Introducing - the Populus guide on how to split the Tories?
June 18th, 2007
Is this the agenda for Brown to make trouble for Cameron?
A striking illustration of the challenge facing David Cameron comes from a Populus survey of MPs of all parties in the Times this morning on their views on key social values.
A total of 128 MPs were included and were made up of 70 Labour, 39 Tories, 13 Lib Dems and six others. The sample was weighted to reflect the balance of parties within the House. These are some of the key findings:-
So there you have it - a whole series of areas which should create a lot of passion on CONtinuityIDS website and, of course, in the editorial columns of the Telegraph - which used to be a Tory newspaper.
These areas will surely shape the agenda for Brown to use if he wants to split Cameron from large sections of his party. That looks pretty dangerous for the Tory leader.
For the great power of governments is that they can usually set out what should be the key issues for political debate.
In the general election betting the Labour price on “winning an overall majority” is now tighter than the Tory one.
Note - there are new bets on the PBC Recorded wagers page
Mike Smithson
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I’m sorry to start the thread discussion off topic, but…
The latest Newspoll is in today’s Australian:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21922704-601,00.html
ALP 56 (-4) LIB/NAT 44 (+4)
This is a small relief for Howard, but he still needs to keep working to get the 2PP back up to 47 or 48 before the election campaign starts if he is to have a shot at winning the election.
Ironic cover story mike given that france and australia are now moving right.
Surely what the mp’s think.is irrelevant. Its the electorate that matters, and they are much closer to the Conservative mp’s than labour ones. Labour is far to the left of the electorate. So may be its brown that is really in trouble.
Ultimately the media knows that if they went hard left as you’re suggesting they would lose their readers and viewers and go bankrupt. This is why the media can never go as hard left as labour would like. New papers would spring up and take their readers. Its just economics.
Ultimately britain well never elect a hard left government which is why brown is in trouble. Think how far to the left government policy has moved, especially on education and tax.
Perhaps this is really one of those non-stories which distracts from the sarkozy landslide - triple digit majority in parliament as well as the presidency. unprecedented for france.
It’s a swiftly moving morning Mike, I was at rock bottom reading the Times populus story you comment on but hey! Things move on, I turned to the Telegraph thinking to get the doom and gloom out of the way and there was a pick-me-up of knock-out dimensions, Cameron’s society speech hailed even by the Telegraph Leader.
Right Gwen, that speech is fantastic if ConHome got it right.
Sorry but I don’t see 83 as a good enough sample even of MPs and anyway what matters is the voters
2. Australia is hardly moving right at the minute, not with a 2pp of 56 to Labor. That would translate into a massive landslide.
Also re-reading your article you are deluded if you think making civil partnerships marriages and compulsory state education for all are vote-winners Mike! Nor does Cameron even want to support either one.
And less than 10% of Lab MPs think we are tolerant? On second thought cchq should have fun using this poll!
Tying this in with the last thread, it does give more ammunition to those who are wondering what the Lib Dems are for. In this case, it’s hardly the Lib Dems’ fault - they’re giving the liberal answers you’d expect but Labour’s parked its tanks on their lawn. The almost identical results is one symptom of the way in which the Lib Dems are getting their identity eroded.
That Labour holds the views it does is interesting given the way the BNP has polled in a number of Labour areas. Again, it’s not a surprise but it does perhaps help to explain why some Labour voters feel disconnected from their party.
On the Tory side, as others have said above, whether it can be used to generate splits depends on whether Labour can split all or some of the party away from broader public opinion and the media as well as causing the leadership to have to take on either Labour from an unpopular position or its own MPs.
Blair was always able to wheel out fox hunting as an issue which did this, and got himself out of numerous holes with his own MPs by doing so. That option’s now been closed off. The main reason why fox hunting worked as an issue was that the majority of the public backed Labour but there was a sizable and vocal minority who didn’t, and who were by and large Tory-supporting meaning that the party couldn’t ignore them without risking their votes and couldn’t back them without risking the votes of many undecided. I’m not sure any of the issues from the poll referred to will have the same impact.
A word of explanation
The point I am making in the post is that there are areas where the Cameron view is different from major sections of his parliamentary party. If Brown wants to create Tory splits he will bring forward measures that Cameron would find difficulty in opposing but which would set him at odds many of his MPs. Further proposals in relation to gay partnerships would fit that entirely.
Just as Cameron was highly successful in splitting Labour on education in 2006 Brown can do the reverse - and he sets the agenda.
The way that Labour will deal with the Cameron threat is to set him apart from his party.
My personal view on each of these issues is irrelevant.
I am a little surprised that Mike gives so much credence to such an inbalanced dataset. Like Paul T, I am also inclined to believe that views of the Labour and LibDem participants are somewhat removed from what the populace at large think. Maybe they need to get out more?
For example, I am not too sure that those affected by the London Tube bombings would agree that “the diverse mix of races, cultures and religions now found in our society has improved Britain”
The sample is small but the Tory posters’ response here is revealing - they don’t say no, there is no division, but no, the electorate is with the more right-wing position. So stuff the Tory MPs who like a multi-ethnic society or favour equal rights for gay couples? Also, Test, you’ve misread the piece in your comment at 7. Fewer than 10% of Labour MPs think we are NOT a tolerant country. (I’m not sure I’d say we are myself, but that’s by the by.)
But politically the most significant finding in
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article1945854.ece
is surely this:
“On most issues, Liberal Democrat MPs are quite close to Labour and a long way away from the Tories, underlining the obstacles in the way of creating a Conservative-Lib Dem coalition if there were a hung Parliament.”
Labour and LibDem MPs are by and large culturally similar. I may have policy differences with Norman Lamb or Norman Baker, but I’d expect to have similar views on most social issues. This applies to some Tory MPs too (Oliver Letwin, for instance) but there are quite a few Tory MPs who seem as alien in their attitudes as Mongolian sheep-herders or Will L - they don’t seem to share a common frame of reference with me at all. No doubt they feel the same about me and Norman Baker. If it ever does come to a hung parliament, this sort of factor becomes important - a government that is dependent on Evan Harris and Ann Winterton regularly voting together would be inherently unstable.
I’d have guessed that Europe was an easy issue to split/isolate the Tories on. Cameron hasn’t kept quiet for two years without reason on this…
By the way, if kingbongo hasn’t seen the end of last night’s thread, have a look - I’ve agreed to the feline bet.
11. Nick, I certainly wasn’t saying that Cameron should pursue some right-wing strategy and never mind those “Tory MPs who like a multi-ethnic society or favour equal rights for gay couples”. Apart from anything else, this would potentially create a split from the other side, as well as being the U-turn he can’t afford to make.
The point was that if Labour want to try to create a split within the Conservatives, they need to be sure of their own political ground first. I suspect that the close to 50-50 split in Tory MPs answers better mirrors the country’s opinion than the 90-10 split of Labour MPs. (I also made Nick’s point about the closeness of Labour and Lib Dem parliamentary opinion, which as he rightly says is significant as far as any post-election deal is concerned).
It’s also worth mentioning that some of the questions are a bit false. To expect a yes/no answer to “one of the things that would most improve life in Britain today is people being more tolerant of different ethnic groups and cultures” is not really fair. Taking my own opinion as an example, I would certainly support greater tolerance to other ethnic groups, but to support different cultures? Not entirely - that’s one of the things that divides the country rather than integrates it, although it does depend on what is regarded as a ‘different’ culture.
11. True, I misread it. Apols to Labour MPs! But Nick, iirc, polls showed large support for civil unions but no desire at all to extend that to marriage, meaning that the Labour MPs are out of step with the country - and the idea that state schooling should be compulsory for all is SO left-wing and unpopular that I don’t think any pollster ever even bothered to ask the question.
Would it be your and Peter Hain’s position that private schools should be banned?
Mike, and in order to create splits with Cameron you need to be arguing that Cameron’s position is against his MPs.
But Cameron has never, and never would in a million years, say that he’s in favour of banning private schools (David Willets went on record as in favour of them in the recent grammar row) nor, would he or has he ever stated he is in favour of changing civil partnerships to marriage.
So what split you perceive from this is unclear to me. As David Herdson says, lumping in “culture” and “ethnic groups” makes the question impossible to answer. Most Tories I know are in favour of a multi-racial, multi-religious, but unicultural Britain where we share one common British identity.
David Cameron wrote just last week “We instinctively reject multiculturalism” so where is the split there?
Can’t see it. Bit of a nothing poll from Populus, except insofar as it goes to confirm that Labour MPs are wildly out of step with pollster’s record judgements of the British people.
14 - my post was before I read yours, David Herdson, and wasn’t directed at it. But although I agree that public opinion on some of these things is also divided, many politicians believe that the public doesn’t want parties to be divided, or necessarily to reflect the more atavistic urges - previous Tory leaders found that expressing a degree of sympathy for fuel blockaders, anti-paedophile rioters, and so on did more harm than good to the Tory cause.
15: test, the poll doesn’t ask about marriage, but about equal rights. I do support that, and I think you’ll find that most swing voters do too. You’re also misrepresenting the question on private schools - it specifically talks of people choosing to send their kids to state schools, not being forced to. It’s looking for a general expression of sympathy - Labour MPs think it would be nice if parents wanted to do this, Tory MPs disagree.
But the aversion to multi-ethnic Britain by half the Tory MPs is the key divider - a Tory party which has half its soul owned by seanT is not a plausible candidate for coalition with the LibDems.
1 & 5 - Thanks Alexander. It’s good to hear from you again.
The Betfair price has moved pretty dramatically towards Howard over the past week or so. It’s now pretty close to evens.
You sure you are not allowing your own views to colour your judgement? (We all do it, although we try not to!)
Mention of the Torygraph and Brown in the same passage once again!
Is it just me or does the Telegraph seem to have a bit of a soft spot for the PM in waiting?
Nick, you’re a fair guy so please do not mis-represent. I take your point on the choice element put to Lab MPs, but the question asked by Populus was NOT about a multi-ethnic UK, but a multi-ethnic AND multi-cultural one.
As such, impossible to answer. Yes, of course in favour of multi-ethinc and multi-faith. NO, of course not in favour of multi-cultural - we are all Britons and share, or should share, that overarching cultural identity.
and in asking about equal gay rights, that includes marriage. Gay rights campaigners are unsatisfied with civil partnerships and want the term changed to marriage, which also carries some additional benefits vs civil partnerships, although I can’t quite recall what they are!
Plus it’s libelling my party to say Sean T is a Tory. His views on race are utterly unacceptable and he’s no more a Tory than rapist-loving George Galloway, former Labour MP, is a Labour party member
OT. Richard Cook, the Vice Chairman of the Scottish Tories, has been handbagged by Scottish Party leader Annabelle Goldie for proposing the Tories support the SNP policy of a referendum on independence :
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/politics.cfm?id=950182007
13 Nick, that sounds fair - my only other political bet was in 1992 on Major winning the election and I got 7-1. I’m hoping not to lose my 100% record
Cameron’s speech today will highlight the choice to be made at the next election. Big State (that’s you), not quite so big State (that’s me); it’s the age old difference but after the Blair years it’s what’s going to make a comeback. How that plays out is not clear but I think it’s safe to assume there’s not going to be a landslide win for anyone next time.
12 - we had this the other day; you will NOT split the tories on Europe, that’s why Cameron has promised to support a referendum on the new Constitution and Ken Clarke has openly supported him.
I Think the Telegraph still considers itself a Tory newspaper, it just thinks that Cameron isn’t a Tory. The Telegraph does seem to have a soft spot for Brown, (he isn’t Cameron for a start) but even more amazingly the Daily Mail of all papers seems to be in the Brown camp.
What it shows is that a large percentage of Conservative MP’s are illiberal whereas hardly any Labour or Lib dem ones are. No surprises there. The difficulties for the Tories as Mike made clear in his article is that the Tory leadership are with Labour and the Lib Dems.
That any Tory should be surprised by these figures is odd. Just 18 months ago they were trumpetting the most right wing Tory leader in recent memory. And It’s worth remembering that though the electorate might harbour prejudices and a certain xenophobia doesn’t mean they don’t expect better from their politicians.
The “Daily Torygraph” previews Cameron’s big speech. The so called “Save Dave Speech” !
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml;jsessionid=HTPTFWGJWJTODQFIQMFCFFWAVCBQYIV0?xml=/news/2007/06/18/ncameron118.xml
Test: fair point about the multi-ethnic/multi-cultural question being a dual one, though you should note that half the Tory MPs and nearly all the Lab/Lib ones disagree with you in rejecting even part of this as positive. But few gay rights campaigners care about the ‘marriage’ label, regarding it as a provocation and distraction from real issues.
seanT says he votes Tory (faut de mieux), though I accept his support may not be welcome - we all have voters whose views we don’t share, after all. I was using him as shorthand for the view that a multi-ethnic, multi-religious, multi-cultural society (taking the three as a group, as in the Populus question) is a bad thing. The LibDems will not IMO want to be in Government with a party where half of the MPs think so.
23 Kingbongo - Remember to enter the bet under ‘Political Betting Recorded Wagers’. Mike has put a link up aside.
In the event of a dispute, Mighty Fella offers his services as independent arbitrator.
18. PtP the thing I enjoy most about this site (and the contributors such as your good self) is that notwithstanding our own views, we talk about what is happening and is likely to haappen, rather than what we HOPE is happening.
Rudd is still very much in the box seat and clearly looks on track at this stage in my opinion. Regardless of my personal views.
Its good to see the Tories have seen sense on this one
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml;jsessionid=D5CQ3T5FVUQVTQFIQMFCFFWAVCBQYIV0?xml=/news/2007/06/18/ntories118.xml
Mr Swires’s career could be engaging reverse gear.
28 thanks I will - I’m sure Mighty Fella’s services won’t be needed but just in case I feel he should be reminded that if I lose then the cats benefit
Meanwhile …. Bruce Anderson in the “Indie” says that Cameron must shed the image of a “well intentioned toff” in order to win an election.
Tally ho !! to that Bruce :
http://comment.independent.co.uk/columnists_a_l/bruce_anderson/article2669854.ece
Roger at 25 has till to give us his view on Margaret Hodge’s recent intervention on immogration. After all she has so many personal similarities to Roger, wealth, background and do as I say and not as I do socialism.
Also Mr Palmer refers to the cultural similarity betwen Labour and Liberal Democrat MPs. Like (Lord) John Thurso and Dennis Skinner.
Hugo Squires U-turn is a good pointer to why the Tories have lost their way recently. Instead of running their focus group before announcing policy they have become careless and started doing them after.
30 certainly we must retain free admission, it was an unfortunate gaffe and I am glad to see the immediate reversal forced by cchq
O/T France - Final results
Seats needed for majority: 289
UMP 324
PS + allies 205
Nouveau centre 22 => former Bayrouists allied to UMP
PCF 18
Green 4
MD 4
The surprise of a closer score than expected provides the press with the opportunity to present a majority of 115 for Sarkozy as a kind of defeat… Sometimes I despair of French media.
Obviously, the exagerated projections after the first round and the scare stories about the “blue tsunami” have helped a better turnout of left-wing voters while many right-wing ones did not bother to vote, thinking the landslide was already there. The bad coverage about “social VAT” this week did not help but the key was this difference of turnout. MD voters seemed to back PS candidates in a large majority, a factor helping the PS to get as many as 50 constituencies according to experts from the parties.
Concluding remarks after a very long and tiring electoral year:
- the UMP is at present France’s “natural party of government”, while the PS, still in doubt about its strategy is happy to get “good defeats”. The smiles of socialists yesterday night on TV are the best proof: lose not too badly is now an honourable result…
- for all the talk about women in politics, French voters refused to back Royal in the presidency and only elected 107 female MPs (18.57%), a bit more than the 71 of the former assembly but still far away of the official aim of “parity”. The PS has 48 female MPs (23%) and the UMP 45 (14%).
- the massive turnout of the presidential election was short-lived, electors being fed up by too many election week ends.
- Bipolarism of politics is even clearer than in 2002: even if there will be 4 groups in the national assembly as in the former one, the new centrists only have a group thanks to the UMP (that supported their candidates) and green, communists and other leftists from the overseas territories will have to ally to get a group (more than 20 seats).
Pot and kettle. You must be weighed down by the chips on your shoulder!
26,
Jack W - Why is it the “Save Dave” speech? (Apart from that being the description from the Labour Party Chairwoman)
30 Good, but I hope the bloke isn’t going to be pilloried for acknowledging a mistake.
31 Kingbongo, Fella assures me that his judgement will not be impaired by knowing of the potential beneficiaries of the wager.
I should add that although a very good dog, he is the most terrible liar.
36 - Chris, Very many thanks for all your analyses and comments these last months. Hope you will remain an active ‘peebeer’ and keep posting as our Paris political correspondent!
39. Unfortunately it wasn’t a mistake but a policy attempt thrown out like so many other’s by press criticism
What is amazing, is that the carnivores of the British political press are already eyeing up a new target, Dave! After months of feeding off Brown, they smell blood coming from Dave’s wounds. One poll giving Labour a lead and the pack will be off, their hunting cry, ‘Power without responsibility’ it will not be a pretty sight.
Roger @ 25 — if hardly any Labour MPs are illiberal, why do we have cctv everywhere, a burgeoning DNA profile database of anyone who’s asked the time of a police officer, and the largest jail population in Western Europe? Not to mention bans on guns and fags.
Surely many Labour MPs are authoritarian rather than liberal?
New bets on the PBC Recorded wagers page
Swire’s supposed to be a great chum of Dave’s although I do n’t know how effective he’s been as a spokesman with plenty of open goals - Tessa floundering, the Olympics etc.
On the Populus poll it may be that Labour MPs are liberal but I certainly do n’t think of the government as liberal. ID cards, a welter of (ineffective) legislation on crime and immigration, all sorts of measures interfering with civil liberties.
26/43 Describing Daves speech as the ‘most important of his political career’ is a sure sign that they’re out for blood. This ‘most important speech’ wasn’t even mentioned on this mornings news.
The spread of Tory MPs views is much closer to the spread of opinion in the voters overall. So this may be a tool to demonstrate the gap between Labour and LibDems and the electorate.
29 Thanks for that Alexander.
Please be assured that I wasn’t casting aspersions on your judgement, let alone your integrity. It’s just that we all have a perfectly understandable tendency to back what we want to happen. Success at political betting depends on being able to distance one’s hopes from one’s judgements, and to spot the value in the markets caused by others betting with their hearts rather than their heads.
Your earlier posts strongly suggested a Labour victory but we’ve observed a movement back towards parity in the markets. I was beginning to wonder whether you’d fallen victim to your own hopes but I accept your assurances without hesitation. It seems that now would be a really good time to bet on Labour.
Would it also be worth a punt on Howard to lose his seat in Bennelong (3/1)?
By the way, as evidence that I can at times show extreme objectivity and bet contrary to all my hopes, I offer in evidence the £300 I had on Australia to win the last Ashes series. Can you believe I got odds of 4/6? Jeez, us Poms, eh?!
32 - Silly old Coote…you ignored the only interesting part of the article
“..There is nothing wrong with - indeed everything right with - the Honourable Nicholas Soames. But it does not help to win power if you are seen as the party of, by and for Nick Soames….”
Does our Jack have something of the Brute about him? ;). For a start, they are both 104, not averse to a wee dram or 250, and sadly Scot…(oops)
38 Andy C. That’s why I called it the “so called” save Dave speech.
The Beeb has also used the phrase this morning. Clearly media hype.
44. Good question! I defer to our resident Labour MP! Perhaps it’s just two or three MP’s who have climbed the greasy poll and become Home Secretary?
Why would the Lib Dems want to be in coalition with either party? Labour and Tories manifestly detest the Lib Dems far more than they do each other or, for instance, they do the BNP.
It seems to me that they also take every opportunity in the House of Commons to shout abuse at Lib Dems until a reluctant Speaker eventually intervenes.
I think some of these questions are very leading and ambiguous, which explains the mix more than other things. For example, a Labour MP might assume equal rights for gay people equates to having civil partnerships with the same rights as marriage. Wheareas some Conservatives might take full “equal rights” to mean gay people should be allowed the “right” to marry, which they’d be uncomfortable with. Equally some of the other questions are designed to put people who answer a certain way in a bad light.
The question “the diverse mix of races, cultures and religions now found in our society has improved Britain” can be interpreted differently. Personally, I believe that race and religion are all morally equal so while I have absolutely no problem with the increased ethnic mix, I don’t think it has improved Britain just as I don’t think its made Britain any worse. Therefore I’d answer no to the question.
The third question asks “one of the things that would MOST” improve Britain. Its quite possible someone would be entirely supportive of increasing tolerance and think it would improve the country to extend it, but they don’t rate it in one of the top two or three things to improve life. Thus its not one of the things that “would most” improve Britain, and they might rank it behind improving the voluntary sector and decreasing family breakdown.
As for the private schools question, I should point out that there’s a bigger split in the Labour party than the Conservatives. A 15% dissenting view in Labour and a 7% dissenting view in the Tories, so thats against your point Mike. And the last question is just an assessment of the current state of Britain, there is absolutely no view judgement thrown in there.
The main thing I would take from this survey isn’t that the Conservatives are horribly anti-liberal - we would have to see less ambiguous questions on less vague statements to gain insight into that - but that huge sections of the party are still horribly naive in presentational matters. They fail to see how a reasonable and legitimate view can sound so bad when they answer questions like this - questions which ask one thing but imply another when someone hears the results without really analysing the answers that much.
I really dont get what light these poll figures shed on anything.
What ist saying is that the Tory types are different from the Labour & Lib Dem types. I’d be pretty damn concerned if they weren’t.
On Australia, if Howard makes a comeback and gets in again, I’d be very very surprised.
Witan, do you really mean that the views of Tory MPs correspond with those of the entire electorate? From Communist, to Anarchist, to Fascist and everything in between?
You may be right, which is why poor old Cameron has so much difficulty whenever he tries to identify a policy. Whatever he says, most people are against it!
This explains the series of U-Turns we are seeing on Tory policies: grammar school, museum charges and whatever is still to come. No wonder the Tories are moving into a “Save Dave” mode. It’s the only thing that unites them.
Nick Palmer “But the aversion to multi-ethnic Britain by half the Tory MPs”.
Where does this poll say this. PC spinning again from you. As David H says the question conflates two issues of ethnicity and culture. The majority of the population would want to be ethnically tolerant (your ethnicity is something that is fixed) but would accept that multiculturalism has been divisive and disruptive and, as even Labour politicians now agree, is not something that is particularly helpful in social cohesion and maintaining a national political philosophy.
50 John O. Indeed. A terrible attack on our Soames, who remains not only a wonderful advert for fine living and plenty of it but also the living embodiment of the life of milk and honey in Conservative times !
May I also endorse your thanks to Chris from Paris.
44. How is it “illiberal” to ban guns and prevent public smoking. The liberal mantra of people like John Locke is that governments exist to protect “life, liberty and property” when it is threatened by others. If someone is allowed to own a gun - an advanced piece of killing machinery - and to take it home with them, than that threatens my life and right of security, so its liberal for the government ot protect it. Equally, smoking in public places threatens my health (and thus life) if I am present so thus banning it is the liberal thing. Overturning the smoking ban or allowing a free for all regarding personally-owned weapons isn’t liberal, its libertarian - which is something quite different.
I do agree with you on the ID cards and CCTV issue though. Not to mention this governments acceptance of hear-say evidence in court, the use of executive control orders handed out without a jury, and allowing US flights taking people to be tortured through Britain.
58- Thanks John O and Jack W.
Next stop: city councils elections in april 2008.
29 Alexander - further to my earlier post, I should add that I intend to show more evidence of my objectivity later this week by backing Australian horses to win the major sprints at Ascot!
56 no Tressage, I am suggesting the spread is more reflective of the electorate overall. Although, I agree with tjm that the question themselves make responses difficult to interpret.
Meanwhile II …. In the States the political Thanksgiving turkey might never be the same again as they prepare to get Paxoed !!
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/b27be204-1d04-11dc-9b58-000b5df10621.html
NOt sure about chips on teh shoulder but Roger still refuses to let us have his view on Margaret Hodge. Why? He has views on everything else
Quite, Witan. The wider the spread of opinions within the ranks of the Tory MPs, the easier it will be for them to fragment, just a soon as Mr Cameron decides to start putting forward some real policies.
That, I think, is the point of Mike’s article.
60 Keep it coming, Chris from Paris. You’ve taught us much about French politics and helped us keep our wallets full in the process!
How about the same Populus survey on MP’s views on Trident,New Nuclear power stations,higher income tax bands & an immediate withdrwal from Iraq.
Tressage No. On that basis the Labour ‘big tent” would have dissolved by now. A spread of opinion in any party is healthy and Labour have done well in that respect, although one of the signs of decline demonstrated in the Deputy contest is how this big tent is more and more forgotten as the candidates try more and more to be ‘radical’.
Save Dave has some appeal even if its way over the top, but catchy for the media.
Its better than been percieved as a well meaning Tory Toff, as Cameron well knows by trying to dispel this notion from gaining traction with the general public, by meeting the Mirror editor, and getting feedback from his focus groups.
Pot and Kettle: Or like (Lord) Tony Benn and Paul Holmes?
As for “Save Dave” - the right-wing media are just building the speech up as a critical speech so that they can triumphantly declare it a success this evening and say that Dave is saved…
This is a nothing story, really. The sample is appalling, and ask yourself a question - what sort of Conservative MP is most likely to respond to a poll like this?
Meanwhile …. Melanie Phillips of the “Daily HateMail” isn’t expecting a call from Cameron to serve as a policy advisor any time soon !! Ouch !!!!!!!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/columnists/columnists.html?in_article_id=462663&in_page_id=1772&in_author_id=256&in_check=N
70. I think the media-including the right wing press-are getting bored by these ‘declarations of intent’ and are starting to treat him as a figure of fun. We’ve already been told that Murdoch thinks he’s a lightweight and these ‘Grand Visions’ suggest that he has nothing substantive to say. He would be better remaining silent until he has.
Mike, I can’t see this is being all that important. It is to do with the nature of the questions for a start.
The ones on immigration are essentially asking people to say whether the last 10 years of immigration have been a good thing and as we are campaigning for controlled immigration the answer is obviously not, or rather that is how the question could be perceived.
As for tolerence of different ethnic communities, it does depend on what the person being asked the question thought they were being asked. This government is waking up to the need for integration. Previously tolerence meant (in terms of the way the debate was cast) tolerence of things like people not learning English and forced marriage, and cranky hate filled preachers. Clearly intollerence is not good, but how you answer the question does depend on what is meant by tolerence.
73 Roger. It’s an indication of the potential dead wood media problems that Cameron has that only this morning the “Daily Telegraph” is seen as back on board project Cameron or at least not overboard !
The Mail remains a big problem. It’s lashing out at the fag end of Blair and monstering Cameron whilst appearing to give PM elect Brown a relatively fair wind.
They must be tearing their hair out at CCHQ. Clearly you’re disappointed !
30, 34, 35, and 46
Yes this embarrassment with the U turn on free admission just confirms the sort of issues that come up when one sees Hugo Swire’s political operations up close!
What I would like to know is whether Cameron was ever Swire’s ‘fag” at Eton - there seems to be about the right age difference.
64 - To be fair it isn’t just Roger. Very few Labour posters seem to want to comment on what Margaret Hodge had to say about housing. Or indeed what Gordon Brown had to say about British jobs for British workers.
Odd that, given the foaming at the mouth we would have witnessed from them if a Tory had said exactly the same thing.
75. The Mail is bashing DC for no reason other than Dacre and Brown are chums (the sort of chums where one has business interests that the other turns a blind eye to in return for coverage such as he’s getting now).
Why anyone would pay to reach such coverage is a mystery yet unsolved..
Question: How does a speech become “crucially important”? Answer- someone tells journalists it’s crucially important.
I’m not sure what in the content of the speech as trailed is so important, so I’m not sure there’s anythong other than a steady the ship message- which invites the question why it needs to be steadied.
My feeling is that the team around cameron are genuinely worried that they’re only a coupple of points ahead 2 years into the parliament and with Brown about to come in and announce shiny new things - while they are still fighting obscure policy battles. Hence the rather odd “trust” dividing line. Would Cameron trust a headteacher who wanted to bring in grammar school? Of course not.
The fact that they’ve put a press guy in charge of the policy commissions means that they think some of those are going to be horribly embarrassing too…
75.”They must be tearing their hair out at CCHQ. Clearly you’re disappointed !” But are they JackW?
If you are seriously trying to change the image of your party do you want the newspaper most associated with trumpeting those dog whistle issues to be your biggest fan? I know that the Daily Mail has a large readership and Dacre is an influential editor but the views expressed by them has not been reflected at the polls in the last 3 GE’s.
77. Max, its just absurd that a country should prioritise in favour of its own citizens.
Whats the world coming to if thats how government’s think?…..Madness I tell you….
By the way and somewhat OT, some interesting developments in Belfast with Alex Salmonds arrival.
There is much talk that he and Paisley are very matey at the moment and may be part of a Celtic pincer movement on Brown to squeeze more concessions, cash and control from him.
81 - Yokel I think ‘madness’ is the wrong word. Consulting my lefty-dictionary the term you’re looking for is either ‘racist’ or ‘hate crime’.
Chris D, Cameron ought not to the so concerned about changing the IMAGE of the Conservative party, when the underlying problem that he faces is its CHARACTER. If ever he managed to change that, there would be no problem with its image. But his difficulty is that he cannot change the nature of the beast without destroying it.
Of course I’ll reply. I just didn’t realize Pot and Kettle was being serious. I think Margaret Hodge is a waste of space and if it wasn’t that Tony Blair is finished and powerless and with other things on his mind he’d surely have sacked her for being useless and/or appearing a racist. As for British jobs for British workers that is a completely different question and one without any racist implication at all. I can see an argument for it though I don’t myself agree.
A friend of mine told me they advertised in a very small way for a junior in a very trendy establishment. They got 200 applicants of which 40 were Poles. The first thing they did was remove all the Poles and then everyone over 24. This got it down to 100 which was still barely manageable. Was it wrong? Probably.
Mike Smithson
One of your more interesting leads for a long time. My guess is that Cameron’s (and many in his inner circle) instincts are far more liberal, progressive and modern than he is prepared to show.
I would think Cameron’s personal views on issues ranging from drugs, crime and disorder, constitutional reform, immigration, education, even Europe would be much better suited in a more progressive party.
The situation is that Cameron is very talented, ambitious, and due to his family connections has found himself where he is now, namely in the wrong party. He is currently trying to make the best fist of things, but there is only so far he can push this ragtag group inhabited largely by zenophobic, diehard little England, hang em and flog em, royal family worshipping, living fossils known collectively as the Tory party.
I think if Cameron falls short at the next election, and feels that this is due to the wider unelectability of the Tories, and his inability to modernise them, he will jump ship, and attempt to realign British politics through the creation of a modern, progressive, centre right, liberal party.
This is exactly why the SDP was created, because the gang of four simply thought that the Labour party that was, was unreformable, and unelectable. Cameron may well come to this conclusion, but it will take an election defeat.
83. Yeah sorry, I forgot that such calculation in policy turns it into evil…Monday morning, partial brain function…
80 ChrisD. I’m a dispassionate and disinterested observer !!
The Mail helps prop up the core vote and is strong on the “female issues” and IMO has influence on certain aspirational swing voters. If at the least PM Brown manages to neutalize the pro Tory Mail effect it will be quite a coup (for whatever reason Jamie @ 78) and something even Blair never managed !
Re 79, Britspin, I would tell you where to look up the text of teh speech but that woudl involve a link to my blog and somebody would complain, so I wont.
Max, right on cue as well………I could suggest you are psychic but I think its just so easy to read the stock response that was going to come up that I couldnt possibly attribute such powers to you.
82 - They do seem a bit of an odd couple.
According to the Scotland on Sunday Paisley was asked what he was doing collaborating with someone who wants to break up the Union. He pointed out that Salmond had said he was in favour of the Union of the crowns if not the Union itself. Paisley then remarked ‘That’s my kind of Nationalist’!
Not sure how some of there colleagues will feel about it though!
The Wright Stuff Channel 5 on now …
“Has David Cameron Lost it?”
Happy days…
Spot on, Tyson (86).
Re 85, Roger, “A friend of mine told me they advertised in a very small way for a junior in a very trendy establishment. They got 200 applicants of which 40 were Poles. The first thing they did was remove all the Poles and then everyone over 24. This got it down to 100 which was still barely manageable. Was it wrong? Probably.”
Wrong? who cares, it is ilegal to discriminate against people on race, the race in question here being slav (though I may be wrong on that).
You did of course report him for racial discrimination didn’t you?
Peterthepunter: I’m sure Alexander Drake won’t have taken offence at your very mild comment; but it is worthy of remark, I think, that in his response to you he didn’t even mention that he is a supporter of the present (Oz) government, as shown by his comments on other websites (unless of course someone else is using his name). This shows a truly independent mind: he wouldn’t even reveal his allegiance to rebut an incorrect implication. I shouldn’t bother posting this if I didn’t think that, being so fair-minded yourself, you’d appreciate it.
91. Well Paisley is an Ulster Nationalist of sorts and always has been but its within a link to the UK in some form. He’s always been opposed to direct rule at heart.
More importantly though it is a strong alliance of circumstance, demand more self-rule while demanding more financial help from London. It really is having it both ways. They know that they can form a better unit of pressure as a single lobbying group. There’s an awful lot of interests between the Scotland & NI in particular on the economic and strucural front as well, such as electricity supply and so on.
Have no doubt though the DUP are the same as the SNP in that they like power and want more of it. Anyone who has seen the DUP types in Stormont would see that they are loving it. You can barely wipe the grin of their faces at the moment, so much so I begin to wonder just exactly what they know that we don’t. From what I have read and heard, the DUP is full of technocrats who know how to make the machines work and how to play the day to day political & adminstrative game, so they are like the proverbial pigs in do do at the moment.
It can’t last surely.
Johnathon (Watching TV at 11.30AM might not need an explanation but Channel 5!!
I don’t see how Labour can drive a wedge between the Conservative leadership and its MPs (and by extension members) on issues of race/immigration/culture because (a) they seem to be busily recanting (at least rhetorically) many of their errors over the past ten years and (b) they can’t afford to alienate their own core voters in areas where the BNP are challenging them.
FWIW, I would answer “No” to the question about different races/religions/cultures improving Britain.
Like others, I don’t consider Labour MPs any more liberal than Conservative ones. They’re just authoritarian about different things.
94 you might get away with the race one (just about) but this company is bang to rights on the age discrimination, which is now illegal. In fact they shouldn’t have been aware of applicants’ ages.
If I were you roger I’d shut up about my mate’s casual criminality. Advertising the fact you spend a lot of time in the company of idiots does though help confirm the source of your own intellectually challenged worldview.
98. What I cant understand is that is so many Labour MPs surveyed (91% no less) think Britain is a tolerant country why do they appear to be pushing so many initiatives to make it more tolerant?
84.”Chris D, Cameron ought not to the so concerned about changing the IMAGE of the Conservative party, when the underlying problem that he faces is its CHARACTER.” Tressage, I think you underestimate the charactor of the party at your peril, but hey if you want to think that the only people who would now consider voting Conservative fit certain posters “prejudiced” views then you should have a stiff drink ready come election night. The image of the party was damaging our electoral chances and needed urgent attention just as other leaders in all parties have discovered at different times through the years.
88. I agree about the mail being strong on “femail” issues which is why I used to buy it, that and its strong money section for ordinary folk a couple of days a week. But even as a Conservative supporter I often found its political stance more off putting and harmful to the party leadership, I don’t think the paper has been that “pro” tory for a long time and well before the Cameron era.
95. I am indeed a supporter of the Howard government, and I indicated my right-of-centre preference in my first post on PB, I think. But that doesn’t mean I can’t distinguish my preference from what I think will actually happen at this stage - a firm ALP win since Kevin Rudd’s elevation to the Labor leadership. As I said, what I like about this site, is that you can call it as you see it, regardless of your personal preference. The true value of PB!
Nick P and Test please take the batteries out your Rabbit, put your p@antyhose back on, and chill out.
My views on race which you find so excitingly disturbing are presumably the ones I cited last week - when I said that, if we must have immigrants - and I think we must and indeed should - people from a predominantly white Judaeo Christian background are easier to assimilate into a white Judaeo Christian culture. Which is what we are, whatever Labour MPs may wish otherwise.
This is especially true and important at a time when we see major divisions between Muslims and the rest of us, and when some British Muslims - 5-10% of most polls? - actively want to kill the rest of us.
Hence I think, for the moment, we should favour immigration from the largely white, Judaeo-Christian EU, rather than the rest of the world - at least until we have properly assimilated those Muslims who are already here.
This is, of course, what is tacitly happening anyway - judging by recent government pronouncements, and the new points system etc. It’s also what most of the British people think, I am sure. It’s just my use of the word “white” that gets you guys rubbing yourself. At least I didn’t say “British jobs for British workers” like, er, Gordon Brown last week.
lol
When we have sorted out the present problems with mass immigration, and assimilated the unhappy minorities we already have, I am content to throw open the gates to the world once more, and let them all come - whatever creed, race, culture they are, whatever plumbing skills they possess. Let a thousand flowers bloom.
As for the poll results, I think it shows Tory MPs reflect the divided views of the British people on these vexatious issues. Because the British people actually are unsure on these issues - go and ask them about race, gay marriage, immigration and multiculturalism and you will get a bracingly wide range of views - I assure you. What you will not get is the truly disturbing 99.9% Stalinist agreement on the brilliance of multiculti Britain that we see in the Labour ranks. What a busload of robots.
And no, I’m not a “Tory”, as I have said ad nauseam.
OT - but this will warm the cockles of many a Conservative and LibDem heart.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/6763205.stm
QUOTE:
BBC ‘must become more impartial’
The BBC needs to make greater efforts towards impartiality, according to a report commissioned by the corporation. . .
The report also quotes former political editor Andrew Marr, who says the BBC has an “innate liberal bias”.
The BBC is also advised to remember that there are points of view not represented by the UK’s two main political parties, which should be addressed in its programmes.
END-QUOTE
The BBC don’t stint themselves in their self-criticism. Even the weather forecast gets attacked for bias!
89. I read it at conhome…
“Not abandoning Conservative principles, but applying them in new ways to new challenges.” - If Cameron was a DJ, Prescott could sue himfor sampling his 1996 hit “traditional values in a modern setting” without attribution..
Some awful lines… “an amazing country in this amazing century?” Oh dear. “Your life is just that – yours, not mine.” errr. Right.
The speech seemed to be saying. “Look guys, I’ve got a plan, honest.”
He keeps banging on about how he trusts people and brown doesn’t but I read it thinking but if you trust professionals and local people, why shouldn’t museum directors be able to charge if they want to, or local councils set up grammar schools, or heads not stream classes?
Then there’s the “society not the state” stuff. I can understand where he’s going with this, but at the moment it’s meaningless. Harnessing the power of voluntary organisations to get people off incapacity benefit? great. Wonderful- but how are you funding them then?
I can’t read this as anything other than a “trust me, I’m a tory really” speech to his own supporters.
105, ““Not abandoning Conservative principles, but applying them in new ways to new challenges.” - If Cameron was a DJ, Prescott could sue himfor sampling his 1996 hit “traditional values in a modern setting” without attribution..”
Didn’t Reggie Maudling first come up with the exact phrase “traditional values in a modern setting”?
BTW It seems I was on to something about Brown and the EU Referendum - for those of us who were arguing about this, on the thread last night. The Daily Mail reiterates this today:
“Gordon Brown dramatically raised the stakes on Europe last night by threatening to let the British people have a referendum on the results of this week’s critical summit.
In a clear warning to Tony Blair he offered to put the next European treaty to a popular vote if it fails to take account of Britain’s objections”
This is partly politicking - forcing Tony’s hand in Berlin. But I don’t think the Mail would directly quote its chum Gordon unless there was an underlying reality.
I’m starting to wonder if Gordon actually will spring a few surprises. Calling a vote on the Treaty - if it is signed, and I am sure they are doing their best to scupper it - would be a big surprise. Calling a vote, without having to be harried into it, would be honest, correct and of course the moral thing to do. So the very opposite of Tony Blair.
105-Britspin- Cameron was on 5 live this morning, and Campbell was simply extracting the urine, calling him wibbly, wobbly. I think to be mocked, and made fun out of is much, much worse than being seriously challenged. Look at what happened to Major.
Unless Cameron gets some serious policies actually into the discussion he is going to be increasingly made a figure of fun.
The kind of inane spin you mentioned here is just vacuous nonsense. Strategically the Tories are in danger of losing the next election in the next few weeks,and could up in a position (in terms of public and media perception) that they cannot recover from. What a pity!!!
106. I can’t find any reference to him doing so, but I’m no expert on maudling. Lewis Baston might know.
Alexander Drake @ 102: Quite apart from the fact that I enjoy both your and PtP’s posts, I should be sorry to see any dissension between two of the most illuminated and illuminating (that should be good for a bit of comment; I’m still waiting for the once-promised story by the unlikely combination of Andrea, Benedict White and Francis about the Illuminatus standing as a local councillor)) posters on this site. I might add that when a supporter of Party X posts that said party is unlikely to do well in a certain case, it boosts my confidence in the poster’s support for his/her party in another case.
I had thought that the reason for the Mail’s great love-in with Brown was so that their conversion back to the Tory cause would be all the more dramatic. Surely it is imminent. “More joy in heaven over on esiner that repenteth” and all that..
Re 105, Britspin “He keeps banging on about how he trusts people and brown doesn’t but I read it thinking but if you trust professionals and local people, why shouldn’t museum directors be able to charge if they want to, or local councils set up grammar schools, or heads not stream classes?”
In actual fact most of the musems I take my family to do charge an entrance fee.
As for not streaming classes, that is an interesting one, as it is one of the few rules we will bring in.
The rest is more about backdrop. That is the backdrop of trusting people rather than the state. The real attack will come when areas where the state does not trust people are highlighted at which point we will see if it works.
This ‘Save Dave’ message cannot be far from reality. We have Melanie Phillips in the Daily Mail today with a whole page on (or rather against!) Cameron saying that basically he’s a ****head. If the Tories cannot get the unequivocal support of the Daily Mail then there will be icebergs heading up the Thames before they win a General Election. Not saying that the Mail will not turn but, as things stand, they and the Telegraph are doing a pretty good job of subverting him.
On the wider question of ‘liberalism’ I think the jury is still out on what Cameron thinks personally, or indeed whether he thinks, or whether the public ‘pitch’ is as cynical as anything Tony Blair ever did. Whatever it is, we are not seeing it hit the Tory grassroots. There is one rabid Tory supporter in my local media perpetually trying to tease the Lib Dem EuroMP over his position on Cannabis decriminalisation, presumably unaware that his own party leader has all but admitted using slightly stronger drugs during his youth and that, if all Cannabis users had been criminalised and successfully chased as any kind of police priority, then there would be few of the present Tory ppcs who were able to visit Mr Cameron in the 80s from outside rather than inside prison.
I notice that Alan Johnson has moved odds-on (1.78) for next Lab DL on Betfair. What to people think about this?
Personally I feel that it is a big overstatement as with preference voting and six candidates the transfers make the result very difficult to predict. Although he is uncharasmatic and has performed poorly in the campaign, Benn (3.35) is surely a fairly compromise candidate to pick up transers from all over, and Harman (8) represents IMHO very good value as she has performed well in the campaign, is politically middling, and is a woman, all of which should help her pick up transfers when Hain and Blears are eliminated.
Thoughts?
105. “The speech seemed to be saying. “Look guys, I’ve got a plan, honest.””
as in: “I’m a pretty straight kind of a guy..” ???
Tories split? They wouldn’t know how to begin such a manoevre. Even with a leader espousing policies alien to their beliefs, their ranks never waver for a second.
113. The one guaranteed way the Tories will win back the Mail (and other papers) is through Europe, if Labour try to force the Treaty through without a plebiscite. Gordon knows this, so does DC.
Hence Brown’s cat-on-a-hot-tin-roof impression vis-a-vis the referendum issue.
I find it ironic that Cameron has only to utter a few platitudes and pick a few token fights with the right of the conservative party on a few irrelevant social issues (eg Gay Marriage) for everyone on this forum to say that he is a ‘progressive’.
Has he changed the Conservative party’s stance on immigration? - no, he played the race card unashamedly this time last year. Has he embraced a more inteventionist foreign policy? - no, he still criticises the reconstruction of Iraq at every point and argues for a more ‘humble’ foreign policy. He has said nothing concrete about social exclusion, nothing about public services and has opposed the government’s respect agenda at every stage. Indeed, parts of his agenda, such as hugging a hoodie, cutting museum funding and claiming that the word Islamist should be not be used by the media are not ‘progressive’ at all.
Indeed, apart from a few cosmetic differences, Cameron is no different from Michael Howard.
109, britspin,
The phrase definitely rings a bell from Baston’s book on Maudling, “Reggie”, which I read a while back. I don’t have my own copy (was a library book), so I can’t check up on it.
(Good book, by the way. Recommended)
seant. I agree Europe is something that distinguishes Labour from the Tories. Labour cannot appear to be too federalist as this will repel many English voters, however the Tories cannot appear to be too Eurosceptic and from experience I know at a least dozen EU citizens risiding in England who let me know that they voted Labour in the council elections because they see Labour as pro-Europe. I have found EU citizens to be very political and left leaning (but patriotic) and those living in the UK will vote for the most left wing Euro-friendly party, and at the moment that’s Labour. I just don’t know for how long it will take before the one million plus non British EU citizens are able to vote in UK General Elections - the EU voter could swing the next GE Labour’s way if they are given the opportunity to vote and that is why Cameron can’t appear too eurosceptic. If the continentals are allowed to vote in the next GE don’t be surprised if there is hung parliament or Labour victory.
120. Then what we must do is send millions of angry Tory pensioners to go live in Spain, so they can vote down the Constitution from there.
We’re halfway there already.
120 I’m also acquainted with some EU nationals who are anything but europhile.
114 The prices on betfair have been out of line with the facts on the ground since they started this particular book. Cruddas’s current price does not much up with the fact that he has a good chance of coming first in both the members and affiliated org sections, he might struggle to get transfers in the MPs section though. I think Benn will struggle his campaign has been poor relying mainly on name recognition, this has been reflected in his price drifting over the past few weeks, my guess at the moment is that he will be fourth in the list of first preferences. I did think Harman had a good chance but am now not so sure as she seems to be seen as too southern and metropolitan. I think Johnson is favorite mainly because he clearly has a big block of support in the PLP.
Has Spain already signed up to the constitution? If so it’s too late. I have nothing against the EU citizen having voting rights if living in the UK (you must think I’m mad) - I just don’t a full blown federal Europe without a referendum.
122. Are they left wing but eurosceptic? Maybe someone can come up with some stats.
OT. Will the “not so conservative” Fred Thompson stand scrutiny in the GOP race :
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19263100/site/newsweek/
124. I was kinda joking. I think the present arrangement is about right - EU citizens who aren’t British subjects should be allowed to vote in council and mayoral elections etc, but not national referendums or generel elections. The same should apply to us when we are abroad in the EU.
I think my views on the EU referendum are fairly well known!
OT. The immigration debate in the GOP threatens to further erode their hispanic support :
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/viewpoints/articles/0617bolick0617.html
127 Will the constitution if signed allow them to vote in a GE? Or is this just another Labour Party aspiration to gain more votes by allowing them to vote in the future?
Does the laughable “Save Dave” line now being floated by an increasingly-desperate Labour Party not unwittingly help the Tories in the same way that the petty “Dave the Chamelon” campaign boosted him then, contrary to expectations?
It’ll be more a case of “Save Gordon” if the long-awaited “bounce” continues not to materialise. Waiting for Labour to take the lead in the polls is like waiting for Norman Lamont’s much-promised “green shoots of recovery” to appear all over again…
129. No, I don’t think it will.
BTW I just read Tony Blair’s latest remarks on the EU in the Commons. It was the usual mix of patent fibs and craven spin, wearily varnished with that self deprecating “charm” that doesn’t work any more. Yeah Tony. Go tell the corpses in Iraq, dude.
But then, as I sighed my way through the speech, I got the sudden and striking feeling: Hey, who cares, it doesn’t matter what he thinks or says, this lying skunk is history!
It was quite a nice feeling.
It’s more than just the Labour party saying Cameron’s honeymoon is well and truely over.
WRT the the earlier comments, the Conservative Party does not need to be changed by Cameron or anyone else. What it needs is a makeover; an image change - and that is what he is providing.
The Conservative Party is inately in tune with the instincts of the British people - free market, liberal and yet traditional, nationalist (with a small “n”), Royalist, Eurosceptic, environmentally sensitive but not fanatic and with a social conscience.
Unlike the Labour Party of the 1980’s we do not need to junk everything we ever believed in! ie Unilateralist, anti-capitalist, big state etc.
Our problem was not the policies we advocated but the impression gained that we didnt care about some sections of society and the stupid, arrogant behaviour of a small number that tainted the impression of the rest of the party.
Cameron is a break from the past and a fresh image for the party. He will have a lot of trouble if he tries to become too “progressive” and ditch the party’s traditional stances on defence, law’n'order, the Monarchy, choice and freedom etc.
The next few months will be fascinating for political observers as all three of the bigger parties wrestle with their identity and their public image!
130 - I think “Save Dave” might be more of a “Hug a Hoodie” - a good line from a Labour MP that will stick.
130 - I think “Save Dave” might be more of a “Hug a Hoodie” - a good line from a Labour MP that will stick.
How long did Cameron’s honeymoon last? And why has it taken him so long to get over it?
130 Bob. We’ve already had a bounce from the warm glow of the impending Blair departure. The Conservative lead now at around 3% compared to around 7% a few months back.
If the “Brown Bounce” is to happen we will begin to see it in the first few polls after the handover and then into late July. We’ll see.
…………………….
I thought I’d share with you the musing of a former Tory minister who advised me over the weekend that he thought the possibility of PM Brown going to the country in the Autumn was greater than many thought.
The Minister contended that the Brown honeymoon and some suprise announcements, possibly on Iraq and some eye catching policies might be as good as it gets for Brown. Together with some recent shacky policy proposals from Cameron and Brown polling well against Cameron might provide a window of opportunity for Labour.
It’s a reasonable analysis but I think Brown to be more cautious and unlikely to wish to be known as one of the shortest term PM’s on record !!
137. JackW, I was just thinking the same thing about Brown. I do think the “safest” period for a Labour victory would be later this year, but alas I do not think that Brown has that “courage” gene which saw Mrs Thatcher, Blair or Cameron willing to take the iniative/gamble to win their leadership contests.
138. should have spelt initiative.
From the article:
Roughly nine out of ten Labour and Lib Dem MPs agree that “if we were starting with a blank piece of paper and designing a health system for scratch, we would still create something very much like the NHS”, but only two fifths of Conservative members agree.
That’s quite worrying. Sixty years on, with the experiences of the many healthcare systems around the world, 90% of Lib Dems and Labour MPs would still come up with something pretty much identical to the NHS. I guess the Orange Book didn’t really catch on with Lib Dem MPs.
Matthew JCG Partridge: Is your real identity perhaps Andrew Roberts? As in his article here for the BBC:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6636091.stm#roberts
“WRT the the earlier comments, the Conservative Party does not need to be changed by Cameron or anyone else. What it needs is a makeover; an image change - and that is what he is providing.”
Cameron certainly doesn’t agree. What a clear statement from RikW on what’s wrong in the Tory “party”
138 ChrisD. This particular former Conservative minister is one whose judgement I trust. I wasn’t offered any odds as we both thought it more unlikely, just that I was far more sceptical !!
137. If Brown were to decide to go to the country early his big problem will not be the Tories, or the LDs, it will be how on earth will the Labour Party fund the campaign.
Having said that I feel that it is unlikely that the Labour Party could hold into a poll lead for long after the “Brown Bounce”. With the LDs not exactly setting the world on fire at the moment it could be a good time to call an election.
Which party (Labour or Tory) does best out of a strong/weak Lib Dem vote? For example does a stong LD vote mean more LD gains from Labour than LD gains from Tories and therefore actually make a Tory majority more likely?
140 I don’t understand this fanatical attachment to the NHS at all. Socialist and Social Democratic governments in other countries had exactly the same aims for health care as the Atlee Government did after the war, but went down a different (and more successful) path.
I fully agree with these socialist principles of universal health care for all, but I don’t understand why the only methods that anyone will discuss to provide this care is either the NHS or Private. Why is it such a sacred cow? What’s wrong with admitting that there may be a better way of achieving the same original high-minded goals by adopting a completely different mechanism to the NHS?
137- I’ve also heard talk from an individual in the Brown office that they have been seriously considering an early election, But for slightly different reasons.
Myself, I cant see it as anything more than considering every option, but understand that the
” Cameron is all over the place and isn’t supported enough” view gained much more strength over the past couple of weeks and the temptation to inflict another defeat on what is still judged to be a fragile makeover has been growing.
As you say though, I cant see Brown going for it until he’s absolutely certain it could set the Tories back 8+ years .
I suspect its a natural reaction to Camerons recent troubles.
137- I’ve also heard talk from an individual in the Brown office that they have been seriously considering an early election, But for slightly different reasons.
Myself, I cant see it as anything more than considering every option, but understand that the
” Cameron is all over the place and isn’t supported enough” view gained much more strength over the past couple of weeks and the temptation to inflict another defeat on what is still judged to be a fragile makeover has been growing.
As you say though, I cant see Brown going for it until he’s absolutely certain it could set the Tories back 8+ years .
I suspect its a natural reaction to Camerons recent troubles.
Could igniting the Europe issue actually be good for Labour as it might get UKIP to take away more Tory votes?
86 Good !
144 Which party (Labour or Tory) does best out of a strong/weak Lib Dem vote? For example does a stong LD vote mean more LD gains from Labour than LD gains from Tories and therefore actually make a Tory majority more likely?
Historically, that was the case- the more the non Conservative vote was split the better for the Conservatives. In 1983, Lab-Lib split was around 28-26 and the Conservatives won a landslide. However, it isn’t driven by LD gains, rather Conservatives winning Con-Lab marginals on a split vote. Most marginal seats are Con-Lab.
148 Only at the margins. Most people who care strongly about the EU would be well-satisfied with the Conservative Party’s stance on the constitution.
143.JackW, I do not underestimate Brown but equally I do think that his political courage/acumen has been over hyped at times. He has given us a master class on how to become leader of the party he has lived and breathed all his life and also PM without a contest, but that does not automatically produce either a good, astute or brave PM.
IMHO his greatest chance of winning an outright victory would be to go to the electorate later this year whether he is ahead or behind in the opinion polls. The longer he leaves a GE the more chance that “events” could derail all of his carefully crafted strategic plans. I don’t think that he has that kind of courage or risk taking ability.
145,
Exactly. Why not use the French system? They’re hardly red-tooth capitalists over the Channel, but if you were to suggest their system to replace the NHS, there would be howls from many sources. And the French system is consistently rated number 1 in the world.
102 Thanks Alexander, that post does you great credit. I had a lot of respect for your views on the Oz scene before and all the more so now.
If I sounded sceptical earlier, it was because I was surprised by the move to Howard on Betfair. I guess you were too.
I’ll repeat this post at a time more convenient for you.
148 It’s so depressingly easy and obvious isn’t it !?
148 No it will just highlight the problems the government face over Europe which are always much greater than the problems an opposition party faces. Brown may talk big about a referendum over the new treaty but he’s going to be PM and it won’t be so easy. It’s an easy hit for Cameron; Brown can ignore Blair and offer a referendum but then he’s going to have to spend a lot of his time praying the new constitution disappears so he doesn’t have to fight one.
Of course he could decide to go for a referendum and support the NO campaign and have a GE on the same day and hope to get a working majority; at this point a new ‘amending treaty’ can be slipped through.
95 & 110 Pobedonoscev
Thank you for the kind and helpful remarks.
No I wasn’t aware of Alexander’s political allegiances and it says much for his impartiality that I guessed wrong. He is by no means alone amongst PB posters in being able to dissociate his political preferences from his betting judgement, but he definitely gets added to the list of those who can be relied upon to do so.
One small quibble. Any chance you could change your name to something a little easier to spell?
How about Qwertyuiop?
157. Isn’t that the name of your Greyhound?
86 tyson; if you’re going to give up on reasoned discourse and go for idiotic and insulting caricatures such as
“zenophobic, diehard little England, hang em and flog em, royal family worshipping, living fossils known collectively as the Tory party.”
could you at least spell the insults correctly? I thought you’d grown up a bit and got past this sort of rubbish - you’ve been reading too many of Will L’s billious postings.
PtP, look up Pobedonoscev in a Russian history book (or Wikipedia.) Crazy name, crazy guy!
158 Nope…but there was a very good horse called Azertyuiop.
Currently, the greyhound’s name is mud, but I expect that will change when it next wins.
152 ChrisD. I have a vested interest in an earlier election !
Jack W is 104.
Any talk of Brown and how he’s doing is a bit perplexing seeing as he hasn’t done anything yet. It looks like a case of projection to me. When he actually takes over power and has to make decisions is when we’ll get a beter feel for him.
The first few months are crucial, as Ming found. Give the public reasons not to believe or trust you in that time and they will stick to you for years.
As for going to the country in the Autumn, I can imagine opposition parties desperately trying to sucker Brown into it. I doubt he’d fall for it though.
163.”The first few months are crucial” Exactly, if Brown can’t win a working majority in a GE by the end of this year then his chances of being successfully diminish as time goes on.
“As for going to the country in the Autumn, I can imagine opposition parties desperately trying to sucker Brown into it. I doubt he’d fall for it though.” I think that they will have plans in place should Brown call an early election but I bet that both the main opposition parties would prefer a GE later rather than earlier.
156. I think people axeggerate the hit Brown would take if he called an EU referendum and “lost it”.
He could, for a start, blame the situation on Blair. Blair will have signed it, not Brown. So Brown could stay neutral on the referendum and say “I’m leaving it to the British people” - thus keeping the Mail and Murdoch onside, to boot. Then he could go back to the Europeans and say “sorry guys, we need another rethink” - that’s what happened after the French and Dutch Noes, it’s just more of the same. The world wouldn’t end.
Or he could call a referendum after the next G/E, further diluting the impact of inevitable defeat, and neutraising the issue beforehand.
The stupid thing would be for him to call a referendum now and passionately campaign for a Yes vote and then lose (as he would). Then there would be collateral damage, as happened to Chirac.
Almost as stupid would be denying us a referendum, and losing the newspapers and giving Cameron a huge open goal.
Brown is clever, he has options. If the Treaty is signed and it’s anything like the Constitution I think he’ll go for option 1 or 2.
160 Thanks for the tip. Saved from more embarrassment.
Remember, I thought Augustus Carp was your real name.
159. Oh for gods sake Kingbongo he uses the moniker of a convicted rapist and one of life’s overall losers and now 21st century freak show.
Under the circumstances what do you expect if he goes for the basic approach?
All logic supports an autumn GE, Brown will want to ‘be his own man’ the one thing that will irk him is he’s living on Blairs mandate, he’ll want to shake that off, ASAP. The polls will be scrutinised, the runes will be read, if they are positive for Brown, end of September when the schools go back!! Peter the punter gave odds of 9/1 against, those will shorten.
141 - I agree with Roberts’ analysis of Blair post 9/11. However, I don’t agree with the characterisation that Blair’s domestic policies as poll driven. Blair’s domestic achievements, the minimum wage, reduction in child poverty and his refocusing of the primary and early secondary curriculum were major innovations. Of course there were some policies that were less sucessful (A-level reform, tutition fees) but even if he had retired before 9/11 he would still have a very good record on the domestic policy front.
168. Agreed. An election later this year or early next year also, very neatly, solves the EU referendum problem for Gordon.
Let’s say he calls a plebiscite for 2008, after the G/E in late 2007 early 2008. That pledge assures him the support of the Mail and Murdoch, and shoot’s Cameron’s eurofox. My guess is that, with the papers behind him, he would just win a GE - using his post-Blair bounce and meanwhile looking like the good honest democratic guy who saved Britain. He will also row back on Iraq, raking in the lost voters who went to the Lib Dems.
Once the election is over, and won, either he will win the referendum in the post-election afterglow (highly unlikely) or he will be easily able to ride out the collateral damage of defeat sure that the papers will be happy with their victory, and also because he can blame the whole shebang on Blair. And the next GE will be four years hence by which time everyone will have forgotten the referendum.
Bish bosh; job done. If I were him I’d go for it. But can Labour afford it, financially?
168 Coldstone - Well, a couple of days ago I stuck up a tenner at 7/1 on Betfair. It was best price then and still is. You are welcome to take it.
Don’t Labour (like the Tories) have large number of incredibly wealthy backers?
170. Labour will wait until there are at least another one million new voters (new British citizens) before calling an election. The Brown bounce is here, but he doesn’t need it - Blair will call his bluff and we’ll be signed up fully to the EU and a million non British EU citizens will vote Labour. It’s win win for them.
This just in from the Overwhelming Majority of Moderate Muslims news agency:
‘The award of a knighthood to the author Salman Rushdie justifies suicide attacks, a Pakistani government minister said today.
“This is an occasion for the 1.5 billion Muslims to look at the seriousness of this decision,” Mohammed Ijaz ul-Haq, religious affairs minister, told the Pakistani parliament in Islamabad. “The west is accusing Muslims of extremism and terrorism. If someone exploded a bomb on his body he would be right to do so unless the British government apologises and withdraws the ’sir’ title.’
174. fantastic, aint it.
173 - Has Will L got a new alias? Or do you write leaders for the Daily Express?
99. Kingbongo. Must be that ‘Monday morning’ feeling!!
A crumb of comfort for Cameron on yet another dark day……..If there had to be an article in the Mail that painted me as a congenital liar “leading a Party in panic-stricken disarray” I would prefer it to be the loony-tune Melanie Phillips than someone respected. Jacky Ashley interviewed her when her insane book ‘Londistan’ came out and if anyone took her seriously before reading that article they wouldn’t have after.
Tyson. Though I normally agree with most of your posts I can’t agree with 86. Where is the evidence that Cameron isn’t an opportunist Howardite/Thatcherite who will say anything that a focus group suggests?
Deputy Leader: Johnson tightening even further, buyer now at 1.82. Any news?
178. Is there counting of votes for this election as they come in?
179. Or some kind of impression available of whats coming in.
178 Don’t think so, Jan. It’s probably just a firming up of the view that he’s done enough to win.
179 I’ve been wondering that myself, Yokel. I think not but am not sure. It would certainly give plenty of scope for leaks.
Another interesting thing is the volume of bets. It was painfully slow until about 3pm and suddenly there’s an extra thousand or so staked.
Odd.
174 - a minister in a foreign government with strong links to the uk calls for a terrorist attack on a british citizen(s). It is outrageous and I doubt anything will be done about it.
177: Roger - “another dark day for DC”, “leader in hock to the focus groups” (have you ever heard of one Tony Blair, perchance?)…
…You’re either going to have to stop posting on here, or I’ll have to stop visiting the site.
I can’t take the pain from all the laughter whenever I read anything of yours. It’s all brilliant comic material, granted, but enough please!
“Deputy Leader: Johnson tightening even further, buyer now at 1.82. Any news?”
As he has been for the last month there is no-one who can come close. Only Benn stood a chance but the fact that he struggled to get the nominations should have given us a clue. He’s not good enough. I predicted nearly two months ago that it would be Johnson Benn Hain Harman Cruddas and Blears and apart from Hain who might change places with Harman I reckon for once I’m on the nail!
182. I’ve become convinced of this Peter since people started mentioning this Johnson tightening last week.
I’ve just left my market positions where they have been for some time being all green so havent really been following.
Its not saying that its rigged but because of the running voting process, all the votes aren’t going to be kept in a big box somewhere are they. There is probably some indications coming out.
On the other hand, maybe its just market sentiment chasing the money. People follow money Peter, as you know, because they think something is going on. I suppose it also depends on the volumes involved.
170 Yes, but what happens if say, Brown goes for an early election, and Labour return with c.300 seats (highly likely IMO)? It’s a victory of sorts, but it’s a very uncomfortable position for a government to be in.
http://www.odze.wordpress.com Please do you have any comments for my new site guy? http://www.odze.wordpress.com
Well that should stop the rush, Roger!
No, I’m only joking. I think you are right, near as dammit.
Hope so.
Sorry Shneur but other than changing party to a more progressive one where the troops aren’t in “disarray” (Copyright Melanie Phillips) I wouldn’t know what to suggest. I believe Benedict has a blog so perhaps he’s your man?
190 Peter
Didn’t a load of money go on Labour while the Dunfermline & West Fife byelection count was going on…..
174. Presumably, as this idiot is the ‘religious affairs minister’, then his comments can’t simply be dismissed as unrepresentative of Islam. I would assume that he could only be deemed acceptable to hold such a post in Pakistan provided he was considered suitably qualified (like having a legal background to be Attorney-General over here).
189 Not my scene, Schneur, but it looks a good blog. Good luck with it.
187 Yokel - Henry G would know the procedures but he’s on holiday.
Perhaps if NickP or SISOSIG are looking in, they may be able to help.
I cannot see any reason why the ballot should not remain secret until the appointed day, but this is the Labour Party we are talking about here. Who knows what happens in practice.
190. Unfortunately PtP my only bet is at 8/1 on Cruddas dated last November. I reckon I could get better odds now!
192 Exactly, Paul M. Don’t misunderstand. I’m assuming nothing from this little spurt. It could mean something, or nothing. But I’m always interested in sherp money movements, even if I’m not sure what they mean.
Fortunately I can be fairly relaxed about this one because Johnson is my best outcome, financially speaking.
196 PMSL!
Cruddas started at 150/1 and you managed to back him at the bottom of the market!!
Roger, please, please don’t give up the day job.
187. Yokel, Alan Johnson still available at Evens with Bet365 if you want to top up.
OT I see that Bertie Ahern is now scheduled for his tribunal visit in a few weeks time along with various AIB bank staff to discuss his large cash deposits. What’s the likelihood of this causing severe fallout and a resignation? Hills were offering 12/1 on a 2007 leaving date over the weekend but haven’t reopened the market today.
After all the talk of Cameron being the heir to Blair, it was interesting to hear Dave adopt the Blair-like verbless sentences in Tooting this afternoon.
Why do politicians love verbless sentences? They sound stupipd.
I suggested after the QT DL debate 4 days ago that if I was making a book I would go Johnson 4/6, Benn 5/2, Harman 6/1, Cruddas 9/1, Hain 40/1 and Blears 80/1. Betfair prices are now very close to this position. I’ve backed Benn today on Betfair so I’m finally nearly all green, with Johnson and Cruddas my two good winners. The others small profit/loss.
“Why do politicians love verbless sentences? They sound stupipd.”
Dynamic Expression.
For a new century.
Even ITV News is taking the piss out of Cameron with his ‘power to the people!’ While on the subject of ‘verbless sentences’…… I don’t usually watch ITV News but isn’t it poor? It started by saying “Paedophile Ring caught sending disgusting pictures over the internet….” The BBC wouldn’t use a word like ‘disgusting’ because if at all possible they avoid value judgements.
203 Roger. Wolfie Cameron !! :
http://www.nostalgiacentral.com/images_tv/citizensmith_3.jpg
………………..
**** BTW NEW THREAD ****
Exactly Jack! You’ve been watching the same news!!
I am happy to see this site so much. It is always nice to hear such good news as your site.
What with this being the week of the handover from Brown to Blair, I was going to name our latest beer - currently under the watchful eye of the BrewCam - in honour of this.
Any suggestions?
“Bitter Brooding Brown”?