What does Scotland’s loss do for Gordon?
May 4th, 2007
Has the Chancellor what it takes to turn the party round?
So Scotland is now lost and the question must be asked about what this means to the Scotsman who looks set, within the next few weeks, to take over at Number 10?
Even though the final result is nothing like as bad as might have been feared a week or so the news within the last few minutes that the SNP is top party must cast a shadow over the man who has sought after the premiership for so long.
In spite of everything there can be few who still doubt that Gordon is going to get his promotion. The latest betting price is at 0.08/1 and that might look like a bargain in a day or two.
But what an awful moment to take over?
Mike Smithson
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Who knows, Where is Gordon???, Mcavity is nowhere to be seen.
Think its a good moment to take over, Lib Dems getting squeezed no free shots at the next election.
Its make your mind up time Cameron or Brown.
There is no reason that The Conservatives have to win or Labour has to loose, in 2010.
How feasible is a SNP/Tory/Margo MacDonald coalition as between them they hold an absolute majoirty (of 1) ?
BBC - Tory gains in England now number 860. 13 councils left.
Great picture! This result has been so widely predicted that it probably wont make much difference. When Blair goes it’ll be a completely new game. i doubt it’ll do much damage to the relationship between London and Edinburgh either as it didn’t when Livingstone won London as an independent. They just have to work to-gether.
A bad hair day though for Ming. I’d worry that when Gordon takes over there might be pressure from his party to step aside just to stop them being sidelined.
PS. Is it true-as Tony Blair says-that Labour have done better than they did three years ago against Michael Howard?
Can someone explain why the pundits were so far out in their seat predictions?
5,
Surely Lib Dems have to change leader now to combat the Cameron effect.
They shouldn`t be too nice and act like Labour did by keeping Foot in 82 after Warrinington by election.
They should be ruthless to get an electable leader.
Labour doesn’t have a mandate to rule Scotland, but they rule England on Scottish votes. How many times will we hear that? Not enough times.
3 - It’s impossible. The SNP wont even sit in coalition with the Tories on local councils.
Disapointed we went down a seat up here but not horendously bad under the circumstances. Still always 2009 to look forward to!
6 - Labour has done “better” (in percentage share) but so have the Conservatives. One feels that the percentage share calculations are a bit dodgy though.
Has Rik popped in today, btw?
Wow - spent much of the campaign in Waverley! Us Tories felt we could possibly win enough to take control, but for the council to go from LD 27 CON 26 in 2003 to LD 3 CON 51 is truely sensational. Remember this was a top 3 target for the LDs in 2005 GE. Some of these wards have not been Tory for 40 years!
Would we say the 40/27/26 vote projection is wrong, then?
I’m delighted to find myself living in Conservative Lincoln today. 27 years of Labour rule ended! Fantastic - the air is that bit fresher this evening.
O/T. If i just heard right, Radio 4 news have said that a Downing St spokesperson had confirmed Tony Blair will make his announcement on Thur next week.
Paddy Power have priced this date at 4/5 (1.80) in their Blair resignation market. Free money (?) but you may have to be quick
So, SNP/LD/Green majority (65), Unionist grand coalition, or a minority administration?
14 - dodgy’s probably a bad choice of word.
Steven @ 15 - feels great doesn’t it! Might even start taking my hols in Blackpool now!
I’m wondering - why is Tony Blair referring to the plank that Labour is being made to walk as “a springboard”?
13
What odds would you have got on that, even a tenner would have been enough to retire on. Gt result
I’m going to allow myself to feel ever so slightly smug in running a campaign that bucked the national trend, especially as my target candidates got nearly 60% of the vote on a very high turnout (54%)
1
‘Where is Gordon???’
He always does the dissapearing act when there is bad news,somebody needs to tell him that he can’t do that when he is PM!
Lets us embolden ourselves in the new landscape that offers us the chance of freedom and security, truth and justice, after 10 years of darkness and despair.
And I hope I get the much deserved apologies on the Scottish Election from some overly harsh critics and sceptics.
Justice is slow, but sure. The SNP won - no gloating, just humbleness.
Hey look at the electoral arithmetic. It’s almost imposssible to put together a majority coalition.
The only two-party coalition that adds up is SNP-Labour, which everyone had assumed was politically impossible. Failing that, it’s either persuade BOTH Tories and Lib Dems into the same coalition with SNP or Labour, also unlikely since everyone had assumed no-one would talk to the Tories.
Or, it’s one of SNP & Lab, one of LD & Con, and one two or three out of Greens and Independent, and even then that only adds up to 65,66 or 67, giving both negotiation problems across three parties, and whipping problems because of the small majority.
A minority coalition government is surely impossible, and it would be far too weak. Could we get an SNP minority government, putting together majorities issue by issue?
Most likely SNP-LD-Green with a majority of 1?
20,
Because he knows how to win General Elections ,and it could still be possible to win a fourth, if the fight is still in the Labour Party to achieve it, like the Conservatives did in 92.
16. Caveman. Where you lead, I will follow.
I did quite well on the Scots parliament election thanks to you noticing the initial arb and then levelling my position as the polls moved against the SNP. Close run thing. I owe you a pint.
Conservatives could end up gaining over 1,000 seats. The most momentous day in the last 20 years in England, 50 years in Scotland, and 100 years in Wales.
Finally got the Broxtowe results - took so long as they spent all morning verifying the votes, and there were seven recounts in different places. Many points:
(Broxtowe constituency): Lab gain 1 from LD, lose 2 to LD; lose 2 to Tories (so I lose my two £5 charity bets made here - a Tory in Kimberley won one of 3 seats from nowhere on a big personal vote).
(Ashfield constituency but Broxtowe borough): Lab lose 1 each to Tories, LDs and BNP.
no overall control as before - the Tories are largest party at 17 seats but fel lwell short of their objective of control (needing 24), partly because of failing to unseat two pro-Labour independents.
The key battlegrounds were Beeston W, which as predicted was a scrum with LDs beating Lab in the end by 70, with Tories unexpectedly third; Stapleford SW which we gained from the LDs with a 20-vote margin; and two split wards where we lost a councillor each. The Ashfield Tory gain was with a majority of 1 over the LibDems. The BNP gain was comfortable, alas, partly as there were two independent anti-BNP cnadidates as well as ours.
Nationally, the result seems to me passable - not the frightful start for Gordon that many of you were hoping!
28. I don’t think so. Your maths is wrong - 900 is still possible, but unlikely.
24,
The SNP won the most seats by one.
Not a working majority, so should be given a change to form a minority government , good luck.
A thought about the outcome in Scotland, The SNP and Lab got around 30% each ( SNP slightly more ) so the result is actually a good reflection of the votes cast - 45 seats being approx 34.6%. Compare this to Westminster where Lab got a 60 odd seat majority on just over 35% of the vote. All this despite complaints about Labour’s over representation in Glasgow.
The only option I can see is for a minority SNP administration, I cant see how the SNP could do a deal with the tories as part of the SNP pitch is to appeal to a decidedly left wing anti tory segment of the electorate ( even if another substantial group of support are tarten tories ). I suppose a deal with the Libs is possible but that would still leave a minority administration. We could see a wide grouping of the SNP, Libs, Greens and Margot MacDonald but how stable would that be? It might be interesting though to see how a green party would fare with its first experience of power in the UK.
The best option for Labour seems to be to a spell in opposition in Edinburgh. Two years or so of watching the twists and turns of minority coalition government should help to ensure good results for Labour come the general election and a return to government in Scotland in the not too distant future.
21
If you had tried to get odds - even the bookies would have rung for the men in white coats.
The Tory performance in Wales almost makes me smile as much. We are good 2nd places in loads of seats….we are now even polling well in bridgend amongst others. There is scope for some great prospects at the next GE. Shame we did not get the Vale of Glam this time though.
Incidentally, the Conservatives have more council seats in England than all other parties, major and minor, and independents, put together
why didn’t LD Gordon MSP also go for the list? If she had done so (and assuming she would have been ranked in the top 3 along with Stephen and Rumbles), she would have got in.
Tory Alex Fergusson has gamble in deciding not to stand in the list, but he got it right as he won very easily his previously ultra-marginal seat
Karen Shirron’s failure to win Aberdeen Central target seat costed her the chance to go to Holyrood.
It has done better for other SNP candidate failing in target seats. For ex Jamie Hepburn failed in K&C but he will go to Holyrood thanks to list seats
Was Cunninghame North the most marginal victory?
I note that Ochil was very close. I thought that the national trend would have made it more confortable for SNP even without Reid
Theoretical majority (65) combinations with the SNP:
SNP/LD/Green (65)
Nick Palmer you have got to be kidding? Scotland a Labour Kingdom for 50 years has now fallen. Labour is set to lose almost 1000 seats and you sitting on a majority of just over 3000 in a key marginal and you try to fool us by saying ” not the frightful start for Gordon that many of you were hoping!”
I think you may need to find another line of work these past 10 years have made you confused. Hopefully we can help you along come the next election.
Nick Clegg: “we are the only party fighting in rural AND urban areas” lol
Well I didn’t quite get the number of seats right but I hope people managed to get on the SNP at 7+ this afternoon.
These results are truly stunning for the Conservatives and disastrous for the Lib Dems. I remember the usual Lib Dem suspects being scathing at those of us who suggested that they might lose more than 100 seats net and setting a bar of 700 gains for the Cons to claim success!
Well the results are now:
Cons +861
Lab -468
LD - 252
Across Berkshire the Lib Dems have been anihilated - see West Berks and Windsor & Maidenhead!
In Reading the LDs consolation was picking up two seats off Labour. BUt they slipped back in several other wards they had been in second place.
ITV news have just said that 41/27/26 translates into Tory Majority of 19.
H&K suggests 20 but Baxter gives Tory Majority 96
Why the disparity and who is correct. Given that 41/27/26 is pretty well the 1983 percentages which gave the tories a majoirty of 140 I’m inclined to side with Baxter.
There is a rumour that the results are so bad for Labour that there will have to be a serious candidate to oppose Brown.
May be today is the day that Brown lost the leadership election. A week is a long time in politics.
Nick you know what, I really like you.
Not just because you are indeed a personable bloke and you have the courage to stand up here under your real name and leave yourself open to the old slings and arrows, but also because you do, every once in a while, bring a real smile to my face.
How on earth can you honestly stand there and say that Tory gains of almost twice as many seats as most predicted, Labour losses over 450 seats and losing the Scottish elections is a ‘passable result”?
Labour got stuffed mate. If I were Gorden I seriously be starting to wonder if the lecture circuit might not be a better career move.
PS. Come to the Newark show on May 27th and I’ll buy you a pint. You can even declare it on your members interests
29
‘Nationally, the result seems to me passable - not the frightful start for Gordon that many of you were hoping!’
Losing your monopoly in Scotland,majority in Wales,hundreds of council seats in England and a third world electoral system in Scotland where over 100,000 votes are discarded is passable ???
Can this rumour be traced back to a post on politicalbetting.com at 6.43pm on 4th May?
Nick, that kind of spin won’t help. It’s been a very bad day for Labour. You’ve lost Scotland for the first time since god-knows-when. Your council losses (standing at almost 500) are very bad, and would have been even worse if the Liberal Democrats hadn’t had so bad a night. The Tories are set to gain around 900 seats, far more than even the most generous commentators had been willing to give them.
So no, sorry, I don’t believe it’s any kind of “springboard” as Blair wants to make out. It is “frightful” for Labour, and things can only get more uncertain for them as a Nationalist government sets up shop in Holyrood and an unpopular Prime Minister in waiting attempts to put an end to all this discontent and unpopularity.
41. I believe H&K adds lump sun swings while Baxter uses percentages. e.g. Say Party A went from a national share of 20% to 30%. Thats a lump sum increase of 10%, and a percentage change of 50% increase.
In a ward which last time got 40% for party A, H&K would predict 40% + 10% = 50%. Baxter would predict 40% x 150% = 60%.
Personally, I think Baxters more reliable, but its probably somewhere between the two.
Frankly, if Labour’s results aren’t as bad as they could have been then it just gives everyone a reason to look forward to next years elections
46
‘So no, sorry, I don’t believe it’s any kind of “springboard” as Blair wants to make out.’
I would have thought it was more of a trap door than springboard.
Rik W, a very good result indeed in Reading.
For Labour, this was a result along the lines of 1996 for the Conservatives, rather than 1995.
40,
Have to agree, Cameron must be hoovering up Lib Dem voters, surely the hierarchy of the Lib dems will wake up soon, or maybe not.
The hope of PR for UK GE could end with Ming, for another generation.
47 - my understanding is that Baxter uses a “lump” for parties going up, and percentages for parties going down, or something like that.
41. Wells would give a Tory majority of 47. However, Kinnock got 45% at the same point in the cycle, but lost in 1992. If the Tories fell back as much, they’d be looking at about 31% next time….
What Ming really needs now is another by-election. Sedgefield, anyone? (though that WOULD be a big ask!)
Congratulations to Dr Adam Pringle, who won as an independent in Telford, with a campaign based on the themes of:
“The government has wasted billions of pounds of NHS money(on NPfIT, NHSDire, CfISSA, ISTCs), is permanently damaging medical training (MMC,MTAS, replacing excellence with minimal competence), and is distorting clinical priorities with micromanagement by fiddled targets.”
Telford isn’t that far from Kidderminster, and you will be hearing a lot more from Dr Pringle by the time the general election comes round. Put your bets on now.
52. Fair enough… my fault for trying to seem knowledgable.
Anyway, the last two council results means the Conservatives result extended for the remaining 10 councils would mean a gain of 900 seats. Its going up and down for every new result though.
42. Reid wouldn’t be drawn on Sky today. He said “wait for my announcement next week..”
53. The difference is that Cameron will continue to push a centrist course. Unlike Kinnock who revealed his class warrior instincts at the last minute, which cost him the election.
45. Anyone who followed my recommendation on the SNP made money. I recommend again. Watch and wait.
May be Milliband now regrets a statement he made several weeks ago. Too bad he fell for the Brownite propaganda.
Had Milliband stood now, he would be a shoe-in.
27. Glad to be of assistance. I just wish I’d got the £16 that someone got on at 19/1 on the SNP this afternoon before the price tightened. That would have been the icing on the cake!
The story below from yesterday seems to support what i thought i just heard on the news, with an announcement on PM/leader on Thur and one on an MP on Fri, but obviously the PP punt isn’t risk free.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6618389.stm
here is an example of a springboard to success if i understand Blair correctly - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDpw2rtUWMU
59 - How’s your sego Royal prediction coming along.
58. Yep. Kinnock was doing well until the campaign started. It then all started to unravel for Labour. Quickly. Culminating of course, in the utterly cringeworthy Sheffield Rally and the last few days of the campaign when Labour swanned about as if they were simply *expecting* to be the new government in a few hours time…
… they were too complacent. Complacency is not a trait I associate with Cameron.
53. The difference is Labour only scored 35% of the national vote at the last GE!!!
The Tories are the only party in 6 years (2001 - Labour 40%) to score 40% or above! Cameron is no kinnock!!!
The other problem for labour is there huge shrinking in local govt north of the border due to PR and obviously the fact that the SNP is unlikely to loose all the FPTP seats they picked up yesterday!
Adrian at 37: um, the loss is not nearly 1000 but under 500. But yes, maybe pleasure that the local Tories were foiled from coming even close to control is influencing me more than it should - I’ve only recently come out of the count.
Richard: a tempting offer!
Bet winners: where do I send those fivers? Harry H told me but I’ve forgotten, and I don’t think John O named his charity.
and this could be a mixed bag - http://www.thewormman.com/international/images/activator1.jpg
fertile ground for improvement!
I wonder how much SNP’s win here will affect their increase in seats for Westminster at the next election. Labour will face the impossible task of fighting a left-wing SNP in Scotland and a centre-right Conservative party in England.
Considering we are talking about the notional national vote calculated by Rawlings and Thresher can anyone recall their forecast for this year (couldn’t be as awful as last years but would like to know how much trust we can put in their calculations)
41. To be fair on the vote i fiddled around with it keeping the tories at 40 and boosting labour into the low 30’s and dropping the LD’s back to 20% ish. That said there is no written rule that all LD support from local elections will co-elese around labour. Particularly as Brown is less likely to attract these voters.
In addition, the huge increase in some LD seats of Tories obviously means that the tories can get more help in electionering in the future.
61 - ROFL, but I don’t think Prescott will be the next leader.
Should Nick Robinson be hung, drawn and quartered?
42. Will. Perhaps you could check out the rumour with Herbert Propre and Will Herbert?
The offer is real Nick. It is the beer festival that weekend. I might even see if Pat Mercer wants to join us though I am not sure he is talking to me at the moment as I have been nasty about him in the local papers on local issues.
These results are superb for David Cameron. Nearly 900 gains is certainly at the top end of any predictions made in the last few weeks.
I suggest that Nick Palmer would be wise to study them in detail as I fear his analysis is wildly optimistic and buys into the the “Once Blair is gone, everything will be beer and skittles with Gordon…” approach familiar to many Labour MPs, which borders on delusional.
I think the Tories have been all smoking some of Cameron’s wacky backy. Guys- this is as good as it will get for you. Last time Labour fought these seats it was on the crest of a gulf war success, and facing the most hapless leader in memory.
The results last night show that the Tories have not the proverbial hope in hell to win a general election majority in the UK. The best that you can hope for is the most seats, and even this seems too steep a challenge.
Re 29 Nick, this is where you and I part company: interpretation of results and the political tides. This is not passable for Lab. Overall, it’s bad and looks a lot worse now that nearly all results are in than it did based on the early declarations. Not quite completely awful; not hopeless in terms of stopping a Tory majority. But very problematic.
75. Tyson, just please please promise us you will be around this board during the next General Election. I can’t wait!
Canterbury & Whitstable constituency result:
Con 13574 (43.8%) LD 9824 (31.7%) Lab 4539 (14.6%) Grn 1233 (4.0%) Oth 1831 (5.9%)
Con 19 (+1) LD 14 (+3) Lab 2 (-4)
What is the explanation for the fact that the Conservatives have surged towards the end of the vote counting? Is it that the councils with only 1/3 of the seats up were counted first, and the all-ups later, meaning more council changes?
65 - I’ve just been ‘moderated’ - Mike obviously doesn’t agee with my choice :(. I’ll try again. Nick, Many thanks - a fiver to Amnesty International (aw, go on, double it
would be appreciated.
This shows that Blair was right to call his departure date for after these elections- the sting will be taken out, and Brown will start with a clean slate.
I am now far more optimistic than I have been for a long time that the Tories will be out of power for at least one more term- hopefully long enough for their superficial unity to be pulled apart again, and the creatures from the night to re-emerge. Labour will unify behind Brown now- its ambition for power is still there.
75. I Know what your saying but two things - Brown is going to be caught between a pincer action.
The Scotish dynamic is going to inflience the next UK election far more than is generally realised. Firstly if Salmond becomes first minister, he is going to be dictating the agenda north of the border. If Labour and the other parties vote him down then that will just boost his standing. If Salmond does well in office then the SNP are going to catch more votes - new people converting to the product.
In England people are already against Brown and the percieved lack of fairness in the legislation of English laws will do Brown no good. Plus the Tories are much stonger in the areas close to where they need break throughs in England. That’s where most of the seats they need to form a government are!
An interesting thing would be next GE in the uk, if the SNP hold on to their 21 seats won yesterday. Whilst i don’t discount the possibility of a hung parliament. What are these potential 21 SNP MP’s going to do for english laws - likely to sit on there hands by all accounts because salmond thinks Scot’s MP’s should not be voting on English laws.
I think you need to readjust your conception of the political landscape, the mountain that cameron has to climb up has just been changed from a 15,000 ft to 4,000 ft - still hard byt not as hard as it was before!!!
I have to agree with Tyson. There was no motivation whatever for Labour voters to come out to vote. I personally knew several who will certainly vote at a General Election who just didn’t feel inclined to give the government a pat on the back! On the other hand Tory voters had every motivation to vote and probably did. If this count only gives the Tories a 19 seat lead then complacency is the last thing I’d recomend!.
tjm- of course- I think there will be many blue humble pies to be scoffed- the last election was a real hoot as Howard tried to sound upbeat after experiencing a rout worse than Foot’s in 83, the next one looks to be even funnier
67.”I wonder how much SNP’s win here will affect their increase in seats for Westminster at the next election. Labour will face the impossible task of fighting a left-wing SNP in Scotland ”
In 2005 GE SNP didn’t do very well outside target seats and in many of them fell. So that produced a not so big number of Lab/SNP marginals. IIRC there’s just a Westminster constituency where Lab is defending a majority of less than 10% over SNP (Ochil). The next Lab/SNP seat is Dundee West with a 14.6% majority (today’s swing in DW would produce a close result though)
Labour may have ambition, but I don’t see why that will make the public give you another term.
Glasgow Council
Lab 45 seats
SNP 22 (all of their candidates?)
Greens 5
LD 5
Con 1
Solidarity 1
79. rural seats?
From a couple of threads ago:
370 - argh. That result was a bit gutting actually as it meant the Lib Dems just stayed ahead of the Greens as 2nd largest group. Will you stay at home next year? How much would it take to make it worth your while…
by Neil May 4th, 2007 at 3:46 pm
Hi Neil - I was only in Norwich as I was working at the UEA for the day - so you could always have it closed before the next elections! I hadn’t realised that the implications were wider than the ward. Comiserations - but I was due some good news - first time I’ve campaigned anywhere we won.
Having just caught up on the results, congratulations to the Tories - 850 gains was right at the top end of what was being suggested, and some spectacular breakthroughs. I’m getting bored of this ‘no Tories in the North’ line, the facts show it’s simply not true.
I guessed the day before that it wouldn’t be good for the Lib Dems, when I caught Newsnight the night before for the first time in ages and saw Vince Cable being interviewed. I have a lot of time for Vince, but he came across like a man facing the gallows, and I feared that he knew something we didn’t. I suspect now he did! In fact the LD losses are even worse than they appear as there were some superb gains to offset some of the losses. While ‘mixed bag’ is probably the most optimistic way of looking at this, we do need some freshness in the party - not necessarily a change of personnel but a new approach, some of our campaign materials look dated and unchanged, and a new emphasis on getting supporters motivated by coming up with principled and distinctive policy.
SNP - I actually think they should have done much better than they did, and it is a moral victory only. For Labour to hold on as well as they did is some achievement. I suspect there will be a few pb.c articles coming up on the coalition possibilities.
Off to Scotland for a few days break now, so congratulations to all newly elected posters, even those in Reading, and I’ll see if they’ll let me back into England if Scotland haven’t declared war on it by the middle of next week.
That picture of Gordon is not from today - he is in hiding.
When I left the office the Tories were running at reported gains of a few hundred. Now they are sitting at gains of 800+. I have to say thats astonishing and I have no idea what happened in teh space of about 6 hours.
Two points come to mind though:
Re: Scotland. If the SNP do lead a coalition it’ll be a pain in the arse for Gordon but now this is done Gordon has one big target, the next GE. I do not expect Labour to take such an equivalent fall in Scotland at that election short of an atrocious government performance under Gordon. I say that as anything but a Labour supporter.
Re: England. That the Tories have been gaining well without a substantial percentage increase overall should be noted. The bare figures are less important than the concept of value of vote, i.e. that a vote in some constituencies matters more than votes in others. The Tory performance probably bodes well for them getting the best of those more valuable votes come next GE, particularly at the expense of the Lib Dems as well as Labour.
Congrats to the SNP. To actually get ahead of Labour, who did appear to have managed to get their vote out on the day is quite an achievement. Not that I’m a fan of the SNP.
Martin Smith: yes, well, see my further comment above. But I’m only confident talking about my own patch, and as there was a good deal of scepticism about my canvass reports I’ll note that they were nearly all from Beeston W (which we lost on a small swing) and Stapleford SW (which we gained on a small swing), and these turned out as predicted to be the two key swing wards - so not that far out after all.
If a GE were held tomorrow I agree I’d narrowly lose - but it won’t take a huge recovery to change that position, which is why the local Tories were looking a bit down today. The Labour landslide in Nottingham didn’t do any harm either…
87. The Tories have a seat in Glasgow? Have they always had one or two in recent years or is that new?
That reminds me of an episode of Rab C Nesbitt…
84. Well, my predictions is that the Conservatives will get around 330-340 seats at the next GE, and I’ll definitely be here either on the day or in the days following it. You make your honest prediction and we’ll see who’s closest.
Creepy. How come Gordon Brown can be PM of England when so much of the legislation passed by his government will have no impact on his constituents in Scotland, where so many matters are devolved? This is not democracy. He will be a non-accountable PM to the electorate in England.
Brown can be UK Prime Minister, but the UK parliament needs paring down DRASTICALLY if the UK is to continue, and we need a national parliament for England with our own First Minister.
At the moment, people can die in England for want of medication available on the NHS in Scotland and the people of England are discriminated against on a whole range of issues.
We need equality!! Those in politics in England are far too complacent and uncaring about the lower levels of society of society, worst hit by anti-England discrimination from this “UK” Government, and David Cameron wastes no opportunity to butter up the Scots and make anti-English speeches in Scotland.
“What does Scotland’s loss do for Gordon?”
If I was head of strategy in the Brownite camp I would have my head in my hands today, this has got to be the worse case scenario that Brown could possible face arriving in No10. And before the Brown fans jump up and down, these voters were not giving Blair one last kick out the door because it would have been wasted as he is already there. They were giving the Labour party a very strong message right across the whole of the UK about their recent record.
With the biggest pre coronation trailor in political history the voters don’t seem keen to give Brown a good luck card as he starts his new job.
67.I think the SNP will fall back in the next GE in much the same way as others did up here. If it is a straight fight between Labour and the Conservatives I would be very worried if I was a Libdem.
Don’t underestimate just how many Conservatives, Labour and Libdem supporters lent the SNP their vote for Holyrood.
I am perplexed. Obvoiusly Parliamentary seats in the North West which have Lib Dem MPs are inhabited by a different breed of people, since across the board there were several Lib Dem gains from the Tories and Labour - and no losses at all.
Perhaps the container-load of those special glasses which, when worn, persuade one that David Cameron is not the re-incarnation of Tony Blair with the same mixture of rabid populism and vacuous nonsense, was hijacked on its way up here?
91. The huge increase in seats with an unchanged share of the vote means the Conservatives are picking up moderates from the other parties whilst the right-wingers are staying at home. This will surely be a huge plus in the next election.
Channel 4 have been doing number crunching and say the swing to Cameron was much lower in the North and Midlands (7%) versus the South (11%), and also saying Kinnock did a lot better in 1990.
John O: that’s fine. I’ll give it to the local Beeston branch if that’s OK - I’ll tell them why and it’ll cheer them up (the Labour councillor who lost to the LibDems was a supporter).
Brown is finished before he’s even started. Even Major managed to win an election - it’s increasingly clear that Brown will not. His premiership will probably be ranked alongside the likes of Bonar Law’s.
One of the most interesting election days for a long time. And the potential for quite a bit of wrangling in the days/weeks to come.
Does anyone have accurate figures for the share of the vote in Scotland for regional and constituency votes? And the total number of votes that were spoiled/not valid?
The decision to combine the AMS of the parliament election with the STV system for the local government election, and to combine the regional and constituency votes on one ballot paper, must surely be reviewed. I hope that the SNP victory doesn’t deflect from the fact that the it has been a very dark day in Scotland for the democratic process.
25 seats to get for 900 gains.. 9 councils left, it’s just possible????
SNP have apparently (and amazingly) picked up 14 seats in Edinburgh. Looks like the Lib Dems will be the largest party with 16.
I know it’s not much to feel smug about but my asserion that an ‘as you were’ result of -250 for the Lib Dems has come about. Tories done a bit better than my +750 gains, but really the only winners of the night are the SNP.
Be interesting to see how some of the numpties will get on in government…
Martin Day- a far more realistic assessment of things- I think strategically the Tories can go upto 250 seats with their present strategy, after then they are really scratching around.
Labour can probably hang on to 250 without breakig a sweat- the next 50 are winnable, but at 300 they have to go foraging in middle England, and midland suburbs, Thames gateway, and south suburbs- where they will meet a strengthened Tory party. Brown has to make a realistic assessment of his prospects to hold Tony Blair’s coalition together- which secured parts of middle england.
The LD’s can hang onto 55 of their seats if they keep to some sort of discipline.
My preferred option would be a Lab minority govt supported by the LD’s indirectly. And I think our friend from Broxtowe will still be a sitting MP. I think this is by far the most likely possibility
Any indication of how much the turnout in Scotland is up from 2003’s 49.4%?
“I think strategically the Tories can go upto 250 seats with their present strategy, after then they are really scratching around”.
I’d say 250 was pre-Cameron - now, 280-300 is eminently achievable.
106. 51.8%
105. So for the Conservative of seats its my 335 vs your 250. May the best man win!
“Conservative no. of seats” I meant.
tjm- my honest prediction
Tories 261 (36)
Lab 304 (34)
LD’s 55 (21)
others 40 something
This will still be an OK election for the Tories- they will claim the democratic mandate, and winge on about the west lothian question and Brown being Scottish. The problem is that Jo public wouldn’t care.
104. “SNP have apparently (and amazingly) picked up 14 seats in Edinburgh”
12 seats for SNP in Edinburgh.
LD 17
Lab 15
SNP 12
Con 11
Green 3
Here in Bedford we have the wonder of electronic counting - and guess what we are still waiting.
Tories have made one or two gains and so have the Lib Dems. The big one we are waiting for is our elected Mayor contest.
I have to agree with Tyson and Roger. For the Conservatives to gain a mere 900 seats and 38 councils is truly appalling - on a par with Michael Foot’s performance in 1983. It’s laughable that they can pretend that winning more seats than every other party combined is a good result. If they had any chance of winning the next election, they’d have gained Liverpool, Glasgow, Easington, Wear Valley, and Durham. But of course, they failed miserably.
tjm- I am a bit more charitable to the Tories- I am sure that they will do enough to hold onto DC- any less than 250, and he will have to go.
105. Yes there is merit on those figures until you look at 1/
The tories will be on 214 or there abouts. I would think the tories could pull in another 35 seats just by the tatical voting stopping or even being reversed due to the likely “new politics”.
2/ The tories have risen in % of the vote from comparative local elections to a higher share of the vote.
3/ Time for a change.
Andrea That doesn’t include the spoiled papers, I suppose. Add on 100,000 compared with a much lower figure last time and it does make a difference!
101. Bonar Law won the 1922 election and only left office because he was terminally ill. Callaghan, Douglas-Home, Balfour and Lord Rosebery on the other hand have the rather less distinguished record of played one, lost one.
112. Given the closeness of the result - and the good weather on Thursday - its a very small increase on 2003.
114: Absolutely. After the shameful result of only getting control of five times more councils than the government, David Cameron should resign immediately.
sean Fear- I hope that you revert back to your objecticve self in your local election commentary. Tongue in cheek is not your style.
Anyway, would you or anyone else have expected annything less from Roger or myself? I found out last night that I once lived on the same street Roger is living now, so we share a number of other things in common.
Have a nice bank holiday weekend all. Maybe catch up to share my sorrow with my Sego losses!!
Tyson @ 105, You argue your case in a spirited fashion, but I find it hard to believe that the prospect of merely hanging on to their current seats in order indirectly to support a minority Labour government will be a good motivation to the Lib Dems to “keep their discipline”.
Lib Dems all but wiped out in leiceser…paying the price of years of infighting…
120. One difficulty of comparing councils under control (or wards won, for that matter) is that they’re very far from all being the same - one large Met might be the same size as perhaps a dozen district councils. Does anyone know how the figures look in terms of population governed by councils under majority control?
re 92 Nottingham area was obviously a good patch and there were a surprisingly (if still modest) number of these. Here in Brighton, Lab 24 to 13 seats in one go. And it could have been worse had it not been for a very good ground game in at least a couple of wards which held back a bit of the Blue/Green tide. The Tories were a few votes from taking outright control and, as it is, have half the seats if the one (ex-Tory) independent goes with them. It’s time to do some seriously listening.
On the other hand, as I posted while you were at your count, it’s worse for the LDs. They were not expecting this and are going to be stuck to explain it or doing anything much. Lab morale and activity, I am pretty sure, will soon be on the up in many places. Just look at Hastings…or Nottingham… or Luton for what can be done. Question is, given the membership and candidate numbers, in just how many places have Lab got what it takes to get out, engage and deliver.
Scottish councillors after 30 councils out 32
SNP 324
Lab 279
LD 140
Con 130
Green 8
SSP 1
Other 190
Solidarity 1
99 Rod Crosby
Looks a mixed bag in the North West for Cameron doesn’t it. Some of the results were very impressive e.g.
South Ribble +24 (44/55 seats)
Wyre +11 (45/55 seats)
Blackpool +13 to win council
and yet in Sefton and the Wirral, no progress……..
The obvious dividing line is the influence of Liverpool.
29 - Clearly Broxtowe was not too bad for Labour, though of course the Tories there may point out they are the largest party and polled the most votes. But in Broxtowe given the Tories were saying there they were going to take control, I guess the result is passable there.
As for Tom Levitt in High Peak, Gillian Merron in Lincoln, Mark Todd in Derbyshire South, Judy Mallaber in Amber Valley, Liz Blackman in Erewash, David Taylor in NW Leicestershire and Vernon Coaker in Gedling however. Maybe not so much, all are facing new or renewed Tory councils, all have been defeated by the Tories, all in East Midlands marginal seats, maybe not so passable for them.
114 - Probably Blaenau Gwent and Tower Hamlets as well. Can’t rely on just Labour seats.
Re Broxtowe - do we know whether Nick Palmer had to pay out on his bet? I think that a £10 donation to the Cats Protection league is at stake.
118. Okay, maybe if he’s lucky he’ll just make it into Callaghan’s league.
Someone quoted the now amazing figure for the number of councils without a Lab member.
Here’s another ‘quiz question’ with a surprising answer given the overall results: What’s the net gain in Tory seats in Bristol, Birmingham, Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds, Newcastle, Sheffield and Nottingham?
Reading East constituency result:
Cons 40.3%
LD 28.4%
Lab 21.7%
Green 7.4%
UKIP 1.9%
re 134 and West?
131 It’s been done, Mike. Whatever else might be said about NickP, he is no Monolulu!
It’s a two horse race says Conservative councillor Rik W .
130.”Probably Blaenau Gwent ”
well, they almost caught 4th place yesterday. The gap between their last place and 4th place is norrowing. it’s a clear sign!
135 - I dont have all the Reading West, West Berks wards and results, so I dont know!
137 - the Lib Dems tried that in my ward - and lost!!!
It is interesting to note that it was the LDs that went negative in my campaign and it rebounded on them. I had a lot of comments on the doors yesterday that people didnt like Gareth Epps’ (LD PPC)personal attack on me - hehe!
131 - We do, and like the Hon Gentleman he is, he will (actually the moggies would have benefitted had he won; in the event, humans can sleep a little safer).
139 Yes but they cut the deficit from last year of 701 to 450 odd not bad as you say they fell back in most Reading wards .
Seats and councils are what matters in local elections, not percentage of the vote’.
Not sure if that has been mentioned, but what about the pollsters? ICM appear to be the clear victor in Scotland, with an average error of 1.6% on constituency vote and a lead error of only 1%. Yougov’s average error was 2.8% and lead error of 5%. Populus 3.2% and 3% respectively.
On regional vote, ICM did even better with 1.5% average and 1% lead error. Populus did great with 1.3% and 1% while Yougov have got to be disappointed with 1.8% and lead error of 3%.
Congratulations to ICM, it seems.
142 One shouldn’t get too worked up about the BBC’s projection, which is an artificial exercise.
BTW I was amused to see one Conservative in Sedgefield polled precisely 0 votes.
Re 143 ICM were better…but also probably luck. YouGov’s average error was higher but still within bounds of ‘reasonable’.
Is there a website where I can get the individual constituency result *easily*? The BBC website can’t be copy-and-pasted, and the Ceefax has only got the percentage (!) not the numbers.
142 both count but for different reasons, In the New Labour bunker, Bliar is saying it’s not all that bad, whilst directing non existent armies of New Labour luvvies. meanwhile McCcavity Brooooooooon is waiting for the bomb to go off in the bunker, whilst trying to negotiate cwith the Allies to fight against the real enemy, the Bliarites, Shades of 1944.
144 - In Tony Blair’s ward, apparently.
I’m having a bit of difficulty understanding the various interpretations/spin people have on the English results:
CON: People seemed to be expecting 500-800 gains and +20-30 councils. Actual gains 800-900 and +35-40 councils, so top of expectations and pretty good, at the least.
LAB: People expecting 600-900 losses and 5-10 councils lost. Actual losses 450-650 and 5-10 councils lost, so a poor night, but certainly not as bad as it could have been.
LD: People expecting flat to 200 gains and flat to +10 councils . Actual result 200-300 losses and around 5 councils lost, so worse than almost all predictions - pretty horrible.
I know I’m a bit of a novice compared to all the experts around, but please someone tell me where I am wrong on this?
I couldn’t help laughing at the notion that Blair’s parting gift to Brown is a ’springboard’. In the words of the old joke, if it wasn’t for the noose around his neck he’d have broken both his legs.
149. Often a nice simple non-expert analysis is perfectly correct and the big sweep picture just as important and significant than the detail.
In this case I wouldnt trust the apparent experts with figures as patently clear as you have laid out. They’ll only muddy the waters unncessarily.
Re: 145. I think they were all quite good performances, especially on 2nd vote, but it seems churlish to say the ‘winner’ was lucky. If this were a general election, would be find average errors around or above 3% acceptable?
149 That’s about right.
East Northants has become a one party state after Labour lost its last three councillors. Now Tory 39, Others 0.
I noticed that Blair’s interview had Tony giving the game away at times. He looked bewildered and a bit panicked at times. A bit like saddam, just before they hung him!!!
I have seen this once before in 2005 - when things were looking a bit more knife edged. I don’t believe a word the bloke says but you have to admire his acting skills!!!
You can look at the results in two ways A) they were not as bad for Labour as people thought or B) given the fact that last year there was Black Tuesday - Prescott, Patricia Hewitt and was it Jowell??!!! I mean things could not really have been worse for an election.
This year by comparison it was relatively calm for the GOVT - especially the last two weeks. So why did Labour not do better? I mean everything is waiting for Blair to get out of NO.10 and he has pre-announced that more times than it was worth. He leaves the Labour party in a much worse state than when he found it and the tide is going against Labour.
In some of my comments above i think i was being to objective. THis really is a very bad result for Labour.
I have looked at Broxtowe - firstly the council website is not the best and going on two wards is not really a very good indicator of Labour/ Tory preferences. But i don’t live there, so i will have to give the benifit of the doubt to the Broxtowe one!
Two Rogers…
“If you want to give Blair a kicking and you’re unenthused by Cameron-which seems to be the plat du jour -there really isn’t anywhere else to go! One of the stories of the night I suspect-Ming on the March! Libs to get between 28-30%
by roger May 1st, 2007 at 6:36 am”
“re lib Dem result.
Likely share 26% but good news is 2nd place in share.
Seats becase so amy councils are all up in south net los of 150+
of seats to Lib Dems
But key fact is that main message on Friday/saturday will be huge success of Tories and SNP in Scotland.
Council seats net losses in spite of the odd high profile gain like Hull.
Overall Lib dems going backwards in locals for first time in many years.
Roger H”
105: ” And I think our friend from Broxtowe will still be a sitting MP”
You heard it here first folks, Nick Palmer is doing a chicken run!
I assume that’s what you must mean?! Broxtowe can’t stay Labour after this surely….
I think the tories taking Roxburough and berwickshire is an interesting development.
I said ‘wait and see’ on the Sarko v Sego. Sego now has no chance. Back Sarko with everything. 8% is a good return for just a weekend.
The Welsh assembly seats are identical to the new GE seats.
If yesterday had been a GE in Wales, the seat movement would have been:
Lab -5
PC +4
Con +2
LD -1
On new GE boundaries if Labour lose 25 seats they lose their majority. I can’t see how they could possibly afford to lose 5 seats in Wales.
149: pretty fair assessment as I see it MikeG. The only point I’d add from a LD prespective is that some of our gains, such as Rochdale, Hull etc, are in key parliamentary seats for us at the next GE.
Will L at 28 claims that this is the most momentous day in the past 50 years. I suspect that it will struggle to be the most momentous day of this week for a majority of people, but if it is pointing towards a General Election then it may have more significance.
Fenland is now 39 Tory, 1 other as well…
161 - as a Hull resident, if the LDs can get anywhere here in the next GE, fair play to them. Hull’s been Labour for approximately eight billion years, but Team Yellow were pretty much nailed on to take it last night.
I think the Betfair market has been completely mad today and presumably people without much knowledge have got their fingers burnt.
Well, back from a day’s work where I was away from the ongoing results to find that they have, indeed, been quite astonishing.
Firstly, and most importantly, Labour are second in Scotland and far short of a majority in Wales, I feel like I should say that again because you might take it for granted. Despite the de facto bribes of the Scottish and Welsh electorate by labour, despite the vile, gutter press, particularly the scum at the Sun, despite the system being loaded to benefit labour, they could not hang on. It is, quite simply, a political earthquake and, while some think it just affects Scotland, we know that in fact it should have a greater effect on England and how it defines itself. The Union has to change before it dissolves completely, can the other parties come up with a bettr solution? They have to, and quick.
Secondly, the tories could hardly have expected better, extending beyond even the overreaching targets of their biggest critics to get 900-ish gains and, what will probably turn out to be, more than 41% of the vote. The South was predictable but not the way that they have scythed through large areas of the Midlands and North. Looking at my old home of High Peak the wards they have won are right in the heartland of labour territory. Noise about Manchester etc. is doing the tories a favour as they creep up elsewhere almost unnoticed.
Thirdly, and with sadness, Lib Dems, this has to be a wake up call. Too many times you see attacks on the tories and nothing on labour, people will not vote for an adjunct to an unpopular government. Attack labour, attack hard, steal their clothes, make tory/lib dem switchers actually like the lib dems, that’s the only way to stop the vast haemorrhaging of votes.
Labour; it’s their worst nightmare, you can see it in their eyes in unguarded moments, they rely on the Celtic fringe and even that fringe is turning away. Well done to the SNP and Plaid, by the way, self determination is the way forward; an end to centralisation will benefit the whole of the UK.
Finally, it may be a dog’s breakfast of a PR system but it reflected the votes very well in Scotland and Wales, England next time as well, please. As for the voting scandals, we are going to hear a lot, lot more - time to remove electoral processes from government I feel. At the moment you’ve got a bunch of shysters sticking two fingers up to democracy and trust. If turnout is down, blame yourselves not the voters.
161 tpfkar - What happened in the ward in Milton Keynes where you were canvassing and in which the LibDems had a majority of 2?
For tories who think the result in scotland is good for them, Can someone put on the record how many votes parties on the right of centre got in Scotland and how many for parties left of centre?
I really don’t understand the Hull talk at all. It’s perfectly possible for LDs to score heavily in council terms in Labour heartland areas without coming anywhere near converting that vote into seats, as Liverpool and other examples show. All this nudge-nudge business concerning mysterious Hull “targets” looks like whistling in the dark. THere are many better Labour targets.
Given Labour have lost the general election in Scotland - their so-called ‘heartlands’ - who still thinks Labour has even the remotest chance of winning the next UK general election?
I would project that having hit the crucial council seats tally of 46% and only 1,100 short of the crucial 48% with 2 more council elections to go, the likelihood is that the Conservatives will exceed 48% before the next UK GE. Labour have no chance in hell. They are a lame-duck administration.
Don’t believe the TV media liars. The newspaper media give a much more honest and accurate analysis, it is dire for Labour - total meltdown.
Also looks as if Chris Took retained his Ashford seat….but his predictions of significant LibDem gains did not materialise: indeed there was no change in the huge Conservative majority.
149 a very good overall picture - the LDs have had a terrible result, really really bad but nary a one will acept the fact, they tend to just make sniffy comments about your analysis not being objective.
141 - last year it was a sitting Cons Cllr up for re-election. This year it was the Lib Dem deputy leader!!!! Not bad I feel!
167 - Well, that depends rather a lot on whether you consider the SNP as the Tartan Tories or the nationalist wing of the Scottish Social Democratic Party.
re 108 Andrea does that include the 5-6% spoilt ballots?
Draw a line from just south of Chester straight across to the northern edge of the wash and just look how few councils Labour has left south of it. Blair’s big tent has collapsed, the game is up for New Labour. The runup to the next GE will all be about an oldish version of Labour desperately hanging on to as much of its core territory as possible.
166: thanks for asking John O. The LDs only lost one seat in Milton Keynes - but it was ours. We went down by 110 in the end. I spoke to the candidate yesterday evening as I was collecting some knocking-up information, and his attitude seemed to be ‘I either get elected or get some time with my wife’ so I don’t think panic is setting in, and I’ve enjoyed being part of the campaign.
150. Yes, I think Tony Blair’s “this is a springboard for success in the next General Election” must go down as one of the most deliciously asinine and deluded of all political remarks. It’s priceless. It’s like saying “I consider my recent case of syphilis a springboard for success in my upcoming marriage”.
Thanks Tony. And I mean that. You’ve just given us the msot enjoyable moment of your whole wretched and immoral premiership.
Now feck off, there’s a good man.
169 - are you aware that many, many voters vote differently depending on which body they are voting for? Do you honestly believe the SNP would get this kind of vote in a uk GE? In which case I am off to set up my own bookies, you can be my first customer.
48% for the tories in the next GE? thanks for giving me the biggest laugh of the day.
Can anyone explain the discrepancy between BBC figures and Sky ones?
178 - I think that was percentage of seats, not share of the vote.
175. Spot on.
In the whole of England south of Birmingham (excluding London), Labour now control just 3 councils:
Reading, Luton and Stevenage.
Surely that should be a headline!
149
Yes that’s pretty much spot on. Moderate encouragement for Cameron, confirmation that Gordon Brown has a real fight ahead of him and will it be Ming leading the Libs into the next election.
bbc website says labour has gained Leicester council from NOC, an excellent result for them. Some consolation for a pretty rough election.
Surely a disaster for the Lib Dems?
181 - Please don’t forget Corby
179. BBC have “Others” losing 134 councillors.
Who are they? They are not Residents Association, Green, BNP, UKIP or Respect which are all shown separately.
UKIP did ever so well, didn’t they? I wonder how long before they degenerate into yet another round of infighting?
183. I excluded Corby as its level with the southern half of Birmingham!
re 175 collapse of the Labour Big Tent is a fair point. But see 133…there is not a new big tent.
181. Shh… you’re spoiling the media narrative that the Tories don’t have a seat in Manchester!
184. I think it’s mostly lots of local parties, like Community Action Group or Idle Toad or the Wherever Independents Group etc.
And Reading is elected in thirds so next year another one will go - although gaining Liecester is a compensation
Labour also now have control of just two councils in the crucial swing region of the West Midlands.
184 I think the “others” are mostly genuine independents who did well in rural areas whilst the Tories were doing badly. In small DC wards local independents are often the only opposition to the Tories, so their stock tends to rise and fall in line with Tory fortunes.
Thanks to the advice proffered on here by many people re the Scottish poll I’ve made a couple of hundred quid on the SNP as largest party although I was resigned to losing it at about 3 last night!
Hope that others have made a few quid too, special mention to anyone who was brave enough to take the plunge on the big prices that were available on the Scots Nats earlier today, you’re braver than me!
UKIP’s pathetic display is good news for Cameron. The BNP’s relative failure is good news for everyone, but again best news for Cameron. The Tories are the sole standard bearer on the right and centre-right, across the country - and in all parts of the country.
UKpaul is absolutely right. For the LibDems to survive they have to stop being a pitiful appendage to a discredited Labour party and come out fighting on all fronts, attacking Brown at least as much as Cameron. Otherwise they will wither and die over time.
My hunch is that the last GE will prove their highwater mark for a generation, whatever they do. But they could at least try.
190 but they’ll never lose Stevenage!!
Lid Dems have gained control of Northampton from NOC. Former MP Tony Clarke won a council seat as an independent after leaving the Labour party.
196. Sorry I mean Lib Dems
They took seats from the Conservatives and Labour.
Tony Clarke is trying to push through the redevelopment of Sixfields Stadium in Northampton. The Lib dem’s have been blocking it. Could lead to some interesting sessions in the council chamber.
194. I have always thought that 2005 was the chance for the Lib Dems to do very well. However, I think they needed to position themselves nearer to the Labour left and stop being so obsessed by Tory decapitation. Their obsession with wiping out the Tories was largely because it was the anti-Tory vote that helped them in 97 and 01. However, we’re entering a new phase in British politics and if they want to replace any party, it has to be Labour. If Labour lose the next election and fall to pieces, the Libs have to be there to pick up the spoils. They would never have pushed the Tories into third place because the Tories are still pretty much the only party that identifies itself as centre-right. If they’re savvy, they DO have a chance to push Labour into third place. But I don’t think they have the clout to do it, preferring instead to concentrate in vain on battling the Tories.
194 - SeanT, you could see it coming (and I predicted up to 149 losses but nothing this bad.
1) Cameron nice to lib dems, makes lib dems feel that there are similarities with his party - result, a great number of votes taken from lib dem candidates.
2) Ming et al, sneering at Cameron, makes tories feel that there are no similarities with his party - result, lib dems lose votes to tory candidates.
Conclusion, lib dems lose out by negative camaigning and by emphasising difference over similarity. Some parties thrive on negativity but it turns people off lib dems as the image of a ‘nice’ party is sullied.
194: like this perhaps?
http://www.libdems.org.uk/news/liberal-democrats-blair-brown-score-4-out-of-10.12499.html
Well nearly right on Vale of Glamorgan. But John Smith should not sleep easy. The momentum is now clearly very Tory. Right on CW&SP. I knew Plaid didn’t have the manpower to mtach the Tories there and in Aberconwy as well, especially outside North Wales. Cardiff West, well I predicted Rhodri’s majority would be halved, but I though Lib Dems not Conservatives. A first clas result for them. Maybe they could dream of the seat again one day. Lib Dems, Cardiff South, build on 2005 progress. I think they’ll be in second at General Election, next time with potential to win when Michael retires. Great result in Newport Eas Lib Demns well on their radar now, and Newport west Tories, Paul Flynn watch out I think.
Overall though having pushed Labour hard in many and taken key seats you have to say the Conservatives are back with a bang in Wales.
So did Rik W win.
200. This site’s founder saw it coming about a nano second after Harrogate.
One of the funniest TV clips was on BBC news this afternoon,Ming walking towards his party activists saying ‘haven’t we done well’ with his arms in the air and an amazed look on some of the activists faces.
201. Sure, the libdems have attacked Labour but… their problem is that, despite the yellowbookers, they are basically left of centre, left of Blair even, and everyone knows it. They are also absurdly pro-Europe, anti-Trident, beards-and-muesli, please help the blind kittens, etc etc. So their attacks on Blair/Brown (with the MAJOR exception of Iraq) lack sincerity and oomph, because everyone knows that the LibDems will always hate the Tories even more.
I’m not sure if there is a way out of this for the Lib Dems. The Cameron Tories are stealing your green credentials and mopping up the nice centre-right voters across the country. Your best bet is that Brown tacks notably to the right to combat Cameron and then you can sneak in on the left, but this is unlikely. Brown is an autoritarian centralising Scottish social democrat, with a streak of tax and spend, he’s not gonna go right.
Looks a bit gloomy for you guys this evening.
204. It wasn’t one of *those* arms-in-the-air guestures, was it?
http://www.libdems.org.uk/media/images/conference/campbell-conference-06_250.jpg
I always think he looks incredibly awkward doing that.
Worried that my local conservatives - in Corby which is supossed to be a marginal seat - actually lost a seat and failed at all to improve on there 2003 result. No breakthrough and for the record, this is not the North.
193 Yes Matthew, I won quite a bit, but primarily because of the contributors (Peter the Punter/Jack W) who spotted the 5/4 SNP most seats a few weeks back. I am also in good shape on the French presidency thanks to this board. Many thanks to all.
206. The best photo of Ming’s praying mantis pose is still this one: http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/41395000/jpg/_41395466_campbell_203.jpg
207 Yes but Irthlingborough which was very Lab went solid Tory, Tories lost 1 Corby to Labour’s 2, Lib Dem targetting there? All Labour wiped out in East Northants so looks good for constituency. In Wellingborough where I’m from we made further gains
re 156 I have consistently forecast swweeping Tory gains in seats and councils and Lib dems going backwards in a major way
This analysis has been based on national swings for these two parties since 2003 in all up councils.
Rallings and Threshers forecast fro the BBC based on recent by elections was, as last year ,wide of the mark ,forecasting as it did Lib dem gains and a low number of Tory gains.
The party leader most under pressure now is not Gordon but Ming.
Roger H
Are we not going to get the final four council results tonight, then?
PtP & Co, is there going to be a market on the coalition options for the parties in Scotland?
“I hope that the SNP victory doesn’t deflect from the fact that the it has been a very dark day in Scotland for the democratic process.” - with my PR hat on rather than my Labour hat, isn’t this a bit unreasonable? The Scottish result has precisely reflected the percentage shares of the vote, as d’honmdt usually does. Pretty good from the democratic viewpoint IMO.
“You heard it here first folks, Nick Palmer is doing a chicken run!
I assume that’s what you must mean?! Broxtowe can’t stay Labour after this surely…. ”
Chicken runs are against Labour rules; more important, I wouldn’t anyway - regulars here should know that I fight my corner. I remember doom being predicted on a number of occasions in the past - the Iraq war, the petrol crisis, to name but two. We’ll see!
213 - Not as far as I know, Chris D, but watch Paddy Power and Hills. They’re fairly innovative on that kind of thing.
315. Ta PtP will do, don’t normally have a flutter but I have a feeling about this maybe not being the outcome we expect.
213. Actually can someone explain what the process is as regards the formalities of forming an admninstration. Most of all what if a minority governing group was on the cards, how does it get clearance to form up?
re 214. Nick than spin is scandalous - what about the 100,000 (that’s one hundred thousand) who bothered to go out to vote - where is democratic viewpoint? Also what about the Tories in Wales, clearly in second place by votes but several seats behind PC?
The truth is that your party has completely ruined the reputation of this country for fair, impartial and secure elections and you ought to be thoroughly ashamed.
Will anybody offer me odds on Juile Morgan standing again in 2009. Rhodri’s going and JM will eat her alive completely if this result is an indicator.
214. Nick from my kids classrooms to the other half’s office all anyone could talk about was the 100,000 discarded ballot papers, not to mention the people who never received their postal vote.
One of my kids came home to tell me that their teacher summed it up as “a bad day for democracy in Scotland”, others just ask “how it could happen”……
I have heard some stories of dodgy practices which should also concern us all.
I highlighted my concerns a few days about this being a very real outcome today, but even I am shocked at the figures involved.
217 - the Parliament votes for a First Minister, so the minority governing group needs to ensure sufficient abstentions from the other parties to get its candidate elected. Why would they abstain? So as not to be seen as obstructing a stable government… to give the governing party enough rope to hang itself… etc etc.
Blair’s “perfectly good springboard” for the general election has a rival delusional comment. The BNP state:
“Against an intense anti-British smear campaign by meddling third parties (which will subject to investigations by the Electoral Commission) and an almost silent mainstream media the hundreds of BNP campaign teams around the country can take pride in the results which show that the BNP overall lost 8 councillors at borough/district level but gained 8 councillors at the same level.
Work is still progressing on adding individual votes to our database, but no Party activist or supporter can have anything but good reason to be delighted with our votes overall.”
http://www.bnp.org.uk/
Not wanting to interrupt the LibDem local postmortems, but can we get back to important matters at some point? Are there betting opportunities in anticipating tomorrow’s headlines and their influence on the less politically minded punters in the population? What I mean is…money will surely go onto the tories in the general election markets. Other than Betfair, are there any other trading opportunities?
it is a springboard for labour…..but that isn’t water brown is about to land in
I see the BBC has adjusted its vote-equivalent estimate - now Tories 40 (no change over 2006) - Labour 27 (+1) - LibDem 26.
Martin: do you think the Brighton slide had much to do with the school lottery selection controversy? I remember press comments that it was ‘very brave’ in the Yes, minister sense to introduce it just before an election.
Chris A: it’s not spin, we simply disagree. I’m not arguing that the new system was brilliantly introduced: I simply think d’Hondt produces good democratic results. I agree it’s not good that there are a lot of spoiled papers, and that suggests the instructions weren’t clear enough, but we’re talking about different issues, since you were arguing not just for greater clarity but for abolishing the whole system.
221. So in effect each party/group who wishes to nominate the first minister does so and thats what is voted on. I take it then its one with most votes wins (in theory)?
The Iraq war didn’t have a great outcome for the people who live there did it Nick? But ‘out of sight etc….’.
A shamefully self centered remark.
re 225. Nick, yes I’d abolish the whole farrago of election systems we have in this country - 6 IIRC and replace the lot with STV
I’d agree with you that d’Hondt works well but if you don’t have enought top-up seats (like in Wales, and whose decision was that then?) it’s not proportional at all.
Lab 43% of the seats on 30£ of the vote
Tories, 2nd place in votes but poorly thirs in seats.
226 - it uses multiple ballots with elimination until someone has an absolute majority:
http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/nmCentre/news/news-03/pa03-029.htm
(see the “Counting Votes” section)
So I should correct myself - if the other parties agree that the second largest party should be a minority administration on its own, they would need to actually vote for that party’s FM candidate.
The Queen formally makes the appointment, but it’s “on the nomination of the Scottish Parliament” in a way that the appointment of the UK PM definitively isn’t. (Though of course in the UK case, the corresponding back-channel agreements would take place to ensure the incoming PM wasn’t going to lose an instant vote of confidence or have the Queen’s Speech voted down.)
Too knackered to do so now but I am looking forward to reading all of these threads … if only to find our how Mark Senior spins away this LibDem result! Night, night!
212. The BBC is now waiting on only three - South Bucks, Warwick and Breckland. Sky News already has South Bucks result. Warwick count delayed to Tuesday due to problems with voting machines. Breckland count progressing slowly, again problems with machines.
re 231. With manual counters we’d probably have had everything counted bt 5am this morning.
229. Thanks though I’m still a little confused.
In the event of more than one nominee in the race are abstentions considered a vote or is it only positive votes cast that matter?
I can’t quite work out from the link whether that is the case.
Any thoughts?
has the bedford mayoral result been declared?
234. Problems with the machines. Result expected in the early hours according to BBC Regional News.
233 - it looks like as long as 25% of MSPs vote for a candidate, the abstentions are just ignored.
236 ok thanks.
If that is so that could lead to some interesting scenarios.
Putting the final results into my Scottish calculator gives (with differences from reality)
SNP 24 (+3) FPTP, 23 (-3) list
Lab 35 (-2) FPTP, 10 (+1) list
C 2 (-2) FPTP, 17 (-4)list
LD 12 (+1) FPTP, 5 (0) list
Gr 1 list (-1)
So it would appear that the SNP didn’t do quite as well in FPTP seats as a uniform Baxter swing would suggest and the Tories did much better. Still I was confident that the SNP would win from early on this afternoon.
222 Professor Thrasher on Sky Vote 2007 said that Labour were best placed to win the election… on what basis ??? that if you’re in the gutter the only way is up?
The final French Presidential election poll by IPSOS out just before the deadline.
Sarko 55% (+1)
Sego 45% (-1)
231. But the BBC appear not to have input some councillor numbers on councils which have declared.
eg numbers all still blank for Leicester.
So the changes are not up to date.
9. ‘Labour doesn’t have a mandate to rule Scotland, but they rule England on Scottish votes. How many times will we hear that? Not enough times.’
Repeating a lie often enough doesn’t make it true. Labour’s overall majority at Westminster is currently 62. Labour’s overall majority among Scottish MPs is currently 21, among Welsh MPs is currently 18, and among Northern Irish MPs is currently -18. Which means that among English MPs alone it is currently 41: a more comfortable majority than either Heath or Major had for the whole of Britain, and almost as large as Mrs T’s (for Britain) in 1979. So you’re talking baloney.
93. ‘87. The Tories have a seat in Glasgow? Have they always had one or two in recent years or is that new?’
Yup, though not much more than that for a while: 4 in 1988, 5 in 1992, 3 in 1995, 1 in both 1999 and 2003. The ward that they won in the last two elections forms part of the ward that their successful candidate will be representing this time round.
The annual two-day-merged-into-one election fest has come to a close. It’s been a bumpy ride, but I managed to get through with just a little power nap between 6am and 8am this morning. Thanks a lot to everyone on this site - though the rampant speculation has often been very wide of the mark, it’s always a good read!
In the end, the results are providing significant food for thought for everyone. I don’t think I was expecting that at the beginning of the night (Thursday night and Friday seem the same thing to me right now) … and these really are unprecedented times. Very exciting for all of us politicos out there.
Now, I just need to work out a way to make money out of it!
I’ve seen a number of times the assertion that Neil Kinnock “got 45% at the same stage of the electoral cycle” before losing in 1992.
But - from Research paper 06/26 “Local Elections 2006″, page 10 (which has the national equivalent vote from 1979 onwards), Kinnock’s vote share in 1989 (second year of what looked to be a probable 5 year Parliament) was 42%, against the Tories 36% (Lead of 6%). Not 45%.
He did get 44% the following year (still not quite there) in what would equate to 2008 in this cycle, when the Tories got 33% (so a lead for Kinnock of 11% at the exact mid-point). Which means that Cameron’s lead is 8% better than Kinnock’s at the same point and 3% better than he ever got, a year earlier in the cycle.
It’s also, aside from the 1992 result, the first time that the Tories have got into the forties since 1982 (last year was found to be 39% after the results were all in).
From Charles Clarke’s statement that he won’t run coupled with his apparent former stance that someone other than the lefties had to run against Brown and if no-one else did, he would - can we deduce that a “big beast” from elsewhere than the left of the Labour Party is going to break cover next week.
And can we link it with John Reid’s new coyness over his plans.
Or am I adding 2 and 2 to make 5?
242 I am not sure how coming in second place in the popular vote and only winning more seats because of our electoral system and some rather old boundaries equals a mandate to govern England with a large majority. Or maybe I am just being silly.
Arnie
you are just being silly…
239
‘ Professor Thrasher on Sky Vote 2007 said that Labour were best placed to win the election… on what basis ???’
As its the second successive year that Thrasher’s projections have turned out to be rubbish,I don’t think anyone takes him seriously.
247. You should know…………..
225-Nick Palmer
‘I’m not arguing that the new system was brilliantly introduced: I simply think d’Hondt produces good democratic results. I agree it’s not good that there are a lot of spoiled papers, and that suggests the instructions weren’t clear enough’
Last year we had the postal ballots fraud,now we have a system rushed in (presumably because Labour thought it would be to their advantage)that results in over 100,000 discarded ballots;an expensive computerised counting system that doesn’t work and it looks like the party that came 4th in Scotland with around 10% of the seats is going to decide if the party with the majority of seats and popular vote gets to form a government!
Anything but good for democracy.
242. Are you completely devoid of the facts.
Labour lost the popular vote in England. They only won more seats because of a seats structure on FPTP.
i.e. Labour lost the popular vote in England in 2005. So to say Labour have any chance is really stretching things.
Mike - I don’t know from where you dredge up your photographs of GB. We’ve seen some shockers in the past, but this one really does top ‘em all - I know this cannot possibly be deliberate on your part, can it?
The poor chap really looks as if he doesn’t have long for this world.
253. It’s the camp, purse-lipped expression that gets me. I can picture him playing an old woman alongside Les Dawson.
244. Kinnock’s (Labour’s) vote share in the year 1990 assisted by a strong special factor …. the Poll Tax. So hardly fair to Cameron to compare with the Tories now.
246. and 251. are responding unfairly to 242.; 242. was not saying that it is a good thing that Labour has a majority in the House of Commons on the basis of being the second largest party in England; but merely rebuttaling the erroneous statement in 9. that Labour “rules England on Scottish votes”.
Mike I’ve just written a long post on the deputy leadership but it’s been caught by the filter - every time I link to Tom Watson’s blog it seems to do this. If you can dig it out and reprint it I’d be grateful since I’m too tired to re-write it!
250. “I agree it’s not good that there are a lot of spoiled papers, and that suggests the instructions weren’t clear enough’”
John, you have hit it on the nail despite the comments from a few on here who were quick to blame on the voters!!
Now I am absolutely sure that every Scottish PBer on this site went in and voted correctly yesterday because they are all active in various parties and totally clued up on the system.
But for most other people there were a few problems, first some did not realise that there were any changes in the system until they arrived, I noted that the instructions were pretty pitiful considering the changes when I saw them in the polling booth.
But the thing I noticed the most was the fact that despite a lot of people realising that STV was the new voting toy of the PR brigade in the locals, NO ONE seemed to realise that the Holyrood voting system had changed too, and this is something which can be laid squarely at the door of the last administration.
First two people stopped on the street in Aberdeen for a phone today. 1. Knew from the news coverage today that they had voted incorrectly, and the 2nd person well they did not receive their postal vote but ended up helping their neighbour who could not understand all the new voting systems despite the supposedly clear instructions.
Wonder what would happen if the UK GE result ever came down to 100,000 votes in a bunch of key marginals, nay could not happen could it??????
28. ‘The most momentous day in Wales for 100 years’ Why?
Labour have lost their majority, Plaid tread water and the Tories make some gains (although somewhat thwarted by UKIP). Hardly momentous and Rhodri Morgan will remain 1st Minister.
259 - Labour did not have a majority to begin with - Plaid did not tread water they gained three seats (admittedley not enough) - and Conservatives only gained ONE seat