Do punters have any real idea about the outcome?
July 18th, 2007
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Is following the markets a good idea?
Ever since the Dunfermline by-election in February 2006, when I bottled out of most of my Lib Dem position in the final half hour, I have been very wary of the predictive powers of punters as evidenced in betting price movements. Then, it will be recalled, the Labour price was 1/5 just as the returning officer started to announce the result. Crazy.
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What I find interesting about the current Ealing Southall market on Betfair is just how little money has been traded. Just over an hour ago the total was barely £30,000 and it does not look as if any party is approaching this with real confidence. That total is pitifully small though it should surge by tomorrow.
My last by election bets were in June last year when I took a big odds on position on the Tories in Bromley. I won but for the party’s margin to have been reduced to just 600 votes was a massive shock. Again following the markets could have been very costly.
The other by election on that day, in Gwent, also saw an odds on favourite, Labour, not making it.
Ealing Southall is proving to be a great by election but it has yet to arouse the real interest of punters and those involved don’t appear confident enough to risk very much. The best betting odds now have the Tories out to 6/1.
Mike Smithson
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Mike. I’m hoping to post an Ealing and Sedgefield update later this afternoon (A day late, apologies !). Just waiting for one more call from CCHQ.
The politics punter is probably more likely to bet based on sentiment and wishful thinking. How many Lib Dem activists would put money on Labour (or the Tories) to win Ealing? In political betting many people do put their money where their mouth is which can skew the markets.
Mike Sole. Roger’s bet on the Tories but then that shouldn’t give Tony Lit much comfort.
Good article and good illustration of why betting odds don’t mean anything. All parties use them to talk up their chances, but they mean very little.
Mike, to answer the question: No.
Not a clue.
no, nobody really knows. i can’t see there being a problem in sedgefield but ES anything could happen on a low turnout.
Only Jack W knows and he is not telling yet.
Mike
You are forgetting the traditional bookmakers. They have at times offered attractive odds on this market and that will have syphoned money away from Betfair.
Even now you can get 7/2 LDs with William Hill and they are not restricting amounts.
Ealing could be anybody’s. There will be a good post rationalisation for any result.
Personally I went for Labour by a whisker, but with very little confidence. I expect to be in the remedial section when Double Carpet posts the results on Friday
Tom Watson’s new bombshell - had it emerged - could have been bad for Labour - driving Tories to the lD’s. Maybe that is why they have chosen not to publish (and be damned?)
7 Hmm..you think so?
Late last nite, a little bird whispered something interesting in my ear. Well, it wasn’t actually a little bird, but it did have wings.
Probably not, but if I was as confident as some of the Tory posters sound I would be putting my money where my mouth was.
Re 10, Peter, do tell
Peter the P. Putting a few quid on the LDs by the sound of things?
Thanks to steve for his apologetic note on the last thread. He’s not a Creature after all - Creatures never apologise, they just repeat themselves a few times.
2. Don’t know Mike. I am broadly a Conservative supporter yet I have never been of the view they could win Ealing. Did I back the Tories? Yes but only because I thought there would be hedging opportunties shortly after, and there was.
I would never have backed them as a straight win bet not even to the tune of a fiver.
I’m not betting on the by-election itself - there appears to be no clear information and everyone’s bigging up their own party with little confidence in their own canvassing.
I’m interested in the impact on the seats markets and think the upside is with the Tories.
If the Tories come second, it will solidify their seats in the mid 270s.
If they are third, they’ll continue to languish in the high 260s.
But if they win, it’ll be the end of the Brown honeymoon, a historic turnaround and I would expect them to swap places with Labour - Tories at 290 seats and Labour down to 280s.
If Labour win, there’ll be little impact on seats markets which has already marked up on the Brown poll bounce to the 290s.
If they come third, the beneficiaries are going to be the Tories, not the LDs with their history of by-election success.
So, no point in buying Labour or LibDem seats, but a small punt on the Tories bursting the Brown balloon - either by coming first, or pushing Labour into third - seems good value.
That’s what I’ve done.
12/13 It was indeed The Winged One who spoke. Could the Yellow Peril be advancing in West London? Nobody can be sure.
But I took the 7/2.
14 Yes, I noticed that Nick and was a bit shocked by your tone. I was even more shocked when the so-called Creature acknowledged the error.
As you rightly point out, Creatures don’t do that.
Nobody knows how it’s going to go because it is a very strange constituency with several different cultural communities.
But the interesting fact politically speaking is just that it *is* so unpredictable - this is a seat that Labour should have no worries about, given the much vaunted ‘Brown Bounce’; and if they are worried the script says they ought to be worried about the Lib Dems.
But they aren’t worried about the Lib Dems at the moment they are obsessed with Tony Lit.
17 PtP. “The Winged One” ???????
Surely nor Rik’s horse !!
http://fawkesthepheonix.tripod.com/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/pegasus.jpg
19 Maybe, Marcus, it’s because a loss to the LDs is bearable, but not to the Conservatives?
Or even :
http://www.pantheon.org/areas/gallery/mythology/europe/greek/pegasus.gif
Is that Rik in the foreground …. the bare faced cheek of it !!
20. No Jack, the wings of this creature were held together by wax, not bullsh*t.
Trite, if I may be so impolite, Marcus.
Southall has always been a minefield. Sid Bidwell was retained by Labour as mp long after his “sell buy date” because he kept the lid on it.
When I lived in the borough in the 80’s there was an occaision when one ward signed up over 200 new members in an afternoon at a garden party - Council candidate selection was imminent.It is that kind of place.
Rod Crosby has shown us the stats for typical Government loss of support at by-elections, and Southall is well within range. Labour is
23 PtP. Not Icarus !!!
24. My entry was chopped for some reason - it should have finished that Labour has less than 50% of the vote and you can chuck in a cultural divide or two and the anti labour swing in London as well.
I reckon Labour is doing a spread bet strategy. If they do win then fine and if they come second the the LD’s it can be shrugged off as a nothing - and point to the Tories (with DC’s nname on the ticket) coming third, so strategically still a win
AS long as the Tories come third is the Labour strategy
I was out canvassing yesterday in Ealing and some chap came up to me and said that he had 33 votes in the bag for us - quite shocked, I replied how could this be and he explained that he was the head of his family and his family would vote whichever way he said they should. Hilarious.
So Jack W are you going to come clean and tell us that your little birdie in central office has told you
1. Jack for gods sake go chase CCHQ about an update. Worse than salesmen these people, never get back to you unless you pester them.
Mind you try, GCHQ first they may have more information than anyone….
27 - which party are you?
I would be very carefulabout listening to any activist at this stage (or indeed at any stage) PtP, the figures they are getting or giving are designed to boost morale as much as anything, yesterday’s thread was full of that sort of stuff.
Tom Hunt @ 27 — “his family would vote whichever way he said they should. Hilarious.”
It is only hilarious if there is a secret ballot. With postal voting, where the paterfamilias can inspect votes before entrusting them to Her Majesty’s Royal Mail, it is frightening.
Let me know if you find a political party willing to campaign against it!
16 - I think that’s right. Most sensible people would predict a Labour win here, and I think that would be in line with the current spread betting on the GE result.
19 - well that’s just spin. Pointless. Do it on yer blog, son, not here.
27 - ho, ho! So he thinks. I bet they don’t vote how he tells them.
Yes, come on Jack W and PtP. Spill the beans if you know something.
As above re Steve: I may have been harsh too. He is no creature and is not delusional.
There are a few delusional ones on this site, believing that dark forces are taking over, who do appear on this site though. Suggest Tory fundraisers get in touch with them asap.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6904066.stm
Talking of delusional… Berezovsky stirring again. Best get the man back on QT or Today if he has something to say. Or give him a chat show.
32 - cripes I’d forgotten about that.
A pox on postal voting, one of the worst things this government has done in my view.
Essentially Labour seem to think that they do badly from normal elections because, although they have more latent support, Tory voters are more motivated to vote. Well, if that’s true the Tories deserve to win and these notional Labour supporters who donu’t bother to turn out can get stuffed.
For me, it’s compulsory voting - at the ballot box - or nothing
“these notional Labour supporters who donu’t bother to turn out can get stuffed.” I thought it was just the ballot boxes that were getting stuffed..
I think PtP and John Wheatley have got a point I had not thought of at all - I have kind of had a light bulb go off in my head.
Labour aren’t trying to win, they are just trying to make sure we Conservatives are seen to lose.
So could the Lib Dems come through the middle and steal it after all?
It would save Ming I suppose.
They are already in touch, SBS (35). In fact, they are controlling them…..
Did anyone see Crick and Cameron on Newsnight yesterday. David was not best pleased. ‘I thought you had a proper job now Michael’ almost Prscott-esque.
Anyway it’s seemed a good idea lately to sel share in Cameron and I can see a further fall on the way. He’s clearly back-tracking on several issues.
I just can’t believe he is stupid enough to think that Labour has won 3 elections puely because of Tony Blair’s media skills.
Dangerous that, Marcus (39). Something similar happened to Neil Kinnock…..
39 - no, Labour must be trying to win. Losing to anyone would be disasterous - just *slightly* less disasterous if its the Libs who sneak it.
28/29/34 Galloglass/Yokel/st.john. Patience dear friends !!
The CCHQ carrier pigeon has a far way to come. It’ll certainly not get to me before 4.00pm ….. unless it’s eaten by some bird of prey en-route !
36. There is a possibility that Berewhatever way his name is spelt didnt come out with this story in a freelance manner.
41 Dave has been having a bit of a mare these past few weeks, looking a bit tired IMO.
The spin cycle has started again I see - abandon thread, abandon thread!
25 Jack - You may think that. I couldn’t possibly comment.
46 - maybe if the going gets tough he’ll jack it in and go back to hunting stags, or dancing the charleston, or whatever it was he liked doing…
44. Oh bugger !! :
http://farm1.static.flickr.com/142/344867019_57522b9fae.jpg
47. yes here is a photo of the PB community with Mike casually sitting on top of us all > http://www.timhunkin.com/page_pictures/41_washing_machines.jpg
51 Jimbo.
50. Jack W, you’re a BAD man
Peter the punter
I’ve just sent you an e-mail.
51 - And oh so apt.
50. You are going to upset Tyson with such violent imagery!
34 St John
Icky was pretty open about his views on site last nite so no need for me to add anything.
As for those who are rather touchingly concerned about my susceptibility to some of the activist spin you get here, thank you but I’ve been in this game a while. I know who and what I trust!
Marcus - “So could the Lib Dems come through the middle and steal it after all?”
Seeing as they started in second, I’m not sure that it’s “coming through the middle” - yet more spin and deception. Let’s just bring on Thursday. Presumably we can’t agree in advance what is good for whom and what is not, to save the top like activity on Friday?
I just sent a post about the possibility of postal vote ‘irregularities’ which got swallowed. I know that results are called into question because of it but is there past experience of this in this area?
44. Oh come on, not the old my pigeon got eaten story…thats been running around since the first distance learning courses in Roman times…Anyway it should have supporting pigeons, that Hollywood style take the bullet mean’t for it…
58 here’s a better idea.
Lets predict now:
(a) what the Tory spin will be if they lose by a decent margin / come third and
(b) what the Labout spin will be if they don’t win.
And then when the usual suspects start trotting out the nonsense after the result, we can refer them back to this thread.
Any suggestions as to the angle our favourite spinners will take?
I see Labour’s membership is now down to 182,000 in 2006.
Just for clarity I’m sute Labour would love a stonking win. But Tories third would be a nice runner up - its a place bet as it were
I asked this before but nobody answered.
If there was a GE tomorrow what number on the target list would ES be for the conservatives ? 150-200 ?
61 - From the spinners handbook:
- By-elections are not true contests
- Ethnicity of the majority of constituents means the result is not relevant, there are particular community issues that makes the contest non comparable on a national scale.
- Well, we did badly in A for the reasons stated above, but if you look at B we improved our share of the vote by x%, more than either of the other 2 major parties.
64 Jamie.
It’s the 97th safest Labour seat according to electoralcalculus, so somewhere in the 110s on target list I guess.
64 - It wouldn’t be - but the new Ealing Central & Acton seat, which includes the Eastern end of the current Ealing Southall, would be a tight three way marginal with the Tories slightly ahead.
67. Thank you !
Kind of puts into perspective the chances of a Con win - should they not be 20/1 to win this seat ?
66 - doh! - sorry got the maths the wrong way round - it’s something like 202 on the list of Labour targets, so something in the 220s or 230s overall.
Sorry.
Re 32 John L “Tom Hunt @ 27 — “his family would vote whichever way he said they should. Hilarious.”
It is only hilarious if there is a secret ballot. With postal voting, where the paterfamilias can inspect votes before entrusting them to Her Majesty’s Royal Mail, it is frightening.
Let me know if you find a political party willing to campaign against it! ”
Respect, and indeed me. See here
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/2007/03/end-postal-votes-in-demand-now-end-vote.html
or more generally here:
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/search/label/Voting%20Fraud
I meant 66. But 67 gives the opportunity for even more spinning after the next GE. My head hurts.
69 - a very bad day - it’s 182 not 202 on the hit list of Labour seats and then add on the LD’s with smaller than 11000 majority and you get somewhere in the low 200s.
Anyway, it’s a very long way down on the list - if we took it and all teh more marginal seats ahead of it, Labour would be left with 96 bseats - that certainly puts it in perspective.
On that basis, we can spin/argue over the swing to Tories tomorrow.
I will be thrilled if the Tories take the seat and like Sean Fear pleased if the LDs take the seat. Either one interrupts the honeymoon.
I’ll be pleased if Labour take the seat and we come second.
I’ll feel neutral if Labour hold, Libs are second but we are a very close third. That’s to be expected.
I’ll feel bad if we stand still or make the pathetic 1.3% gain suggested by Rod Crosby last night.
69. Make that 40/1 !
73 - I’m sure most sensible and realistic Conservatives would take that view.
73 - “I’ll feel neutral if Labour hold, Libs are second but we are a very close third. That’s to be expected.”
Absolutely ridiculous. Why do you bother?
All week you’ve been telling us its going to be close, Labour/Tory or Tory/Labour. Please stop. Just maintain silence if you’ve lost the courage of your convictions, don’t put us through this cringeworthy climbdown.
I think if the Tories comes third you should absent yourself for at least two days so we don’t have to read reams of amateur spin.
Labour if lost seat - mid-term, unusual demographic, tories/lib dems are the true losers, Brown not made impact yet, Cameron leads divided party, yada, yada, yada.
Tories if third or second and no progress - unusual demographic, disgusting campaign by other parties, policy review will change things, Brown must call election before it all goes pear shaped, labour/lib dems are the true losers, yada, yada, yada.
Lib dems if third or second and no progress - unusual demographic, lack of national air time, electorate didn’t realise we were the real challengers, labour/tories are the real losers, yada, yada, yada.
64,66. But of course the Ealing Southall being contested on Thursday has already disappeared under the boundary changes. The new Ealing Southall being contested in 2009 is a far safer seat for Labour. Btw, if Baxter has the new seat as the 97th safest Labour seat, that must imply it’s about number 245 on the target list, not 110!
77 that sums it up nicely no need for any other comments really.
What I don’t get is why people who support a political party feel the need to make the most outrageous predictions of immediate success for that party? Even when so often they get proven completely wrong, they still do it. Indeed, when proven wrong they exhibit an amazing Orwellian “doublethink”, and say the result is what they were expecting all along, and actually is good for their “side”.
It points to the fact that their interest in politics in fact stems from some deep emotional need to be “on the winning side”, and has nothing to do with principle.
Test, Rik, Snowflakes etc seem to be to perfect examples of this type.
Much as I disagree with his political views on some things, Sean Fear is to me the perfect example of someone who doesn’t fit this type. He’s clearly convinced his politics are correct, but he’ll criticise his party when he’s really hacked off with it and be realistic.
People - not predicting instant success for your political party is not a sign of disloyalty. It’s a sign of common sense. You can prcclaim the ultimate victory of what you believe in all you like, but don’t hang yourself out to dry on the next by-election result. It’s boring for us and embarrassing for you.
Jenny Willott, Cardiff lib Dem MP seemed to get the same impression that I did at Southall and Ealing. She was discussing PMQs on Radio 5 as I drove back from Manchester.
The Tories seem to have gone quiet about E & S - I though they were a certainty last week!
On Mikes original question It is impossible for a fleeting visitor to the consituency to judge what is happening , still less a stay-at-home punter. I am going on the mood at one (and only one!) party HQ (shame about Jacks pigeon - should have flown higher!) and any one basing a bet on my comments should bear that in mind.
As someone said earlier I will tend to bet on the horse I like - if I think it has at least a chance of winning and the odds are OK. E & S would be a terrific seat to win given the lack of a strong council presence and the resources that the Tories have put into fighting the by election.
Re 80, Stonch, fair enough. My take on Ealing Southall is that the top 3 are all in with a chance. That said some reports indicate that the labour campaign is not as active as it should be given the number of members in the local CLP. (That said I am sure that some of them are only “paper members”)
As for the spin line? Who knows.
80. I think the reason that people lose perspective is the excitement level to rate of events ratio.
One GE every 4 years is a long time for anoraks to wait and previously every bye election, council election used to be a big event for political types.
Now with the internet - every poll, rumour, link or even blog posting is suddenly the holy grail of why their party is suddenly going to sweep the board (in 4 years hence).
In summary - perhaps we all need to get out more
P.S. Stonch - have you sampled the wares from this place - superb - not ramping but I visited recently and a mixed case was a revelation
http://www.blackislebrewery.com/
82 - yes, there’s a chance any of the top 3 could win, but the Tories should never have dug themselves in this hole by predicting victory.
Their whole strategy - picking a low-grade sleb opportunist, flailing around - has been daft. They should have just run a decent candidate, and accepted Labour were going to win. Then they could have just pointed to the fact that winning a Labout safe seat during Brown’s bounce was never going to happen, and then moved on.
Now, a loss for the Tories is going to look bad where in reality it isn’t anything of the sort.
68 - I guess it depends whether you think by-elections have any bearing on the likely success of the main opposition party.
You could argue that a main opposition that was in a serious position to win a GE should be getting good results in mid-term parliamentary by-elections, as Labour were in the mid-nineties.
I think there is some truth in that.
83 - Jamie I haven’t but I have a feeling I’ve seen their stuff in bigger Oddbins stores. Will pick up a bottle next time I see one and see if I agree.
While we’re on the beer subject - to any London posters - the Pembury Tavern in Hackney have a brilliant beer festival on, starts today, runs until Saturday - http://stonch.blogspot.com/2007/07/pembury-taverns-3rd-beer-festival.html
There are a couple of really choices beers there…
27. That’s nothing. I was given a firm promise of 100 votes by a young man on behalf of all his family and friends.
Does the average punter know what’s going to happen in Southall? No. However, if you arrested all three campaign managers and gave them a truth drug I think you’d get a pretty good idea of how things stand. In other words there are people working in Southall who have a good idea of the way the wind is blowing and word gets out to some extent. The only cautionary note is the high level of South Asian voters in this constituency and the difficulty, I would have thought, of gauging their true voting intentions. An LD poster made the point( I haven’t checked it), though, that the LDs were pretty accurate with their forecasts about Leicester South which obviously has many South Asian voters. Of course you have to be extremely careful whom you talk to when you’re picking up info especially if you want to risk money on it. Peter the P is, I think, old enough and wise enough to do so! Mind you if he gets it wrong the dog could be on short rations for quite a while!
I originally thought Labour hold and neck and neck for second. Sadly I am revising this to LD second with an outside chance of nicking it on a low turn out. I agree with fellow Tories that a narrow LD win is probably better for the Party than a narrow loss because it damages Labour and an LD win can be written off, to some extent, as another by election flash in the pan. Nonetheless third place would be a sad disappointment after all the hopes at the beginning of the campaign of at least a decent second place. I’d be staggered if Labour don’t hold Sedgefield with the LDs a decent second.
It would depend on the third place, Blue Moon. A third place that saw the Conservatives at around 21% or worse, would be disappointing. One that saw them on 25% or so would be okay.
70. Me too! I think we should go back to the system of only allowing postal votes to those who properly need them. While we’re at it, the processing / verification / opening of postal votes should only be allowed after polls have closed.
90 I agree with that
Also think that Black Isle is good (83, 86).
80. I actually think that doublethink is a genuine phenomenon and I do it myself sometimes. Parties sometimes get over-excited about their prospectrs because they believe in their own propaganda. It’s only logical that a passionately-held belief is something which should be “obvious” or “logical” to most people. I remember when the New Party / People’s Alliance was founded in 2003, its leadrs seemed to believe genuinely that it was going to make a big impact, like the SDP did in 1981, and win a few MSPs.
Benedict White @ 70 re postal voting fraud.
Thanks for the links to your blog. I shall search youtube.com for Mr Galloway MP(susp).
Bugger John [87] - I have put you down as only getting 402 votes in total, sounds as if I have seriously underestimated you!
This may be a stupid question but - is JohnLoony the OMRLP candidate in ES?
95 - Apparantly so
Re 84, Stonch, fair comment.
85. By-elections give an excellent prediction of the next General election.
i) A 20% swing to the opposition in a by-election heralds a change of majority government. The only exception to this rule since 1945, was Mid-Staffs, 1990, when as we know the Tories saw the writing on the wall, and gave us a change of government by attentat…
ii) Since at least 1970, the Butler swing in by-elections has been a quite accurate indicator of the subsequent General Election, with a swing-back to government of 3-5%, average 4%.
So far, since 2005 the Tories have managed an average swing of 3.9%, which is quite pathetic by historical standards. Hague, IDS and Howard all did better. If Cameron can’t significantly increase this swing on Thursday, the implication is the next election will be a near-exact re-run of 2005.
The mid-term of a government should see drops in government support of about 20%. If Labour do significantly better than this on Thursday, they will coast to a comfortable victory at the next GE… It’s that simple.
Stonch - you know you used to be a pleasant and moderate kind of poster, and lately you really seem to have degenerated into anti-Tory nastiness. I liked the old Stonch a lot better.
At the GE, the Tories came a distant third to the LibDems. By rights we really should improve dramatically. If we are third but it’s a squeaker, that is neutral. It’s not what I expect however, I experct us to come second. But that is based on nothing more than my own expeience as one of a crowd of helpers in the seat. Perhaps we are all just over-optimistic. Anyway, whilst good second is my prediction, third in a three way marginal by a squeaker is perfectly fine.
83 - I think the Black Isle Brewery have a regular presence at the Edinburgh Farmers Market so you can catch them there if Munlochy is a little far to travel.
This lot are worth a whirl as well if you are up this way.
Breaking news: The Conservative and Unionist Party News Pigeon spotted alive…authenticity and credentials established through study of pigeon’s signature patriotic UK-shaped deposit…
I’ll get my hat.
You can run but you can’t hide.
If you get rid of postal voting you are taking the process back to the 19th century - making it virtually unique as a process unaffected by modernity. You should be suspicious of that - what with turnout at
99 ‘Stonch - you know you used to be a pleasant and moderate kind of poster, and lately you really seem to have degenerated into anti-Tory nastiness.’
Really? I thought Stonch has been pretty consistent with the tone and content of his postings. Sure you’re not thinking of Stodge?
98. So the % of the vote compared to the last GE is the thing to watch - even in a reduced turnout ?
why are entries being chopped off in their prime - 101 is the second time that has happened to me today - Can’t be bothered to type it all again so I’ll just shout “Luddites” at you all for not liking postal voting
99. Yes, but, all this 1,2,3 stuff is not really relevant, except of course for perceptions, headlines and party morale. As I’ve said before, the narrow loss of a marginal can be a better result than the narrow hold of a safe seat….
Change in the vote and swing are the only sensible runes to be read from a by-election, controlled for place in the electoral cycle, and for “special” factors such as occurred in Blaenau Gwent…
101 Postal voting on demand takes the system back to the early to mid nineteenth century in some cases, as it undermines the integrity of the secret ballot.
99 - I haven’t said anything nasty about Tories - not fitting in with your delusions doesn’t equate to “nasty”. Certainly Benedict doesn’t seem to think I’m being nasty, see 97.
Sorry Test, I’m sure you’re a top lass really, but you have set yourself up for a fall with this Ealing Southall thing.
re 83.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/north_yorkshire/6904609.stm
“Save the hospital” party members are surely returning to their constituencies and preparing for power !
99 & 105 - Test/RodCrosby - the problem with both of your analyses is that any member of the public that has tuned into or read any coverage of this by-election will have got the impression its a really, really close run thing, as the Tories have this big hitter sexy candidate and are firing on all cylinders to win.
So basically the Tories are set up for a fall.
103. On average yes.
99 Test , the Conservatives were not a distant 3rd at the last GE , they were a close 3rd 2.8% behind the LibDems , and as the Conservative bar charts show , you were a clear close 2nd in the 2006 May locals to Labour . As Stonch says , all the early hype has set you up for a fall .
John Wheatley I have no problems per se with postal voting but the wider availibility of voting by post must meet the democratic test. That means there have to be rigorous controls to stop fraud and somehow we have to deal with the danger of voter intimidation. Unless you have solutions to these problems I’m in favour of going back to a far narrower basis for postal vote application with individual voters forced to make applications themselves and no interference by the political parties at all except by way of direct mail/doorstep reminders to people that they can get them in certain circumstances. Surely the need to keep trust in the democratic process trumps all other considerations.
109. You could argue however that if they had not “bigged up” their chances the LDs would have done the bar chart squeeze and the Con vote would drop below 2005 levels - in that situ DC would also get bashed.
Re 90, Johny Loony, OMRLP against postal voting?
Another sensible policy?
Shocking!
Re 93, JohnL no problem!
113 - hmmmm, maybe, yes.
109. I don’t quite see how it affects the analysis. The headline result of a by-election is a 3-day wonder at best. It has to be placed in the context of the bigger picture. Even dear old Michael Foot could gain a seat from the Tories in a by-election, Northfield ‘82, but a net-change of 250 votes did not herald a general election victory - it heralded (quite obviously) a landslide defeat!
107, rubbish. You had a go at me yesterday for predicting a strong second and said it contradicted everything else I’d ever posted, and Nick Palmer had to tell you I had, in fact, consistently predicted we’d come second. I stick with that, but doesn’t mean that if there’s a handful of votes in it between second and third I’d think that a bad result.
What Tories are looking for is a major improvement on the GE result. We also want to see Labour’s majority drastically reduced or, best of all, eliminated.
The more ardent LibDems on PB.com rub me up the wrong way as I’m sure I do them, but the fact is I only care about the national impact on the Tories and Labour, because nationally the LibDems are not that vital right now.
Re 104, John Wheatly “why are entries being chopped off in their prime - 101 is the second time that has happened to me today - Can’t be bothered to type it all again so I’ll just shout “Luddites” at you all for not liking postal voting”
Well I would shout back the approptiate reply alas it may get swallowed by an swear word filter and would not be good manners, so choose your favourite nasty insult, and imagine that is what I typed back to you.
108. Actually, if I understand this issue correctly this problem is going to deepen not get less over the next year or so.
From what I can gather, and the person that explained it should know what they are talking about, the pain is going to run a bit longer.
The ‘Save NHS Related Jobs’ Pressure Group may well find itself with a lot of cases to campaign on shortly.
Postal voting - you guys are like the operations people in companies I work for - argueing about share of the cake with only a limited interest in the size of the cake - just so long as it is perfectly formed
As a marketing chappie I want a bigger cake, particularly as the current cake (geddit!) is shrinking. A reliance on God - in the form of external events driving up interest is not good enough. We have to be concerned about the base business.
Bit of a mixed metaphor but get my drift. In particular voting should be instant and not take 30 minutes to go to and from
OT. Paddy Power have a new market called: What will Brown Introduce first in 2007?
Same Sex Marriages 11 - 10
Reduce the voting age for elections to 16 9 - 4
Compulsory flying of Union Jack flag on all public buildings 4 - 1
Reform the House of Lords 6 - 1
Up the age on sexual consent to 18 12 - 1
Legalise cannabis 33 - 1
Compulsory wearing of kilts for all male members of the cabinet on Hogmanay 500 - 1
Reading the report on PMQ’s today below it looks like the drugs review they announced will, on top of reclassifying cannabis from C to B, also legalise it for medicinal purposes. Therefore the definition of the 33/1 chance above may strictly be met, as they don’t specifiy the nature of the legalisation. FWIW I’ve put some of my lunch money on just in case!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6904547.stm
This was the 2005 result for the three main parties and I agree with Rod Crosby that the critical thing for the Tories is whether there is a LAB-CON swing and what its size is. The current gap is 27.2% so a swing of 13.6% (half the difference between the party shares last time) would be required for victory.
Labour 22,937 48.8%
Liberal Democrats 11,497 24.4%
Conservative 10,147 21.6%
I think you are being a bit hard on party organisers here Stonch and a couple of others. If the party don’t hype the potential of a by election it’s impossible to get the workers motivated, who wants to spend hours trudging the streets of West London to come third?
So naturally we are all told “it’s so close … your help in Southall could make all the difference…” and yes, occasionally people like you think it’s a mistake and that we have ‘raised expectations’ but the alternative is to virtually guarantee failure and worse, be *seen* to have made no effort.
The thing about a putting up a strong campaign in a ’safe’ Labour seat is that it sends the signal (dog whistle) that our party has substantial (if not quite winning levels) support everywhere, in every constituency.
117 - stop digging. You’ve consistently in breathless tones predicted a close Labour/Tory or close Tory/Labour result. Now you are saying third is “neutral” and to be expected. Give it a rest.
The Tories continuing to drift out on Betfair for ES. I’m very happy with this having laid them at 5/2 at the weekend.
120 John Wheatley I took the time to answer your post. You seem to have completely ignored the points Sean Fear and I made. Any thoughts? The serious cases of electoral fraud can hardly have escaped your attention.
For those who think the Tories will win ES, there’s free money on Betfair. Latest price is 7.6.
121. No chance on the Union Jack, PP have a get out in that just where are the flags flown exactly..Scotland..Northern Ireland?
Dont think same sex marriages is going to fly either but maybe I’m wrong. I get the impression they’ll stay with civil partnerships.
Why has the Tory price softened so much? Is it simply the Tory candidate/Labour donor story, or is there more to it?
123 - “I think you are being a bit hard on party organisers here Stonch and a couple of others. If the party don’t hype the potential of a by election it’s impossible to get the workers motivated, who wants to spend hours trudging the streets of West London to come third?”
yes but Marcus - HERE IS NOT THE PLACE TO DO IT! This is not an internal conservative/labour/libdem site and we don’t want to hear the drone of propaganda
Has Dave Cameron got a double chin? Looks like it from the photograph.
129 - I do wonder if anybody has had a good look at the postal votes.
Nick Palmer MP from a few threads ago on a 20 year old will and my comment:
177. That’s very poor indeed.
I will not mention Owen Oyston!
Have you ever heard the tale in Jeremy Paxman’s book who thought a tory MP thought that a witches covern controlled number 10 in the Major years and said Tory MP retreated to a monestry.
People are allowed to have strange views: look at some people who believed in Communism!!!
The Times article looks very selective in it’s quotes interesting all the same!!! I would say though, how do you know the bloke was not friegtened of Communism/ Soviet invasion or nuclear war? After all you were a communist before in your earlier life.
by Martin Day July 18th, 2007 at 3:55 pm
So in light of this what do you think of:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/6904066.stm
Does this mean that the Litvinenko diplomatic expolsions were the result of “paronoid delusions” permeating the top of government? After all it is alleged that a “senior” politician has had psychiatric treatment and his Colleagues have said he was psychologically flawed?
Re 120, john Wheatley, “Bit of a mixed metaphor but get my drift. In particular voting should be instant and not take 30 minutes to go to and from”
No, the first thing the vote should be is a secret ballot. To date there is no system other than going to a polling booth that does that. Until that changes there is no point in any other system.
132 Sorry - I should have thought of that. It occured to me the other day that the switch in Tory sentiment was due to them having seen something they didn’t like there.
It might also explain Labour being relatively relaxed. Anyone know how many postal voters are registered in ES?
126 BM ….because I think the ball is in your court. I hope it does not get chopped off
Fraud accounts for what - 1% of votes. On the other hand if we take 75% as a typical turn out as 1974 Feb and 1992 are the highwater marks of 80% plus, we have lost 15% of votes.
Which therefore is the bigger problem in terms of affecting the mandate given by an election? Whereas I am puting up things to solve the problem of turn out - postal voting, internet voting, Saturday sunday voting, Supermarket polling booths, it seems to be of no interest to you.
But you care deeply about a fraud in one ward in Handsworth. Mote, eyes, that sort of thing
I’m not sure I agree Mike. The critical thing for the Tories is the increase in their share of the vote. The Tories are bound to get quite a big swing but if it’s mainly due to LD and Others advancing( there’s quite a strong independent isn’t there?) that doesn’t give us much of a clue as to what sort of swing might occur in a GE in a genuine two Party contest. Actually I’m not sure the result will tell us much full stop( this is an atypical constituency and Labour would hope to do better on a GE level of turnout) but if Labour lost to the Tories it would be very damaging to GB and if they lose to the LDs quite damaging. Otherwise second is a better result for the Tories than for LDs and third somewhat less damaging because by elections are so important for the LDs. Personally I think you’re stuck with MC regardless because a long drawn out leadership contest is pretty difficult to conceive when an early GE is a distinct possibility.
41, 46 Cameron has been earmarked by Murdoch for replacement as Tory leader with William Hague.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/columnists/2007/07/stephan-shakesp.html
The Union of Subservient European Regions - USER is shocked that he is standing in favour of a referendum on their Constitution when they thought he would be the next Blair, and agree to anything for a bit of media favouratism. Cameron’s getting a good media licking now, and Hague’s gone very quiet.
134 Sean you will be sitting there with a lovely set of figures, beautifully correct but fewer and fewer people. The number participating is a measure of success for the democratic process.
Life is always a trade off
130 Stonch’s Drone Blog “we don’t want to hear the drone of propaganda”
Stonch - to be a little curt, you’re starting to drone on in the past few days too. It seems like every third post is from you, complaining about someone/something. Maybe it’s the weather getting you down, but just chill a bit.
People come here for all sorts of reasons, and if some of the Creatures of The Day want to propagandise then so be it. Most of us can separate out the betting info from the hyped-up activists. The more blinkered of them will all be crying into their canvass returns on Friday anyway…
The signal:noise ratio has dropped a bit on the site recently - or maybe I’m just being picky?
128. OT again. Yokel, how’s it looking for Bertie today. Have they proved he fibbed and got paid in USD not GBP yet?
http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/frontpage/2007/0718/1184706944004.html
Also thanks to Neil on the John Gormley tip for the new Irish Green party leader. Small stakes and odds but every little helps!
Come on. After the ramping here and elsewhere - if the Tories fail to come close it will be a set back. Would not be surprised if the LibDems stole it and taught everyone a lesson.
116 - in media terms yet, but by-elections also have an impact on activist morale, journalists’ perception etc.
If the Tories aren’t percieved to have done well it will be damaging to Cameron regardless of how long it is in the headlines.
142. A ramping post complaining about ramping - Jeez..
Re 139, John Wheatley, where is the evidence that postal voting has increased turnout?
The reasons why turnout is dropping has got a lot more to do with the way politics is played than anything else.
20 Am I missing something? Why does Jack W keep going of about “rik’s Horse”?
Does Jack W has a goat?
The CCHQ pigeon made it …. Hooray !!!!!
Update within the hour !!
Jack W, how is your goat?
Jack, can we have an update about your goat?
133 - we shouldn’t take Boris Berezovsky too seriously. He is not very popular even with the opposition in Russia. In particular, Garry Kasparov and he do not see eye to eye.
An American journalist called Paul Klebnikov portrayed Berezovsky as a mafia boss who had his rivals murdered. He then wrote a book about it. And Klebnikov was murdered 3 years ago. I wouldn’t get too close to Boris.
I don’t understand why the media, especially the BBC, is in the thrall Berezovsky, who, with his mates, seems to be setting the agenda, and government policy now. I guess he’s afraid he may be sent back to Russia.
A Brazilian judge issued an arrest warrant for Berezovsky this last week for money laundering charges. Berezovsky has dismissed this as a Kremlin plot. Today’s BBC news story is just him spinning and getting people to feel sorry for him.
146.No … but I just got a pigeon.
Is no-one interested in my goat ?
You dont answer.
From your silence, can we imply you have something to hide?
It could be argued that postal voting simply encourages the parties to focus even more on getting their supporters out and less on actually persuading or listening to anybody.
That is certainly how it happens in practice now.
117 Stonch are you being deliberately obtuse?
Before you tempt me into a Sean T type slam, let me just restate for the millionth time - to be third with nothing in it is to be expected, BUT, as I have said over and over, I think we have run an outstanding campaign and I think we will do much better than expected and predicted on this blog with the result Lab and Tory a strong second.
There’s no doubt at all that such a result would be much better than expected, better than predicted on PB and much better than the bookies are saying! I am an optimist however and it is what I predict.
152. Perhaps - but there is something fishy about Jack W.
No smoke without fire.
151. Just dont turn him into Pigeon Pie before u get some info Jack!
121 - now 11/8, great spot, pity I missed it…
135. There were about 4,700 postal votes sent out in Ealing Southall, so about 3,000 will have been returned.
132. As of the Electoral Administration Act 2006, section 66(2A), it is now illegal for anyone who has been at the opening of postal votes to communicate any opinion about the likely result of the election based on anything observed at those proceedings. (Before 2006, it was only illegal to ascertain the voting behaviour of any specific or identifiable voter). I myself have not seen any postal votes being opened or checked anyway.
159 - But John, 2999 of those PVs could have been yours! What a betting opportunity you could have missed….
John Wheatley, as it happens, the fact that 1% of the votes in total may be fraudulent does concern me more than the overall level of turnout. After all, the fraudulent votes are likely to be concentrated in poor, inner urban, constituencies with large immigrant populations, and could constitute 10-20% of the votes cast there, making a mockery of the result.
In any event, there is no evidence that making postal voting easier has boosted turnout.
159 - while it’s true that the those who have seen the postal votes are not allowed to communicate details, there’s very little to stop them having a bet.
Just looking for reasons for the Tory price drifting - although it’s probably down to Roger putting a bet (and a curse) on.
159 That is true but there is nothing to stop someone saying they saw the party agents leaving the building after the opening of postal votes and Part A’s agent was smiling and Party B’s agent looked glum .
155 - no prospect of a seanT slam. You are completely misrepresenting what you’ve been saying, aren’t you? You have never said you are expecting third or that third would be OK, you were consistently stating here - on a political BETTING site - that the Tories would come a close second or win. As I said, just stop digging.
161 They are also more likely to be concentrated in places where they will affect the result at either a ward or constituency level.
162. SB what price was it when Roger put his bet on?
140 - ah shurrup! I’ll post what I like and criticise who I like! Sanctimonious get!
166 He had £ 2 at 5.1 and £ 48 at I think 4.1 .
166 - can’t remember. I think he put £2 at 5 and the other £48 on at 4.2.
They’re now at 8.
I wonder if Rik laid back his stake.
O/T - Dont know if it has been mentioned but Caroline Lucas MEP has been selected as the Green Party candidate for Brighton Pavilion.
Stonch you a$$. I, and Rik W, provided the one solid and guaranteed betting tip on this site based on absolutely solid information, which none of these other apparently “connected” posters had, that the following am there would be mass Tory defections. Anybody listening to me and him then could have made some real money.
There’s what is expected and what is OK - and then there is what *I* expect and what would be very good, and that’s Tories second. And unlike the time I did give a betting tip, I’m making it quite clear that this prediction is based on nothing at all, just my own experience of the campaign. As far as I know, nobody around the campaign has any solid knowledge of anything at this point.
I think somebody must have spat in your barrel or something.
Stonch - Yawn….
Of course you can post what you like - we’re all here as guests of Mike.
All I am trying subtley point out is that I’m probably not the only person on here who is beginning to add you to the list of “skip over” posters. And that it is a bit rich when in that category, for you to criticise others for “droning on”.
170. I can’t see replacing Dr Taylor with Caroline Lucas going down well among voters in Brighton. Taylor built up an impressive personal vote there and its not going to transfer over well.
170. A credible candidate, so good news for David Bull as she’s bound to eat into Labour’s vote
166 - I think he bet at 4s, just as/before the price turned. I took it as a sign that my decision to lay my previous bet on Lit at 7s was correct, as Roger’s anti-Midas touch was sure to send the price lower!
171 - anyone could look back on these threads and see how you’ve changed your tune, indeed someone did yesterday and posted a quote where you said the tories would come a close second or win. Now you’re saying it could be third.
172 - yawn to you too, never noticed anything interesting you’ve said, to be honest. And if you are skipping my posts, drafting two replies to me is strange.
If winding up someone who has made a fool of herself is a crime - then I am guilty. Lock me up at Iain Dale’s boring blog as a punishment.
171 - oh by the way, as you threw in personal insults, can i ask, are you STILL blobbing?
I think it’s got to be “Stench” from now on.
171 Test “I, and Rik W, provided the one solid and guaranteed betting tip on this site based on absolutely solid information”
Yep - that’s true. Although it was all rather clandestine at the time - for obvious reasons.
139 if the cake is bigger but built on giving credit to poor risks then the cake is a fantasy and you would have been better with a smaller cake that was genuinely profitable.
Roll on Friday, when this site won’t have to suffer the interminable rampings brought by these by-elections again. Well, until the next MP shuffles off this mortal coil…
173 - I think I would disagree on that but I’m not local to there so I dont know for sure either way (though I’d hazard a guess that the Greens polled better in the 2004 Euro election in the constituency than in the 2005 GE - but that’s just a guess and they are different voting systems and different elections of course). The result of the selection was fairly tight though indicating a fair amount of loyalty to Keith Taylor among local members.
182. Wasn’t Keith Taylor high on the South East Euro list in 2004 for the Green Party though?
I’m sure Andrea could tell us…..
Sean F - there can be no meeting of the minds then, because the 15% deficit undermines the legitimacy across the whole country. It is part of the “me, me, me” society rather than feeling part of something bigger. It is the older voters who vote because they have a sense of duty etc
Turnout is one direct measure of the irrelevance of politics, the point at which it ceases to be important to the bulk of the population. 1% fraud says you have a few bad eggs.
A business analogy. If I have fraud in the business at 1% I have a problem. If I have lost 15% market share then I’m in a pile of pooh.
147 Jack W, your hour is nearly up.
180 - and the passport to irrelevance and takeover.
185. He’s busy on betfair
185 Yes Jack, The Disciplinary Committee doesn’t take kindly to poor timekeeping.
183 - 4th I think.
Jack’s WELL over his hour….
183. “I’m sure Andrea could tell us…”
He was number 4 behind Lucas, Mike Woodin and Mariam Kennett
187. Who got your goat?
Carrier pigeon caught up in postal strike?
tories out to 7.6, libs 3.65, lab 1.52
Thank you - BOTH of you
I wonder if the Green Euro campaign in Brighton emphasised Taylors presense on the list or not. Will be interesting to see how it plays out there at the next GE.
libs a bargain at 3.65 I’d snap it up!
80 - Stonch - nonsense. I only make a definite prediction when I have some local knowledge. Read Vote 2007 to see my predictions for Reading’s local elections, which were pretty much spot on compared to those of Mark Senior. My predictions for Sutton’s local in 2006 were also spot on in terms of seats and VERY close as to where the gains were. So I reject your silly assertion. What I DO do is report what I see. What i have seen in Ealing Southall is the best organised by-election campaign I have ever known; the most Conservative posters up in a safe Labour seat;and the least Lib Dem posters in any campaign where they start second. I have helped out in almost every Parliamentary by-election in England and Wales since 1995. So I do have some basis for comparison. FWIW I would broadly agree with Test’s assessment at 73 but would probably be slightly more positive about our chances!
195 - I doubt it, as sitting MEP and top of the list, Caroline Lucas would have been the main candidate promoted throughout the region - including Brighton I would have thought.
196 Really, Polska?! When you can get 4.5 with William Hill?
186 Doesn’t your recipe lead to bankruptcy that comes as a surprise, amid astonishment that it could all happen with such an enormous cake and wondering how it all fell apart when you were so ’successful’.
199. ssshhhhhh!
197. Thats rather different to the message you were putting out last week Rik. Then the message was that the LibDems were dead and buried and Tony Lit was a handful of votes away from becoming the next MP. No good trying to re-write history now things are not looking too good.
199 You’re not trying to put people away, are you Polska?
Wouldn’t be a much more serious offence than that on a betting site.
Well, a non-ramping comment: my impression from talking to lots of people is that test is correct and the Tories are ahead of the LDs. The Betfair odds making the LDs second favourite look wrong to me, and the controversy around Mr Lit has both pushed some people back to Labour and made others identify him as the main challenger. I won’t speculate on who is going to win - everyone I’ve talked to from all three parties says it’s completely unclear. By contrast, I think the Sedgfield result will be a bog-standard by-election - lowish poll, government hold on reduced majority.
Is the goat for opening its belly and seeing the outcome of the by-elections from its guts? The punters are prepared to do just anything for few quids…
202. If you provided a link this sort of post would carry far more weight.
(Cautionary note: post 204 is based almost entirely on second-hand impressions - I’ve not been back in Ealing myself)
Rik - test [73] didn’t say what was likely to happen. Just offered 4 possible results - Thrilled, pleased, neutral or sad.
Which of these are you expecting to be!!
204 If Labour is spinning that the Tories are second……
Rik emerges when my back has turned - oh it’s ok someone else slapped him down.
“I have helped out in almost every Parliamentary by-election in England and Wales since 1995.”
No wonder the Tories lost them all
Re 204, Nick Palmer, that is roughly how I see it right now.
I would laugh a lot if we had a three way tie after X recounts and then had to draw straws!
204. Ah, horlicks! come on you rubbish LD’s this is a by-election what else do you exist for?
Right I want to buy a bicycle in the next 90 minutes. I am at Bank station. Where do I go?
Do you know what Tom Watsons bit of info was Nick? and if so was it really so earth shattering?
213. Cross London Bridge and go to Evans cycles by London Bridge or to a bike shop a bit further down tooley street which is better
Re 213, Stonch, what sort of bike do you ride?
Ref 204 “a non-ramping comment” ??
Nick, are the people you spoke to all Labour ?
204 - is the impression (again) based on telephone-canvassing?
202 - with respect - “Cobblers”!! Why is that you and some others like to misrepresent what was said. Show me a post where I said that!
What I have said is that the Lib Dems have failed to get posters up in areas where I would expect the place to be plastered with orange. On EVERY occasion I have been in ES I have seen more Conservative posters than Lib Dem in residential streets. The only place I have seen lots of LD posters is in Southall in shop windows, usually alongside one for another party.
Tony Lit and the team have fought a superb campaign and I am expecting an excellent result tomorrow. That could be a close second or even a win. I dont know - just as no-one else knows.
As I said earlier I report what I see and know. And as a sign of my faith in my own view I have today placed some more money on Betfair on a Conservative win. The odds were very tempting!!
As others have said - tomorrow we will know. So why dont we all wait and see what happens. I know what I expect and I know what I hope for. I would be very interested to know which posters on here have actually been to Ealing Southall or Sedgefield. Perhaps we can then judge the likely credibility of their views!
Care to declare Stonch?
213 - Try this place in Spitalifields - used to be good but I left the Great Wen over five years ago so no idea what the shop is like now.
Cheers Jimbo
Benedict - I haven’t had a bike for a few years. Always used to ride a mountain bike without too many bells and whistles, I think the last new bike I bought was a Raleigh Pioneer.
It was silver and was stolen while I was officiating at an election count.
From 10 days ago -
“227 - Test you are right. I am not a betting man but I am going to place a small wager on Tony Lit winning Ealing Southall. My time spent there last week and other news I am hearing suggests we have a very good chance of winning the seat!
by Rik W July 8th, 2007 at 10:15 pm”
In fact PtP if Hills hadn’t been laying 7/2 the LDs today then its likely the LDs would now be shorter on Betfair, as I’m sure a few people have been backing them with Hills and then seeking to lay off on Betfair.
I haven’t been able to bet with Hills online or by phone today. They are having problems with accepting switch card deposits reportedly. Anyone else had this problem today?
Right, Cycle Surgery at Spitalfields closed in 16 mins so they lose my business the fools. Evans it is. Laters pals! Cheers
Re 221, Stoch if it is for road use, have you thought of a racer? They are soooo much fatser.
216/221. One thats nicked……
re 222, Icarus I think the emphasis is “in with a chance” not a definate sure fire bet, but a chance.
223 StJohn “I’m sure a few people have been backing them with Hills and then seeking to lay off on Betfair.”
Yup. Now I wonder who might have been doing that sort of thing?
Had a mighty row with Hills this morning who wouldn’t accept my change of card without written notification from the bank. Not had your problem though - yet.
222. Icarus that wasn’t fair, I’d just started to search for that when you posted
LDs now 4s on betfair, Cons 4.6 on some movement..
……..and can carry a crate of Stonch’s exclusive brewing produce.
228. PtP. Just spoken to Hills and apparently its just HSBC bank that they are unable to accept transactions from today.
230. Jamie. I suspect the price movements are in response to Nick Palmer’s post at 204.
John Looney has a chance - not much of one, but a chance!
208 - Icarus - since you ask a reasonable question I will give you a reasonable answer. My heart very much hopes for a Conservative win but years of disappointments at Parliamentary by-election results and bitter experience suggest that Test is right that a strong second place is the most likely outcome. That in itself would be a good result for us and I am sure Newsnight is already preparing the bar charts of previous poor Conservative by-election vote share changes to compare against!
I am pretty sure that the Lib Dems will come in third place as they seem to have failed to get much traction in this campaign and Respect and the Greens will probably eat into their support base.
However, everything I have seen suggests that the ES by-election is wide open and almost every combination of result is at least possible.
210 - Stonch you really should go and lie down and perhaps consider rejoining the human race!
Latest from Chris Rennard:
“As the campaigns move to the crucial closing stages, it is clear that the Conservatives are in trouble and Labour are in danger.
We have made a very big effort, so thank you to everyone who has already been, sent a donation or done telephoning.
Finishing strongly in Sedgefield
In Sedgefield, we are becoming stronger challengers every day. Greg and his team have been fighting a fantastic campaign. We need as much help as possible today - and of course from very early tomorrow. It is really worth helping if you can get there.
In Ealing Southall, the Tory campaign has backfired spectacularly. They have been hurt by the revelation that the Conservative candidate helped raise funds for Labour just before they appointed hm.
We have a very real chance of electing Nigel Bakhai tomorrow if enough Liberal Democrat supporters turn up to help our campaign during today and of course from VERY early tomorrow.
I have been speaking to Willie Rennie and Sarah Teather this morning and they both agree that this has the feeling of eve of poll in their by-election campaigns !
Will there be a recount in Ealing Southall?
The result really is on a knife-edge.”
email sent 14.18 today.
222 - and I dont change my view! Saying “we have a very good chance” is hardly a statement of certainty. I still think we do have a very good chance but I also accept the point that a strong second would be a good result.
Another interesting fact is that Lib Dems like Icarus are scrabbling around trying to make claims about the Conservative chances of winning when usually by now they would have a by-election pretty much sown up and be odds on favourites!
Oh how the mighty are fallen
236 - “usually by now they would have a by-election pretty much sown up and be odds on favourites!”
Like at Dunfermline, y’mean?
230 - and I managed to get some further small bets on when betfair had us on 8 and 7.8 today!
Ok kiddywinks the news you’ve all been waiting for from Tory pigeon post, other feathered brethren at party HQs, various media outlets, the original horses mouth of Rik W’s nag and the tea lady at GCHQ.
Usual health and wealth warnings apply …. especially returning birdies to their political lofts !!
SEDGEFIELD :
There’s little doubt that this by-election has suffered from having a London by-election on the same day and thus the London based media spotlight has shone far more brightly on a seemingly more interesting contest. Although it is interesting to note that the Sedgefield Betfair market has seen significantly more activity than Ealing albeit both at a pretty low level.
By general consensus Labour’s Phil Wilson is heading for a win in this safe Labour seat. He has run a safe, predictable and some have said dull campaign. Little has been left to chance and the opposition parties have gained little workable traction to mount a vigorious effort, the more so in a short three week campaign.
The Lib Dems have run their usual by-election effort at the seat - lock, socks and sandals. However this effort seems destined to be rewarded not with a win but with a good second place, pushing the Tories into third. By general consent the Lib Dems have run the most inspiring campaign in what must be admitted has been a by-election that has failed to catch the imagination of the electorate. The Lib Dem candidate Gregg Stone seems destined for better things.
The contrast with the efforts of the Tories in Ealing Southall and “up north” is a sight to behold. It would appear that the newly found Conservative progress at by-electioneering doesn’t extend to two in one day, especially if the second seat is north of Watford. Strange as the Tories were second in the seat at the 05 GE. Pride alone would have suggested that Conservatives would have wanted to resist the Lib Dems. However this is not to suggest that Tory candidate, Graham Robb, lacks vigour. Indeed he personally has fought a doughty campaign. Sadly the support effort from CCHQ has been desperate and he can feel mightily let down.
The only other candidate of note has been the BNP’s Andrew Spence who has been making plenty of noise and fury and may surprise with a distant but solid fourth place.
Turnout may be another issue in an uninspired Sedgefield and could help the Lib Dems push closer.
Jack W’s Pigeon Prediction. Labour Win. LibDems second but no cigar.
………………….
EALING SOUTHALL :
The voters of Ealing Southall and neighbouring woodlands can be thankful that PM Brown decided to hold this by-election so quickly and not to delay until the autumn. Surely never have so many forests of leaflets been despatched to the mostly bored and bewildered denizens of this part of London, that is truly a melting pot of multicultural Britain.
There is some nervousness in the Labour camp that having opted for a short campaign that they have been beaten out of the traps firstly by an energized Conservative effort and more recently by the sheer grinding omnipresence of the Renard machine. The Labour cause has not been especially helped by the adoption of a candidate, in Virendra Sharma, who makes a speak your weight machine appear like an accomplished after dinner speaker.
However after a slow start Labour has got its one speed fits all by-election train up and running and certainly has pulled no punches as it attempts to avoid hitting the buffers. Canvass returns both personal and telephone have been “solid, encouraging and better” as the campaigned rolled. Labour HQ are delighted that neither the Lib Dems nor the Conservatives have managed to push the other aside and become the main and highly visible challenger. Nevertheless there is some nervousness that the voters are intent on protest. Protesting not at any issue in particular, as no one single issue has dominated, but that it’s a by-election and that’s what the Britsh do !!
If ever a shrink wanted to see a cross section of the hopeful, the deluded, the optimistic, the energized and the frantic in a political campaign they had to look no further than the Conservative campaign in Ealing. By almost equal measure, every day the Tories have felt they were winning, falling behind the Lib Dems and edging second place ….. and often within the same five minutes.
The Conservatives have lacked for nothing in their effort to have Tony Lit elected and certainly initially they had the momentum. And yet as polling day has drawn closer there appears to be a realization in the Tory camp that victory is slipping from their reach despite a full and enthusiastic effort. Some still hope for a surprise win yet the consensus in CCHQ is that Labour is too entrenched, the Lib Dems too stuborn and that Lit is a little too “Blair camera friendly” to have pulled off what would have been a remarkable win.
To say there is frustration in the Lib Dem camp is to say that the Pope is a religious type of guy !!! it was essential for the Lib Dems that they established themselves quickly as the only alternative to Labour. They have failed to do so, as for once the Tories failed to play dead at a by-election. Additionally there has been much gnashing of teeth at the local profile of Tony Lit - an asset that Rennard would have died for. The Lib Dems own candidate, Nigel Bakhai, has performed well enough but like much of the Lib Dem performance he has failed to catch the mood or tempo required of the usual Lib Dem by-election victories.
There remains a confidence in many of the Lib Dem volunteers that their “under the radar” Dunfermline look-a-like campaign will win the day. However those at the heart of the campaign appear resigned to a “near miss at best”.
Jack W’s Pigeon Prediction : Labour Hold. Runner Up - Who knows !!
Isaby has intelligence from the front line - make of it what you will…
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/politics/littleandlarge/july/firstnewsfromealing.htm
Jack look out for Mr Jasdev Rai a Sikh independent at E & S he could take enough votes from the less than inspiring Labour candidate in Southall to make it a bit more interesting than you suggest.
You do have spies in The Sikh community don’t you?
240, 239. Looks like the Lib Dems have let me down this time! looks like more overtime this month..
240 Based on John Loony’s posting earlier about the law concerning reporting counts of postal ballots, shouldn’t Mr Isaby be getting a call from the Metropolitan Police ?
A pedant writes: You can sow seeds but things are sewn up.
Correction: Isaby says “…..a source inside the Tory campaign reports ….”
Spin, spin, spin - I have no hard information all I am reading is the mood at one party HQ.
214, 217, 218 etc: I never say anything here that I don’t believe, though I refrain from commenting if I think it could be misused - that’s why I’ve not previously agreed with the Tory posters who claimed they were second (at this point I don’t see anything I say turning up in a leaflet!). Conversely you can take it that I’m not spinning - what would be the point if it’d be proved wrong tomorrow? Virtually nobody here has a vote.
The Labour people I talked to had all been heavily involved with doorstep canvassing (some of them every day for weeks), which is what most of the Labour campaign has been about (I did Sedgfield the other day because there weren’t any Ealing lists to do). I’ve also talked with Tories, who are sure they’ll do well but unsure that they’ll win. I’ve not talked with LibDems this time, and as noted above I’m not especially confident of any of it as I’ve no direct impressions. But personally if I was betting I would bet against an LD win in either place.
246. what would be the point if it’d be proved wrong tomorrow?
Ditto for Lord Rennard one would presume and his track record on predicting by election outcomes is at least as good as Nick’s, if not better. I think the bottomline is that no one for sure knows what is happening for all the reasons that have filled days of postings. Roll on the count.
239. Amazing.
“Jack W’s Pigeon Prediction : Labour Hold. Runner Up - Who knows !!”
Wow. A scoop.
Still very quiet on Betfair but, with patience, it has not been difficult to establish an all green position, particularly by repeatedly backing and laying the Tories whose price has been all over the place.
The Tories now 12.5-1 to lay on Betfair. Does someone know something we don’t?
250/251 PtP. Almost hardly worth the effort as the amounts are so small …… although in bird seed terms that’d be an awful lot of trill for a small thrill !!
252 Agreed Jack, the real money was to be made, IMO, when Labour briefly nudged above 1.8 - my net position is slightly better than evens on them and I think I’ll stick with that.
Contrary to all previous claims I’m not a pisshead, I am not getting lashed on the Vanilla Mild I brewed a while ago and slagged off comprehensively on my own blog.
Well frankly if those figures for the postal votes are right I think it looks good for the Tories, I would have thought they’d be miles behind on those. Although they’ve had some defections which, people assume, would bring “block votes”, in reality Labour are the kinds of dodgy postal votes, are they not?
246 From memory Nick Palmer was very confident of a Labour hold in Dunfermline. I have found ES as hard to fathom as any by election where I have helped. Frankly I would not be surprised which of the big three won. I do feel the Tory campiagn has run out of gas a bit over the past couple of days but we will see
As it won’t affect anything at this stage:
I wasn’t terribly hopeful at the start of this one, although the 2005 numbers screamed ‘LD Gain’, because of the dismal local election results in Ealing last year and the Tories effective start from the blocks. We’ve lacked a killer issue too, which doesn’t help.
After knocking a few zillion doors, I’m pleasantly surprised how good the vibe is in the ‘fringe’ parts of the constituency that actually comprise the bulk of the electorate - both in South and West Ealing and in Greenford. Southall itself is a impossible to read, but then it’s rather exceptional even in terms of this constituency.
My real worry is we don’t have enough canvass data given the short campaign to run a really effective polling day operation, and the Tories have refused to roll over and die. My hunch is a near but clear miss on our part. The Tories would do better to select candidates who really are Tories in the future and who won’t make a mess on the carpet. But the basic media-whorishness of the Cameron project will always draw them to celeb type candidates where they are available. Oh, and the Lit family are a divisive bunch within West London’s Indian community. Some people swear by them, some swear about them; the Tories are messing around in some pretty dangerous waters across West London at the moment with ethnic politics; it all reminds me a bit of kids jumping around a minefield on pogosticks. It didn’t entirely blow up in their face this time, but it could all go pretty pear shaped somewhere in these parts in the next few years. Hillingdon or North Westminster would be my top bets for a first class Tory fugazi if they don’t rein themselves in.