politicalbetting.com

In the absence of any polls, particularly from the Lib Dem unfriendly YouGov, there’s been a change in the favourite on Betfair’s general election outcome market. The chart shows the betting odds converted into implied probabilities. The current favoured outcome, at 1.48/1 is a hung parliament with a Labour majority at 3/2. A Tory overall majority is out at nearly 4/1. I’ve just heard that Ipsos-Mori, in addition to their Sun poll a fortnight ago, will be doing their standard…

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What do we think of the latest move? The Tory health cuts saga has taken a new turn with the party retracting the apology it found itself having to issue when inaccuracies were found on its list of hospitals at risk. The problem with getting specific, as they did yesterday, is that you can pick off each component and find somebody who will say that a particular service is not under threat. So rather than arguing about the big picture…

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Introducing the special area on Facebook for PBC users Last night a PBC regular contacted me to ask if I’d seen what was on the Facebook website about Politicalbetting. I said I hadn’t but when I checked out the social networking site I was amazed to discover that somebody had established what’s called “The Politicalbetting.com Appreciation Society“. Apparently it’s been going for a few weeks and a couple of dozen people have signed up. What’s really interesting is that the…

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You’ll have to wait for our multi Gordon pictures With all the talk of a general election everybody it seems, is waiting for the next polls. Sadly I think we are going to have to hold on for at least a few more days. Suggestions that there could be a poll overnight were not correct. I had thought that fieldwork for the Guardian’s August ICM poll was following its normal pattern with the survey taking place over the weekend for…

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