Is it worth betting on an early general election?
June 29th, 2007
New spread market: How many weeks to go?
Spread-betting works best when it is linked to a specific numerical outcome such as “how many seats will Labour get?” or “how many states will the Democrats take in the 2008 White House Race?”. You look at the prices and decide whether the total will be lower, in which case you sell, or higher in which case you buy.
You choose how much you want to bet and that becomes your stake level. So if you think in this new market that Gordon will go to the country earlier than the May 2009 suggested by the prices you sell at the current 84.5 level. Should the polls continue to be good for Labour and Brown decides to risk it in, say, October this year the outcome might be 13 weeks. In that case your profit would be 84.5 minus the 13 multiplied by your stake.
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The seductive principle being that the more you are right the more you win and the more you are wrong the more you lose.
What can make this form of betting so tantalising to some gamblers is that you can close down your position earlier and pocket your profit or curtail a potential loss. So you are not betting on what will actually happen but your assessment of what other punters will do.
Thus over the past few months I’ve been trading the number of seats that Labour will get at the election buying and selling when I think that sentiment might change and the market will move.
So what about the new “Gordon Brown weeks” market that is featured? Is there value in the buy price 88.75 weeks or the sell price of 84.5?
What’s going to drive this, surely, is Labour’s poll position and punters’ assessment of whether Gord would take a gamble by going earlier. So if the Brown honeymoon continues and poll ratings look good then the spread will drop and there might be profits to be had.
But if the Brown honeymoon is brought to a stop by, say, poor Labour by election performances in three weeks then the chances of the parliament going to its full five year term will be seen as being greater and the spread will rise.
Mike Smithson
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O/T - Interesting article including good poll news for Al Gore:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uselections08/story/0,,2114538,00.html
the murdoch press did not welcome the new cabinet
http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,31-2007290830,00.html
Nuneaton & Bedworth DC Slough
Labour 862
British National Party 582
Conservatives 499
English Democrats 102
Liberal Democrats 83
Turnout 40.57%
2004 result Con 842 Lab 696 Lib Dem 292
2006 result Lab 792 Con 708 Lib Dem 346
BB
Note how low down the running order the new cabinet is in all the papers.
The public are not interested.
Sandwell MBC Charlemont/Grove Vale
Conservatives 870
Labour 801
British National Party 544
Liberal Democrats 238
Greens 71
2007 result Con 1460 Lab 970 BNP 768 Lib Dem 671
BB
(OT) to answer my own question from yesterday (about three or four threads ago): it has occurred to me that the statutory timetable for a by-election allows polling day to be on day 15 to 19, not necessarily day 17. Therefore 19th July is (just) possible. The timetable is far too short, IMHO. It is bad enough for candidates and agents (who have the luxury of not having to bother with leaflets) but it must be a nightmare for the administrative staff, who have no flexibility in their need to arrange ballot papers and postal votes etc.
(OT) Oh! I’ve just noticed the new line of pictures at the top of the page. Shouldn’t there be more people?
with strikes imminent in rail and postal services, Iraq getting ugly, real (rather than statistical)inflation and interest rates rising, I doubt he will want to test the water. He’s obviously decided to run a 100 day programme.
Possibly the strikers could be persuaded to postpone their actions, but unions are angry with Brown and might well not cooperate.
With Iraq still an issue, The Lib Dems are still a threat to labour at the ballot box. Cameron should open up on Brown on high interest rates and inflation.
My thinking goes - I think the housing market is going to drop significantly over the next 2/3 years. The economy has been built on a huge debt expansion and the banks have been warned by the central banks to ensure credit lending is sound.
So if the credit is withdrawn and the housing market falters, the public feel less well off and GB’s miracle economy is shown to be the sham that it is.
This makes me think that Labour will be well behind in the polls for several years and that GB will have to hang on for almost the full term before the economy improves and going to the country.
Now if all of that is correct GB’s best chance of winning will be to go as soon as possible. So I think that if the Labour vote keeps up in the byelections coming up then GB could go to the country in September otherwise may 2012.
may 2012. You sure, you expecting a war
How many of their candidates do Labour have in place? Even in unwinnable seats they need to select someone and an acceleration of that process would be one clue to an early election - if the process is still ongoing.
I really don’t think it’s likely there’ll be an early election this Autumn. Before the conferenes, it’s very difficult to maintain any kind of interest over the Summer season and there’ll be a lot of MPs, candidates, party officials and activists with holidays booked for then or just before. Gordon is nothing if not one for planning and a snap election always has to be run a bit on a wing and a prayer. After the Labour conference is a lot more possible logistically but there will still be a big risk balancing up to two and a half years with a guarenteed good working majority against five with the likelihood of a smaller majority - if one exists at all.
Another clue to the election date will lie in what GB announces in the next few weeks. Changes have a lead-in time and he will not only want to deliver on them but will need to be seen to be doing so. How long it takes to get results from his early initiatives will (if all goes well) should put a lower limit on the length of the parliament.
Finally, a quick word on the economy. Many (including me) have been surprised by its strength and continued expansion. Steve at [9] is right to point out the down side risks, but Gordon will be very confident that he has things under control. He has proved commentators wrong in the past and will expect to prove the naysayers wrong again. Whether he will do so or not remains to be seen, but I just don’t think he will ‘cut and run’ on that basis because his confidence is such that he won’t accept the need - and certainly won’t want to be accused of doing it when there is no better come back than ‘no, I’m not; trust me’.
I’d still expect May 2009 if things are going well and May 2010 if they’re not - and that’s the more likely (just).
10. Perhaps one of the consitution amendments is a return of the Septennial Act?
11. Brown has got tax wrong - the rates are too high. Interest rate rises have if anything been deferred to assist his coronation. It’s too late to cut and run. The chickens are already coming home to roost.
9. with inflation running at somewhere around 5-10%, house prices only have to stand still for three years to ‘drop’ relatively. The demand for housing is intense due to lack of new supply, increasing divorce rates and immigration.
Brown’s media and rebranding campaign looks less like a pitch for an election, but more a battening down the hatches targeted on sliding through the Constitution, while offering no referendum or any election, so that democracy cannot stop the process.
He hopes to maintain media backing by selling out on the Treaty, grub down the Lib Dems while exiting Iraq, and keep Cameron on the back foot.
His Achilles heel is the economy which has a far higher inflation rate than government statistics are permitted to reveal. Interest rates are heading for 7% this year. Hadly time to cut and run to the voters.
3. Terrible Tory result in Nuneaton & Bedworth. IIRC there was a byelection in that council also earlier this year in a Lab/Con wards and ended up with BNP over-taking the tories for second place
So what is Brown’s big constitutional announcement going to be?
From BBC this morning:
“Justice Secretary Jack Straw is expected to reveal more details of constitutional change after the special Cabinet meeting. He said: “It is about ensuring that our citizens are better represented, have a better sense of their rights and responsibilities and are able to enjoy their lives to the full inside our democracy.”
Commission on PR? Fixed term parliaments (as in Wales & Scotland)? Bill of Rights/Responsibilities? One thing we can probably be sure of, is that it won’t be an EU referendum.
BOmb in central London made safe by police.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6252276.stm
Looks like the terrorists were planning something for D+2 of Brown’s premiership. Plus ca change…
Not good results for Lib Dems either. On the basis of these two the Brown Bounce is impressive.
Still think Brown honeymoon will have gone by Christmas though. I am with Steve at 9 - Brown may have ended Stop-Go whilst he was chancellor but he has left Darling holding a faltering economy. With the B of E independent, and running about 6 months behind the game,he has no tools to do anything about it.
There won’t be an election this year. I wish there would be but there won’t.
13. House prices dropping in ‘real’ terms is not a problem, in fact it would be the best thing that could happen to that market.
When people sell houses the money that comes from the sale usually goes to pay for a new house. Even when someone is downsizing it will just mean that there is a little less left over than before and for upsizing households, the relative difference is less, making better housing available.
The other usual source is sale of inheritance or investment property. Again, because of the scale of rises in house prices in recent years, a couple of years with prices rising at 2-3% would not cause any great dent in the scale of profit.
The problem is that this scenario of sustained, low growth is rare. Prices usually fall outright or increase well in excess of general inflation due to the multiplying effect of interest rates. House prices falling would be a severe threat because of the negative equity that come with it.
16. Jeepers. If that IS a bomb, it’s somewhat gonna overshadow these “exciting constitutional developments”.
Talking of which - I note that the Mail has again called for an EU referendum today (perhaps no surprise) - but, more surprisingly, UNISON the Union have also called for one. Brown is being attacked from left and right on this issue. And even by the odd Lib Dem.
Things fall apart. The centre cannot hold.
Unison called for one, eh? Very interesting
14, 3: the combined BNP/Tory vote is well over 1000 though. Without the BNP’s presence, you suspect the Tories would have won that seat. Whilst the Lib Dems crumbled away in both Midlands seats reported above.
Depressingly high BNP votes in both of those seats, I’m fully expecting a shock at the next election comparative to Le Pen getting to the run off in the French Presidential. Nothing would be won (well, maybe one of the Essex/London seats) but there’s your big story.
This is one of the reasons why I totally oppose the main parties working together outside of coalitions, that disaffected vote is potentially huge at the moment and the BNP are in prime place to mobilise it. Distance must be maintained or the ‘they’re all the same’ vote will change the scene substantially.
21. Indeed.
However, Test, I’m afraid I’m gonna be a crashing bore on Iraq again. But there you go.
I was just Googling “bomb” to find out more about this London thing, but I got directed to Iraq news instead. I’d quite forgotten about Iraq during our domestic excitements.
Anyway here’s the latest news. At least 60 people died in Iraq yesterday. 20 corpses were found beheaded. Hundreds were injured. British and American soldiers were also killed. Basra is now collapsing into factional fighting as the Brits give up and withdraw; the US “surge” has palpably failed.
The UK has helped to devastate an entire country, we’ve caused more terrorism than ever, and we’ve “facilitated” the deaths of hundreds of thousands of innocent people. And all because of New Labour, because of government lies and ineptitude, and because in particular, of Tony Blair. To think that this man was given a standing ovation as he left the Commons is quite bizarre.
Historians may one day look at that Commons footage and think: WTF?
Page 1 of The Daily Telegraph’s Business Section - headline: “Markets fear global credit crunch.”
Page 2 headline: “Confidence in cheap credit could have had its last call”.
Page 3 headline: “Credit crisis threatens market as funds topple.”
Is someone trying to tell us something?
15. regional Parliaments
16. Sky News now reporting that the bomb was “potentially massive”.
Not quite sure what that means. But still….
26 - Brown has no mandate to introduce anything that wasn’t in Labour’s 2005 manifesto. If he wants to saddle us with any such nonsense, he should put his “new Government”’s manifesto to the public at a general election.
Could it be PR? He knows the game is up, so get PR in for the next GE and he can be sure of jumping into bed with Ming and staying in power, even if Cameron does get more votes and seats.
Talking of Ming, he was done up like a kipper on Question Time last night. Surely the game is up for him too? He looked a right old duffer. And Dimbleby massacred him.
Actually, I can’t help thinking Dimbleby would make an excellent Tory leader; I tend to think he’s broadly that way inclined.
25. Yes. see my post at 13. Greenspan, Clinton, Blair have all cut and run. Brown who’s created the credit binge in Britain will now collect. Hubris. Nemesis. The wheel turns.
23. the rise of the BNP continues. In polling, ‘others’ has gone from 8% in 2001 to 15% now. They never tell you which parties make up the 15% but UKIP seems to be a busted flush and are not growing at all.
Greens are part of it and Plaid, SNP. The unmentionable is the BNP. Their support might be rising as quickly as Liberal Democrat suport is falling, but as far as the media is concerned, they don’t exist so it’s hard to gauge.
The media blanking them helps them to win support. They blanked Sinn Fein in the media, and that helped them win support in the 1980’s and 90’s.
Of course Brown will go early and he’ll go this autumn. One he’ll want his own mandate, his desire to break with Blair is an overriding priority, two, Callaghan’s failure to go in October 78, (he’d have probably won) will haunt him. Such things as candidate selection, money etc are secondary considerations, candidate selection you can accelerate, money worry about that afterwards.
I know that you get yourself in a lather over Iraq seant (entertaining though it is) I don’t think it’ll be much of an issue at the next GE. When I was serving in the ME in an earlier unpleasentness, as far as arab deaths were concerned, (always refered to of course as w**s) we never gave a toss, in fact we thought they deserved it anway. Of our own people, sad of course, angry yes, but the two most vital pieces of equipment you draw from stores on your first day, a black sense of humour and a very thick skin, all moans are always met with the same response, ‘If you can’t take a joke, you shouldn’t have joined’
24 - you forgot to mention that a brutal dictator has been removed, who had attacked four of his neighbours and murdered hundreds of thousands of his own people; democracy has been introduced with three national votes to date, with very high turnouts in two of them; the minority Sunni no longer suppress the majority Shia; and the new Iraq is a friend of the democratic world!
Apart from that your summary was reasonably accurate!
31 Even though I’m not keen on capital punishment, (there are times when I do think it is appropriate) I’ll raise a glass to the hangman when Chemical Ali gets topped.
31 yes.
The war was right and just. The post-war planning was inept to the point of moral culpability, and Blair is culpable for having allowed the US to plan it all.
Labour’s NEC will shortlist for Ealing Southall (Open Shortlist) next Tuesday.
As for Sedgefield (I suppose they’ll do the shortlist on the same day), deadline for applications for Labour hopefuls is by noon on Monday. Blair is expected to campaign for the byelection.
Phil Wilson (who worked for Blair) is interested. He’s a parish councillor and is backed by TGW.
Other names in the run are Simon Henig (agent of Kevan Jones MP) and Pat McCourt (leader of Ferryhill Town Council, backed by Unite)
With that glowing approval of all that Blair has done in Iraq, Rik (31), it sounds as though you could be the next Tory defector to switch over to Labour…..
28 Bob Sykes I did not see QT. Was Ming asked about Shirley and how did he perform
Two excellent Labour results there, and a bit desperate of Bob to imply otherwise by adding the Tory and BNP votes together - don’t the Tories always claim the BNP take votes from Labour? Moreover, in Sandwell the BNP vote went down in numerical terms (not in % terms) at the same time as a big Con->Lab swing.
Let’s be serious here - of course there’s a Brown bounce under way this week, and of course we can’t be sure how long it will last and how much will last.
As for an early election, I have no inside information, but common sense suggests we shouldn’t rule it out. If it were up to me, the conditions would be (a) a hefty poll lead into late September (b) minimal national funding in place (if we’re well ahead we don’t need to spend a fortune) and (c) a date after the Labour conference, which would be the launchpad (it’s late September). It might disrupt the Tory conference, but these things are sent to try them. I think it’s not especially likely even then, but a possibility. The next plausible option would be May 2008, if we’ve had a good run up to then. Otherwise a long parliament looks probable - I can’t see much case for 2009 since either we do well (in which case go early) or not (in which case go late).
Hooray RickW its about time somebody attacked the anti Iraq war political correctness.
Persionally I think it verges on racism. If Saddam had been in Europe the feeling would have been that we have to sort this out. But as it is a few arabs, nobody cared
30. Why would Brown go for an election this autumn when his ‘bounce’ is puny? If he had a ten point lead, then sure he would. But -1%? No way.
Mike, it is going to be hard to tell which way the marke is going to go on this one. There certainly seems to e no value in the buy position.
That said if you sell, and things start going horibly wrong for Labour you could be in trouble.
30. Slightly weird post, Coldstone, you OK?
I never said Iraq was an upcoming G/E issue. For most people - like Test - it is “boring”. Personally, I think that’s like saying the Holocaust is “dull”, but there ya go.
31. All this is reasonably true, Rik W. But, sadly, totally outweighed by the utter moral, strategic, and human catastrophe that has since enveloped that country and the region.
To prove this, play a mindgame. Ask yourself this. Knowing what has happened, if you could turn back time, would you do it all again, exactly the same way? i.e. If you think Iraq has been such a succcess, whuch you do, presumably you would answer Yes. You would say, Sure, let’s invade again. The same way. There’ll be problems but it’s worth it for all that success.
But of course you wouldn’t. No one in their right minds, given the chance, would invade Iraq again, the same way.
In fact, I venture to suggest we wouldn’t do it at all, would we?
We wouldn’t do it with fewer troops, we wouldn’t do it with more troops, we wouldn’t do it with Rumsfeld, or without him, we just wouldn’t do it. Because marching into a volatile Arab country, bombing them all to smithereens, and occupying them for years turns out, on reflection, to be quite a disastrous thing to do. Civil war was practically inevitable, as Chirac told Blair at the time. Blair ignored him.
I supported the war. I was an idiot. But I’m not paid to get these things right, politicians are. They got it very very wrong.
37.”Two excellent Labour results there”
Labour should have also held their Milton Keynes ward
35 - another typically silly posting from Tressage! I have always supported the Iraq invasion and make no apology for that. That doesnt make me a Labour supporter!
37 - thanks for the analysis Nick - so you think 2008 is a real runner then? I must confess I’m surprised 2009 is generally odds-on (1/2 at Hills).
Could this be the Other Big Defection?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6252430.stm
“More joy in heaven over one sinner that repenteth…” etc
38. What a truly preposterous post. Opposing the Iraq war “borders on racism”??
By this argument, killing hundreds of thousands of Iraqis in an illegal war is “anti-racist”. Something positively encouraged by Trevor Philips and the Commission for Racial Equality.
I’m glad the British Library is archiving this blog. That post deserves immortality.
41 SeanT I accept your point totally that if we could re-wind the clock, we would not have done what we have BUT that is true of a huge amount of life so hardly startling.
My arguement has been to contest the moral case against the war. Being a simplistic person I saw Saddam as very bad man whom it was morally correct to try to be rid of.If we had the capacity, then we should do it. There is not one rule for whites in Europe and another for the rest
The miscalculation was that it was do’able, and that the yanks would make such a horlicks of whatever opportunity they had.
But I refute all false moral outrage as being mainly that sad syndrome that many people, mainly on my side of the political fence, enjoy being morally outraged. So I see much of this moral outrage rather self centred
If Big Gordy got the boys home - then he might go to the polls
Nick, there is a change of leader bounce and it has restored the Tory lead.
your problem is that the bounce is so small it still leaves you trailing in the polls.
41
Only slightly weird, I’m on the mend!
From vote2007: Milton Keynes result:
Labour 1108 Con 914 EFP 221 Lib Dem 129 UKIP 109 IND 49
More or less the same margin of 2004 when the ward was contested for the last time.
34. This morning’s Northern Echo says that they will be shortlisting on the Sunday afternoon straight after the deadline for applications. The hustings will take place on Tuesday which gives latecomers next to no chance. They also mentioned former MP and Minister Melanie Johnson was interested. They will need some female candidates, so I wouldn’t be suprised if she was in the mix, though her chances of winning will be quite low. Simon Henig is able, but lacks a common touch. I think it will be between Phil Wilson and Pat McCourt (if he gets shortlisted).
48 by restored I mean reduced
47. OK, fair enough. Pax. And yes I agree that there are some people who enjoy the moral outrage so much they positively want the West to fail in Iraq. Most of them, but not all, are on the left.
And, like you, I also saw Saddam as a bad man who needed to be kicked out. The WMD argument always seemed a bit flimsy to me, but I was wlling to take it on trust - I believed Blair - and anyway I thought the moral case for ousting a vile dictator was in itself clinching.
But looking back my naivety is amazing. Did I really think we could send half a mllion troops into a massively volatile country, brutalised by decades of dictatorship, armed to the teeth, divided by creed and clan, surrounded by dangerous foes, then simultaneously bomb half their cities, and kill off their leaders, then quickly install a nice democracy and be home in time for tea? What was I on?
Idiotic. Just because something is morally right does not make it always feasible or even correct. It would have been morally right to get rid of Stalin, but that would have involved nuking Russia at the time and killing millions. So we didn’t do it.
Sadly, we had a fatuous and vain idealist in charge of the country when all this was being planned. A more intelligent, moral and pragmatic PM might have told Bush to think again.
45 Oh dear, he won’t want Clare Short back, that would frighten the Middle England horses
51. Henry, I got those info from here
http://icnewcastle.icnetwork.co.uk/journallive/thejournal/tm_headline=hopefuls-line-up-for-blair-s-patch&method=full&objectid=19377989&siteid=50081-name_page.html
They seem to give different info about the deadline for applications: is it Monday or Sunday?
According to BBC Cruddas has turned down a government job
54. GB’s defections so far - Quentin Davies and Claire Short…is this a ‘government of all the fat, ugly people’?
This London bomb thing gets scarier by the minute:
“An eyewitness told Sky News that he saw a car being driven “erratically” before crashing into some bins. Bouncers from the nearby ‘Tiger Tiger’ nightclub saw the driver of the vehicle running away.
Other eyewitnesses reported gas cylinders - believed to contain propane gas - and nails inside the car.”
If this is true it sounds like an incredibly narrow escape for London. Sheesh.
55. The Labour party website doesn’t clear it up either.
57. Goodness I forgot to mention Digby Jones in that list as well…
56. I think that’s a shame - I would have liked to have seen him in Government. I wonder what the offer was? I would have thought it would have been better for Brown to have him onside.
#24 - Iain Duncan Smith egging Blair on hardly helped. I’m not being partisan about it seant, but I do wonder how much better things would have been if the Europhile Ken Clarke, who opposed the war, had been leading the Tories.
We were let down by the Opposition failing to oppose, as well as by Bliar himself.
57 Send us a pic of yourself, Scally, so we can consider from what Olympian heights you speak.
4 - “Note how low down the running order the new cabinet is in all the papers. The public are not interested.”
Errr, surely that just means the papers aren’t interested?
Jeff Randall has a good descrition of the last ten years of government which shows why this is not a ‘new start’:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2007/06/29/do2902.xml
55 One of the possibles is a doctor in Politics from Sunderland University - AArgh - I bet Gordy would rather have Claire
61. 12-18 months from now the left are going to be horribly disappointed with GB; he will offer them nothing of any substance. The question is whether he can engineer an election and coalition with the Lib Dems in the meantime.
63. Ooh did I touch a raw nerve there, Peter?
62 The conservatives must be less culpable though, Timothy. They would not have had the same detailed inside knowledge, nor would they have known what slant the Government was putting on the information it had.
It’s likely they would have supported the invasion had they been in power, but we will never know, and we they shouldn’t be blamed for something which was not their direct responsibility.
58. PS. And a bizarrely inept reaction to the bomb incident from Jack Straw
“Jack Straw, who was named justice secretary by Britain’s new prime minister, Gordon Brown, said ministers had been informed of the incident and called it “very saddening,” but added “these things happen.”"
“Very saddening”, but “these things happen”?? That’s what you say when your child’s puppy gets run over, or some old lady loses her marbles.
“These things happen”? Propane gas nail bombs in central London??
Now the media master has left number 10, I wonder if Brown’s government will be quite so dextrous. Blair may have been a warmngering etc etc but he knew how to say the right words.
62. Agree, totally. The Tories are also culpable for the Iraq disaster, though obviously not anywhere near as much as Labour. Trouble was IDS is one of nature’s subalterns - as someone called him at the time - his automatic reaction during Iraq was obedience and loyalty: rally to the PM’s side, support America, wish god speed to our boys, etc etc. All natural Tory reflexes. But wrong in this instance. Ken Clarke was right and so were the Lib Dems, to their eternal credit.
68 Being excruciately ugly and and a tad overweight I suppose I feel it more than most!
Any news about the by-elections in Wigan and Pendle?
Following on from Cruddas not taking a job, I wonder if Brown will have a little bit of a problem getting the support of the centre-left/left of the party? Lots of talk of Tories, business people and promoting Blairites plays well with some, but I would have thought he’d want the Compass MPs on board to shore up the left and the unions?
This bomb in London could be anyone. Gas cylinder style jobbos are possible for any number of groups (or an individual loop) as they are fairly rudimentary. The key is if the detonator & detonating charge are in place. If so it shouldnt be hard to work out who is responsible.
As for the driver, sounds liek an attack of the collywobbles.
65
That of course, being the same Jeff Randall who said of David Cameron, ‘I wouldn’t trust that man with my daughter’s pocket money’ Obviously not that convinced, by any of the present crop of politicians.
75. Yeah, seems like the driver bottled it. But it does sound possibly Islamist. Wasn’t one of the plans of that recently jailed al-Qaeda guy exactly this - to drive a car full of propane gas into central London and blow it up?
Silver Mercedes too. Very Arab. The lunatic right would have used a patriotic British car. The IRA favoured cheapo Transits.
I know, I know. One shouldn’t joke. Coulda been nasty.
70
‘“Jack Straw, who was named justice secretary by Britain’s new prime minister, Gordon Brown, said ministers had been informed of the incident and called it “very saddening,” but added “these things happen.””‘
What do you expect? Straw was the moron that went on TV after 7/7 saying that the war in Iraq was nothing to do with the terrorist attack in London!
Punter - if you are out there - I have posted a response to your query with regards the Interregnum as you requested
It is on the thread about Jack Straw being snubbed, from yesterday. It is long, so I didn’t want it blocking the thread today. It is also about a O/T as you can get.
73 Yes, Henry. The DL contest didn’t go that great for him. OK, Harman isn’t a problem but I’m sure he would have preferred Johnson. Cruddas’ supporters might be feeling a bit miffed that HH stole it under slightly false pretexts. A decent post for JC might have helped smooth matters over.
There a danger Cruddas might be cast in the role of rebek outsider and he would attract a fair bit of support. Better inside the tent…?
70 - “these things do happen” !!
Indeed. I am reminded of the lines from the Phantom of the Opera:
—-
ANDRE (to CARLOTTA)
These things do happen.
CARLOTTA
Si! These things do happen! Well, until you stop these
things happening, this thing does not happen!
—-
What a monumentally stupid thing to have said.
Andrea at 50. Whaddon was last contested in 2006, where the results were:
UKIP: 202
Lab: 1125
Con: 984
Ind: 93
LD 220
So the Labour majority has gone up from 141 to 196, LD vote down significantly (from an already low base).
79 Or even a rebel..
Btw, no tennis tip today Henry?
How long do you think it will be, before the first Tory poster comes on to this site, or Conhome/Guido Fawkes etc., accusing Brown of setting up this whole bomb thing, to make himself look good? The clock is ticking.
Nick Palmer The two local elctions you refer to do not fit your spin.
The two main features are the collapse of the LibDem share of the vote and the strength of the BNP which got 26% of the vote in Nuneaton and in Sandwell increased their share to 21%.
There seems to have been a lot of churn with Labour’s share of the vote declining in Nuneaton and increasing in Sandwell where it would seem you squeezed the LibDems in a way the latest opinion polls suggest you might be doing nationally.
In Nuneaton the LibDem share went down by a massive three quarters.
The Tory share declined in both elections but there is nothing to suggest that they, and in Sandwell the lost Labour votes, went anywhere but to the BNP or the English Democrats. A move I am not pleased about to put it mildly, as I am sure you are not either.
83. You are the one suggesting it
83. With you posting, any such wingnut would at least feel at home.
Wigan Tyldesley LibDem hold LibDem 784 Lab 619 Ind 377 Con 170 - May result LibDem 1838 Lab 447 Con 370 Green 260
Pendle Craven LibDem hold LibDem 632 Con 260 Ind 241 BNP 237 Lab 76 - May result LibDem 736 Ind 428 Con 405
A good night for Labour ( but not spectacular ) and BNP , poor for LibDems and Conservatives although some mitigating circumstances in Wigan for LibDems and Sandwell for Conservatives .
80.
“These things happen.”
??
What’s Jack Straw gonna say when there’s another terrorist attack?
“You have to laugh or you’d cry”?
“These things happen” may go down as one of the most inadequate and foolish remarks ever made by a British minister, and we’re only in day two of the Brown government. Good start, guys.
Sean T Pax etc
And surely the point is, as I may have mentioned before (!) that the time for military action with Saddam - even by depriving him ofmilitary supplies, was when he launched his totally illegal war on Iran. If “the international community” (perhaps such a concept was less evident the - cold war and all that) had taken a tough line then, we could have avoided Kuwait, sanctions etc, and could have come around to a jaw jaw way of settling Iraq’s intercommunal issues. But, oh no, the Americans had to get in their revenge against Iran for overthrowing their puppet the Shah.
By the time we got to 2001 /2 we should have been able to organise, help with the coordination of some intercommunal effort to pull the rug from under Saddam his relatives and his henchmen by agreement. So instead of the current ridiculous situation where Iran, a major player, is perceived as some sort of “enemy”, we do start a genuine approach to pluralism in the region, not by perceived imposition from outside, or involving oil and other resources being “secured” (ie purloined) from outside.
83. Coldstone that’s your second rather weird remark of the day. You are normally an articulate, interesting if slightly crotchetty member of the gang, but you seem to be overheating this morning. I suggest you take a couple of aspirin and watch the tennis?
Sounds like Strawman was sad about the bomb incident itself, but about it spoiling his grand announcement to the cabinet of any constitutional reforms he might be planning.
Sounds like Strawman was not sad about the bomb incident itself, but about it spoiling his grand announcement to the cabinet of any constitutional reforms he might be planning.
85
Well of course he did, just like Blair, he had that ‘Peoples’ Princess’ speech in his pocket the day he was elected, then as soon as he was in, got the SAS to rub her out, ask Fayed, he’ll confirm it.
The BNP doing fine in Pendle, christ they haven’t been seen in that area for ages. Wake up people, big tent government is a recipe for disaster.
90 seanT. Calling Coldstone “crotchetty” reminds us of another poster of this realm … a certain pot amd kettle !!
89 - A bit naive as a post. The “Great Game” of Victorian memory is alive and well. The chinese or Russians would never have gone along with unified action.They could get in to Iraq’s good books by oposing it. This is what actually happened in the UN.
“Intercommunal effort” nice sentiment, but only happens in extremis
93. You are not particularly funny, suggest you take a few deep breaths count to 10 and then may be try again….a good starting point is knock knock
Constitutionally, who is in charge of reassuring the nation after failed bomb attacks: Jack Straw at Justice or Jacqui Smith at what remains of the Home Office?
If you mean me, old timer, I’m never crotchetty. I’m splenetic. BIG difference.
Incidentally if any of you guys are in London, tread carefully. From the Guardian just now:
“A car bomb was today defused in central London after a member of the public alerted Scotland Yard to a suspicious vehicle.
Police are now frantically searching landmark sites across the capital for further explosive devices. They were not sure whether the bomb was a lone device or one of several deployed across London.”
88: I thought Jack Straw’reaction was great.
For people who haven’t heard it yet, it’s here:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/player/nol/newsid_6250000/newsid_6252400/6252416.stm?bw=nb&mp=wm
These people are trying to terrorize us - the best response is not to be terrorized.
Keep calm and carry on.
(Tee-shirts here: http://www.keepcalmandcarryon.com/pages/history)
The absence of fearmongering on this even makes me slightly optimistic that Brown’s government is going to be less authoritarian than Blair’s.
Could they be planning to quietly bury ID cards?
The hair splitting grief you are giving Jack Straw - who’d be a politician. No wonder they use spin
83 - never one to go for the trivial - i would imagine guido would use it as an opportunity to question the charitable status of the john smith institute
I must lay off the double espresso’s
Morning all :).
Re: 87 - Not sure I quite agree there, Mark. I think the LDs have put up one good and one satisfactory performance with the holds. I think Nuneaton and Sandwell were always going to be very difficult and the vote there has been squeezed.
Labour have done fairly well as have the BNP. I think the Tories may be worried about the Nuneaton and Sandwell results. I accept the latter has mitigating factors but Nuneaton looks poor for both Tories and LDs with Labour and the BNP advancing and the Tories coming third in a seat they won in 2004.
Re:70 and others: I’m left with a lot of questions over this. Busy as Haymarket is, it’s busier in the early hours of Saturday morning than early Friday morning so was this a “rehearsal” ? The whole incident to me is odd but after thirty years of living with terrorism in various forms, I am once again grateful that an atrocity has been thwarted.
83. Gordon is capable of bombing all by himself..
O/T - Have been looking at the card for tomorrow’s Northumberland Plate at Newcastle. I see that Monolith is available at 33/1 with Paddy Power and Bet 365. Ground conditions in the vicinity are attrocious. The horse is an out an out stayer and soft ground specialist.
A small each way stake is recommended.
81,”Andrea at 50. Whaddon was last contested in 2006, where the results were”
Thanks.I missed the 2006 contest
103. Try posting on the many conspiracy theory oriented sites instead, where you will be very welcome.
re 38 John. So when can we expect the troops to rumble into Sudan, the Congo, Zimbabwe, Palestine, Chechnya, etc.?
99. It looks like a lone device at this stage. If there were others they would have probably went off by now.
104. Agreed. The reports are weird and confusing. Police are saying it’s a “potentially massive device”, Westminster sources say it was “relatively small”.
Eyewitness reports say the car was driving erratically, crashed, then a man ran off. But others say they saw a man unloading gas canisters from a car. Which doesn’t sound like a panicky suicide bomber at all. Still other reports say some people saw “nails in the car”. How?
101. OK. Maybe slightly harsh on Jack Straw. It’s just when I saw his words juxtaposed with the description of a massive propane gas nail bomb - “these things happen” felt a touch feeble. I’m sure he’d agree it wasn’t the best line in history - but as you say it can’t be easy to get it right all the time.
Blair did though, nearly always. That was his great gift. He had the ability to make you think he’d found just the right words - even when, looking back, the words were meaningless.
109. There is a word for the constant war that John apparently wants us to wage - ‘crusade’.
111: “Blair did though, nearly always. That was his great gift. He had the ability to make you think he’d found just the right words - even when, looking back, the words were meaningless.”
…and he’d used them to justify taking away your civil liberties and starting an illegal and stupid war.
Isn’t this way better?
111. I think it was because he paused so much every 4 words or so that you just filled in the blanks with your own thoughts - just a theory
109 Chris A I have no moral problem with ousting Mugabe by military action. people are going through hell, and we whiteys are ring our hands and sounding pious.
If I thought it would work, I’d do it, but it will not. That is my point - it is an issue of practicality, not a moral issue.
The issue in Africa is getting African states to take responsibility for what they rightly and proudly say is “their” continent.
100 - I agree that the absence of fear-mongering is a good thing, it just strikes me as a bit too laid back. It’s surely the job of government to try and determine what things happen, to the extent that is possible. I had the impression of Straw repeating the phrase when asked about every future bad event…
Pot and Kettle has never commented on a post by Coldstone
re 22 ‘the combined BNP/Tory vote’… my God, I never thought I’d see that here.
117. Got your hands full enough with Roger, eh?
Today’s Wimbledon 3rd round pic Ferrero to beat Blake at 10/3 with http://www.coral.co.uk and http://www.sportingodds.co.uk. Ferrero is actually a pretty good record at Wimbledon and has won 13 and lost
6 matches at SW19. Blake on the other hand has only won 4 and lost 4 and has incredibly never got beyond the third round.
Ferrero is ranked 18 in the world (to Blake’s 9) and has beaten him in both their meetings. He should definately be no bigger than 11/8 for this match. I’m also having a saver on him winning with http://www.sportingodds.co.uk’s +5.5 game handicap (5/6).
something has occured to me! The happy warrior who should now be sampling his 12 virgins and a fountain of wine,( Is that what you get, I might consider it myself, Chianti for me please, I’m partial to redheads by the way) can hardly return to his compatriots, take some explaining as to why he bottled out. Bit like a Kamikaze pilot taking the Zero home and explaining it away to his Squadron Commander, ‘Couldn’t find ‘em boss, I searched high and low not an aircraft carrier in the whole Pacific, think the Yanks have gone back home!’
In view of the circumstances of the by-election in Sandwell, the Conservatives did pretty well to hold the seat at all.
Nuneaton was undoubtedly a poor result for us, and clearly, quite a number of Conservatives switched to the BNP. The BNP hit Labour disproportionately in some areas, us in others, and the Lib Dems in a few places.
122. What were the peculiar circumstances in Sandwell, out of interest?
123, the outgoing Conservative councillor was found guilty of pimping his mentally ill wife on the internet.
124 B****y H**l
In fact, he started as a Lib Dem, switched to the Conservatives, sat as an independent following conviction, and was actually turned down by the BNP when he sought to join their group on the council.
It says quite a lot about someone if the BNP turn them down as unsuitable.
123. Aha yes. Perhaps a surprising hold in that case, I agree.
122. The only way to neuter the BNP is to do what Sarko did to Le Pen. Talk openly, robustly and honestly about race, crime, immigration and the rest. Sarko did this and Le Pen’s vote collapsed.
The lefties and Guardianistas will squeal and call you a racist, but they can be ignored as the idiots they are.
Most BNP voters are not, I’d say, racist. They might be ethnocentric, but that’s very different. Most people are ethnocentric - they prefer their own. Human nature.
A BNP vote is a cry of pain and protest, on the whole. Answer that cry and the Far Right thugs will wither on the vine. Ignore it and they will prosper, as they are doing now.
Just blithering on about british values is not enough. You need to bring in legislation to limit immigration from non-EU countries, for a start.
Re 126, Sean, yes it does say a lot about someone if the BNP turn them down!
126 Please tell me the Conservatives dumped him as soon as they found out, or was he in our party before he started this?
I hope he’s in prison
124
Is that bad?
106. Looks good to me. Done.
re 120 thanks, good analysis. Any chance of a translation of you assessment of the true odds into decimal? Ferrero is 4.4 on B/f, which looks great value. But isn’t Blake’s form very good?
128 “The only way to neuter the BNP is to do what Sarko did to Le Pen. Talk openly, robustly and honestly about race, crime, immigration and the rest. Sarko did this and Le Pen’s vote collapsed.”
If you want an example closer to home, I give you Mrs Thatcher in 1977 or 1978, with the line about being “swamped” by immigrants when interviewed on TV. Some said she was playing the race card, others said she was de-fusing the National Front.
Who knows?
All these Council by-elections have made me think:
In the William Hill market: “What will happen during Gordon Brown’s term as Prime Minister”, one of the options is “Labour lose a by-election”.
Surely a punter could argue that this refers to Council by-elections as well as parliamentary by-elections and pick up some decent winnings.
What do PB.C’ers think?
131 Well, I won’t comment on the ethics, but it is regarded as a serious criminal offence. IIRC, he got a suspended prison sentence.
No chance!
110. Can’t see much damage on that car. Its also not a bad car to use, assuming its been nicked, in that its quite big and heavy and this outwardly shows less evidence of having a large load in the back.
134. Well it certainly worked. The NF vote in 1979 was pitiful - a huge shock to them given their impressive local elections performances in the mid-1970s. Thatcher delivered what the British people wanted and still want - an end to mass immigration. Far right activity remained subdued until..the election of Blair who re-opened the floodgates and breathed new life into the corpse of the BNP.
138
Well he’s not an Arab, that’s for sure. To most Arab’s the Mercedes is an object of worship, I can’t imagine an Arab ever blowing one up. On the other hand he could be an Arab, it was the thought of blowing one up, that made him ‘leg it’
135 You’ve got to be reasonable, Alex, especially in political betting which becomes impossible if subjected to excessive pedantry.
It’s perfectly clear what Hills have in mind, and any tribunal, if it got that far, would be sure to find in their favour.
The ‘palpable error’ rule would also bail them out if nothing else did. You simply wouldn’t get those odds if they included council elections and so if offered, the palpable error would be manifest.
Re the BNP and Tories, I am loathe to put the two together, but my own local ward is a good indication of the ease with which disaffected rightward leaning Tory voters may switch across - a wealthy, solidly Tory mostly rural community which has been a two-horse race between Tory and Labour for decades (ie, nobody else bothers standing), but with the Tories always winning apart from a couple of freak years in the mid-90s.
Five or six years ago, the BNP stood for the first time in the seat and won. It was a result of such significance that the BBC’s “round up from the north” on the Ten o’clock News was broadcast from my local village square. That was the start of the BNP in Burnley, and it was an affluent, Tory seat that elected them first, not some deprived inner-city ward.
Re the Midlands result I commented on, the figures seem to speak for themselves - Tory vote down 500, BNP (from nowhere) up 500. The Lib Dems also crumbled, but you’d hardly think they went to the BNP. Sure, some Labour voters may have switched to the BNP, and some Tories to Labour. But I tend to think Tory voters switch more readily to the BNP than Labour. I even think the BNP and UKIP have the potential to lose the Tories the next election if the right-leaning voters don’t return to the fold.
Alex Williams @ 135 — well, a punter could argue it but since William Hill itself is judge and jury, the prospects of success are not encouraging.
As my solicitor says: you certainly have a case; whether it’s a good case …?
This failed terror attack was entirely predictable. Indeed i thought it was more likely on the day of the handover in those few minutes when there is no PM.
I was suspicious that the BBC played a coded message about 2 weeks ago on a Pakistan terror camp showing footage released by Bin Laden’s terror group. A sort of signal to trained terror cells? Certainly it is a good way for a terror organisation to communicate because if they used the web for instance you could track people down and intercept terror cells that way. Where as the TV is avaiable to everyone and it’s not yet illegal to watch TV!
139 The NF were mainly concentrated in London (particularly the Inner East End), Leicster, and a couple of other towns, like Huddersfield and Blackburn. With the exception of the Inner East End, the BNP poll far better, across a much wider range of constituencies than the NF ever did.
Probably the best NF result was the GLC election of 1997, where they won 5.1% of the vote across London, just behind the Liberals. But the BNP will probably top that next year.
142 As I said, it varies. In 2005, the BNP certainly hit the Conservatives in Keighley, but they hit Labour in Dewsbury. Last year, in Barking and Dagenham, one of their best results came in Eastbury, which elected three Lib Dems in 2002.
145. Yes the BNP are indeed a stronger force than the NF was back then - which is an even greater indictment of Blair’s government especially given that society’s attitudes toward race has on the whole become more liberal since. A greater number of (on average) more reasonable people are knowingly voting for fascists than in the mid-1970s - the frustration, fear and despair that leads them to do so is Blair’s doing entirely.
139. Yes, it seems pretty obvious to me. You bear down on immigration, the far right withers away. You let in millions of people, the far right flourishes. Not exactly quantum physics. Question is finding the balance - seeing as we do need immigrants. I’d say the balance has gone totally AWOL under New Labour.
Now that we’ve let in so many people just rabbiting on about British values is not gonna be enough to crush the BNP. I think restoring the Tories’ “primary purpose legislation”, so foolishly repealed by Labour in 97, would be a start. It might not change the figures that much but it would show a willingness for robust action rather than just words. People need to be reassured.
142. One reason the BNP do surprisingly well in apparently white affluent non-ethnic areas is “white flight”. i.e. white people flee the perceived crime, poverty and bad schools of an ethnically mixed area, and move somewhere whiter and richer in the burbs or the shires. Wanting to keep it that way (given their experiences) they vote BNP. So the BNP vote goes up in these areas.
My home county Cornwall has a lot of white flighters. Impeccably liberal in many ways, these blow-ins can sound like Nick Griffin when it comes to immigration, once they’ve had a few drinks.
148. Cornwall seems to still have some bizarre local racially themed events. Dare I ask SeanT what your analysis of Darkie Day is?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/cornwall/4337475.stm
Back to politics -
In terms of early elections i think this is extremly unlikely but it would be a welcome thing. The last couple of days have shown me what a unique political leader Blair was as PM. He had the charisma of a movie star and even tough i disagreed with some of the way he handled things he was still acceptable. It is times of trouble that i thought he was at his best because he could show real leadership.
Whereas the current PM i feel has had an energising effect on the Labour party but also non - Labour supporters. Certainly the people who are Labour supporters seem to be undecided - they did admit to being Labour supporters yesterday though! (Went boozing!!!), though Tories and LD’s seem to be much more passionate in their opinion (Negative! :lol:). Brown is a divisional figure whereas Blair whilst devicive could offer a bridge to those that are not Labour supporters. This is why his cabinet of ‘all the talents’ looks so naff and PR driven. It just is not credible really and the way Brown has done it behind closed doors makes it look like he has something to hide. At least the way they used to do it was transparent - this is not about spin as it has been spun anyway! Just badly!!!
I think the media will get bored very quickly with Brown!!!
I think Brown is very unlikely indeed to call an early election as changes in party support are not usually solid if sudden i.e. Fuel chrisis when he was chancellour. The other interesting thing will be any election is highly unlikely this side of conference season. This will just be the time the HIP’s are starting to bite certainly the 4 bedroom houses come on stream in August, i read in one paper that 3 bedroom houses will be a few months later. Bad timing!!!
148 Indeed, the BNP are on the record as targeting predominantly ethnicly white constuencies next to or close to one with a mix.
This is working on the principle of fear, ignorance and predjudice. My area of Horsham is targeted because it was close to Crawley. Most people who have anything to do with Crawley know (despite being a pretty ugly place) it is a strong community.
But on the doorstep in Horsham you do get alot of we don’t want “them” here. And I’m afraid it does come from quite wealthy white voters in the main baracaded in their little grief hole, hating the world around them. They want their country back. Not prepared to share.
140. So basically we can rule out people from countries where Mercs are used as taxis and limos because of their demi-god status…its a hypothesis I’ll give you that.
CCTV of which there is plenty may give their race away but then again, when it comes to Islamic terrorism, the people that most need watching are often the converts rather than born Moslems so if they were white european I wouldnt be surprised either.
148
My home county Cornwall has a lot of white flighters. Impeccably liberal in many ways, these blow-ins can sound like Nick Griffin when it comes to immigration, once they’ve had a few drinks.
Then ask the Cornish about the white flighters, see what response you get.
Is it true seant, that if you ask a cornishman to dinner, and he says, ‘can I bring my mother and my girlfriend’ and you say yes, he turns up with one woman?
151. is it possible as well as fear, ignorance and prejudice the BNP are targeting a genuine grievance at any point?
One word answer is fine.
153. Hm.
The Cornish themselves can indeed be incredibly racist - about the English. And everyone else. Tut tut.
Darkie Day is apparently good fun, however. No doubt the EU will ban it in time, along with the sporran.
153 No, Coldstone but if you ask him to a party where wives and girlfriends are also invited, he will bring both.
151. I think your view of “sharing” is not one “shared” by the majority of people
‘They want their country back. Not prepared to share’
The fact that they are being told they must ’share’ even though they don’t want to and have never been consulted about it might of course be be a factor in the resentment these people feel. It’s rather like having a group of complete strangers billeted in your house without your sayso, just on a larger scale. Such an arrangement might work, but it is far more likely not to.
154 I think that a considerable number of people find rapid change in terms of ethnic diversity an exciting and enriching experience, but rather more find it a frightening and unsettling one.
No.
We have get on live and work with other people.
To prejudge which other people are OK and which not is unacceptable.
On immigration in particular. If “they” come from Scotland or the North of England to your town or village are they more or less unacceptable than other Europeans. You are free to go and live in Spain. It all seems fair and reasonable to me.
160. Well I think most people would rather have their friends or relatives to stay than complete strangers, don’t you? That seems perfectly reasonable to me.
151. Yes, we could all go round to Jonathan’s house and “share” his sitting room and his whisky. I’m sure he wouldn’t mind. If he does, his feelings are based on fear, prejudice and ignorance, and he’s just a bigot stuck in the past who wants his house back.
160 That seems remarkably utopian. Most people prefer to live with people similar to themselves. In almost any society, people from the same ethnic group will tend to cluster together.
160. I’ll be the first to say it, and I don’t care if you call me a Nazi. I prefer immigrants from countries and cultures closer to my own. Cultures and countries where misogyny is not ingrained in the way of life. I prefer immigrants who will not look down on my way of life as decadent and wicked even as they benefit from the freedoms and opportunities my country gives them.
Most of all, I prefer immigrants who are less likely to try and blow me up with propane gas nail attacks.
and when there is less and less things to “share” we may have a problem….whats going to be the key words coming out of Labour over the next few years…..oh yes the need for more housing. some will argue that this shortage is because of right to buy, i don’t buy that argument, others will look more closely at immigration and realise that the need for such vast house building plans is driven by immigration projections
Hills have the following market up:
Labour share of the vote in the sedgefield by-election 0-58.9% at 2.2
Sounds like value to me - Labour’s share of the vote in all by elections since 2001 has fallen drastically compared to the previous general election.
165. Most beautiful places need protection if they are to remain that way. Without it they end up covered in cheap and nasty development, swamped with tourists, and the environment is degraded. That is the future for Britain thanks to Blair - an overcrowded, ugly tourist trap.
166 - I agree and have backed it, though you need to factor in that the PM’s own seat gets contested a little like a by-election at a G.E. (lots of independents etc.) The 6/5 has already been chopped in from 6/4, my guess is it has a fair way further to go.
154 No.
158 Their utter arrogance is to assume that it was their country alone in the first place. Like everyone else, there just here through a happy accident of birth, standing on the shoulders of giants.
162 SeanT you’re welcome round my place anytime. Talisker?
O/T Sarkozy reveals that he’s a friend of
DorothyBarbra.http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/6252464.stm
It always amazes me the bile the BNP get heaped on them. Islamic and ‘anti- Nazis’ parties cause more of a problem really as they tend to detach this most sensitive area of the population into believing that they are somehow being mistreated by the rest.
The added problem of these groups on both sides and particularly the ‘Anti-Nazis’ groups go and cause trouble at a gathering or march. They actually end up given their opponents more publicity than it is worth.
For the record i am a “Liberal” centrist
169 Do you sing the Internationale (with a slight tear in your eye) every morning as you strive to realise the worldwide community of the workers?
Your faux naiif worldview is charming but utterly arrogant.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6252430.stm
I thought this might be the case!
This is the thing about Labour people they blindly go back in the end!!!
169. By that measure then those people the BNP exploit probably have no grievances at all.
Sensible tactics suggest the BNP will pick on legitimate issues that the local people have the expand the politics of it, widen their base.
But since you say no, they clearly don’t do that.
But I’m telling you I know better because I’m very aware of their methodology inside out, in fact to an extent which I can promise you that you don’t. To add to that the same tactics were used by Sinn Fein for years in both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.
I have very bad news for you Jonathan, whether you think the people have a legitimate grievance or not is irrelevant, they believe they do and they gravitate to those who agree with them. Those who sit on their high horse and accuse them of ignornace or prejudice or whatever only push them further. You have to prove to them why they are wrong and so far I have seen absolutely nothing from you as to how to go about that.
If you can proffer some solutions to the ignorant mass I’d be interested.
Wildly O/T: I’m playing Fantasy Government with a mate, whereby you select the five Cabinets / senior govt members most likely to earn you points according to the following scale:
Gaffe 2 pts
Standard ministry cock up 2 pts
Medium ministry cock up 5 pts
Criticised by a member of own party 5 pts
Row with media 10 pts
Budgetary fiasco 10 pts
Major ministry cock up 10 pts
Opposition calls to resign 10 pts
Policy U-turn 10 pts
Resignation of a subordinate minister 10 pts
Strike within area of responsibility 10 pts
Criticised by a member of own cabinet 15 pts
Affair 20 pts
Other personal scandal 20 pts
Affair with member of same sex 50 pts
Forced to resign 50 pts
Appreciate it’s hugely subjective but as that bloke on election night says “it’s only a bit of fun”. My five are Harman, Jowell, Smith, Kelly and Straw. Anyone got any other winning teams ? Other suggestions for points-earning criteria appreciated too.
Apols to any Labour supporters who think this is somewhat blasphomous, but frankly the rest of us have got to get some enjoyment out of this crowd, somehow.
169. Sorry (and thanks for the Talisker offer; I prefer Laphoraig if you have it!) but this is an absurd argument. Almost everything is an accident of birth. If I get rich cause I’m smart, my intelligence is due to genes - therefore my wealth is an accident of birth - that doesn’t give other people the right to come and take all my money, or even “share” it.
Or, to use the house metaphor again - let’s say you inherited your home. i.e. you own it by accident of birth. It’s still your home, and you have the right to decide who comes to stay. All else is anarchy and iniquity.
This cuts both ways, too. If millions of Brits suddenly decided to move to Kenya and the Kenyan people started saying ‘please stop, you are affecting our culture’ the left would be the first to defend the Kenyans right to be Kenyan, and decry the imperialism of all these nasty white people moving to Africa. Why shouldn’t Brits at home be allowed the same choice?
Finally, polls show that 60-70% of Brits want an end to mass immigration. That makes the vast majority of Brits “fearful, prejudiced and ignorant”, by your definition. Not exactly a popular slogan for a political activist.
Vote for me, cause I think you are all bigots. Hm..
164.
Have the Police released any description of the driver yet?
Also the security services will be a greatly concerned if it is once again British born citizens like 7\7.
In some ways more disturbing than 9/11, as aatacks from inside a state cause greater security and political problems.
169 If that’s “utter arrogance” then about 98% of the World’s population must be utterly arrogant. The natives of all countries tend to assume that their country belongs to them. It’s the basis of all national independence movements.
A bit of a snub for Brown:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6252534.stm
If a bloke so keen to reinvigorate Labour, what does this say about him if he will not work with Brown?
:lol::lol:
As an European I can only hope that the honeymoon will not be too long… Even though it might be a new government, it might proof better, to have a new governing party all together, since most of the changes Mr. Brown made were purely on the surface. There needs to be a big change, especially in foreign Policy, an argument, which Stanley Sloan also makes. The recent developments have shown, that a transatlantic gap has to be avoided.
169. I think the vast majority of people across the world would take the view that the country they and their forebears grew up in rightly belong to them - and that they should not be forced to share it with others against their will. In denying the validity of this deeply and widely held human feeling it is you who is being arrogant.
179. Weird. I wonder why? Not good news for Brown. Cruddas was by far the most personable of the deputy candidates (even if his housing and schooling arrangements are on the hypocritical side)…
180. The most amusing thing from the 27th June was Brown’s first call to George W Bush!!!
Whilst one recognises the importance of the U.S. in geopolitical and economic affairs. I would say as Neil Kinnock pointed out that Brown could distance himself from the U.S. without the U.S. believing it was a snub or anti-americanism. Should he have not called Merkel or Sarkozy first???!!!
:lol:
The Unions are furious. Brown has double-crossed them. He’s dropping them from policy and is going elsewhere for his money - big business.
There will soon be strikes from Postal workers with Railway workers in sympathy. Public Sector workers have been told by Brown to expect Pay rises below inflation for 3 years (and inflation figures are massaged as it is) The Unions are rebelling, and Cruddas no doubt sees his loyalty to the rebellion. Brown is running out of rope - already.
179 182 There are whole host of reasons why someone might want to be Labour Deputy Leader but not want to serve as a Minister.
Not everyone has ambitions to be a Minister at all costs.
179 Possibly, Martin, but you need to know a bit more about it before drawing conclusions. What was the post? Why was it turned down? What do the two men in question say about it?
184. Thats a bit melodramatic I don;t see it as desperate as that
From that BBC article: “It is not known what job Mr Cruddas was offered by Mr Brown.”
Gordon Brown to Jon Cruddas - “Jon you did really well in the DL elections, surprised us all, could you be a junior minister at Transport or DEFRA, you choose, that would really suit your talents”
185. Go on then, why would you want the powerful position of Deputy Leader and not want the powerful position of Minister? What’s the point in being in politics?
Genuine question.
166 & 168 - Alex and Aaron
Yes, value indeed and I’ve joined you, although I was a bit slow out of the traps and missed the 6/5.
It’s not nailed on. The previous Sedgefield election had some artificial factors which will not be repeated this time, so it’s hard to be sure how it will go but 59% for a fairly normal by-election is very high.
182. I am really disappointed by Brown so far and i did not have high expectations.
:lol: 
Everything he does is Naff and you can see write through it. From this cabinet of all the talents through to enticing a man to defect to Labour whilst the said MP was voting against Brown in a confidence motion. The whole thing looks naff. Please Tony Blair come back!!!!
Brown thinks you don’t need style and can relie on substance - would you buy a relient robin with a porsch engine ???!!!!
:lol: 
It reminds me of the worst of John Majors presentational difficulties. I don’t think the re-launch has gone to plan and my feeling was when looking at the picture of the cabinet…….Someone is missing Tony Blair…..What was left was a bunch of non-discipt unattractive and unappealing set of Brown - yes men and women!!!!
:lol: 
Could I request a comment and chart on the probablity of the winner of the next election based on the betting as there seems to have been a massive shorting (if that’s the correct term) of the Labour price which seems to have acclerated since Gordon Brown became leader (and just how do you calculate the probablity based on betting anyway?)
190 Sorry…I meant 6/4. Wasn’t that slow!
184. That’s an interesting take on it. What price Cruddas to succeed Brown if the Conservatives win the General Election
34 - Surprised TGWU are backing Wilson, I thought they had decided with Amicus to back the same candidates in all party elections. Think Wilson will have GMB as well. Not sure who Unison will swing behind.
195. The piece linked at 55 claimed he had TGWU backing. If they’re wrong, it’s their fault, I’m not responsible!
Btw, Tory MEP David Sumberg (North West) has announced he will stand down at next EuroElection
Home Secretary Smith in talks with David Davis and Nick Clegg on the terror situation….
191
Have a look on BBC news 24,there is a short interview with Gordo on the bomb alert,don’t know where Gordo was but it looks as if the reporter has found him coming out of his garden shed,very strange interview and venue.
176 some may question your taste in many things but clearly in the whisky department you are a connoisseur - there is no finer single malt;
198. I saw him on the news as well.
I think Tony Blair did stuff like this better.
At least he came out and spoke even if it was from a Garden Shed! He usually does one! It looked like the treary the bit i saw?
200. sorry meant treasury
Two very poor election results for the LibDems in the West Midlands, though not entirely surprising. The defector in Charlemont who caused the by-election was best known as a LibDem, I don’t think he became a Tory that long ago. The LibDems had high hopes for winning back the seat and this result suggests they are increasingly losing the battle for the protest vote in Sandwell to the BNP, which is depressing news. The party however is weak in the borough and the campaign was not that intensive by modern standards.
The LibDems are even weaker in Nuneaton, which is similar to Sandwell in that it is rather ‘old Labour.’ Some efforts were made in this campaign and the result is very poor.
The propensity of people in these areas to start voting BNP in large numbers is a warning and a threat to the LibDems in particular. It is a possibility though that the LibDems’ recent anti-Iraq, pro-Palestine, libertarian stance plays badly in the minds of ‘white flight’ protest voters.
Is connaught square near this failed attack?
re 203 - nowhere near (other than also in London)
189 Sean Cruddas stated he wanted to be DL in order to represent the views of members to the government, and not to be a part of govt.
He seems a man of high integrity.
One aspect Mike has not referred to in terms of Brown’s possible tenure of office is his moral fibre/fortitude or lack of it in terms of actually holding down the job, which is altogether of a different order compared with that of having been Chancellor.
Perhaps we should disregard comments of him being “psychologically flawed”, etc, notwithstanding that these were supposedly uttered by a person close to the very top of Labour’s hierachy. But then again, perhaps not.
Home Secretary appears with new junior Minister, Admiral Sir Alan West, DSC, former First Sea Lord and Falklands veteran.
205. I think that’s about right. He said he wasn’t after the cars and government perks, but I was hoping that he could be persuaded.
197. Sounds like the Home Guard, which one is Corporal Jones?
197: Now that truly would be a pair of defections worth waiting for!
208. Would it not be better for him to further his agenda inside the Government rather than outside though - A sort of Quid - Pro - Quo? Could it be the fact that he knows if he became a minister he would have to back policies he did not agree with?
How Jon Cruddas voted on key issues since 2001:
Has never voted on a transparent Parliament. votes, speeches
A mixture of for and against introducing a smoking ban. votes, speeches
Moderately for introducing ID cards. votes, speeches
Very strongly for introducing foundation hospitals. votes, speeches
Moderately against introducing student top-up fees. votes, speeches
Strongly for Labour’s anti-terrorism laws. votes, speeches
Very strongly for the Iraq war. votes, speeches
Very strongly against investigating the Iraq war. votes, speeches
Very strongly against replacing Trident. votes, speeches
Very strongly for the fox hunting ban. votes, speeches
Very strongly for equal gay rights. votes, speeches
http://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/jon_cruddas/dagenham
207. These ‘exciting’ appointments all look rather underwhelming so far. Little different to Blair’s appointment of Lord Sainsbury and Lord Simon - arguably somewhat less impressive. It’s just the same 1997 script rewritten with a cheaper pen on a worn out notepad.
212. They’re broadly the same faces but rearranged in a better way to suit their talents. I suppose the lower rungs will be where we see the genuinely new faces.
Genuine but amusing:
>>
29 June 2007
The Queen has approved that Loyd Grossman Esq OBE, FSA, BA, MSc Econ be appointed Chairman of the Churches Conservation Trust for a term of three years from 1 July 2007.
212. Absolutly i it is naff - they obviously feel that people do not see through it. Pathetic!!!!
To my mind the British Govt. has become an absolute joke.
So much for substance - they have just said what they would like to aspire too. They have their hands on the machiney of government and yet still they cannot change anything! Complete Crap and Bollocks!!!!
:lol:
Re 169, Jonathan “Their utter arrogance is to assume that it was their country alone in the first place. Like everyone else, there just here through a happy accident of birth, standing on the shoulders of giants.”
Any chance you could put something to that effect on the next labour manifesto. Please?
205. A genuine question receives an interesting answer. Ta.
Cruddas may well be a man of integrity but his views are curious for a supposed lefty. Very strongly for Iraq, in favour of ID cards, strongly for 90 day detention, hates an inquiry into Iraq.. a lot of it is boilerplate Blairism.
Maybe he’s not so intriguing after all.
216. Typical Labour supporter Jonathan. Believes that everyone else is more entitled to the family silver but the family!!!
It was Labour after all who repeatedly put out the welcome mat for the Soviet Union. Labour have and always will be the traitor within. Immigration is key to Labour’s political survival as new entrants to this country our enthusistic to stay and will support Labour out of gratefulness. It is interesting that some types of imigrant 3rd and 4th generation of a particular group despise the eastern europeans coming here. Ironic as the Eastern Europeans seem to fit in better but i personally don’t want any of them here.
Quite a few real lefties understood Saddam’s genocidal awfulness and were in favour of Iraq. Ann Clywd, for example.
219. Yes if they had gone to war to change regime that would have been fine but it was the manipulation of the facts and the wilful intent of misrepresenting and utilising out of date material (The downloaded Academic text from the internet) that get’s up my nose.
Brown is just as guilty as Blair.
219. We all understood Saddam’s genocidal awfulness. But (a) that wasn’t the reason we were given for the war, and (b) it’s not always, sadly, sufficient reason to go to war anyway - cf Stalin and Mao.
But we had this debate upthread. I believe you lost.
No Saddam and his evil family lost!
My eyes glazed over and I didn’t take part. I like to pick on guys my own size
217. I really think that there are real limits to the value of these theyworkforyou.com profiles.
219…but most thought George Bush was far worse - the kind of balanced and commonsense judgement one has come to expect from Labour people over the years. We had the same thing in the Cold War, with most of the Labour Party thinking Reagan’s America was as bad or even worse than the USSR. Same again in 1939 with trade unions trying to sabotage the war effort against Hitler.
225. As i said before Labour are the traitors within. Ranting on about Tories but after the defeat of Socialism implementing Economic policy that is not disimilar to tory neo- classical economics!!!
Labour have not changed though in terms of Social policy and freedom of actions. This can be personified in Mummies election to the DL. Alan Johnson who is head and shoulders above her must be really pissed off!!!
Martin Day, Post 171 “For the record i am a “Liberal” centrist”
Martin Day, Post 218 “It is interesting that some types of imigrant 3rd and 4th generation of a particular group despise the eastern europeans coming here. Ironic as the Eastern Europeans seem to fit in better but i personally don’t want any of them here.”
If you are a liberal centrist, then I am the Pope.
SUSPECT VEHICLE ON PARK LANE - CLOSED OFF BY POLICE
228. Ummmm, could be just checking mind you.
I wonder who will be the first minister to resign?
As Brown has advised that he has a moral compass to his leadership it will probably be money and sex that do for the first resignations. What will make it difficult is the almost insestuious cliqueness of his cabinet.
225. Ah yes, I remember it well. You had to be at Uni in the 1980s to really appreciate the asinine and dreary hatred of Reagan, by student lefties. To them Reagan was Satan, Hitler and Alien in one.
I think it must be Freudian, this leftwing hatred of America. Something connected with the Oedipus complex. They all hate their dads.
It’s also boring. It always amazes me how lefties manage to think themselves groovy and radical when they espouse the most predictable and mediocre of views.
220,
Martin its about time some people got of their knees and stopped taking on some of the terrorist agenda, and blaming the west for everything.
If the proposed attack today, was to target a nightclub, because of how women dress, and western values, but we buy into its all because of foreign policy, then we fail to understand the change the terrorist wishes to impose on democratic states.
202 With great respect Observer , the defector in Sandwell joined the Conservatives in 1999 and became Deputy leader of the Conservative group in I believe 2000 , he was expelled from the Conservatives after his arrest last year . It has been a safe Conservative ward since around 2000 generally with LibDems 2nd and Labour a close 3rd .
227. Well all i can say to that is i quit the tory party in 2005 over the immigration focus.
Advising that a particular set of society does not like the new arrivals is in no way anti- Liberal and indeed as a Liberal you should recognise free speech. I live with the fact that we have an ethnically diverse society - I don’t riot, spit on people or stop them from expressing there views. In fact the reason why i have dyslexia was because 3 black men kicked my head in (Unprovoked). So maybe i have more reason to be hostile to immigrants than most. My view is if an existing set of immigrants do not want a new set of people entring the country - then it would be better if they all went - Volountary than create further tensions.
I did not realise it was that long ago, but as you say, generally with the LibDems second. This result for them when they normally do well at by-elections and with the chance to concentrate their forces in a ward with a long Focus tradition is very poor.
I believe that prior to 1999, that particular ward in Sandwell was pretty good for the Lib Dems.
232. You miss understand me - I was talking about Iraq. Iraq has nothing to do with Bin Laden until US / UK invaded. I was focusing on the lies about going to war on the UK political climate not whether countering terrorism or this bomb in London was related.
I take the view that Terrorism from Bin Laden and his Ilke started many years before 9 / 11. The mistake of Iraq was and think about this: conducting a traditional war against an asymetrical enemy. The west would have been attacked anyway are conduct in Iraq has meant the light shines on us now. What the US / UK should have done is used the $200 billion plus on stamping out the terrorists organisation and ideology. Saddley they did not.
234. My sympathies, Martin. It would take a saint not to develop some fairly robust anti-immigration opinions, however contrary, after an experience like yours.
238. Thank you.
234 “. . .i quit the tory party in 2005 over the immigration focus.” I believe you - but the impression that you are giving in your posts is that you did this because they were not extreme enough, rather than too extreme. Such as “I live with the fact that we have an ethnically diverse society…”. You “live with” the fact, whereas I celebrate it. It is political and cultural diversity which may (emphasise *may*) sometimes cause frictions - not ethnic diversity.
232. Dez - if that was indeed the motive for the attack then aren’t you ashamed as a Labour supporter that your government has allowed the immigration into the UK of very large numbers of people who espouse extremely illiberal social attitudes of this sort? Aren’t you also ashamed that your party has sucked up to so-called ‘moderate leaders’ of these population groups who in fact hold what most British people would think to be very extreme views? Aren’t you ashamed that your party has courted the votes of extremists by making not very subtle allusions to the Jewishness of senior Conservative politicians?
This whole bomb business gets more curious.
When is the Ferror v Blake match at Wimbledon?
240. Why do you celebrate it? What is their to celebrate? It is what we are. I don’t know anybody who get’s up every day and punches the air and says we have X amount of different cultures in this country.
No i quit the tories because i thought going on about immigration all the time was not right. If you think i am extreme then it does not say a lot about this country because i am extremley Liberal! But not a LD of course. If advising of ones experiences is seen as extreme then i think i should become an immigrant of another country! Talk about PC gone mad.
For the record i was beaten up by 3 black men - I did not treat all black men with contempt afterwards indeed i helped a bloke out from Ghana financially when i was doing my MSc, when maybe as the money borrowed from a bank would have been better kept by me.
243 When it stops raining.
Probably November sometime.
Re 245, Peter I see.
240. I was also talking about new immigration - this is causing real problems to the Housing market. As people have to sleep somewhere! 2.5 million more since Labour were elected in 1997. Two and a half Birmingham’s!!!!!
221 Point of order SeanT with regards the Iraq debate up thread, I thought you asked for Pax - its a score draw at least
247. I would say this for Brown’s cabinet even though it is crap - He has made a housing minister a cabinet level minister. That must tell you there is a problem there. I listened to a debate conducted by Stuart Jackson MP and i would agree with a lot of what he had to say.
240. You are very niave if you think by discussing an issue or commenting on factionalisation of society by groups is somehow being extreme. Maybe it is just that i am in touch with society and a lot of people live pretty out of touch lives. Does it not tell you something of my amiability and aceptance in migrant communities that i can tell you of their gripes?
Lord Stevens named as International Security Adviser…
232,
Salad Days,obviously I don`t like people who espouse extremely illiberal social attitudes of this sort.
And I love living in the United Kingdom because of its way of life.
However I am not sure if any government could stop people, just because of views they hold on say womens rights, as long as they did not suggest violence against people in any way.
I am ashamed if as you say they have courted the votes of extremists
by using a persons religon or anti-semitism in any way.
However you will have to forgive me, because I don`t know about the situation you allude to.
re 247 - of course that same immigration is a great supply-side economic effect - keeping wage inflation unusually low coincidentally with a period of high economic growth. It’s actually been quite smart economics and has long been an engine of economic growth in the US. This debate isn’t just a social one, it’s also an economic one
250. I would have thought Labour had had enough of the Police sniffing round there government. Is this surely not an effort to give Brown some sort of legitamacy after Cash for Peerages? But of course no spin!!!!
Brown’s whole government is a complete farce.
251. ‘I don`t know about the situation you allude to.’
You have obviously been living under a stone for the last few years in that case.
252. It’s not great if you want wages to go up!
What this immigration does is marginise the low paid (Indigenous poulation). SLows the pay growth of the lower quartiles of employees pay and causes huge rises in house prices. Who does this effect most 18 - 35 year old’s. Probably you! It certainly effects me or has effected me. I don’t see it as being good that average earnings have slowed down - Why? Average earnings include are worked out for a cross section of the british workforce. This include the fat cat’s - you know the ones that DL candidates wanted to stop having huge bonuses. At the bottom of the labour market wages are being pressed down to the minimum wage. Whilst it is good this acts as a collar the immigration is acting on a cap.
So if Labour want to contimue winning elections i suggest that you don’t refer to average earnings being slowed as a good thing. It is not as explained above! The other interesting thing is net disposable income will be deminished due to rises in interest rates and other utility bills ot essentials such as petrol.
237,
Martin, wasn`t directed at you personally just in general, when the motives of Terrorists by many are seen just through the prism of foreign policy.
I think its much deeper than that alone, and in many cases the hatred of western values, women and gay rights in a democratic Liberal society, is a real challenge to some angry young men.
However it has to be those fundementalists which have to change and we have to at sometime stand up to them rather than than say its all our fault.
250.
“Lord Stevens named as International Security Adviser”
Someone to tell the Cabinet members where to salt away their private incomes?
Isn’t he a Lib Dem?
254.
As I say sorry for my ignorance on this subject can you explain then I will comment. Thanks
256. It’s alright - I quite agree with what you say the fundamentalists are the ones who need to change or engage positively with our governments to change relations. I can understand them not wanting our culture or society but the key thing is choice. They have a choice but they don’t want us to have one!
Although i am said by some to be extreme, my view is if they don’t like it they should go as simple as that! That is what western countries are about choice - freedom of action, speech / expression and movement.
Report on UK Polling Report re YouGov poll in The Economist about expectations of Brown and Cameron.
Cameron seems to come out of this much better than other recent polls.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/index.php
260. Interesting reading.
My feeling since Blair has gone is that i have become very pro-tory indeed. In fact i would have said despite recent set backs i have become the most pro-tory i have been for a very long time. Pre - 2001 levels although i have personal reasons why i fell out with the tories but that seems to have gone!
Where as i had time for Blair i have none what so ever for Brown. I think he is manipulative and shallow - A mandateless manipulator no less!!!!
Like “the thing” a naff attempt at being something he is not!!! 
:lol: 
Vehicle in Park Lane Underground carpark “connected” to bomb in Haymarket….
261 “i have become very pro-tory indeed” - a bunker mentality? Know the feeling since Cameron came on the scene.
263. The Tories are not in the Bunker - Labour are!
The reason i have become Pro - Tory is i have reflected on everything said and done on both sides. Brown is Labour’s runner - up candidate to Blair. Brown is second best. Altough he never had the courage to fight an election - something ongoining!!!!
Cameron esposes a similar positiveness to Blair and is able to articulate his position with the same clarity and purpose.
While Brown has a purpose it seems only for him to become PM and “try” to control events to enable him to sustain himself in office. There is nothing more to him. It is all about me (Brown), where as it should be all about us (the UK). Whilst we will never agree on the “parties” persay you must agree with me that Brown is nothing put reheated slop in comparison to Blair’s Gormate meal?
264 I respectfully disagree. I think there is much more to Brown than just personality. He’s damn well educated and did achieve quite alot in no11. As for Blair and Cameron, I think Britain is currently blessed with some pretty talented polticians all round. Let’s leave it there shall we?
243. Any minute now BW on Court 1
265. Ok. I must go and do something else!
I did not relise their was another thread !
Re 266, HneryG many thanks.