How prices change in the final few days
One of the features covered in my book “The Political Punter” is what happens to betting markets in the final few days before an election when the small body of knowledgeable political gamblers is joined by many in the wider betting community.
They tend to follow favourites resulting in the prices of the most fancied options getting tighter and others moving out. So according to the book “If the person or party you want to back is a strong election favourite the early you get your money on the better. If you want to bet on anything other than a strong favourite wait until after the polling booths have opened to get a better price”.
This applies very strongly this week and these are my approaches to some of the key markets.
Locally in Bedford where I live we are in the final three days of a bruising battle for the Borough’s elected mayor. Last time a multi-millionaire retired local newspaper owner won it on an independent ticket with the Lib Dems in second place. Unlike Thursday that election took place on its own without council seat elections at the same time and had a very low turnout. Things could be different on Thursday when the ability of the incumbent to hold on will require a lot of voters to switch from their normal allegiance.
The Tories appear to have been using their national direct marketing operation and the Lib Dems have produced the best election literature that I have ever seen. I’ll be trying to find a local bookie to offer me a good price against the incumbent winning again. As with all bets everything depends on the price and whether your assessment of the probability of something happening are better than the odds being offered.