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Thread 2: the verdict of the market on Newsnight

May 30th, 2007

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    The money moves to Cruddas after the Newsnight hustings

The above chart records the changing fortunes on the Betfair betting exchange of the four outsiders in the race for the Deputy Leadership before, during, and in the aftermath of last night’s Newsnight hustings on BBC2 which started at 10.30 pm. To watch the debate click here.

    Most of us have opinions about political outcomes – gamblers are prepared to back up their views with hard cash and that’s what these charts are showing.

The big “winner” amongst the outsiders was the only non-minister – John Cruddas who, until now has suffered from the lack of name recognition. As the Independent reports this morning his support is now growing in the constituencies with many more coming out and endorsing him.

Cruddas has been a long-time tip on this site and many regulars got on him at quite long odds.

This is how punters rated the two front runners.

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The next big event that could affect the markets is a new YouGov poll of Labour members. This closed on Monday so the fieldwork took place before the televised hustings. Will Hilary Benn still be enjoying his substantial lead over Johnson?

Mike Smithson

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