an up to date signature and their date of birth - this should have cut out a lot of previously fraudulent postal votes.
Re 215, RikW,regrettably the figures he cites are not body counts but the methods used to calculate them are scientifically valid.
What is more there is no doubt Iraq is a mess that it need not have been.
It is inaccurate and misleading to describe the situation in Iraq as a Civil War. It isnt, anymore than the so called “troubles” in Northern Ireland were a civil war. Two distinct disparate groups in Iraq are fomenting two quite different insurgencies - a Sunni faction loyal to the old regime, do not like the current democratic settlement - and a Shia insurgency backed by Iran that would like a regime modelled on Iran’s.
What is most likely to allow a civil war to develop would be the precipitate withdrawal of the UN mandated coalition forces!!
It’s also worth mentioning that medical technology has advanced a great deal since the American or Spanish civil wars (among those listed by seanT). Methods of war have changed a lot in the past 50 years too. The major result of this is that death tolls are likely to be somewhat lower - it’s more likely for soldiers and civilians alike to be injured than killed outright, and wounds which would have killed them in the past can now be survived. This has already been observed in the US military - while the number killed is historically fairly low, considerably more have come back from Iraq alive but seriously injured.
That’s to say nothing about the morality or justification of the war, of course - only to provide an explanation for what seanT sees as a suspiciously low death toll.
The truth, of course, is that none of us know precisely (or indeed even approximately) how many have lost their lives in Iraq, and I doubt we ever will.
215. The frightening thing is that Seant’s figures are correct!
Just look at the news everyday from Iraq and add up the deaths just in the last few months never mind the last 3 years, they are truly shocking. Thank God neither I or my family are exposed to that kind of odds daily!
218 - Benedict I profoundly disagree with you. The methods used are back of a fag packet and range enormously. There is no doubt that many people are dying, due to the evil Iranian regime’s provision of more sophisticated killing technology but the talk of almost seven figures is fantasy land.
Have you forgotten how many died due to Saddams attacks on neighbouring countries and how many of his own people he murdered?
221 - simple mathematics will show that SeanT’s figures are nonsense. He is suggesting that over 600,000 people have died, and maybe even a million. That would mean an average of 600 plus people died every day since the removal of Saddam. Since in the first year or so after Spring 2003 things were pretty quiet, that would mean that way over 600 a day would have to have been dying in the last couple of years. That simply has not been happening and there are not the bodies to support those numbers.
Yes there have been some “spectaculars”, most recently the killing of 150 people in one incident but they are the exception rather than the rule. There is no way that 600+ people are killed every single day! And that would be the bottom end of SeanT’s numbers.
I have personal experience of Iraq and have been all over south and central Iraq. These numbers SeanT quotes are garbage!
Re 219,RikW, “It is inaccurate and misleading to describe the situation in Iraq as a Civil War.”
Well to be fair they are never civil!
” It isnt, anymore than the so called “troubles” in Northern Ireland were a civil war. Two distinct disparate groups in Iraq are fomenting two quite different insurgencies ”
Yes I am with you there.
“- a Sunni faction loyal to the old regime, do not like the current democratic settlement - ”
No that is crap. There are three separate strands of Sunni insurgency, one, old government, two, Sunni “supremacists”/The “we don’t want to lose our own power brigade and Al Quada. (Who are also anti democratic etc.)
“and a Shia insurgency backed by Iran that would like a regime modeled on Iran’s.”
Well, some of them are closer to Iran than others rather than being one homogeneous group, but it is a complicated bit of power play.”
“What is most likely to allow a civil war to develop would be the precipitate withdrawal of the UN mandated coalition forces!! ”
Well, what is now going on is not that far from a civil war, but you are right cutting an running is going to make it worse.
It would have been much better if a brain dead ignorant half wit was in charge of winning the peace, rather than Donald Rumsfeld because obviously they would have done a better job.
223.RikW, don’t forget to include all those who have died through lack of security, safe water, heat, food and basic medical supplies.
We all seemed happy to preach calculated figures for the amount of deaths caused by Saddam’s regime or UN sanctions, yet we quibble over the equally shocking statistics caused since we got involved!
Benedict “No that is crap. There are three separate strands of Sunni insurgency, one, old government, two, Sunni “supremacists”/The “we don’t want to lose our own power brigade and Al Quada. (Who are also anti democratic etc.)”
One and two are essentially the same and making common cause. You are somewhat naive if you think that “Al Qaeda” are distinct from your first two. There is no such institution as “Al Qaeda” as such. It is a loose network of groupings and individuals sharing some key common objectives. In Iraq it was more Al Zarqarwi than Al Qaeda. They all overlap and blend in together!
Re 222, RikW, The figures are always going to be back of a fag packet, that is as good as it gets! Do you seriously for a microsecond think that precisely 6 million Jews died in the Holocaust? Of course not, it is about that figure as far as can be estimated after much argument over which fag packet is most correct.
As for the evil Iranians, can I point out that it is the absolute responsibility of an occupying power to guarantee security and given the nature of Iran before hand, that it might not have been a bad idea to patrol the border?
For more see this:
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/2006/08/iraq-why-are-we-in-this-mess.html
219″It is inaccurate and misleading to describe the situation in Iraq as a Civil War.” RikW I would say that Iraq slipped over the edge into civil war in the last 12 months but nobody is ready to admit they failed!!
As for worsening situation and increasing daily death toll in the last few weeks, it is interesting that it follows an increase in American troop levels!
Re 226, RikW, having grown up with Iraqi Sunnis, there is a difference between Sunni dominance and Wahabism of Al Quada but them I don’t expect you to understand that. (You are doing much better than most MP’s though who don’t understand the difference between Shia and Sunni)
227 - Benedict I agree with your second point. As someone who was in the Foreign Office’s Iraq Directorate at the time I know how the UK argued many corners but were ignored by Bremer and his masters in Washington!!
228 - I still disagree with you that it is a civil war. The mass of the civilian population are not taking up arms against one another. There have been several “spectaculars” but the best information I can now get suggests that there has been a sharp fall away in the number of incidents recently.
Re 228, ChrisD, “As for worsening situation and increasing daily death toll in the last few weeks, it is interesting that it follows an increase in American troop levels!”
Difficult to tell at this stage. It would have been better to have enough to do the job in the first place, but perhaps better late than never.
229 - Benedict - I DO understand the difference but my point is that they are not distinct in Iraq in their operations and the insurgency they are fomenting. There is massive cross-over and co-operation between the various Sunni groupings whether they be old regime loyalists, Al Zarqarwi network (as was) or Sunni supremacists!
Per The Times, new final French polls:
Sarkozy 29/30
Royal 24/26
Le Pen 17/17
Bayrou 13/14
I think these are new but apologies if in fact they have been previously posted on this site. They look particularly bad for Bayrou.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article1685289.ece
Re 232, RikW, if you read my article I linked to, I think you will agree with most of it.
As for the three cooperating, they may at the moment because my enemies enemy is is my friend, but the Wahabies of Al quadi can and will be separated from the rest.
And now I really have to go to bed!
RikW lets talk some semantics
New Scientist had the following Enormous death toll of Iraq invasion revealed
Some debate here
Debating the Body Count in Iraq
Verified body count at http://www.iraqbodycount.org/
So minimum is about 62,000 with verified deaths and maximum about 10-20 times this. Verification of deaths during a “civil war” is very difficult.
re 220 Yes Medical Technology has come a long way but only to those who can access it, not likely in most parts of Iraq unless you are in the American/British etc forces. Iraqi doctors are thinner on the ground than Belgian troops. Also Weapons Technology has also improved somewhat and the ability to wipe out tens of people with one bomb is commonplace.
231. “Difficult to tell at this stage. It would have been better to have enough to do the job in the first place” Benedict, on this issue we agree. “but perhaps better late than never” this is where I totally disagree with you, I think that the shocking further escalation of violence in recent weeks is directly linked to the increase in American troop levels.
Anyone fancy a wander out and about in Basra or outside the green zone in Baghdad in an armoured vehicle and a bullet proof vest and helmet, or would it make you feel like the target?
Sean, I have recently moved part-time to Bournemouth and am helping out a bit. The bare numbers make it look a bit of a job to take control from the LDs. Wonder which wards you think we should take from them? Also if you (or anyone else) have any info on how the campaign is going?
Sean F
……..a bit late, but add Barrow to your list from NOC, and probably Eden from Ind. Carlisle to remain NOC even though David Cameron visited on Thursday to have photographs with candidates. Not sure whether SLDC Con candidates were told of the opportunity, but it didn’t permeate down to Barrow.
Coming in late on this, but SeanT is going with the scientific facts, as best available (can’t be much more reputable than “The Lancet”), and those querying the 655000 are either in the “flat earth” brigade, or seeking to spread propaganmda.
The 655000 was arrived at using the same statistical methods as the 6 million jews during ww2.
106 - just realised that’s the ward my godfather lives in!
It’s all kicking off in Derby (again)…
Conservatives are threatening Lib Dems with legal action over a leaflet in Derby’s Mickleover ward where the result is going to be close.
http://www.thisisderbyshire.co.uk/displayNode.jsp?nodeId=126189&command=newPage
Ed.
Hurrah, nice to see Gedling on somebodies prediction list for the first time I can remeber as for the most part a critical battle in my little suburban area of Notts has been virtually invisible.
I believe we Tories are now on course to gain Gedling from what I have seen of the campaign, as the Tories are doing most of the work in the key maginals (Newstaead and the ST Mary’s and Bonnington areas of Arnold) and Labour are putting large resources into areas that on paper should be safe (Like my own ward of Netherfield and Colwick and Carlton Hill), as if they seem fearful of a total meltdown if they don’t.
If this happens it would be a painful defeat for Labour Council leader Ivan Gollop and MP Vernon Coaker, couldn’t happen to a nicer pair… (end sarcasm)
107 I should certainly have added East Riding of Yorkshire and Barrow to my list of likely Conservative gains. I was under the impression that Scarborough and Harrogate were already Conservative-held. I think Brighton & Hove is far too left wing these days to produce a Conservative overall majority.
I don’t think we’ll quite take Bury this year, although I think it’s likely next year. North Tyneside will remain under Labour control, so long as the Mayor is Labour.
WRT South Gloucs, I’m relying on advice from someone who’s well-informed about it.
243 Sean , Harrogate has annual elections , the Conservatives lost overall control last year current state of councillors is Con 27 LibDem 22 Ind 5 . If results follow last years there will be 2 more LibDem gains from Con this year and 1 Ind gain from LibDem .
Torbay although LibDems have the largest number of councillors is governed by the Mayor and the 8 Conservative councillors ( was 9 but 1 defected to the LibDems . They seem to be pretty unpopular and although at one time it looked like the Conservatives would gain a large number of seats this year , that does not seem so likely now but they should remain in control via the Mayor .
Scarborough is already Conservative controlled 27 councillors out of 50 .
The Conservatives should be more established in the North West this year, Blackpool etc. Should help them to say , “we ARE coming back”. In the present climate they should do pretty well to very well for example at Bolton, Blackburn, Bury, Lancaster, Preston, Chorley area, Hyndburn, Sefton, the Wirral. They will never have a better chance. If they miss out then the chance may not repeat for several years.
245 In some of these councils there is little scope for Conservative gains this year . There are very few marginal seats in Wirrall and Sefton for example and the split wards being defended this year are not favourable to the Conservatives . In Sefton for example the 2 marginal wards involving the Conservatives are being defended by them and on 2006 results they will lose one to LibDems . Chorley and West Lancs between them saw 7 Conservative gains from Labour last year but because they are defending in most of these wards this year they will not make more than 1 or 2 gains this year and will probably lose 1 to Ind in Chorley .
The Conservatives are in a lot of trouble in Hyndburn and this could be a big win for Labour.
Our man there tells us canvass returns are swinging to Labour. The Cameron factor is turning traditional Northern Tories away from the party and local disaray is swinging other Tories to Labour. The national picture is not playing out on the doorstep. Labour are well organised and have one of the best campaigning teams anywhere. Labour look like they have the 2 net gains needed from 7 Tory seats but may pick up as many as 3 or 4.
WA Elections:
Things are looking interesting in Caerffili - This is a Labour seat with a strong Plaid presence, with the added interest of Ron Davies standing as an independent. I had originally thought that Ron would take some votes from Labour, putting the seat clearly in Plaid’s reach. But Ron seems to be doing VERY well, and this seat is shaping up as a fairly balanced three way fight and could be won by anyone!!
I think the Conservatives could take East Lindsey from NOC.