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How should we judge the performance of Team Cameron?

April 30th, 2007

    What will be the Tory vote share on Thursday?

There’s no doubt that all the parties will be spinning like mad in the next couple of days to talk up the prospects of their opponents and to dampen down expectations about themselves. We have this silly game every year so that whatever the outcome all the parties can claim that they have done better than expected. Yawn…Yawn.

But what performances should we be expecting and what, in particular, will be a good result for the Tories.
The numbers I will be looking for on Thursday night and Friday will be the national party vote share projection from the BBC based on the outcomes in up to 1,000 key wards.

Last year this gave:-CON 40%: LD 27%: LAB 26%: OTH 7%. If the polls are right and there has been an increase in the Tory position since then then I would expect a share something in excess of 40%. A share below 40% would be bad news and show that the momentum has not been carried forward.

In the Scottish Parliament election and that for the Welsh Assembly I would expect bigger Tory shares than current projections. Polls in those parts of the UK have traditionally overstated Labour and the nationalist parties and understated the Tories.

What national share of the vote will the Tories get in Thursday’s local elections (BBC estimate)?
42%-100%
40%-41.99%
38%-39.99%
0%-37.99%
  

Mike Smithson






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