Is this down to punters anticipating a Brown bounce?

The chart shows how punters are assessing the general election chances of the two main parties on the Betfair “overall majority” market. As can be seen there been a movement back to Labour and now the price of the party being returned with a fourth successive majority has tightened to 2.7/1.

The hung parliament option remains the most popular with a current price of 1.44/1 and this is where my money still is. Gordon has some way to go to put Labour in a position where it can contemplate winning a majority.

Whenever you are viewing the party’s polling performances you have to factor in the ongoing tendency of the pollsters to over-state the party.

We’ll see if the pro-Labour sentiment conitnues with the next batch of polls.

Mike Smithson