Five Gordons from YouGov
September 16th, 2007
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Sunday Times poll gives Lab 39, Con 34, LD 15
There’s a YouGov poll in the Sunday Times today showing Labour with a 5-point lead over the Conservatives. Brown leads Cameron and Campbell 39/17/4 on the “most impressive” leader question, while the good job/bad job splits are 62/22 for Gordon, 35/50 for Dave, and 24/45 for Ming - an impressive +40 for the Prime Minister - how long will such scores last?
If there are another couple of polls giving Labour a lead of 5-6 points, might this rekindle a glimmer of hope in Downing Street that an autumn election might still be called? I would have thought though that the Northern Rock crisis and general economic uneasiness would probably rule it out, although others may think differently.
There’s more bad news for the Lib Dem leader with the news that supporters of the party believe overwhelmingly, by 63% to 5%, that a change to a younger leader would help the Lib Dems. More analysis of the Sunday Times poll on Anthony Wells’ site here. Despite the disappointing poll news, Ming insists to the Observer that he will lead his party into the next election and beyond, and Andrew Rawnsley explains why the Lib Dems won’t be ditching their embattled leader.
Elsewhere, Alan Greenspan not only attacks Bush’s economic competence but declares that the prime motive in the Iraq war was oil, while there’s also the news that al-Qaeda in Iraq have offered a reward for the murder of a Swedish cartoonist - are we in for a repeat of the Danish cartoon row or indeed worse?
New Democracy look set to win - by law there were no polls published in the last two weeks but my “gut feel” is that ND may win by 2-3% of the popular vote, and the ND’s Karamanlis is a prohibitive 1.18 on Betfair (2/11) to be the next PM while PASOK’s Papandreou is available at 8.2 (just over 7/1). The handicap market may offer more value, where I have backed ND (-1.75%) to win, currently trading at 1.63. There seems to be the possibility of a hung parliament due to the disenchantment with the big two parties, even allowing for the fact that the winning party will get a 40-seat bonus in this election held under PR.
I’m hoping to run an Election Night Special on pb as the results come in. There will probably be exit polls at 5pm, and because Greece counts at polling stations and reports upwards (unlike the UK & Ireland but like most of Europe and the Americas), it should not be too long a night. My understanding is that by 8.30pm UK time a projection of the final result should be available. The excellent official results site from the Interior Ministry (in English!) is here and the Greek News Agenda newsletter is here.
Guest Editor’s Note:
As you all know, Mike will be back in charge of the site tomorrow, but I hope I’ve managed to keep pb ticking over satisfactorily in his absence. I know that one or two people have expressed their dissatisfaction with my efforts, but I think that’s part of the price to be paid for being “visible”, and I’d like to thank those who have been vocal in their support over the last two weeks. Apart from one thread which went seriously off the rails, with Ukpaul fighting a valiant rearguard action, and a couple of personal spats, the site seems to have been reasonably well behaved, which is much appreciated, and there were some excellent and very informative posts (including PtP’s very profitable Doncaster tips!).
A few thanks:
A final plug for the Election Game - click on the logo below for more information - the next game, with Greece currently “in-play”, will be for Switzerland/Argentina in October, which probably falls into the “arthouse” category, followed by Australia which is definitely a “blockbuster”. Alternately click below if you just want to email me.
This is a great website - and despite the occasional niggle between posters - one that we should be proud of and is a key part of the political scene.
Cheers & all the best, and “Epharisto” as they say in Greece - for those of you following the election I’ll be around later today with the results special.
Paul Maggs “Double Carpet”
Guest Editor
Mike Smithson returns tomorrow
Paul Maggs runs The Election Game - click on the logo to email for more information.
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Paul,
Can I record my gratitude for all you have done in the past two and a bit weeks? You’ve done a fantastic job and there’ve been more than a third of a million page downloads during your period in charge.
You also bring to the site a love of elections and the democratic process everywhere. We’ll all be following Greece tonight. Well done.
Will MC get a visit from the Lib Dem equivalent of the men in grey suits? I suggest it is beginning to appear inevitable.
Also I could not understand his comment that “this would be the last Lib Dem conference before the next General Election”. What does he know? The next election could be October 08, or during 09 or 10.
Yes - well done Paul. Does this mean we have to have that oldie, Mike, back?
As for other oldies I see David Owen might be re-joining Labour. What a joke. No Labour person should have any truck with that b*stard who seems to have spent his entire life ruining the political parties he has been associated with. Look at the damage he did to Labour in the early 80s and then he went on to undermine the Lib Dems a few years later.
This guy is pure poison. Gordon should keep well away.
After his Thatcher stunt I’m starting to have second thoughts about him.
2 - “Will MC get a visit from the Lib Dem equivalent of the men in grey suits?”
Perhaps he will be hearing “The Sound of Sandals….”?
Excellent effort by the way, Paul. I would have thought your position is secure into the next election and beyond!
Well done Paul, it can’t be easy!!
The, ‘Thatcher visit’ rumbles on, the Mail on Sunday seems to give it the thumbs up, Lord Bell certainly does: who’d have thought it!!
sorry Mail here
http://tinyurl.com/35cu66
URGENT SELL LABOUR, SELL LABOUR
Lord Owen is thinking of rejoining the Labour Party.
The Northern Rock crisis is obviously worrying the government, as a smear campaign now appears to be underway - targeting Mervyn King, the head of the independent central bank that Labour normally boast about as being one of their great achievements.
A Whitehall source said: “The governor has handled this badly. He urgently needs to reassure savers.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;jsessionid=SYHECNSUWMP2ZQFIQMGCFGGAVCBQUIV0?xml=/money/2007/09/16/cnrock116.xml
8
to make a url tiny go to tiny url http://www.tinyurl.com and follow the instructions..
Great job, Paul - thanks very much!
We can all spin about whether the lead is more or less than we expected (for what it’s worth, it’s what I predicted on Friday, though higher than what I’d said before). I don’t personally feel it’s enough to make it wise to call an election now.
An interesting point made by someone on Anthony Wells’ page is that the bounce seems to have settled at about this level (which on current showing means more like 2% for polls that adjust for turnout), predicting that it would probably stay that way with oscillations through and beyond the conference season. I think he might be right if we look a few months ahead, but I’d expect some sawings during the conferences. DC is generally good at set-piece speeches so I’d have thought the media narrative for him will be “Cameron fights back”. Labour’s conference will have a squabble on party rules (how to handle emergency resolutions for current controversies) but should otherwise be harmonious. Others can advise better on the LibDems.
For what it’s worth, my CLP is finding that the tickle of new and returning members is now speeding up (from 2-3 a month to a couple per week - we’re thinking of having a waiting list
). I don’t know if others have hsd the same experience, but people almost *never* join because I ask them to, they just turn up under their own steam when they feel like it.
Paul, you have done a terrific job. Many thanks.
Poll: least relevant ever. Not weighted *properly, Mark S - firm has overstated Lab by 5 points vs the industry recently, and finally, done before NR crisis.let us all see what happens on the High St next week.
Despite gom’s sterling efforts to find spots of light for Lab in the Sundays, the front pages are horrible on the economy. Gordon is attacked by DC in the Telegraph. Brown’s dreadful record as. the bubble Chancellor is coming home to roost.
Adding my thanks to Paul for running the shop so efficiently in Mike’s absence and posting a number of interesting and slightly off the normal topic threads .
8. Icarus. Do you think Rik W will follow Lord Owen and join up with him again ??
……………………
Fully endorse Mike’s comments @ 1. Very well done Paul.
I must say I rather prefered Paul’s more relaxed later starts for the morning thread. More civilised for the 104 year olds amomg us !! ….. and the thought earlier this morming of our Mike creeping round Smithson Towers at 3am grasping his half full chamber pot in one hand and candle stick in the other and chuntering about “Five Gordon’s” is a little spooky !!
11
Test you seem to be missing the point, (perhaps in denial) it doesn’t matter how bad things seem to get, there is no sign the voters are turning to the Cameron Conservatives for salvation.
How’s Tony Lit by the way, don’t seem to hear so much of him these days.
8. …and further to that quote, up pops a pliant Labour MP to make an idiotic comment in the same vein…
“I’m wondering where it leaves Mervyn King in terms of credibility”
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article2461206.ece
If you let Ken back, then I guess you have to let Owen back. It does stick in my craw though.
The existence of the SDP/Alliance - an apparently (but incorrectly assumed to be) viable third option - kept Thatcher in power, and slowed down the process of the Labour Party modernising.
Far from “saving the Labour party” as some of them now claim, their existence gave strength to the far left particularly 1981-1987
Through out the 80’s, as now, there was a broad “left / liberal” majority in this country - as to be frank there is not that much between Labour and LD’s - commanding well over 50% of the vote. The SDP in effect kept a minority conservative regime in power, by dividing that vote
PS Thanks to Paul for being a good school prefect and minding the playground until teacher gets back
UKpauls’s heroic defence alluded to in Paul’s piece deserved the unofficial “Snowflake5 of the month” award for rapid fire demolition of assaults from all directions
16
Totally disagree, it was the shock of the split that made people in the Labour Party realise the game was up. The,’Gang of Four’ did a great service to the Labour Party by forcing them to realise, being ‘Labour’ wasn’t enough, you had to do make your party palatable to the voters. The SDP did not keep the Tories in power, it was an incompetent, incoherent, Labour Party that did that.
The Tories will have to go through a similar experience, before they will return to government. There is no way, that a party can contain two totally diametrically opposed points of view, such as Redwood and Goldsmith, something will have to give.
The Times today reports “Darling plans big rises in road tax in a win for the Treasury coffers as well as the environment”.
Could the Labour supporters - who said that the Goldsmith report’s proposals in this regard were so disastrous, - tell us why this tax rise from Labour is so brilliant and appropriate, please?
13. A scary image to inflict on us at this time of the day, Jack! I entirely agree with the general endorsement of Paul’s editorship, which has maintained the standard throughout (don’t worry about the odd adverse comment from usually unnamed irregular posters - it’s not as if Mike doesn’t get them from time to time as well).
Anyway, on topic, +5 is pretty good for Gordon and Labour, although obviously off the peak. YouGov does seem to be a bit more reactive than other polls to changes in moods, producing larger leads for either party at a moment of relative popularity.
I’m a little surprised that “Ming insists to the Observer that he will lead his party into the next election and beyond”. And beyond? That’s surely stretching credibility. I can well understand Lib Dems not wanting to dump a second leader this parliament, especially when you look at what happened to the four contenders in the last election. Ming was supposed to be the safe choice! But to imply that he’ll go on some way after the next general election … sounds a bit like Margaret Thatcher’s “on and on” moment - and in a similar degree of touch with political reality.
Cameron needs a good conference, which he can best achieve by going on the offensive. There’s plenty of things to have a go at the government for and bashing Brown will not only always raise a cheer from the party faithful but also make a positive difference with the electorate at large. Rather ironically, having been previously criticised for having no policies, he’s now in a position of having too many. Fortunately, that means he can afford to drop a few.
18 Grumpy - the deffection of many activists and potential future activists handed the Party to the Far Left at a local level. It made the electoral arithmetic inside the Party lobsided to the Far Left, who used it to command the agenda.
Kinnock’s position was ridiculously precarious from 1983 - 1988, because he could not control the National Executive. It completely slowed down the pace of change.
I think the arguement that it was the SDP “wot saved the Labour Party” is needed by some who deserted rather than stay and fight - and want to assuage their sense of guilt
14 hope Tony stands again at the GE, that would show them!
Coldstone as I said, YG has been massively overstatin Lab vs everyone else. Also, do you really think a poll that does not account for a run on a bank matters?
Things are looking shaky out there, I am thankful we have a weekend now so bankers can think calmly.
11. Test. LOL! I’ve always had an admiration for how you could find light for the Tories in the pitch black but using an article in the TELEGRAPH written by CAMERON to show that the wheels are coming off Labour is just genius!
14 I hear through the grapevine there is trouble brewing amongst Ealing Conservatives between the ex Labour defecting councillors and shall we say the old guard .
24 Mark. Why do I get the impression this morning that Mark is smiling over his bacardi and corn flakes !!
Roger fair enough by my point is:
1 all the Sundays predict gloom & trouble for Lab and 2 Cameron is going on the attack and not letting Gordon escape responsibility.
In short that “Not flash, just Gordon”, although a brilliant line was badly timed. “Crash Gordon”.
25 Weetabix this morning lol followed by toasted bacon sandwich sadly , the contents of my bacardi bottle mysteriously evaporated last night .
Whilst I cast my eyes over the Sunday lunch menu …. Mmhhhh …. spit roast Lib Dem canvasser or saute SNP candidate …. choices, choices …. I note the YouGov figures for job satisfaction are quite stark for both opposition leaders :
Our Gawd +40% .. Cammy -15% .. Minger -21%.
Clearly the punters, even English ones, prefer the son of the manse.
28 Debbie Harry on Andrew Marr - drool .
26.Test. If you want a prediction; by next week-end there will be a scramble to buy bank shares. If you can get Barlclays under 580 buy as many as you can afford. It’ll make you more money than any spread bet available at the moment!
Double Carpet. Well done. Some really interesting threads
6. GOM. having read the Mail article about Brown’s meeting with Thatcher is does seem that Cameron is a completely charmless individual and under the circumstances it was a nice gesture by Gordon.
I can understand why Cameron didn’t want to be seen with Thatcher-it would have had a significance that it didn’t with Brown-but that’s what leadership is about. Do what’s right not what seems expedient. In the end it’s important to be a human being.
29 Mark. It appears that your bacardi “evaporated” into Ms Harry !!
I bank with Barclays!
If the housing market goes so does the govt.
NHS, police, housing - it’s all downhill from here for Lab.
31 Jack , I wish LOL .
32 - “If the housing market goes so does the govt.” Was not the case in 1992.
Tony Lit: hasn’t he already rejoined his chums in the Labour party.
David Owen: I remember Gang of Four member Bill Rodgers intimating (in 1990) that the reason he Jenkins and Williams never fully saw eye to eye with Owen, was that Owen was a Cambridge man, whereas the other three went to Oxford. I see Rodgers has been having a go at Ming this weekend.
another voice of gratitude to Paul for keeping the site active during Mikes hols. In life there are always grumblers, very often people who do nothing else. Again thanks.
Interesting piece by Rawnsley but slightly OTT. No one thinks they’ll need a taxi but unless Ming bucks up they could have to trade the Coach for a Minibus
“Cameron needs a good conference, which he can best achieve by going on the offensive.”
David Herdson [20]
Surely Cameron needs to be making friends rather than offending even more Conservatives. I in last couple of weeks he seems to have pi$$ed off Ancram, That deputy treasurer who I’d never heard of, Tax cutters, real environmentalists, Easy Jet, Mrs T,Lord Owen, The Governor of the BoE (deservedly in this case) etc., etc.
It does sound as if Gordon Brown is the only show in town.
Yes, congratulations and thanks to Paul. This is the only site I know that gives a multi party view of politics, links to anything remotely topical, interesting or some distance from the wall. It also manages to attract a wide variety of contributors ptp’s tips Jack’s quick wit and SeanT’s obsessions.
Mike and Paul’s (and even Sean Fear’s) thoughtful and always interesting “leaders” even when apparently ignored manage to set themes and directions to what has become an essential part of my day.
Without PB I would not have known about ConHome - always a source (or do I mean sauce?) of pleasure as they tear each other apart!
I think that this issue will dominate the Lib Dem conference, driven by the media:-
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6997145.stm
Matt.
39 - I agree, the more adamant people are to remain leader, the less long they last…. Thatcher, Ceaucescu, IDS, Charles Kennedy
40 Where those Chairmen are would be interesting. It would not be surprisng if say the Surrey Heath and Liverpool West Derby Chairmen were dissatisified, but uninteresting. It would be interesting and alotogether worrying for them if say the Chairmen of Taunton and Chesterfield were upset
I don’t like the Lib Dems, but I feel a little uneasy about how the media can do a hatchet job on a party - you can see it coming.
It could be a disaster for the Liberals and I’d rather it be ‘justified’ on policy etc.
Do I feel sorry for the Lib Dems? - no, but I know that the media can do this to us as well… and it’s wrong.
Ming is toast, but it may be a long and painful extraction.
Matt.
28 Since you seem to live and breathe Burke’s peerage let’s set you a challenge. What is the oldest ennobled family in the direct male line of descent. Bet that’ll take you a few hours……
37. I was actually meaning that Cameron ought to go onto the offensive against Labour. I thought that was fairly clear, so can only assume that you either didn’t read it or quoted selectively as a hook to hang a cheap shot on (can you hang hooks?).
If there’s one thing that will bring the conference together it’s having a go at Gordon. As Cameron’s finding out, it’s always easier to knock the other lot than to propose alternatives.
One problem with the poll is that the gap has shrunk since the last one from The Times. So it rather does indicate that the best of the Brown bounce is over, unless something miraculous happens over the coming months. That’s the best scenario - the worst is that this overstates Labour’s support.
Brown should have called an election as soon as he became leader. If he had believed in himself and recognised he’d get a bounce, he’d have probably done well (at worst maybe not losing too many seats, at best even getting some more). Now he has a problem as to whether he could hold on to his current majority if he calls an election - the hope of getting another landslide has surely gone.
How can Cameron go on the offensive against Labour? His Shadow Chancellor has already said that he will follow Labour’s spending policies for at least 3 years.
The fact that this may mean higher taxes from a Conservative government has understandably upset a few “natural” Tory supporters, let alone failed to excite the undecided voter.
Matt (39). Unlike yourself, I think it would be excellent if the media started to pick up on this….
“The rich have done “too well” under Labour, Liberal Democrat leader Sir Menzies Campbell has said. He told BBC One’s The Andrew Marr show his tax policies would help 90% of the population and the gap between rich and poor had become “too great”.”
Cameron and his Tories don’t have a thing to say about this aspect of the disintegration of our society, do they? They can’t have.
And Brown and his chum Blair have been responsible for making the unhealthily rich even richer in the lifetime of this Labour Government.
The problem for the Lib Dems is that too many of our media luvvies are among the grossly overpaid. So reporting will hardly be balanced. You are right on that, Matt.
Paul, well done, and many thanks.
14
‘Test you seem to be missing the point, (perhaps in denial) it doesn’t matter how bad things seem to get, there is no sign the voters are turning to the Cameron Conservatives for salvation.’
Lets wait until we have some polls that have been conducted after the current finacial collapse and the further spread of foot & mouth due to government underfunding of their research laboratory at Pirbright.
One recent statistic that has surfaced since the financial collapse, is that this government is now borrowing more than Italy,that really takes some doing!
An economy that’s built on house price inflation and record personal and government debt.
In fairness to Cameron, this poll does show a reasonable improvement in his approval rating (IIRC, it was just 27% last month).
46 For the next three years i.e 2007-2010. Assuming a GE in 2009 in practice this binds them for one year. Anyway incoming Govts are virtually always bound by the spending plans and decisions of their predecessors for their inaugural year. It takes time to get your own priorities upand running. Always read the small print
46. Brown followed Tory plans from 1997-9; that didn’t stop Blair from criticising John Major’s government. Following the previous government’s spending plans for two years or so is usually a sensible policy as plans will already be in place for the money and it will cause substantial disruption to alter them at such short notice. The only time it’s justified is when the plans are so far out of line with the needs of the economy that the disruption is justified - as was the case in 1979.
There is loads to criticise Labour on - pensions, the inefficies of public sector spending, the Human Rights agenda, ID cards, an education system that pretends that everyone is passing when employers cannot get school leavers with adequate skills, the lipservice paid to the environment as cover for stealth taxes, ever more centralised control of councils, schools and hospitals via ‘advice’ and ministerial dictat, the overstretch in the armed forces, the mess that is the devolution settlement, strikes in the post office, threatened strikes by nurses, threatened strikes across a whole swathe of other areas of the public sector - despite the increase in funding, Europe, the lack of a referendum on the replacement EU treaty, muddle in the transport network. And Iraq.
It’s not difficult when you don’t have to suggest alternatives.
21
The Labour Party in the 80’s was a total mess, it needed shock treatment, ‘the split’ was the shock. I can’t think of anyone whom I’d less like sitting next to me on a long flight, than David Owen, but he is the father of New Labour, New Labour is the SDP in all but name. What Cameron is trying to do, but will fail, with out a similar experience, (a split) is create another SDP in all but name.
When John Redwood produced his report, he said, (in essence) ‘Big airports are really good for the economy.’ The ink was hardly dry, when up pops, Gumsmith, and says, ‘Big airports are really bad things’ Then Gumsmith is on the tele, saying that both reports are saying the same thing: is there no wonder Labour are ahead in the polls!
Peter Hitchens is right about the Tory party, ( the long flight analogy applys to him, double plus) its now a nonsense: it has no cohesion, no purpose, split, get it over with, let’s see what it produces.
[52] David Herdson wrote it’s not difficult when you don’t have to suggest alternatives (criticising the government, that is) - indeed not. Neither is it statesmanlike. There could be a trap here - rabble-rousing the faithful may be counter-productive in terms of a media narrative, particularly since David admits, by inference, that Labour’s economic management isn’t “far out of line with the needs of the economy”.
I think we can all agree that things are slipping away from the Tories. They had a month of solid publicity gaving them a tiny boost which then faded then faded and Labour now continue their inexorable climb…..
Anyone reading ConHome can see how their confidence has been shot. Their comments section is give quite an insight into how the Party are doing. Cameron always has his critics but I’m not talking about them. It’s the ‘others’! The “Ultras”. The’it’ll be alright on the nighters’! They sound shattered……..
I think we could be looking at another IDS moment’
55. idiot
55 - “I think we can all agree…” Speak for yourself, old bean, you pretty always do.
But I’m sure you’re actually a Tory Branch Chairman, the genial pipe-smoking variety from, say, a village close to Arundel, with two ageing cocker-spaniels yapping around your desk as you compose this awesomely wondrous satirical stuff
With Brown at a likely high watermark I’m still considering the possibility of an election before the end of the year. Apart from the chancer’s route of trying to run an election alongside the Euro election anything else leaves Brown to events and they are coming thick and fast and show no signs of stopping.
Looking at the labour sites it appears that their fears over Brown are now starting to bite, in particular the sight of Thatcher with Brown has caused ructions. To even think about Owen back in labour will give many more pause for thought. Add to that a rebellious union movement and the seeds of division are being set.
In trying to negate his opponents Brown has endangered his own party, you can see a parallel with Cameron and it’s amazing that Brown has gone down the same route. You make your supporters feel good because of those you attack, but you anger the less supportive by your lack of thought about them.
So there you go, it’s surprising but unavoidable - Brown is the new Cameron.
John Redwood is by far the most impressive financial commentator currently from any party. See his blog John Redwood’s Diary for confirmation.
Osborne and he looked good working as a pair. Age and experience combo with youth and energy. If Cameron keeps that double act in the front line, the Party will benefit. As the Brown prudence line starts to wear thin, people are in the market for a bit of stability and reassurance. Redwood’s week combined with good Conservative gains in the polls.
57. The Tories need a few more like you JohnO to lighten the mood.
Can’t you cheer them up with one of your famous one-liners?
“Cameron’s heading for a landslide” or similar
55 words fail me……..why do you bother?
55. Actually it’s the “ultra”conservatives, to borrow the term from the French Revolution, that are the ones that most want to drag Cameron to the Right and protest any hint of moderation as ideological impurity.
Regarding Ming, I didn’t think the Lib Dems could abandon the centre-ground but he seems to be doing so. Environmental “radicalism”, tax those damn rich people - he’s simply appealing to the hardline lib dem activists.
Regarding the topic, I’m tempted to say that as YouGov recorded Lab leads five points higher than anyone else the Cons are neck and neck with them. It actuality thats bollocks. YouGov doesn’t weight its votes and could be all over the place. We can’t say anything from this.
Regarding the SDP split. While I understand the arguments that it both made Labour change and also strengthened the far left’s control, I think there’s a key factor that never gets mentioned. The SDP split removed all hints of liberalism from the Labour party. Anybody who’s naturally centrist in any party tends to be liberal in the broader sense, because that’s whats needed to tolerate other people’s points of view. However, with them removed, when the remnants of Labour finally became centrist, it was not in a liberal direction. These were people who became centrist on adopting planks of Thatcherism, but they still maintained all the authoritarianism of the left. Thus you have the “moderates” as people like Blair who believes you can go to war on moral evangelism, Brown who thoroughly detests anyone who disagress with him, and a party that backs removing safeguards on public databases, ID cards, genetic records on the non-guilty, hearsay evidence in court etc etc.
This was the real crime of the SDP - causing a party to become centrist enough to govern without any sentiment of protection of the individual.
62. No - the real crime of the SDP (& Liberals) was not to consign Labour to the dustbin of history when they had a golden chance to do so in the early 1980s.
63 I think it has been pointed out they were undone by the ultimate political deus ex machina the Falklands War. Had it not been for that they would almost certainly have outpolled Labour at least in votes, and probably secured a significant tranche of Seats
OT perhaps:
Lottery sales for yesterdays main draw were £3.58m That is 27% down on the previous Saturday and 25% down on the average sales of the previous 5 (non roll over) Saturdays.
As holidays are ending I would have expected sales to increase in September (last years figures are not available). But perhaps the financial panic is leading people to stop spending on unnecessary things.
If so the next few weeks may see a retail collapse as well as a bank crisis.
Sell Retailers and Banks (that means you Roger!)
DC well done on minding the shop
55: If you are going to propagandise at least do us the courtesy of doing it well.
Redwood and Osborne - Gummer and Goldsmith. What is it with these Tory pairings - If you add Daddy’s money to a first rate loon I am not sure you get an irresistible electoral force.
Perhaps its just me?
re 8, better still don’t just paste the link into your post but use a tag.
e.g. to if the URL was http://www.politicalbetting.com you would add
before the link with the corresponding closing tag after it.
I think it’s a little harsh to call Gummer a first rate loon.
Nick P. Why do the think the polling numbers are so bad on the NHS? One reason because that most people will know someone who works for the NHS and most of them will be mouthing off at how crap it is thanks to Gordon and his half inflation pay rise. A strike may have been averted this year, but he won’t get away with it again. If you think morale in the Northern Rock staff association is bad try asking an NHS staff member how they feel.
Paul: for the record, I think you’ve done a stellar job. Thanks very much.
Icarus @ 65 re lottery — your figures are clearly wrong.
re 43. That’s a doddle it’s Lord Kingsale created 1223 - I went to college with him. A New Zealander. His father (who was born posthumously) inherited the title from a fifth cousin.
74 Well done, but actually was testing for the direct Father to Son line. Skipping to Cousins at some point is cheating………………
62.”Regarding Ming, I didn’t think the Lib Dems could abandon the centre-ground but he seems to be doing so. Environmental “radicalism”, tax those damn rich people - he’s simply appealing to the hardline lib dem activists.”
Interesting post tjm, or he could be trying to woo back those that drifted back to Labour in the recent months since Blair’s departure.
Many thanks to Paul for doing a great job running PB.com in Mike’s absence.
I am a Liberal Democrat who is watching and waiting for the magnificent Ming to slay all before him.
62 SDP - partially correct. Yes some old fashioned liberals with a small “L” left the party, but that seriously damaged the electoral balance within the party.
However the SDP was seriously authoritarian, it certainly knew what was best for people - it was the Smug Democratic Party and I notice some of the most statist ideas in New Lab have come from old SDP’ers.
The point remains, that those of us that stayed could have done with the support of those that jumped ship, particularly 1981 - 1983, which is when the Left established its power bases.
Incidentally, given what people say about his lack of principle, Blair chose to stay when the Party’s prospects were really poor
76 He could be simply trying to generate media coverage by upping the rhetoric. Difficult fr them media wise with the GB/DC double Act. If he is, he is running a risk of reviving the beards and sandals image in the public mind that has lethal implications in Southern England. I think he should start dialling down the class war rhetoric now
Well done Paul Maggs for doing a grand job.
20. I disagree, David Herdson, Cam has to do more that going negative at this stage. Electors must be entirely confused, after the policy review process, about what the conservative party stands for. According to the opposition whip who sometimes pops up on the site (sorry Nick Palmer I was out when he replied to my question the other evening, I noticed he did reply eventually, and you responded) this is all fine and dandy, and the electors will happily await the manifesto which will come along in due course.
I doubt that people are that patient.
In spite of the conservatives’ difficulties I hope that Gordon plays it long. I think there will be loads of interesting stuff announced at Conference and immediately afterwards, and Labour’s big beasts are just getting started, for example a superb speech from Alan Johnson on health inequalities the other day - http://tinyurl.com/3yptgk
78 Alternately you could argue Labour in 1981-1983 still had a solid bedrock of support and while on hard times a young ambitious MP might see better opportunities for advancment with them than another party which may have required a long political apprenticeship before any chance to become prominent
81 - had Blair first been elected in 1979, I am sure he would have left for the SDP in 1981.
80. You seem to be trying to say that this strategy will be disaster for the Conservatives, but a success for the Labour party.
Paul, I just wanted to say well done for minding the shop whilst Mike was away.
On another note, I suspect Yougov is at the top end of Labour’s polling right now. That does not mean that the poll is wrong, just that other polsters will have Labour between 2 and 5 points lower.
26.
My own favourite on ‘Not flash. Just Gordon’ is ‘No policy, just not Tony’ which pretty much sums up the past two and a half months. Once parliament is back in session Gordon will find it very difficult to sustain support based on vacuous photo-ops.
Re 3, Silver Surfer, “As for other oldies I see David Owen might be re-joining Labour. What a joke. No Labour person should have any truck with that b*stard who seems to have spent his entire life ruining the political parties he has been associated with. Look at the damage he did to Labour in the early 80s and then he went on to undermine the Lib Dems a few years later.
This guy is pure poison. Gordon should keep well away.”
You hold him in much higher regard that I do
John L - Sorry not the turnover but the size of the Jackpot, which is dependent on the turnover. I think the argument stands.
85.Afleitch, I agree.
Brown has been following his carefully plotted strategic grid since his coronation, IMHO it started to look out of step with events a few weeks ago. As Mike and others have pointed out he might be a great tactician for a campaign. But he lacks that natural empathy, political astuteness and confidence which allowed someone like Blair, to react to a change of events by reading the public mood and changing the script without hesitation.
Amazing how all the Lib Dems here manage to ignore the bad press they are getting today.
Icarus @ 87 — lottery sales were slightly up compared with the previous Saturday. The jackpot was down because lots of people had those numbers — five jackpot winners, plus all the three, four and five numbers winners to be paid out.
That said, I too have in the past used the lottery sales figures as a proxy for the real economy. You really need to do a rolling average though because rollovers have a massive influence on sales. Last Wednesday’s sales were well down compared with the rollover week before.
Have a look at this unofficial site for sales figures but beware they are calculated from the prize payouts because that Camelot stopped releasing sales numbers several years ago, probably because they showed Camelot in a poor light.
http://www.national-lottery.org.uk/
83. Exactly. From a party political point of view, I hope that Cam goes negative. He will simply look petty and useless and the commentators will all say, “but what do you stand for, Dave?”. Gordon will look even more of a statesman.
Can the Tories cobble together a coherent set of policies within the next couple of weeks? Maybe they will have no alternative but to go into attack mode. And all that will do is to reinforce their political base – the opposite of what they set out to do.
(Party politics aside, one might say that it is better if the opposition could get themselves organised and provide the electorate with a genuine alternative, though).
91.
‘cobble together a set of coherent policies’ ?
That’s what the summer policy review has set out to do. The question should be, what are Labour’s policies, other than building homes on floodplains, closing down A&E and no referendum? What will Labours policy, under Gordon, be on education? Continue the Blair/Cameron backed reforms or roll them back? What does he intend to do with hospital structuring and resolving the debt crisis and staff issues? What exactly is Gordon’s welfare and anti-poverty policy? What is his policy on the environemt? On tax? What is Labour’s policy on anything since Gordon came to power?
Answers on a postcard please
92 “Thats what the summer policy review has set out to do” and failed dismally , with some policy proposals so laughable they were quicky dropped and others which just raised the blood pressure of many longstanding Conservative members .
AVE ITTTTTTTTTTTTT!
Super Hendo
Watford championes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
89 - I wouldn’t say I have been ignoring it. In fact at post 40 I think I have added to it.
55:
Is this ‘Roger’ character for real?
93.
I disagree - much of it has been welcomed. Not every item produced was supposed, or even designed to be adopted, but was designed to facilliate discussion. Again I ask, what have Labour formally proposed to do on the issues I indentified ?
97 Labour are the government , they do not need to formally propose anything on the issues you identify . They need to react and solve any crisis that comes along and present to Parliament in the next Queens Speech their policies and priorities for the next year .
98.
So at the next general election, it is acceptable for the Labour Party to propose..nothing? The difference is, reactive or not I knew what Labour stood for under Blair. I haven’t the foggiest what Brown wants to do and I have a sneaking suspicion neither does he.
re 96. Don’t knock Roger who is a PBC institution.He’s big time movie producer who earns so much that he only needs to work a dozen days a year.
He has all this money, so much time and he gets very bored - so he comes to the site to wind up the Tories. It’s all good clean fun because somebody falls for it every-time.
At the moment he still hasn’t got over the departure of Blair who he really reached hated - even more than Tories. So because the Scot Brown is not Blair he has fallen madly madly in love. Everything Brown does gets him all excited.
It won’t last. He used to love Blair once.
99 No of course that will not be the case at the next GE , then all the parties will publish manifestos and detailed policies for the following 4/5 year Parliament .
Thanks, Paul. Appreciate all the work you’ve put in.
(I thought they said ‘eucharisto’- pronounced ‘efkharisto’ in Greece?)
99. Considering how recently Brown took over, a great deal has already been announced. If you could bother to read my posts properly you’ll see that Alan Johnson has just made a major speech on health policy.
Housing has been the subject of major announcements by Brown and you can see the housing green paper here:
http://tinyurl.com/ythc4v
Expect more major announcements next week, starting with Alistair Darling’s speech a week today and Gordon’s a week on Monday.
Party conferences are where politicians set out their stalls – geddit?
Labour will have plenty to say at their conference – Dave, as far as I can see, will not.
Alastair Darling’s speech a week today!
Lol. Looking forward to that one.
100:
Silver Surfer, thank you for your explanation of the extraordinary ‘Roger’. I genuinely wondered if he was a serious contributor or some sort of post-modern experiment in deepest irony. I now see that he’s something of a politicalbetting.com curiosity - a court dwarf, a mascot, a zany - existing only for our amusement and delight. I look forward to his next posting. I’m sure it will be most entertaining.
Now today should be interesting..an election result but no doubt people will still be arguing over Thatcher turning up at No.10 or some such irrelevancy…
On an election in 2007. I have had wiser heads than me insist that 2007 is out and have not put money on it..but still something nags. Not least if the Tories stop their suicide mission and actually do some opposition what good news is on the horizon for Gordon in 2008?
From what I can see, not a lot. If it isnt this year or early 2008 (March-April cut off) then surely its going seriously long.
I’m heavily weighted on 2009 & 10 with a very very small profit on the 2008 possibilities. More a stake saver than anything.
103. “Labour will have plenty to say at their conference” I await their comments on the state of the economy and the mountain of debt, especially if Brown or Darling start to lecture the Banks or public on their behaviour.
107.
The government is in spin mode already - if theres any downturn based on unstable debt, it’s OUR fault remember
Silly Pot (89)…. Lib Dems are getting GOOD publicity. Better go back to your silver-plated ivory tower….
The party that people are giving up on is the Conservative Party (and Unionist? - I can’t remember… But the Tories are not really relevant anyway. They did hopelessly in this week’s bye-elections, didn’t they?)
108. Afleitch, if they start lecturing us, maybe we should ask them to open up the governments debt portfolio, on and off balance sheet?
96 I’m sure he is real and he adds to the gaiety of this site
108. And they are partially correct, it is the fault of a poor credit system or a decent one used wrongly. The problem for government is that they do have some regulatory control and chose not to use it. That could be because the basic system is pretty sound and people have just made bad decisions both consumers and business.
The more pertinent issue is whether government themselves have been making the most of the good times themselves and not preparing for the rainy day and thus made bad decisions. On that score they might have a case to answer in due course but we await to see what happens.
62 - I think there is something in tjm’s argument - not so much in personality terms, but in the channels of thought within Labour. The key architects of New Labour were strongly influenced by the non-liberal left-wing currents within the party during their formative years - with the struggles of the Kinnock years, with their factions and cliques, playing an important role in the way policy is implemented.
But I think John Wheatley’s too harsh on the SDP members. The left didn’t just spring to prominence under Foot; they’d been growing in influence and organising from the late 1960s onwards, particularly in CLPs. The right were on the back foot because their ability to see off the left had been based on the ability of the leadership to see off the NEC and the support of trade union bosses. After 1979, that was no longer reliable, and none of the rival right-wing parliamentary and grassroots organisations could match the left. There was tremendous strain on those Labour MPs who did join the SDP. Had they not, they could have been picked off one by one by reselection or simply found themselves marginalised in the way the left were marginalised in the Gaitskell years.
Besides, a great proportion of SDP support, particularly among voters, came from people who were outside traditional Labour culture - people like Rosie Barnes being good examples. It’s extremely unlikely that many of them would have chosen a Foot-led party (or a Healey-led party in civil war with a vengeful left) over the SDP when it came to the crunch.
107. If you want an example of “lecturing” than note John Redwood’s ill-informed and bizarre attack on the Bank of England which can be found here: http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com.
He mysteriously refers to Bank as “the authorities” and doesn’t seem to understand that it’s independent now. The Vulcan rides again…
114.”He mysteriously refers to Bank as “the authorities” and doesn’t seem to understand that it’s independent now.” Is it?????
114 “He mysteriously refers to Bank as “the authorities” and doesn’t seem to understand that it’s independent now. The Vulcan rides again…”
are you seriously suggesting the BOE is independent? A ridiculous statement. as the chief exec of NR stated today when referring to the emergency loan “that’s why the BOE, the Treasury and chancellor made this facility available” no mention of an independent BOE
brown changed the rules on what inflation measure to use when it no longer suited his needs. the BOE is no more independent than it was before, just a cynical blurring of the lines of responsibility so brown could try and evade responsibility if anything went wrong.
114.
The Treasury has also attacked the BoE as mentioned earlier on this thread. Whatever the reasons, don’t pretend its purely a one sided partisan attack.
116.It has been Macivity Brown’s crowning con trick thus far.
117. When and where have the Treasury attacked the BoE?
114 next you will be telling us that browns use of PFI is something other than a criminal deception. PFI was meant to introduce market discipline into government spending not to hide mountains of future liabilties off balance sheet.
Brown Bounce continues to look pretty stable, if unspectacular. I can’t help but wonder, if so many people are satisfied with Brown’s perormance, over Cameron and Ming, why aren’t Labour cosistently polling in double figures?
The other thing I’m wary of, is that YouGov have tended to give Labour the biggest leads, compared to MORI, CR and Populus. If 5% is the best lead Labour gets out of this next round of conference polls, then its fair to say the Tories are well and truely back in the game.
Once Conference season is out of the way, its back to Westminster and politics will really get going again. Its going to be a fascinating winter.
116. You are challenging the fact that the BoE is, in fact, independent? I think we are in the realm of flat-earthers here.
Even the Vulcan, in slightly saner mood, accepts that reality, and even - rather grudgingly - accepts that it was right to make it independent. To quote from his competitiveness report.
“Gordon Brown’s early decision to make the Bank of England the independent judge of interest rates, with the creation of the Monetary Policy Committee, was an idea whose time had come. It has been welcomed by all political parties and the business community…”
122. Why does the Chancellor have to authorise the BoE in its move to bail out Northern Rock?
122 the MPC deals with interest rate settings and thats it. even their independence is open to debate given what has unfolded. the MPC didnt grant the loan to NR did they?
123 I dont know either, but he was involved according to the Chief exec of NR. i suspect he was involved due to the political ramifications of the loan NOT being granted.
Greece exit poll ERT
ND 42.2
PASOK 38.5
KKE 7.5
SYRIZA 5.0
LAOS 3.5
122. I think that John Redwood argues his point more fully here…..
http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/2007/09/10/city-doubts-about-the-bank-of-england/#comments
123/125 - The Chancellor was involved because there was a memorandum of understanding entered into when the FSA was formed (since there is division of responsibility on matters of financial stability between the Treasury, Bank and FSA).
When memorandum establishes among other things that when the Bank seeks to invoke its role as lender of last resort, this must be authorised by the Chancellor. It would be a bold (and I think completely wrong) Chancellor who second guessed the Bank on this sort of thing though.
126. They all have initials that makes them look like they are some guerilla groups from the 70s…..
… indeed!
Looks like my betting tip of ND -1.75% is in too.
7.
“Lord Owen is thinking of rejoining the Labour Party.”
In the words of post-Falkland Margaret:
“Rejoice, I say…Rejoice!!”
As Roy Jenkins said of the Liberal Democrats:
“The future of our party will be best served if our discussions can be held without rancour.”
128.. So the BoE isnt that independent then, which is the entire point.
The idea that it could be independent is a joke because of the nature of what it does. No central bank is actually ‘independent’.
It quite simply can’t be. Operational independence over interest rate setting is it, it totality. That is a limited independence and a good one but limited all the same, especially since the context in which they work within is set by government and can be changed by government.
On another note. There is a story that Northern Rock may not be taken over as going concern but instead its assets ie its loans flogged off. In short it could be nationalised for a period of wind down and a fire sale result. A big run this week on the bank both in stockmarket and customer withdrawal terms could make this the likeliest option.
For those considering buying NR shares (including me) its time to maybe think of something else to do with the money if this is becoming a serious option rather than just focus on trying to buy at the best possible price.
For those who have bought NR shares earlier hoping for a gain from a takeover, you would have a problem if this happens.
130. I stayed clear of backing on it. The more I got into it the more complicated I found it.
By the way we could declare a virtual election night party..Ouzo and kebabs…not sure I could handle the kebabs though, I’ve just had an Ulster Fry.
why would anyone want to buy a massive mortgage book, unless at hugely discounted value, at this point in the property cycle? the brand name is destroyed as of now so youve just got a boring branch network. the value would accrue to an institution that could inject cash and stabilise/lower the cost of its funding. given all banks are facing liquidity problems at the moment this may not be that atrractive. the problem with these banks, as youve seen in germany, is that their business models are rubbish and they can only make decent returns in perfect(rising property market)conditions.
i guess a private sector bailout is possible withy other UK banks injecting some equity and dividing up the assets between them, but no idea what price they would pay.
How the Daily Mash sees the, ‘Northern Rock thing’ which is not that different from some of the posters on this site.
http://tinyurl.com/2zn5a4
http://www.ekloges.ypes.gr/pages_en/index.html
is the official result map, coloured in as polling stations are counted - the communists lead in Zakynthou!
135. There you have it in a nutshell exactly why someone would want to buy a mortgage book..its at a discounted rate.
Northern Rock, ironically isnt suffering from issue & defaults from customers, apparently those are running at less than 1% so its still potentially good business.
It is indeed possible that Northern Rock’s mortgage book could be divided up and sold on with other major banks agtreeing to take a share of those. Whatever way you cut it though, its still a fire sale. Northern Rock would be shut not merely absorbed as a business and rebranded.
The interesting thing is the lack of strong stories so far about suitors to buy Northern Rock out as a business. This could be because suitors are sitting tight and letting the share price fall and desperation to sell the bank get even bigger or simply that no one is interested in buying it as a going concern.
The irony is the rumoured takeover prior to these issues that was blocked by the FSA & Treasury could have been a good proposition in retrospect.
re 121. There are two elements that pollsters introduce that have the affect of reducing Labour share in polls - they weight the sample by past voted or recorded party allegiance and they weight it by how certain respondents are likely to vote.
Ipsos-Mori does the latter but not the former
YouGov does the former but not the latter
ICM, Populus and ComRes do both.
ICM has not done a survey for nearly three weeks while Populus and ComRes came out a fortnight ago.
I think the message from all of them is that Labour are level-pegging or ahead but the party’s position is nothing like as strong as it was in August.
The other interesting aside for those who are looking at Northern Rock as an investment is whether the share price gets suspended to halt a run that would be fatal. Woulkd it actually allow breathing space or cause a greater reaction still?
137. There are still Communists somewhere?
I see some company called Singular Logic are getting some great publicity on that website..assuming it doesn’t crash…
138. NR break up implies big job losses - about 6000 people work for them, mostly in the NE. This is a financial Rover for Labour, potentially.
you are right about the underlying portfolio but i am sure most banks would be looking to reduce their proprty exposure in this environment. the markets have fundementally changed, normal rules dont apply, lets remember we are talking about a bank run in the UK here. that alone should tell everyone that something is seriously wrong within the system, not a time to increase risk.
142. How about bundling up all these NR mortgages into securities and selling them on to end investors - or has that been tried already?
142. How about bundling up all these NR mortgages into securities and selling them on to end investors - or has that been tried already?
143 they whole problem at NR is caused by over relience on securitisation and wholesale funding. there is no way out for them im afraid.
Looks like Blue total control in Greece!
Warm up for UK!!!!!!
60.
““Cameron’s heading for a landslide””
But how long would the queue be to dig him out?
141-142
I can understand both those and do not disagree with either.
The fact that there isnt a single suitor emerging suggests that that Northern Rock isnt, yet, a good enough propsoition under current circumstances hence the send it into administration of sorts and break up its assets option. I’m beginning to think that a single suitor will have to be buying at such a discount or indeed will be asking the government via the BoE to effectively subsiside the takeover in such a big way that a deal would be difficult unless the government gets so desperate as to decide it cant let Northern Rock be broken up and shut at any price.
The other banks however have an imperative and thats their own share prices. There has been follow on to banking shares. A potentially rapid way of killing off the high level & just as important highly visible of bearish sentiment in the financial markets is to be part of this packaging up and distribution of the mortgage book of Northern Rock. A kind of lets just tidy up after the collpase in as speedy and disciplined looking way as possible.
What they will worry less about is public sentinment. From a marketplace point of view Northern Rock is dead in the water but there hasnt been evidence so far of a run on banks in general. Thus the death of Northern Rock worries them not if the customer sentiment effect stays isolated. Their priority therefore is with their own stock price and finincial market reaction.
Man City 1 Villa 0. But I made some money buying total corners.
121 I feel the same. If YouGov are showing 5% max it’ll be a major upset on past form if the others aren’t shwing either a tie, or a GB lead of 2-3% max
agree, its in everyones interest to sort it out asap. the real worry in my mind is that the markets will just move on to the next most exposed institution. would you put your money in anything other than one of the big 4 clearing banks at the moment? i certainly wouldnt. the authorities will be absolutely petrified that queues start forming outside B&B or A&L (or any other of these ex-building socs) on monday…..
150 Thanks again Paul. Take no notice of the naysayers, you did a fine job.
Also, for other banks the chances are that they hold much of the liabilities here because of Northern Rock’s way of securing finance means that some of them are exposed to the problems that Northern Rock is having.
At the monent they are getting paid on due date for any loans they have made to Northern Rock but in future it will only be because of the Bank of England. There is probably some loans going to be due and only paybale by BoE money.
Can that go on forever in the absence of a single suitor, its not good for anyone, so again a break up and parcelling of the mortgage book across a number of banks isnt probably too bad an option.
Everything as regards intervention by the Treasury and BoE is down to the banks. If Northern Rock isnt bought as a business then the intervention will perhaps be seen to have failed. Thus egg on the face of government may result if they are not careful.
How willing will a bank be to buy Northern Rock? Can one afford to? Is it a good business proposition in the first place? How desperate will government be to try to get it sold as a single unit and thus what are they prepared to agree to to make that happen or will they conclude its not worth it and be prepared to let Northern Rock shut?
139 Weren’t YouGov out of syn with others during the last Election campaign, before making an “adjustment” that brought them into line in the last days?
By the way, haven’t noticed Rik W or AH Matlock on here lately. All is well I hope ?
146. If you were to believe the opinion polls we would have been heading for hung parliament territory.
155 - no, we hear little of Rik W. Last time I remember him here he was “disenchanted”. His boss, Rob Wilson, got into a spot of bovver, for suggesting Mrs T was lonely and daft to go and visit Gordon.
Perhaps Rik W will follow his mentor David Owen back into Labour. Likewise Rob W…
(Only joking Rik…)
114:
Corporal Spaulding, the only thing ‘ill-informed and bizarre’ is your bitter little swipe at John Redwood. It’s a pity he’s not running the economy instead of mismatched eyebrows man. And if the Bank of England is so great how come, as noted by some posters above, the government’s henchmen are already starting their smear campaign against Mervyn King? Risible.
158 - John Redwood is very bright. But I wouldn’t even want him running my bath, let alone our economy. I would trust him with a small sandwich bar by a rural station, nothing more.
141 - I think job losses may be a worry for NE Labour MPs in the unlikely event of an October election. However its worth remembering that Labour’s majorities are bigger than the total workforce in practically every seat except City of Durham and Stockton South and most of NRs staff work on Tyneside.
The crisis is quite close to home for Labour, their Northern HQ is based in the same building as several departments of Northern Rock!
I see that By Election in Brent Central was good and not good for the Lib Dems. Good that they bumped up their vote on a Tory/Green squeeze. Not good the Labour vote relative unaffected. So while others maybe struggling to save deposits at next Election, it still looks uphill for the Lib Dems
if belgium doesnt have a government, as reported on BBC, how can they sign the EU constitution this year? will it save gordo?
As I understand it Northern Rock still have £150 billion loaned out and still have £25 billion of depositors money. In itself that makes it a viable concern. It’s problem-dare I say like the Tory Party-is that the brand is now trashed so without new customers a slow death is likely to follow. The same happened to Equitable. So not a good bet to buy but if the market starts going up banks are likely to be in the vanguard. They are still making vast profits and the PE of Barclays is down to 8
Greece update
5.9% of votes counted (439 thousand)
ND 45.4, Pasok 38.5, KKE 6.8, Syriza 3.8, Laos 3.1
Turnout 67% so far
Haven’t seen any seat projections yet - no districts have finished counting, Zakynthou leads with 20% of polling stations reported.
Markets: PM - Karamanlis 1/25, Papandreou 33/1; Vote share - ND minus 1.75% 1/25, Pasok +1.75% 11/1
162 - does the EU constitution need to get passed by the three constituent parts of Belgium? There hasn’t really been a central government in Belgium for many years.
164. I assume we don’t know whether there is a bias in the count numbers so far? ie are more votes counted in areas of strength Socialist or New Democracy.
I think Belgium does have a govt but’s it the outgoing caretaker one?
Might France get Wallonia while Flanders joins the Netherlands?
167 - fair enough. I’ve always found Flanders much nicer than the Netherlands. And Brussels could perhaps then be independent?
apparently they have no government at all and are in constitutional crisis. how funny would it be if Brussels was the reason the constitution fell apart?
Here’s the odd thing regarding Northern Rock.
There were takeover bids, but apparently a breaker was that the bank(s) interested wanted the BoE to be ready to support it with shiort term loans if there were difficulties in getting the cash required through the normal channels given money market conditions.
Treasury, FSA, BoE say no apparently. For a start, they’d be subsidising the sale in effect. If we are to believe the Sunday Times they feared that a takeover would upset sentiment, perhaps for that reason, perhaps some other reason.
So instead they ended up propping up Northern Rock with loans anyway.
Now, apparently, the Treasury has said that the loan facility extended to Northern Rock for an agreed period (tyhe period term remains confidential) would continue to be in place for any new owner. Once it goes however, at this time there is no guarantee that the term of such loans would be extended. Thus potential buyers are in the same position as before, they could take over Northern Rock but not be sure if they could get the cash to keep it solvent.
This decision to continue the emergency loan deal under the new owner is apparently is a bit of a U-turn as it was previous policy that if Northern Rock was taken over, the emergency loan status would be removed because in effect Northern Rock was no longer an independent institution and it was a whole new ball game.
Will the Treasury be willing to offer up guarantees of funding via the BoE for a bit longer to sweeten a deal and subsidise the sale? They already appear to have shifted over the current emergency loan terms.
More importantly who is calling the shots?
O/T - Jeremy Snape should never have played for England. He has barely ever commanded a county place. He should never have been made an assistant coach. Having got Flintoff pissed last winter, he should have been sacked and never let near the England establishment again… Christ, is he the best number seven we have for England in 20/20. Bring back Mark Ealham…
Obviously the way for a pollster to have it’s reputation trashed on here is to show Labour with a bigger lead than it had last time or to lead the field when a change of sentiment takes place. It’s happened to MORI then CR-who since giving the Tories their best result are the new gold standard-and Populus.
Now Yougov are getting the treatment. Apart from the Scottish elections their predictions have been pretty spot on. Why would a reputable company deliberately change their winning formula to one which is innacurate? It just doesn’t make sense. I suggest it’s time for us to accept the integrity of the pollsters or stop featuring them.
Actually I think Jeremy Snape is an analogy for the Tory party. The two classic parameters are form and class. Cameron had a good run in the polls. Was it form or class?
its public money so we know who is calling the shots. master tactician brown will be scheming and spinning behind the scenes
Greece - victory for ND is assure.
The ‘cradle of democracy’ leads the way!
FPP would be better tho - a bigger majority for ND!
By the way did anyone pitch in and buy Northern Rock shares early on the back of this problem?
171:
The assessment of his ‘Batting Sytle’ and ‘Bowling Style’ on his wikipedia entry perhaps says it all (I didn’t do it):
http://tinyurl.com/yoorku
172. Bullsh*t, fatuity, pomposity and faux outrage - it’s all been on offer from Roger in recent days. Fine entertainment indeed from the court jester (or less charitably, the king’s fool).
172 Roger ,There haven’t been any other Yougov predictions that can be shown to have been spot on since the last GE . You should ask Yougov why they changed their methodology from one that gave pretty accurate results at the last GE to weighting by Party ID .
I have never taken seriously anybody who doesn’t know “its” from “it’s”.
If you went to an independent school, Roger, time to ask for your money back. Perhaps we need a new regulatory body for that. In fact, perhaps we need a new regulatory body for regulatory bodies.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/6997547.stm
Lugovoi, the man who is suspected of killing the ex-KGB man Litvinenko, has joined the Liberal Democrats.
178. I can’t keep up with your name changes! It’s not your username that’s the problem.
179. Mark. I’d like to know myself. I can’t believe that a public company that is trying to grow it’s reputation would take such an apparently foolish step. Where did you hear about their new methodology?
Anyway perhaps Anthony can help?
180.SBS. You’re right my English is a disgrace!
181 - seriously, the LDPR are no allies of Putin. I have always felt that a Lugovoi / Putin plot was unlikely.
182 You can find details on their website on their methodology . Don’t forget with a panel , their method of polling is significantly different to the telephone pollsters who ask a random number of people their voting intentions including past vote and then weight by gender etc then past vote .
172: I have my doubts about YouGov because they have had been out of step with the other pollsters. So either all the other pollsters are wrong or YouGov are.
I see looking at the Greek national position that Dimokratiki Pagkosmios Ellas have one vote so far! (0.00% no seats)
I believe that translates into ‘Liberal Democrats’ in English.
Ming are you watching?
186 - or possibly the general public are wrong about their voting intentions come the next GE.
167 Might France get Wallonia while Flanders joins the Netherlands?
Do the Walloonies or Flemish get a say in the matter? Perhaps the Flemish would prefer to be separate from Netherlands. Perhaps that is why they split from the Netherlands in the first place.
180 I have never taken seriously anybody who doesn’t know “its” from “it’s”.
Funny, I have never taken seriously anybody who would make such a statement.
Do you pronounce h as “haitch” and Restaurant as “Resterornn”?
168 167 - fair enough. I’ve always found Flanders much nicer than the Netherlands. And Brussels could perhaps then be independent?
Why should a Flemish region not want to join Flanders?
You shouldn’t repeat everything Walloonies tell you.
191. Because Brussels is French-speaking?
As of about an hour ago, the latest on Northern Rock from the FT
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/39199b78-6489-11dc-90ea-0000779fd2ac.html:
122
‘You are challenging the fact that the BoE is, in fact, independent? I think we are in the realm of flat-earthers here.’
Can you remind us who selects the members of the monetary policy committee?
Surely even you must realise that the bailout of Northern Rock was a political descision forced on the BOE by Brown and Darling to save face.
179.Mark, did they change their methodology in the run up to the last GE, and then revert back to an old method, or had they been using the same methodology for a while prior to the GE but then decided to make this change??
re Northern Rock:
The problem with selling-off the book is that the margins from what remains still has to cover the overheads of the operation. Downward spiral time, I think.
Anyone see the Tour of Britain cycling on the television? The Liverpool to Kendal stage was well appreciated by the organisers, and the riders were met at the finish by Postman Pat (and Jess). They don’t have such celebs in France. (The real highlight was the tricycle race for 3 year olds, only 50 yards but they had great fun, before the big boys rode into town.)
Cumbrian Tories are in further disarray, thus no signs of any changes in Cumbrian seats at the next G.E., whether it be 07, 08, 09, or 10.
195 As far as I can make out their methodology in the run up to the last GE and prior to that was the same as others weighting to the past vote at the 2001 GE . They changed their methodology shortly after the 2005 GE but it is a bit unclear to me exactly when .
A new foot and mouth case, apparently. The third of the latest wave. Hm….
192 191. Because Brussels is French-speaking?
Is it?
Mind you, the French bureaucracy imposed on Brussels really iritates the people of said Flemish region.
“Can you remind us who selects the members of the monetary policy committee?
Surely even you must realise that the bailout of Northern Rock was a political descision forced on the BOE by Brown and Darling to save face.”
This kind of thing has always baffled me. SOMEBODY has to select them. If it’s not politicians, democratically elected, we’d have to select them by a form of election presumably. If not, somebody else would have to select them, and who would decide who that person would be! The argument goes on… I reckon rather than saying they are independent, which is impossible/impractical/ democratically undesirable, it would be better to describe them as more independent than they used to be.
198. Where?
187. Imbecile
200. Correct. They are not independent in the tru sense of the word. They simply have degrees of operational indepedence on certain issues.
On Northern Rock again. Page 2 of this Reuters article is interesting because of the possible FSA position, if it is as stated in the article.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/UKNews1/idUKL169575720070916
197.Thanks Mark, I have got to ask the question, why do you take a winning formula and then change it?
Greek Election Night thread now up.
Thanks
Double Carpet
203. I find this article in the FT interesting.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/760014ea-6475-11dc-90ea-0000779fd2ac.html
200
‘SOMEBODY has to select them’
Agree,but as long as they are being selected by the government let’s not pretend that it’s independent.
202 colin
F Off!
202 Imbecile
Yes. Plent of dimwits on this board these days.
ColonW and Roger playing usual suspects.
206. We should have answers to some questions in that article shortly. Not least the story is that the terms of the bail out will be released if the BoE is to be believed.
209 LOL
209. Why do posters change their usernames to be insulting? Why not have the courage of your convictions? No ones going to bite you!
207 Yes, that’s my point. Democratically, we wouldn’t want anybody else to select them. By allowing them to make the interest rate decision however they are further away from the control of the government, and in that sense have more independence.
212 Because they are cowards eho do not have the courage of their lack of conviction .
Yokel, genuine question rather than partisan point scoring, what do you think about the credibility of either the BoE or the FSA in the city if the Treasury is going to cherry pick bail outs for political reasons?
215.I then asked the question in a partisan way.
Try again, shouldn’t the credibility of the BoE and the FSA rest on their ability to set firm guidelines that will not be overturned within days by the government?
Terry Towel…
“Do you pronounce h as “haitch” and Restaurant as “Resterornn”? ”
Certainly not! There is no “h” in “aitch”.
I take it from your name that your actually want people to piss on you.